00:02what kind of apps do you think are going
00:04to thrive in this new year so there's
00:07already an early I don't want to say
00:08winner but maybe an early leader for
00:112023 which is TAMU which is a new
00:14Commerce app developed by a large
00:16Chinese company called pinduo Duo and in
00:19China the version of this app is a full
00:21group buying experience say you're going
00:24to purchase a bag of apples or something
00:26and the price on the app is two dollars
00:28the more friends you invite to add a bag
00:31of apples to the order the price can go
00:32all the way down to like 10 cents five
00:36um so it kind of gamifies Commerce the
00:39US version of it is a a little bit less
00:42sophisticated so far but it is basically
00:45deep discounts on these products that
00:47are largely kind of shipping from
00:49overseas there is quite a bit of
00:51gamification around inviting your
00:53friends to get extra points that then
00:55you can win free items shipped directly
00:57from you or even withdraw cash from the
01:00app by inviting other friends to
01:02download it so unsurprisingly that has
01:04resulted in a ton of downloads yeah free
01:07money yes for my most recent check I
01:11think of of the 25 days so far this year
01:14temu has been at the top for like 22 of
01:17them they were not number one on New
01:19Year's Day because some like habit
01:21Tracker app or New Year's resolution app
01:23hit it but otherwise they've held the
01:25top spot and that number of days would
01:28be good enough to break into the top
01:29five last year so I'm gonna make an
01:32early call that we'll see TAMU at least
01:34in the top five if not higher hemo is an
01:37interesting example of another kind of
01:40trend I expect to see in 2023 which is
01:42AI almost invisible AI products where
01:46we've seen these AI first products all
01:48the Avatar and art apps but Tick Tock
01:51was actually one of the first and still
01:53best examples of invisible AI where the
01:55reason the product is so addictive is
01:57because they have this algorithm that
01:59becomes catered to you temu does this
02:02really well all so they have this
02:04Marketplace in the back end of inventory
02:06from thousands of suppliers but as soon
02:09as you've browse the app for five or ten
02:10minutes they can tell pretty quickly
02:13what is she clicking on what is she
02:15interested in and then they'll serve you
02:16deals and products that are really
02:18catered to your interests so I expect to
02:21see more companies kind of utilizing
02:24that almost AI infrastructure you know
02:26that's a great point because we've seen
02:29the rise of tick tock as people shift
02:31from what people might say is more
02:33connection based or contact based
02:35interaction on social to interest-based
02:37where it doesn't matter if you know the
02:39person but Tick Tock because it's got
02:41such a strong AI backend is servicing
02:44the things that it knows you're going to
02:46like and it gets better and better over
02:48time and I think this actually fits into
02:50what we discussed before about how it's
02:51really hard to create stickiness with
02:55these apps over a period of time and
02:56again I think it's because you know on
02:59it's really nice to be able to leverage
03:01word of mouth as people tell you
03:03something but on the other hand that
03:05word of mouth changes very quickly but
03:07if you have a strong back end where you
03:09can evolve that and you can kind of
03:11follow the user through their journey of
03:13liking something and then liking
03:15something else later I think that's why
03:17Tick Tock has been so sticky because you
03:19know I've heard people who start on Tick
03:21Tock and they listen to dancing videos
03:22but then all of a sudden Tick Tock picks
03:24up that they like power washing videos
03:25or like keto recipes or and and it
03:29follows them through that journey and so
03:31there's no need for them to go look for
03:32something else and so I I like that you
03:35mentioned these two applications that
03:36have ai in the back end but I also think
03:39there's a nature to that that is much
03:40more sticky than AI That's in your face
03:43as you said like a lensa for example
03:45yeah this is also a fascinating point
03:48because it brings up another Trend that
03:50I think we expect to see in 2023 that's
03:53very counterintuitive and I think kind
03:55of reverses a wave that we saw in 2021
03:57and 2022 which is that the AI algorithm
04:01of tick tock is so good that it will get
04:04you enormous reach for your product very
04:07very quickly and so we've seen this
04:09trend with a lot of early stage consumer
04:11companies where a video will hit and go
04:13viral and suddenly have a million five
04:16million 10 million views and they'll get
04:18a flood of users that the product is not
04:21actually ready for and that the product
04:23isn't kind of equipped to retain and so
04:26we've seen actually a few startups I've
04:29talked to recently have started limiting
04:31their own virality which sounds
04:33impossible because virality is
04:35theoretically organic but what they'll
04:38do is if a video starts performing too
04:41well on Tick Tock it gets too many views
04:43they will actually temporarily shut off
04:45the video or archive a video because
04:48it's driving too many downloads and they
04:50feel like they're not necessarily
04:52converting those downloads into engaged
04:54users quite well enough yet so I think
04:58we'll see maybe the strategy around how
05:00Founders utilize Tick Tock hopefully to
05:03their advantage also evolve quite a bit
05:06in this coming year yeah it also reminds
05:09me of something you've mentioned before
05:12Tick Tock is so good that even users as
05:16well are kind of limiting themselves
05:18from the app I do this I don't go on
05:21Tick Tock because I am very well aware
05:23that tick tocks algorithm is better than
05:27my self-control and so I need to just
05:30shut it down and and not go on the
05:32application because I know I will
05:34inevitably find myself two hours later
05:36yes looking up and asking what happened
05:38so are there are there examples of apps
05:41that you've seen that kind of Leverage
05:43this pushback on how good some of these
05:47apps are at capturing our attention
05:48first of all I think the trend is very
05:51real and probably underestimated right
05:53now this is to me comparable to the
05:56moment for Millennials where Selena
05:58Gomez was like I can't go on Instagram
06:00anymore like the biggest most followed
06:02star we're seeing like Emma Chamberlain
06:05Jenna Ortega all of these gen Z Stars
06:07saying I'm not going to do Tick Tock
06:09anymore because it's too addictive a
06:11couple things have come out of that I
06:12think Instagram reels and YouTube shorts
06:15benefit from that it's funny I have a
06:17younger brother he's 22 and he told me
06:19like I had to delete tick tock because
06:21it's too good it's too addictive I'm
06:23just gonna watch Instagram reels and
06:25then I was telling him but you're giving
06:27data to Instagram reels that allows them
06:29to make that algorithm better and soon
06:31enough there'll be no escape from these
06:34like hyper curated short form video
06:36algorithms I do think like on a on a
06:39higher level maybe this ties back to
06:41what we were talking about with new
06:43consumer social things like be real to
06:45me are like a direct example of that
06:47kind of pushback on be real you go in
06:50you take a picture you have to take it
06:52in a two-minute frame maybe you scroll
06:54through and leave an emoji on some of
06:56your friends pictures but you're not in
06:58the app for usually more than a few
07:00minutes a day and so I think users find
07:02that to be kind of a more fulfilling or
07:05healthy way to engage with social media
07:07than ending up on a scrolling feed for
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