00:00 what does the labor market have in store
00:01 for us in 2024 we'll stick around
00:03 because in this video I'm going to share
00:04 with you my thoughts on what we could
00:06 expect to see in the coming
00:19 year hey everybody it's Brian from Life
00:21 After layoff and welcome to 2024 my last
00:24 video I talked about what happened in
00:26 2023 and I'm going to take that a step
00:28 further and now let's look at what we
00:29 can expect to see in 2024 and if you
00:32 want more content just like this
00:33 directly from a corporate recruiter to
00:35 assist you in your job search in 2024
00:38 make sure you hit that subscribe button
00:40 so what trends can we expect to see this
00:41 year in the job market well let's talk
00:44 about the big one is is it going to be a
00:46 good labor market for a job Seeker
00:48 unfortunately I think we're going to see
00:49 a slow and steady decline in the amount
00:51 of jobs that are posted and in
00:53 particular the good quality jobs so
00:55 let's take a look at some of the data
00:56 now this particular chart shows the
00:58 hiring or employment rate over the last
01:00 20 or so years and we can see some
01:02 interesting things on this chart in 2026
01:04 this is right before the subprime crisis
01:06 the real estate crisis that happened in
01:08 2028 we can see that there was a a
01:10 pretty massive decline in the number of
01:13 hires or hiring activity across all
01:15 Industries so it went from a a rate of
01:18 uh about 4.0 right before it and then
01:21 ended up at about a 2.8 so that's just
01:24 to kind of give you some historical
01:25 context as to what the standard rate has
01:29 been so after that event over the last
01:32 you know decade or so you see a steady
01:35 increase in the number of highers and of
01:37 course we get to the pandemic and things
01:40 go absolutely haywire and so you can see
01:43 that it jumps up all the way to
01:45 6.1% as we have a bunch of layoffs and
01:48 then a bunch of hiring that kind of
01:50 whiplashes right back this is the
01:51 pendulum that I talk about swinging back
01:54 forth right after that the market
01:56 obviously can't sustain these massive
01:58 whiplashes so there kind of was some
02:00 stabilization but you could still see a
02:02 lot of hiring activity in 2021 this is
02:04 the buyer Market this is the great
02:07 resignation all of these different
02:08 things that were happening during this
02:10 period of time it looks like the gravy
02:11 train ended in November of 2021 where we
02:15 4.6% and then there's been a slow and
02:17 steady decline since then of hires we
02:21 can also extrapolate it as the number of
02:22 job postings that are also being
02:24 published during the same period of time
02:26 but as you can see it's been a slow and
02:27 steady decline over the last year or so
02:30 now this chart only goes through
02:31 September of 2023 but the trend has
02:34 continued to go downward so I'm
02:36 expecting to see a decrease to somewhere
02:39 3.5% as we saw through much of the last
02:42 decade so we still have a little bit of
02:43 retracement left to go and that's going
02:45 to mean that there's going to be fewer
02:46 job postings and unfortunately fewer
02:48 jobs throughout the next year however
02:50 the good news is is that even though
02:51 we're going to see less hiring I also
02:53 think that we're going to see less
02:54 layoffs overall now here's an
02:56 interesting stat on layoffs that I found
02:58 to be surprising the layoff rate is
03:00 actually historically low right now and
03:03 it doesn't feel that way for most of us
03:05 who' have gone through 2022 and 2023 and
03:08 experienced a lot of these layoffs
03:09 ourselves but the numbers don't lie
03:10 we're actually at a lower layoff rate
03:12 than we were pre pandemic of course
03:14 there's been some spikes throughout 2023
03:16 you can see on this chart that there's a
03:18 spike up in the latter quarter uh which
03:20 probably reflects the the kind of the
03:22 runup of layoffs that we saw heading
03:24 into the final couple of months of the
03:26 year the fact is is that 2022 and most
03:28 of 2023 still stayed below the average
03:31 of 1.2% so I think that we're going to
03:33 continue to see layoffs be relatively
03:35 low I think companies have kind of
03:37 figured out where they want to be with
03:39 total headcount we're just going to see
03:41 less hiring and so a lot of the
03:43 attrition that we'll see won't be
03:44 through forced attrition but it'll
03:46 actually be somebody quitting and then
03:48 just them not backfilling the role and
03:50 as an extension of that and I mentioned
03:51 this in the last video I still think
03:53 that we're going to see a continuation
03:55 of these short-term assignments contract
03:57 roles part-time jobs seasonal work that
04:00 sort of thing I think you're going to
04:01 see companies that will continue to be
04:02 less committal they don't have to pay
04:04 your benefits in some cases they're
04:06 getting away with paying you less money
04:08 and they're replacing people with
04:10 cheaper options and we've seen a lot of
04:12 that happen over the last year so as we
04:14 continue to move into this year pay
04:15 attention to the types of jobs a lot of
04:17 times these companies would eliminate a
04:19 position and then repost it a few months
04:21 later as a contract role or maybe as a
04:24 lower level position where they're kind
04:26 of down Skilling so that they can pay
04:27 less for the job thinking like
04:29 recruiters for example there was a lot
04:31 of really great recruiting jobs that
04:33 were in 2021 through the beginning part
04:35 of 2022 and you kind of couldn't trip
04:37 out your front door without Landing over
04:39 a great offer but it seems like most of
04:41 those jobs have dried up and now they're
04:43 being replaced with contract positions
04:45 that are paying you know 60% of what the
04:48 previous rate was so a lot of these
04:50 people who had kind of adjusted to a
04:52 certain lifestyle you know suddenly
04:54 found themselves with a pretty serious
04:56 pay cut and now they have to adapt to it
04:58 keep a pulse on what's going going on
04:59 and I unfortunately I think that we're
05:01 going to continue to see this play out
05:03 as we go deeper into 2024 and keeping
05:05 right in line with that unfortunately I
05:06 think that we're going to continue to
05:07 see downward salary pressure so these
05:10 big raises that we people got accustomed
05:13 to in 2021 kind of seem like they're a
05:16 thing of the past you look at the data
05:17 on this one you see that posted wages
05:19 are growing faster than prices which is
05:21 good however the wage growth overall is
05:24 slowing down significantly over 2023
05:27 most of 2022 into 202 3 and
05:30 unfortunately I think that this is going
05:31 to be a continued Trend throughout 2024
05:34 the variable here is going to be the
05:36 inflation rate as you can see on this
05:37 chart in 2021 in 2022 you saw wages
05:41 marketly higher and way above even the
05:44 inflation that the runaway inflation
05:46 that we experienced because it was a
05:47 very competitive labor market everybody
05:49 was looking to hire the best they were
05:51 kind of feeding frenzy and that was a
05:54 jobseeker as we hit the peak of 2022
05:58 2021 into 202 2 we started to see
06:01 inflation continue to climb but we we
06:03 hit that Pinnacle or the crescendo and
06:05 we started to head down and it's been a
06:06 slow and steady decrease in wage growth
06:10 over the last 18 months or so but it
06:12 looks like for the most part over the
06:14 2023 wages seem to have outpaced
06:16 inflation because inflation has
06:19 apparently dipped it doesn't feel like
06:20 it when I go to the grocery store but
06:22 apparently uh inflation has dipped but I
06:24 wonder where these numbers will track as
06:25 we head into the first and second
06:26 quarters of this year I kind of expect
06:28 to see jump in inflation again as we get
06:31 into election year and they kind of
06:33 loosen some things up or interest rates
06:35 and all that kind of stuff and with
06:37 wages continuing to go down it's again
06:39 it's it's a employer buyer Market they
06:42 have their choice of people I think
06:44 you're going to see it kind of cross
06:45 lines here and unfortunately it's not a
06:48 great thing if you're an a job Seeker in
06:49 2024 the next major theme that I think
06:51 we're going to see is the settling of
06:53 the war on remote work we've seen these
06:56 companies kind of slugging back and
06:57 forth with employees and CEOs demanding
07:00 that employees return back to the office
07:02 or else anything like Amazon threatened
07:04 people's jobs and you said that you
07:06 don't have a future and all these other
07:07 companies and the the financial sector
07:09 and all this kind of
07:10 stuff but then you had employees that
07:13 were trying to fight back as best they
07:14 could and it looked like there's kind of
07:16 this tug of war going back and forth and
07:18 at one point it looked like the
07:19 employees were winning then it looked
07:20 like the the companies were winning then
07:22 it kind of going back and forth and I
07:24 think what we're finally seeing is that
07:25 there are some CEOs who have admitted
07:28 you know maybe this isn't working out so
07:30 well kind of maybe waving a little bit
07:32 of the White Flag which is a great thing
07:34 if you're somebody that's interested in
07:35 remote work do I think that this is
07:38 going to turn into a a remote first
07:40 culture again unfortunately I do not
07:43 think we're going to get back to that
07:44 point but I do think we're going to find
07:45 an equilibrium with a hybrid work model
07:47 that will be more commonly accepted so
07:49 it might be you come into the office for
07:51 two days and you work remote for three
07:54 now this is good news if you're somebody
07:56 that can't make the commute every single
07:58 day but it's still still could be bad
07:59 news for somebody that's sitting pretty
08:01 rural or maybe moved away from a work
08:03 population during the pandemic and now
08:05 you're suddenly forced with a lack of
08:07 job opportunities or a lack of high
08:09 quality job opportunities and now you're
08:11 not really based near any of them to
08:13 even commute to and so as we go into
08:15 2024 you may want to start to factor
08:17 that into your job search if you need to
08:19 get relocated back to an employment base
08:22 so that you have some options to work
08:24 with the next common theme that I think
08:25 we're going to continue to see is this
08:27 idea of loyal being dead on both sides
08:30 it's not just the employer they've kind
08:32 of put a Line in the Sand they've
08:34 decided to lay off everybody even the
08:36 most Harden fast people who survived
08:38 round after round found that they were
08:40 also on the layoff Block in 2022
08:43 2023 but on the flip side employees also
08:46 found that loyalty doesn't pay off so as
08:49 a result I think that you'll see that
08:50 people are not nearly as tied to a
08:52 single position before and we can only
08:54 hope that as more and more people have
08:56 short-term stints in their job history
08:58 or their recent job history
08:59 that it'll start to become more commonly
09:01 accepted because frankly you're not
09:03 going to be able to recruit people
09:04 without having some of that in their job
09:06 history and possibly some of the hiring
09:07 managers who might be hiring you also
09:09 have short-term stints now because of
09:11 this lack of stability furthermore I
09:13 think people are more willing to quit
09:14 jobs that they no longer see a future
09:16 with or that they feel that they align
09:18 or resonate with their corporate Mission
09:20 I think the great resignation kind of
09:22 shook people up in that regard of course
09:24 it's double-edged sword because there's
09:25 not as many jobs so you have to be
09:26 careful and I think you're seeing less
09:28 people fall voluntarily quitting the
09:30 data supports it but I think we'll find
09:31 an equilibrium this year where people
09:34 are learning that you don't have to stay
09:36 with a job where you're well past your
09:37 expiration date and I think we'll also
09:39 see a Slowdown of employers whose first
09:41 knee-jerk reaction is to lay staff off
09:44 when things get tight and as I mentioned
09:45 earlier in the video I think you're
09:46 going to see this as people not
09:47 necessarily being laid off but companies
09:50 not necessarily hiring as many people
09:52 now age in the workplace is going to
09:54 become more and more of a topic as we go
09:56 into the next decade because the work
09:59 Workforce is aging and there's not as
10:01 many people coming into the workforce at
10:03 the younger levels or the less
10:04 experienced levels furthermore people
10:06 who are already retired came back into
10:07 the workforce and droves as a result of
10:10 the pandemic and what it did to their
10:11 401ks but as things stabilize and these
10:14 people now decide to retire for good and
10:16 the rest of the workplace is aging out
10:19 we're going to see a major increase in
10:21 demand for certain roles so we have to
10:23 think in terms of what jobs are going to
10:24 be vacated as people finally end up
10:27 retiring and they're leaving these gay
10:29 holes employees are certainly stressed
10:30 out and thinking about that and that's
10:32 going to be the next Trend that I think
10:34 we're going to continue to see we saw
10:35 this very disruptive concept of AI
10:37 coming into the workplace it's making
10:38 its introduction through chat GPT and a
10:41 lot of other things and we've seen some
10:42 companies that have really embraced
10:44 taking a long and hard look at how AI
10:46 can be used to supplement and then
10:48 possibly replace some of their Workforce
10:51 and I expect that this will be a
10:52 continued Trend where AI is going to be
10:54 the rage in 2024 companies will be
10:57 aggressively looking for how they can
10:59 leverage these tools in a more effective
11:01 manner now this can be a direct threat
11:03 to a lot of people in the job market and
11:06 if you're not paying attention and you
11:07 don't think that it can happen to you
11:09 you need to open your eyes up and I
11:11 would suggest you take a really serious
11:12 look at your job and whether or not
11:15 there are aspects of it that can be
11:16 outsourced to an aiot because I
11:18 guarantee you your company is doing that
11:20 right now however it's not all gloom and
11:22 doom and if you position yourself
11:23 correctly you can leverage the tools of
11:26 AI to make yourself indispensable and in
11:28 fact fact I think we're going to see an
11:30 emerging job type that will be very
11:32 popular in machine learning and
11:34 leveraging AI so you look around your
11:37 Workforce and you see people that can be
11:39 easily outsourced I might suggest that
11:42 you learn the tools that will make you
11:44 more indispensible because you'll be the
11:46 expert in AI in your specific genre or
11:48 your specific vertical in other words
11:50 you need to adapt or risk being left
11:52 behind and I think this is going to be a
11:53 much more prominent theme as we head
11:55 into the latter part of this year so
11:57 take this one seriously so in summer I
11:59 think that the job market has some
12:00 interesting Trends emerging I think we
12:02 should be eyes wide open I don't think
12:03 it's going to be the best job market for
12:06 the average job Seeker but it's not
12:08 necessarily going to be horrible either
12:10 use this time to Res skill and retool
12:13 yourself so that you can make yourself
12:15 indispensable and also layoff proof and
12:18 I'll be speaking about that in more
12:19 detail as we head into the first part of
12:21 this year but if you're somebody that's
12:22 ready to take you the bull by the horns
12:24 and make this the best possible year for
12:26 yourself it's actually something that I
12:27 specialize in I've got a website called
12:28 called life after layoff.com it's loaded
12:30 with Insider tips and tricks all on
12:33 recruiting and careers so if you're
12:34 looking to skill up and learn how to
12:36 Market yourself in the most effective
12:37 way make sure you check it out I share
12:39 my deepest and most intimate knowledge
12:40 in the form of some training courses
12:42 first one is called resume Rocket Fuel
12:43 and it's going to teach you how to build
12:45 that future prooof resume that can make
12:47 you stand out in 2024 to those hiring
12:49 managers with less job postings listen
12:52 even though AI is really tempting and
12:53 there's lots of great tools like chat
12:55 gbt it's not the be all and all you have
12:57 to make sure that what you're putting
12:58 into this the system is good otherwise
13:00 it's just going to spit you out a bunch
13:01 of customized crap so that's why it's so
13:02 important to learn how to write a resume
13:04 that gets the attention of these
13:05 employers and then leverage tools like
13:07 chat GPT to assist you along the way but
13:10 once you get into the interview process
13:11 it is up to you to Market yourself
13:12 effectively so that you can land that
13:14 dream offer and that's where the
13:16 ultimate jobseeker boot cam comes in it
13:18 goes from job search all the way through
13:19 each round of the interview process we
13:21 break down and give you exact tips on
13:23 how to Ace each round then ultimately
13:26 get you to the job offer and then we
13:27 teach you how to negotiate so you don't
13:29 leave a dime on the table that alone is
13:31 usually worth the price of admission we
13:33 can often get your investment back in
13:34 the form of a higher job offer targeted
13:36 networking is a big theme in 2024 as
13:38 well you need to start leveraging
13:40 targeted networks if you're serious
13:42 about getting ahead in your career and
13:43 that's where LinkedIn comes in created a
13:45 course called unlocking LinkedIn that
13:46 teaches you how to leverage it as a job
13:49 seeker and more importantly how you can
13:50 skip the recruiter altogether so you
13:52 don't have to go through these job
13:53 postings which are quite literally the
13:55 slowest way to get hired but anyway I'm
13:57 glad we survived 2023 and let's hit 2024
14:00 and make this the best year yet
14:02 appreciate you watching and we'll see
14:03 you in the next one
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