Oppenheimer & the Catastrophe of Communism

a16z2023-08-02

43K views|9 months ago

💫 Short Summary

The video delves into the challenges of historical accuracy in filmmaking, particularly regarding Oppenheimer and Einstein's portrayals amidst Communist affiliations. It explores the impact of Communism on society, the prevention of World War III through nuclear deterrence, and the ethical implications of wartime decisions like the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings. The discussion extends to the influence of communist ideology in education, the Rosenbergs' espionage, and the potential benefits and drawbacks of AI technology. It also touches on the cultural shifts towards China and Russia, the moral implications of scientists involved in nuclear technology, and the dangers of civilian nuclear power and AI progress.

✨ Highlights

📊 Transcript

✦

Discussion on historical accuracy in the film Oppenheimer during politically charged times.

00:45

Filmmaker's generational perspective as a Gen Xer is seen as an advantage for creating the movie.

Emphasis on the importance of not repeating historical mistakes and drawing lessons from the past.

Highlighting the significance of different generations in interpreting and portraying historical events.

✦

Oppenheimer's unique personality and leadership qualities set him apart in the scientific community.

03:06

Despite not having a specific breakthrough work or Nobel Prize, Oppenheimer was selected for the Manhattan Project due to his generalist physicist background and the respect he commanded from others.

Oppenheimer's disagreeableness and strong belief in his ideas showcased his independent thinking and leadership style.

The selection process for Oppenheimer for the Manhattan Project was compared to choosing entrepreneurs with no prior experience, focusing on strong personality traits crucial for leadership roles.

✦

Impressive industrial production machine of American Military during World War II.

06:26

Quick transition from civilian to wartime production of tanks and planes within 18 months.

Manufacturing miracle played a crucial role in supporting Soviet Union, Europe, and Britain.

Efficiency and scale of production process saved numerous nations and contributed significantly to the outcome of the war.

✦

Comparison of American production machine efficiency in the past versus today.

07:23

Mention of Ezra Klein's article on the Chips Act and challenges of building in the US.

Operation Warp Speed highlighted as a return to past efficiency.

Contrasting government and private sector roles in the Industrial Revolution.

Challenges faced by legacy car companies in supply chain and production adaptations.

✦

Discussion of potential movie treatment of Einstein and Oppenheimer, highlighting Oppenheimer's Communist ties and American-Soviet relations.

10:49

Declassification of intelligence files showing American intelligence bugged Soviet Military Intelligence during Cold War.

Knowledge of Soviet spies in America but inability to act due to the value of information.

Spies left in place at senior government levels to avoid alerting the Soviets.

✦

Declassification of Soviet intelligence penetration of American institutions during the Cold War.

12:37

Einstein's support for the Soviet Union and Stalin, along with criticism of the United States.

Discussion of a new book exploring Einstein's pro-communist statements in the 1920s and 30s.

Challenge to the perception of Einstein as a neutral arbiter of morality.

Einstein's intellectual naivety towards communism and belief in the good intentions of the Soviet regime despite their atrocities.

✦

The early 1900s saw high expectations for peace and prosperity, but were disrupted by World War One and the Great Depression.

14:30

The turbulent times led to a questioning of capitalism and a rise in communist ideals, especially among proponents of egalitarianism.

These events sparked a revolutionary fever of change, drawing in individuals with high IQs and those in abstract fields like theoretical physics.

✦

The catastrophic consequences of Communism in the Soviet Union under Lenin's rule.

16:21

The term 'kulak' referred to smart and productive individuals targeted and killed during the Communist Revolution.

Loss of expertise and meritocracy in the government, resulting in a devastating famine.

Resentment, envy, and rage fueling Communism, leading to the destruction of productive individuals.

Attempts to run the country with non-productive people.

✦

Despite early whistleblowers, show trials and scientist deaths were common in the Soviet Union.

18:11

Information on Soviet atrocities was available but often ignored by prominent figures like Einstein and Oppenheimer.

The appeal of communism persisted over decades despite increasing evidence of its atrocities.

The speaker's grandparents fled Russia due to their Communist beliefs.

Many intellectuals and the press were pro-communism, overlooking the mounting death toll of millions.

✦

Communism was widely supported by American elites in the early to mid-20th century, demonstrated by Henry Wallace's two million votes in 1948.

21:50

Support for communism persisted despite awareness of Stalinist atrocities and famines, particularly among intellectuals, scientists, and academics.

The influence of communism was prevalent in institutions like Berkeley, starting in the 1920s and continuing through the 1930s.

The segment showcases how communism had a significant impact on the American elite class during this period.

✦

The creation of the term anti-fascist by the Soviets as a propaganda tool and its impact on Communists in the West.

24:01

The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact between Hitler and Stalin changing the stance of Communists in the West.

The shifting Party Line from Moscow based on political alliances causing confusion and loss of faith among Communists.

The term Party Line referring to instructions from the Kremlin on belief systems for Global Communists.

American Communists holding study sessions to ensure political correctness and alignment with the Party Line.

✦

Impact of communism on society.

26:41

Communism influenced beliefs and behaviors, outlawed other religions, and promoted full faith in the communist ideology.

Faith often took precedence over facts for many individuals.

Society under communism included cool parties and a disregard for traditional moral values like monogamy.

The USSR aimed to eliminate the family structure and promote group homes for children, reflecting extreme measures in communist societies.

✦

The atomic bomb invention and mutually assured destruction doctrine prevented World War III.

29:08

Development of arsenals by the US and USSR deterred a conflict in the 1950s to 1980s.

The bomb's existence led to an arms race and shaped global politics.

Hindsight shows that the atomic bomb ultimately deterred a catastrophic war.

The film's portrayal of Oppenheimer and Einstein's conversation highlights the responsibility and consequences of nuclear weapons.

✦

The potential devastation of World War III is discussed, with a focus on the mass deaths and destruction that could have occurred.

30:55

Conventional incendiaries and firebombing in World War II led to hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths.

The existence of atomic and hydrogen bombs is credited with preventing a large-scale war of similar magnitude.

The impact of these weapons on preventing a catastrophic conflict is reflected upon, estimating that around 200 million people are alive today due to their deterrent effect.

✦

Importance of preventing World War III and the potential consequences of nuclear capability.

32:07

John Von Neumann's brilliance and anti-communist stance are highlighted in the segment.

Von Neumann's foresight regarding world affairs, particularly the Soviet threat, is emphasized.

Boris Pash and Lewis Strauss, who recognized the dangers of Communism, are mentioned.

The segment discusses the perspectives of individuals who foresaw the Soviet threat and the impact of the Russian Revolution on refugees.

✦

Von Neumann's controversial advocacy for a nuclear first strike against the Soviet Union in the late 1940s.

34:52

Despite his intelligence, he ended up supporting war crimes or genocide in the pursuit of anti-communism.

The cautionary tale of the dangers of entrusting scientists with moral wisdom and political judgment.

Von Neumann's development of Game Theory and his attempts to apply it to politics.

Retrospectively, many of Von Neumann's political ideas were deemed to be extremely flawed.

✦

Oppenheimer's security clearance revocation during the McCarthy era and its implications.

37:04

Cultural memory of the Red Scare, McCarthyism, and blacklisting of individuals.

Different waves of anti-communist sentiment in the US, starting from the aftermath of the Russian Revolution.

Impact of anti-communist fears on labor unions and the American economy.

Balancing security measures with personal liberties.

✦

Lack of anti-communist energy in the US in the 1920s and 1930s.

39:33

The US government was unconcerned with hiring Communists during this time.

Reports of Communists in the OSS did not raise concerns within the US government.

Whitaker Chambers' attempt to reveal himself as a Soviet Military Intelligence recruiter went unnoticed for years.

✦

Influence of Red Scare and McCarthyism on US Society

41:09

The Red Scare and McCarthyism were influenced by the changing relationship between the US and the Soviet Union in the late 1940s and early 1950s.

The fear of communism during this period resulted in suspicion and alienation of individuals with communist affiliations, regardless of their actual beliefs.

Societal dynamics and cultural values at the time played a significant role in shaping attitudes and actions towards communism.

The historical context of the Red Scare and McCarthyism remains relevant today, as tensions between the US and China impact attitudes towards communism.

✦

Unfair targeting of individuals for communist beliefs during McCarthy era led to cancel culture tactics.

43:59

Cancel culture originated in the American Communist Party as a way to punish individuals for their beliefs.

Importance of allowing free discussion for those with differing viewpoints is crucial for a free society.

Speaker's grandfather was fired for communist beliefs, emphasizing ethical implications of censorship and need for open dialogue.

✦

Influence of communist ideology in education.

47:16

Soviet biology teachings and their impact on famines are discussed.

Debate on freedom of speech versus the role of Public School teachers as government employees.

Transmission of communist biology into the American education system is mentioned.

Potential implications on freedom of thought and education are explored.

✦

Discussion on teachers teaching communist material to students and the consequences.

48:10

Impact of McCarthyism, with individuals losing jobs and being blacklisted for affiliations.

Emphasis on the importance of free debate on significant issues, while distinguishing healthy debate from actions undermining national security or manipulating young minds.

Critique of McCarthy's controversial actions, highlighting lack of evidence to support claims and consequences of unfounded accusations.

✦

Underestimation of Soviet Penetration and Controversy Surrounding Rosenberg Execution.

50:44

McCarthy underestimated the extent of Soviet infiltration in the US government, possibly numbering in the thousands.

The Rosenbergs were executed for passing nuclear secrets to the Soviet Union, sparking controversy.

Accused of being communist conduits for Soviet Military Intelligence, the Rosenbergs are iconic figures representing a divisive period in American history.

✦

Execution of the Rosenbergs for espionage and aiding the Soviets in obtaining atomic bomb plans.

53:14

Their actions raised moral questions about the necessity of a first strike with atomic weapons.

The acquisition of the bomb by the Soviets potentially prevented further deaths and the spread of the Iron Curtain in Eastern Europe.

The impact of the Rosenbergs' actions on history and geopolitical stability is significant.

✦

Impact of Chinese Communist Party on China

56:17

Mention of moral horror comparable to Stalin's regime.

Shift towards supporting China in the 2000s with significant economic changes.

Government's governance leading to an economic miracle, lifting many out of poverty.

Debate over whether the leader merely eased oppression or truly improved conditions.

✦

Comparison between Deng's era in China and the New Economic Program in Russia in the 1920s.

58:13

American businessmen, such as Herman Hammer, played a crucial role in Russia during this period.

Hammer's association with Russia and his business ventures, including his trip to the Soviet Union in 1921, are discussed.

The summary highlights the historical context and parallels between economic programs in China and Russia.

It showcases the influence of American business figures in shaping international relations and economies.

✦

Shift in moral perception towards China compared to that of the Soviet Union in the late 1940s and early 1950s.

01:00:43

American CEOs and companies have strong ties with China's Communist party, raising concerns about potential consequences in the future.

Activities considered acceptable now may be judged differently in the future, prompting a need for caution.

Disentanglement from China's supply chain would be complex due to strong connections with the United States, unlike the economic ties with the Soviet Union.

American large companies heavily rely on China as a supply chain, leading to interesting implications for the future.

✦

Critique of Communism's Flaws

01:03:56

Communism concentrates power in the government, removing incentives for hard work and leading to mass murder as a means of control.

Intellectuals often overlook these flaws due to guilt for their abilities, despite communism's appeal to fairness.

David Friedman's son highlighted the negative outcomes of communism with a powerful formulation.

✦

The three fundamental motivations for doing something for others: love, money, and force.

01:05:26

Universal love is contrasted with natural human motivation.

Love is discussed as being more scalable than force.

Examples from the FX show 'The Americans' illustrate how power dynamics influence behavior.

The plot of the show highlights the abuse of power by senior officials and its impact on society.

✦

Negative thinking in leadership can lead to resentment, bitterness, and envy.

01:07:26

Communist regimes pose dangers and removing incentives can have economic implications.

Debate over whether bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki constitute genocide is explored.

Attributing intent to such actions is a challenging aspect of the debate.

✦

Influence of Japanese culture on the treatment of civilians in war.

01:11:35

The mindset of sacrifice from Samurai culture led to the belief that civilians were fair game in war.

This cultural inclination towards fighting to the death was seen in the actions of Kamikaze Fighters.

The bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 were a result of this cultural mindset.

Despite being morally horrifying, the Japanese people of that era understood the context and actions leading up to these events, resulting in less anger towards them compared to Western perspectives.

✦

Debate on the decision to drop atomic bombs on Japan during World War II.

01:13:12

One argument was to save American soldiers' lives by ending the war quickly.

Another argument suggested it may have saved more Japanese lives in the long run.

The speaker expresses personal reservations about utilitarian ethics and sacrificing lives for the greater good.

The debate explores the ethical complexities of wartime decisions and the moral implications of utilitarianism.

✦

Ethical implications of utilitarianism in decision-making.

01:15:31

Criticism of sacrificing ethics for the greater good.

Dangers of cover-ups in research funding.

Comparison of the gun method and implosion method for detonating an atomic bomb.

Emphasis on the importance of ethical considerations in scientific endeavors.

✦

Summary of "Manhattan" TV Series

01:17:46

The show centers on the Manhattan Project, exploring the implosion method as a backup for detonating the nuclear bomb.

It highlights the renegade efforts within the project and the significance of having diverse approaches.

Oppenheimer's leadership and recruitment of top intellectual talent, such as John Von Neumann and non-Nazi physicists, are featured.

Many key figures were Jewish immigrants from Budapest, nicknamed 'Martians,' who attended the same high schools in the area.

✦

Discussion on the American semiconductor industry and the influence of the Hungarian Mafia.

01:19:50

Focus on figures like Andy Grove and Les Vides in the industry.

Exploration of the mystery behind the concentration of geniuses in the atomic project and semiconductor industry.

World War II being described as a race war due to Hitler's hatred towards Jews.

Warning against dividing society by race and the potential dangers of lack of peaceful unification.

✦

Discussion on race wars and racial conflicts.

01:23:12

Concern over the trend of racializing various issues and the potential consequences.

Increased hostility among Americans based on race is highlighted.

Themes of ambition, moral dilemmas, and personal sacrifices are explored.

Parallels drawn between responsibilities in developing and deploying AI technologies in society today.

✦

Challenges in analyzing large AI models and the importance of a systems approach.

01:25:52

AI models are comparable to studying physics due to their size and complexity, requiring concepts like 'temperature' to measure randomness.

It is crucial to separate the science and technology of AI from its applications to avoid negative consequences.

Caution against overregulation in the AI field to prevent hindering innovation and progress.

Drawing parallels between AI and physics in terms of societal impact and potential implications.

✦

Moral implications of scientists and spies involved in nuclear technology.

01:29:41

Handing over secrets to the Russians had a significant impact on the survival of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.

Civilian application of nuclear power for energy was discussed, pointing out the missed opportunity for zero emissions and unlimited energy.

Potential benefits of nuclear power in addressing climate change concerns were emphasized.

Criticism was given for the decision not to deploy nuclear power.

✦

Missed opportunities in the 1970s to address climate change and Middle East involvement through nuclear power.

01:31:01

The precautionary principle, influenced by the German Greens, led to the avoidance of nuclear power and global consequences.

Richard Nixon's plan for energy independence through nuclear power was never put into action.

The negative perception of nuclear power by scientists, filmmakers, and journalists fueled public fear despite low death tolls from incidents like Three Mile Island.

✦

Dangers and implications of civilian nuclear power and AI technology.

01:32:48

Civilian nuclear power poses risks compared to other energy sources due to potential disasters and long-term environmental impacts.

AI technology has both national security implications and civilian use cases, raising concerns about privacy and security.

Lobbying efforts for AI regulation may undermine efforts to establish ethical guidelines and prevent misuse of the technology.

Parallels are drawn to historical mistakes with nuclear technology during the Cold War era, emphasizing the importance of learning from past errors to avoid repeating them.

✦

Speaker reflects on education at Berkeley High and Columbia University, discussing the intellectual talent at Berkeley.

01:35:13

Berkeley's evolution into a high-tech hub and its left-wing, communist ideologies are highlighted.

The appeal of communism is explored, noting ethical similarities to religious principles like caring for others and the Golden Rule.

Living by these values can create a great society, reminiscing about Berkeley's communal atmosphere.

Speaker expresses surprise at the racial divide in other parts of the country.

✦

Influence of Culture on Innovation in Silicon Valley.

01:39:46

Berkeley culture attracted individuals from the Midwest seeking openness and innovation.

People with high IQs may feel constrained by their upbringing.

East Coast transplants in Silicon Valley challenge historical hierarchies and norms.

Bob Noyce shaped Intel's culture by promoting inclusivity and rejecting East Coast ideals.

✦

Evolution of Meritocracy Concept by Bob Noyce.

01:40:58

Meritocracy initially focused on judging individuals based on ideas rather than family background or title.

Negative perception of meritocracy led to selection based on openness to new ideas and rejection of traditional beliefs.

San Francisco Bay Area and California known for embracing creativity and new ways of living.

Risk of adopting new ideologies leading to becoming what one despises.

✦

Overcoming challenges in AI progress and addressing fears.

01:43:03

AI advancement facing hindrance from anti-capitalist Communists similar to nuclear energy history.

Advocating for technological growth and engaging in conversations despite potential backlash.

Need to address unsubstantiated fears surrounding AI's future impact.

Urging for a balanced approach to AI development for societal benefits while mitigating negative outcomes.

✦

Challenges with population growth and the role of AI and technology in solving them.

01:45:40

Emphasis on the importance of not undermining technology as the best solution for problems like disease.

Exploration of the philosophical distinction between unconstrained and constrained visions of the world.

Communism is presented as an example of the unconstrained vision, centralizing power among the elite to make decisions for everyone.

Thomas Sowell's analysis suggests potentially catastrophic results from the unconstrained vision.

✦

The concept of constrained vision is discussed, highlighting the contrast between decentralized decision-making and centralized control.

01:49:21

The importance of recognizing human imperfections and utilizing the intelligence and energy of a larger group for progress is emphasized.

The speaker warns against individuals claiming power to make decisions for everyone, pointing out their dominance in Washington and the press.

It is noted that these individuals are a minority, and the majority has the ability to resist decisions made in this manner.

✦

Contrasting perspectives on humility in dealing with nuclear power and AI regulation.

01:51:27

Enforcing regulations on AI is challenging due to its complex nature.

Allowing AI to naturally evolve can lead to positive outcomes and prevent unnecessary constraints.

The unenforceability of AI regulations may result in a better understanding of its benefits.

00:00it feels eerily to me like history is

00:02repeating itself like a lot more

00:03directly than I would prefer exactly

00:05like it happened you know in

00:06oppenheimer's time with the Russians I

00:08think there are a lot of lessons to draw

00:10from the mistakes that were made in that

00:11era and that we should not make those

00:12mistakes in this era and at least

00:13sitting here today those lessons are not

00:15being drawn no

00:25hello Mark how are you hey good

00:28afternoon I am excited to be with you

00:30today all right well we're we're going

00:32to talk about a uh probably the the

00:35biggest and most important film of the

00:37Year Oppenheimer

00:39um and why don't we just start out like

00:41uh you know you've been doing a bunch of

00:43reading on Oppenheimer the man uh what

00:45did you think of the film yeah so on

00:47balance I liked it a lot um so uh you

00:50know and I I you know there's a lot of

00:51ways to kind of score these films and of

00:53course Christopher Nolan is you know one

00:54of the one of the best filmmakers of our

00:56of our time

00:57um so obviously it's a great artistic

00:58achievement the other way that I always

01:00look at these things if it's anything

01:01historical of course is you know

01:02historical accuracy or as as close to it

01:04as we could possible as possibly get the

01:06challenge I always thought you know that

01:08like the challenge with any topic like

01:09Oppenheimer which was you know this as

01:11you saw on the movie and by the way

01:13we're going to spoil the movie like

01:14crazy which is I think uh appropriate

01:16because it's it is actually based on

01:20history we actually Know How It Ends

01:22um but true

01:24but but it's all on the Wikipedia page

01:26but uh you know like the challenges you

01:27know it took place you know it obviously

01:28took place during the height of

01:29Communism during the height of World War

01:31II and then the Cold War

01:33um and so it took place at a time when

01:34you know political passions were like

01:36greatly inflamed uh in the country and

01:37around the world and you know for 50 or

01:3960 years following that I think it was

01:41very hard for historians you know of

01:43sort of that generation or the

01:44generation that followed to be

01:46dispassionate about it

01:47um one of the things that struck me

01:48about the movie is it was you know no

01:50one is a Gen X filmmaker right um so

01:53he's post he's post Boomer he's Gen X

01:55and so he's he's

01:56scenario for a movie like this yeah I

02:00think that's right exactly yes the

02:01Boomers would have been a boomer would

02:02have been an issue a millennial would

02:03have been an issue uh the Gen X is is as

02:05usual Gen X is The Sweet Spot which is

02:07of course our situation by far

02:09generation exactly the generation that

02:11will never hold power but is

02:12nevertheless nevertheless the best one

02:15um and so um uh and so it would have

02:18felt like is he had enough removed from

02:20the passions of the time that he was

02:21able to be you know pretty I would say

02:24clinical about it um and so I I was I

02:26was pretty impressed by by how I told

02:28the story

02:30um and and well you know we'll talk

02:31about that in some detail um you know

02:33probably my my biggest issue with it was

02:35was the ending which we could also talk

02:36about

02:37um and on obviously a very down note

02:39um you know with respect to you know the

02:40potential end of the world which you

02:42know I think was actually very

02:43undeserved in terms of what actually

02:45ended up playing ended up playing out

02:46which I think we'll also talk about

02:47before we get into the ending

02:49um

02:50Let's uh just kind of start with some uh

02:53questions from Twitter uh this one's

02:55from DJ Wayne and he says what was it

02:59about oppenheimer's personality that

03:02made him different from other engineers

03:04and able to lead the Manhattan Project

03:06so it's a great question and also like

03:09how did General Groves

03:12like pick him really an unusual thing

03:15particularly when you think about how

03:16people are selected for things you know

03:18in today's government environment yeah

03:20well that's the thing and and you know

03:22they kind of alluded this in the movie A

03:23little bit I think a little bit of it

03:24was Oppenheimer was a very you know kind

03:26of well-respected he was like a very

03:28well respected interestingly almost like

03:30generalist physicist like he wasn't

03:31specifically known like he never won the

03:33Nobel Prize I don't think he was never

03:35specifically known for a single piece of

03:36breakthrough work the way that you know

03:38the way that an Einstein was but he was

03:40sort of respected by everybody and so I

03:41think it was a little bit of that I

03:42think it was honestly I think it was a

03:44little bit of down selection kind of the

03:45way that gross talks about in the in the

03:46film which is kind of like yeah he kind

03:48of ruled other other people out but but

03:50I actually wanted I would turn this

03:51question around to you which is at the

03:52time uh Oppenheimer was selected around

03:54the Manhattan Project he has not he had

03:56not actually run anything so it it

03:58really struck me in the interview he did

04:01with uh Groves in the movie which um

04:04you know I'm not sure exactly how

04:08historically accurate that interview was

04:10since it was just the two of them but

04:12it really felt like kind of a little

04:15like a selection process for an

04:17entrepreneur so you know we've invested

04:20in entrepreneurs who have never run

04:22anything uh and who have built giant

04:25companies and the thing that he had

04:28that was very clear in that interview

04:30was that kind of disagreeableness

04:32personality trait and specifically like

04:35he really

04:37thought for himself believed in his own

04:39ideas and didn't give a you know two

04:42cents what anybody else thought about

04:43what he thought which

04:45um in leadership turns out to matter

04:47probably as much as anything uh you know

04:51if you're influenced

04:53um if if you don't get strong enough

04:56conviction to be almost uninfluenceable

04:59it's very hard to build a company and I

05:00think that you know that thing kind of

05:03jumped out to me as

05:04oh I can see why he picked him you know

05:07this is the type of guy who could now

05:09the Manhattan Project was so spectacular

05:11and he was built a whole town he was the

05:14mayor he had people's whole families

05:16there you know he was directing like the

05:19smartest people in the world

05:21um who knew that he could do that like I

05:23think that was probably impossible to

05:24tell at the interview process but you

05:27could tell

05:28that at least he was the type of guy who

05:31had leadership skills

05:33um and and you know like many great

05:36leaders he was a bit of a Crazy

05:37Character yeah the other thing you know

05:39is he had a lot of he had a lot of

05:40infrastructural support behind him and

05:42he there was that great scene where

05:43they're out in the desert and

05:44oppenheimer's like we'll build it you

05:45know we'll build a town here and and uh

05:47grow snaps at his you know his adjective

05:49uh okay build him a town right and like

05:51you know boom there's a town yeah um

05:53right and so right and so and so part of

05:56that you know partly part of that was it

05:57was wartime and so part of that it was

05:58military control

05:59um uh part of that though it was you

06:01know look it was the old American

06:02industrial engine right was still

06:04running uh right it's the same

06:05industrial engine that won World War II

06:07right and there's there's great books

06:08about kind of the so-called Arsenal

06:10democracy which was this massive spin-up

06:11of the American manufacturing machine

06:12you know to build tanks and planes and

06:14everything there's actually this great

06:15book there's a economist Alexander field

06:17who's done this he's done a pair of

06:19great books in the 1930s 1940s but he

06:21talks in great detail he goes through

06:22basically the American Military

06:24production machine basically spun up in

06:2618 months you know from making base to

06:29be trains and cars for civilian use to

06:30making bombs and planes and tanks crazy

06:33yeah it was like an 18-month cut over

06:35they they made stuff for like two years

06:37and then they spent the next 18 months

06:39in by 1944 they were already spinning

06:41that machine down

06:43um and and going back to civilian

06:44production and so the the whole American

06:47production Miracle of that era which you

06:49know for sure saved the Soviet Union

06:50which maybe we'll talk about and saved

06:52Europe

06:53um right uh and saved you know Britain

06:55and everything else um you know and you

06:57know potentially you know the world

06:59um you know the the entire thing

07:00basically played out over the course of

07:02like you know basically four years four

07:03or five years

07:04um and so the the the speed and sort of

07:07quality of execution of the American

07:08production machine at that time you know

07:10what was was light years beyond what we

07:13have today and I I would uh for people

07:15who want to know kind of how much things

07:16have changed

07:17um you know there's this guy uh Ezra

07:19Klein who writes for the New York Times

07:20who I I kind of generally disagree you

07:22know disagree with on on almost

07:23everything but he wrote this amazing

07:24piece a few months back about the chips

07:26act

07:27um and the you know what it is supposed

07:29to be the production of new chip factors

07:30in the U.S to kind of return to this

07:32kind of production mentality you know

07:33for the you know sort of for the new

07:34cold war with China and he he wrote this

07:36great piece it's called the title of the

07:38piece is the problem with everything

07:40bagel liberalism and he uses the

07:42metaphor of the everything bagel to

07:44basically be the full load of sort of

07:46political implications for actually

07:48building anything in the U.S today which

07:50is basically a completely different

07:52Channel if you just read this piece he

07:53goes through it in detail a completely

07:55different challenge to actually build

07:57anything and so there is an amazing

07:58compare and contrast kind of right there

08:00between what was possible then it was

08:02possible now and you know my hope you

08:03know one of the hopes you have for

08:04movies like this is it kind of creates

08:06this very Vivid picture you know that

08:07that people used to be able to

08:09accomplish a lot in a very short amount

08:11of time um

08:13yeah exactly and you know look we had

08:15operation warp speed with a vaccine

08:16which was a little bit of a return to

08:18that um but um you know the American

08:20system today largely does not run like

08:22that anymore but it could yeah I mean it

08:24it's very interesting in that um a few

08:27things one is you know there was a

08:28government's role versus the private

08:30sector's role and then the fact that

08:33you know the government let the private

08:35sect sector do its thing and the fact

08:37that the private sector was run

08:40um you know largely by the founders of

08:43the companies at that time you know it

08:44was the the early days of the Industrial

08:46Revolution which

08:49um you know many of the kind of big

08:51manufacturers these days you know with

08:53the exception of you know companies like

08:55Tesla

08:56um are not uh at all run by their

08:59Founders and to kind of change from

09:01anything they're doing I think would be

09:03quite the challenge exactly like you put

09:06him to shop Elon could build tanks right

09:07yeah

09:08you know can the Legacy car companies

09:13well you know it's funny because the

09:16Legacy car companies at this point just

09:18assemble cars

09:20um yeah you know so they they would have

09:22to change every bit of the supply chain

09:24they don't make any of the parts uh so

09:26it's very different than the Henry Ford

09:28days when he um uh bought rubber you

09:32know bought uh

09:33land and

09:35um the Amazon so he could grow rubber

09:37tree plants so he could you know

09:39basically make every single part of the

09:41car uh so we're not in that world

09:43anymore so this is from uh vibhav uh and

09:49his question is if you directed The

09:51Oppenheimer movie what changes would you

09:53both make oh okay so I've got I've got a

09:56I've got a small one and a big one well

09:58I guess they're both big ones

10:00um so the small one is the treatment of

10:01Einstein

10:03um and uh do you have and what about the

10:05treatment of Einstein the treatment of

10:07Einstein so the treatment of Einstein is

10:09very interesting so the treatment of

10:10Einstein uh

10:11the treatment of oppenheimer's

10:13involvement with Communism I thought was

10:14was pretty bad was pretty pretty true to

10:17life in terms of at least what what I've

10:18read in the histories and what we know

10:20today well we actually know yeah yeah

10:21right we can talk about and Joe for

10:24people just uh there's one very

10:25important thing about communism in that

10:26era which is we know a lot more about

10:29what happened and in particular uh the

10:31affiliation of Americans with the Soviet

10:33Union in that era we know a lot more

10:34about that post the 1990s than people

10:36knew pre the 1990s and so a lot of the

10:39history a lot of the cultural history of

10:40that era is set by histories that were

10:42written between like you know 1950 and

10:4319 you know kind of 1990 kind of when

10:45the Boomers were writing history

10:47um but in the 1990s there was this uh

10:49this event happened which was the

10:50declassification of a set of

10:52intelligence files from the National

10:54Security Agency called the the

10:55winonophiles and it turns out that

10:57American intelligence had bugged Soviet

10:59Military Intelligence all through the

11:01Cold War and had intercepted all of the

11:03reports back and forth with their field

11:05with their case officers in the United

11:06States which means that the American

11:08intelligence Community all through the

11:09Cold War knew about a large number of

11:11Soviet spies operating in America

11:14um and they were they were unable to do

11:16anything about it because the

11:16information they were getting was so

11:18valuable it was one of those paradoxical

11:19situations where the information they

11:20were getting with this this Winona uh

11:22intercept system information was so

11:24valuable they couldn't use it because if

11:26they used it the Soviets would realize

11:27that their information would be info

11:29yeah yeah right the classic intelligence

11:31problem yeah yeah so they knew so that

11:33the intelligence Community knew that

11:35there were spies and they had to leave

11:36them in place

11:37um in senior levels of the government

11:39um uh because

11:40um they couldn't uh they couldn't risk

11:42the Soviets finding out that their uh

11:43their messages were being intercepted

11:45anyway you know the information gets you

11:47know uh Declassified at a certain point

11:49this information got Declassified in the

11:501990s and so we we know a lot more post

11:52the 1990s of exactly how broad and deep

11:55the Soviet intelligence penetration of

11:57American institutions in the Cold War

11:59actually was and by the way and in World

12:00War II before World War II

12:02um and you know the answer is it was

12:04very deep and very Broad and very

12:05pervasive and a very big problem uh in a

12:08way that is sort of very inconvenient

12:09you know to the memories of a lot of

12:10people at that time um and then

12:12also there there are just a lot of

12:14things that people said at the time that

12:15just kind of got brushed under the under

12:17the rug

12:18um uh you know later on and and so

12:20Einstein unfortunately and I know

12:22Einstein's a lot of people uh consider

12:24Einstein to be a hero not just

12:25scientifically but morally and in the

12:27movie paints him as a both a scientific

12:28and a moral hero which is kind of the

12:30received wisdom

12:31it's a little bit of an issue which is

12:33Einstein was kind of a stalinist

12:36he was kind of very Pro the Soviet Union

12:39and he was kind of very enthusiastic

12:41about Lenin

12:43um and he was kind of Pretty in favor of

12:45Stalin um and he said a bunch of things

12:48you know on the record you know kind of

12:49when his reputation was at its peak to

12:52sort of apologize for you know or sort

12:54of justify the Soviet Union and to

12:55attack the United States you know things

12:57today that you read and you're they're

12:58kind of eye-watering for people who want

13:00to dig into this there's a new book out

13:01that goes through this called when

13:03reason goes on holiday

13:05um and uh it goes through in detail uh

13:07Einstein's statements in the 20s and 30s

13:09in particular

13:10um uh that were sort of very kind of

13:12staunchly pro-communist the idea that he

13:14was this kind of you know neutral

13:16Arbiter of morality I think is is untrue

13:19and undeserved but you know like like

13:20they did enough it did a good enough job

13:21with Einstein on that there on

13:23Oppenheimer on that that I'll I'll cut

13:24them some slack one interesting comment

13:26um that I want to make on that is you

13:28know in Reading um

13:30you know and reading the Einstein

13:32chapter in the book one thing that

13:34struck me was he like intellectually

13:36basically fell for the banana and the

13:38tailpipe uh kind of trick of Communism

13:40which is oh their intentions were good

13:43yeah they may have like murdered a bunch

13:45of you know like a crazy number of

13:48people

13:49but they had the best intentions and

13:51it's like what are you talking about

13:52they didn't have any good intentions

13:55um and and it and what it doesn't matter

13:57anyway if the result is that but that

13:58was like exactly the argument he was

14:00making to his friends at the time which

14:02I thought wow if Einstein literally

14:05Einstein gets fooled by that like that

14:07that was really kind of like a profound

14:10um

14:12thing for me anyway yeah and there was

14:14this real and they they show this in the

14:15movie a fair amount with kind of how

14:16Oppenheimer fell into communism you know

14:18which is look you have to you know you

14:20have to you have to um I'm gonna I'm

14:21gonna amuse my partner Ben here but I'm

14:23gonna sort of justify communism a little

14:25bit and then come back around on it

14:27um you kind of have you have to put

14:28yourself in the in the frame of mind of

14:30the era right in the frame of mind of

14:31the era was you know the early 1900s was

14:34supposed to be you know the 20th century

14:36was supposed to be a century of peace

14:37and prosperity right and people had very

14:39high expectations in the 1900s of the

14:41first decade and then World War One was

14:43a shattering event with just you know

14:45Mass Slaughter in all directions you

14:46know mechanized Slaughter for the first

14:48time and it was you know deeply you know

14:49it sort of fractured you know

14:51permanently sort of fractured Western

14:52culture and a whole bunch of profound

14:54ways and then

14:55um and then it was followed by the Great

14:57Depression right and so you know

14:59especially by the by the early mid 1930s

15:01you just had this kind of profound you

15:03know meltdown what looked like was

15:05capitalism was failing it looked like

15:06capitalism was was was basically a

15:08failed system

15:09um you know anybody who was sort of

15:10inclined towards commune anybody sort of

15:12incline of the egalitarian you know kind

15:14of presumptions behind communism kind of

15:16were like okay this is this is the proof

15:17that that the Communists are right and

15:19that we need a new system and then they

15:21kind of alluded this I think in the

15:22movie also which is like if everything

15:23else is changing in the world like if

15:25you know quantum physics changes our

15:26understanding of reality you know World

15:28War One changes our understanding of War

15:30right um and so you know it kind there

15:32was a revolutionary kind of fever of the

15:34time of like okay maybe everything is

15:35changing including the birth of this new

15:37system and so there was this it was this

15:39very kind of powerful magnetic pull uh

15:41especially for you know as it turns out

15:43especially for kind of super high IQ

15:45people

15:45um I would say super high IQ people

15:47super verbal people

15:49um which is sort of a recurring pattern

15:51um which we could talk about and then

15:52the other is is people who live in a

15:54world of abstraction and of course

15:55theoretical physicists you know for the

15:57most part live in the world of

15:58abstraction actually the movie right

15:59does this he says you know Theory only

16:00gets you so far

16:02um you know when when uh when they use

16:04that phrase in the movie it refers to

16:05the science but you could also use that

16:07to talk about you know communist Theory

16:09only gets you so far

16:10the problem with all of that right and

16:13so and this is kind of the excuse that

16:15people make which is like well you know

16:16kind of it looked good at the time you

16:17know kind of excuse the problem with

16:19that is the catastrophe of Communism

16:21sort of became visible for anybody who

16:24wanted to see it the catastrophe of

16:25Communism became visible very quickly

16:28um because when Lenin took control of

16:29the Soviet Union the Soviet Union

16:30immediately fell into a devastating

16:32famine which which was the direct

16:34consequence of basically killing the

16:35kulaks which basically meant killing all

16:37the productive people in the country

16:38which was a very kind of specific and

16:41replacing everybody in the government

16:42with peasants

16:44yeah that's right yeah well expertise

16:46right if you the the the Merit was gone

16:50you know just uh the whole meritocracy

16:53idea which actually did exist in Cyrus

16:56Russia to some degree in the government

16:58um was basically flattened in the in

17:00what like three days yeah you know this

17:03is all this comes across as ancient

17:04history now but it's relevant important

17:05so there was this concept of the kulax

17:06uh which is kind of this pejorative term

17:09inside the Soviet Union for you know

17:10they use these terms like the cool acts

17:12the Wreckers

17:14um um you know the the people who were

17:15kind of opposed to Communism and and

17:16basically what the definition was is

17:18they were the smart and productive

17:19people right um and so they were the p

17:21and so the the the way the story

17:23basically goes is if you were in a town

17:25or Village and you were like basically a

17:27destitute subsistence farmer and there

17:29was a farmer next door that had two cows

17:30and you had one cow he was a kulak and

17:33basically the presumption of the Russian

17:34Communist Revolution was you got to kill

17:36him and take his cows right

17:38um right and so like that was the core

17:40animating sort of resentment this is

17:42sort of the problem of Communism right

17:43resentment Envy rage right or sort of

17:46the the fuel that makes the thing run

17:48the result was they basically killed all

17:49the productive people and then yeah they

17:51basically tried to run the country with

17:52all the not productive people you know

17:53pull pot years later basically skipped

17:55the whole people with glasses

17:57right go straight straight to the

18:00logical conclusion right

18:02um right which is just like wipe out all

18:04the smart people quote unquote you know

18:05smart people anyway the the point though

18:07to the movie right is it there were

18:09reports out of the Soviet Union you know

18:10they were sort of the equivalent of

18:11whistleblowers basically from the very

18:13beginning and then and then the show you

18:14know the show trials you know kind of

18:16kicked in early on and they were sort of

18:17you know garishly embarrassing for

18:18anybody who wanted to look and then they

18:20were all the you know they were just all

18:21these cases of you know people were

18:22getting you know scientists were getting

18:23killed like there was all this just like

18:25crazy stuff happening and so the the the

18:26the book The when reason goes on holiday

18:28goes through this in detail but the

18:30information was available to anybody who

18:31wanted to see it and so I you know and

18:33again it's hard to argue this after the

18:35fact but like I was gonna say you had to

18:38be like an increasingly staunch

18:39communist to basically continue to be a

18:41communist not only through the 1920s but

18:43also the 1930s also the 19th 40s also

18:45the 1950s also the 1960s like new

18:48information just kept coming out uh and

18:50unfortunately you know the history of

18:51this is is that you know Einstein and

18:53Oppenheimer and others basically chose

18:55to ignore uh the information and they

18:57and they chose they chose to buy into a

18:59system sort of past the point that you

19:00know at least for people as smart as

19:02they were you know it kind of should

19:03have been obvious um and for

19:04unfortunately Einstein uh is is with

19:06Oppenheimer in that yeah so let me kind

19:08of defend the Communists a little more

19:10on that because

19:13right knowing what we know now

19:16um

19:16you'd have to be like either like a

19:20weird cultist or an idiot or something

19:22like that to to think that a system that

19:24killed 100 million people in the last

19:26century is a good idea 200 200 200

19:29million

19:31give them give them full credit all

19:33right full credit good luck good god

19:36um but you know at the time so my my

19:38grandparents were Communists um and you

19:42know kind of remembering them like my

19:45grandfather got to the United States

19:46from Russia in 1908

19:49um so and you know they had his family

19:52had to flee Russia from the from uh the

19:55Tsar uh and you know it was like a

19:58pretty bad situation and you know they

20:00got here with nothing and um you know

20:02he's a little kid who's has to learn

20:05English and all these kinds of things uh

20:07and then you know the Bolshevik

20:09Revolution happens and it's super

20:11exciting for them

20:13and then you know like the world the

20:17Social Circles the New York Times were

20:20all like

20:21you know the whole Community was was

20:24very pro-communism uh or a huge part of

20:28the intellectual Community was including

20:30the press a lot of the press uh and so

20:33you know and then the dream was Utopia

20:36so they were kind of yes they willfully

20:40overlooked

20:42um some of the or many of the facts

20:44coming out but for every kind of fact

20:46that was coming out about the atrocities

20:48there was somebody in the Press writing

20:51but this is a much better system and

20:53look at all the happy people and

20:54Stalin's a great guy and so forth so it

20:57was a lot more I would just say the

20:59times were much more confusing around

21:01what communism was and what it was going

21:03to become than it is you know like today

21:05you know we know what happened

21:07um sadly yeah I would just say I mean

21:09for me that leads to an even more

21:10damning critique though which is a

21:12broader critique of the system you know

21:13as it existed at that time right which

21:15to your point right which was basically

21:17and there's I'll recommend another book

21:19here called red decade uh which was

21:20written by an American journalist Eugene

21:22Lyons who kind of figured this out early

21:23and wrote this book basically about the

21:251920s and about the level of sort of

21:27communist enthusiasm in the United

21:29States the 1920s yeah right um by the

21:31way we to give you a sense of how

21:33enthusiastic people were about communism

21:34like basically an overt communist ran

21:36for president 1948 uh Henry Wallace

21:39um who was basically an overt communist

21:41and Soviet basically sympathizer and he

21:43got you know two million votes

21:45um probably all from smart people and I

21:49was going to say he got the two million

21:50votes from precisely the zip codes you

21:51would imagine he would get the 2 million

21:53votes from

21:54um it was not Factory workers in Ohio

21:56right

21:57right it was the fanciest you know

21:59suburbs yeah right and University towns

22:02and so you know even up until 1948 at

22:04the beginning of the Cold War right when

22:06you know when all of the show trials and

22:07everything everybody knew about

22:08everything you know the disasters the

22:10stalinism and the famines right and the

22:11whole the the whole thing was out you

22:13know he still you still had two million

22:15basically Arden Communists and you know

22:16kind of as late as that period and they

22:18were basically the American Elites but

22:19to your point like this phenomenon

22:21started basically in the early 1920s or

22:22even in the 1910s and then through the

22:241920s and 1930s you know the the

22:26American Elite Class like intellectuals

22:28the scientists the academics you know it

22:30was yeah I mean it was the thing it was

22:32the thing to do they they also mentioned

22:34this in the movie another thing I'll

22:35give the movie credit for is they have

22:36this kind of side comment which is half

22:38the faculty at Berkeley is communist

22:39right and it's like well okay first of

22:41all yes that was correct

22:43two is like was it only half

22:45yeah there are so many Communists in

22:49Berkeley today having grown up there I

22:51was going to say it's still true

22:52right

22:55and so so like yeah no look it was

22:58totally that you know look the you know

22:59the famous you know the famous uh you

23:01know case the New York Times you know

23:02correspondent Walter Durante you know

23:04basically outright you know basically

23:05just lying uh in the New York Times

23:07telling a fake story surprise for lying

23:10you know not just lying but being

23:12awarded the highest honor

23:15exactly and to my knowledge I don't

23:17think that's ever been retracted right I

23:18think that's still I believe that's

23:20still an active price I don't think they

23:21ever retracted it no no

23:24um right and so yeah so it was it was

23:26this it it was the philosophy of it was

23:28the philosophy of the American Elites it

23:30was it super saturated the culture

23:32um you know and then if you read the

23:34accounts of the time it's actually very

23:35funny

23:36um uh if you read the accounts of

23:37Communists at the time because basically

23:39it was like so basically a big part of

23:42the Communist kind of energy at that

23:44time right it started out with the

23:45Communist being against kind of the

23:46aristocracies like like the the Zara

23:48system in Russia but then it in the 20s

23:50and 30s you know the the sort of story

23:52the Communists told themselves as they

23:53were fighting fascism right and this was

23:54the this you know this was the rise of

23:56fascism in Germany and and Spain and

23:57Italy and other places right but but

23:59also uh you know the term anti-fascist

24:01was created in that era right actually

24:02by the Soviets as a propaganda term to

24:05basically and you know kind of mean

24:06communist but then there was this

24:07amazing moment where the uh Hitler and

24:09Stalin right Allied what was it in like

24:111940 1941 in the molotov ribbon top pact

24:15um and then the all of the all of the

24:18Communists in the west basically had to

24:19on a dime change their position from the

24:21fashion sorry the anime to the fascists

24:23are a friend

24:24um right and that caused a bunch of

24:26people a bunch of Communists had error

24:28to lose Faith right because they're like

24:29okay wait a minute like apparently

24:30there's there's no there are no morals

24:32here and and then and then and then it

24:35was like 18 months later right uh what

24:36was that Hitler broached that pact right

24:38and attacked the Soviet Union and then

24:40and then the party line from Moscow

24:42changed back to the fascists or the

24:43enemy yeah right

24:45um and the way that Soviet Union did

24:47that at that time right the term Party

24:48Line literally was the instructions from

24:50the Kremlin on what Global Communists

24:52are supposed to believe and when uh when

24:54American Communists would have there

24:55basically meetings they would have these

24:56study sessions uh to establish whether

24:58they were to basically test each other

25:00for being quote unquote politically

25:01correct uh whether they could follow the

25:03party line which was the dictates from

25:04from Moscow so so you you had these kind

25:07of wrenching turns you know basically in

25:09what communism meant um and and what the

25:12information was and it's kind of right

25:13it's kind of imprint on the on the

25:15American psyche and the Western psyche

25:17um and and then yeah look you had people

25:19were tested along the way and I'm sure

25:20you know you're I'm sure members of your

25:22family were tested like this along the

25:23way which was like okay like how long

25:25are you going to be willing to basically

25:27buy into this how long are you going to

25:28put up with it how long are you going to

25:30believe what's in the newspaper right

25:32like how many how many how many

25:34atrocities are you willing to count and

25:35that's how you know the old thing of

25:37like you can't make an omelette without

25:38breaking eggs okay how many eggs yeah

25:41yeah and I think you know like part of

25:43part of the and by the way like it just

25:45it's striking as you said that how many

25:48of the Communist terms have come back

25:52social justice cancel culture you know

25:55they're all uh you know they're all

25:57Concepts from from the kind of

26:00soviet-era Communism and uh and

26:03everybody's cool with it which is

26:05um you know Democratic socialists like

26:08they're all like you know Lenin's ideas

26:10and so forth and people are like you

26:13know could you it's hard to imagine like

26:14Hitler's ideas coming back and people

26:16being like okay using his language uh

26:18but yet here we are for sure yeah I

26:21think that um

26:24that my father always said uh you know

26:27kind of having grown up in that world

26:28was that

26:30it was a full religion like it was you

26:33know they weren't really and communism

26:35you know one of the things it did is it

26:36outlawed other religions

26:38um and communism itself was a full

26:41religion so like that that notion of

26:44faith and um belief I think overrode

26:48facts to a dramatic degree for most of

26:52those people well also as it showed in

26:54the movie right it was also how you got

26:55laid

26:56oh yeah yeah yeah yeah that was a big

26:58thing

27:00right like these are the coolest people

27:02at the coolest parties right with like

27:04lots of girls right um and lots of you

27:06know young men no no puritanical

27:09Christian morals and many none of that

27:11BS you toss that out yeah no look I mean

27:14the USSR even wanted to eliminate the

27:15family right one of their one of their

27:16big programs just eliminate you know

27:17basically the idea of monogamy the idea

27:19of you know having to take

27:20responsibility for you know they wanted

27:21the Soviets wanted children's children

27:23raised in group homes

27:25um right which would leave the parents

27:26free to be full-time Communists and you

27:27know do all the things that you got to

27:29do if you were Communists it's come back

27:31yeah

27:35these words and these these ideas yeah

27:38yep exactly the ideas are not dead

27:41um so um so yeah so the the other thing

27:43in the movie

27:44um we can come back to Communism if you

27:46want but um you know the other thing in

27:47the movie that I thought um was

27:48important I that I thought was

27:51in a sense it was a it was correct and

27:54in a sense it very it very much wasn't

27:55and so the the very end of the movie

27:58um you know there's this kind of pivotal

27:59final kind of conversation with uh uh

28:01Einstein and Oppenheimer where Einstein

28:03basically says you know you didn't set

28:04the world on fire but maybe you actually

28:06did right which is to say that the bomb

28:08didn't literally burn down you know the

28:10the atmosphere as they were worried

28:11about for a moment but you know

28:12nevertheless you have now created the an

28:14arms race you know the existence of the

28:16bomb now creates an arms race both sides

28:18are gonna you know the implication being

28:19both sides are going to build arsenals

28:21and then at some point the Bob's going

28:22to get lost and it launched in the world

28:24would be destroyed and so it it ends in

28:26this note of like basically you are you

28:28Oppenheimer and you know by implication

28:30us the audience right are kind of

28:32responsible for the end of the world

28:33yeah

28:34now in a sense you know I think that's a

28:37valid choice because with what they knew

28:40at the time like that was a very you

28:42know valid fear and lots of you know

28:43smart people who you know including

28:45people like the Rand Corporation who

28:47were thinking through like game theory

28:48of nuclear war and so forth were very

28:49worried about you know these these

28:50scenarios

28:52um so on the one hand like that was a

28:53valid Choice given what they knew at the

28:54time you know look having said that

28:55sitting here in the year 2023 and

28:57looking back um I think we now know I

28:59would say quite conclusively

29:01um you know as much as you can know

29:02anything involving counterfactuals I

29:04think we know or I would argue that we

29:06know that the invention of the atomic

29:08bomb and the uh the doctrine of mutually

29:10assured Direction destruction that

29:12resulted from that prevented world war

29:14three

29:15um and when I say prevented World War

29:17III I mean that had the bomb not been

29:19developed and had both the you know had

29:21both ultimately the US and USSR not not

29:24developed the arsenals that they did

29:26um you know the it like it was it seemed

29:28very probable then and now

29:30um that the US and the USSR were going

29:32to have World War III in the 1950s or

29:34the 19 60s or frankly maybe as late as

29:36the 1980s

29:38um the way things unfolded

29:40um and that the world war three would

29:42have been you know if not a nuclear war

29:44it would have been you know a

29:45conventional war that would have made

29:47World War II look like Child's Play

29:49right so it would have been and if you

29:51think about the stepwise thing you had

29:52the the rise of mechanized Slaughter

29:54with you know tanks and planes starting

29:56in World War one and then you had like

29:58you know World War II is just

29:59devastating levels of death um writing

30:01including by the way Mass civilian death

30:02by firebombing right which which which

30:04the movie didn't spend that much time on

30:05which which we could talk about right

30:07the the deaths from the civilian death

30:09from the skies was not new with the

30:10atomic bomb right like the Germans and

30:12the Americans right we you know we we we

30:14we did a lot of firebombing of both

30:17German cities many war crimes many such

30:19cases well they were okay yeah there

30:21were other cases there I think it was I

30:22forget I think it was Lemay who said

30:23yeah basically if the US loses World War

30:25II we're all going to get prosecuted for

30:26war crimes because you know the the US

30:28was firebombing cities

30:30um you know with you know with

30:31conventional incendiaries and killing

30:33hundreds of thousands of people

30:34um you know kind of per City so

30:36um so so anyway the point being like

30:38World War II was like a a Charnel house

30:40like it was just absolutely devastating

30:41in terms of mass death and so you have

30:43to kind of close your eyes and imagine

30:45basically the atomic bomb didn't exist

30:47the project failed or never happened

30:49um and then you roll into World War III

30:52with the USSR in the 50s and 60s with

30:55another step up in The lethality of

30:57conventional Munitions and of Convention

30:59of of mechanized Warfare

31:01um and you just have to imagine

31:03basically a massive ground war you know

31:05on the European planes you know for the

31:08next decade you know and you know and

31:10spilling you know all throughout the

31:11extending all throughout the world and

31:13you know imagine you know 200 million

31:15people dying in that war

31:17right

31:18um and and and it at least it seems to

31:20me and I think a lot of historians now

31:22believe the the existence of the bomb

31:24and I should talk about what we mean by

31:25the bomb also because the existence of

31:27the A-bomb but also in particularly

31:28existence the h-bomb the hydrogen bomb

31:30uh prevented that from happening

31:33um and and so you know look sitting here

31:35today like that's the war that never

31:36happened there have been other Wars that

31:37have happened but not at that level of

31:39scale in the time sense and so there are

31:41probably something like 200 million

31:42people alive today who would not be

31:44alive had Oppenheimer not invented the

31:46bomb if this gets into the the

31:47underlying kind of theory you know the

31:48game theory of nuclear war which is like

31:49okay like if you know if there's some

31:52non-zero chance if there's a 99 chance

31:54of preventing world war three and a one

31:56percent chance of destroying everything

31:58you know like the you know the game

32:00theory on that gets very tricky but but

32:01but look like at some point you have to

32:03give credit for what actually happened

32:04and what actually happened is that World

32:06War III didn't happen and hopefully

32:07doesn't with nuclear capability that

32:10would suck uh just you know one kind of

32:13comment on that original question about

32:16how how to change the firm there the the

32:19film I think that

32:21um and it's a minor thing but it would

32:22have been great to have John Von Neumann

32:25as a character for a couple reasons when

32:27he's just like a brilliant funny guy and

32:29it would have brought in the kind of

32:30invention of the of the modern computer

32:33architecture

32:35um but the other thing is you know he

32:37was not a communist uh so the the

32:41non-communists did exist and it would

32:42have been at least intellectually

32:45really interesting to kind of understand

32:47what those conversations were like

32:50anyhow so next question let's talk about

32:52let's talk about him for a second if we

32:53could because I know he's he's your

32:55favorite he's your favorite also so

32:57so there's this great book that that Ben

32:59and I've read this I think it's called

33:00The Man from the future

33:03the Van Norman book and so I think it

33:05does a very good job of telling telling

33:06about Norman's side of the story so a

33:07couple things about that so so one is

33:09look there were people you know back to

33:12our earlier discussion of Communism

33:13there were people who saw this clearly

33:14at the time they saw the Soviets for

33:16what they were in the 20s and 30s and

33:18Von Neumann was one of those people

33:20um and Von Neumann is quoted by many

33:22people who knew him in the 20s and 30s

33:24as basically being almost eerily

33:26prescient in terms of like how world

33:27affairs would unfold he was a Jewish

33:29immigrant from from Hungary he hated the

33:31Nazis as much as anybody but he had the

33:33Soviets dialed in from jump right he

33:35knew exactly what they were and and the

33:37threat that they were he was

33:38anti-communist in a sort of a a staunch

33:41cold warrior you know an anti-soviet you

33:43know his his whole life so he saw it by

33:46the way other people who saw it uh they

33:47the Boris Pash the security officer

33:50um he saw it and they mentioned that in

33:51the movie and then they they lost us

33:53over but Lewis Strauss you know who's a

33:54major character in the movie

33:56um he also had seen the horrors of

33:57Communism up close in the around the

33:59time of the Russian Revolution there

34:01were people who saw it by the way

34:02another person who saw it interesting

34:03around right who was starting to rise to

34:06prominence in this era because she was a

34:07refugee from you know basically the the

34:09Russian Revolution she saw it she told

34:11everybody what was going on and you know

34:13most people ignored her uh and so so

34:15there were people who saw it anyway so

34:16Von Neumann is one of the people who saw

34:18it so so that turned him into this very

34:21very staunch anti-communist um and you

34:23know he's a hero both Ben's in mind but

34:24let me say that you can apply also a

34:26general critique to Von Neumann also

34:28which which is very interesting thing

34:30which is sort of this this this this

34:31idea of like the danger of science the

34:34danger of people who are very

34:35intellectually smart

34:37um and live in a world of abstraction

34:39and in a world of ideas

34:41um basically when they when they map

34:42into politics things don't go well and

34:44you know of course sitting here today at

34:46least Ben and I would say that van

34:47Neumann like had a clear review of

34:49politics than you know the napenheimer

34:50Einstein did however having said that

34:52Von Neumann uh you know by the early 19

34:55late 1940s early 1950s was advocating a

34:57nuclear first strike against the Soviet

34:58Union and his famous line his famous

35:00line was um if you tell me we could bomb

35:02them tomorrow I I say why not today if

35:05you tell if you tell me we could bomb

35:07them at 5 PM I say how about 1 p.m yeah

35:09and so in his theory and he had a theory

35:12his theory was if America has the bomb

35:14and the Soviet Union doesn't have the

35:15bomb then there's basically a moment in

35:17time opportunity to basically take them

35:19out before they get the bomb and they

35:20become a threat

35:22um and basically he he then advocated a

35:24full nuclear First Strike now and let me

35:25just say for the record like I I'm not I

35:27don't support that either

35:29right I don't think that would have been

35:31good either right so so you had this

35:33thing where you know you had basically

35:36the the scientists on the one side being

35:37way too sympathetic to the Soviets you

35:40had the people on the other side being

35:42you know arguably

35:44um you know way too hawkish

35:46um and so you know you have these like

35:48Ultra you know and Von Neumann may be

35:50the smartest person in the 20th century

35:52right and even he got so kind of pulled

35:54into all this that he advocated for you

35:56know what were certainly war crimes if

35:57not you know genocide

35:59um and so this thing where we take our

36:02best and brightest scientists

36:03intellectuals and thinkers and

36:05professors and academics and sort of

36:07media Superstars and we and Adventures

36:09of new technology and we kind of impute

36:11into them moral wisdom and sort of

36:13political judgment like the entire

36:16history of that era is basically a giant

36:17case study and don't do that yeah well

36:19and Von Norman went on to invent Game

36:22Theory

36:23um which then he tried to apply to

36:26politics again and I think

36:28retrospectively most of those ideas were

36:30extremely bad personality wise you know

36:33he he was kind of both funnier and then

36:35uh much more direct than the other guys

36:37kind of running away from the facts well

36:40and he was appalled right by what he saw

36:42right he was appalled by all the

36:43Communists in the government and in the

36:46scientific establishment right and and

36:47by the way I think justifiably so yeah

36:49no he was Furious actually this brings

36:51um the next question which is very

36:53interesting which is uh Sanjay Thacker

36:56who says can you discuss the historical

36:59context of oppenheimer's security

37:01clearance revocation during the McCarthy

37:04era and its implications for the balance

37:06between individual freedoms and National

37:08Security which is very interesting

37:10because it's it's kind of an idea that

37:12um or a question that's come up come

37:14back up in that uh you know we have

37:20a kind of mccarthy-esque

37:23kind of uh movement going on now you

37:27know from the other uh Direction

37:30um so how do you think about that you

37:32know both with Oppenheimer and then in

37:34general so the history here is that the

37:36it's very important so the the there's

37:38very important Point thing to be learned

37:39from the history here which is sort of

37:40so we have this quite a cultural memory

37:41of this thing called the Red Scare right

37:43and and even the term of It kind of

37:45loads the thing of like it was a scare

37:46right as opposed to something real right

37:48and then it was sort of this McCarthyism

37:49and it was so unfair that these people

37:50were getting blacklisted I know you have

37:53Ben has family members who are

37:54blacklisted so this is maybe still a

37:56little bit of a sore spot

37:57um yeah yeah I'd like to talk about that

37:59actually it's a fairly interesting story

38:01yeah exactly so we'll come to that but

38:03um uh just for the record I did not but

38:07um if you go back and you reconstruct

38:08sort of what actually happened in that

38:10era like let's let's put the term Red

38:12Scare aside for a moment because it's

38:14gotten very loaded up with assumptions

38:15but let's just say like anti-communist

38:17sentiment

38:18um it actually turns out there were sort

38:20of three ways of anti-communist

38:21sentiment in the U.S so there were there

38:22was a wave immediately following the

38:24Russian Revolution so there was sort of

38:25this is sort of referred to as the

38:26original Red Scare sort of from sort of

38:281917 to like I don't know what it was

38:301921 or 1922 there was this moment where

38:32basically it was like oh my God the reds

38:33are coming

38:35um right and and I think a lot of that

38:36when I read the history a lot of that

38:38was basically it was it was literally

38:39going to be that it was like the labor

38:41basically it was the unions basically it

38:42was that the unions were going communist

38:44and that basically they were going to be

38:45like General strikes and you know the

38:47American economy is going to get shut

38:48down and Communists were going to take

38:49over all of our industrial companies so

38:51there was like this brief moment in time

38:53um where there was like an

38:54anti-communist sentiment and then in the

38:551920s that that faded and I think the

38:58reason that faded um is because the

39:01Soviet Union actually reopened

39:03economically in the 1920s and so the the

39:05the true story of what happened is

39:07Lennon took over the the country

39:08immediately fell into famine um Lenin

39:10actually backpedaled on economic

39:12communism and he created this thing

39:13called the new economic program uh the

39:15NEP and he basically invited in America

39:17and American Business and American

39:19Business people to basically make money

39:21in Russia in sort of the same way that

39:22happened by the way in Russia the 1990s

39:24it was sort of a parallel you know kind

39:25of thing to that and it was literally

39:27because he needed he needed American and

39:29Western industrial production to

39:30basically like keep the country from

39:32like literally just dying

39:33um and so the 1920 and that was when

39:35sort of Communism became cool in the U.S

39:37right which which is sort of like oh

39:39okay these are our friend these are our

39:40friends you know these are our kind of

39:43Junior Partners you know we're kind of

39:45rescuing them we're kind of in bed with

39:47them we're making a lot of money with

39:48them and so there was very little

39:50anti-communist energy in the US the

39:521920s um there was very little in the

39:541930s you know with as we discussed with

39:56with the Great Depression by the way

39:58through that era

39:59um like the US government was basically

40:02not concerned with whether people were

40:04Communists when they hired them and this

40:06is the setting you know with which you

40:07know in which Oppenheimer is selected

40:09and all these other scientists are

40:09selected you know Groves Groves makes

40:11that comment later that you know we

40:12wouldn't have been able to clear any of

40:13these people you know

40:14um right because

40:17many of them were Communists or

40:19Economist affiliations

40:21um and and by the way there were

40:22Communists you know there were

40:22Communists they were was according to

40:24the reports of the time

40:26um you know they were Communists in the

40:27OSS which was the Forerunner of the CIA

40:28at the time and Donovan who ran the

40:30general Donovan who ran the OSS at the

40:32time really fundamentally didn't care

40:33Whitaker Chambers tells this amazing

40:35story in his book of how he basically

40:37tried to out himself to the US

40:38government as a Soviet Military

40:40Intelligence uh recruiter um in the

40:421930s and he's he according to his story

40:44it takes him six years to get taken

40:46seriously by the FBI and the justice

40:47department they just didn't care like it

40:49wasn't the Soviets were not the problem

40:50they were not the problem they didn't

40:52care so then there was a flurry of

40:53anti-communist sort of energy in the

40:55during that period where Hitler and

40:57Stalin were Allied and so there was sort

40:58of this abortive short little moment in

41:00the early 40s and then that faded and

41:02then you know look Stalin became our

41:03huge friend and Ally you know kind of

41:05all the way through World War II and

41:06then the quote-unquote Red Scare the

41:07McCarthy thing didn't really start until

41:09the late 40s early 50s and so the point

41:11being like whether you even cared or if

41:13you were in a position of responsibility

41:14and Power in the U.S and even if you

41:17weren't a communist and didn't have

41:18communist sympathies you didn't really

41:19care if you were dealing with a

41:20communist except During the period in

41:22which there was actual inflamed

41:24relations between the US and the Soviet

41:26Union and so basically the the morality

41:28as experienced in the US was dependent

41:30on what was happening internationally at

41:31that moment

41:33um and I think that's very important to

41:34understand because it's we can go back

41:36to this later but this directly applies

41:37to what's happening with China today

41:40um yeah right which is there are people

41:43who have been close to China over the

41:45last 20 years who are starting to wake

41:47up and realize that they probably made a

41:49big mistake

41:50um because the moral valence of China is

41:52changing in real time as the US becomes

41:54more anti-china as China becomes a

41:56greater threat uh it's perceived to be a

41:58greater threat um you know but sort of

42:00by both parties in Washington and so it

42:01feels like we're going through one of

42:02those moments again

42:03um but anyway I just wanted to go

42:04through that which is like that's the

42:06nature that the reason the quote-unquote

42:08Red Scare and McCarthyism and so forth

42:10like seem so shocking at the time to

42:12people including people of course who

42:13got caught up in it right um is because

42:16it it followed 20 or 25 years for the

42:19most part of nobody caring

42:21right and so so it was like this is what

42:23Nisha called a revaluation it was like

42:25this change in values and morals

42:28that basically was the result of a

42:29geopolitical power shift and then the

42:32threat of a threat

42:35your business and yeah everybody

42:37everybody including John Von Neumann had

42:39communist friends

42:40like Einstein

42:43yeah right well you couldn't I mean yeah

42:45I mean much like today right you

42:47couldn't you couldn't live or work in

42:49the setting of an American University

42:50and not no Communists like it was not

42:51not possible right and again like we

42:54talked about like they were the cool

42:55people right um yeah the people you

42:57wanted to be friends with absolutely

42:58they had the best parties right so um

43:02so anyway like so so my sympathy such as

43:04it is for people who got caught up in

43:06the Red Scare is basic it's less that

43:08they were unfairly it's less that it was

43:10unfair to basically Target them for

43:12being communists it was I would argue it

43:14was more that it was unfair that the

43:16rules changed on them kind of in the

43:17middle of the game which is it was fine

43:19to be communist up to a certain point

43:21and then all of a sudden it wasn't

43:22anymore anyway my point being like or

43:24even independent of your view of the

43:26morality of that like that was a giant

43:28change in kind of the ethos of what it

43:29meant to be communist um that that

43:31kicked in around the time McCarthy

43:32getting prominence so so my grandfather

43:34is um

43:36story is actually sort of interesting on

43:38this so he he was a school teacher

43:40um and he was during the McCarthy era he

43:43was fired from his job for being a

43:44communist which he was uh but the way he

43:48got busted was actually quite

43:51interesting so the the whole

43:53not just the term but the concept of

43:56cancel culture originated in the uh

43:59actually I think in the American

44:01Communist party I'm not positive but I

44:03I'm pretty sure but it was certainly

44:05prevalent in the American Communist

44:07Party

44:08and uh the head of the teachers union

44:11was also a communist

44:13um and he voted against her on some

44:15whatever School issue and as Revenge she

44:20canceled him by turning him over to the

44:22McCarthy Heights and he was thus fired

44:25and and I'll just say this about that is

44:28he really should not have you know like

44:30he was a communist but he should have

44:31been fired because he was absolutely not

44:34teaching communism in his classroom he

44:37wasn't doing anything to promote it or

44:40and he was he was like very

44:43um

44:44kind of strict about that with himself

44:46he he believed that would be a bad idea

44:48so you know this gets into

44:51you know how far these ideas go of like

44:54okay well can you are you allowed to do

44:57bad things like be a Russian spy well we

45:01shouldn't allow that but are you allowed

45:03to think bad thoughts are you allowed to

45:05have bad conversations and once you go

45:08once you cross that line then you kind

45:11of become the thing that you're trying

45:12to prevent uh so that's so I I would say

45:15fairly

45:17um you know the McCarthy era gets

45:19criticized for that and look we're

45:20seeing that brought back now where

45:22you know it's important even if people

45:25are wrong it's important uh I think in a

45:27free society that they be that we'd be

45:29able to have the discussion

45:31um at least among adults you know like

45:33indoctrinating kids that kind of thing

45:35you know I can understand why why that

45:37uh might not be a good idea

45:40um but uh to start to go as far as okay

45:43we're outlawing this whole kind of line

45:46of thinking

45:47um gets very very dangerous fast so

45:50let's talk about the gradations there

45:51because I think we agree probably on the

45:53extremes right

45:55um but I think we maybe disagree

45:56somewhere in the middle so how many how

45:58many communist School teachers do you

45:59think there were in your grandfather's

46:00era in the U.S

46:08let's talk about that yeah so Queens

46:11Queens New York what what percent what

46:12would you estimate what percentage at

46:13that time would have been Communists of

46:15the teacher I mean to be fair this would

46:18be a better question for my father I

46:20don't know but there there's certainly a

46:21lot of them and so and what portion of

46:23those were um let's let's assume your

46:27grandfather was being as strict as you

46:28say that he was and not bringing

46:29communism into the classroom what

46:31percentage of the Communist teachers in

46:32Queens of that era were bringing

46:33communism into the classroom

46:35yeah I know they I mean certainly

46:37somewhere there's there's no question

46:40um but you know like some were teaching

46:41you know

46:42it's I actually think it's a fairly

46:44novel thing that people who teach you

46:46know math and science are introducing

46:47communism into that uh which certainly I

46:50I don't think happened at that to that

46:52degree in that era but I don't know well

46:54it did so it did it I don't think it

46:56happened in math but it happened inside

46:57so it's happened it happened in biology

46:58right so like like senkoism right so the

47:01Soviets like Soviet Communists developed

47:03their own biology right

47:05um lysenchoism right which was literally

47:07a communist it was literally politically

47:08correct biology right um and if you if

47:10you if you trace the history of that

47:11it's pretty mind-blowing because

47:12basically like it turns out biology is

47:16not very egalitarian

47:17um yeah that was the sad thing about

47:19life and so the Soviets developed their

47:22own egalitarian biology which by the way

47:24was one of the big reasons for all for

47:26all the famines

47:27um but it was taught for sure in Soviet

47:29universities you know kind of as the way

47:31you do biology even though it like

47:32didn't actually work

47:34um and so I I don't know if they

47:35transmitted that all the way through

47:36into the American education system but

47:37like they for sure they had communist

47:39biology so so so so anyway so so in the

47:42middle the reason I'm pushing on this is

47:44because it's like you have okay so you

47:45have this concept of freedom of speech

47:47freedom of thought for you know for

47:48adult individuals

47:49um uh but then you have this this thing

47:51of like okay Public School teachers are

47:53not just individuals they're also like

47:54government employees yeah

47:56right and they're they're chartered by

47:58the government right to teach kids who

48:00are mandated by law to attend these

48:02schools yeah

48:03right and so when you have let's say

48:06hypothetically let's say hypothetically

48:07you have a large number of teachers

48:09um that are teaching kids either you

48:10know at that time communist material or

48:12you know today whatever you would think

48:13the equivalent of that is

48:15um right like

48:17you know does the First Amendment apply

48:18right like well so

48:22my grandfather was not fired for that

48:25though and and so there there's

48:28are you fired for being a communist or

48:31are you fired for teaching outside of

48:34you know the curriculum and like I I

48:38think it's reasonable to

48:40um fire somebody for something that they

48:42do but something that they think

48:46um or like you know do outside of their

48:49actual responsibility which is to teach

48:52like a certain thing

48:54um I think that's over the line and like

48:57McCarthyism would like McCarthy was way

48:59over the line on that uh

49:01you know look and and there were many

49:04people who were kind of who lost their

49:07jobs and got blacklisted and so forth

49:09who were

49:11um actively working with the Soviet

49:13Union as well which uh I think my

49:15grandfather might have liked to but he

49:16wasn't actually you know he did have a

49:19card he was a card-carrying member of

49:21the American Communist party and so I I

49:25do think like

49:27you you do want to be able to debate

49:29these kind of big important issues very

49:32freely uh but then look once you start

49:35undermining

49:36National Security or uh brainwashing

49:40kids or those kinds of things those I I

49:42would agree that's probably over the

49:43line all right I'll let your grandfather

49:44off the hook for today

49:47so so I will note one thing McCarthy's

49:50an interesting figure um because again

49:51he's one of these guys the movie didn't

49:52you know the movie kind of ends before

49:54McCarthy kicks in they kind of they kind

49:55of sized up McCarthy they mentioned him

49:57but they sidestep it but you know the

49:59story that gets told today of course

50:00McCarthy is you know is he was this

50:02moral is this moral monster right you

50:03know making all these unjustifiable

50:04claims and of course and again this goes

50:07back to what do we know today that we we

50:08didn't know you know kind of when that

50:09when that that that kind of impression

50:11got set

50:12um and so what we know today is actually

50:14quite interesting what we know today is

50:15McCarthy was like let's say at the very

50:17least an imperfect messenger and

50:19specifically um he made claims that he

50:20could not support

50:22um you know especially with his famous

50:23thing where I have a list of XYZ and he

50:25didn't actually have the list and then

50:26you know undoubtedly there were cases

50:28where people were smeared

50:30um you know and unfairly targeted and

50:31you know even other cases maybe as you

50:33say we're targeted for their beliefs but

50:34not for their actions

50:36um having said that what we know today

50:37following the Winona transcripts what we

50:39know today is McCarthy actually

50:40underestimated the level of Soviet

50:42penetration in the US government

50:44um just on the numbers he underestimated

50:46it and so his estimates you know topped

50:48out I believe in the 200s and it turned

50:50out you know the number was certainly

50:51higher than that it was at least in the

50:52400 you know sort of 400s you know

50:54meanings you know senior placed Soviet

50:56Assets in you know significant

50:57government positions uh including very

51:00senior positions by the way including

51:01into the white house uh under FDR

51:04um and then um and then um you know

51:06current estimates the current you know

51:08kind of History estimates are the the

51:09you know those numbers you know may well

51:11run into the thousands

51:12um you know kind of from that era and so

51:14so with what we know today there's this

51:16interesting kind of twist of the

51:17McCarthy story which is he actually

51:18understated the problem

51:20and something from my youth that that

51:23really

51:24um screwed me up is the rosenbergs

51:27turned out to actually be guilty

51:30um which by the way wasn't known

51:33and and yeah that uh execution was one

51:37of the most kind of horrifying things I

51:40I remember when I was a kid it was like

51:42well this is like one of the worst

51:43things the country ever did

51:46um now I don't know about like executing

51:48them in the death penalty and all that

51:50kind of thing that's a different issue

51:51but um they definitely gave uh the

51:56nuclear secrets to the Russians probably

51:58ended up you know leading to like some

52:00set of those uh Secrets being given led

52:04to unimaginable number of deaths uh by

52:08the just extension of the regime which

52:11you know I still have trouble with that

52:13today to be honest with you how to think

52:15about the rosenbergs well for people who

52:18don't know about this historically it

52:19was that Julius nether Rosenberg were

52:21husband and wife uh team they were

52:22accused of being communist basically

52:23conduits basically recruiters and and

52:26asset handlers for the Soviet Military

52:27Intelligence in the U.S during this

52:29period um they they became a uh of

52:32course it's called a casa lab uh among

52:34the American left of the of that era 40s

52:3650s 60s

52:37yeah yeah right it was like I don't know

52:40it was like you know the closest analogy

52:42you'd make today probably would be like

52:43a George Floyd or something like that

52:44right like just in the sense of like or

52:46Emmett Till or something it's like it

52:47was like they were like iconic figures

52:50um where it was such it was just it was

52:51seen so clearly by a lot of people in

52:54that era that they were being unfairly

52:55targeted and then and then they

52:56literally got executed

52:58um you know yeah I I think that's one of

53:01the last executions in you know at the

53:03federal level the federal level yeah

53:05yeah anyway of course there's a husband

53:07a wife right and so it's like okay even

53:08if the ho you know so you know who you

53:10know so so so so it was sort of assumed

53:12for many decades that that was a

53:13travesty

53:14um uh a friend of mine just sent me a

53:16Bob Dylan recorded a protest song called

53:18Julius and Ethel in the 70s right as

53:21late as the 70s where you know still

53:22talking about what Heroes they were

53:24um what we know today

53:26um is that they were guilty

53:28um

53:28what we know today is that specifically

53:31they were handling I think it was their

53:32nephew if I recall correctly a guy I

53:34believe his name is David Greenglass and

53:36he was a technician he was an engineer

53:39at the Manhattan Project

53:40um and he conveyed he conveyed get this

53:43guy on the job at the Manhattan Project

53:46conveyed to the rosenbergs who conveyed

53:48to the Soviets um the actual wiring

53:50instructions for the bomb

53:53um and that was one of the key like it

53:55was basically the Practical design to

53:57build the bomb and the reports

53:59afterwards were that that that basically

54:01was the turning point for the for the

54:02Russian bomb program

54:04um because right it was one thing to

54:05understand that you could split the atom

54:06and the theoretical physics of it it was

54:07another thing to actually do it

54:09mechanically and electrically

54:11um and to wire the thing up to actually

54:13detonate and and that was sort of that

54:14key moment

54:16um where they got the bomb and at least

54:17there are reports that the first you

54:19know literally the first uh Soviet uh

54:22atomic bombs were as they say uh wire

54:24for wire compatible

54:25um right with the uh you know with the

54:27Nagasaki with the nagasaka bomb

54:30um and so and we know this today from

54:32the Winona transcripts and so we know

54:33today they were guilty of sin they did

54:35it to your point the moral implications

54:37of this right and this goes back to this

54:39goes back to the what the apparent

54:41craziness of of uh Von Neumann you know

54:42advocating a first strike but which

54:44again I I don't support but

54:46um you know look had the Russians not

54:48gotten the bomb

54:50um you know would the would the Soviet

54:52Union have lasted

54:54um you know to 1989

54:56um would the Iron Curtain have descended

54:57across Eastern Europe right

54:59um would you know another 50 million

55:01people you know probably have died over

55:03the course of the Decades that followed

55:05in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe

55:06right uh because the Soviets had

55:08deterrence once they had the bomb of

55:09course they you know they alluded this

55:10at the end of the movie and I think a

55:12pretty good way uh with that scene in

55:14the restaurant

55:15um so so so so the rosenbergs were like

55:18like that was an actual pivotal moment

55:20um uh you know where basically these

55:22people decided that they were going to

55:24you know determine the future of you

55:26know the rest of the century

55:27um you know with with with the suffering

55:29tens of millions of people in their

55:31hands and they made the wrong choice

55:33um we know that now um so

55:38anyway I am I am strongly I'm strongly

55:41I'm strongly Pro the execution of the

55:42rosenbergs

55:44um yeah yeah

55:50and thrown in jail for a long long time

55:53but yes one more time yeah yeah anyway

55:56so so this all you know I just want to

55:58come back real quick to this this China

55:59thing because I I think this is you know

56:01this this this the reason I'm so

56:03fascinated with this whole period is

56:04because it's a significant foreshadowing

56:06of what's happening right now right

56:07because

56:09you know we I mean look if people know

56:11like you know China has been ruled by

56:13the Chinese Communist party you know

56:14basically you know now for since the

56:161950s

56:17um you know the Chinese Communist party

56:19is responsible for you know a level of

56:20moral horror certainly on par with you

56:22know a Stalin oh yeah under Mal yes yes

56:25under under Mile right and then in the

56:27last you know basically in the last 20

56:29years you know starting in the early

56:302000s you know there was like a 20-year

56:32run between kind of call it 2000 and

56:342020 or so you know or into the into the

56:37late 20 you know the late teens this run

56:39where it sort of became the morally

56:41correct thing to do to basically be

56:42protein pro pro China which is fine by

56:46the way well and and things have ping

56:48really changed

56:50um

56:51the workings of the economy dramatically

56:56during that period so it wasn't it the

56:59government uh remained intact

57:02um but the way he governed

57:06um

57:07sir I mean well it created certainly an

57:09economic Miracle of the likes that you

57:11know

57:13um you know maybe we've never ever seen

57:15before he he pulled many people out of

57:17poverty so we have to give some credit

57:20where credit is due it wasn't like that

57:22was nothing well it wasn't nothing but

57:24there's another way to look at it which

57:25is he took the boot off the throat a

57:27little bit

57:28yeah right but the boots still on this

57:32no I I do want to get into this

57:34concentration of power issue because I

57:36think that's the the that is really the

57:38key problem with Communism I'm for sure

57:40right well so the historical analogy

57:42just the historical analogy and we could

57:43talk about that the historical analogy I

57:45just wanted to get to is your point of

57:46dang which is is is well made but like

57:49what Deng did in China is actually quite

57:50similar to what Landon did in the 1920s

57:52in Russia it did with this thing called

57:53the people should read about the New

57:55Economic program it's been lost to

57:56history it's a very fascinating moment

57:58um where there were a lot of American

58:00businessmen a lot of American companies

58:01who basically went to Russia 19 in the

58:031920s um and and did a lot for them and

58:05also made a lot of money in the process

58:07um and I I think basically the way the

58:09history is getting written here is

58:10basically the with the new economic

58:11program with with Russia in the 1920s is

58:13going to be kind of analogous to that

58:15you know kind of dang era uh in China

58:17right although the dang era lasted much

58:19longer well sort of 10 years 20 years

58:22yeah so well so the nap was give or take

58:24a decade the the the the China thing

58:26probably you'd probably say 30 years

58:28total

58:29um so yeah maybe three or three times as

58:30long but yeah yeah okay fair enough but

58:32you had American Business people

58:36um I'll just name one as an example he's

58:38his name's kind of lost history now but

58:39he was a key figure in the 20th century

58:40named Herman Hammer um who

58:43and there's this great he ran a big Oil

58:45Company in the in the in the in the in

58:46the in the 1900s and was very uh very

58:48associated with uh with the Russians

58:50there's two great moments in his

58:51Wikipedia biography um one is it was

58:53always very confusing how somebody how

58:55parents had actually named their kid Arm

58:56and Hammer right which is like literally

58:58Arm and Hammer right

59:00um and um which was like a communist

59:02slogan at the time and and it turns out

59:06in a baking soda right ultimately they

59:08came out of that period also but um uh

59:10it turns out actually the Wikipedia

59:12entry sort of concedes that in fact his

59:13parents were named him for the the sort

59:15of socialist slogan

59:17um but also there's this great moment

59:18where as a young business person working

59:20for his father in the family company at

59:21the time uh there's this great thing in

59:23Wikipedia where he went on vacation to

59:25the Soviet Union in 1921 and like came

59:27back in like 1930.

59:29and it kind of just glosses over the

59:31fact that he was there for a decade yeah

59:33yeah yeah and then for many many decades

59:36of followers he was for a long time and

59:38it was there it was during this new

59:40economic program era right where he was

59:42so what he was doing was he was doing

59:43business right what he was doing was he

59:45was he was he got deeply entangled with

59:46the Russian system and did a lot of

59:47business and made a lot of money um

59:49which which is at the time by the way he

59:50was allowed to do at the time the

59:51American government was encouraging that

59:53um so but but in his later decades he

59:55became a staunchy advocate for nuclear

59:57disarmament and a staunch advocate for

59:59diplomatic relations with the Soviet

01:00:00Union and so there was always this

01:00:02question hanging over him which has had

01:00:04he been compromised by the Soviets right

01:00:05had he had he basically been turned and

01:00:07become a Soviet asset you know kind of

01:00:09from his time from his time when he was

01:00:10there anyway like the reason I go

01:00:13through this is there are a lot of

01:00:14American Business people who have been

01:00:16enthusiastically in bed with the Chinese

01:00:18system you know country system Communist

01:00:21party you know for the last 10 years 20

01:00:23years 30 years right that basically and

01:00:25again like they were like authorized to

01:00:27do it they were permitted to do it the

01:00:29American government was often

01:00:30encouraging it right um and it was

01:00:31considered to be a good thing to do you

01:00:33know but there are a lot of American

01:00:34CEOs you know a lot of American

01:00:35companies have gotten very entangled

01:00:37over there and my point is like the

01:00:39moral valence on China you can feel it

01:00:41in DC the moral valence on China is

01:00:43Shifting in real time right now on both

01:00:46sides of the political aisle in

01:00:47Washington in the same way the moral

01:00:49valence on the Soviet Union shift in the

01:00:50late 1940s early 1950s and I think there

01:00:53I think there are people who have been

01:00:54in bed with a you know a system where I

01:00:58I think they're you know they're gonna

01:00:59if they haven't already they're gonna

01:01:00wake up one morning in the next you know

01:01:01a few years and be like oh my god what

01:01:02have I done

01:01:04um and there's and I think there's

01:01:05actually and I'm not saying I'm in favor

01:01:06of it I just I'm trying to be kind of

01:01:08clinical about it I think there's a

01:01:09pretty good chance uh that we're going

01:01:11to enter a face here in which there's

01:01:12going to be a tremendous amount of let's

01:01:14say second looks

01:01:15um at activities that have that people

01:01:17thought were okay that are going to get

01:01:18judged you know historically is maybe

01:01:20not being okay although it's the the

01:01:22disentanglement

01:01:24will be much more complex this time in

01:01:27the sense that um

01:01:28you know the the Chinese supply chain to

01:01:31the United States is

01:01:33dramatically more robust than any

01:01:35economic connection that we ever have

01:01:37with the Soviet Union uh and yeah it's

01:01:42it's uh the who's who of uh American

01:01:45large companies

01:01:47um doing you know massive business in

01:01:49China and using China as a supply chain

01:01:52and and so that'll be interesting

01:01:56um

01:01:57so Let's uh actually why don't we kind

01:02:01of get into kind of more like

01:02:02fundamental Theory we have a question

01:02:04from uh Nicola

01:02:07Maharaja uh which is um what do you

01:02:11believe to be the biggest flaw in

01:02:12communism and why do you believe people

01:02:15fail to see it and let me give you let

01:02:17me give it like just like a quick simple

01:02:20treatment but I think that is really

01:02:22important because it's so obvious yet

01:02:24people miss it which is you know

01:02:27communism is is sold as power to the

01:02:30people

01:02:31um and many things many things many such

01:02:33cases have been solved as power to the

01:02:35people over the centuries

01:02:37um but the truth is and uh this is that

01:02:41you know the people never actually rule

01:02:44themselves

01:02:45um in the whole history of humanity uh

01:02:47that that that's not actually a

01:02:49construct that's stable it's more akin

01:02:51to Anarchy than any kind of stable

01:02:53system and so

01:02:54what communism really is in effect is

01:02:57it's not a distribution of power to

01:02:59everybody it's a massive concentration

01:03:02of power uh to the small number of

01:03:05people who run the government because

01:03:06you remove

01:03:07100 of the power from the private sector

01:03:10and place it with the government and

01:03:14so the couple of problems with that one

01:03:16is you know it is uh you know it's the

01:03:19ring of power um from The Lord of the

01:03:21Rings it's the thing that uh is you know

01:03:24just is

01:03:25eminently uh corrupting uh but as

01:03:29important um you know all systems have

01:03:32incentives

01:03:34and by doing that then there's two kinds

01:03:37of incentives in this world carrot and

01:03:39stick uh but by concentrating power 100

01:03:42in the government you remove and

01:03:45following the Communist philosophy you

01:03:47remove the carrot from society there is

01:03:51no incentive to work hard to earn more

01:03:54money to have a better life for your

01:03:56family that's gone and so you're left

01:03:59with only the stick and basically in the

01:04:03history of Communism you know over the

01:04:05in the 20th century it just meant mass

01:04:08murder because that's literally the only

01:04:10way you can affect anything as the as

01:04:13the entity with all this power because

01:04:14you've given up the other incentive and

01:04:17you know and look I think people fail to

01:04:19see that because

01:04:22the sale is part of the people and you

01:04:25know particularly

01:04:26intellectuals and and this kind of goes

01:04:28back to the genetic thing look if you if

01:04:30you're born gifted

01:04:33um in any way athletically

01:04:34intellectually artistically you do

01:04:37there is a sense of guilt and that there

01:04:39are a lot of people who weren't born

01:04:40like that

01:04:42um and communism has that like great

01:04:44appeal to make things Fair

01:04:47um but of course it doesn't make things

01:04:48Fair like the actual mechanics guarantee

01:04:51that it makes things the opposite of

01:04:53fair yeah David David Milton Friedman's

01:04:55son David Friedman had this great

01:04:56formulation he said there are three

01:04:57fundamental motivations for somebody to

01:04:59do something for somebody else

01:05:01um love money or Force yes

01:05:05right and so like very accurate right so

01:05:09I do things for my family because I love

01:05:11them right I do things for other people

01:05:12because of money

01:05:14um people I haven't met right uh for

01:05:16money and then What communists say is

01:05:17you should love everybody and you should

01:05:18do everything for everybody out of you

01:05:20know Universal love but what ends up

01:05:22happening of course is people don't do

01:05:24that it's not natural human motivation

01:05:26for people to work you know work their

01:05:27butts off for people they've never met

01:05:30um and so when you remove money you're

01:05:32left with love and force and love it

01:05:34does not scale

01:05:37Force four scales um yeah there's a

01:05:40great there's another great fictional

01:05:42portrayal of how this goes wrong

01:05:43um the the the the the FX show The

01:05:46Americans was I thought excellent yeah

01:05:47yeah written by uh CI it was created by

01:05:50a CIA officer who had actually fought

01:05:52the Russians in the Cold War and so he

01:05:53he really kind of knew what what was

01:05:54what

01:05:55um and there's this great uh plot later

01:05:58on I'm gonna spoil it but it's Central

01:05:59to this this discussion it's a great

01:06:01plot later on they have a KGB officer

01:06:03you know kind of uh character who goes

01:06:05back to gets recalled back to Moscow

01:06:07they have a season where he basically is

01:06:08working he's working for the KGB officer

01:06:10but he's working in Moscow his father is

01:06:12like a senior party official um and so

01:06:14he gets put on this basically detective

01:06:16assignment

01:06:18um it turns out basically the good food

01:06:20is being stolen out of all the

01:06:21supermarkets in Moscow uh in the 1980s

01:06:24right like all the good stuff is being

01:06:25diverted somewhere stolen somewhere um

01:06:27and he gets assigned to basically track

01:06:29down who's stealing it and the the way

01:06:31they set it up is it's gonna you know in

01:06:32any other TV show would be like there's

01:06:33some organized crime ring right there's

01:06:35some criminal you know he's going to

01:06:37find some criminal running some

01:06:38conspiracy that's going to have you know

01:06:39been stealing all the food and they go

01:06:41through the whole season like that and

01:06:42it turns out at the end

01:06:43it's just the system it's just the good

01:06:45food is being taken by the senior party

01:06:46officials I'm curious

01:06:48who run everything yeah he finally

01:06:51realizes this and he's like there's

01:06:53literally nothing to do these are the

01:06:54people who run the country they're

01:06:55taking all the good food fu

01:06:57they get it and you don't right um and

01:07:00of course right exactly right the people

01:07:02in charge the people with the power to

01:07:04administer Force use it on their behalf

01:07:06and the people who don't have the power

01:07:07to administer the force you know

01:07:08basically just get like completely

01:07:10screwed um so it's just it's as cut and

01:07:13dried as it could possibly get but been

01:07:14to your point like you you have to put

01:07:17it this way if you think your way into

01:07:19it you have to think your way out of it

01:07:20right yeah yes

01:07:22yes

01:07:24very well put

01:07:26um what it turns into what it turns into

01:07:28is just basically rule by the resentful

01:07:29right so what what it turns into is just

01:07:31like the worst people uh end up in

01:07:33charge and they end up basically ruling

01:07:35through resentment um and uh and and

01:07:37bitterness and envy and then just

01:07:38everything just goes to but I I

01:07:40think that you know the you know one

01:07:43problem with it is even in the case that

01:07:47um

01:07:47it was a good person right it wasn't you

01:07:52know okay it wasn't chochesco or Pol Pot

01:07:54or Stalin or Mao or like you know

01:07:57there's a pattern here everybody seems

01:07:58to be a bad person who runs a communist

01:08:00country

01:08:01um the the problem of the economic

01:08:04system removing all the incentives kind

01:08:06of leads you to that conclusion anyway

01:08:08you know even if they're great people

01:08:10even if they're you know full of love in

01:08:12their heart

01:08:13um it's it's gonna end badly

01:08:15um eventually uh which is why it's so

01:08:18dangerous and it's amazing that you know

01:08:21the ideas keep coming back

01:08:23um so so I have a this is a interesting

01:08:26question interesting question for me uh

01:08:28it's from Diamond hands I don't know

01:08:31that that sounds like a made-up name but

01:08:33it could be a real name no no that's the

01:08:35uh it's one of your one of your retards

01:08:36oh it's one of the retards though

01:08:38awesome

01:08:39I can't believe you had me say that on a

01:08:41podcast again after I got blasted the

01:08:43last time but a meaning that not

01:08:46uh person or a person with

01:08:49special needs but a part of the

01:08:51Revolution which is an uh anagram on

01:08:54Traders which are the people who led to

01:08:58the uh GameStop

01:09:00um amazing stock climb so that's what we

01:09:02meant uh but yes great so Diamond hands

01:09:06it says do you consider Hiroshima and

01:09:08Nagasaki a genocide

01:09:11um and maybe I'll start uh to help

01:09:14because this is a troubling question

01:09:17um

01:09:19so I I think

01:09:22you know a genocide is a very strong

01:09:25word

01:09:26um and you know genocide is meant

01:09:30you know kind of literally as a as an

01:09:32ethnic cleansing of a kind and

01:09:35I think it's very very hard to

01:09:39get to the idea that the intent of here

01:09:43are the bombings of Hiroshima Nagasaki

01:09:45were ethnic cleansing like that's

01:09:47that's very difficult to come by

01:09:50um and then

01:09:51now bombing you know nuking

01:09:54um you know what ended up being 200 000

01:09:57civilians uh you know is like that

01:10:00that's very like I can't get behind that

01:10:02I think that's uh that's hard to swallow

01:10:04now to Mark's point though

01:10:07um that was a little bit the nature of

01:10:08this war

01:10:09um that civilians were

01:10:11um fair game

01:10:13and the rationale for it

01:10:16um was that and this is something I've

01:10:19studied a lot and then I've spent a lot

01:10:20of time in Japan so

01:10:23I I I think it was like not illegitimate

01:10:27fear which is the Japanese would never

01:10:29stop fighting

01:10:31um you know without something of this

01:10:33magnitude and that you know from a

01:10:36cultural standpoint

01:10:38um

01:10:39is actually a pretty rational position

01:10:41in the sense that you know Japan of that

01:10:45era was coming with very very heavily

01:10:47influenced by the culture of the Samurai

01:10:50and the samurai culture was such that

01:10:52that level of sacrifice uh even if you

01:10:55were losing the war even you know to go

01:10:57all the way to the end was very very

01:11:00built into the culture and you know like

01:11:01we saw that with the Kamikaze Fighters

01:11:03and and uh and so forth and you know and

01:11:06they were not only did they have that

01:11:08culture but they were also like they

01:11:10were very Fired Up by actually

01:11:11interestingly defeating the Russians in

01:11:13the early 19th century

01:11:15um or in the early 1900s I should say uh

01:11:18which was their first kind of Victory

01:11:20kind of coming out of the East and going

01:11:22into the West so they were they were

01:11:24fired up they were culturally prone to

01:11:26fight to the death

01:11:29um and so that that was a real thing and

01:11:31then you know when you talk to people in

01:11:33America about the bombing of Hiroshima

01:11:35Nagasaki

01:11:36um it's like one of the most morally

01:11:39horrifying things that we've ever done

01:11:41and totally unjustifiable and look you

01:11:44can understand that because it was 1945

01:11:48it felt like the war was close to over

01:11:49the Germans were kind of done and the

01:11:53end it was civilian so like all those

01:11:55things would make you think that when

01:11:56you talk to people in Japan

01:11:58they're less

01:12:00angry about it than we are I would say

01:12:02and and part of the reason is they

01:12:05really understood the Japan of that era

01:12:07and the things they were doing

01:12:09um you know and like leading up to the

01:12:11bombing of Pearl Harbor but like where

01:12:13they where they were willing to take it

01:12:14themselves

01:12:16um if you that or or at least that you

01:12:19know like I shouldn't speak for the

01:12:20entire uh Japanese people but for the

01:12:23Japanese people that I spoken to in

01:12:26in Japan

01:12:28um they do recognize the atrocities the

01:12:31other way and uh

01:12:33and what they were willing like what

01:12:35they did and what they would have done

01:12:37um you know had they been able to so I I

01:12:40think it's uh

01:12:42you know that decision where as

01:12:46you know maybe probably 10 years ago I

01:12:48would have said it was the most horrible

01:12:49thing we ever did

01:12:51um I I do understand the rationale I

01:12:53still don't I still kind of I think I'm

01:12:55personally against it but um I

01:12:58understand a lot better why that

01:13:01decision was made yeah let me add a few

01:13:02things so one is um there were two

01:13:04arguments at that time for doing it

01:13:07um which I think they alluded to in the

01:13:08movie A little bit um so one was saving

01:13:11the lives of American soldiers right so

01:13:12have the Japanese

01:13:15in the war and which means you know that

01:13:18um West you know Allied soldiers we're

01:13:19not going to have to um you know

01:13:20continue to die in a in that conflict

01:13:22there was another argument at the time

01:13:25and this I would say this this one pains

01:13:27me to make and I'll describe why in a

01:13:28little bit but um you know the other

01:13:29argument was those bombings may have

01:13:32saved Japanese lives on net

01:13:34right so right had the had the war

01:13:37continued it's certainly possible that

01:13:39more Japanese would have died in the

01:13:41continuation of the war than in the

01:13:42ending of the war with 200 000 people

01:13:44dead in those bombings well particularly

01:13:45because they were willing to fight to

01:13:47the end they willing to fight to the end

01:13:49so so so there's a utilitarian argument

01:13:52that basically it was you that actually

01:13:54both America and Japan were better off

01:13:55that those bombs were dropped now let me

01:13:58say the problem I have with that the

01:13:59problem I have with that is now we're

01:14:00we're engaged in utilitarian ethics

01:14:01which is the ethics of that era and how

01:14:04that how that decision was made and the

01:14:06the problem with utilitarian ethics is

01:14:08precisely this problem which is okay now

01:14:11you're sitting here on Mount Olympus

01:14:12right either at that time or today and

01:14:16you're you're basically saying 200 000

01:14:18people have to die for the greater good

01:14:20right and like by the what I've my

01:14:24reading of history is by the time you're

01:14:26by the time you're making that call

01:14:28like boy have you worked yourself into a

01:14:31position that is really bad right like

01:14:35that should not be the decision right

01:14:37that that that should not be the way it

01:14:40like

01:14:41utilitarian there's something

01:14:43there's something profoundly logical

01:14:45about utilitarianism as an ethos and

01:14:46there's something profoundly evil about

01:14:47it right which is it sort of it gets you

01:14:49into this situation where you can say

01:14:51things like 200 000 people need to die

01:14:53for the greater good and so my well and

01:14:54it gets into kind of the the most danger

01:14:56one of the most dangerous things about

01:14:58communism which is the ends justify the

01:15:00means right like oh we're going to get

01:15:02to this good place so we can just murder

01:15:04people drop nukes do whatever the

01:15:07we want because you can justify anything

01:15:08by that logic yes yeah and so my my

01:15:11conclusion from cases like this in

01:15:13history my conclusion is like you don't

01:15:15want it if you can possibly avoid it you

01:15:17actually don't want to go down the road

01:15:18utilitarian ethics and I bring this up

01:15:20because utilitarianism has become very

01:15:22trendy among our current intellectual

01:15:24Elite who has gotten very fond of

01:15:26sitting on Mount Olympus and making

01:15:28these calls

01:15:29um and deciding you know which eggs you

01:15:31break to make an omelet and

01:15:32like I think that's a bad Road

01:15:36um like I I I think that's a that's

01:15:37that's a bad ethical and moral world

01:15:40view to get wrapped up in well

01:15:41particularly I mean you know the the lab

01:15:43Lake was a great example of that the you

01:15:45know people absolutely knew his lab Lake

01:15:48the scientists absolutely knew as a lab

01:15:51Lake but for the greater good

01:15:53um we're going to say it was not

01:15:56um and by the way

01:15:59um you know in doing that gain a

01:16:01function research like like if it had

01:16:03come out immediately that this pandemic

01:16:05that's killed so many millions worldwide

01:16:08was a lab Lake as a result of research

01:16:11that we ourselves funded

01:16:13maybe that would have created a movement

01:16:15to stop funding the research which by

01:16:17the way we're still funding in many

01:16:19areas and could cause the next pandemic

01:16:22and that whole cover-up for the greater

01:16:24good is a kind of a very murderous idea

01:16:28yep exactly so yeah so

01:16:31three cheers against utilitarianism

01:16:33let's figure out let's figure out let's

01:16:36figure out how to order Society in a way

01:16:38where people are not sitting on Mount

01:16:40Olympus making calls of this nature I I

01:16:42think that would be where I come out of

01:16:43it absolutely so then here's a question

01:16:47from McCoy

01:16:48how different is the Los Alamos project

01:16:51of John Von Neumann doesn't accept the

01:16:54invite from Oppenheimer they mentioned

01:16:56this briefly in the movie there were two

01:16:58paths to detonate uh to actually set off

01:17:00an atomic bomb oh right right and they

01:17:03figured out that Heisenberg had gone the

01:17:05wrong way right yeah well they were uh

01:17:07that was part of it but then also on the

01:17:09Manhattan Project itself

01:17:11um there was there was I think what was

01:17:12called the gun method I think was

01:17:13references which is like which was the

01:17:15main thing they were researching the

01:17:16beginning which was to kind of forget

01:17:17what it was like literally you know

01:17:18shooting in some form

01:17:20um uh to try to generate the Chain

01:17:22Reaction

01:17:23um but then there was this other method

01:17:24called the implosion method

01:17:26um and the the the one method got the

01:17:28bulk of the resources and then didn't

01:17:30work but they had this there was a brief

01:17:32moment in there there was a brief moment

01:17:34where the the one of the scientists

01:17:36whose real name was Seth needlemeyer um

01:17:37uh says oh there's this other method I

01:17:40think we might want to look at and up a

01:17:41number is like fine go ahead and anyway

01:17:42it turns out like that other it was like

01:17:44the backup method for setting off the

01:17:46nuke the implosion method is the one

01:17:47that worked um there's a um there's a

01:17:49there is a TV series there's a TV series

01:17:52that nobody saw

01:17:54um that in a different era would have

01:17:55won every award you could win called

01:17:57Manhattan

01:17:58um that was a few years back that they

01:18:00only made two seasons of but um it uh

01:18:03the setting it's it's a recreation of

01:18:04the Met it's a TV series about the

01:18:06Manhattan Project and uh the lead

01:18:08character and it's it's the story of

01:18:10that second method it's a story of the

01:18:11the implosion method and of the of the

01:18:13sort of renegade effort inside the

01:18:14Manhattan Project to have this backup

01:18:16method

01:18:17um and it's it's a show so they have a

01:18:18lot more time to kind of deal with what

01:18:20what that all was and so for people who

01:18:22are interested in that that topic uh

01:18:24that show actually is actually very good

01:18:26interesting all right

01:18:28um

01:18:28foreign

01:18:30but back to Oppenheimer backed up and

01:18:32I'm a genius to give up and Oppenheimer

01:18:34credit they had sort of plan a but he

01:18:36had he had a loud Plan B to continue to

01:18:38run

01:18:40um right he didn't he he did not feel

01:18:42the need to reconcile the strategy uh he

01:18:45was comfortable having multiple

01:18:46approaches um to have multiple shots on

01:18:47goal yeah yeah which which which was

01:18:50very prescient and turned out to be the

01:18:51thing that really I mean without that

01:18:52they would not have succeeded and um we

01:18:55would be living in a different world

01:18:56today um so um you know that took credit

01:18:58to another another example of his

01:19:00leadership skills well and then the guy

01:19:02see recruited like the other thing

01:19:03that's so amazing is and it's probably

01:19:06the highest concentration of talent

01:19:09intellectual Talent

01:19:12um for sure in the history of the

01:19:13country maybe the history of the world

01:19:14uh including

01:19:17recruiting John Von Neumann

01:19:20um you know as well as you know every

01:19:22great physicist

01:19:23um who wasn't a Nazi by the way they

01:19:26alluded this in the movie also um uh

01:19:28many of those Minds many of the

01:19:29brightest Minds with to your point many

01:19:32of those brightest minds are what they

01:19:33call the Martians

01:19:34um which was the term for basically it

01:19:36was the Jewish immigrants from The

01:19:37Budapest uh area yeah yeah yeah

01:19:40and so and and actually a lot of them

01:19:41were like from the same it was like I

01:19:43forget there was like there were a small

01:19:44number of high schools that they all

01:19:45went to in Budapest yeah

01:19:47um so there was this like there was this

01:19:50thing that was like was was from that

01:19:52area yeah yeah it's that same thing so

01:19:55exactly that same area generated the

01:19:57American Semiconductor industry with the

01:19:58so-called so-called Hungarian Mafia at

01:20:00Intel uh switch like Andy Rove and Les

01:20:01vides and a whole bunch of those guys um

01:20:03and so there there was a there is this

01:20:06kind of giant mystery at the heart of

01:20:08both the atomic project and at the the

01:20:10semiconductor industry which is why did

01:20:13that specific place and time generate

01:20:15this set of just like incredible super

01:20:17Geniuses

01:20:19um and uh nobody's ever quite been able

01:20:21to answer that well you know actually

01:20:23brings up this interesting thing that

01:20:25that also was touched on the movie which

01:20:27is

01:20:28um you know World War II like

01:20:30many more Wars than I think are given

01:20:33credit for was was a race war

01:20:36um and you know very specifically race

01:20:38war and one of the things that costs

01:20:41Hitler the war was

01:20:43um

01:20:43you know his hatred for the race that

01:20:47ended up inventing most of this stuff uh

01:20:50the Jews and you know and that turned

01:20:53the whole thing so it was an incredible

01:20:55ironic twist

01:20:57um in that the master race was literally

01:20:59defeated by the race that they were

01:21:00trying to exterminate

01:21:03um but it does bring up this like

01:21:05interesting you know issue of war and

01:21:08humans which is

01:21:10you know historically

01:21:13you know it's almost always race

01:21:18um you know it like it is very very

01:21:19often race that causes these just major

01:21:22conflicts

01:21:23um you know including potentially right

01:21:25now Russian Ukraine uh you know there's

01:21:28a race element there and so

01:21:32why do I bring this up I I bring it up

01:21:35because you know this whole idea that we

01:21:37have uh in America these days that we

01:21:39should divide ourselves by race

01:21:42um seems just exceptionally dangerous in

01:21:44that you know like maybe it doesn't end

01:21:46in genocide um but the chance of it

01:21:48ending in something peaceful and good

01:21:50and unifying is just seemed very remote

01:21:52to me yeah so I had this moment I've

01:21:54told Ben the story I had this moment

01:21:56where so

01:21:57um you know Russia invades Ukraine you

01:21:59know it leads to kind of you know people

01:22:00are obviously shocked and alarmed

01:22:03in the U.S and um inside this moment

01:22:05it's a few weeks after the invasion at

01:22:07this moment I bought this new place in

01:22:08La and there's this Cafe it's kind of

01:22:10this kind of hippie crunchy LA cafe down

01:22:12the street right

01:22:13um uh which is kind of you know super uh

01:22:16you know kind of lash thing um been

01:22:18there since the 60s or something and so

01:22:20I got on the street I go to the cafe and

01:22:21I go in and on the host station of the

01:22:24cafe in the front there's this big sign

01:22:26red white and blue with you know stars

01:22:28and everything and it says no Russian

01:22:31food or drink served here

01:22:33hmm

01:22:36right and yeah

01:22:39like how did we instantly get to that

01:22:42yeah

01:22:44right like really like really race war

01:22:49really right and so yeah no look like it

01:22:51it is it is I guess my interpretation my

01:22:54interpretation more generally my

01:22:56interpretation I think this this became

01:22:57true in World War II for sure and was

01:22:58also true in World War One Like These

01:23:01Wars wars can start on issues of like

01:23:04complex geopolitics or like ideological

01:23:06differences or like commercial whatever

01:23:08trade conflicts or whatever border

01:23:10conflicts but like they start one way

01:23:12they end another way and they they do

01:23:14seem to end in a race war and that that

01:23:16does not seem to be out of our system no

01:23:18yeah well I mean like we're trying to

01:23:20regenerate it with you know like

01:23:22everything we have um you know and it's

01:23:25uh

01:23:27scary I would just say well there have

01:23:29been all these you probably have also

01:23:30seen there have been all these cases

01:23:30there are like classical music

01:23:31competitions where they won't let

01:23:32Russian performers participate there are

01:23:35like literature prizes where like

01:23:36Russian authors you know are not

01:23:37eligible anymore like the the the the

01:23:38impulse among our most enlightened and

01:23:41intellectually sophisticated people to

01:23:43instantly demonize an entire race is

01:23:46yeah it is pretty lit

01:23:48well it's lit and it you know like it

01:23:51and it gets into like the darkest

01:23:54part of human nature and what's been

01:23:58like just a complete shock to me is the

01:24:01intellectual movement in the United

01:24:02States

01:24:04to racialize

01:24:07everything

01:24:09um

01:24:10which is by the way very bad for me

01:24:13personally

01:24:14um if there if there's a race war I I'm

01:24:17in a lot of trouble

01:24:18um and

01:24:20you know

01:24:22the fact that people think that's a good

01:24:25idea is just so unusual to me that that

01:24:28it would like we'd go to that place and

01:24:30say okay you know we're gonna have to

01:24:32decide things think things are going to

01:24:34have to be decided on race and you've

01:24:36already seen it like the massive

01:24:39increased Heights hostility internally

01:24:41of Americans against Americans almost

01:24:44entirely on a racial basis uh is uh

01:24:47quite alarming Remy Moore asks up in

01:24:51heimerson's story involves themes of

01:24:53ambition moral dilemmas and personal

01:24:56sacrifices how can we draw parallels

01:24:58between these themes

01:25:00and the responsibilities that come with

01:25:03developing and deploying AI Technologies

01:25:05in our society today would you like to

01:25:07start so I would say

01:25:09um you know there are certainly some

01:25:11similarities and differences uh

01:25:14um but let me start with one of the

01:25:15similarities so

01:25:19you know it was you know Mark and I

01:25:21actually had a very interesting

01:25:22conversation with an entrepreneur and uh

01:25:24you know a very kind of accomplished

01:25:27um and important AI researcher

01:25:30um

01:25:31the other week and one of the things

01:25:33that he said that I I found like super

01:25:36interesting is

01:25:37in electing at AI

01:25:39um one of the things that was very

01:25:41confusing for them early you know with

01:25:43these large particularly with a very

01:25:44large models so when the models were

01:25:46smaller this actually wasn't as big a

01:25:48deal

01:25:49um is that it's very hard to analyze

01:25:52them the way you would analyze like a

01:25:54normal computer program because they're

01:25:57just too big you know like you've got

01:26:00a billion or 70 billion or 230 billion

01:26:04parameters or nodes in the system uh you

01:26:09know how do you Analyze That and his

01:26:11comment was you know like we realized we

01:26:14need to look at it more like physics

01:26:16um and kind of look at it from a systems

01:26:19standpoint I mean the way you might look

01:26:22at you know things like you know

01:26:24temperature or velocity or this or that

01:26:26you know in a system that you'd be

01:26:28observing from a physics point of view

01:26:30and that's actually where there's a term

01:26:32in these large language models

01:26:33temperature which kind of determines the

01:26:36level of Randomness which they took from

01:26:38you know the physics analogy from this

01:26:41this kind of idea

01:26:44and so you know when you think about the

01:26:46responsibilities of AI I think

01:26:49um you know the the model is actually

01:26:52more analogous to physics

01:26:55like literally the study of physics

01:26:56itself then the weapon

01:26:59um and you know when you think about the

01:27:02responsibilities there's I think you

01:27:05have to separate

01:27:07uh the science of it the technology of

01:27:10it

01:27:11um math you know these these building

01:27:13blocks uh very powerful and important

01:27:16tools for

01:27:18um

01:27:18really solving many of the world's

01:27:21problems uh from

01:27:24an application uh you know in this case

01:27:27an operator hybrid's case a nuclear bomb

01:27:31um but in the case of AI like there's

01:27:33many many applications uh just like

01:27:35there's many applications of physics and

01:27:37I think that if you went in like many

01:27:40are advocating and say okay we're going

01:27:41to regulate physics

01:27:45um the implications of that would be

01:27:48you know very weird and also bad and I

01:27:50think that's uh

01:27:52that's very kind of dangerous point that

01:27:54we we find ourselves in currently yeah

01:27:56so the the case I'll make and I'll make

01:27:58the strong case for it case I'll make is

01:28:00that it is it and I think the movie

01:28:02actually shows this in the the history

01:28:03of the era it certainly shows this also

01:28:06um and the topics we talked about about

01:28:07uh all the Communist scientists and so

01:28:09forth and the the Soviet spies um the

01:28:12presumption that the people who invent

01:28:14the science and invent the technology

01:28:16um are moral authorities

01:28:18um for how that Science and Technology

01:28:20will get used

01:28:21um does not hold up well

01:28:25um and let me let me elaborate on that

01:28:27we've talked about some of it but I'm

01:28:28going to elaborate on that a little bit

01:28:29so um so first of all like you know like

01:28:32I said I I think the the A-bomb

01:28:34prevented World War III so all of the

01:28:36hand ringing including oppenheimer's

01:28:37famous hand ringing and the Oval Office

01:28:39with German which happened which was

01:28:41true

01:28:42um like basically it was a lot of

01:28:44handwringing over what I think a project

01:28:46that saved like 200 million lives so

01:28:48first of all like it was like one of the

01:28:50like in the fullness of time probably

01:28:52one of the greatest things for peace

01:28:53that that ever happened and a lot of

01:28:55that a lot of those scientists like did

01:28:56not did not see that

01:28:58um and they had very strong strong

01:28:59opinions otherwise um number one

01:29:01um uh number two you know as we've

01:29:03discussed like a lot of them took

01:29:05matters into their own hands and through

01:29:07a combination of you know a combination

01:29:09of of internal agitation and and then

01:29:12some cases direct action

01:29:14um you know they made decisions

01:29:15including some of them to literally hand

01:29:17over the secrets of the bomb to the

01:29:19Russians

01:29:20um you know they which I like like we

01:29:22discussed I think led to the survival of

01:29:23the Soviet Union and the Iron Curtain

01:29:25and and all the all the deaths in

01:29:27Eastern Europe that followed in Russia

01:29:28uh you know for decades that followed

01:29:30like they they they made you know those

01:29:32those spies I think made horrible

01:29:33decision horrible moral decisions and

01:29:35they were spying most of those spies

01:29:36were spying for Morality In Their in

01:29:37their their views they weren't smart for

01:29:38money they were spying because they

01:29:39thought it was morally correct for the

01:29:41Russians to have the bomb

01:29:43um and then there's another Twist on the

01:29:45whole nuclear thing which we haven't

01:29:46even touched on yet which is nuclear

01:29:47power

01:29:48um and um you know there there's the

01:29:51civilian application of nuclear

01:29:52technology which is nuclear power and

01:29:54you know sitting here today you know the

01:29:55world is you know generally very you

01:29:57know kind of upset and and um and uh

01:30:00scared of of the prospect of of uh

01:30:02continued carbon emissions and climate

01:30:03change and so forth and we we have had

01:30:05the Silver Bullet technology for zero

01:30:07emissions unlimited energy for you know

01:30:1060 70 years in the form of nuclear power

01:30:13um and we have chosen to uh to to not

01:30:15deploy that you know to I think just

01:30:17like devastating effects had we deployed

01:30:19it we we would have sidestepped the

01:30:22whole uh climate change issue that we're

01:30:26in currently by the way also the U.S

01:30:27would not have had to be involved in the

01:30:29Middle East right for this entire period

01:30:31right with the consequences there right

01:30:34like you know you know none of that

01:30:37right and again like you know like lots

01:30:39and lots of death right followed from

01:30:41from from you know from that um

01:30:43and so um and then you know this this

01:30:46basic presumption that scientists are

01:30:48somehow morally responsible for how

01:30:49their Technologies get used you know

01:30:51that's been formalized into this thing

01:30:52called the precautionary principle

01:30:54um and the precautionary principle had a

01:30:56specific Moment In Time invention that's

01:30:57very relevant it was invested by the

01:30:59German Greens in the 1970s to prevent

01:31:01the use of nuclear power

01:31:04um which is a decision that is causing

01:31:05you know tremendous damage not just

01:31:07globally but specifically to Germany

01:31:08right now

01:31:09um you know Germany is basically you

01:31:11know de-industrializing in front of us

01:31:13um uh because of of this mentality to

01:31:15sort of catastrophic effect

01:31:18um and and you know and a lot of why

01:31:19Russia was able to invade Ukraine is

01:31:21because they you know make so much money

01:31:23from you know selling uh fossil fuels to

01:31:25Europe because 70 of 70 of GDP in Russia

01:31:29I believe is fossil yeah it's energy

01:31:31fossil fuels and like that market would

01:31:33go to zero if we had properly deployed

01:31:34news Richard Richard you know the the

01:31:36you know the demonized Richard Nixon had

01:31:38a plan in 1971 the year I was born uh he

01:31:41proposed a plan called project

01:31:42Independence which he said we should

01:31:44build a thousand civilian nuclear power

01:31:45plants in the 1970s we should be

01:31:46completely fossil fuel independent free

01:31:48zero use uh 100 nuclear energy by by

01:31:511980.

01:31:53um and we could have done it we had the

01:31:55technology we knew how to do it and we

01:31:56didn't do it and it was a choice and it

01:31:57was a catastrophically bad choice and a

01:32:00lot of scientists every step of the way

01:32:01were against the use of nuclear power

01:32:04um they were involved in all of this and

01:32:06so that this presumption that because

01:32:08you are the scientist or the

01:32:10technologist that you have the moral

01:32:11authority to make these sort of

01:32:12sweepings or the filmmaker or the

01:32:14filmmaker The China Syndrome was it was

01:32:16very influential

01:32:17or the filmmaker or by the way the

01:32:19journalists who cut you know all the

01:32:20news stories written about Three Mile

01:32:21Island right which we now know today

01:32:23like you know basically I think I think

01:32:25that I believe the total number of

01:32:26deaths attributable through Mile Island

01:32:28I think is still zero yes

01:32:30um right um and so yeah this like Panic

01:32:34um you know that basically was fed by

01:32:36many of us and by the way the total

01:32:38number of deaths annually on oil rigs is

01:32:41extremely high like it's shockingly high

01:32:44it's the most dangerous job one could

01:32:46imagine yeah civilian nuclear power

01:32:48globally in the last 70 years has been

01:32:49responsible for a number of deaths very

01:32:51close to zero in contrast to basically

01:32:53every other form of energy we know of um

01:32:55so so we could talk a lot more about

01:32:57that but yeah not to mention the

01:32:58geopolitical like issues and the wars

01:33:01exactly so so what we have today I think

01:33:05we have like a shockingly kind of direct

01:33:07analogy which is we have this new

01:33:08basically breakthrough science

01:33:10technology of AI

01:33:12um it has potential National Security

01:33:13implications it also has potential

01:33:14civilian you know lots of Civilian use

01:33:17cases lots of implications

01:33:19um and then we have a scientific Elite

01:33:21Class

01:33:22um many of whom you know so some of whom

01:33:24are not involved in politics and they're

01:33:25just in the lab and they're doing their

01:33:26thing and some of them you know um

01:33:28whatever have different views but like a

01:33:29fair number you know the ones that are

01:33:31in the press the ones that are in

01:33:32Washington overwhelmingly

01:33:33um are playing the same role that you

01:33:35know the handwringers played um you know

01:33:37following the creation of of nuclear

01:33:39technology and they are moving as

01:33:40aggressively as they can to cut off

01:33:43um the use of AI

01:33:44um and uh for sure in civilian use cases

01:33:47by making all these lobbying efforts for

01:33:49regulation and all this all this fear

01:33:51migraine that they're doing

01:33:52um and and and and then the fact that

01:33:54this is happening against the backdrop

01:33:56of what looks like a new cold war with

01:33:57with a totalitarian Communist Regime

01:34:00um right like exactly like it happened

01:34:02you know in oppenheimer's time with the

01:34:04Russians like like it's it feels eerily

01:34:07to me like history is repeating itself

01:34:08like a lot more directly than I would

01:34:10prefer

01:34:12um and I think there are a lot of

01:34:14lessons to draw from the mistakes that

01:34:15were made in that era and that we should

01:34:16not make those mistakes in this era and

01:34:18at least sitting here today those

01:34:19lessons are not being drawn no

01:34:22they are not well this is an interesting

01:34:24question for you and to me um because I

01:34:27think we'll have very different answers

01:34:28uh what attracts Fringe ideas people to

01:34:31the Bay Area as in oppenheimer's time uh

01:34:35why was it a hotbed for Communists and I

01:34:37I can actually you know I grew up in

01:34:38Berkeley so I can probably speak

01:34:40directly to that well you should talk if

01:34:42you could just concept for people who

01:34:43don't aren't familiar with the Bay Area

01:34:45like just describe describe the nature

01:34:47of the Bay Area then and now in terms of

01:34:49in terms of this question so when I was

01:34:51growing up um look the Bay Area is a

01:34:55one it's an intellectual hotbed

01:34:58um you know just

01:35:00so many of the smartest people that I

01:35:03you know like I went to Berkeley High

01:35:05School which was a public school in

01:35:06Berkeley and um you know I went to

01:35:09Columbia which is an Ivy League school

01:35:11and and there's no question

01:35:13the smartest kids at Berkeley High were

01:35:16smarter than the smartest kids at

01:35:17Columbia

01:35:18um you know it's just like huge

01:35:21concentration of intellectual Talent

01:35:23uh

01:35:24uh you know and of course the Bay Area

01:35:27has kind of evolved into you know which

01:35:30to me isn't surprising at all into this

01:35:33you know the the the mecca of high tech

01:35:35and I'm also kind of uh you know

01:35:37intellectual Ground Zero

01:35:40um but it's also uh you know incredibly

01:35:44left-wing um and Berkeley is a basically

01:35:47a a communist City yeah I mean it's a p

01:35:50I call it the People's Republic like

01:35:52there are many Communists in Berkeley

01:35:53like and even you know to the extent

01:35:55they're not like they're communes

01:35:57there's like communist ideas uh you know

01:36:00Berkeley instituted I think the first

01:36:02nuclear free zone in in America you know

01:36:05you had all these very you know People's

01:36:07Park which is like a communist Park

01:36:08owned by the people

01:36:10um when I was growing up as a kid like

01:36:12just like many many communist ideas

01:36:15there

01:36:17um and you know what was the appeal uh

01:36:20so

01:36:23I I think like one the highly

01:36:25intellectual kind of creative people are

01:36:27are certainly open to new ideas

01:36:29um and you know communism is

01:36:32you know because it's an idea uh you

01:36:35know mostly an idea at least in the

01:36:36United States thankfully

01:36:38um you know it's got appeal uh but I I

01:36:41see there's there's something kind of

01:36:42deeper growing up in Berkeley you know

01:36:44and I still have a Nostalgia for it that

01:36:46at small scale

01:36:48um there's a

01:36:51there's an Ethics to Communism that is

01:36:56you know similar to a religious set of

01:36:58Ethics so Christianity or you know to

01:37:01some extent you know

01:37:03you know certainly Jewish culture if not

01:37:05exactly Jewish religion but Jewish

01:37:06religion too

01:37:08um where uh you know there's just like a

01:37:11real obligation to care for each other

01:37:14um and to uh treat each other correctly

01:37:17you know the Golden Rule all those kinds

01:37:19of things are very

01:37:21you know Jesus arguably was a communist

01:37:23uh and you know these kinds of ideas are

01:37:27really great to live in when when

01:37:29everybody abides by them it makes for a

01:37:31great society and I think that at a

01:37:32small scale you know in a lot of

01:37:34Berkeley like you had some of that

01:37:38um and you know like I mean it was one

01:37:40of the one of the things that was very

01:37:42shocking to me when I left Berkeley was

01:37:44you know just like how racialized the

01:37:47rest of the country was when like

01:37:48Berkeley was like that was like

01:37:49explicitly not a thing

01:37:52um so it had you know there was a lot of

01:37:54those kinds of appeal

01:37:55um but of course you have like a massive

01:37:57scale issue with it uh that that we uh

01:38:01certainly overlooked as kids I think

01:38:03there's also be curious what you think

01:38:04of this I think there's also a reaction

01:38:06that takes place which is a lot of

01:38:07people in the Bay Area then and now are

01:38:09Imports

01:38:11um and you know some from overseas but a

01:38:13lot from inside the US right and I'm an

01:38:15example of this I grew up in rural

01:38:16Midwest and moved here and a lot of the

01:38:18kind of you know kind of classic Silicon

01:38:20Valley characters like Bob noyce right

01:38:21were somewhere similar

01:38:23um from the Midwest yeah I think there's

01:38:25also a reaction thing which is I think

01:38:27if you

01:38:28I I think if you grow up in the American

01:38:30like Midwest or South a lot if you're

01:38:32like and you're like super like high IQ

01:38:35and super open to new ideas you probably

01:38:37view the culture of the where you grew

01:38:39up as sort of not being conducive to do

01:38:42ideas stay inside the lines

01:38:45exactly or what they you know called

01:38:47tall poppy syndrome um yeah right you

01:38:49know a fair number of people you know

01:38:51kind of come here because they're going

01:38:53they're they're they're they're reacting

01:38:55against that

01:38:56um right and so they have sort of a

01:38:58natural reaction against what they view

01:39:00as you know traditionalism

01:39:02um you know what they would they would

01:39:04characterize like hide bound morality

01:39:06um anti-intellectualism

01:39:08um you know lack of creativity lack of

01:39:10openness to new ideas and then the other

01:39:12thing you get is you get people who come

01:39:13from the east coast and they're reacting

01:39:15I think to something different they're

01:39:16reacting to like almost history right

01:39:18they're they're reacting to you know the

01:39:21East Coast you know in the US as you

01:39:22know New York Boston so forth at least

01:39:24you know historically is more you know

01:39:25focused on you know old old more old

01:39:27money more High more kind of established

01:39:29social hierarchies you know more kind of

01:39:32clear gradations of like who matters and

01:39:33who doesn't you know where you would

01:39:35right where you went to school who your

01:39:37family is

01:39:38um you know who you're married to and so

01:39:39forth you know kind of social status

01:39:41being the the sort of thing that

01:39:43arguably is is sort of central to the

01:39:44the Eastern kind of establishment yeah

01:39:46so it's the big thing that Bob Noyes

01:39:48kind of rooted out of Intel like at its

01:39:51core I mean he he he he got rid of all

01:39:54of that East Coast idea that was

01:39:56actually the birth of the Silicon Valley

01:39:58culture amazingly right egalitarianism

01:40:01right everybody in cubicle right nobody

01:40:02gets the fancy office nobody gets the

01:40:04guaranteed parking spot well and

01:40:05ironically the term meritocracy came

01:40:07from uh Bob noyce and and that idea of

01:40:10you aren't going to be judged on your

01:40:13family your title it was going to be

01:40:16you're going to be judged on your ideas

01:40:17and somehow that that became a negative

01:40:20yeah so it's kind of like the selection

01:40:22thing I think where you get this thing

01:40:24where it's like old is you know sort of

01:40:25it's like if if what you believe it's

01:40:27let's say you're young maybe alienated

01:40:30person where you're growing up and you

01:40:32are smarter than the people around you

01:40:33and you're more open to new ideas and

01:40:35you have this sort of ins sort of

01:40:37visceral reaction where things that are

01:40:39let's say the following old traditional

01:40:42right backwards reactionary hide bound

01:40:46um hierarchical

01:40:48um non-egalitarian

01:40:50um uh you know stuck in the mud

01:40:53um you know Philistine right like not

01:40:55open a new art not open to new music and

01:40:58so forth like all these things then you

01:41:00select into the place that welcomes all

01:41:03of that right

01:41:05um which is the San Francisco Bay area

01:41:07and California right

01:41:10um but but but then what you right but

01:41:12then the the risk is of course what you

01:41:14get is you get you you by by by fleeing

01:41:17the pathological thing that you hate

01:41:19right you kind of become the

01:41:21pathological thing on the other side yes

01:41:23yes the old line I always heard growing

01:41:25up was California everybody's so

01:41:27open-minded their brains have fallen out

01:41:28right like

01:41:30which yeah

01:41:32you know

01:41:33okay

01:41:34can happen

01:41:36can't it can't happen and so you you get

01:41:38this like hyper you know then let's try

01:41:40to characterize on the other side you

01:41:42get in California bear you get this kind

01:41:43of hyper what do they call it xenophilia

01:41:45right so you the sort of Love of the

01:41:47other right rejection of One's Own love

01:41:49of the other this extreme level of

01:41:51openness this extreme level of um you

01:41:54know sort of embrace of creativity new

01:41:56ways of living by the way new sexual

01:41:59mores new food habits right drug ideas

01:42:03new drug ideas right new religions new

01:42:06Cults yeah right and so you you get that

01:42:10whole other side of it and I and I and

01:42:12anyway my my interpretation is therefore

01:42:14therefore the Communist right therefore

01:42:16communism right and then therefore a lot

01:42:18of the other kind of it's yeah yeah of

01:42:20course of course it's going to be here

01:42:21and of course all the people who are

01:42:23going to think that all those things are

01:42:24good ideas are going to be here and and

01:42:25it's and it's it's the good with the bad

01:42:27right it's the it's the it's the it's

01:42:29why you get Silicon Valley it's why you

01:42:30get Hollywood it's why you get all the

01:42:32new ideas it's why you get all these new

01:42:33things right uh it's not an accident

01:42:35right um but um it's it's a total

01:42:38package with the potential dark side I

01:42:40mean and then part of the um

01:42:42challenges

01:42:44the level of talent is so high in the

01:42:46ability to convince the world of these

01:42:49um sometimes not terrific ideas is is

01:42:52potent all right well we have one from

01:42:55your

01:42:56buddy Beth Jesus

01:42:59and uh what he would like to know is how

01:43:03do we stop the anti-capitalist

01:43:05Communists from decelerating AI progress

01:43:09with red tape like they have done with

01:43:11the advancement of nuclear energy how

01:43:14can we call them out for prioritizing

01:43:16control and top-down power over

01:43:18civilization growth that's a lot yes

01:43:23yeah give it a whack

01:43:24well it's a good Insight look I think

01:43:27that um it's very very important to join

01:43:30the conversation and I think that um

01:43:32so so look the danger is as with nuclear

01:43:36right like if you're a pro-nuclear uh

01:43:39you could be painted as you know amoral

01:43:42um because everybody knew nukes were so

01:43:45dangerous and it was like this devil

01:43:46technology and all these things

01:43:49um and so as a result I think that

01:43:52look the the the the people of the time

01:43:56did not argue strong enough for it to to

01:43:58win the thing didn't argue didn't Lobby

01:44:00didn't

01:44:01um you know legislate didn't didn't

01:44:04stand up for it because like nobody

01:44:06wants to be painted as a bad person and

01:44:09uh you know history is a funny thing

01:44:11because you know at the time it's always

01:44:13oh like you know history is going to

01:44:16look back on you badly the people who

01:44:18say that are usually the people who

01:44:19history looks back on badly on

01:44:22um and so I you know like I think we

01:44:25have to make the argument and

01:44:28you know I think you've done a great job

01:44:29of that in your in your blog post Mark

01:44:33um um why AI will save the world uh but

01:44:37you know the the the good the obvious

01:44:41good that's coming out of AI right now

01:44:43versus the theoretical

01:44:46um

01:44:47the theoretical kind of not just

01:44:49unproven but unsubstantiated threat uh

01:44:53which you know like if you read any of

01:44:56the arguments about

01:44:57okay this is what AI is going to do this

01:45:00is this is my idea like okay how do we

01:45:03test for that how do we know

01:45:05um

01:45:06there's nothing so it's just like

01:45:09literally we're the good guys

01:45:12um so we're going to either uh you know

01:45:15we're going to curb AI we're going to

01:45:17capture Monopoly for ourselves or you

01:45:20know we know like the truth with a

01:45:23capital T even though we have no way of

01:45:25proving it and so we're going to stop

01:45:26progress which I like is very dangerous

01:45:29right now because you know if you look

01:45:31at the threats that we Face be it you

01:45:33know pandemics or

01:45:35climate change or just general kind of

01:45:40challenges with population growth

01:45:44Ai and technology is the way out it is a

01:45:47way to to solve these problems

01:45:50um and you know it's it's

01:45:53really kind of devastatingly scary that

01:45:57people would like undermine the one

01:45:59technology or the the best hope for

01:46:02solving so many of these problems

01:46:04disease

01:46:06etc etc etc yeah it's literally an

01:46:08attempt to withdraw the increase of

01:46:10intelligence from the world

01:46:12right like it's literally an attempt to

01:46:13make the world dumber than it has to be

01:46:15which whole pots idea Paul pot had that

01:46:18idea

01:46:19like people really need to think that

01:46:21one through we talked about a lot of

01:46:23this let me talk kind of around a lot of

01:46:24this I think at the core of it there's a

01:46:26philosophical distinction and you just

01:46:27kind of alluded to it but I'll make it

01:46:29explicit

01:46:30um so there's a philosophical

01:46:31distinction in how people think about

01:46:33the world and Thomas Soul uh who's one

01:46:35of the you know great great minds of our

01:46:36time

01:46:37um the way that he described you know he

01:46:39grappled with a lot of these questions

01:46:40around communism and progress and growth

01:46:41and so forth we started out as a

01:46:43communist yeah he started out as a

01:46:45communist exactly and he thought his way

01:46:46out of it but um he he what he said

01:46:49basically is look there's when it comes

01:46:50to all these issues like this there are

01:46:51like two World Views you can have and he

01:46:53he calls them Visions there's two

01:46:55visions of the world you can have

01:46:57um in the future the future world you

01:46:58can have and you call them the the

01:46:59unconstrained vision and the constrained

01:47:01vision

01:47:03um and the unconstrained vision is

01:47:04basically any vision of you can achieve

01:47:07Utopia

01:47:08um you can sit on Mount Olympus and you

01:47:10can decide how things are going to play

01:47:12out you know utilitarianism fits into

01:47:14the constrained Vision communism fits

01:47:16into the unconstrained Vision

01:47:18um uh sort of you know anything where

01:47:20it's like we can make you know we can

01:47:22make decisions on behalf of everybody

01:47:24you know the the good and the wise and

01:47:26the elite and the the scientists and the

01:47:28academics and so forth like we can make

01:47:30decisions on behalf of everybody we can

01:47:31centralize power within us because we

01:47:33are the ones that can be trusted to make

01:47:35the right decisions

01:47:36um that's what he calls the

01:47:37unconstrained vision and you know

01:47:39basically what he points out is to as

01:47:41you kind of as Ben has described the

01:47:43centralization of power that happens in

01:47:44the unconstrained uh Vision leads to you

01:47:47know sort of sort of predictably

01:47:48catastrophic results he says look the

01:47:50the the real world the way things

01:47:52actually work the way when things

01:47:54actually get better the way the way they

01:47:55get better is through what they call the

01:47:56constrained vision and the constrained

01:47:58vision is is like you know decentralized

01:48:00as opposed to centralized right so the

01:48:02constraint the unconstrained vision of

01:48:04centralized control and and dictatorship

01:48:07of everything uh by this by the smart

01:48:09and the wise the the constrained vision

01:48:11is bottoms up decision making right

01:48:13decentralization uh people working their

01:48:15way through it

01:48:16um uh you know it's a market the the

01:48:19constrained vision is the market economy

01:48:21versus the planned economy right the the

01:48:22constrained vision is AI is a tool for

01:48:25people to be able to experiment in many

01:48:26different ways to do things as opposed

01:48:28to a you know set of sort of enlightened

01:48:30scientists or or academics who can make

01:48:32decisions on how this will get used

01:48:35um and and what the constrained vision

01:48:36is it's basically a recognition of the

01:48:38of the imperfectness of man right it's

01:48:39sort of a it's sort of a recognition

01:48:41that there's no one of us that's like

01:48:42wise enough to be able to play Zeus or

01:48:45God or Jesus or whatever and and

01:48:47basically dictate right it just it

01:48:50doesn't exist like Jesus you know

01:48:51Superman doesn't exist Jesus this is

01:48:53like they're not you know they're not

01:48:54here they may have been here at one

01:48:55point in the past they're not here today

01:48:56we're left without we're left with

01:48:58imperfect Homo sapiens um and so

01:49:00therefore what you want to do if you

01:49:02want progress you want basically maximum

01:49:04Freedom flexibility right inventiveness

01:49:06local application of of Technology

01:49:09ability for people to experiment right

01:49:12um and and and and with that Vision

01:49:13you're much better off because you're

01:49:15harnessing the intelligence and energy

01:49:17of a much larger set of people to

01:49:18discover uh the the the the best path

01:49:21forward and and to me it's just like

01:49:23again under reading in history it's just

01:49:24kind of crystal clear how this plays out

01:49:27um but we are back in this moment where

01:49:28there are people who are claiming the

01:49:30power to be able to make these decisions

01:49:31on everybody's behalf and you know look

01:49:33the the bad news is they're they're

01:49:35winning in a lot of ways like they're

01:49:36very dominant in Washington they're a

01:49:37lot being very aggressively right now

01:49:39um you know they're very dominant in the

01:49:41Press um you know they're they're

01:49:42serious danger here the EU is about to

01:49:44pass you know a law based on these ideas

01:49:46that I think is going to be very

01:49:47devastating for them

01:49:48um the good news is these people are a

01:49:52very small minority these are not you

01:49:54know they're they're hundreds or

01:49:55thousands not tens or hundreds of

01:49:57thousands of these people or Millions

01:49:59um and so you know the rest of us don't

01:50:01have to put up with this

01:50:03um and we don't have to let the

01:50:04decisions get made this way

01:50:06um you know any more than we had to put

01:50:07up with the people who basically banned

01:50:09nuclear power in a way that we now know

01:50:10to be catastrophic it's really

01:50:11interesting that the constrained version

01:50:13is the the constrained vision is the

01:50:17vision of humility

01:50:19um and kind of understanding the

01:50:21limitations of humans and uh the the

01:50:25kind of

01:50:26the the the the self-appointed good

01:50:28people have zero humility about this and

01:50:32are willing to kind of dictate the

01:50:34future of the world from on high and it

01:50:37is uh it it's just striking

01:50:39to me that

01:50:42um

01:50:42uh you know people who are literally

01:50:45acting badly are acting badly under the

01:50:48belief that they are the good people

01:50:50um and and I think that's been true

01:50:53kind of throughout history uh it's any

01:50:56you know the other kind of uh very

01:50:59encouraging thing about AI as opposed to

01:51:01nuclear uh Power and nuclear energy is

01:51:05you know with nuclear energy

01:51:09the kind of it was a physical thing

01:51:12um that needed to be kind of uh licensed

01:51:16and built and and was kind of more

01:51:18directly controllable and deployed um

01:51:21you know like to deploy a power grid

01:51:22which is kind of the main use of it you

01:51:25do need the government's cooperation

01:51:27I think with AI

01:51:29um

01:51:30you know a lot of these ideas are going

01:51:33to be pretty hard to enforce and I think

01:51:35that's actually a good thing I think

01:51:37that you know you can't like you can try

01:51:39to Outlaw math you can try to Outlaw

01:51:41textbooks you can try to Outlaw open

01:51:43source

01:51:44um but you know it's very difficult to

01:51:47enforce and like you know forcing it

01:51:48underground would be bad but uh it would

01:51:51be like there is no underground nuclear

01:51:54power like that that that is not an

01:51:56option

01:51:57um so you know I think that as a force

01:52:00the unenforceability of it

01:52:03um kind of may lead to a situation where

01:52:06as it manifests itself people will come

01:52:08to understand

01:52:10um

01:52:11the value of it and it being a Force for

01:52:13good and it not being uh you know

01:52:16something that needs Banning or massive

01:52:18constraining or concentration in the

01:52:20hands of two or three companies or that

01:52:22kind of thing which is all being pushed

01:52:25very hard today I'm all right well we're

01:52:27coming up like right on two hours so uh

01:52:31I hope you all enjoyed this

01:52:34um our first of many podcasts and uh

01:52:38yeah we certainly had a good time doing

01:52:40it and I'd like to on behalf of Mark and

01:52:43and uh

01:52:45Andreessen Horowitz we just say thank

01:52:47you for listening

01:52:48great thank you everybody thank you

01:52:51foreign

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