00:00Precision delivery of medicine
00:02entertainment franchise games absolutely
00:05exploding small modul reactors and the
00:07nuclear Renaissance plus AI moving into
00:11very complex workflows now these were
00:14just a few of the major Tech innovations
00:16that Partners at a16z predicted last
00:19year and our partners are back we just
00:21dropped our list of over 40 plus big
00:24ideas for 2024 a compilation of critical
00:27advancements across all our verticals
00:30from Smart energy grids to Crime
00:31detecting computer vision to
00:33democratizing Miracle drugs like gp1s or
00:36even AI moving from blackbox to clearbox
00:40you can find the full list of 40 plus
00:43Builder worthy Pursuits at a16 z.com
00:47bigideas 2024 or you can click the link
00:50in our description below but on Deck
00:53today you will hear directly from one of
00:55our partners as we dive even more deeply
00:58into their big idea what what's the why
01:00now what opportunities and what
01:02challenges are on the horizon and how
01:04can you get involved let's dive
01:07in as a reminder the content here is for
01:10informational purposes only should not
01:12be taken as legal business tax or
01:14investment advice or be used to evaluate
01:16any investment or security and is not
01:18directed at any investors or potential
01:20investors in any a16z fund please note
01:24that a6z and its Affiliates may also
01:26maintain investments in the companies
01:27discussed in this podcast for more
01:30details including a link to our
01:31investments please see
01:39disclosures hey everyone my name is
01:40Grant Gregory I'm an investment partner
01:43on the American dynamism team and this
01:45is my big idea for 2024 a new age of
01:48Maritime exploration Generations ago our
01:51ancestors took to the Seas to explore
01:54and yet today we know more about the
01:56surface of Mars than we do about our own
01:58planet seabed a new age of Maritime
02:01exploration is changing that and
02:03Founders are leading the way Maritime
02:05faces similar reliability and
02:07Engineering challenges as AER and space
02:10and many of the Technologies pioneered
02:12by the latest space age can be ready
02:14applied here too meanwhile the size and
02:16importance of the commercial and defense
02:18markets provide substantial
02:20reward we're seeing companies like
02:22flexport Sanic and sail drone and many
02:25others have already started modernizing
02:27Maritime and we anticipate that
02:29continued geopolitical supply chain and
02:31climate disruptions will further
02:33accelerate the demand for change here
02:35advances in AI hardware and computer
02:37vision present opportunities to
02:39transform our cities ports and trade
02:41networks with autonomous modernized
02:43fairies container ships and fishing
02:45fleets robots will help sustainably mine
02:48precious materials from the seafloor map
02:50and Survey waterways and monitor the
02:53health of our ecosystems new generations
02:55of Naval and Coast Guard vessels ships
02:58and submarines will set out to protect
03:00our supply chains and our Shores
03:03technology is once again returning to
03:05Maritime all right grant you say that we
03:08know more about the surface of Mars than
03:10we do about our own Planet seabed this
03:13is kind of mind-blowing if you really
03:14think about it because we're so close to
03:16the Sea and it's so integrated into our
03:19Industries like defense and the supply
03:21chain so why is this why do we know more
03:24about Mars than our own
03:28seabed yeah you know it's it's a great
03:30question I think on on the surface um it
03:33seems kind of silly but you know when
03:35you think about the raw surface area
03:37here it's quite massive the ocean covers
03:4070 plus percent of the earth trade is
03:42somewhere north of 55% of global GDP and
03:46over 80% of that by volume is getting
03:48transported on the sea and so you're
03:50dealing with something that has frankly
03:52just substantial scale that we frankly
03:54don't have a lot of great line of sight
03:56into if you think about it when we can
03:58look up into the Stars there's plenty of
04:00light if you're looking down into the
04:01water you can only go so far before it
04:05fades into black and so as a result
04:07historically we've just had very little
04:10literal visibility into the ocean and
04:12most of what we actually know about the
04:14ocean seaf Flor today has been gathered
04:16from Gravity data from satellites and so
04:20it's a useful starting point but the
04:22resulting resolution that we have is
04:24only about two square miles I think uh
04:26and when you compare that to something
04:28like our maps of Mars or Venus those are
04:32by comparison 50x more detailed and so
04:35it's it's pretty astounding um
04:38especially when you consider how
04:39important the ocean is for Life Ryan
04:40Peterson at flexport has a great line
04:42that the oceans are the circulatory
04:45system for the world um but fortunately
04:47I think there's a lot of trends that are
04:49pointing in the direction of us actually
04:51understanding our oceans much more
04:52visibly totally and I think you make a
04:54great point that it's literal darkness
04:56when you get not that deep and and our
04:58oceans are pretty vast but maybe you
05:01could share a little bit more about the
05:03reality of the maritime economy so when
05:05we're talking about the ships or the
05:06logistics that we all rely on what does
05:09that look like in 2023 and maybe you can
05:12also touch on why it feels like that's
05:14been largely Untouched by some of the
05:1621st century technology that we're
05:17seeing in other Industries I think the
05:20one important thing to call out is that
05:22maritime's a category that historically
05:25has been marked by pretty profound uh
05:27Innovation and changes um just from a
05:30historical perspective I mean you
05:31started with something like the sailboat
05:33which today is is quite di Minimus but
05:36at the time was very substantial you
05:39created something like the Sextant the
05:40submarine sonar even um and then
05:43something like the shipping container
05:45that reduced Global costs of
05:47Transportation um for goods by something
05:49like 99% and so Maritime in many ways
05:53has been the Genesis of a lot of pieces
05:55of technology that have fundamentally
05:56changed the world and give us today um
05:59but interestingly a lot of the current
06:02state-of-the-art is very analog and
06:04we're talking about an industry that
06:06still operates largely with pen paper
06:09and maybe emails and phone calls really
06:12um and I I think part of that is just
06:14there's an inherent amount of friction
06:17in trying to make Logistics work and
06:19work on time um and as we've globalized
06:23the margin for error has uh increased
06:26substantially and we're starting to see
06:28some additional other pressures uh in
06:30the past few years in a number of of
06:32ways yeah so maybe we can talk to that
06:35why in 2024 does it seem like there's a
06:38true Tipping Point here to change that
06:41equation the past three years I think
06:43are a good place to start which is you
06:46know whether it's covid supply chain
06:48disruptions or geopolitical conflict and
06:50strife I mean all of these things are
06:53intimately connected to our oceans and
06:55global trade and so as a result we've
06:57seen some pretty significant disloc
06:59ations uh in the past number of years I
07:01mean during covid we had the everg given
07:04ship blocking the sus Canal we had the
07:07LA Port congestion famously we've seen a
07:09rise in piracy um and then more recently
07:13we had the Titan submarine implosion um
07:16and I think they all point to the fact
07:18that um you know our our supply chains
07:21are intimately connected maritimes at
07:24the heart of that and the way of
07:27conducting things analog is not going to
07:29work anymore and so I think there's
07:31there's that backdrop which is important
07:33to understand uh and then there's also
07:35some other like larger I think deep
07:37currents here uh one is the
07:40international Marine organization has
07:42been establishing new rules and guidance
07:44for both emissions energy usage um and
07:48then also just like broader visibility
07:50and data U maintenance and so now ship
07:53owners have a real desire and need um to
07:56figure out how to make their Fleet more
07:59Reliant and performant and then also
08:02you're seeing just a real rise on the
08:04dod side with renewed interest in the
08:07South Pacific region um and again that's
08:10tied to observability deterrence
08:13resilience um and a lot of these factors
08:15and then I'd say like on the final part
08:17too you know encouragingly we're seeing
08:21a wave of startups that are entering
08:24more of a maturity stage flexport's a
08:26great example and there's plenty of
08:27others um that have kind proven out this
08:29is a real market and there's real
08:31opportunity here to digitize it and it's
08:33difficult but it's possible uh and
08:35equally we're seeing people from a lot
08:38of the other American dynamism companies
08:40like SpaceX Tesla and androll they're
08:43taking their learnings and experiences
08:45and bringing them over to the ocean
08:47right and some of those companies like
08:49SpaceX are specifically in Aerospace so
08:52what are the Innovations whether it's in
08:54Aerospace or otherwise that we can
08:56actually borrow now that we're in 2023
09:002024 what can be kind of copy and pasted
09:03or evolved as we look to
09:06Maritime there's a lot i' I'd say like
09:09there's a great a great way to delineate
09:11it would be there's the processes and
09:14understanding how to build quickly and
09:16scalably and then there's the actual
09:18technology and if you're to take an
09:20overly simplistic lens to all of this
09:22you know space and and the ocean are
09:24both very unforgiving environments if
09:26you have a hole in your rocket it's
09:28going to EXP FL and if you have a hole
09:30in your boat it's going to sink and so
09:32the status quo here is that there's you
09:34know unrelenting physical forces that
09:36are acting adversar against anything
09:39that you're creating and then putting
09:40into that environment and so that
09:42creates a dynamic where everything that
09:44you're building from an engineering
09:46perspective has to be both resilient um
09:50hardened and also needs to be incredibly
09:52perform in a whole range of scenarios uh
09:56and then the water also is just like a a
09:58very difficult environment if you think
09:59about it I mean electronics and water
10:01don't mix well at all um there's limited
10:04sensing capabilities a lot of the
10:06sensors that we use in other categories
10:08like radar and lar GPS they don't really
10:11work on the water and they definitely
10:13don't work underwater um and then also
10:15you're just dealing with an environment
10:17where everything's moving um you have
10:19wind you have waves you have currents
10:20Tides boats uh and then wildlife and so
10:24all of this needs to be hardened uh and
10:26I and I think actually a good example of
10:29some of the advances you can see on
10:31whether it's Machine Vision robotics
10:34autonomy um other capabilities like Arc
10:37boats has done a great job of
10:39encapsulating what the future of
10:41Maritime looks like and that you know
10:43from a process and team perspective
10:45Mitch and Ryan uh delivered the Tesla
10:49and SpaceX vision and Mission uh to
10:52Maritime they're not just creating
10:55consumer boats that are electrified
10:57they're actually building better boats
10:59that are more user friendly they're more
11:01functional uh and they're way more
11:03appealing to the average consumer um but
11:06while they're doing that they're also
11:07creating a manufacturing process that
11:10understands that the factory is the
11:12product and they're doing that in a way
11:15that scales Beyond just their first arc1
11:17boat but allows them to eventually
11:20expand Beyond to other product lines and
11:22I think all that together is quite
11:24important we're seeing plenty of
11:26additional like interesting development
11:29on underwater Imaging Etc and a lot of
11:32the I guess like the final encapsulation
11:34point is just space ultimately had to be
11:37done a lot of things in house and
11:39vertically integrated and we're seeing a
11:41similar approach with Maritime right I
11:44mean Arc is such a good example we
11:46talked to Mitch semi- recently and I
11:48think I use the term copy and paste but
11:51you brought up a really good point which
11:53is that the Aerospace industry got the
11:56ball rolling but we now need
11:58entrepreneurs to basically take that
11:59technology and specialize it for these
12:01different Industries he made a great
12:03point that a car will continue rolling
12:05down the street for a pretty long while
12:08even if the engine isn't running a boat
12:10will stop immediately right so each of
12:12these industries is unique and so maybe
12:14you can speak to some of the different
12:15applications so folks can get a sense of
12:18what may be on the horizon if we do
12:21incorporate these new Innovations what
12:23are the kind of geopolitical supply
12:24chain or climate applications that you
12:26are seeing built or that you see on the
12:28way and maybe also how far are we in
12:31that trajectory like are these coming in
12:33a year 5 years 10 years what can we
12:37expect there's a lot of change happening
12:40and there's a dir of problems to be
12:41solved I think the good news is that
12:43we're seeing a ton of blue space here in
12:46terms of what can be done and in some
12:48ways we're quite early in this chapter
12:50but in other ways I mean many of these
12:53companies are progressing quite rapidly
12:55and have been adding for a while and so
12:57you're seeing some pretty profound
13:00changes um you know maybe on like the
13:02observability front something that's
13:04been really interesting is you have a
13:06problem that expands from Deep Water
13:08navigation and autonomy that starts with
13:11route optimization emissions management
13:14but it also ends up in your ports and so
13:17one thing that was pretty mind-blowing
13:18is that you know we're dealing with the
13:21majority of our trade in the US is tied
13:23to the Inland navigable waterways and
13:27you have a mix of ocean water and then
13:29sediment that's constantly changing the
13:32seafloor uh and the current way that we
13:34navigate all of this is we manually
13:37every 100 feet um try and measure this
13:40where the bottom of the seaf Flor is um
13:43and as a result it's changing and it's
13:45very inaccurate um and this is something
13:47that sonar um and other pieces of
13:50Technology historically haven't been
13:51great at solving and now we're seeing
13:53companies with Machine Vision and other
13:56technologies that are uh fascina f
13:58fening this to the bottom of boats and
14:01are doing this in a synchronized Manner
14:03and so that you're get able to have a
14:04live map of where the C floor is how
14:07many ships can go down a specific Port
14:10path Etc so that's one I think the other
14:13way to think about this is you're taking
14:16a lot of the raw analog instrumentation
14:19you're digitizing that similar what
14:21flexport has done with customs and
14:23Freight forwarding and now financing um
14:26and then you're also adding sensors like
14:29I was mentioning to existing vessels and
14:32infrastructure and you're using all that
14:34data to capture and create more
14:36interesting and efficient route
14:39optimizations and then I think the final
14:41thing that's really been interesting is
14:44there's companies like Arc but also
14:46ceranic anderol with their dive platform
14:49that are building new versions of
14:51vessels from the ground up with modern
14:54day assumptions on how should these
14:56vehicles operate in a digital world um
14:59and as a result we're seeing some pretty
15:01impressive development on just like
15:04Hardware that re-envisions what
15:07something on the water should look like
15:09and so now you don't have to account for
15:11people on a boat you can have something
15:12that lasts longer can go under the water
15:15um can focus on Mission planning
15:19Etc yeah and maybe one specific
15:21application that you can speak to is
15:24just the idea of autonomous fleets right
15:26so what does that enable like you've
15:28mentioned in big idea the potential for
15:32observation what does the ability and I
15:34know that the idea of autonomous fleets
15:36isn't necessarily net new in 2024 but
15:39what does that enable like are there
15:40second third order effects of having
15:42that autonomy which we're also seeing
15:44increased on land but instead in water
15:47in this case yeah autonomy is
15:49interesting because there's so many
15:52applications and it's as to your point
15:55it's been discussed for many years uh I
15:57think there's the reality is that
15:59there's going to be different waves of
16:01autonomy in Maritime um there's going to
16:04be the actual autonomy for deep water
16:07navigation which frankly is probably
16:09less difficult than some of the other
16:11problems like once you're in a port
16:12you're navigating against other vessels
16:14against a shifting uh tide and then also
16:17seafloor um and then there's also ideas
16:20of like can we Ferry people from one
16:22port to another and actually make water
16:24transportation and navigation uh much
16:26more efficient and uh renew that
16:29in a way that most people right now
16:31don't um and then I think more broadly
16:34on on the defense side or even on like
16:36some more of The Fringe cases you know
16:39the goal is to create vessels that can
16:42go where people can't and so whether
16:44that's the seafloor um and Mining
16:47precious metals in areas where we can
16:49reduce our Reliance on other countries
16:52for raw Imports or it's patrolling our
16:55our coasts um covertly in our alleys and
16:59protecting them um or just navigating
17:02other issues a lot of this stuff is is
17:04quite useful um and to to date we've
17:07been quite limited based on where people
17:09can go uh again probably the Titan
17:12implosion is unfortunately a good
17:13example of just the reality that humans
17:16can't survive very well in under immense
17:19pressure in the water yeah that was
17:22definitely an unfortunate uh case but
17:25speaking to that there are going to be
17:27challenges I imagine along the way to
17:29some of the applications that you're
17:31describing and you already spoke to how
17:34going deep underwater is just inherently
17:36hard even when you're on the surface
17:39it's just much more complex than being
17:40on land so what are the key challenges
17:43that you expect on this path to
17:45modernizing Maritime I think like any
17:48industry that has robust history um it's
17:52going to be difficult to change and
17:54there's many things that are kind of
17:55tied together there's structural
17:57challenges there there's technological
17:59ones and then there's ultimately
18:00challenges with adoption and
18:02distribution when you're dealing with
18:04you know something in the physical world
18:07um those are often the hardest things to
18:09tackle and that's where friction is
18:11really high um and I think for
18:15entrepreneurs probably first and
18:17foremost the most pressing thing is
18:19having a foundational understanding of
18:22how the maritime industry works and how
18:25your company fits into that picture
18:27oftentimes you know this means finding
18:29initial Beach Head Market and
18:31understanding how you can enter that
18:33market um and then expand into a larger
18:36prize and I think you know very similar
18:38to Amazon you can't boil the whole ocean
18:41at once you need to thread the needle
18:43and go from books to the everything
18:45store and some of the best Founders
18:47we've talked to in these categories um
18:49have been able to articulate a very
18:51clear understanding of both how the
18:53broader ecosystem works and then how
18:55their company fits into it on the
18:58you know it's a double-edged sword
19:00because a lot of the tech that we are
19:01talking about that can be ported over
19:03from other categories like Aerospace can
19:05be brought over pretty readily but at
19:07the same time the reality that it's it
19:09is functioning so well is because it is
19:11a quite difficult uh category to build
19:13for um and then probably most
19:16importantly is once you build it and you
19:18understand what you want to do uh you
19:20still have to sell this to customers and
19:23this is a category that you know the
19:26people in the industry are quite smart
19:28but there it's very difficult to
19:29convince them to change because most of
19:32the stuff that you're trying to sell to
19:34them is dealing with m mission critical
19:36applications they can't have downtime um
19:39and they're already dealing with huge
19:40backlogs and stresses and so they
19:44oftentimes need to have proof of work
19:46they need to be able to see that there's
19:48some sort of like verifiable evidence
19:50that what you're doing will save them
19:51money and time and so as a result
19:53there's just a a huge onus on being able
19:56to deliver something rapidly in a cost
19:59efficient manner totally and by the way
20:01I have to say I love your water
20:03analogies you said you can't boil the
20:05ocean and also vast blue space so I
20:08guess to close things off um there's a
20:11lot of opportunity here that's clear you
20:13see a lot of different companies
20:15attacking these kinds of problems if you
20:17were an entrepreneur and there's
20:18probably Lots listening I think you know
20:20this is the kind of idea that gets
20:22people up in their seats thinking oh wow
20:24I can really build something real with
20:25my hands we talked software and Hardware
20:28coming together what opportunities are
20:30you most excited about and again if you
20:32were an entrepreneur or Builder how
20:34would you even think about starting I
20:36think to start you know understand that
20:39there's again use these analogies
20:41metaphors like there's a vast blue spa
20:43space here and as a result you need to
20:46be really articulate and intentional
20:48about what you want to solve um and
20:50you're going to be tempted to address
20:51plenty of other problems and and the
20:53reality is having Focus here is going to
20:56be Paramount to a successful compy
20:58company um and then from there you're
21:00going to earn the ability to operate and
21:01expand and do much more I think another
21:04interesting idea that we've seen is that
21:07in categories that are really resistant
21:09to adopting software oftentimes Hardware
21:11is a great Trojan Horse where you can
21:14sell that the customer base is used to
21:16purchasing some form of Hardware um and
21:19then from there you're able to layer in
21:21software capabilities and use that as
21:24the wedge from which you can kind of
21:25expand um but I think you know to carry
21:29on the autonomous V vessel and and
21:32vehicle side of things you know we're
21:34seeing in defense and in many categories
21:37there's an asymmetric advantage to
21:39having high volume and low cost and so
21:42in in this world of Defense but also
21:44just observability you anticipate
21:47there's going to be a number of
21:48companies that are able to provide
21:50swarms of vessels both on the surface
21:53and also subsurface that are able to not
21:56only protect our Shores and our allies
21:58but are able to detect um environmental
22:01damage uh issues in our oceans um and
22:04ultimately able to help us probably
22:06observe um you know our Fisheries uh and
22:10other Supply chains much more
22:11effectively all right I hope you enjoyed
22:13this big idea we do have a lot more in
22:15the way including programmable medicine
22:17that's taking a page out of the reable
22:19rocket Playbook anime going mainstream
22:22and whether the consumer AI Battleground
22:25may be moving from model to ux plus if
22:28you want to see our full list of 40 plus
22:31Big Ideas right now you can head on over
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