Why Technology Still Matters with Marc Andreessen
a16z2022-11-09
58K views|1 years ago
💫 Short Summary
Mark Andreessen emphasizes the significance of technology in shaping the future, discussing historical progress and societal reactions to new innovations. The video delves into the impact of technology on human existence, power dynamics, and societal norms. It highlights the challenges and opportunities presented by emerging technologies, remote work shifts post-COVID, and the evolution of capitalism. The importance of embracing new ideas, entrepreneurial spirit, and innovation for societal progress is emphasized. The speaker advocates for reform, creative thinking, and new ventures to drive change in a world resistant to innovation.
✨ Highlights
📊 Transcript
✦
Importance of building the next generation of technologies.
02:11Founders and builders play a crucial role in shaping the future through innovation.
New technologies have a significant impact on human psychology and present regulatory challenges.
Distributed work offers opportunities in the tech industry.
Founder-led companies are significant and there is optimism in the tech industry.
✦
Importance of technology throughout history.
03:45Life before technological advancements was described as miserable, with struggles to obtain food and resources.
Historians debunk romanticized views of pre-technology eras, emphasizing hardships and limitations faced by individuals.
Drastic improvements brought by technological progress over the past four thousand years.
Contrasting differences in quality of life and opportunities available to humanity.
✦
The transformative power of technology throughout human history.
06:05The discovery and mastery of fire as a significant advancement in early human technology.
The myth of Prometheus delivering fire symbolizing the transformative power of technology.
The complexity of assessing historical advancements and the perception of current times being worse.
The crucial role of technology in shaping the world and improving human existence.
✦
The significance of fire as a technology in shaping human progress.
07:18Fire enabled cooking, warmth, and defense, but also warfare like the nuclear bomb.
People tend to focus on the potential downsides of new technologies, reflecting a psychological bias towards threats.
Despite risks, new technologies often have unforeseen positive outcomes.
The overall impact of fire and other technologies has been significant in shaping human progress.
✦
Early implementation of electric lighting revolutionized urban landscapes in big cities like Paris and London.
09:10Electric lighting made cities more walkable, livable, and safer after dark.
Despite initial skepticism, the bicycle became a popular consumer product accessible to the general population about 150 years ago.
The invention of the bicycle symbolized progress and societal change.
✦
The moral panic caused by the introduction of bicycles and the fake medical condition 'bicycle face'.
11:13Fear of young unmarried women meeting men and threatening the established social order led to the creation of 'bicycle face'.
The fears surrounding bicycles were unfounded as civilization ultimately survived the introduction of the technology.
Blowback against new technologies often stems from a fear of societal change rather than actual dangers posed by the technology.
✦
Impact of technology on society, power, and status.
14:13New technologies can disrupt existing power structures and societal norms.
'Men, Machines, and Modern Times' by Elton Morrison explores technology integration and societal reactions.
Anecdote about Sims in Naval Warfare illustrates historical context of technological advancements.
Society's reactions to technological advancements and implications for power structures are discussed.
✦
Sims' innovation in naval warfare significantly improved accuracy rates.
17:05Traditional naval warfare suffered from low accuracy due to fixed guns on ships.
Sims designed a mechanical mechanism to counterbalance ship movement, leading to around 90% accuracy.
This simple solution should be adopted by all countries and militaries for better naval battle outcomes.
✦
The challenges of adopting new technology in warfare.
17:29Sims faced resistance from the American and British navies in convincing them to adopt new gun technology.
New technology causes a reordering of power and social hierarchy, rendering old skills and practices obsolete.
The significant impact of new technology on traditional methods is highlighted.
Implementing change within established systems poses challenges.
✦
Evolution of Responses to New Technologies
20:28The stages of response to new technologies include ignoring it, name calling, and demonization.
This pattern has been seen in technologies like social networking, cryptocurrency, and blockchain.
People's perceptions of technology evolve from dismissing it as silly to seeing it as a threat to democracy.
The discussion highlights the cyclic nature of societal responses to innovation and the challenges in navigating these shifts in perspective.
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Impact of Cars on Social Order
22:34Cars disrupted city layouts, transportation systems, and local economies during their inception.
Blacksmiths and carriage drivers were displaced, leading to backlash from those who relied on traditional transportation.
Red flag laws were implemented in the US and UK in response to societal impact and resistance to change brought about by the car industry.
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Evolution of Red Flag Laws in Early Automobile History
24:30Car owners were initially required to have a person walk in front of their vehicle with a red flag to warn others, aiming to prevent horses from getting scared.
Non-compliance with the red flag law led to fines being imposed on car owners.
The law expanded to include pulling over for horses coming from the opposite direction to enhance safety measures.
The primary goal of these laws was to prevent accidents and injuries involving horses and automobiles.
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The impact of social networking on democracy.
25:55Social networking platforms like Facebook were praised for their role in elections and political messaging.
The Arab Spring was credited for facilitating democratic revolutions through social networking.
The significant influence of social networking on political processes and outcomes is emphasized.
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Evolution of viewpoints on new technology and its impact on democracy.
28:00Technology initially received lavish praise but is now seen as a fundamental threat to democracy.
Importance of analyzing current technologies through a historical lens.
Significance of red flag laws and the need to consider future perspectives on technology regulation.
Mark's ability to navigate new technologies and his forward-thinking approach to early adoption.
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Embracing New Technologies and Overcoming Skepticism.
31:00The speaker emphasizes the importance of looking past initial flaws and seeing the potential value of new technologies.
He reflects on his own journey of dismissing new tech only to later realize its significance.
Addressing common problems with emerging technologies such as speed, scalability, cost, and compatibility is crucial.
Embracing uncertainty and taking calculated risks are essential for staying ahead in the tech industry.
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Overcoming skepticism in the tech industry.
32:59Innovation in the crypto web 3 space, such as Ethereum, has addressed concerns like energy consumption through proof of stake.
Not all new technologies initially taken as a joke will be successful.
Investing in early-stage tech ventures involves risks, even with the right team and idea.
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Importance of being open to new technologies and taking risks in venture capital.
35:00Emphasizes the need to assess if a technology has potential and if smart people are working on it before investing.
Acknowledges that being early can be as detrimental as being wrong, but taking chances is necessary for success in startups.
Highlights that not everyone is suited for the high-risk environment of venture capital.
Emphasizes the importance of balancing risk and reward in the industry.
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The pursuit of Alchemy as a means to transmute lead into gold symbolized the desire for wealth creation and societal improvement.
37:01Smart individuals like Isaac Newton dedicated centuries to the pursuit of the Philosopher's Stone, but it remains elusive.
While there are no current research programs for turning lead into gold, advancements like synthetic diamonds showcase the ability to transform carbon into valuable materials.
Alchemy serves as a historical example of the pursuit of transformative technologies and the quest for wealth creation.
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Segway's initial backlash and societal perception.
39:35The device was only part one of the theory, with part two involving redesigning cities around it.
Cities currently designed around cars causing issues like excessive parking, safety concerns, pollution, and noise.
Proposal that cities could be more efficiently organized by incorporating Segways and reducing reliance on cars.
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Redesigning cities for faster movement through Segway-like devices.
40:58Building cities without cars, with sidewalks, paths, and various transportation options.
Emphasis on the importance of timing in innovation, with historical advancements taking decades to become mainstream.
Impact of regulation changes and mass market adoption of new technologies in driving progress.
Noting land ownership incentives as a catalyst for innovation throughout history.
✦
Impact of remote work on cities.
42:51Agglomeration in cities leads to innovation, technology, and culture.
Cities attract smart, diverse individuals, leading to advancements.
Superstar cities like San Francisco Bay Area are hubs for technological advancements.
Young technologists seek out these cities for career growth.
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Impact of Technology and Remote Work During Lockdowns.
45:01Technology such as the internet and Zoom has allowed companies to operate effectively during lockdowns.
COVID-19 has shown that physical location is no longer a barrier to participating in different industries.
The shift towards remote work raises questions about the ideal communities for children to grow up in.
Specific locations are no longer essential for full participation in economic activities.
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Remote work is becoming more common, leading to individuals reconsidering various aspects of their lives.
47:30There is pushback against remote work, emphasizing the need for enhancements.
CEOs of major companies are struggling to adjust to this change due to their upbringing in traditional office settings.
The discussion around remote work is progressing, with new technologies facilitating the transition while also posing obstacles that must be overcome for successful remote work arrangements.
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The impact of remote work on traditional office dynamics.
49:26CEOs of big companies are hesitant about full remote work, while startup CEOs are more open to the concept.
Restructuring is anticipated in the next five years, with more companies likely to allow remote work.
Remote work offers benefits such as improved quality of life and higher employee satisfaction.
The remote work revolution could lead to significant changes in company structures and disrupt traditional business practices.
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The impact of remote work on company structures and culture.
50:50Building new companies from scratch may be necessary due to different requirements for remote work.
Reconstructing existing big companies for remote work could lead to high turnover rates.
Speculation on the development of new real estate like corporate resorts for remote work team bonding and collaboration.
Anticipation of significant changes in global operations post-remote work transition.
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Transition to Remote Work at a16z
53:30The speaker initially opposed remote work but changed their stance due to external factors.
a16z previously operated from a single office in Menlo Park.
The decision to transition to remote work was influenced by the need for critical mass in the office and data showing funding and talent concentration in the Bay Area.
The firm valued in-person collaboration but had to adapt to the shift towards remote work.
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Challenges faced in a city with high housing costs and transportation issues.
55:30Impact of remote work during the pandemic, leading to increased productivity but also burnout.
Companies started hiring remote workers more widely, resulting in changes in hiring practices.
Surveys conducted to gather data on shifting attitudes towards remote work and its long-term effects on the workforce.
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Emphasizing the importance of adapting to a new model in the industry.
58:08Discussing management practices, tools, systems, and the perception of technology and innovation.
Maintaining an optimistic view of technology and a collective societal orientation towards positivity.
Highlighting the history of technology adoption cycles and resistance.
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The concept of technology and society's perception of new innovations.
01:00:18Older generations are resistant to change in technology.
Science progresses as older scientists retire.
Entrenched views hinder opportunities for new ideas for entrepreneurs.
Societal divide in ethics and beliefs regarding progress leads to different perspectives on innovation.
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Evolution of Societal Attitudes Towards Innovation
01:01:55Resistance to new ideas and technologies seen historically in societies like North Korea and the Amish.
The U.S. and the West also experienced periods of resistance, such as the Dark Ages, before accepting progress.
The rise of Protestantism and natural philosophy contributed to the development of science and new technologies, shaping modern capitalism.
Society's view of innovation has shifted over time towards embracing new ideas and technologies as symbols of modernity and civilization.
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Negative cultural shift towards complacency and resistance to progress in society.
01:04:23Some individuals perceive all new technologies as inherently bad due to comfort and success experienced in the West.
The concept of an 'upper income trap' suggests individuals may become content and resistant to change after reaching a certain standard of living.
Questions arise about the future of innovation and societal progress in the face of perceived sufficiency and reluctance to embrace new advancements.
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The Fermi Paradox questions the absence of discovered alien civilizations despite the vast number of planets in the Universe.
01:05:43Aliens may have reached a level of upper middle-class lifestyle similar to humans, leading them to not explore further.
Humanity's past achievements, such as landing on the Moon, are highlighted in the video.
Elon Musk's goal of sending humans to Mars is discussed as a significant future endeavor.
The video suggests that societal decisions and forces may impact the progress of space exploration.
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Transition from pre-modern to modern and potential post-modern phases in societal structures and human existence.
01:07:55Concerns raised about humanity's current state, including complacency and lack of progress.
Excitement surrounding technological advancements such as AI and biotech, with significant developments in machine learning and genomics.
Speaker expresses awe at recent discoveries and concepts in AI and biotech fields, hinting at groundbreaking innovations.
Emphasis on the lasting impact of these innovations in the future.
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The internet as a great equalizer providing opportunities for exploration, learning, and creation.
01:09:55Many smart and ambitious individuals throughout history lacked opportunities to excel in advanced fields.
Elon Musk's advancements in space technology, particularly reusable rockets, represent a revolutionary shift.
Long-term implications of the internet still unfolding, with biotech and crypto experiencing significant changes.
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Impact of online connections on global creativity.
01:11:50Possibility of more original creative work due to remote work and asynchronous schedules.
Society's changing values towards achievements over time.
James Burnham's theory on the managerial revolution and the two phases of capitalism.
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Evolution of capitalism from Bourgeois era to managerial capitalism.
01:14:37Transition from sole proprietorships to multinational corporations with a board of directors and executive management.
CEOs in modern corporations are often not the founders and have business school training.
Rise of a managerial class of technocratic experts essential for running large-scale industrial organizations.
Examples of industries requiring managerial expertise include car companies, electrical grids, and telephone networks.
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Transition from Founder-Led to Professional CEO-Led Companies
01:17:28The shift is inevitable due to scale and complexity, leading to a transition from Bourgeois capitalism to managerial capitalism.
Collective consensus is valued over individual accomplishment in society, impacting management styles.
Finding modern Bourgeois capitalists embodying old entrepreneurial models is crucial for driving innovation.
Reverting to the capitalist model is essential for pursuing new endeavors.
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Transition from bourgeois capitalism to managerial capitalism is inevitable in both business and government sectors.
01:19:20Government evolution in the U.S. over the last century reflects this transition through different eras, from a small and irrelevant entity to a centralized power during the FDR era.
The government has evolved into a bureaucratic structure with politicians and experts.
The shift towards a structured and process-driven approach is highlighted as the expected norm for effective governance and business operations.
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Evolution of society from individualistic to bureaucratic and managerial structures.
01:20:41Large organizations and bureaucracy now manage interactions with cable companies, government agencies, and mass-produced entertainment.
Society operates on autopilot without innovation or creativity, leading to stagnation.
Lack of individual agency and reliance on bureaucratic structures in the current system.
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The importance of innovation and new ideas in technology, culture, and politics.
01:22:46Creative individuals challenging the status quo to drive progress and change.
Examples of educational reform and the emergence of new nations due to stagnation in the western world.
The role of unconventional thinking in shaping the future.
The ongoing battle between established systems and innovative ideas.
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Challenges in Public Education
01:25:03Child abuse, teacher scandals, and curriculum controversies are prominent issues in public education.
Past efforts for education reform have not led to significant improvements.
A study by the Gates Foundation revealed that no new ideas in the past 50 years have effectively enhanced education.
Existing education systems are resistant to reform, despite time and resources invested.
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Challenges with institutional reform due to the principal-agent problem and resistance from bureaucracies.
01:27:00Lack of incentives for change among those in charge leads to stagnation.
Speaker advocates for starting new initiatives like building schools, companies, or countries for progress.
Difficulty in establishing new countries in the modern era due to most land being already claimed.
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Importance of Innovation in a Stagnant World
01:28:25The network state concept emphasizes how individuals with new ideas have opportunities for success in a resistant environment.
Entrepreneurship and new ideas are driving forces of progress and continued innovation.
Relying on the status quo hinders innovation, and allowing space for new individuals to innovate is crucial.
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Opportunities for involvement and business growth were emphasized in the conversation.
01:30:27The importance of innovation and growth was highlighted to prevent stagnation.
Gratitude was expressed for the discussion and listeners were encouraged to subscribe for exclusive content.
The ongoing significance of building and creating in various industries was underscored in the dialogue.
00:00hello everyone the a6z podcast is back
00:03and this is your new host Seth Smith I'm
00:06so excited to explore the world of
00:07technology with you through the lens of
00:09the builders shaping it and if you've
00:11been listening to the Pod for a while I
00:13hope you'll stick with me as I take the
00:14reins from sonal who by the way is doing
00:16really wonderful work at our sister
00:17podcast web3 with a16c okay on to the
00:20content today we have a very special
00:22kickoff episode to start our launch
00:25Series where we wanted to explore the
00:26age-old question why is building the
00:29next generation of Technologies still so
00:31important and perhaps even more
00:33important who is going to build this
00:34next generation of technology and what
00:36needs to be done to enable those
00:38Founders and Builders and I'm a little
00:40biased but who better to Traverse this
00:41ground than a16c's co-founder and
00:43general partner Mark Andreessen someone
00:45who is not only Built but also invested
00:47in the future time and time again
00:49especially when it was not the obvious
00:50thing to do so today together with Mark
00:52we explore technology through the lens
00:54of History including the three stages of
00:56human psychology as we encounter these
00:58new technologies we also talk about how
01:00that process often ends in regulation
01:02and we include a couple examples of that
01:04which by the way if you've never heard
01:06of red flag laws you'll want to listen
01:07in we also talk about when to change
01:09your mind the Cambrian explosion of
01:11opportunity coming from distributed work
01:13the importance of founder-led companies
01:15and so much more and of course we'll end
01:17the episode by examining why there's
01:19still so much reason for optimism and
01:22hopefully this episode will also get you
01:23excited about what's to come with the
01:24a16c podcast as we do have a lot more
01:27coming that includes coverage of major
01:28trends like AI space carbon removal and
01:31you'll soon hear from Legends like Neil
01:33Stevenson ball of Jason New Boston and
01:35even Steve Wozniak who shared with us
01:37his latest Venture Privateer by the way
01:39that episode is already live in the feed
01:41if you want to give it a listen alright
01:43let's dive in the content here is for
01:46informational purposes only should not
01:48be taken as legal business tax or
01:50investment advice or be used to evaluate
01:52any investment or security and is not
01:54directed at any investors or potential
01:56investors in any a16z fund for more
01:58details BCA 16z.com disclosures
02:06[Music]
02:11so this is the first episode of our
02:13launch series and in the launch series
02:15we're going to cover several
02:16Technologies and we're going to cover
02:18them with their Founders and dive really
02:19deeply into how these Technologies May
02:21shape our Collective future but before
02:24we do that we're going to address an
02:25important question and it may sound
02:27simple
02:28but we need to ask why these
02:30Technologies even matter in the first
02:31place why is it so essential today that
02:33we continue to build and today we have
02:35Mark Andreessen talking to us about this
02:37very important topic and who better than
02:40someone who has built the future and
02:42invested in the future many times over
02:43especially when it wasn't the easy thing
02:45to do
02:46so Mark why don't we start there and why
02:48don't we start by attacking this
02:50question with the lens of History so how
02:53maybe do people view the importance of
02:55technology today and how has that
02:57changed maybe relative to how they
02:59viewed it in the past yeah so thanks so
03:01that's that's a great way to start and
03:03you know so many of the discussions
03:04about today's Technologies kind of take
03:06place in this you know kind of a
03:07historical frame where it's as if there
03:09had never been any new technologies in
03:11the past or that there were new
03:13technologies in the past but those were
03:14all the good ones and today we just have
03:15the bad ones or something like that and
03:17so the the the the key question to kind
03:20of started out asking on all these
03:21topics is basically
03:24um it's basically like why is there
03:26something and not just nothing
03:28um but by which I mean basically like
03:30what was life like before technology
03:32right like what was life like in like
03:34its natural state before we had all
03:35these wonderful Technologies before we
03:36had steam power before we had you know
03:38tractors before we had telephones and so
03:40forth and and you know there's you know
03:41a lot of historians have talked about
03:42this but you know the answer is life was
03:45what was known at the time at you know
03:47Thomas Hobbs famously said it was nasty
03:49British and short right and so you'll
03:51you'll read these fantasies from time to
03:53time about how people kind of in you
03:54know older periods uh you know more
03:56historical periods like somehow they
03:57were living in the state of aggressive
03:58nature and kind of everything was
04:00wonderful and they were just kind of
04:01hanging out and having a good time and
04:02basically like that those are all just
04:04fantasies
04:05um you know in reality but basically
04:06everybody was miserable all the time
04:08everybody was poor everybody was
04:10assistance farming just to make enough
04:11you know be able to harvest enough food
04:13to be able to eat that day or to be able
04:15to hunt enough meat to be able to eat
04:16that day and for the most part people
04:17died young they died sick you know they
04:19never they never got anywhere they never
04:20did anything you know basically like all
04:22of recorded civilization is basically
04:25only over the course of the last four
04:26thousand years you know for the for the
04:28many millions of years of humanity
04:30before that like there's basically
04:31nothing and you know basically because
04:33like people had no time to do anything
04:34other than just try to grow enough food
04:36to eat so
04:37so basically it's like okay so basically
04:38it's like what happened to cause life no
04:40longer being Aster British and short you
04:42know what what happened to cause
04:43basically the reality of human existence
04:45to go from what it used to be to what it
04:47is today and you know it's not perfect
04:49today but it's a lot better than it was
04:50and of course the answer is technology
04:51and in fact technology is the only
04:53answer to that question right there
04:55there there's no other answer right it's
04:57not like people got smarter it's not
04:58like people got you know I don't know
05:00human human you know DNA is the same
05:02human beings haven't changed uh it's
05:04basically only through technology and
05:06things have gotten better and and you
05:07know the way to kind of think about that
05:09is what is technology technology is
05:11tools right technology basically is
05:13applied human Ingenuity uh in building
05:15tools and then and then those tools
05:17basically give human beings leverage up
05:19on the world
05:21um you know that that leverage shows up
05:22in many forms
05:24um you know it it shows up in forms you
05:26know for sure in some cases that are
05:27that are bad it also shows up of course
05:29in in
05:30um in the form of many cases that are
05:31that are also are very good
05:33so I agree with you that progress
05:36continues and if you look at all the
05:38important markers we are doing better
05:40and that has been true for a very long
05:42time why is it then that people seem to
05:45have this view of where we are today in
05:48history in terms of things being so bad
05:51yeah so you know with that obviously
05:52that's a complicated question
05:54um the technology part of it I think is
05:56very clear though um which is you know
05:58and again you kind of think about this
05:59historically so so let's let's start
06:02with the story of like one of the very
06:03original technologies that basically a
06:05human beings kind of discovered and
06:06mastered which was fire quite quite
06:09literally fire
06:11um you know obviously today you take
06:12fire for granted you just assume it's
06:13something that's always been with us but
06:15like fire is a tool like fire as a
06:17technology was something that at some
06:18point you know kind of early human being
06:20said to figure out how to master and how
06:21to take control of
06:23um and just to give you a sense of like
06:24what a big deal it was to actually
06:26Master the technology of fire when that
06:28happened you know what one of the sort
06:30of you know kind of core fundamental
06:31kind of myths of of of human existences
06:33is the myth of Prometheus the god
06:35Prometheus
06:37um and the god Prometheus famously is
06:39the you know the way the myth goes you
06:41know Prometheus delivered fire to
06:42humanity basically delivered fire as a
06:44tool uh uh to humanity and and and for
06:47me this was not it's not was not beloved
06:50as a consequence of of delivering fire
06:51to people but Prometheus was was
06:53condemned specifically he was in the
06:56myth he was chained to a rock
06:58um uh and uh for and for all eternity um
07:01and uh according to math every day a
07:03bird comes along and picks out his liver
07:06um very painfully and then he according
07:08to Matthew were generous every night and
07:10then the next day the bird tortures them
07:11again and you know this has been
07:12happening forever so so like the fact
07:14that there's that myth with that outcome
07:16assigned to the introduction of fire as
07:18a technology to human existence right
07:20and and of course the myth is not what
07:22assumes that it's not literally true but
07:24it's symbolic right which is basically a
07:26symbolic of the fact that Humanity
07:27basically experienced the rise of fire
07:28and technology and said like wow this
07:31was a big deal and maybe not entirely
07:33positive and then and then of course
07:35that makes sense because if you think
07:36about how fire was used as a technology
07:37obviously fire was used for good right
07:39which is like fire made it possible to
07:41cook meat right fire made it possible to
07:43um you know to basically like you know
07:45defend the campsite against like you
07:47know wolves in the middle of the night
07:48it made it possible to keep people warm
07:49you can keep your baby from freezing to
07:50death like you know fires this like
07:52Miracle technology
07:54of course fire also got used in Warfare
07:56right um and you know even up to the
07:58modern day like you know what's the you
07:59know kind of state-of-the-art weapon of
08:01our times it's the nuclear bomb of
08:02course what what does that bring it
08:03brings fire
08:05um and so you know look it is a
08:07double-edged sword like would we want to
08:09live in the modern world without fire
08:12um because it has you know both the
08:13downsides as well the upsides we
08:15wouldn't but like both of those are
08:17present and basically my interpretation
08:19and if you kind of go through the
08:20history of new technologies basically
08:21for every important new technology
08:23there's always this argument basically
08:24there's always this argument of like
08:25okay in theory there are all these
08:27things we can do with a good technology
08:28that are very positive in fact probably
08:30there are things the new technology will
08:32make possible that we can't even think
08:33of today right and that's been a very
08:35common pattern by the way which is
08:36people don't people actually have a very
08:37hard time anticipating the upside for
08:39new technologies uh but the same
08:41argument basically always applies is
08:42with fire which is basically like well
08:43what about the potential downsides and
08:45then you know say human beings are kind
08:47of psychologically wired to the downside
08:49like we're you know we're we're wired to
08:51basically detect and try to try to evade
08:52threats
08:53um right and so there's basically always
08:56the simplest to say okay that you know
08:57this is the technology that's going to
08:59ruin everything
09:00um and if you go through basically the
09:01history of every new technology like
09:03that you know that argument applied
09:04repeatedly give you a couple examples so
09:06one is uh outdoor lighting uh so
09:08electric lighting right electric
09:09lighting actually was first implemented
09:10Outdoors because they didn't know how to
09:12do it indoors because it kept burning
09:14kept burning places down um it took a
09:16while to get it to get it to be safe but
09:18uh the first electric lighting was
09:19rolled out in you know big cities in
09:21Paris and London you know something I
09:22forget what it was like something like
09:23200 years ago now
09:25um and you know big deal like outdoor
09:27lighting all of a sudden the city is
09:29walkable and livable and safer right
09:30after dark like you know this this this
09:32is a pretty big deal and the
09:33Contemporary accounts are basically I
09:35mean one was the sense of wonderment
09:37that this was now you know basically the
09:38the life could now be basically lit 24
09:40hours but then there were also all of
09:42these you know kind of you know stories
09:44of like this is going to like completely
09:45destroy civilization this is against the
09:47natural order of things you know this is
09:48going to completely you know people
09:49aren't going to be able to sleep anymore
09:50you know all kinds of things all kinds
09:52of illicit you know social activities
09:53are going to happen at night right in
09:56the past everybody just had to go to bed
09:57at night now they're going to be out on
09:58the streets at three in the morning
09:59doing all kinds of bad things by the way
10:02there are you know in every major city
10:04there are criminals out on the street at
10:05three in the morning doing bad things
10:06like you know it's not like the downside
10:09was was was completely wrong it's just
10:10that obviously the the trade-off was
10:12worth it
10:13um you know my favorite story on this is
10:15the invention of the bicycle
10:16um and this one is really is really
10:18great because you know there's this
10:19there's this Netflix documentary called
10:21the social dilemma that's kind of you
10:22know condemns you know kind of social
10:23media is this kind of unique threat to
10:25civilization and one of the things that
10:26one of the guys in that movie says is
10:28he's like you know social media is the
10:29first you know technology like this
10:31that's had these negative consequences
10:32it's like nobody nobody ever complained
10:34about the invention of the bicycle and
10:36it actually turns out that's not true he
10:39just he just didn't do enough reading
10:40like it turns out people actually
10:41complained a lot about the invention of
10:43the bicycle
10:44um and and this story I think it is sort
10:46of very symbolic so the so the bicycle
10:48is a big deal so the bicycle rolled out
10:50as a consumer product about 150 years
10:51ago uh you know they kind of got it
10:53working and manufactured to the point
10:54where it got cheap enough for where kind
10:56of normal people could buy it and so the
10:57the bicycle starts to roll out kind of
10:59across the American Countryside and
11:01basically there's this immediate moral
11:02Panic about to bicycle and this is
11:04chronicled in the in the media at the
11:06time if you read the Twitter account
11:07pessimists spark
11:09um it's uh which maybe we can link to he
11:11he goes back and reconstructs kind of
11:13the the moral Panic around the bicycle
11:15and basically the argument against the
11:16bicycle at the time was the bicycle is
11:18the first transportation technology that
11:20young unmarried women in towns and
11:22Villages across the U.S could actually
11:24afford to be able to buy and use right
11:26because cars didn't exist yet like you
11:28know whatever horses and wagons are too
11:29expensive they couldn't get access to
11:30them whatever uh you know walking took
11:32too long
11:33um all of a sudden but all of a sudden
11:35like I'm young I'm married to have the
11:36bicycle which means young unmarried
11:38women can go from like one town to the
11:40next town
11:40which means all of a sudden young
11:42unmarried women can meet you know boys
11:44and men not just in the current time but
11:46in the other Town
11:48um and so obviously to the kind of
11:49established social order of the time
11:51like this which was was a profound
11:53threat right to kind of how things
11:54worked the Assumption was you're a young
11:55a married woman in town you marry one of
11:57the men right in that town all of a
11:59sudden your your world opens up and so
12:01the media at the time uh at that time
12:04created completely like had a whole
12:06cloth they created a new medical
12:07condition called bicycle face
12:10um and the idea bicycle face was your
12:12young woman you're on the bicycle you're
12:13peddling to get to the next town and you
12:15know pedaling takes exertion and so
12:17you're going to have like your face is
12:18going to contort you know because of the
12:19exertion and you're going to be like you
12:20know pedaling along like this and
12:22bicycle face was the idea that your face
12:24was going to freeze into that contorted
12:25position
12:27um and then you know then then you would
12:29never be able to get married right
12:31um now fortunately it turned out bicycle
12:33face was not actually a real thing it
12:35turned out civilization survived the
12:36introduction of the bicycle uh but
12:38basically like there's just this there's
12:40this constant blowback right and then
12:42basically what you find and we'll we'll
12:44probably talk about this in some ways
12:45but basically what you find is the
12:47blowback is nominally a response to the
12:49dangers of the technology with the
12:52blowback actually is in in almost every
12:54case that the blowback actually is it's
12:56basically a a fear a statement an
12:59assertion a realization
13:01um that the introduction of the new
13:02technology is going to change the
13:04society right and and then in particular
13:06status and power within the society
13:09right who's in charge who's in power who
13:11makes decisions who has status who gets
13:14money right all of a sudden the
13:15orderings of society is up for grabs and
13:17that and that's why you get this just
13:18like you know spectacular freak out when
13:20these things show up yeah I'm glad you
13:21brought up pessimist archive because if
13:23people are curious we'll bring it up on
13:24the screen but basically anything that
13:26you you can think of as a prior
13:28technology or maybe even things that you
13:29take for granted as not Technologies
13:31just things embedded in our lives had
13:33this blowback you mentioned the bicycle
13:34but it's also the radio trains teddy
13:37bears jazz music I don't know if people
13:38would view teddy bears as technology but
13:40the point is anything that becomes
13:42embedded in society that as you're
13:44alluding to can impact Society at scale
13:48people start to get afraid of because
13:50they start going through all these
13:51scenarios and thinking oh who is this
13:53going to impact is this going to impact
13:54my job is this going to impact the types
13:55of people I can interact with it's going
13:57to impact the power I have in society so
13:59Mark why don't we dive into that how do
14:01you see technology and its
14:03implementation or really as it's
14:04starting to be implemented within
14:06Society how do people react and what
14:09what specifically about the power within
14:11Society is being upended
14:13yeah so there's this incredible book
14:15it's it's very short very good it's
14:17actually written 50 years ago by a
14:19professor at MIT at the time
14:22um and um it's the name Elton Morrison
14:24and and what's great about this book is
14:25it was written before the internet even
14:27before personal computers and so it's
14:28kind of it's got this kind of Timeless
14:29you know kind of quality to it and it's
14:31it's the title of the book is called men
14:33machines in modern times it's this topic
14:35it's basically okay what what exactly is
14:37the process by which a new technology
14:38enters society and then how does society
14:40react basically how does how does this
14:41sort of the powers that be or the status
14:43quo of society react
14:45um and Morrison tells this amazing story
14:47he kind of hangs the whole thing on this
14:48sort of very amazing story from about
14:50100 120 years ago now maybe 130 years
14:52ago
14:54um around this guy named Sims and this
14:56guy named Sims at the time
14:58um worked in the area of Naval Warfare
15:00right so you know big big big you know
15:02battleships seafaring battleships uh you
15:04know firing on each other you know
15:06firing on on um you know on each other
15:07firing on on land targets and so forth
15:09and of course you know the the world 120
15:11hundred years 130 years ago you know we
15:13didn't really have have airplanes you
15:14know sort of military airplanes he added
15:16so you know sea Warfare Naval Warfare
15:18was Warfare like it was how invasions
15:19happened and it was you know and and how
15:21countries got defended so this was you
15:23know kind of the core kind of aspect of
15:25military technology at the time
15:27um and so since basically worked on
15:29basically guns like big big guns on on
15:31big military ships um and then in
15:33particular how do you aim big guns on
15:34big military ships
15:36um and the way The Story Goes is
15:38basically before Sims guns were fixed in
15:40position on a ship right so you'd have a
15:42big ship you have you know you've all
15:44seen this in movies you'd have the gun
15:45sticking out the side of the ship and
15:47then basically what would happen is and
15:48the gun is in like a fixed position
15:50right because it's you know lash of the
15:51deck so it doesn't roll around
15:53um and so what happens is you know the
15:54sea is moving right and so the the ship
15:56is kind of going back and forth like
15:58this in the water which means the gun is
16:00going back and forth like this which
16:02means that basically enable battles up
16:04until Sims you know thus the accuracy
16:07rate of of guns being fired off these
16:09ships was like at best 10
16:11um and you know maybe you know quite
16:12often below that which is you know they
16:14would just miss most of the time and why
16:15did they miss most of the time because
16:17the Gunner would be like you know the
16:18Gunnery officer would get a get a fix on
16:20on the position and he would go to order
16:22to fire but by that point right the
16:24ocean had moved the ship had moved and
16:25then he no longer had a lock and then
16:26the thing would fire on the Cannonball
16:28would miss the other ship
16:30um and so you know a lot of Naval
16:31battles up until that point where these
16:32ships kind of sitting side by side
16:34firing at each other and missing all the
16:35time
16:36right and so sim said well you know gee
16:38like there has to be a better way to do
16:40this and basically what he designed was
16:41a mechanical mechanism that
16:43automatically basically worked in
16:45opposition right counterbalance uh to
16:47the role of the ship and so if if the if
16:49the ship is you know if the ship
16:50basically is going down right the the
16:52mechanism for the gun would
16:54automatically correct and so the Gunnery
16:56officer could basically get a fix and
16:57then as long as the ship stayed in the
16:59same position as it rolled around you
17:01know the the the the the the the lock
17:03you know the sort of lock on the target
17:04would stay intact then all of a sudden
17:05the accuracy rate you know shoots up for
17:06like 90 right and so and so what's so
17:09great about this this example is it's
17:11like the most obvious thing in the world
17:13which is it's like obviously every
17:14country in the world would instantly
17:15adopt this every military would adopt
17:17this every ship would instantly be
17:18retrofitted to do this right this is
17:20like the most obvious slam dunk thing
17:22you could do it's a huge advance in
17:23Warfare you couldn't imagine living
17:25without it like that's what you would
17:26assume and of course that's not what
17:28happened at all
17:29um what happened basically was Sims took
17:31it took seems like a full 25 years to
17:33basically convince the American and
17:34British navies to adopt this technology
17:35it was was like a full generational
17:37shift and the book goes through kind of
17:39in detail kind of you know basically
17:40what happened he the stereo Sims
17:42ultimately had to actually appeal
17:44directly to president Teddy Roosevelt at
17:45the time that like the entire military
17:47command structure of that era basically
17:48just told him to basically half off
17:51um you know we don't want your
17:52newfangled thing you know we're going to
17:54keep doing things the old way and he
17:55ultimately appealed to Teddy Roosevelt
17:56and Roosevelt actually ordered the Navy
17:58to look at it and then they you know
17:59they later ended up adopting it
18:01um and so Morrison basically says well
18:03okay what you know like it's like the
18:04ultimate example like if they wouldn't
18:06adopt even that technology like okay
18:08this this must be like some very Primal
18:10kind of counter Force that's happening
18:12and and this was you know and his thesis
18:13was it basically uh is the following
18:15which is every new technology is a
18:17reordering of of the power and the
18:19status in society and then specifically
18:22in the form of this gun right it was
18:24basically like the entire training
18:26basically methods all of the officer
18:28promotion methods like the entire social
18:30hierarchy of Mabel vessels and how
18:33Gunnery officers were trained and how
18:35guns were you know built and
18:36manufactured and crewed and managed and
18:38how military Doctrine worked right and
18:41all the different things about how you
18:42make decisions you know about this like
18:44it was all based on the old model and
18:46and and and basically like that skill
18:47set became obsolete when this gun came
18:49out and so those people became obsolete
18:51or at least they worried they'd become
18:52obsolete this new breed of kind of you
18:55know more advanced Innovative
18:56engineering you know kind of mentality
18:57came in and and and and was a profound
19:00threat and by the way that's what
19:01happened which is you had like a general
19:02you ultimately had a generational
19:03turnover of of of of all of the staff
19:06and officers involved in the naval
19:07Gunnery
19:08um and so Morrison basically derives he
19:11goes through this example then he
19:12derives basically this three-part
19:13process that he says applies to any new
19:15technology basically as it is as it is
19:18greeted and fought by the status quo by
19:21the powers that be and he says basically
19:22it's a three-step process so step one is
19:24just to completely ignore it like so
19:27just pretend it doesn't exist refuse to
19:29acknowledge it don't talk about it don't
19:31even engage in conversations like we're
19:32just not going to do this
19:34um at some point though it just you know
19:36at some point you know these things
19:37become too obvious and they have to
19:38engage he said step two is rational
19:40counter argument right so and rational
19:43counter argument is you know this can't
19:44possibly work because you know it's
19:46going to be too expensive it's not going
19:48to be fast enough it's not going to
19:49scale people don't know how to use it
19:50right all the different kind of rational
19:52arguments that you can come up with to
19:54to post something and then ultimately
19:56you know when those don't work anymore
19:58because people you know people are still
20:00watching this and being like okay it
20:01still seems like a good idea then he
20:03says stage three says stage three is
20:05when the name calling begins right and
20:07so stage three is basically just like a
20:09full out power status political fight uh
20:12where all of a sudden basically it's
20:13like okay these are you know these
20:14people who are bringing this to
20:15technology they're bad people they have
20:17bad morals they have bad intent they're
20:19going to ruin everything uh right and if
20:21you think about it it's so funny because
20:22it's like basically the internet
20:23followed this exact trajectory like you
20:26know crypto cryptocurrency blockchain
20:28web 3 is following this exact same
20:30trajectory social networking followed
20:31this exact same trajectory like I've now
20:33seen this pattern you know out of 50
20:35times in the you know in in the last 30
20:37years and it keeps playing out the same
20:39way nobody learns anything right and it
20:43is this is literally what happens with
20:45every new technology and I I become
20:46convinced that's basically how how this
20:48unfolds yeah I think something that
20:50reminded me of is something biology said
20:52recently which she was reflecting on
20:54people's response to Social and how its
20:56impacted Society over time and he he
20:58noted that maybe 10 or 20 years ago
21:00social was seen as like these silly apps
21:03being created and like who wants to
21:04focus on this and you know why are we
21:06directing smart attention into these
21:07types of fields and then now he's saying
21:10or noting that people are framing it as
21:12a threat to democracy so it's kind of
21:14interesting that people go from one
21:16angle or one perception and then because
21:19technology in particular tends to be
21:21this Force that's very very hard to stop
21:22it then turns into something much
21:25different and the same people who framed
21:27it as a silly app are now framing it as
21:28a threat to democracy and to your point
21:30this isn't new right we had the same
21:32kind of Dynamics happening with the
21:34bicycle or actually I think it would
21:36actually be fun for us to go into these
21:38red flag laws that you told me about
21:39quickly and we'll return to to the
21:41framing that that you brought up but
21:43could you speak a little bit more to the
21:46red flag laws that were implemented when
21:47cars were coming to be yeah and I'd like
21:50to I'd like to come back to biology's
21:51thing on social by the way because I'll
21:52I'll interpret it a little bit
21:54differently I'll put it into this the
21:55the The Sims framework but um but yeah
21:57so cars so this is another great one so
21:59like cars it's like okay like we all
22:01live with cars we all can't live without
22:03cars like you know there's still huge
22:04fights about how you know cars should be
22:06used in our society but like there's
22:07cars everywhere like our society doesn't
22:09function about cars and we just kind of
22:10take them totally for granted uh by the
22:12way we take them so for granted that we
22:14just like repeatedly bail out the big
22:15car companies right like at this point
22:18like the taxpayers have kept them in
22:19business for a long time
22:21um and so you know the car and so and
22:23then you're you're just like you know
22:24it's just like okay the car must have
22:26been this obvious thing like of course
22:27you want the car you know who you know
22:29who could who could have fought the car
22:30at least for any kind of you know kind
22:31of valid reason and so again to your
22:33point like it turns out actually the
22:34cars where we were actually a profound
22:37threat to the sort of social order of
22:39that time uh of the ERA this is like
22:41going back 120 years
22:43um and uh and it was basically this
22:45exact same kind of process played out
22:47with the car um and so the the the the
22:49thing you mentioned basically the thing
22:51that happened at the peak of kind of the
22:52anti-car history at the time uh the
22:55moral Panic around cars was basically
22:56it's basically what happened was cars
22:58were a threat to basically they were the
23:00threat to like the ordering of like
23:01everything from how cities were laid out
23:03they were you know a threat to you know
23:04they were going to upend you know the
23:05ability to have like modern
23:06Transportation modern shipping you know
23:09they were gonna upend everything from
23:10the world of local Merchants uh they
23:12were gonna upand you know there was an
23:13entire industry of blacksmiths you know
23:15that you know the horse was like Central
23:17to a lot of economies a lot of people
23:18made made their living off of you know
23:20dealing with you know dealing with
23:21horses
23:22um you know there were people who were
23:24like trained you know Carriage drivers
23:25who all of a sudden were out of jobs and
23:26so there there was this like all of a
23:28sudden this huge backlash and so what
23:29happened was uh a bunch of sort of State
23:32Municipal level uh areas uh you know
23:35both in the US like it you know in and
23:37around Pennsylvania at the time and then
23:38also in the UK
23:40um uh implemented their their
23:42legislators implemented at the time what
23:43became known as the red flag laws
23:46um so the red flag law looks works as
23:48follows
23:49um which is okay Mr car owner you've got
23:52your fancy new car congratulations
23:54um you know you're you're very proud of
23:56yourself you're probably you know you
23:57know you're probably a pretty uh you
23:59know well-off person uh in the community
24:00people probably generally are probably
24:02jealously to start with you've got this
24:03fancy new automobile
24:05um and and by the way in those days like
24:07cars broke down all the time and so you
24:08know when you would take your car out
24:09for a ride you'd have like you'd be
24:11driving the car um and then you'd you'd
24:13often like bring a mechanic with you
24:15um right to basically fix the car when
24:17it broke they were still getting
24:19everything to work
24:20um and so you and your mechanic or
24:21whatever your family you'd be out you
24:23know motoring along in your car on
24:24whatever dirt road you know dirt road at
24:25the time um and the law was that you had
24:28to employ another guy you had to employ
24:30a guy
24:31um to walk you know 50 feet in front of
24:34the car uh carrying big red flags
24:37right
24:38okay so picture this you're driving
24:40along you're out for a nice Sunday Drive
24:41you've got your kids whatever you got
24:42your mechanic you're you're going along
24:44it you know cars in those days didn't go
24:46very fast but they did go faster than
24:48you could walk and so you're driving
24:49along at whatever 10 20 miles an hour
24:50but according to the lot you have to
24:52have a guy in front of you on foot like
24:55out in advance and he's got these like
24:57big red flags and you have to follow
24:59this guy because he has to stay in front
25:00of you and so you can only motor along
25:02at whatever the three four miles an hour
25:03you know that this guy can walk and this
25:05guy's like waving the red flags why is
25:06this guy waving the red flags to warn
25:08everybody that a car is coming right
25:11um why why was the explanation that he
25:14needs to warn you know people that a car
25:15is coming well because the car might
25:17scare the horses right so like you know
25:20if the car comes along it's making noise
25:22it scares the horses you know the horses
25:24you know whatever you know that most of
25:25us on the road at that time you know
25:27they freak out or you know but
25:28bystanders freak out people get hurt
25:29like this would be really bad
25:31um and so so literally it's like okay
25:33that was how the car got rolled out the
25:35the most advanced form of this law that
25:36I've been able to find
25:37um went a step further uh it said
25:40basically if you're driving along and
25:42you actually see a horse coming at you
25:44you see somebody on a horse coming out
25:46the other direction you have to pull
25:48over to the side of the road you have to
25:50disassemble the car you have to take it
25:52apart
25:53right you and your mechanic would take
25:55the car apart and you have to hide the
25:57parts of the car so that the horse can't
25:58see them
25:59right because the horse might get scared
26:01right get scared by the appearance of
26:02the car and then when the horse goes by
26:04you can then reassemble your car right
26:06and keep going right and of course you
26:08look back today you're just like okay
26:09this is like incredibly comical like how
26:11could they ever do this and then of
26:12course you exactly your point like
26:13social networking you think of exactly
26:14the technology so then you're like oh
26:15yeah you know they're putting in place
26:17laws that you know 100 years from now
26:18you know the laws that are being put in
26:20place now on a lot of modern technology
26:21topics are going to look just as
26:22silliest thread flag laws but
26:24since nobody ever learns anything you
26:26know history well yesterday we'll repeat
26:28Let me just hit real quick the biology
26:30point on social networking so this is a
26:31really interesting one because he
26:32described the overall Arc or you
26:34describe him as saying the overall Arc
26:36was from this harmless you know cat you
26:37know who cares what your cat had for
26:38breakfast kind of these are silly
26:39trivial things too like this you know
26:41this is like the fundamental threat to
26:42democracy
26:43it was actually a three-step process
26:45right it was it was step one was ignore
26:47right step two in the case of social
26:49networking actually we went through the
26:51whole argument but there was this other
26:52stuff maybe call it step two and a half
26:53which basically is like this is the best
26:55thing ever for democracy right and you
26:57may remember around about 10 years ago
26:59around 2012 basically two things
27:01happened one was Obama got reelected and
27:03the Press went like and this was like at
27:05the time this was like referred to as
27:06like the first Facebook election it was
27:08when Facebook kind of had gone really
27:09mainstream
27:10um and so like there were amazing covers
27:12newspaper stories talking about
27:13literally the story was Facebook saves
27:15democracy right and it was literally
27:17Facebook saves democracy Big Data saves
27:19democracy all of a sudden like you know
27:21politicians thinking about their
27:22messages their voters you know the
27:23correct Canada doesn't get elected you
27:25know this is like the most wonderful
27:26thing for democracy ever
27:27by the way that was also during the Arab
27:29Spring right and social networking of
27:31course got a lot of credit for the the
27:32revolution you know the the at the time
27:34the Democratic revolutions that the uh
27:35you know of the of the Arab Spring and
27:37so there was this like overwhelming
27:38sensation like when social networking
27:40Executives you know in 10 years ago
27:42would go to Washington or Davos or Aspen
27:44or any of these places with fancy people
27:45you know with important titles like they
27:47just hit lavish with praise about how
27:48wonderful this new technology is for
27:49democracy
27:51debolges between 10 years later in the
27:53story has done a complete 180 right now
27:55it's the absolute worst fundamental
27:57possible threat you could have to
27:58democracy because of course it turns out
28:00not just one side can win elections it
28:02turns out the other side can too
28:04um and it turns out the other side also
28:06uses you know uses uses social
28:07networking and runs ads on social
28:08networking and and to your point
28:10basically what's happened is if you
28:12track the people involved the exact same
28:13people have held every single position
28:16right so the exact same experts perfect
28:19you know professors you know pundits
28:22commentators analysts Think Tank People
28:24magazine Publishers political activists
28:27they exact same people have held every
28:29single one of these viewpoints all the
28:31way through this with no attempt at any
28:33point to reconcile their private their
28:35previous points of view and so you know
28:36LT Morrison I think is no longer with us
28:38but he is smiling down from heaven
28:39saying yep that's exactly what I
28:41predicted would happen
28:42yeah I mean it is fascinating to look at
28:46history because you can see these things
28:47repeating and I think this three-step
28:49process is something that people should
28:50you know apply to Technologies of today
28:52and ask like where is that technology or
28:55the way that people are are reacting to
28:57this technology where are we in that
28:59cycle and then I think another
29:00fascinating thing for people to spend
29:02time with is this idea of the way that
29:05we view red flag laws today what will we
29:07view or what will people view in 100
29:09years the same way right like what are
29:11the laws that we're applying to social
29:12or AI or robotics or space that
29:15regulation has its importance but what
29:18laws are we influencing today that will
29:20seem just as outlandish as someone
29:22literally walking in front of a car to
29:24make sure that we don't scare horses so
29:26I would encourage people to think about
29:27that but Mark I want to ask you because
29:29you have had a track record of being
29:31early in right and that's a combination
29:34that not many people can say about
29:36themselves and I think it's important
29:38again taking this framing of people
29:40throughout history being scared always
29:42looking at things from this pessimistic
29:43lens
29:44how have you been able to kind of see
29:46through that noise like what are you
29:48paying attention to when you are
29:49introduced to new technology it's really
29:51really easy to say well these are all
29:53the ways that this technology can go
29:54wrong it's not that easy to say oh I see
29:57this light of how this could go right so
29:59how have you been able to mold that more
30:02optimistic lens on technology and how
30:05have you also maintained that over time
30:07because I think that's an equally hard
30:09problem to solve
30:10yeah yeah so um start by saying like I
30:13have the same instincts as everybody
30:14else right so when I when I read The
30:16Sims book I was like yep that's also
30:17describing me
30:19um so I have the same you know same
30:20Instinct it's like somebody brings you
30:21know something forward and by the way
30:22like right new technologies in the early
30:24stages like they're really Half Baked
30:25you know there's sort of this concept
30:27that the same telep talks about about
30:28tinkering you know it's usually somebody
30:30in a garage or a metaphorical garage a
30:32dorm room or something or a computer lab
30:33somewhere who's basically working on
30:34something it doesn't quite work you know
30:37you you have to like really squint and
30:38see why this would ever be something
30:39that a normal person could could ever
30:40even understand much less use much less
30:42get value out of
30:44um and so you know especially if you're
30:45early you know if you're doing like
30:46early stage investing like we are really
30:48kind of early adopting a new
30:49technologies like you do see these
30:50things when they're early and they're
30:51just not they're just not ready yet and
30:53so you have to you basically the natural
30:55impulse is very clear which is the the
30:56the step one of the Sim cycle which is
30:58basically just ignore so I had the same
31:00instincts as everybody else I think
31:01basically what happened to me
31:03um is basically this kind of this this
31:05whole cycle kind of got beaten into me
31:07um which is basically like a very large
31:10number of times over the last you know
31:1230 years now when I have had that
31:14reaction and that it turns out that
31:16whatever the new technology was turns
31:18out to be a really big deal
31:19um you know it's like if you go through
31:21that Loop enough times like at some
31:23point I don't know it's like the tenth
31:25time or the 15th time or something like
31:27at some point you're just like okay like
31:29I need to stop you know at some point
31:31you realize that basically the cycle is
31:33a form of self-harm like if you want to
31:35be in the Leading Edge of new technology
31:36you basically have to break out of this
31:38cycle you have to basically stop holding
31:39yourself back now there's a couple of
31:42nuances to that right so one is you do
31:44have to squint like you do have to look
31:46at a new unformed thing right then that
31:49and this goes to the step two of the Sim
31:51Sim cycle but basically like rationally
31:53like has all these problems right and
31:55you know and again these problems
31:56usually in our era these problems are
31:58like it's too slow it doesn't scale it's
32:00too expensive you know whatever is too
32:01confusing
32:03um you know it doesn't whatever work
32:04with existing systems like whatever it
32:06is
32:06um uh you know no you know it's or it's
32:08like a network effect thing but nobody's
32:10using it yet so it's got the cold start
32:11problem and so you've got this like list
32:13of reasons why these new things can't
32:15work and you basically have to be
32:16willing to squint and kind of look
32:17through that and say okay you know
32:19basically like you know like what if
32:21those things all get fixed right and
32:23basically right the way that the tech
32:25industry works is is very helpful in
32:27this if you spend right a lot of time
32:28with Engineers what you notice basically
32:29is that list of kind of rational reasons
32:32why something can't work that list is
32:33also the same list of all of the
32:35technology and business opportunities
32:37with that technology right so I always
32:39call that it's the punch list of all the
32:41things for Founders to do
32:43um so how did you get an example crypto
32:44web 3 has been going through this for
32:45the last 10 years right which is you
32:47know crypto web 3 Bitcoin was was
32:48greeted early on ethereum was created
32:50early on as like this can't possibly
32:52work all these different reasons and
32:53basically you know incredible engineers
32:56and entrepreneurs in the crypto web 3
32:58space now are basically fixing all of
32:59those things by the way today is
33:01actually a great day to bring that up
33:02right because today's the day the the
33:04sort of ethereum merged what they call
33:06the merges took place and so ethereum
33:07actually just today switched from the
33:09old method of proof of work to the new
33:11method of proof of stake right one of
33:13the old arguments against crypto right
33:14including ethereum was basically the
33:16proof of Work Burns all this energy like
33:18unnecessarily
33:19um proof of stake doesn't have that
33:20problem and so like quite literally the
33:22ethereum developer Community has
33:23basically taken one of those rational
33:24objections like completely off the table
33:26and that's just like a great example of
33:28how these things actually you know
33:29actually actually do come to work but
33:32here's the other thing and this is also
33:33an important one like you're not always
33:35right like
33:37this way just because every successful
33:40new technology is greeted initially as a
33:42joke right does not mean that every new
33:45technology that's created as a joke is
33:47going to be successful right
33:49yeah and so you're not always right like
33:52sometimes you bet on an early yeah we do
33:54this all the time right in Venture
33:55Capital you bet on an early stage
33:56technology and it actually doesn't work
33:58it actually it actually doesn't happen
34:00it doesn't take it doesn't become real
34:01right I'm not even talking about like
34:03I'm even talking about fraud I'm just
34:05talking about like we thought we had the
34:06idea we thought we had the you know the
34:08sort of you know we've had the right
34:09people working on it you know it just
34:10they just couldn't get the thing to work
34:12or they just couldn't get the thing to
34:13work at the price point that the market
34:14needed or by the way a lot of the times
34:16it's just it was 10 or 20 or 30 years
34:18too early right so virtual reality is a
34:20good example of this like I remember
34:21when there was the first VR wave I
34:23actually worked on a a bit when I was in
34:24college in the in the late 80s like
34:26there was this big thing around virtual
34:28reality at the time and it just turned
34:29out that like you just could build VR
34:31headsets that worked properly 25 years
34:32ago 30 years ago that the technology
34:34wasn't ready yet and and of course you
34:36know today you can
34:37um and so a lot of times it's just being
34:39early but of course being being 30 years
34:40early it's the same as being wrong like
34:42it you know it doesn't help you anyone
34:43everything you're working on fails and
34:44then you have to you have to wait 30
34:46years
34:47um and so you have to be willing you
34:49know if you're going to kind of think in
34:50these terms you have to be willing to be
34:51open to the idea that you're only going
34:52to be right part of the time
34:54right and so and you have to be you have
34:56to be willing to take the chances anyway
34:57you bet you basically and this is kind
34:59of the way I think about it is the
35:00answer to every new the way I think
35:03about it like for our firm is for every
35:05new technology that we're exposed to
35:07right it's like okay does it pass like
35:09the basic sniff test of like okay if
35:10this worked would it be a big deal right
35:12and then it's like are there really
35:13smart people working on getting it to
35:15work and it basically if it passes those
35:17two sniff tests then we should probably
35:19be betting on it today because we will
35:22be wrong some of the time right but we
35:24will also be right early some of the
35:26time and then you know the way Venture
35:27Capital Works startups work is you at
35:29least in theory make more money off the
35:31winners than you than you lose on the
35:32things that don't work
35:34um so so you have to kind of be willing
35:35to kind of tilt into the risk
35:37by the way some people shouldn't do this
35:39right like you know there are people for
35:41whom you know ever being exposed to
35:43failure is just like too psychologically
35:44damaging to them or there's like large
35:46companies you know that maybe shouldn't
35:47necessarily completely re-invent their
35:49entire business on the basis of a new
35:51unproven startup technology or something
35:52but like you know so so this is like a
35:55time and place thing for some people and
35:56not for other people but for those of us
35:57who want to be on the Leading Edge of
35:58new technologies we have to be very
36:00open-minded it's also a function of
36:02venture capital right the business or
36:04the industry that you're in naturally
36:06requires some level of risk so that you
36:08get the reward at the end of the table
36:10but on that note of timing I wanted to
36:14ask you about this because of course
36:16there are examples of specific companies
36:18like I'll just use a simple one segue
36:19Segway didn't work out a bunch of people
36:21thought it would okay so that was truly
36:23something that you know we probably
36:24won't see in the future but when we're
36:26talking about larger Industries you use
36:28VR as an example
36:30are there really examples of
36:32technologies that a bunch of extremely
36:35talented people are working on again
36:36really foundational Technologies whether
36:38it's AI or crypto insert other
36:40foundational technology here that
36:43eventually doesn't work out and I'm
36:45asking you this because actually several
36:47of us on the editorial team were trying
36:49to think of an example and as someone
36:50who has been investing in technology for
36:52so long I was wondering if there has
36:55been a case where so many people have
36:57been wrong well the big probably famous
36:59example was Alchemy
37:01um which is uh it's a l c h e m y so
37:06Alchemy was the technology to transmit
37:08lead into gold
37:10um and uh there was this concept that
37:11you'd be able to you'd be able to build
37:13some form of machine or discover some
37:14material that they actually and this is
37:16like you know 300 years ago now uh they
37:18actually have this tournament called the
37:19Philosopher's Stone and there was and
37:20basically all these smart people trying
37:21to figure out how to basically Adventure
37:23discover the Philosopher's Stone by the
37:24way talk about smart people Isaac Newton
37:26spent 20 years trying to figure this out
37:28right so like maybe the smartest human
37:31being in history of the planet spent 20
37:32years on this
37:34um so at the time you know they were
37:35serious
37:36um
37:37and and you know the and the dream of
37:39course was you know transmuting light
37:40into gold why do they want to do that of
37:42course lead is plentiful and and and and
37:44worthless and gold is you know scarce
37:46and Incredibly valuable and so you know
37:48they were searching for kind of the
37:49magic formula for how to basically
37:50essentially write create wealth you know
37:52basically uh you know kind of
37:53turbocharged economy you know kind of
37:54make Society better in one step and and
37:56you know and they never figured it out
37:58um by the way it's an interesting
38:00question If you happen to know any
38:01material scientists I don't think there
38:03are any active research programs today
38:05um on literally turning lead into gold
38:07but it would be an interesting question
38:08for any material scientist you know
38:10um whether oh there is actually an
38:13example of this um there are now
38:14synthetic diamonds right and so there's
38:16there's now technology for actually
38:17turning carbon into diamonds
38:19um and so you know what one could argue
38:21we did we didn't get gold out the other
38:23end but maybe maybe they got the Diamond
38:24Part to work
38:26um you know but but I but I cite that
38:28example because like you know that was
38:29like 300 years ago
38:30um and you know it wasn't you look back
38:32now and it's like that wasn't really
38:33science since we understand it even even
38:34at that point it was kind of there was
38:36like a lot of religion involved and they
38:38were still you know figuring some really
38:39basic thing I mean this is when Newton
38:41was still working on his like three laws
38:43of like how the universe works and so
38:44they were they were still trying to get
38:45the basics figured out
38:47you know look more recently
38:49um you know look there's a lot of things
38:51people talk about today that aren't
38:52working yet
38:54um and you know we could have a very
38:55long discussion about those
38:57um we obviously we can't see the future
38:59um you mentioned Segway as an example
39:00like I would guess that that comes back
39:02you know I would guess that there will
39:03come a time uh when people will realize
39:06that that actually was a really good
39:07idea um and that there will be you know
39:09well actually it's been a spend a second
39:11on a Segway right so the theory of
39:14Segway actually it was a two-part theory
39:15part part one was the the device itself
39:17and you know it it it it greeted it got
39:20the backlash right up front for a
39:22variety of reasons just like the car did
39:23and so it became kind of this running
39:25joke and if you've if you like the very
39:27funny TV show Arrested Development you
39:28know they they take the goofiest you
39:30know kind of biggest character
39:31in the show they put them on a Segway so
39:32you know it became kind of this running
39:34joke at the time but but the device
39:35itself was only one it was only part one
39:38of the theory part two of the theory was
39:39that cities would get redesigned around
39:40the device
39:41right uh and so the theory basically was
39:44like why are Cities laid out the way
39:46they are cities are laid out the way
39:47they are because of the car right um
39:49I'll give you an example like there are
39:51I think the number is there are
39:52something on the order of two billion
39:54parking spots uh in the United States
39:55right so there's like mass in the total
39:59amount of for parking lots it's
40:00something like there's the parking lots
40:01I think if you put them all together in
40:02the US and something like the car they
40:03would cover the entire state of
40:04Connecticut right it's just this like
40:06massive amount of space devoted to
40:08basically roads and then parking uh you
40:10know for cars and then plus there's all
40:12the issues there's all the safety issues
40:13the cars there's all the you know
40:14pollution issues of cars you know
40:16there's all the noise issues and so
40:17forth and so on so basically with with
40:19the Segway guys at the time thought was
40:20you know really what should happen is
40:22City should get redesigned City should
40:23get redesigned assuming that there are
40:24no cars but you you know you don't just
40:26want people walking around you want
40:27people to move faster than that you
40:29probably don't want to bring horses back
40:31um they have other issues
40:34um and so if you redesign if you design
40:36a city from scratch you could basically
40:37design it with sidewalks and paths and
40:39then you could have like lots of
40:40different Segway power word style right
40:43things including like you know single
40:44passenger ones but also maybe you know
40:46little you know cards before people six
40:47people you could have cargo devices and
40:49so forth and so you know it may be that
40:51just what hasn't happened yet is
40:52nobody's actually trying to build that
40:54city right maybe there just needs to be
40:56a new kind of city and by the way maybe
40:58at some point somebody will do that and
40:59all of a sudden it'll be like wow those
41:01Segway guys you know whatever 40 years
41:02ago we're actually under the right thing
41:04and so if a lot of smart people are
41:05working on something it's like virtually
41:07guaranteed that it's going to happen
41:08it's just a question of when and like I
41:10said the win might be 40 years out and
41:12so it might not like it might not be
41:14those people who get the benefit or who
41:16kind of harvest the gains from doing the
41:18new thing but like It ultimately will
41:19happen and if you go back across many
41:22something we can spend a lot of time on
41:23but if you go back across a lot of
41:25historical Technologies you know it took
41:27like 50 years to get the TV to work you
41:29know there were um Optical Telegraph
41:32systems 50 years before the telegraph
41:34systems that we became familiar with
41:35they had like Optical Telegraph systems
41:38working in Paris in like the 1820s 1830s
41:40the fact machine the fax machine was
41:42invented in the 1870s it wasn't
41:45commercialized until the 1970s took 100
41:47years right
41:49um the computer you know the computer
41:50took like 50 years to get into consumer
41:53form and another 20 years after that to
41:55get into your pocket right and so the
41:57the history here is these things often
41:59just do take a while a long amount of
42:01time and my conclusion from that is
42:03basically it's all going to happen it's
42:04just this sort of massive question of
42:06timing
42:07yeah and on this idea of timing
42:09sometimes all it takes is a change in
42:10regulation a change in another
42:12technology becoming Mass Market that
42:14allows you know a follow-on effect
42:15something that I've heard you talk about
42:17before are kind of like these unlocks
42:20that happen throughout history that
42:21again have follow-on effects and one of
42:23them that you've mentioned from way back
42:25is the ability for people to own land
42:27and how those incentives really spurred
42:30a wave of innovation because people had
42:31the incentive to build on top are there
42:34other unlocks that you're paying
42:35attention to today that you've noticed
42:37let's say in the last five or so years
42:38it could be covid that you know allowed
42:40a bunch of people to work online and
42:41that's you know the next Industrial
42:42Revolution are there things that you
42:44think are really really meaningful from
42:46the last again let's say a couple years
42:49yeah so the the big one the big one is
42:51sort of the post-covet world so so the
42:53big one is kind of you know the rise of
42:54kind of remote work virtual work and the
42:56reason I say that's the big one is
42:58because you know it seems you know it
42:59seems relatively straightforward well I
43:01you know like you and I are recording
43:02this we're in different locations we're
43:03you know we're coming in across webcams
43:05um so it seems like it's just like a new
43:07way to work but it's actually deeper
43:08than that uh for the following reason
43:10which is basically the economic role of
43:13cities for basically all of recorded
43:15human history again going back four
43:16thousand years the role of cities
43:18basically is what it's what economists
43:20they call it agglomeration so the the
43:22role of cities is to basically get a
43:24critical mass of people in a single
43:26place where those people are able to
43:28come together and basically do things
43:30that are greater than those people could
43:31do as individuals right
43:32um and and that ultimately led to the
43:34creation of companies and led to the
43:35creation of like you know all these
43:36technology and science and all these
43:38other things that happen kind of as a
43:39consequence of kind of culture culture
43:41came out of cities like almost
43:42everything today that we would consider
43:43to be kind of good about kind of human
43:45existence you know kind of came out of
43:46the fact that people gathered in cities
43:48um like all the invention basically
43:49takes place in cities and so the role of
43:52the city was basically okay you you want
43:54you basically societally you want to
43:55basically attract the sort of smartest
43:57most ambitious most Innovative most
43:58creative people anywhere in society no
44:00matter where they grow up whether it's
44:01in like a small town or on a farm or you
44:03know by the way in another country
44:04whatever and you want to basically bring
44:06them to a city The Economist also have
44:09this term they call Superstar cities
44:10right um and these are the cities that
44:12basically turn out to be like Ground
44:13Zero for like a you know a fundamentally
44:15kind of revolutionary you know kind of
44:16thing right and become kind of a
44:18permanent Hub and so you know
44:19historically the San Francisco Bay area
44:21has been the Superstar city of
44:23Technology right the the way that works
44:25is if you're a young ambitious
44:26technologist you want to go to the San
44:29Francisco Bay Area you want to be a
44:31small fish in a big pond because you
44:32want to be around all the other smart
44:33people because the collective effect is
44:34going to be so powerful Los Angeles is a
44:37superstar City for you know for film and
44:38television New York is a superstar City
44:40for finance and for fashion and you know
44:42arts and all kinds of things London you
44:44know Paris these you know so these
44:46cities you know these big cities have
44:47played this kind of outside's role in
44:48economic history but they've all been
44:49based on this idea that you have to get
44:51all the smart people together in one
44:53Geographic place so that they can
44:55actually meet each other and talk to
44:56each other and work together and do
44:58projects together bounce ideas off each
44:59other challenge each other
45:01um again this is like a 4 000 year
45:03history of how progress has happened all
45:06of a sudden for the first time in 4 000
45:08years we now have both the technology in
45:10the form of the internet and zoom and
45:13webcams and remote work and
45:14collaboration tools and slack and all
45:15these you know amazing you know
45:16Technologies we have now uh you know the
45:18internet
45:19um and we now have this like sudden
45:21proof right that during the very you
45:24know kind of bad unpleasant dangerous
45:27covet lockdowns it turns out basically
45:29the companies were basically able to
45:30just keep keep running like any any
45:32company with knowledge work was able to
45:34just keep running you know all the way
45:36through coven to to a level of success
45:38that like nobody envisioned was even
45:39possible but you know before covet and
45:41so now of course you got this massive
45:42societal changes underway and by the way
45:44I think the societal changes from covet
45:45are just starting you've got this
45:47massive societal change underway where
45:48all of a sudden people can say like wow
45:50I don't have to be in the San Francisco
45:52Bay area or in New York City or in Paris
45:54or wherever it is in order to be part of
45:56the computer industry or the music
45:58industry or the movie industry or you
46:00know Finance or like whatever it is
46:02by the way like my kids are not going to
46:05have to be there right so even if I'm
46:06raising kids and I'm worried about their
46:07future like they don't necessarily have
46:08to be there so all of a sudden like the
46:10potential to fundamentally disconnect
46:11where people live from where people work
46:15um you know it has basically been open
46:16and then of course if you can separate
46:18the where you can also separate the how
46:20right and so what kind of community
46:23right would be the best for for example
46:25for kids to grow up in are the
46:27communities that we built in the last
46:28hundred years where it's been assumed
46:30that you have to kind of be part of
46:31these you know specific locations to
46:33fully participate in economic life are
46:35these the actual kinds of communities
46:36you want to raise kids in or is there
46:37actually completely different kind of
46:38community you would build if you knew
46:40you didn't have to be you know in a
46:41specific place to be able to have great
46:42jobs and so like and you know a lot we
46:46all probably know people like this like
46:47a lot of people are fundamentally
46:48re-examining like what do they want to
46:50do their lives like do they want like do
46:52they want to work do they want to work
46:54in the industry they're working at
46:55before do they want to work at the
46:57employer they're working at before right
46:58do they want to move to you know another
47:00country like they're you know completely
47:02rethinking right how many kids do they
47:04want to have like whether they want to
47:05have kids like all these things
47:07um you know do they want to get you know
47:08reconnected back you know to the
47:10extended families that they were forced
47:11to move away from all of these like
47:13fundamental questions are are being
47:15asked and and this I think I think 50
47:17years from now I think we'll look back
47:18it'll be like basically the internet and
47:20then this where basically the two big
47:22things that happen
47:23yeah I I have to agree with you I've
47:25been working remotely for probably seven
47:27years now so a little bit before covid
47:29but something that I'm finding
47:30fascinating is this idea of remote work
47:34in my opinion being a technology or at
47:37least there's technologies that enable
47:38it and similar to many other
47:40Technologies as we've talked about
47:41throughout this conversation there is a
47:43substantial backlash and also you know I
47:45have to give credit to the people who
47:47are who are
47:48pushing back on remote work because
47:50there are things to be fixed just like
47:52we talked about every technology has
47:53problems to fix and those are business
47:55opportunities but I want to hear from
47:57you from the perspective that you
47:58mentioned before of this Power Balance
48:02being messed with with ever new
48:03technology and as more people start to
48:06work remotely and reconsider all this
48:08how would you frame the pushback of
48:10remote work with this idea of a power
48:14shift or Society reshuffling
48:17yeah so this really comes up uh I mean
48:20there's a bunch of there's a whole bunch
48:21of angles on this but like the one
48:22that's the one that I hear about all the
48:23time right now is when I talk to big
48:24company CEOs right so you talk to CEOs
48:27of like big Banks or big software
48:28companies right big big big big whatever
48:30you know companies
48:32um you know this basically is the
48:33conversation right because because what
48:35happened is basically you know if you're
48:36the CEO of a big company today you know
48:38you came up in an environment where
48:40everybody was in physical proximity
48:42right you you came up where the whole
48:43the whole way that you came up the whole
48:45way that you played politics and like
48:46got yourself in position that got
48:48yourself exposed to the important people
48:49and got promoted and like all this stuff
48:51you know did work with your teams right
48:53you know the way that you did deals the
48:55way that you like you know had had
48:56relationships with other people in the
48:58industry like you know the way you dealt
48:59with customers it was all based on
49:01in-person proximity right and which
49:03meant either in the office or by or by
49:04the way it meant on their own right
49:05business travel and that's true
49:06basically of like the entire management
49:08hierarchy of like every existing big
49:10company like they're all like that right
49:11and so all of a sudden now you have this
49:13like you have this incredible kind of
49:15you know phase shift happening and so
49:16now it's like okay like a whole bunch of
49:20questions open up like how does the
49:21company organize
49:22um you know what is the balance between
49:24you know kind of you know in person and
49:26remote
49:27um you know how what is what are the
49:29implications of that for the org chart
49:30right you know job job roles change
49:33um geographically where should companies
49:35be located right I'll give you an
49:36example I talked to the head of one one
49:38big company that has based in Manhattan
49:40they've got about 20 of their employees
49:42are these super Advanced knowledge
49:43workers about 80 are kind of back office
49:44white white collar clear co-workers you
49:47know that SEO is like look like the 80
49:48clearly don't need to be in Manhattan
49:50anymore like we can put them in like
49:51South Dakota you know we can pay them
49:52like half as much there will be their
49:54standard of life will be twice as high
49:56um you know they'll be a lot happier
49:59um and uh and you know we can do that
50:01right
50:02um now you know he says I think we still
50:04need to keep the 20 of the creatives
50:05together but like by the way the
50:07creatives get a vote too and if they
50:08decide to leave you know the in-person
50:10job and go remote and work for another
50:12you know company that industry that's
50:13one of the higher remotely like they
50:14have the ability to do that so like a
50:17lot of of these companies I think are
50:18going to like really dramatically
50:19restructure over the course of the next
50:20five years a lot of these CEOs basically
50:23the big company CEOs are like well we
50:25could never go full remote like that's
50:26impossible we can't do it you know
50:28you've got to talk to Startup CEOs and
50:30they're like well maybe we can right and
50:32so like here I'll talk our book for a
50:34second I'll kind of you know um I'll
50:36I'll get as close as I can to kind of
50:37saying that we might have something
50:38figured out
50:39um you know look it may be that the
50:41remote work Revolution is just really
50:43bad for big companies right it just may
50:45be that it takes existing systems and
50:46models for how big companies operate and
50:48it basically breaks them and it may be
50:50that remote work is the kind of thing
50:52that you need to build a new company to
50:53be able to know how to do properly right
50:55because you need to kind of build a
50:56culture from scratch you need to build
50:57systems from scratch you need to build
50:59processes from scratch you need to build
51:00it may just be remote companies just
51:02need to get built differently and it
51:03might actually not be possible to
51:05reconstruct a big old company that's
51:07done things things went away and just
51:08restructure it so they can do things a
51:10completely different way and so you know
51:12this may accelerate the process of the
51:14you know turnover where some big
51:15companies you know go away faster and
51:17some new companies get much bigger
51:18faster like that's a possibility
51:20or by the way you know maybe I'm full of
51:24it right and maybe the opposite is true
51:26like maybe it turns out work just isn't
51:27good enough or maybe it turns out we
51:29actually don't have remote maybe we
51:31don't have the Technologies yet right
51:32maybe we need holographs right maybe we
51:36need you know big teleconferencing rooms
51:38maybe we need you know I don't know
51:39maybe I'll give you an example maybe
51:41every company in a certain size should
51:43own it it should own its own like
51:44literally its own hotel resort right and
51:47so right and so maybe what happens is
51:49basically like every team should be
51:51basically in Residence at like a really
51:53cool like hotel resort location for like
51:55you know a month in the spring and a
51:57month in the fall in a resort and maybe
51:58the company should just be running their
52:00teams through that and unless they do
52:01that kind of thing to be able to have
52:03critical mass the bonding like maybe it
52:05just won't work and like maybe that's a
52:06you know maybe that's a new kind of real
52:07estate development that has to happen
52:09you know to be able to have basically
52:10sort of think about a sort of corporate
52:12Resorts like to be you know right in
52:13other words to be an attractive enough
52:15place to come where you're willing to
52:16actually be away from home for a month
52:17maybe you can even bring your family
52:19with you right but everybody gets to
52:20work together like that you know those
52:21don't exist today
52:23um and so I'm just speculating but like
52:25maybe there are things like that that we
52:27have yet to figure out
52:29um I I just have like a very strong
52:30sense that on the other side of this the
52:32world's going to work very differently I
52:33do too and what you're saying reminds me
52:36of something that when I had a chat with
52:37Neil Stevenson we we talked about which
52:40is when electricity was invented it was
52:42very easy to think okay electricity can
52:44can be applied to lighting okay that
52:46makes sense people can see that line but
52:48the example he gave was electric guitars
52:50not many people when electricity was
52:52first being invented could think oh okay
52:54well we're gonna have electric guitars
52:56from this and I think when you have
52:57these really foundational shifts like
52:59remote work it's very hard to think
53:00about those second third order effects
53:02but you do know they're gonna happen you
53:03don't you just don't always know exactly
53:05how they're going to manifest but I
53:07wanted to ask you quickly because a16z
53:09has moved to the cloud recently was
53:12there an aha moment or was there a
53:14specific thing that got you to change
53:16your mind or were you always kind of you
53:18know coming around to this idea because
53:21a lot of people say you know like strong
53:23opinions weekly held or something like
53:25that but not many people actually
53:26operate that way and so I think it was
53:28interesting to see a16z actually make a
53:30shift of previously being in the office
53:32to uh moving to the cloud so was there
53:35something that kind of unlocked that
53:37yeah so I was very people who know me
53:39will confirm this I was very anti-remote
53:41work basically before covet
53:43um I was probably pretty far on the on
53:45the end of like the spectrum of people
53:47thinking about this without being
53:48open-minded on it and and basically and
53:50and but that was true of us as a firm
53:52right and so we historically ran as a
53:53firm we ran actually a single office we
53:55had a single office excuse me in Menlo
53:57Park we actually even refused to open an
53:58office in San Francisco for for 10 years
54:00because we just we wanted like critical
54:01mass in the office and by the way people
54:04who actually worked or visited our
54:05office kind of between call it 2010 and
54:072020. they will tell you like it was a
54:09it was a hybrid activity like it was it
54:11was it it was a really cool place
54:13um and there was always all this all
54:14this amazing stuff happening all these
54:15amazing people walking around and like
54:16it you know we we wanted that kind of
54:18hot house environment and we got it but
54:21but that meant everybody like had to be
54:22in the office
54:24um and then the other thing I always
54:25maintained was I was like look like
54:26there's this Theory remote work but like
54:28it hasn't yet worked for any company at
54:29any level of scale like the only
54:31companies that have made it work are
54:32very small
54:33um and and then um I said look just look
54:35at the data right and what the data
54:36basically said is the Superstar City
54:38thing I mentioned is basically in full
54:40effect and what the data basically said
54:42was Venture Capital uh it you know the
54:44funding for technology was actually
54:45concentrating more and more into the bay
54:48area right between between 2010 and
54:502020. if you look at just like the money
54:51was flowing more and more into the
54:53single place the people were flowing
54:56more and more into the single place I
54:58mean and to be clear like the valley as
54:59a place was bursting at the seams and
55:01housing became crazily expensive and
55:03transit's a disaster and like the CR you
55:04know of all these issues our politicians
55:06hate us like there's all these issues
55:08but this hot house environment this this
55:10this agglomeration hot house you know
55:13kind of thing was real right and it's
55:15and it's the thing that traditionally
55:16made you know made the value so special
55:18and it's why this was always sort of the
55:20hub for you know this has been the hub
55:21for 40 years where kind of all the you
55:22know almost all the great breakthroughs
55:24and and Technology have been happening
55:26um and so I was very much kind of on
55:28that page so for me it was literally it
55:30was literally going through covet right
55:31and so it was literally you know and we
55:33and again we were looking at this a
55:34couple different levels we were looking
55:35at this level of like how's our farm
55:37going to operate you know under lockdown
55:39we were also thinking about like how are
55:40our companies going to operate under
55:42lockdown and then we were also thinking
55:44about okay how is the industry as a
55:45whole right going to operate under
55:46lockdown like for example like how will
55:49new companies get started if a new
55:50company starts under conditions of
55:52lockdown like how will that actually
55:53happen
55:54um and then basically we we you know on
55:57a completely involuntary you know
55:59footing we we basically ran this
56:00experiment for two years uh and by the
56:03way we did one of the things we did is
56:04we did surveys the entire time so we did
56:06we did repeated sampling of the of the
56:07different constituencies and kind of
56:08asked you know to try to get a data kind
56:10of handled on what was happening and so
56:12it was really interesting because it's
56:13like six months in like people are like
56:14super nervous and it's like are these
56:15companies even going to continue working
56:17and then it's like 12 months in people
56:18are like well actually it turns out
56:20remote work at least for now works just
56:21as well and if anything maybe even
56:23better because people don't have
56:25anything else to do so they're actually
56:26working more right so the new problem is
56:28burnout
56:30um you know 18 months later it was well
56:31you know actually we're going to start
56:33hiring remote people you know now now
56:35that we can do remote work we can now
56:36hire people who don't live you know
56:37you're near the campus so we can hire
56:39more broadly right and and so forth and
56:41so you could actually see in the data
56:43you could actually see basically the the
56:45the the the
56:47preferences and the sort of beliefs
56:50um you know moving and then and then
56:51basically what Ben and I decided with
56:52our you know with our with our
56:53colleagues at the firm basically is like
56:55look the whole the firm is built to live
56:57in the future the firm is built to fund
56:59the best new companies and work with the
57:00best new entrepreneurs building the
57:01future like you know we want to be the
57:03Leading Edge in the industry
57:04um this is such a big change for the
57:06industry that like we have to live it
57:07like it doesn't make any sense to try to
57:09maintain the old model where we're
57:10basically funding the new model like we
57:11have to live the new model
57:12I think it's going very well like having
57:14said that like we're still figuring it
57:16out right and so like you know sure
57:17you're experiencing this it's like we're
57:19still figuring out like so for example
57:20in our firm we we put a big premium on
57:22having off sites like we now take off
57:24sites really seriously we really take
57:26getting people together on a regular
57:27basis very seriously we have like whole
57:29teams inside our firm now that are
57:30devoted just to like orchestrating all
57:32that making making all those all those
57:33happen but like is you know do we have
57:35the right balance of like remote versus
57:37like off-site do we need to have you
57:39know people have more some time do we
57:40have the right tools and systems in
57:42place are we running the first you know
57:43we have the right management practices
57:44and so you know we're we're certainly
57:46still figuring it out but we're
57:47definitely on that path yeah and like we
57:50talked about that comes with time but
57:51the reason I asked you how you made that
57:53shift or almost in in some way changed
57:55your opinion as you got new data is
57:57because I wonder how perhaps we might be
57:59able to do that within the framing of
58:01how people view Innovation and
58:03Technology kind of returning to what we
58:04talked about at the very beginning of
58:06this conversation it does feel like
58:08there is this perception of Technology
58:10of course not everyone holds it that you
58:12know we're in a a bad place or again the
58:14world's getting worse or or insert
58:15negative thing about our current state
58:17of affairs and I think it's really
58:19inspiring at at least at a16z to see
58:22that people do hold this very optimistic
58:24View and I wonder what you think maybe
58:26we can do as a collective as a society
58:29to maybe Orient more around this more
58:32positive view of Technology because from
58:35my understanding and I'd actually love
58:36for you to go into this history it
58:37doesn't sound like this was always the
58:39case that technology I mean specific
58:41Technologies were viewed quite
58:43negatively but a sense around Innovation
58:45I think has been different in the past
58:47is that right
58:49yeah so check that's a good point so
58:51technologies have always kind of gone
58:52through this cycle and I would go so far
58:54as to say like the technology adoption
58:56cycle resistance cycle like I'm not sure
58:58it's actually going to change
59:00um Douglas Adams the the science fiction
59:02author Douglas Adams who wrote The
59:03Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy had
59:04another take on this that sort of both
59:07very fun very funny very serious right
59:09so he said basically it's like uh any
59:11technology that existed before you were
59:13like 15 years old um is just like the
59:15natural Order of Things
59:17um you know any technology that gets
59:18invented between the time when you're
59:20like 15 and 35 is like new and exciting
59:22and cool and Cutting Edge and like maybe
59:23you can make a career in it and then any
59:25new technology that arrives after the
59:27age of 35 is Unholy and against you know
59:29against the against the natural order
59:30right and it's going to bring Doom to
59:32civilization you know another way to
59:34kind of putting the put in the Sim cycle
59:35so so there's a there's a so like the
59:37the the most kind of I don't know the
59:39most negative thing you could say or
59:40something would be like there's just
59:41this like permanent generational
59:42psychological thing this cycle where it
59:46uh another famous wedding it's the great
59:48physicist Max Planck once said uh uh
59:50science advances one funeral at a time
59:53um you're right meaning that like you
59:55know in science you need like the old
59:56senior scientists who have like one
59:57Paradigm to like quite literally die off
59:59so that the young scientists in the new
01:00:00paradigm can actually like take over you
01:00:02know the the sort of pessimistic view
01:00:04would be like this is just so deeply
01:00:06baked into into uh the mentality of how
01:00:08people operate uh psychologically that
01:00:09it's just like the permanent State of
01:00:11Affairs
01:00:12by the way like you know I don't know if
01:00:14that's optimal for society I will tell
01:00:16you that State of Affairs is very good
01:00:18for entrepreneurs right
01:00:20um because if more people in positions
01:00:22of power were more open to new
01:00:23technologies right the the opportunity
01:00:25especially for the young entrepreneur
01:00:27with a breakthrough idea would actually
01:00:28diminish right because the big old
01:00:30companies are already doing all the new
01:00:31things and so it it may be like what one
01:00:34response to me would be like Mark shut
01:00:36up like stop talking to people about
01:00:39this because we actually want everybody
01:00:40in position of power to just assume that
01:00:42all new technologies are stupid and evil
01:00:43because we want all the opportunity to
01:00:45be available to all the kids who are
01:00:46starting all the new companies
01:00:48so so yeah so that side of the thing
01:00:49that's one side of things and then yeah
01:00:50that which you mentioned so this broader
01:00:52societal thing so then there's this
01:00:53broader societal thing that's happening
01:00:54which is basically this the sort of
01:00:56society's
01:00:58different societies have sort of
01:00:59different ethics
01:01:01um uh and belief systems around even
01:01:03just like the fundamental idea of
01:01:05progress right and so I I won't I won't
01:01:07I won't I won't pick on I won't I won't
01:01:09name names but let's just say there are
01:01:10certain Societies in global history that
01:01:13you know at different points in time
01:01:14have decided like we're just not gonna
01:01:16do new things like we're not gonna talk
01:01:18to outside people we're not going to
01:01:20adopt new technologies we're just like I
01:01:22mean there are societies on planet Earth
01:01:23you know I mean North North Korea uh you
01:01:26know there are societies like that today
01:01:27uh well another example you know the
01:01:30Amish like have a entire religion and
01:01:32belief system right around the the fact
01:01:34that they don't adopt new technologies
01:01:35by the way like I'm a I'm a free market
01:01:37three Minds guy like I think people
01:01:39should live how they want if they want
01:01:40to live that way I think that's fine
01:01:41it's a choice you can choose right to
01:01:43not like think progress is a good thing
01:01:45uh to not think the new technology
01:01:46should be adopted I you know I would
01:01:48argue in the fullness of time but you
01:01:49know it's it's hard to have your quality
01:01:52of life be at the same level as if
01:01:54you're you're more open to new
01:01:55technologies but like you know societies
01:01:57do decide that they don't want new
01:01:58technologies
01:01:59um if you kind of look historically at
01:02:01the U.S and more broadly kind of the
01:02:03West
01:02:04um you do basically see this pattern
01:02:07where there was a lot of resistance to
01:02:08new ideas you know call it from the end
01:02:10of the Roman Empire through to basically
01:02:12the Renaissance you know some so-called
01:02:13Dark Ages right so there was like a
01:02:15whatever 1200 year stretch or something
01:02:16where you know not much happened
01:02:19um and then um and then basically you
01:02:22know over the last 500 years like in the
01:02:24west there's sort of this ethos of
01:02:25progress that kind of emerged and you
01:02:27know since it's all Enlightenment and
01:02:28the Scientific Revolution and the
01:02:29Industrial Revolution right and so forth
01:02:31and then you know the rise of
01:02:32protestantism which was very important
01:02:34because it meant that people could seek
01:02:35out the answers to life's mysteries on
01:02:36their own right um and then the rise of
01:02:38what was called natural philosophy that
01:02:40became science and so there was sort of
01:02:42this system that was developed to
01:02:43basically go uncover basically
01:02:45scientific truths and then and then
01:02:46build new technologies and then
01:02:48basically build you know what we
01:02:49consider to be like a modern capitalist
01:02:50economy on top of that
01:02:52um if you asked people in 1880 or 1900
01:02:56um or 1920 or even 1960 if you ask most
01:03:00people if they thought that that whole
01:03:01set of things was a good idea most
01:03:03people would have said yes uh you know
01:03:05they this is a sort of the Eric known as
01:03:07modernity right so this was like
01:03:09basically uh you know this is the era of
01:03:11like you know we want a progress in
01:03:12Civilization we want there to be like
01:03:14you know we want higher standards of
01:03:16living
01:03:16um you know we we you know we we want to
01:03:18be able to look back and say like yeah
01:03:19yes we like we advance civilization as
01:03:22as compared to you know what what our
01:03:24what our forefathers had
01:03:26um and you know and if you read like
01:03:27books written in you know kind of in
01:03:29those eras they you know they only take
01:03:31great pride in in all the progress
01:03:32that's been made you know in the West in
01:03:34the last 50 years that's kind of gone
01:03:35sideways
01:03:37um you know there's an ethos in the west
01:03:38that kind of started in the 60s and
01:03:40extends into our era which basically
01:03:41says well maybe you know a lot of this
01:03:43stuff is not so good maybe it's like bad
01:03:44for the environment maybe it's bad for
01:03:46you know whatever whatever like there's
01:03:48you know there's a whole bunch of
01:03:49different arguments like this and like
01:03:50maybe we've had enough progress maybe
01:03:52we've had enough science maybe we've had
01:03:53enough technology uh you know the the
01:03:55sort of classic example this is like
01:03:57nuclear power right like you know we
01:03:59invented a way to basically have
01:04:00unlimited clean energy and then we just
01:04:02like decided we don't we don't want it
01:04:04you know people in 1920 if you tell
01:04:06people in 1910 that they could have
01:04:08nuclear power like there would be like
01:04:0910 000 nuclear plants like in the United
01:04:11States running today you know but you
01:04:13tell people in 1975 or 19 you know 98 or
01:04:17you know whatever 2022 they can have
01:04:18nuclear power and they're like yeah
01:04:19let's not have any of that and so I
01:04:21think there there has been this sort of
01:04:23negative cultural shift um Tyler Cohen
01:04:25calls this the complacency you know
01:04:27ross.pat calls this uh decadence
01:04:30um you know there's been this kind of
01:04:31shift to like
01:04:32you know things are good enough we don't
01:04:35need more of this uh you know or or the
01:04:37more extreme form which is like all
01:04:38progress is bad like all these new
01:04:39technologies like they're just flat out
01:04:40bad it's all bad it should all stop you
01:04:42know kind of the Unabomber kind of
01:04:44argument right uh yeah but people
01:04:46weren't born with that mentality right
01:04:48like people weren't born with like uh
01:04:50like progress is bad right they've
01:04:52they've learned that and I do wonder is
01:04:54it just because things have been so good
01:04:55right like that we've we've done so well
01:04:58you mentioned specifically this
01:04:59mentality within the West that people no
01:05:02longer have something to strive for even
01:05:05though they certainly do but is that
01:05:07just a reality that things have gone so
01:05:09well that people have obtained this
01:05:11mentality yeah so that's a theory that's
01:05:13a theory some people are calling that
01:05:14it's called upper income trap
01:05:16um so basically it's like the theory
01:05:18basically is yeah once people hit like
01:05:19an upper middle class standard of living
01:05:22um where they're kind of like you know
01:05:23they got a house they got a car you know
01:05:24they got whatever they got you know
01:05:25college they got you know hospital
01:05:26nearby and like they got you know
01:05:28Netflix they've got like whatever you
01:05:31know
01:05:32um you know good restaurants nearby
01:05:33whatever like at some point they're just
01:05:34like damn like it's fine you know it's
01:05:37good enough uh you know anything you
01:05:38know anything beyond this is probably
01:05:40excessive um you know some people are
01:05:42joking right now that this explains
01:05:43What's called the Fermi Paradox so the
01:05:46the Fermi Paradox is this question of
01:05:47like why do we not know of other like
01:05:49basically civilizations in the Galaxy
01:05:51like why why you know why do we not know
01:05:53of any like alien civilizations like
01:05:55there's you know billions and billions
01:05:56of planets like throughout the Universe
01:05:57and like we should be able to like pick
01:05:59up signals and we should be able to get
01:06:00like you know TV broadcasts or whatever
01:06:02further civilizations traveling across
01:06:04space and like we should know about
01:06:05others and like basically what why
01:06:06aren't you know why is it still after
01:06:07all this time with all these radio
01:06:08telescopes it's just still you know
01:06:10Humanity on planet Earth and the so this
01:06:12argument basically goes it's basically
01:06:13this the same thing it's just like yeah
01:06:15other species of aliens develop the same
01:06:18level of upper middle class lifestyle
01:06:19that we have and then they all just kind
01:06:20of shrugged and said
01:06:21you know well you know look you know
01:06:25here we sit like so mankind you know we
01:06:26went to the moon like we went to the
01:06:28freaking Moon
01:06:29um we went to the moon a lot
01:06:31um we went to the moon a bunch of times
01:06:32I think the last time we went to the
01:06:34moon I think the last time humanity went
01:06:35to the moon was in like 1972 or 73 right
01:06:39and so I'm pretty sure that's 1970 1972
01:06:42right so it's been 50 years since we
01:06:44went to the moon and like our answer to
01:06:46that is
01:06:47right and like you know Elon comes out
01:06:49and he's like let's go to Mars and
01:06:50everybody's like wow you know I I guess
01:06:52we could like nobody ever really you
01:06:55know nobody suggests you know like in
01:06:571972 it was like the obvious next step
01:06:59is of course you go to Mars right
01:07:00because first you go to the Moon then
01:07:01you go to Mars right then you go to
01:07:02Jupiter right and then at some point
01:07:04you're going other places like you're
01:07:05going other solar systems like of course
01:07:07this is like the arc that you want to be
01:07:08on and you know we in our Advanced era
01:07:11just decided yeah like let's not do it
01:07:15um so yeah I think there's I think
01:07:17there's something to that you know this
01:07:19this gets into you know theories of
01:07:21social you know change and you know so
01:07:23societal forces political forces
01:07:26religious forces I mean I've got I've
01:07:28got theories for hours on kind of how we
01:07:29we got here and what the problem is
01:07:32um you know but it it I say it very
01:07:33rapidly gets political uh you know it's
01:07:35hard to talk about kind of societal
01:07:37structure without getting into politics
01:07:38and so I try not to get kind of too kind
01:07:40of kind of kind of fully say what I
01:07:43think on some of these topics but it is
01:07:45just this like prevailing ethos and like
01:07:47one way to think about it is if you
01:07:48think about socially it's like basically
01:07:50there are three areas of human existence
01:07:51there was like pre-modern which was
01:07:53basically like caves all the way up
01:07:55through like kings right and then there
01:07:57was Modern which is like science
01:07:59technology democracy you know capitalism
01:08:02um and then in progress and then now you
01:08:05could argue like we're in this
01:08:06post-modern phase where we're just gonna
01:08:08like sit around and argue all the time
01:08:09instead of actually doing anything
01:08:11you know yeah maybe like I I would like
01:08:16to believe that this is not you know I
01:08:18would like to believe Netflix and chill
01:08:19is not the terminal point of humanity
01:08:21well I I think this this picture that
01:08:23you're painting of a bunch of other
01:08:25alien species getting so complacent that
01:08:28they just decided never to venture out
01:08:29or maybe they discovered VR or just went
01:08:32into their screens the way that a lot of
01:08:33people are going today but
01:08:35um I want to just quickly ask you about
01:08:39what you're excited about because you
01:08:41are someone amongst there still is a
01:08:44large cohort of people who are excited
01:08:45to go to Mars or to take things further
01:08:49than we ever have before so I think
01:08:51that's exciting and I think many people
01:08:52take inspiration from that
01:08:54um So within that Dimension like what
01:08:57are you excited about we already talked
01:08:58about this like kind of next Industrial
01:09:00Revolution through remote work but are
01:09:02there other things where you're like wow
01:09:04this is really game changing and this is
01:09:05really exciting and I'm glad that us as
01:09:07a society have smart people working on
01:09:09this yeah there's a bunch of things I
01:09:11mean there's a bunch of like specific
01:09:12Technologies and so I mean the easy ones
01:09:14to kind of bring up you know kind of off
01:09:16the cuff it's it's you know AI like it's
01:09:18just like it's amazing what's happening
01:09:19with machine learning right now
01:09:21um and then biotech like the genomic
01:09:23Revolution is like a really big deal
01:09:25um and there's all kinds of questions I
01:09:26mean we're just seeing mind-blowing
01:09:28Concepts now on that front
01:09:30um and then we I won't reveal it but we
01:09:31saw one the other day where like I
01:09:33literally had to stop my tracks my jaw
01:09:34hit the floor I had to spend like the
01:09:35next hour just like processing what I
01:09:37just seen
01:09:38um and so there's um you know there's
01:09:41it's like oh my God like this could you
01:09:42know it's one of those literally like
01:09:43this could change everything moments
01:09:45um so so biotech's going through a lot
01:09:47of really you know kind of profound
01:09:48change and then um and then crypto web 3
01:09:50you know is we you know we've we've
01:09:51talked about a length before as a firm
01:09:53but like is I think you know very
01:09:54profound
01:09:55um so you know there's a there's a
01:09:57member there's a bunch of others those
01:09:58are like three big ones but like there's
01:09:59a whole bunch of other spaces that are
01:10:01like that um you know actually space you
01:10:03know yeah Elon God bless him it's like
01:10:04reinvigorated you know the whole idea of
01:10:06space he's what did he do the other day
01:10:08he tweeted his like he's got that he's
01:10:09just talking about like he said he said
01:10:11the other day on Twitter he said um they
01:10:13have not yet discovered an upper limit
01:10:15on how many launches they can do with
01:10:16the same rocket
01:10:18um right and and it's like like rockets
01:10:20went from like disposable which is like
01:10:23one and done right all the way to like
01:10:25he's not sure you know he just doesn't
01:10:26know it's like 50 times 500 times 5 000
01:10:28times you know we'll see and so like you
01:10:30know really really revolutionary things
01:10:32happening uh on that front which is
01:10:34exciting um you know a couple other big
01:10:37things I would highlight so one is just
01:10:39like the the the long-term kind of
01:10:40implications of the the internet I think
01:10:42are still in the early stages and and
01:10:44one that you know I think is kind of a
01:10:46that's in the background but it's like
01:10:47really important relevant everything
01:10:48we've been discussing is that like most
01:10:51people in most of history have not had
01:10:53access to the Leading Edge right no no
01:10:55you know most people throughout human
01:10:56history who have been like super smart
01:10:58and super curious and super ambitious
01:11:00and willing to work hard you know most
01:11:02of them have not ever gotten to one of
01:11:04these you know cities that I was talking
01:11:05about most of them never worked in an
01:11:07advanced field like most of them were
01:11:08doing subsistence farming or they were
01:11:10working in you know other kinds of you
01:11:11know whatever they were doing whatever
01:11:12was the local thing to do they never got
01:11:14an opportunity you know most even Just
01:11:16Like Music most of the people who could
01:11:18have composed great music never got the
01:11:19chance to you know they never got the
01:11:21training they never they never had
01:11:22access to the culture they never had the
01:11:23ability to produce music like they just
01:11:24couldn't do it and you could say that's
01:11:26true of everything from music to Art to
01:11:27books to you know to science to like
01:11:29every every field of human activity and
01:11:31you know the internet really is like the
01:11:33great equalizer leveler opportunity
01:11:35machine right for basically anybody in
01:11:37the planet who's curious with an
01:11:38internet connection uh to be able to
01:11:40learn and explore and start to create
01:11:42and start to join and meet like-minded
01:11:43people so there's a collective effect
01:11:46like like in my optimistic moments I
01:11:48kind of think of it as like Humanity as
01:11:50sort of a group group uh organism like
01:11:52like the true Global Society like is
01:11:55actually just waking up for the first
01:11:56time
01:11:57um as a consequence of being connected
01:11:59you know all connected online and and of
01:12:02course there's there's good aspects of
01:12:03that and maybe bad aspects to that but
01:12:04it it is sort of this this this
01:12:06fundamental thing is happening and so
01:12:07you know hopefully we will discover that
01:12:09there are you know I don't know what the
01:12:11number is but 10 or 100 or a thousand or
01:12:12ten thousand or a million more people
01:12:13around the world who could be doing a
01:12:15really original creative work who just
01:12:17never had the chance in Prior
01:12:18generations and all of a sudden you know
01:12:20you can imagine things progressing much
01:12:21faster as a result of that
01:12:23yeah I think even another aspect of that
01:12:26is more people who are coming online you
01:12:28are having them get access to remote
01:12:30work and you know another second order
01:12:31effect of that is that remote tends to
01:12:33be more asynchronous so certain people
01:12:35don't always benefit from the nine to
01:12:37five as an example and you know I saw
01:12:39this infographic today of just like the
01:12:42schedules of all these luminaries from
01:12:44back in the day who had created
01:12:45wonderful things and they were all over
01:12:47the place so that's just again one
01:12:49example of as more people get access to
01:12:52this information as more people have
01:12:53access to different types of schedules
01:12:54or different types of companies or
01:12:55people facilitated through the internet
01:12:58I think we're going to be really
01:12:59surprised by what comes out of that yeah
01:13:01that's right that's right yeah so I
01:13:04think I think one
01:13:05thing I really want to ask you about is
01:13:08how Society values certain things and
01:13:11I've heard you talk about this to an
01:13:12extent before but
01:13:13Society will fluctuate throughout time
01:13:15and and different people within that
01:13:17Society will value different things but
01:13:19society as a whole does seem to find
01:13:21virtue in in certain things at certain
01:13:23times so for example you mentioned
01:13:24before in history maybe entrepreneurs
01:13:26were valued more so as people built
01:13:28things Society rewarded that type of
01:13:30achievement how do you view that
01:13:32changing today what what do you think
01:13:34Society is valuing today and perhaps if
01:13:36you're willing to share what do you wish
01:13:38Society valued more so basically there's
01:13:40this Theory this guy James Burnham um
01:13:42articulated this Theory uh back in
01:13:44actually the 1940s that I think applies
01:13:47um and he called it the time he called
01:13:49the managerial Revolution
01:13:51um and so basically what he said was
01:13:53they're basically two phases to
01:13:55capitalism
01:13:56um there were there was basically what
01:13:57he called the face of Bourgeois
01:13:59capitalism which is sort of famously the
01:14:01sort of phase that you know the robber
01:14:02bear you know the robber barons and then
01:14:04you know the phase that the Communists
01:14:05hated and like all you know the right
01:14:06the rise to kind of Bourgeois culture
01:14:08um you know and and this is that you
01:14:10know the Bourgeois capitalism era was
01:14:12the era of like Henry Ford and Thomas
01:14:13Edison and Carnegie and you know kind of
01:14:16all you know all these JP Morgan and and
01:14:18all of these kind of you know kind of
01:14:19iconic Henry Ford all these kind of
01:14:21business Builders uh you know who built
01:14:23the companies off often name the
01:14:24companies after themselves often around
01:14:25the companies their entire lives kind of
01:14:27drove the companies through kind of
01:14:28sheer force of personal kind of uh you
01:14:30know kind of animal magnetism and force
01:14:33um and then he said basically there's an
01:14:34evolution that takes place and it kind
01:14:36of started in the 30s and 40s and
01:14:37extends into our period and he called
01:14:40that the air of managerial capitalism
01:14:42um or just more generally he called it
01:14:44managerialism
01:14:46um and basically the idea there is it's
01:14:48sort of the second phase
01:14:50um and of capitalism and it's basically
01:14:52the phase at which you can no longer
01:14:55just have a guy you know you can no
01:14:57longer just have a Henry Ford or
01:14:59whatever who's just got a car company
01:15:00called for it and he just like orders
01:15:01everybody around and tells everybody
01:15:02what to do like that basically modern
01:15:05business modern technology right modern
01:15:08society it's too complicated for that
01:15:12um and so you're not basically the model
01:15:14of capitalism goes from the basically
01:15:15sole proprietorships in the Bourgeois
01:15:17era right to basically what you'd
01:15:19consider to be like the modern
01:15:20multinational you know Delaware C
01:15:23corporation with like a board of
01:15:24directors and an executive management
01:15:25team and a CEO and the CEO is probably
01:15:28not the founder in fact the CEO has
01:15:30probably trained at a business school
01:15:31you know like Henry Ford never went to
01:15:34business school right uh but you know
01:15:36you know they got you know Jim Farley
01:15:38was running I haven't checked but I'm
01:15:39sure Jim probably was running for today
01:15:40I'm sure that he did right so like you
01:15:42know all of a sudden it's basically like
01:15:43you have the basically you said you have
01:15:45the rise of sort of the managerial class
01:15:46so you have the rise of basically these
01:15:49people who are sort of technocratic
01:15:51experts who would never start their own
01:15:53thing like they would never invent the
01:15:55car or they would never you know start
01:15:57the car company
01:15:58um but but they are necessary to run the
01:16:01large-scale industrial organization that
01:16:03is like a modern you know giant car
01:16:05company or a modern giant electrical
01:16:06Grid or a modern giant telephone Network
01:16:08or a modern giant whatever you name it
01:16:10chip company like whatever it is
01:16:13um and so and it's a little bit if you
01:16:14think about it's a little bit of like
01:16:15basically founder-led companies to
01:16:17basically quote unquote professional CEO
01:16:19LED companies you know it's basically
01:16:21top-down kind of dictatorial management
01:16:23versus kind of Bottoms Up consensus
01:16:25management
01:16:27um it's basically the principal running
01:16:29the company right with his like often
01:16:30with his name on the line his entire net
01:16:33worth is in the company and like his
01:16:34name is on the line
01:16:35um to you know what what you know you
01:16:37refer to as the principal agent problem
01:16:39which is okay these companies are run by
01:16:40people but like you know are these
01:16:42people really going to be with the
01:16:43company for the next 30 Years you know
01:16:45they get paid annually or their
01:16:47incentives more annual as opposed to
01:16:48long term
01:16:49um and what Vernon basically said was
01:16:51this is an inevitable process to go from
01:16:54Bourgeois capitalism to managerial
01:16:55capitalism it's inevitable because of
01:16:57scale and complexity right and and you
01:17:00you can't you know Henry Ford today
01:17:02could not run for a motor company like
01:17:03it's too big and complicated you need a
01:17:05different skill set
01:17:06um but he said look it it is a very
01:17:08different it is a very big social
01:17:10cultural change and it's a change
01:17:11basically from valuing right agre you
01:17:14know sort of individual aggression uh
01:17:16individual Merit individual achievement
01:17:18individual accomplishment individual
01:17:20force of will right to a much more
01:17:23Collective right way of operating right
01:17:25groups groups operating in sort of
01:17:28consensus collaborative form you know
01:17:30people haven't come to agreement on
01:17:31things committees bureaucracy right and
01:17:34he basically decided sort of you know
01:17:35stage one stage two the way I do kind of
01:17:37what we do like in Venture Capital what
01:17:39we do is we basically are we're
01:17:42basically the throwback so the startups
01:17:44that we fund are being funded we we fund
01:17:46startups that fit that old model like
01:17:48we're trying to find the next generation
01:17:49of Henry Ford's right and and um and um
01:17:52and Andrew carnegies and so forth and
01:17:54you know Leela Stanford you know the the
01:17:55railroad guy who you know ultimately
01:17:57funded Stanford University was or was a
01:17:59robber baron in the 1880s we're trying
01:18:01to basically go find those sort of
01:18:02modern Bourgeois capitalists who are
01:18:04kind of Throwbacks to the old model why
01:18:06are we doing that because like that's
01:18:08the only way to do something new right
01:18:10that was the model for doing new things
01:18:12all these things used to be new like if
01:18:14you want to do anything new today that
01:18:15is the model you do need to bring back
01:18:17this model of capitalism
01:18:19um and then basically we work with our
01:18:21companies to try and basically keep them
01:18:22from basically just turning into you
01:18:25know sort of this you know kind of
01:18:26board-like managerial capitalism kind of
01:18:28outcome on the other side becoming just
01:18:29like every other big company which by
01:18:31the way many of them kind of Follow that
01:18:33path and many of them just become like
01:18:34the companies just like all the rest of
01:18:35the companies end up being run by
01:18:36professional CEOs and that that's just
01:18:38kind of I was going to quickly ask how
01:18:39do you stop that I don't know that you
01:18:41do well so Burnham would say that you
01:18:43don't like Vernon would say that it's
01:18:45inevitable process basically he's like
01:18:47what Vernon would say if he was talking
01:18:48to me is be like okay look smart guy
01:18:49you're just going to keep repeating
01:18:51history because you're going to start
01:18:52these companies you're going to have a
01:18:53Henry Ford kind of character in charge
01:18:54of them at some point they're going to
01:18:55reach a level of scale and complexity
01:18:57where like one guy just can't like run
01:18:59everything and you're going to need to
01:19:00bring in the the experts right the
01:19:02experts the technically trained experts
01:19:05the managers right the people with like
01:19:07business school degrees the people with
01:19:09like you know the people who have grown
01:19:11up basically getting trained to run
01:19:12large-scale systems
01:19:14um and you know these companies are
01:19:16naturally going to evolve kind of in in
01:19:17that direction
01:19:19um
01:19:20okay so there's all that and then and
01:19:22then Bruno made the following point is
01:19:23he said look the transition from
01:19:25Bourgeois capitalism to managerial
01:19:26capitalism is not just happening in
01:19:28business it's happening everywhere else
01:19:30in life it's happening everywhere else
01:19:31in our society so for example it's also
01:19:34happening in the government right and so
01:19:36the government right just take the U.S
01:19:38federal government as an example like
01:19:40there's has basically been three
01:19:42different forms of federal government in
01:19:43the last hundred years there was sort of
01:19:45the pre-fdr era in which the federal
01:19:46government was just basically small and
01:19:48basically not very relevant and then
01:19:50there was the FDR era where he basically
01:19:52appointed himself King when he made
01:19:54himself basically essentially the Henry
01:19:56Ford of the government or something and
01:19:57then he basically just like told
01:19:58everybody what to do and that was you
01:20:00know the New Deal in World War II and
01:20:01like all this stuff and serving four
01:20:02terms and and sort of this this model of
01:20:04the imperial presidency
01:20:06um and then there's sort of the model
01:20:07the government we have today which is
01:20:09it's just basically bureaucrats it's
01:20:10politicians and bureaucrats as far as
01:20:12the eye can see well that's not how
01:20:13these this it's not structurally how
01:20:15anything is supposed to be run anymore
01:20:17you're not supposed to just have a guy
01:20:18who just tells you what to do you're
01:20:19supposed to have process you're supposed
01:20:21to have managers you're supposed to have
01:20:22experts right you're supposed to have
01:20:24professors you're supposed to have think
01:20:25tanks you're supposed to have the Press
01:20:27everybody's supposed to weigh in you're
01:20:28supposed to have this big conversation
01:20:29everybody's supposed to get along
01:20:30everything has to be negotiated right
01:20:32and so basically what Brandon would say
01:20:34is like like the entire Society
01:20:36transitioned from kind of
01:20:37individualistic
01:20:39um to basically collectivist or let's
01:20:41call it bureaucratic or as he would call
01:20:43it managerial and like basically that
01:20:45that's happened to basically all of
01:20:46society right and this is kind of the
01:20:48experience that you have if you think
01:20:50about this is an individual this is the
01:20:51kind of experience you have because like
01:20:52everywhere you go in life now you're
01:20:54like dealing with some bureaucracy right
01:20:55you're it's like you've got a problem
01:20:57with your cable you know internet hookup
01:20:59you know you're going to talk to the
01:21:00cable companies bureaucracy like you
01:21:02can't call the CEO the cable company and
01:21:04by the way if you did you can't do
01:21:05anything like it's going to be somebody
01:21:06deep in the balls the organization
01:21:07that's going to get your internet to
01:21:08work you know you you need to get your
01:21:10driver's license renewed you can go to
01:21:12the DMV right it's just like everything
01:21:15you do you know you go out to eat and
01:21:16like the place where you go out to eat
01:21:18it's like one of three thousand right
01:21:19restaurants that that company manages
01:21:21that are all identical right everything
01:21:23you do Mass manufacturing everything you
01:21:26buy right has been manufactured by a
01:21:29company's manufactured for scale um all
01:21:31of your entertainment you watch a movie
01:21:32it's the same movie 100 million other
01:21:33people are watching you know it's like
01:21:35you know the actors don't come to your
01:21:36house anymore and like act on a play
01:21:37you're you're watching a mass-produced
01:21:39production you know built by this Jag
01:21:40bureaucracy Hollywood
01:21:42um so and you're like wow this movie it
01:21:45seems like I've seen this movie like 80
01:21:46times before you know why aren't they
01:21:47making like more creative movies well
01:21:48it's because it's movie making is a
01:21:50machine now right it's a you know movies
01:21:51cost 300 million dollars and there's
01:21:52like a whole process and a whole
01:21:53bureaucracy for making these things and
01:21:55so what Brandon would say basically is
01:21:57the whole the whole country the whole
01:21:59society has evolved into this kind of
01:22:01bureaucratic managerialism which and you
01:22:04know another word for that is just
01:22:05stagnation right it's just like the
01:22:06whole the whole system is on autopilot
01:22:08like the the whole society's not a pilot
01:22:10the government's not a pilot it's all an
01:22:12autopilot and and then you know every
01:22:14once in a while you get any you know you
01:22:16get a neon musk right or you know you
01:22:18get the kinds of Founders that we deal
01:22:20with and they they kind of step forward
01:22:21and they say well actually I have a
01:22:22different idea
01:22:24um and then they have the temerity to
01:22:26you know build a new piece of software
01:22:27or to start a new kind of company or to
01:22:29propose some other you know do creative
01:22:30you know creative idea and so anyway you
01:22:32just you you see kind of all these kind
01:22:34of you know perturbations in the force
01:22:36where these kind of creative individuals
01:22:37pop up
01:22:39um and then you know like Society freaks
01:22:41out and everybody's got an opinion whole
01:22:42thing but like you know if there is to
01:22:44be progress right if there are to be new
01:22:46ideas in the world New Concepts new
01:22:48forms of Art New forms of culture new
01:22:50ideas by the way new forms of politics
01:22:52right by the way new you know new new
01:22:54ways to think about how you raise kids
01:22:55like all you know basically anything new
01:22:57it's going to come from some unusual
01:22:59individual basically stepping up and
01:23:01saying I I think that the system is
01:23:03wrong
01:23:04um and so that that you know that that's
01:23:05kind of the fundamental battle that
01:23:06we'll probably spend the rest of our you
01:23:07know probably spend the next thousand
01:23:09years of our civilization trying to
01:23:10basically balance between
01:23:11yeah I mean I can see the example with a
01:23:14company right these companies stagnate
01:23:15and then new startups come and replace
01:23:17them and that's that's something we've
01:23:18seen over and over and over it also
01:23:20happens at the individual level right
01:23:21you see celebrities become popular and
01:23:24then they just go and do the same movie
01:23:25over and over and over because they're
01:23:26trying to retain they're following and
01:23:28then people move on to the next new
01:23:30thing
01:23:31um something that we talked to biology
01:23:32about because he came on to talk about
01:23:33the network state is the need for this
01:23:35kind of Revolution or innovation at the
01:23:38government level or the state level I'm
01:23:40just interested in your perspective on
01:23:41that because we have seen it at the
01:23:43individual level the company level but
01:23:45we are seeing stagnation at that higher
01:23:48government level so are you also
01:23:50thinking that we're going to see some of
01:23:52these smaller Nations or completely new
01:23:54nations come up as we see the stagnation
01:23:57in the western world yeah so there's
01:24:00this great word that gets used um reform
01:24:03right
01:24:05um reform is one of those words where my
01:24:07ears always perk up when I when I see
01:24:08the word because I kind of know the game
01:24:09is being played
01:24:10um and so I'll give you an example I
01:24:12have all these friends who are very into
01:24:13this thing they call it education reform
01:24:15right and so they're you know
01:24:16philanthropists you know they've been
01:24:18successful they've got money and they've
01:24:19got a foundation now and they want to
01:24:20like make the world better and so what
01:24:22do they do they look around they're like
01:24:23what are the big problems in the world
01:24:24and they inevitably you know a lot of a
01:24:26lot of times they end up looking at
01:24:27public education and they're just like
01:24:29wow like public education is like this
01:24:31you know huge force in our society and
01:24:32all these kids you know legally you like
01:24:34have to send your kids to basically a
01:24:35you know most most people legally are
01:24:37required to send their kid to a to a
01:24:39public school
01:24:39and it's like wow like the outcome seem
01:24:41like really bad and like you know we
01:24:44keep injecting more money into these
01:24:45schools and yet the results don't get
01:24:46better and then by the way there's all
01:24:47these problems and there's all this like
01:24:49you know child abuse you know that takes
01:24:50place and there's all this you know
01:24:51these like teachers sex scandals and
01:24:54then there's you know all these
01:24:55controversies over the curriculum and
01:24:57like our kids being taught the right
01:24:58things
01:25:00um and it's just like wow this thing
01:25:01just seems like a giant mess
01:25:03um and so therefore we need education
01:25:04reform right we need to like go into the
01:25:07bureaucracy and we need to like re you
01:25:08know we need to retool it we need to we
01:25:10need to improve it we need to make it
01:25:11better we need to re-engineer it
01:25:13um and and basically the you know the
01:25:14story is kind of always the same which
01:25:15as they go in they do all this work they
01:25:17spend all this money and then basically
01:25:18nothing changes
01:25:20um you know there have been many famous
01:25:21cases of this I won't pick on people
01:25:23um I will say the Gates Foundation has
01:25:25done a lot of work in this area and they
01:25:26actually to their credit they actually
01:25:28came out with a public report about four
01:25:30years ago where they did this
01:25:31retrospective of they did a
01:25:33retrospective of the last 50 years of
01:25:34education reform efforts
01:25:36um and all of the different work that
01:25:37has been done all the different ideas
01:25:38that people have had that like make
01:25:40schools better and they did this big
01:25:42report basically the results report was
01:25:43nothing has worked like nothing has
01:25:45worked for 50 years like there has not
01:25:47been a new idea in 50 years that has
01:25:48been like tried and large-scale
01:25:49education that's had any impact at all
01:25:51basically the whole the whole the whole
01:25:52effort's just been like a complete a
01:25:54complete zero and and I think that
01:25:56that's basically like I've become
01:25:57convinced that's basically universally
01:25:59true uh which is basically things don't
01:26:01get reformed like it's never gonna you
01:26:02know whatever if you have a problem with
01:26:03XYZ existing institution existing system
01:26:06for the reasons we discussed earlier
01:26:07like it's just it's not going to get
01:26:09better it's not going to get reformed
01:26:10you can go spend an arbitrary amount of
01:26:12time and money trying to reform it and
01:26:13improve it it's not going to happen why
01:26:15is it not going to happen because it
01:26:17doesn't you know it doesn't have to
01:26:18happen the people running it don't want
01:26:20it to happen you know this so-called
01:26:22principal agent problem the people in
01:26:24charge aren't actually responsible for
01:26:25it you know there's the incentives
01:26:27problem you know especially when you
01:26:28deal with large bureaucracies people are
01:26:30much more focused on not getting fired
01:26:31than they are on improving anything and
01:26:33so they'll basically but a lot of
01:26:35presidents encountered this right a lot
01:26:36of presidents come into the White House
01:26:37right for the first time and they're
01:26:39like wow I have all these ideas on how
01:26:40to make the government better they issue
01:26:42all these orders and then the
01:26:42bureaucracy just ignores them right
01:26:45because right because the federal
01:26:47government
01:26:48companies like what do they know they
01:26:49know the Press
01:26:51the president's going to be gone in four
01:26:52years or worst case eight years nobody's
01:26:54even remember what that guy tried to do
01:26:56right and so all they they just like
01:26:58they just wait out the politicians right
01:27:00and and then and then nothing changes
01:27:02and so anyway so like it's like like by
01:27:04default it's like stagnation as far as
01:27:06the eye can see I've reached the
01:27:07conclusion this is kind of how I spend
01:27:08my time and this is why I continue to do
01:27:10what I do and I think I'll basically do
01:27:12it forever
01:27:13um is like I really no longer believe in
01:27:15the concept of institutional reform like
01:27:17I think fundamentally it doesn't happen
01:27:18uh or it's so rare as to like be
01:27:21basically something that you can't ever
01:27:22count on I I think basically progress
01:27:24happens by starting new things right and
01:27:26so like if you want to like reform the
01:27:27school system the thing you need to do
01:27:28is build new schools right from scratch
01:27:31like the correct way if you want to have
01:27:33like a new car company if you're Elon
01:27:35Musk and you want to have a car company
01:27:36you don't spend your time trying to go
01:27:37get whatever existing car company to
01:27:39build a better car you just like start
01:27:40the car company and then you know our
01:27:42friend biology extends it you know one
01:27:44step further which is like okay you
01:27:46don't try to reform the country you just
01:27:47like start a new country now
01:27:49the obvious problem the challenge right
01:27:51is like you know there was an era of
01:27:53human history where people were starting
01:27:54new countries like all the countries
01:27:55that we have today are countries at some
01:27:57point that somebody started
01:27:58um you know unfortunately in the modern
01:28:00era like you know the real estate on the
01:28:02planet's kind of been divided up
01:28:04um and you know the world's not really
01:28:05that amenable to you know
01:28:07changing you know which country controls
01:28:10which territory through Conquest like
01:28:11that's kind of frowned upon these days
01:28:13um and so you know starting a new
01:28:15country in the modern era is probably
01:28:17not a process of like going and staking
01:28:19out a bunch of land and then like
01:28:20declaring yourself a new kingdom and
01:28:21then you know planning a bunch of new
01:28:22whatever your own legal system it's
01:28:24probably something else and of course
01:28:25biology's book kind of explores the
01:28:27something else with a with this idea of
01:28:28the network state so you know as usually
01:28:30biology pushes it to a level that you
01:28:32know probably you know beyond where I
01:28:34would um but but I think but I think
01:28:36look I think everything he says
01:28:37everything like his situational analysis
01:28:39I think for sure is 100 correct overall
01:28:41you could say like this is a very
01:28:42depressing analysis of the State of
01:28:44Affairs and like this basically means
01:28:45the world is going to stagnate and like
01:28:46how much is going to happen I I and
01:28:48there's a lot to that there is always
01:28:50this concept of Arbitrage which is like
01:28:52if most of the world is not doing new
01:28:54things then the person who can do
01:28:56something new has an outsized
01:28:57opportunity right and this is the thing
01:28:59that kind of gets me up every morning
01:29:00which is like okay because most of the
01:29:02world will not change because most
01:29:04existing companies won't change because
01:29:05most existing bureaucracies won't change
01:29:07systems won't change people won't change
01:29:09because of that the person who has the
01:29:11genuinely new idea who's willing to put
01:29:12themselves on the line and try to build
01:29:13something new like has a really big
01:29:16outsized opportunity because if they
01:29:17succeed right they'll they'll just
01:29:19they'll they'll they'll they'll get all
01:29:20the benefit they'll get all the gains
01:29:22like they'll they'll they'll all of a
01:29:24sudden be the person who's like building
01:29:25and running everything right because
01:29:27it's not going to be the status quo
01:29:28that's going to adapt right so therefore
01:29:30like all opportunity in the world is
01:29:32still basically available to all of
01:29:34these you know kind of disruptive new
01:29:35entrants
01:29:36um and so basically the more the sort of
01:29:38older world stagnants the bigger the
01:29:40opportunity on the entrepreneurial side
01:29:42um and and honestly like I think that's
01:29:44what keeps us in business basically in
01:29:45perpetuity um is you know the the this
01:29:48the model of kind of entrepreneur
01:29:49capitalism or more generally just
01:29:52entrepreneurialism that you know having
01:29:53new ideas and putting them in the world
01:29:55like that that model is the only source
01:29:56of progress
01:29:57yeah I love the way you put it of not
01:29:59counting on the status quo to innovate I
01:30:02think that by Nature allows the really
01:30:05intelligent the really creative the
01:30:06really Innovative people to have an
01:30:08opportunity right because if we use
01:30:10companies as an example if
01:30:12smart companies that became big stayed
01:30:14smart then we wouldn't have opportunity
01:30:16for new smart people to innovate right
01:30:18there wouldn't be room so I think that's
01:30:20a wonderful place to end because I think
01:30:22throughout this conversation you've
01:30:23highlighted so many opportunities for
01:30:25people to get involved and for new
01:30:27businesses to be built and I think most
01:30:29importantly as we started off this
01:30:30conversation you've really highlighted
01:30:32why it's still important as silly as
01:30:34that sounds it's still so important for
01:30:36us to build because things do stagnate
01:30:37and there is so much more to be built
01:30:40so thanks Mark thank you so much for
01:30:42talking to us today thank you Steph
01:30:46thanks for listening to the a16z podcast
01:30:48if you like this episode don't forget to
01:30:50subscribe here on YouTube to get our
01:30:51exclusive video content
01:30:53we'll see you next time
01:30:55[Music]
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