00:00I think the opportunity maybe has never
00:02been greater to build and monetize a
00:05mobile app quickly make a few million
00:07dollars and retire if that's what you
00:09want to do welcome back to the a16z
00:11podcast and also welcome to what I think
00:13is one of our best episodes to date
00:15today I talked to a16z Consumer partner
00:18Olivia Moore about what I'm calling the
00:20state of the App Store so look a few
00:22weeks ago Apple released a stunning
00:24statistic they said they feed developers
00:26over 320 billion dollars yes billion
00:29since the launch of the App Store in
00:312008 and around the same time I saw
00:33Olivia post a tweet where she'd
00:35basically compiled a list of the top
00:36apps in the US App Store throughout 2022
00:39so in this episode you'll not only get
00:41to hear what made it to the top but also
00:43what they have in common hint a lot of
00:45the big winners are in Social but
00:47perhaps a new wave of social apps we
00:49also get the scoop on not just what it
00:51takes to hit number one but to stay
00:52there and we covered tons of examples
00:55many of which I had never heard of
00:56things like a new age Beanie Baby app a
00:58viral talking dog an app from 2012 that
01:01finally hit the top 10 and a Chinese app
01:04that's been number one for majority of
01:05this year and that's not Tick Tock there
01:08are endless learnings about how Founders
01:10can take advantage of these
01:11opportunities including Olivia and I's
01:13Master plans to top the charts ourselves
01:15so stick around to the end if you'd like
01:17to hear that let's get started
01:19as a reminder the content here is for
01:21informational purposes only should not
01:24be taken as legal business tax or
01:25investment advice or be used to evaluate
01:27any investment or security and is not
01:30directed at any investors or potential
01:31investors in any accz fund for more
01:34details please see acc.com disclosures
01:47welcome to the show and I'd love to
01:49start out by hearing how you compiled
01:51this data in the first place
01:53thank you I'm excited to be here and
01:55talk more about this data so I used an
01:58app data source called app follow dot IO
02:01and they publish a daily ranking chart
02:03where they show the top iOS apps every
02:06day based on the Apple App Store ranks
02:09and so I went in for every day of 2022
02:12and I recorded what the top app was for
02:17it took a while but the end result ended
02:19up being pretty interesting because I
02:21was able to run a bunch of numbers and
02:22analysis on the apps that did crack that
02:25number one spot first like Kudos let's
02:28let's all give you know listener claps
02:30for you actually going in every single
02:33day and pulling this data but let's talk
02:35about the results what were the top apps
02:38of 2022 and let's just start with the
02:41top three and then we'll get into some
02:42of the ones that followed so there were
02:44three big winners of 2022 which were be
02:47real which is a new social media app
02:49Tick Tock of course was number two and
02:52then gas app was number three gas app is
02:55an interesting story because it was
02:57actually released later in the year in
02:58the fall so it kind of came from behind
03:00with less time to grab the number three
03:02spot for the year overall I have to say
03:04that I'm not really very active on any
03:08of those three apps so I feel super old
03:10hearing that they are the three topping
03:12the charts but um just to reiterate so
03:15these are the three apps that hit number
03:16one the most yes they spent the most
03:19number of days at the top in the number
03:21one spot on the U.S App Store I feel
03:23like the natural question is are we in a
03:27new age of social because all three of
03:29these happen to be social apps and again
03:31I'm feeling kind of old here but during
03:33my era you know we're thinking of
03:36Facebook we're thinking of Twitter
03:37Instagram Snapchat and none of these
03:41appeared in the top three and so I don't
03:44know what's your what's your take there
03:45are we in like a new age are we
03:48diverging from the past in terms of what
03:50people want in terms of social yeah it's
03:52a great question and none of the the
03:54kind of Usual Suspects the Instagrams
03:56the Snapchats or the Facebooks appeared
03:58in the top at all let alone the top
04:00three the top five apps this year in
04:03terms of days at the top were actually
04:04all social media products and three out
04:07of those five were apps that didn't even
04:09exist two years ago that is definitely
04:12not always the case I pulled the data
04:14for 2021 as well and the top five for
04:18that year was a mix of some social media
04:20but also fintech more utility or
04:23business apps like zoom and then
04:25traditional media apps like kind of HBO
04:27Max to me the fact that Instagram and
04:30Snapchat didn't appear at the top
04:32doesn't necessarily mean they're kind of
04:34dead as products I think part of what it
04:37means is they've saturated the US user
04:39base so they aren't getting a ton of new
04:41downloads every day I also want to think
04:44about how these social apps differ
04:46because it feels like the old generation
04:49of social apps were pretty similar
04:52they're more of like a feed-based social
04:54application and it feels like again I'm
04:57not I'm not native to these three that
04:59made it to the top but they do feel kind
05:02of fundamentally different in what
05:03they're providing to the user I
05:06absolutely agree I think we've seen this
05:08broader shift towards authenticity and
05:10towards more interactive experiences on
05:13social and a way for maybe the
05:15traditional scrollable feed where
05:18everyone has like this perfectly curated
05:20profile and and maybe you post once a
05:22week or once a month three of the kind
05:25of top five apps were new social media
05:28apps Tick Tock is kind of in its own
05:30world there's already a giant company at
05:32this point but be real is a front back
05:34camera that only is live once a day for
05:37a limited period of time so you have to
05:39be very kind of honest about what you're
05:41actually doing it shows both sides of
05:43the camera gas app of course is about
05:45giving Anonymous compliments to friends
05:47mostly aimed towards high schoolers and
05:50then living also made the top five and
05:52this is an app that lets you send kind
05:54of random pictures directly to your
05:56friend's home screen widgets similar to
05:59be real they're usually pretty candid
06:01shots I think those three in common for
06:04me are about having more like delightful
06:07and consistent ways to interact with
06:09like a smaller group of close friends
06:11versus maybe these large feed products
06:14where you're seeing tons of posts from
06:16influencer and Brands and and larger
06:18companies and it's a very kind of
06:20curated experience I also think about
06:22the fact that they're kind of like
06:24pushing back on the previous generation
06:28it feels like you know in in the
06:31generation that I grew up with we
06:33were so heavily curated that the next
06:36generation is like I don't like this I
06:38don't like the fact that everyone looks
06:39like a supermodel on Instagram let's
06:42just be real literally and you know take
06:44pictures of us throughout the day I also
06:46think what you mentioned about the fact
06:48that a lot of these are new apps like
06:50even gas you mentioned like just showed
06:52up in the second part of the year
06:55how hard is it for these apps to stay on
06:58top it also feels like we were in this
07:00Heyday several years ago where something
07:02like a Facebook was top of the charts
07:04for a very long time and there wasn't
07:07really this cyclical nature of like a
07:10new app a new app a new app and today it
07:12feels a little different I don't know if
07:13it's just me no I I absolutely agree
07:16um my data shows that there's kind of a
07:18lot more new number ones every year and
07:21kind of the pace of that is speeding up
07:22every year apple is a little bit
07:25secretive about what actually makes a
07:27number one most people think that the
07:29biggest factor is daily downloads and
07:31then of course they add in maybe some
07:34filtering around okay are people
07:36actually opening the app are they
07:38engaging with it but my data polls show
07:40you need probably around or maybe a
07:43little bit above a hundred thousand
07:45downloads in the US on iOS on any given
07:49day to hit number one whoa okay yeah
07:52that's super high yes
07:54very high and so if you think about the
07:58path of a normal consumer discovering a
08:02100 000 people knowing about that is
08:05huge about that brand new product but
08:08also not everyone who hears about it or
08:10learns about it is actually going to
08:12download it and convert to a user so you
08:14actually probably need millions of
08:16people to hear and learn about your
08:18product over just a couple days to get
08:21to like a hundred thousand downloads a
08:23day and you're competing against like
08:25some of the other number ones this year
08:27were like NBC's peacock streaming
08:29service Planet Fitness doordash HBO Max
08:32these big companies that have tons of
08:34marketing resources my view is that Tick
08:37Tock Instagram wheels and these other
08:39short form video platforms have created
08:42this very unique opportunity where you
08:44can go viral and have something be seen
08:47by 10 million people in a day and shoot
08:49to this top but now every new startup is
08:52competing against all the other startups
08:54that are also trying Tick Tock so it's
08:56still not easy at all is there also an
08:58element of Just Not it being so hard to
09:01get to the top but all also staying at
09:03the top it feels like we have
09:05smaller attention spans people are
09:07excited to move on to the next thing
09:09instead of sticking with the
09:10applications that they know and love is
09:13that just me interpreting the data or
09:16are we actually seeing something here
09:17where it's not only harder to reach the
09:20top but it's also harder to stay at the
09:21top I completely agree that the largest
09:24number of apps that hit number one this
09:26year were number one for just a day or
09:29maybe half a day not that long at all
09:31and more than half of the apps at number
09:33one were up there for less than five
09:36days throughout the whole year not even
09:38five consecutive days what I've seen is
09:41you know it's if you have a tick tock
09:43viral hit you can maybe get a lot of
09:45people to download it but then it needs
09:47to be a very strong product with network
09:50effects that encourages people to share
09:53it via word of mouth and to keep using
09:56it every day beyond that initial oh I
09:58saw this cool video about this app and
10:00I'm gonna download it so my view is it's
10:02in some ways easier to break into the
10:05top dropped and it was five years ago
10:07but it's probably actually quite a bit
10:09harder to stay at the top unless you
10:11have a very kind of magical and
10:13retentive products and how do you think
10:15about creating that product because I
10:17think about so many applications that
10:20are really exciting and play into this
10:22need for us to just have constantly new
10:24things on our screens I mean something
10:26that even comes to mind there is I've
10:28been seeing articles about how people
10:30are speeding up songs or we all are
10:32familiar with like The Tick Tock split
10:34screen it's like we actually need to
10:35pack more information into our content
10:38because we need to have that level of of
10:42Interest how do you build that level of
10:45retention when it does feel like there
10:48is this interest of again novelty like
10:50give me something new all the time I
10:52think it's largely a couple things I
10:54think it's a product question of like
10:55have you built something that kind of
10:57delivers value day after day and ideally
11:00those are network effect products which
11:02means the product gets better the more
11:04people are on it like think about the
11:06early days of Instagram like as more of
11:08your friends came on Instagram it was a
11:10better experience for you and a better
11:12experience for them because you were
11:13seeing a lot more posts of from people
11:15that you know and care about I think the
11:18other interesting element that we're
11:19starting to see companies index or lean
11:22towards more is these hooks within the
11:25product or around the product to
11:28encourage people to both come back but
11:31also to share or broadcast their
11:33behavior so two of the top three this
11:35year be real is one of them and because
11:39the be real drops at the same time per
11:42day for everyone it creates this moment
11:45in the real world actually where
11:47everyone is taking out their phones and
11:49being whether it's in you know a
11:51classroom I've had people do it in
11:53meetings if you're in line for something
11:56and that is a very kind of powerful and
11:59unique like Word of Mouth in real life
12:02moment where if you don't have the be
12:04real and you see everyone get the ding
12:06and pull out their phones you're gonna
12:09gas app is also has a very kind of
12:11clever hook they went in through high
12:13schools the mechanism of the product is
12:15that you vote for which of your friends
12:17is kind of the top under XYZ all very
12:20positive criteria and so it creates this
12:23kind of fomo again in the halls of the
12:25high school where people are saying oh
12:26did you see you know who got this on gas
12:28app or you're getting a notification of
12:30your friend voted for you for this and
12:32it's very hard to resist that kind of
12:34pull when you're both hearing about it
12:36in LA on online and you're seeing the
12:39people around you in real life utilizing
12:41the product yeah your point about be
12:44real made me think of I think it was an
12:45SNL's kit where they were joking about
12:49you know be real popping up during a
12:51bank heist yeah like wait just a second
12:53I need to be real and yeah there is this
12:55like behavioral element where to your
12:57point it feels like you need people to
13:00build these habits and not just
13:02internally but to share them externally
13:04so you can have those Network effects
13:05and Word of Mouth growth but on that
13:08point about growth you mentioned a
13:11hundred thousand downloads in a day that
13:12is huge like any marketing budget
13:15probably can't hit that purely through
13:17paid growth and so there does need to be
13:19this viral element what would you say
13:21about being able to do that effectively
13:23because you know I think about gas app
13:26for example which was recently acquired
13:27prior to the acquisition Nikita the
13:29founder went on the Today Show and had
13:33this big exclusive segment which in the
13:34past would have been like huge for for
13:37an application or a company and he said
13:39he thinks it generated a thousand
13:41downloads so I guess what I'm getting at
13:43is like how do you effectively grow an
13:46app when a lot of the existing channels
13:48just don't really compare to this idea
13:51of Word of Mouth I see word of mouth as
13:54kind of the purest maybe form and most
13:57lasting if you can get it right form of
13:59acquisition just because the barrier
14:02that's probably hardest to overcome like
14:04I mean you can pay people to download
14:06your app you can pay influencers to talk
14:08about it but to get a normal person who
14:10isn't looking for startups every day to
14:13recognize a new product and then go use
14:15it and then tell someone else about it
14:17because it's that valuable or
14:18interesting to them that's kind of the
14:21ultimate to me like the peak of a great
14:22consumer product I do think we still see
14:25like Tick Tock as an organic channel is
14:28still very powerful it's probably harder
14:30to build an audience on Tick Tock
14:32especially as a startup than it was a
14:34year and a half ago or two years ago and
14:37it'll get harder and harder over time
14:39companies are starting to use tick tock
14:42ads which is also interesting again like
14:44low cost for now great channel for now
14:47similar to how Instagram and Facebook
14:49ads got so much more expensive kind of
14:52the Arbitrage opportunity of these new
14:54platforms tends to go away over time
14:56what is interesting and always fun to
14:59see is sometimes there's these big
15:01acquisition moments that aren't at all
15:03orchestrated by the company but
15:05orchestrated by the user base and
15:07they're almost their own kind of special
15:08form of Word of Mouth but at like
15:11massive scale one of the top apps this
15:13year was called Talking Ben the Dog
15:15which is a kids educational science game
15:19where you're taking care of this fluffy
15:21dog and you can ask him questions about
15:24science and do experiments with him but
15:27it went viral after this YouTuber with
15:2915 million subscribers an adult YouTuber
15:32started making videos of himself trying
15:35to debate really serious topics with Ben
15:38and then of course it turned into a meme
15:40and everyone else made their own videos
15:42about it and then this the app was
15:45Suddenly at number one again after being
15:46released you know years and years ago by
15:49by an app Studio who made it for a
15:51completely different use case than than
15:53where it actually took off I know the
15:55users have a mind of their own the the
15:57other story I like was shared by your
15:59sister which was this boating app right
16:01there was a a girl whose father had
16:04created this boating app and then
16:06there's this clip of him at a conference
16:08where he's trying to get people to
16:10download the app and quite frankly it
16:12was really sad or it sparked that
16:14emotion and it just said something like
16:18please help my dad's boating app or
16:20something like that a really really
16:21short video as you said on Tick Tock
16:23which seems to be a place where people
16:25are getting these viral hits and I think
16:28it hit number seven or something in the
16:30app store which maybe people are like oh
16:32number seven is not that high but again
16:33you said hit number one all of these are
16:37social apps General Mass marketed apps
16:40and they require a hundred thousand
16:42downloads so that's still a lot of
16:44downloads in a day a lot of downloads
16:46and it illustrates just the pure
16:48difficulty of getting to number one
16:50because her Tick Tock had more than 20
16:53million views and then she made several
16:56follow-up videos that also had hundreds
16:58of thousands if not millions of views so
17:00if that can't even hit you know number
17:02one for the day then it kind of just
17:04puts into context how much of a
17:06challenge it can be there have been some
17:08other apps which as you said did not hit
17:10number one but still really hit some
17:12traction and I want to talk about the
17:14different categories outside of social
17:16that saw some movement in 2022 so what
17:20were some of those categories that we
17:22saw outside of social there were two or
17:24three kind of themes that to me
17:26dominated the apps at the top this year
17:28and two of them were actually what I see
17:30is Tech shifts or Tech progress that
17:33enable new consumer Behavior so one big
17:36example of that is widgets we saw a
17:38couple of widget apps at at the top at
17:41some point mostly in summer 2022 and
17:44these kind of exploded after Apple made
17:47a change to iOS 16 that allowed users to
17:50put widgets on their home screen of
17:52their phone and also on their lock
17:53screen of their phone so you didn't even
17:55have to unlock the phone and you could
17:56see what popped up on a widget so then
17:58there was a group of new companies noted
18:01for example as one where you could send
18:03little notes to your significant other
18:04or little drawings locket widget was
18:07probably the first one to explode in in
18:09January and then was followed by live-in
18:12widgetable a bunch of other apps that
18:14really capitalized on this kind of not a
18:17full platform shift but kind of a maybe
18:19an operating shift system shift by Apple
18:22that allowed for this
18:24another big Tech shift that became a
18:27trend in top apps was AI of course of
18:31course and that came as mostly in the
18:33fall when models like stable diffusion
18:36became available to fully build into
18:39mobile apps and create experiences where
18:42you didn't have to have your own AI
18:44model as a developer but you could still
18:46allow people to kind of spin up
18:48beautiful art or avatars we saw those
18:50apps basically dominate The Late Q3
18:53early Q4 top charts and the last theme
18:56is actually not at all unique to 2022 in
18:59my opinion but is kind of Evergreen
19:02which is anonymous social apps we see
19:05these pop up pretty consistently every
19:07year when I was a teenager it was like
19:10honesty box on Facebook and then ask FM
19:15gas app was of course probably the best
19:17example of this for 2022. Nikita the
19:20founder just sold the Discord and he
19:22actually developed a very similar app
19:24back in 2016 2017 that he sold to
19:27Facebook that also hit number one for a
19:30while so I think the big lesson there is
19:32like the fomo poll especially for
19:35teenagers of what are my friends saying
19:37about me is very very hard to resist
19:39it's so true and I can think of so many
19:41apps from when I was growing up that
19:44were really successful for a period of
19:45time and then you've seen iterations of
19:47them since and to your point like Nikita
19:49literally just copied what worked before
19:52what he sold to Facebook before and then
19:55repurposed it created gas and has not
19:57had another acquisition so I mean maybe
20:00this is a silly question but is that
20:02worth doing as in if you're if there's a
20:04Founder out there or potential founder
20:06should they just be combing through
20:07previous successful apps like a Yik Yak
20:11for example and just creating the Yik
20:12Yak of 2023 because we've seen mean how
20:17effective they can be and how also kind
20:20of Evergreen they are because there's
20:21these like innate human emotions like
20:23gas up to be complemented or be real to
20:28like to be understood right there's like
20:30these fundamental human emotions that
20:32don't change across Generations I feel
20:35like a consistent debate in the tech
20:36world of like who's gonna build the
20:39first Anonymous social app that has like
20:41true staying power and becomes a billion
20:44dollar company on its own there's
20:46already in 2023 a new app that just
20:49raised a seed round that hit number one
20:51in Germany it's called slay very similar
20:54to gas app and TBH so another example of
20:57kind of a friend playing out I think
21:00there's I mean Nikita himself has said
21:02this there's always going to be a
21:03question of um these apps that are based
21:06around kind of anonymous uh networks can
21:10you really build like a lasting social
21:12network because people aren't really
21:14storing relationships on the the app
21:15they're not really communicating or
21:18direct messaging through the app so they
21:20get very popular very very fast if
21:23there's no maybe Act 2 of the app like
21:25if there's no what's next then they can
21:27also kind of decline very very fast as
21:30that core dense group of people that
21:32joined unravels a little bit more and
21:35moves on to the next thing I also wonder
21:37we've talked already about this
21:38phenomena where it seems like people are
21:41cycling through apps more quickly and if
21:43that really is an underlying
21:46is there maybe an argument to say like
21:49you don't need to last very long and
21:51really the goal is to create some sort
21:53of viral sensation but also build
21:55monetization in from the get-go I mean
21:58gas I feel like is is a good example of
22:00this I think an Akita has publicly said
22:02that they made millions of dollars in
22:05the several months where they were
22:07trending prior to the acquisition and so
22:09ignore the acquisition if someone a
22:11Founder built a successful social app
22:14that trended even for a few months and
22:15made several million dollars like I
22:17would say that's a success it's not a
22:19Fang level success where you go on to be
22:21multi-billion dollar company but I think
22:24maybe would you say there's an argument
22:26to people focusing more on that given
22:28the state of the App Store
22:30oh absolutely I think it all comes down
22:32to what you as a Founder are wanting to
22:34build and I think the opportunity maybe
22:37has never been greater to build and
22:39monetize a mobile app quickly make a few
22:42million dollars and retire if that's
22:44what you want to do uh clearly Nikita is
22:47still building so he's not at the
22:49retirement Point yet um but I think his
22:51one of his last tweets about the app
22:53before the acquisition said they had had
22:55like 10 million downloads and 6 million
22:58in Revenue which is just amazing there
23:00used to be this kind of Paradigm and
23:02consumer where the goal was to build an
23:05app get it to the mainstream get it to
23:07Facebook level Instagram level Millions
23:09if not hundreds of millions of users and
23:12then you would monetize people through
23:13ads like the user kind of becomes the
23:16product and now I'm I've been trying to
23:19pinpoint exactly what it is I think it's
23:21a mix of like Apple pay and Google pay
23:23adoption and saturation people getting
23:26more comfortable making purchases online
23:28maybe it's the younger Generation
23:32Um who is you know happy and feels safe
23:34buying something on their phone versus
23:36my parents generation is still like
23:38suspicious of venmo and thinks their
23:41money is gonna get stolen every time
23:43um but we are seeing many more apps get
23:46big and make money at the same time and
23:49at an early stage in their life lenza is
23:52another really good example of this
23:53which was a number another number one
23:55from late 2022 they are an AI Avatar
23:59company and some of the external app
24:01data estimates say that they made you
24:03know upwards of 20 million dollars in a
24:07couple weeks getting people to buy a
24:09pack of avatars for eight dollars I
24:11certainly participated in that I did too
24:14it's hard to resist if you see everyone
24:16else posting them on Twitter and and it
24:18seems like a fairly minor payment at the
24:20time I think lenza is an interesting one
24:23um because you then want to say like
24:25what's the next Act of the company is
24:27the goal to get people to give you money
24:29once and then they get all the value out
24:31of the product and leave lenza has been
24:34Smart in that they're constantly
24:35releasing new Styles new packs new
24:38avatars they did dog avatars for the
24:41first time a few weeks ago which I
24:43bought so I think once you're on
24:44someone's phone and can send them
24:46notifications there is a potential to
24:48kind of continue to capitalize on that
24:49down the line yeah I like your point
24:52about the younger generation being maybe
24:54more willing to spend money online
24:57because it reminds me of how not that
25:00long ago people were really resistant to
25:02even spending 99 cents on an app and I
25:05know there's a difference some of these
25:07apps are charging up front versus having
25:09in-app purchases versus monetizing in
25:11other ways but it's kind of interesting
25:13how there was a period of time where
25:15people were just really resistant to
25:17paying for apps or things within apps
25:20even if they brought much more value
25:21than for example five dollar coffee they
25:24were like no way this is unfair this
25:27should be free and I think there is a
25:29shift there where people maybe it's just
25:31the younger generation growing up with
25:33these apps and and seeing that people
25:35are starting to pay for them but it does
25:37seem like there's a more willingness to
25:39spend but I'm also curious to know
25:41across the different apps that you've
25:43explored already mentioned lenza as an
25:44example like are there any themes or
25:47learnings from the ways that people have
25:48decided to monetize is it better to
25:51charge up front for the app is it better
25:53to have these in-app purchases and if
25:56you're doing in-app purchases it's like
25:57are there learnings or themes in terms
25:59of how people have been able to
26:01effectively get people to give their
26:04it's a very good question and I actually
26:06feel that kind of gaming companies both
26:08apps and and just traditional games have
26:10kind of you know paved the way here in
26:13gaming they have kind of this concept of
26:15like the whales which is that of the
26:18vast majority of your user base is
26:20probably going to be free users or
26:22generate very minimal Revenue but then
26:24you'll have some people who spend
26:26hundreds if not thousands of dollars in
26:29in you know every month on your app and
26:31and it really adds up over the course of
26:33a year and so the goal is to kind of
26:36acquire free users as much as possible
26:38and then convert you know the ones you
26:40can into that whale type Behavior I
26:43still think we've yet to see an app hit
26:45number one that charges for a download
26:47for some reason that kind of cognitive
26:49shift of like I can't even see what it
26:52does or how it works before I pay still
26:55seems to be like a barrier for most
26:56consumers what we're seeing most apps do
26:59is in-app purchases similar to games and
27:02that's something like what lenza did
27:04where you know you get to the moment
27:06where you can deliver a lot of value and
27:08they'll pay for that specific item or
27:10that specific deliverable subscriptions
27:12are maybe the more classic for Consumer
27:14apps of how they monetize I wrote about
27:17this the other day but we had this first
27:19wave of consumer subscription apps that
27:21were all charging sixty dollars a year
27:23like think about the comms of the world
27:26the head spaces all the fitness apps
27:28many of those are amazing companies but
27:30it's hard to generate hundreds of
27:32millions of dollars of Revenue on on
27:34things like those so we're seeing
27:37subscription app developers start to be
27:38a little more aggressive in their
27:41pricing whether that's charge everyone
27:43more if they're willing to convert to
27:45paid or have different tiers of pricing
27:48Tinder for example is supposedly testing
27:54there's been a lot of skepticism about
27:56that but I mean from my perspective it
28:00doesn't hurt the people paying less and
28:01if someone's willing to pay 500 and feel
28:04like Tinder is delivering that value to
28:06them with maybe a more sophisticated
28:08product like I think they should go for
28:10it I agree and it actually fits what
28:12we've seen in many other Industries to
28:14use apparel as an example the messy
28:17middle is what typically doesn't do so
28:19well it's really the the really cheap
28:21options that resonate with one user base
28:24or Firebase and then the really
28:26expensive luxury items that do really
28:28well for the people who want that and
28:30want to be able to signal in certain
28:31ways and again that messy middle doesn't
28:33really serve anyone and so I don't know
28:35I hear the skepticism but I'm very
28:37interested to see how Tinder works
28:39because there's also you know the
28:40argument with dating apps which is that
28:42they don't have the the aligned
28:44incentives to actually want to match you
28:46because they want you on that forever so
28:48yeah that'll that'll be fascinating and
28:51I I think you can do it by charging the
28:53user directly but we're also seeing
28:57um really evolve in who they're making
28:59the money from so in some cases
29:01subscription apps are going B2B or even
29:04developing new versions of the product
29:06that are sophisticated enough to get
29:07like an insurer to pay for it so com
29:10just launched an actual clinical mental
29:12health offering that's catered towards
29:15people with anxiety and depression that
29:17they've partnered with insurers who will
29:18pay quite a bit more every year than the
29:21than the 60 that a year annual program
29:24to have people on that so I feel we've
29:26kind of entered a new era of
29:27subscription pricing which is very
29:29exciting yeah you know that reminds me
29:31of an app that I have not seen it might
29:33exist in the US but a friend of mine
29:35this was years ago so this is not new
29:37had their insurance company
29:40um would give them this app and when
29:42they completed certain activities like a
29:45workout things like that they would get
29:46points because you know the account
29:48calculus for the insurance company was
29:50okay if they're doing these activities
29:52they're likely going to be a net lower
29:54cost for us because they're living a
29:56healthy lifestyle and they would get my
29:58friend Ed he would get like Starbucks
29:59gift cards or things in return for those
30:02activities and I was like man I really
30:04want this I do have a lot of these
30:05activities and I don't get rewarded for
30:07this yeah but I haven't seen that and
30:09that's a great example of how the end
30:12user of the app is not paying anything
30:13and in fact they're actually getting
30:15paid through those rewards but there is
30:17someone on the back end which is the
30:19insurance provider who is paying and
30:21yeah to your point probably a lot more
30:23than the 99 Cents that some apps are
30:25charging for yeah that's a fascinating
30:27idea I think we'll see more and more
30:29gamification of kind of good behavior as
30:33apps become more addictive sitting on
30:35Tick Tock and scrolling for hours we're
30:37starting to see the this rise of new
30:39Focus apps where you kind of grow a tree
30:41or grow a pet for every 10 minutes you
30:44spend off your phone I've also seen
30:46similar apps where you get kind of
30:48reward your points for not being on your
30:51phone while driving so the phone can
30:53kind of detect when you're in movement
30:54that feels like a car and then when you
30:57don't pick up the phone it gives you X
30:59number of points that this app was
31:00focused towards college campuses so you
31:02could redeem them at a campus restaurant
31:03or something but I love those types of
31:05ideas that's a great example of similar
31:08to the widgets when you pay attention to
31:10some of these software changes like the
31:12ability to detect when a phone is moving
31:14or in the widget example when they have
31:16that different UI I mean it's incredible
31:19like you said some of the widget
31:20companies Rose close to the top and I
31:23think that's a maybe a good learning one
31:26learning we've already discussed is
31:27maybe paying attention to some of these
31:28like apps of the past that had the
31:30transient nature but also linked to
31:32fundamental human desires but then this
31:35is another one like paying attention to
31:36the different technology changes that
31:38apple is releasing as potential layers
31:41that you can integrate into a new
31:43application absolutely and I think like
31:46the the fact that there were so many
31:48widget apps and so many AI art apps that
31:51made it to number one shows that it's
31:54not necessarily the first to Market that
31:56kind of wins the space or gets all the
31:58value out of the space once consumers
32:00are kind of aware of something new and
32:03exciting is out there there's an
32:05opportunity to kind of optimize your
32:07keywords in the App Store if they're
32:09searching for things like widgets to run
32:11lower cost ads to do you know Tick Tock
32:14videos and there's still lots of room to
32:16build compelling and kind of engaging
32:19products beyond the first one that maybe
32:22breaks open the market for everyone else
32:24lensa is the perfect example of this
32:26right so there were at least I'm aware
32:28of two or three different web-based
32:31applications profile picture.ai and then
32:33Avatar AI as well which had come out
32:37first with this idea of creating
32:38personalized avatars I believe all all
32:41of these products are based off of the
32:43same apis and the same infrastructure
32:46and so yeah maybe they might have
32:47slightly different prom but it was the
32:49you know relatively the same output as
32:51well and these web-based applications
32:54did relatively well I think they had at
32:56least a several week Head Start but they
32:58were web-based and what was fascinating
32:59about lenza was I mean just maybe the
33:02the ux of having it on your phone maybe
33:05a better name to your point like really
33:07um not drastic changes in the product
33:10but then I I believe the first few that
33:13I mentioned they did well but maybe they
33:15made a hundred thousand dollars or
33:17something nothing close to the network
33:19effects or the the virality of lenza
33:22which to your point had millions of
33:24downloads and made millions of dollars
33:26in a very short span of time that's so
33:29true I think to your point about
33:31analyzing maybe what's behind the
33:33consumer behavior and consumer interests
33:35for AI avatars I tried many of the
33:38web-based platforms which are fantastic
33:40but it is kind of a pain to airdrop or
33:43email yourself all the photos that you
33:45want to use to train the model from your
33:48phone to your computer and so I think
33:50lenza really being the first kind of
33:53aggressive push on mobile for that was
33:55really smart and then on mobile you can
33:58enable notifications so lens is able to
34:01say hey we added this new style that we
34:03think you might be interested in hey we
34:05added this kind of you know avatars for
34:07dogs or avatars where you and your
34:09friend can be in it together like
34:12um I think them their capitalization on
34:15mobile as a platform was really smart
34:17and kind of vaulted them ahead of a lot
34:19of the web-based Avatar products that
34:22did come out first and and have similar
34:24quality images but were just harder to
34:26use that's such a great Point even just
34:29the push notifications in the other
34:31cases they also added pets and and
34:33different prompts that evolve the
34:35product but every time they did that
34:37it's like oh you have to send out
34:38another email and there's a limitation
34:39to the number of emails you send out and
34:41the conversion rate is going to be lower
34:43and so that's such a great point about
34:44just the idea of being mobile native and
34:47then also potentially having access to a
34:49larger swath of of people who are on
34:52mobile let's pivot a little bit we
34:54talked about different categories that
34:56might be interesting or surprising you
34:58mentioned one already but I want to hear
35:00what other individual apps maybe you
35:03thought were surprising that showed up
35:05in this list and you know been the dog
35:07Talking Ben the Dog was one for me where
35:09I was like what is this why is it in the
35:12top of the app charts so were there any
35:14others that you were kind of surprised
35:16to see in that list I am always obsessed
35:19with App Store data because the stories
35:21that it tells about what's happening in
35:23the real world are just always really
35:25fascinating another one that I think a
35:27lot of people were surprised to see hit
35:29number one this year was the 7-Eleven
35:31app for the convenience store chain but
35:34that almost always hits number one on
35:36free slurpee day July 11th every year
35:40because you have to have the app to get
35:42the Slurpee and then actually two days
35:44later we saw McDonald's hit number one
35:47on July 13th because it was free French
35:50fry day for National the national French
35:53fry holiday I was not notified of this
35:55holiday exactly so we're seeing these
35:58kind of larger more Legacy companies get
36:00these fun one-off spikes that that
36:02happen when they kind of combine their
36:05real world events and activations with
36:07something in the app this also I've seen
36:09plays out with a lot more kind of
36:11serious real world events so starlink
36:14which is kind of the satellite internet
36:16provider hit number one in September
36:19when they actually launched 52 new
36:21satellites into orbit wow and I think
36:24the news articles the Twitter videos
36:26everything around that kind of
36:28monumental launch then made people think
36:30you know I want to check this out
36:31another big one was the NOAA climate app
36:36hit number one during Hurricane Ian this
36:39and then another really interesting and
36:41kind of cultural moment app there's a
36:44next-gen period tracking app for women
36:46which claims kind of special encryptions
36:48that make it harder for you know
36:50subpoenaing the data or anything like
36:52that and that reached number one just a
36:54few days after the Roe v Wade verdict so
36:57after it was overturned in the U.S so I
36:59think you know 5 10 15 20 years down the
37:03line actually uh the stories that come
37:05out through this you know data that
37:07might not seem the most Monumental or
37:09actually going to be kind of really
37:11interesting and revealing about what
37:12happened in a given year I love that I I
37:15love that you can almost see yeah like
37:17the the moments of the Year embedded
37:19within the charts so let's look forward
37:22we're now in 2023 we've got some great
37:25data from 2022 and I know you actually
37:27looked at 2021 as well so I'll include
37:29that too in the show notes but as we
37:32look forward like what should we be
37:35paying attention to what kind of apps do
37:36you think are going to thrive in this
37:38new year so there's already an early I
37:41don't want to say winner but maybe an
37:42early leader for 2023 which is temu
37:46which is a new Commerce app developed by
37:48a large Chinese company called pinduo
37:51Duo and in China the version of this app
37:53is a full group buying experience say
37:56You're Gonna purchase a bag of apples or
37:58something and the price on the app is
38:00two dollars the more friends you invite
38:02to add a bag of apples to the order the
38:05price can go all the way down to like 10
38:09um so it kind of gamifies Commerce the
38:11US version of it is a a little bit less
38:14sophisticated so far but it is basically
38:17deep discounts on these products that
38:20are largely kind of shipping from
38:22overseas there is quite a bit of
38:24gamification around inviting your
38:26friends to get extra points that then
38:28you can win free items shipped directly
38:30from you or even withdraw cash from the
38:32app by inviting other friends to
38:34download it so unsurprisingly that has
38:37resulted in a ton of downloads yeah free
38:40money yes from my most recent check I
38:44think of of the 25 days so far this year
38:47temu has been at the top for like 22 of
38:50them they were not number one on New
38:52Year's Day because some like habit
38:54Tracker app or New Year's resolution app
38:56hit it but otherwise they've held the
38:57top spot and that number of days would
39:00be good enough to break into the top
39:02five last year so I'm gonna make an
39:04early call that we'll see TAMU at least
39:06in the top five if not higher hammu is
39:10an interesting example of another kind
39:12of trend I expect to see in 2023 which
39:15is AI almost invisible AI products where
39:19we've seen these AI first products all
39:21the Avatar and art apps but Tick Tock
39:24was actually one of the first and still
39:25best examples of invisible AI where the
39:28reason the product is so addictive is
39:30because they have this algorithm then
39:32that becomes catered to you temu does
39:34this really well also they have this
39:37Marketplace in the back end of inventory
39:39from thousands of suppliers but as soon
39:41as you've browse the app for five or ten
39:43minutes they can tell pretty quickly
39:45what is she clicking on what is she
39:47interested in and then they'll serve you
39:49deals and products that are really
39:51catered to your interests so I expect to
39:54see more companies kind of utilizing
39:57that almost AI infrastructure you know
39:59that's a great point because we've seen
40:01the rise of tick tock as people shift
40:03from what people might say is more
40:05connection based or contact based
40:08interaction on social to interest-based
40:10where it doesn't matter if you know the
40:11person but Tick Tock because it's got
40:13such a strong AI back end is servicing
40:16the things that it knows you're going to
40:19like and it gets better and better over
40:20time and I think this actually fits into
40:22what we discussed before about how it's
40:24really hard to create stickiness with
40:27these apps over a period of time and
40:29again I think it's because you know on
40:31one hand and it's really nice to be able
40:33to leverage word of mouth as people tell
40:35you something but on the other hand that
40:37word of mouth changes very quickly but
40:39if you have a strong back end where you
40:41can evolve that and you can kind of
40:43follow the user through their journey of
40:46liking something and then liking
40:47something else later I think that's why
40:50Tick Tock has been so sticky because you
40:51know I've heard people who start on Tick
40:53Tock and they listen to dancing videos
40:55but then all of a sudden Tick Tock picks
40:57up that they like power washing videos
40:58or like keto recipes or and and it
41:01follows them through that journey and so
41:03there's no need for them to go look for
41:05something else and so I I like that you
41:07mentioned these two applications that
41:09have ai in the back end but I also think
41:11there's a nature to that that is much
41:13more sticky than AI That's in your face
41:15as you said like a lensa for example
41:17yeah this is also a fascinating point
41:21because it brings up another Trend that
41:22I think we expect to see in 2023 that's
41:25very counterintuitive and I think kind
41:27of reverses a wave that we saw in 2021
41:30and 2022 which is that the AI algorithm
41:33of tick tock is so good that it will get
41:36you enormous reach for your product very
41:39very quickly and so we've seen this
41:41trend with a lot of early stage consumer
41:43companies where a video will hit and go
41:46viral and suddenly have a million five
41:49million 10 million views and they'll get
41:51a flood of users that the product is not
41:54actually ready for and that the product
41:56isn't kind of equipped to retain and so
41:59we've seen actually a few startups I've
42:01talked to recently have started limiting
42:03their own virality which sounds
42:06impossible because virality is
42:08theoretically organic but what they'll
42:10do is if a video starts performing too
42:13well on Tick Tock it gets too many views
42:16they will actually temporarily shut off
42:18the video or archive a video because
42:21it's driving too many downloads and they
42:23feel like they're not necessarily
42:25converting those downloads into engaged
42:27users quite well enough yet so I think
42:31we'll see maybe the strategy around how
42:33Founders utilize Tick Tock hopefully to
42:36their advantage also evolve quite a bit
42:39in this coming year yeah it also reminds
42:41me of something you've mentioned before
42:45Tick Tock is so good that even users as
42:49well are kind of limiting themselves
42:51from the app I do this I don't go on
42:54Tick Tock because I am very well aware
42:56that tick tocks algorithm is better than
43:00my self-control and so I need to just
43:03shut it down and and not go on the
43:05application because I know I will
43:06inevitably find myself two hours later
43:08yes looking up and asking what happened
43:11so are there are there examples of apps
43:14that you've seen that kind of Leverage
43:16this pushback on how good some of these
43:20apps are at capturing our attention
43:21first of all I think the trend is very
43:23real and probably underestimated right
43:26now this is to me comparable to the
43:29moment for Millennials where Selena
43:31Gomez was like I can't go on Instagram
43:32anymore like the biggest most followed
43:35star we're seeing like Emma Chamberlain
43:37Jenna Ortega all of these gen Z Stars
43:40saying I'm not going to do Tick Tock
43:42anymore because it's too addictive a
43:44couple things have come out of that I
43:45think Instagram reels and YouTube shorts
43:48benefit from that it's funny I have a
43:49younger brother he's 22 and he told me
43:52like I had to delete tick tock because
43:54it's too good it's too addictive I'm
43:56just gonna watch Instagram reels and
43:58then I was telling him but you're giving
44:00data to Instagram Royals that allows
44:02them to make that algorithm better and
44:04soon enough there'll be no escape from
44:06these like hyper curated short form
44:08video algorithms I do think like on a on
44:11a higher level maybe this ties back to
44:13what we were talking about with new
44:15consumer social things like be real to
44:18me are like a direct example of that
44:20kind of pushback on be real you go in
44:23you take a picture you have to take it
44:25in a two-minute frame maybe you scroll
44:27through and leave an emoji on some of
44:29your friends pictures but you're not in
44:31the app for usually more than a few
44:33minutes a day and so I think users find
44:35that to be kind of a more fulfilling or
44:38healthy way to engage with social media
44:40than ending up on a scrolling feed for
44:42hours at a time I'm trying to think of
44:44examples where they're does seem to be
44:46this healthy level of interaction
44:48between people one example that comes to
44:50mind is Strava to me which is the app is
44:52not focused on just the nature of being
44:55social like hey I'm going to comment on
44:57your posts and I'm gonna post you know
44:59this image of my life but really fixated
45:01on an activity so in Travis case running
45:03or cycling and then there's social added
45:06on to that the social app is not fixated
45:09on just trying to be social it's fixated
45:12on something else are there other
45:14examples that you can think of where you
45:16know social is almost like a modifier
45:18instead of the core of the app itself
45:21it's a great question I think there's
45:23this new wave of like what we would call
45:25kind of vertical social networks which
45:27is where the network is focused on a
45:30specific interest and then ideally uses
45:32kind of real world data and connections
45:34from that interest to build a product
45:37that kind of becomes a system of record
45:39for you in that activity so let me
45:41explain Strava is probably a great
45:43example where the product where works
45:45best when you're actually going on bike
45:47rides and tracking them in the app and
45:49you know accumulating trophies Goodreads
45:52is another kind of interesting and early
45:54example of this where kind of the core
45:56unit of Engagement is tracking your
45:59progress through a book and maybe you'll
46:01meet friends join book clubs interact in
46:03that way on the app but it's not the
46:05same sort of like hyper curated
46:08influencer first Kind of Perfect Vision
46:11product another very interesting one
46:14this didn't hit number one this year but
46:16I'm watching it there's this app for
46:19tracking squishmallows I don't know if
46:21you're familiar with them they're this
46:22new very popular type of stuffed animal
46:25that people actually go oh I know squish
46:28yeah I didn't realize they were called
46:31squishmallows but yes I love those and
46:34people will go like literally diving
46:36through bins in Target to find these
46:38rare squishmallows that they've never
46:40seen before and I think this was mid or
46:43late November but an apps specifically
46:46to track your squishmallow collection
46:48broke into the top 200 on the app store
46:50which was incredible and the reviews
46:53they were mostly from kind of teenagers
46:55or younger kids maybe some adults with
46:57squishmallow collections were just
46:59saying it was like such a fun and
47:01rewarding way to both like Express their
47:04interests track their collection and
47:06then also browse the collections of
47:07other users like oh this person you know
47:10found this squishmallow that I've been
47:11searching for for years so I I do all
47:14this to say I do see these kind of more
47:16verticalized social platforms is also a
47:18potential maybe source of respite away
47:21from these broad-based networks that
47:23really suck you in I'm so glad that you
47:25mentioned that example and I just outed
47:27myself as a squishmallow fan but I mean
47:31I think some of the themes that we've
47:33discussed keep coming up and one of them
47:35is this idea that there are these Trends
47:38from the past that re-emerge and this
47:40theme of like collecting swish Mellows
47:42and having you know having rare ones is
47:44like a a classic and collectibles and
47:46it's almost like exactly parallel to
47:50it's fascinating to see how this digital
47:52element is coming to play because that
47:54didn't exist during that prior era and
47:57just as a fun fact if people uh Google
47:59there was uh once a a lawsuit or a court
48:02case between a married couple because
48:05they couldn't decide who got the beanie
48:10um anyway let's let's move on to a
48:12question that's related to what we're
48:13discussing here which is just the
48:15interplay between digital and physical
48:16so something that's fascinating about
48:19something like a Strava is it's not just
48:21me on my phone clicking on on the app
48:25and interacting with people I'm doing
48:27some sort of physical activity but I
48:29think there's maybe a further extension
48:31of that which is not just solo
48:34interacting physically but also how do
48:36these digital apps potentially
48:39impact the way that we engage with other
48:41people physically right like kind of a
48:43cyclical nature to our digital and
48:46physical lives so are there examples of
48:48apps that you've seen that our online
48:50Behavior actually penetrates the
48:52physical world or changes it yeah
48:54absolutely and and I think like the
48:56first wave of subscription products uh
48:59like the comms the head spaces the
49:01fitness apps the nutrition apps we're
49:03very much kind of single player mode and
49:05helping you optimize yourself and your
49:08life and your habits we've definitely
49:10seen kind of this rise of this new wave
49:12of apps focused around relationships and
49:15really you know the app just needs you
49:17and one other person to work but they'll
49:19prompt you with daily questions about
49:21the other person things you want to talk
49:22about basically ways to use this digital
49:25product to enhance this real world
49:28relationship that's happening and to
49:30maybe make things easier or to
49:32strengthen or to improve these
49:33relationships the most kind of basic
49:36version of this was the widget apps that
49:39locket Widget the founder
49:42um he's a his name is Matt Moss I think
49:44he's either a college student or a
49:45recent college graduate he made it for
49:47his girlfriend they were in a long
49:49distance relationship and they wanted to
49:51see what each other was up to every day
49:53and I think that use case is is very
49:55strong of kind of how can we integrate
49:58technology more seamlessly to help us
50:00have better in person or in real life
50:03relationships another Trend that we're
50:05seeing quite a lot of is apps and
50:08products and especially platforms like
50:10Tick Tock to be honest driving traffic
50:13and driving engagement towards real
50:15world businesses so gen Z Yelp is not
50:19their favorite place to be
50:22they've never really been big adopters
50:24of Yelp and so they're looking for a new
50:26platform Instagram is trying to build
50:28this Tick Tock has kind of emerged as an
50:31early home for this where people are
50:33discovering restaurants places to go
50:35things to do around them from Tick Tock
50:37and then driving kind of similar to how
50:40Tick Tock can drive a wave of people to
50:42your app it can drive a wave of people
50:44physically to your storefront door which
50:47is interesting there's a food reviewer
50:49named Keith Lee I think he has a couple
50:52million subscribers at this point his
50:54account took off in November on Tick
50:57Tock and he only reviews food from small
51:00businesses that he either picks up or
51:02kind of gets sent to him and there's so
51:04many stories out there now if you Google
51:06him of businesses that were really
51:08struggling and he was able to generate
51:10tens of thousands of dollars in revenue
51:13for them in just one or two days through
51:16these food reviews that went viral and
51:17like changed the game so is the lesson
51:20there that these apps or companies with
51:22apps should really be working with these
51:25creators and being on a platform like
51:27Tick Tock the reason I ask that is you
51:30know in some sense I feel like the
51:32answer is of course but then I also have
51:35been on the other side as a marketer
51:37where I'm like I'm working with these
51:38creators is we're not getting you know
51:40the hits that we're looking for and so
51:42you hear of these viral Sensations but
51:45obviously there's like a lot of trial
51:47and error as well so do you have any
51:48thoughts on like is that just the move
51:50given the the state we're in or do you
51:53have any thoughts on how else we can do
51:55that effectively I do think we've seen a
51:57lot more businesses both in real life
51:59businesses and apps invest in Tick Tock
52:03acquisition or trying to engineer
52:05Tick-Tock virality over the last year I
52:08think it's honestly very very hard to do
52:11um similar to how not every business
52:13needs an Instagram page with you know
52:16hundreds of thousands or millions of
52:18followers I don't necessarily think
52:20every business needs you know a tick
52:22tock page with a huge following if I
52:25were a small business probably what I
52:26would look out for is kind of very
52:28organic ways to engage with maybe
52:30smaller creators who have audiences that
52:33are very kind of targeted to the type of
52:35people that I'm looking for I would also
52:38just keep in an eye on what platform
52:40seems to be winning on this next-gen
52:43Yelp Vision that I think we believe is
52:45going to play out over the next two to
52:47three years will it be Instagram with
52:49their new searchable map will it be Tick
52:51Tock will it be something else entirely
52:53because there probably is an advantage
52:55if you're one of the early businesses to
52:58capitalize on that platform something I
53:00want to ask you about before we close
53:02out is something you mentioned in your
53:05thread was the difference in geography
53:07and this is pretty front and center when
53:09you think about it like Tick Tock is
53:10obviously a Chinese company you
53:12mentioned temu which is like your your
53:14horse for the year in terms of what
53:16you're watching and so there does seem
53:18to be more diversity not just from China
53:21in terms of the apps that are rising to
53:23the top versus I believe it used to be
53:26more U.S concentrated apps that were
53:29trending in America so any learnings
53:31from that or why are we seeing that
53:34change in in the in the Matrix of apps
53:37rising to the top it plays out in the
53:39data too as well as kind of just the
53:41eyeballing the App Store charts and and
53:43seeing where things come from in 2021 of
53:46the new startups that kind of cracked
53:48the top number one for the first time
53:50almost 85 percent of them were developed
53:54in the US but in 2022 that had dropped
53:57to 45 so we're seeing way more apps from
54:00China from Russia from Italy really from
54:04all over be real is originally from
54:06France which is an interesting example
54:08um get mainstream adoption in the U.S I
54:11think there's a couple trends that are
54:13driving this one a lot of the number
54:16ones as we talked about this year played
54:18on themes like widgets and avatars and
54:21there's a lot of great International app
54:23Studios and developers that kind of fast
54:25follow trends that are starting to
54:27emerge and release products that
54:30capitalize on that excitement so you
54:32know when Lockett took off in the U.S
54:34living in China was released a few weeks
54:37later and then kind of a wave of other
54:39widget apps came from all over the world
54:41not just China or any specific Market
54:43Tick Tock of course is another huge
54:46player here to me it's kind of
54:49democratized the ability to go viral and
54:52to see success outside of your home
54:55Market there's one app that hit number
54:57one this year called travel boast which
54:59is kind of an interactive map where you
55:01can visualize all the places you've been
55:03it originated in Russia but it ended up
55:06with 500 million views on Tick Tock
55:09because people globally were are making
55:11videos about kind of their experiences
55:14and putting them on travel boasts and
55:16before like a solo developer app coming
55:18out of Russia like would have very
55:20little chance to kind of see
55:21mainstreaming with success but because
55:23of tick tock it did which is really
55:26that's a great point because in the past
55:28it was really hard for an individual
55:30developer to have the budget or the
55:33connections to get the kind of traction
55:36we're seeing today but now that we have
55:38access to certain distribution channels
55:39like Tick Tock we are seeing just maybe
55:42more apps come to play but also their
55:44ability to rise more quickly which feeds
55:46into what we said before which makes it
55:48harder to stay at the top but with that
55:51said um Olivia this has been so great I
55:54want to give you the opportunity if
55:56there are any other examples you've
55:57shared so many already of apps that you
55:59think are just worth knowing about or
56:01tell us something about the state of the
56:03App Store absolutely there's one that
56:06comes to mind that I've been fascinated
56:07with recently it's actually in the
56:09gaming category so it's an app called
56:11Subway Surfers that was first launched
56:13in 2012 out of a studio in the nordics
56:16where a lot of gaming apps come from
56:18even just in 2014 people were publishing
56:21blog posts like Subway Surfers has so
56:24much longevity it's been around for so
56:26long which at the time was two years and
56:29is still getting downloads and now more
56:32than 10 years later they just cracked
56:34the top 10 most downloaded apps
56:36worldwide so not just in the US and not
56:39just for games across both games and
56:41non-gaming apps According to some of the
56:44independent data they actually saw
56:46downloads grow 50 last year so they got
56:49like 300 million downloads they've now
56:52been downloaded by almost 40 percent of
56:54the population which is crazy maybe on
56:57multiple devices since they've been
56:59around for 10 years they've made some
57:01really smart moves to kind of stay top
57:04of mind for that decade they have this
57:06world tour strategy where the graphics
57:09and the location of the game changes
57:11every two weeks which is really fun they
57:13also have built great social media
57:15profiles so they have 7 million
57:17subscribers on YouTube another 6 million
57:19on tick tock but this year I was trying
57:23to figure out what could have Juiced
57:26it turns out that especially gen Z users
57:29but all ages have started kind of split
57:32screening Tick Tock videos because
57:34people have such short attention spans
57:37so they'll put the real video on top or
57:39they'll put you know the voice over on
57:41top and then they'll put a clip of
57:43someone playing Subway Surfers in the
57:46bottom of the video in the hopes that
57:48this will get the viewer to kind of stop
57:50and stay engaged and stay focused on the
57:53video instead of just like scrolling
57:54away that's so funny I've seen a couple
57:57examples of this as you said because
57:59people have short attention spans I
58:01don't know if they're using Subway
58:01Surfers but there's also these examples
58:03of people who are trying to get around
58:05copyright infringement so not
58:07duplicating a video but then they'll
58:09just on the side of a video have like a
58:11game video playing or something like
58:15um and so yeah I mean people are getting
58:17so creative these days but I think I
58:19think it's so interesting these examples
58:21where an app is used in ways that the
58:24developers didn't even intend yeah no
58:27and it's the downstream implications of
58:29it are also interesting in terms of what
58:32it continues to do to our attention span
58:34and kind of what we expect from media
58:36there was this meme that came out that
58:38was like you know the Next Generation
58:40Jen Alpha is gonna Riot when they go to
58:43the movie theaters and Subway Surfers
58:45isn't playing on the bottom half of the
58:47screen like they're not going to be able
58:49to focus for that long I don't know if
58:50that's true uh exactly but um I do think
58:54it'll be very interesting to track
58:55whether more videos or fewer videos end
58:58up doing that in the coming year it's a
59:00great point this idea of like reducing
59:02attention spans and what comes next
59:04because if you think about it it used to
59:06be like you read like a 10 minute long
59:07article people got bored of that then
59:10you watched a like five minute YouTube
59:11video people got bored of that then you
59:14had like an image on Instagram and then
59:16a short clip that's 30 seconds and then
59:19even that wasn't enough it's like okay
59:20within the short clip we're gonna speed
59:22up the music we're gonna cut the screen
59:23and it's like what comes next I don't
59:25know how short you can get this we'll
59:27see we'll see I guess I want to end off
59:29with a fun little exercise because I
59:31feel like I've learned a lot in this
59:33conversation there's so many themes so
59:35many ideas if someone's looking to
59:36create an an app you know maybe you can
59:38copy from something that you see on
59:39desktop maybe you can pay attention to
59:41the technology changes happening on the
59:43iPhone maybe you can look to what's
59:46happening in other countries and
59:47duplicate them here and there are a few
59:49others that we've discussed but if you
59:51Olivia having maybe one of the best
59:54understandings of what's happening in
59:57this app store if you were tasked
59:59tomorrow to go and build an app
01:00:02that you wanted to get to number one yes
01:00:05what would you do what would you think
01:00:07about great question
01:00:10you know I have to say and this might be
01:00:12due to personal interest but there's
01:00:13this fascinating Trend around dog
01:00:15ownership and dogs especially for young
01:00:18people becoming the new children because
01:00:21people are having kids later or having
01:00:23fewer kids they're spending more money
01:00:25on their dogs than ever before and there
01:00:28are not that many kind of digital first
01:00:32um so I would probably develop some sort
01:00:34of app around dog or pet ownership where
01:00:37you were able to show off or track or
01:00:39keep an eye on your pet in a creative or
01:00:41interesting way I think the core of it
01:00:43would be that it generates some sort of
01:00:46shareable asset that then you could post
01:00:48across Instagram and Twitter and Tick
01:00:50Tock and show everyone how cute your dog
01:00:52is so I think I need I might be on the
01:00:55in the idea maze uh um for a little
01:00:58while longer but there's hopefully
01:00:59something there there's something there
01:01:01because to your point pets have been
01:01:03taking off uh for years it's you know as
01:01:06some people say the recession-proof
01:01:07industry if you look at the pet industry
01:01:10growth relative to many other things
01:01:12like typically you'll see like you know
01:01:152008 show up in in sales pets is just
01:01:18like this straight line upwards
01:01:21um and then yes people love talking
01:01:23about their pets sharing pictures of
01:01:24their pets looking at other pictures of
01:01:26pets and so we talked about the need for
01:01:28some sort of sharing element or way to
01:01:30notify other people that you're on this
01:01:33app and so there is something there
01:01:35maybe like oh God this is this is so
01:01:38silly because people people say this as
01:01:40a Trope but like Instagram for pets or I
01:01:42don't know just something where the pet
01:01:44is the is the yeah influencer if that
01:01:47makes you feel bad posting you know your
01:01:50whole Instagram feed being pictures of
01:01:51your pets so then it's like do you do
01:01:52what I did and make a separate Instagram
01:01:54account for your dog or do you not have
01:01:57kind of the the attention for that which
01:01:59I think is most people my sister and I
01:02:01have joked um for probably the past 10
01:02:04years that if we did ever start a
01:02:06business it would be very fun like how
01:02:08those zoos have live streams where you
01:02:11can watch the animals and like see what
01:02:13they're doing throughout the day someone
01:02:14should create that book for puppies
01:02:15where you can just see two puppies
01:02:17running around all day maybe that'll
01:02:20just be a genre on Tick Tock but I think
01:02:22it's pretty popular I know we're in that
01:02:24idea maze where we're like is it a
01:02:25feature or a product
01:02:27um you know speaking of maybe a viral
01:02:29app that could be created maybe it
01:02:31already exists but that I don't think
01:02:33would last long is the um you know how
01:02:37people buy pets that look like them or
01:02:39dogs specifically an app that you upload
01:02:43your two pictures and then it tells you
01:02:45you're like 61 like your dog and someone
01:02:49else is like oh you're 99
01:02:51um I think that could be pretty funny
01:02:52you have something there I'm serious I
01:02:54would download them that could be a
01:02:56number one for 2020 Theory a very short
01:02:59live 2023 app all right well if someone
01:03:02wants to build that go right ahead um
01:03:04Olivia this was amazing I feel like
01:03:06hopefully listeners have so many more
01:03:09angles that they can think about the App
01:03:11Store and think about whether they want
01:03:13to create within it or at least
01:03:14understand the different apps that we're
01:03:16downloading because to your point
01:03:17earlier they really do represent our
01:03:19Behavior what we want to engage with
01:03:20what we're paying attention to so thank
01:03:22you so much for going through this and
01:03:24we will definitely have to do a another
01:03:26episode once we get the 2023 data
01:03:28amazing I can't wait thanks so much for
01:03:31having me this is very fun
01:03:35thanks for listening to the a16z podcast
01:03:37if you like this episode don't forget to
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