AI and the Future of Hollywood
a16z2023-10-01
23K views|7 months ago
💫 Short Summary
The Hollywood entertainment industry faces disruptions from streaming and AI, leading to strikes by writer and actor unions in LA. The shift in revenue streams to streaming impacts compensation for creators. AI's role in content creation raises concerns about job security and the future of Hollywood's traditional structure. The video explores the impact of AI on various professions, the evolution of entertainment technology, and the importance of embracing innovation. It also delves into cultural influences, creative tools, and the significance of originality in storytelling and music. Overall, it emphasizes the transformative potential of technology in shaping the future of entertainment.
✨ Highlights
📊 Transcript
✦
Disruptions in the Hollywood business model caused by streaming and AI.
01:09Writers and actors unions are on strike in LA, initially over streaming changes.
Concerns over AI impact on the entertainment industry have evolved.
AI is being utilized for creating short films and writing scripts, blurring the line with streaming.
Shift towards technology-driven content creation and financial considerations for writers and actors.
✦
The evolution of entertainment revenue streams over the last century has transitioned from live to recorded entertainment, VHS rentals, DVD sales, TV reruns, syndication, and more.
04:21Before streaming, TV shows had revenue from first runs, reruns, syndication, and DVD sales.
Streaming has consolidated these revenue streams into one, fundamentally changing the economics of the industry.
Streaming services operate on a flat monthly fee model without premium pricing, impacting how producers and creators of entertainment are compensated.
Making a movie or TV show for streaming now involves receiving a flat fee.
✦
Shift to Cost Plus Model in Hollywood Industry.
04:59Creators are now paid cost plus 10% with no additional upside for successful content on streaming platforms.
Decline in DVD sales has led to a lack of ancillary revenue affecting profit sharing.
Despite technological advancements, the format of movies and TV shows has remained unchanged for decades.
The economic shift has surprised industry insiders and outsiders, making predictions about future trends and revenue distribution challenging.
✦
Transition from sheet music to recorded music led to major changes in the entertainment industry.
08:15Internet-based distribution removed scarcity and reshaped the business model.
Over 70% of top streamers are now independent artists.
Traditional record company structure was not equipped to handle infinite distribution.
CEOs had to adapt and focus on creating platforms to compete with Spotify.
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Comparison between fungible and non-fungible items.
10:40Emphasis on economic production and value of fungible commodities.
Highlight of economic models in streaming services like Spotify and Netflix.
Spotify focuses on music rights while Netflix offers a variety of TV shows and movies.
✦
Changes in content on streaming services like Netflix and Spotify are common, with a focus on independent artists emerging.
13:07Users are shifting away from the need for extensive catalogs, as shown by the success of SoundCloud with independent music.
Streaming services like Spotify, Apple Music, and Amazon Music may start to offer exclusive access to new music.
The future of streaming services could involve providing a unique brand promise to users through exclusive content.
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Role of AI in creating content like music, TV shows, and movies.
15:29Question of AI creativity is explored with examples like creating iconic works such as The Godfather or Star Wars.
Emphasis on the importance of original and unique content over sequels or generic recommendations.
Viewer's desire for authenticity and innovation in entertainment is highlighted.
Preference for genuine experiences over imitations or variations of popular media is discussed.
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AI capabilities in generating fungible and non-fungible content.
17:55AI's potential to create generic content like mob movies and dance music, and consumer reactions to this.
The emergence of AI-generated rap lyrics in China and the possibility of AI taking over scriptwriting tasks.
Human obsession with human-generated content contrasted with AI capabilities in areas like chess and running competitions.
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Debate over AI intelligence in self-driving cars focuses on perfection versus being better than humans.
21:50Tesla's philosophy aims to be better than humans, measured by accidents per thousand miles driven, showing improvement over time.
Approval of a full robotaxi service in San Francisco by 2023 showcases advancements in autonomous vehicles.
Google emphasizes perfection in self-driving technology, contrasting with Tesla's approach.
The ultimate goal is to achieve near-perfection in self-driving technology before market release.
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The impact of AI on scriptwriting in the entertainment industry.
22:47CBS and other networks have found success with formulaic procedural shows like Law and Order, which provide a predictable viewing experience.
These shows are often compared to comfort food, offering a familiar and relaxing experience for viewers.
The potential for AI to write scripts that mimic human writing raises questions about the value of creativity in entertainment.
AI replacing human writers in genres like soap operas challenges the role of creative professionals in the industry.
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Impact of AI on professions.
24:35Raises questions about quality of work compared to AI.
AI potentially taking over tasks traditionally done by humans and its impact on job opportunities.
Discussion on independent content creation in Hollywood and increasing volume of content available to audiences.
Reflects on evolving role of professionals in a world with advancing AI capabilities.
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Impact of VCR Technology on Hollywood.
28:20Hollywood expressed piracy concerns with the introduction of VCR technology in the early 80s.
Sony's VCR innovation, particularly the VHS format, was a major player in the industry.
Despite potential benefits, the entertainment industry historically resisted new technologies like VCRs.
Japanese companies, notably Sony, were instrumental in shaping VCR technology, leading to the rise of Blockbuster and VHS.
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Impact of VCRs and DVDs on the entertainment industry.
29:47Advocacy for a law to ban VCRs on Capitol Hill led to a significant expansion in the entertainment industry, with the VCR doubling the size of Hollywood.
The shift to DVDs prompted a strike due to the withdrawal of revenue.
AI is predicted to revolutionize the entertainment industry, enabling talented individuals to create movies using AI tools on laptops, similar to music production.
This advancement is expected to democratize movie-making, allowing anyone with creative talent to produce films.
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Shift in economic power from distributors and studios to creatives due to technology enabling free distribution and lower production costs.
31:28Change mirrors the evolution of the music industry.
Hollywood's power balance shifting towards creatives, resembling collaboration in tech roles.
Tech industry joke about roles becoming obsolete due to AI.
Questions raised about the future of Hollywood's traditional structure and power dynamics.
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Impact of AI in Filmmaking
33:52AI's rise in filmmaking raises concerns about the relevance of traditional roles such as actors, directors, and screenwriters.
There is a debate on whether AI can take on tasks like writing, directing, and acting, potentially changing the dynamics of the industry.
The speaker highlights the unpredictable nature of automation and draws parallels to historical shifts in job roles.
The future of creative spaces is uncertain, with potential for new and more engaging opportunities, while human-created entertainment may gain value due to people's preference for human interactions.
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Evolution of transportation and luxury goods.
36:16Handmade items like leather shoes and suits valued for craftsmanship.
Irregular stitching in men's fashion signifies superior quality.
Shift in music economics towards live performances.
High profitability of concert tours for artists like Taylor Swift.
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Impact of AI on movie production.
39:15Practical effects may become premium while CGI becomes more common.
AI expected to replace robotic jobs, but human creativity remains essential.
Speculation on potential dystopian and futuristic scenarios for Hollywood post-AI integration.
Emphasis on the creative and inspirational aspects of storytelling across various art forms.
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Levels of Experiencing Emotions
41:10Emotions trigger biochemical processes in the brain, with specific areas like the amygdala being activated for emotion processing.
Entertainment experiences impact the brain and nervous system, likened to a roller coaster ride.
Narrative patterns in storytelling and music evoke emotional responses at a biological level.
Creative professionals do not always optimize for the biochemical aspect like AI would.
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AI algorithms programming human neurochemical biology for entertainment experiences.
43:08Engineered perfection in entertainment is likened to consuming Cheetos - lacking in originality and higher aspirations.
Repetition of movie plots and screenwriting structures, focusing on the three-act format.
Discussion of the philosophical concept of dialectic in storytelling.
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Overview of movie plot structure and 'Save the Cat' book impact.
45:41'Save the Cat' book outlines a 15-point template for successful movie plots, dividing each act into five points or 'beats'.
Different movie genres follow the same plot format, focusing on creating emotional roller coasters for viewers.
Discussion on archetypes in psychology and universal storytelling elements present in successful movies.
Successful movies follow a formulaic structure to create deep emotional connections with audiences.
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The hero's journey concept, popularized by Joseph Campbell, is utilized in narratives like Star Wars and Harry Potter.
47:24Screenwriters often use this archetype to develop compelling stories with a specific arc followed by heroes.
Entertainment's emotional impact on humans involves creativity and a layer of indirection rather than direct programming of emotions.
Musicians aim to express intense feelings through music, utilizing chord progressions to evoke different emotional states in listeners.
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The power of music to evoke specific feelings and emotions.
50:33Examples like the theme music from Top Gun triggering a strong physical and emotional response.
The connection between music and memories, creating a sense of patriotism and nostalgia.
Anecdote shared about a presidential candidate using Top Gun music at campaign stops.
Mention of a controversial tweet by Venod Kosla suggesting AI could program music to evoke any desired feeling, sparking debate.
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Influence of Oliver Stone's experience in Vietnam on his film 'Platoon' and real-life military enlistments.
52:56Stone's ability to influence through storytelling showcases the power of words, music, and stories in programming humans.
The use of technology in politics and social media for mass programming and influence.
Ethical questions raised by tools like GPT generating screenplays based on specific formats like 'Save the Cat'.
The potential capabilities and implications of technology in storytelling, highlighting the fun aspect of using AI for creative writing.
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The potential of AI to enhance creativity and output in the entertainment industry.
54:57Advancements in technology have historically led to new possibilities and growth in Hollywood.
Initial anxiety and resistance to technological waves have been overcome, resulting in economic and creative benefits.
AI has the potential to elevate the work of filmmakers, directors, writers, and actors to new creative heights.
The evolution of technology in Hollywood has transformed the industry and continues to push boundaries.
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AI tools like C GPT can accelerate the creative process for screenplay writers, directors, and actors by providing easy access to information and enabling renderings and storyboarding.
57:49The potential impact of AI on filmmakers like Stephen Spielberg could result in an increase in the quantity and quality of movies produced.
AI could revolutionize the creative community by making previously inconceivable possibilities achievable.
This could lead to richer and deeper viewing experiences for audiences.
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George Lucas put significant effort into developing the script and dialogue for Star Wars.
01:00:44Lucas' dedication to the film led to its incredible success upon release.
Every character in the movie has a detailed backstory written by Lucas.
This showcases Lucas as a top-tier professional operating at the peak of his creative abilities.
An immense amount of effort was put into the development of even minor characters.
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The importance of providing writers with tools for tracking and brainstorming ideas in storytelling.
01:01:55Writers can benefit from extensive intellectual scaffolding and augmentation to enhance their creativity.
Keeping track of complex storylines and ensuring consistency in writing poses a challenge for creators.
Surprises and subverting viewer expectations are valuable elements in storytelling.
Matt Weiner shares insights on the writing process for 'Mad Men', including the rule of generating five ideas for the next plot development.
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The process of generating creative ideas for Hollywood screenplays is discussed.
01:03:54Writers are encouraged to subvert expectations and push boundaries in their work.
Discipline and effort are emphasized as necessary components of constructing top-tier screenplays.
Setting a high bar for creativity and brainstorming at the beginning of each session are key strategies to overcome writer's block.
Generating multiple ideas and discarding them to find the best one is a crucial part of the creative process.
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AI technology advancements in film industry.
01:06:12Actors can scan their face and body to insert themselves into a 3D environment and have scripts written and movies animated starring themselves.
Directors can pre-render entire movies on laptops before pitching to studios, making production more efficient.
These tools will empower experts in the field and improve the skills of inexperienced individuals, such as film students.
Accelerates learning curve and enables creation of high-quality productions with previously unattainable visual effects.
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Democratization of creativity through electronic tools.
01:09:26Platforms like YouTube highlight individuals creating epic music using laptops and production tools.
Accessibility of music tools enables the creation of synthetic orchestras and choirs digitally.
Historical composers may not have heard their works performed by a full orchestra, unlike today.
Hollywood screenplays that were never produced now have the potential to be realized.
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Evolution of creative tools in enhancing the creative process.
01:11:00Anecdote about Quincy Jones and Frank Sinatra showcasing the impact of collaboration and technology on music creation.
Benefits of modern tools in augmenting creativity and productivity, emphasizing the importance of adapting to new technologies.
Reluctance of some individuals to switch from traditional tools to more advanced ones, with exceptions being rare.
Significance of embracing innovation for improved artistic output.
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The impact of Hollywood on shaping American culture and values.
01:13:10Hollywood as a vehicle for exporting American culture and values globally.
Anecdotal example of restrictions on imported American media and cultural influence under communism.
Insight into the harsh reality of living under communism, illustrated by a story about obtaining a color television set through bureaucratic approval.
Emphasis on the contrast between the fantasy and reality of communism, based on personal experiences.
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The impact of creativity and repression in a man's escape from communist Romania.
01:16:47Inspired by Pink Floyd's The Wall and Rainman, he was captivated by the vibrant colors of Las Vegas.
Exposure to Hollywood led him to swim across the Danube River to freedom.
The story emphasizes the broader implications for cultures facing censorship and limitations on expression.
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The impact of comedians on challenging societal norms and cultural stagnation.
01:19:10Comedians like Dave Chappelle and Chris Rock push boundaries by discussing taboo topics.
Their shows provide relief to audiences and break societal barriers.
The audience reacts with a sense of liberation and appreciation for the honesty and humor in their performances.
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Impact of AI on job loss in Hollywood compared to other industries.
01:21:42Historically, technological advancements have led to more jobs at higher wages.
Debunking the 'lump of Labor fallacy' which suggests job loss due to automation.
Citing economic principles that lead to increased production and economic growth.
Advancements in technology contribute to the growth of industries and the economy, rather than resulting in job losses.
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Positive impact of automation and AI on industries.
01:23:10Higher automation levels lead to faster growth by increasing production and reducing costs.
Increased sales and job creation result from automation.
Automation and AI are expected to boost industries and demand, expanding the global market.
The entertainment industry is predicted to experience significant growth and increased employment due to technological advancements.
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Impact of technological advancements on society.
01:26:09Introduction of cars created more jobs than it displaced, leading to economic growth.
Importance of adapting to change and innovation.
Blacksmiths losing jobs to car mechanics as a lesson in embracing progress.
Exploring new opportunities for growth in different industries.
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Challenges faced by musicians in the music industry regarding royalties distribution.
01:28:20The complex processes involved and the significant amount of money lost due to inefficiencies are highlighted.
Lack of transparency and accountability in royalty management by labels and entities is a major issue.
Artists often do not receive their fair share of royalties due to these issues.
There is a need for better systems to track contributions to songs and ensure fair distribution of royalties to address industry-wide challenges.
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Streamlining Music Licensing with Blockchain and AI.
01:31:00The current music licensing process is cumbersome and results in lost revenue for artists.
Blockchain technology has the potential to automate contracts and eliminate third parties, making royalty payments more efficient.
AI can further enhance these solutions and simplify their implementation.
Grimes is leading the way by using blockchain to license her voice for AI-generated music, sharing profits equally and embracing AI for fair distribution and collaboration in the industry.
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Immortalizing musical artists through AI and blockchain technology.
01:33:36AI technology is used to immortalize musical artists as instruments, making their work easily accessible and bypassing legal issues.
Blockchain technology is utilized to register and manage ownership and distribution of creative works.
Recognition of musicians embracing innovative ideas and advancements in the tech industry.
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The importance of independence in the creative industry and its contrast with the tech industry.
01:37:34Investments in artists or movies also encompass intellectual property rights.
A future scenario is imagined where a single musician dominates the music scene by owning all rights, resulting in numerous variations of their work.
The significance of determining who leads in shaping the future of music.
Embracing autonomy and control over one's work can have long-term impacts.
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Impact of AI on artists and filmmaking.
01:39:46Independence in creating content is crucial for remixing and reusing.
'Monsters of Men' movie showcases impressive VFX on a limited budget.
2,000 VFX shots created by a professional for killer robots, action scenes, and jungle settings.
Despite budget constraints, visuals are described as TV or Hollywood caliber.
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The impact of technology on film production and audience expectations.
01:41:44Technology allows film students to create high-quality movies on laptops, with room for growth.
Hollywood anticipates audience demand for billion-dollar blockbusters due to rising expectations.
"South Park" showcases success with low-budget productions, transitioning from cardboard animation to CGI while maintaining a unique style.
The show's ability to address current events quickly emphasizes the importance of adaptable production methods.
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Creative use of layered cardboard aesthetic in film achieved through 3D modeling on a small budget.
01:43:51Examples from movies like 'Easy Rider,' 'Reservoir Dogs,' and 'American Graffiti' show breakthroughs with limited funds.
Emphasis on potential for young filmmakers with unique visions to make impactful media.
Highlighting the possibility of a creative renaissance across various mediums.
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Importance of free speech and exchange of ideas in society.
01:45:30Historical examples such as the American Revolution and the role of newspapers in shaping public opinion are highlighted.
Discussion on the dangers of repressive societies that censor opposing views, leading to negative outcomes like mass violence and mob justice.
Consideration of the impact of AI on content creation and distribution, questioning how technology evolution may affect information providence in the future.
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Concerns about deep FES and its impact on the 2024 presidential election.
01:49:24Misquotes in the press, including a specific incident with the Washington Post.
Mention of Reddit group "the Revolution" and controversy over a specific word.
Criticism of a journalist for misrepresenting statements.
Potential consequences of cancel culture.
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Importance of tracking and verifying information in the digital age.
01:52:10Blockchain technology provides unbiased and incorruptible providence.
Systems are needed to establish credibility and authenticity in different contexts, including politics.
Blockchain and crypto technology play a key role in ensuring transparency and reliability in recording and verifying data.
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Importance of understanding blockchain technology before considering banning it.
01:53:32Future of copyright protection in Hollywood is evolving due to increased creative possibilities and potential industry growth.
Introduction of the concept of 'stuck culture', suggesting minimal innovation in media and technology since 2005.
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Lack of design evolution in products and media due to the internet.
01:55:56Internet allows access to niche interests, fostering diverse cultural creativity in small online communities.
Large companies focus on mainstream content to appeal to broad audiences, neglecting cultural fringe creations.
Critique of shift towards mainstream culture in creative fields, including Hollywood.
Trend of risk aversion in bringing new products to market, favoring safe options over innovative or niche ideas.
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The prevalence of movie franchises and remakes in Hollywood.
01:58:25Lack of originality in recent film releases is highlighted, with success stories like the Barbie movie and Oppenheimer challenging the notion of 'stuck culture'.
The introduction of the barbell theory, suggesting cultural fragmentation on the long tail and centralization at the head.
Success of original Hollywood movies like Oppenheimer is discussed, despite the industry's trend towards recycling old concepts and nostalgia.
Counter argument presented through examples like Christopher Nolan's success and the continued trend of remakes and sequels.
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Economic incentives in the creative industry favor established franchises over original content due to audience familiarity and risk aversion.
02:01:17Lowering the cost of originality through tools and technology can encourage more creative and original work.
The industry dynamics may shift towards increased production of unique content.
Affordable creative tools have the potential to overcome creative stagnation and increase innovation in the industry.
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Shift in global cultural dominance from American culture to other regions in recent years.
02:03:14Rise of streaming platforms and the internet enables artists from different countries to export their culture globally.
Impact of American cultural distribution monopolies historically favoring US creatives.
Potential negative implications of American cultural dominance on a global scale.
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Importance of sharing ideas and hearing different perspectives to reach the best ideas.
02:06:10Positive impact of AI in fields like politics and creativity.
Marshall McLuhan's concept of the global village where everyone is connected, drawing parallels to small town dynamics with intense social conformity.
Historical context of villages and cities as hybrid systems of communism and fascism.
Emphasis on the balance between collective good and individual survival.
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Importance of Cultural and Geographic Diversity in Creative Industries.
02:09:29Emphasis on the need for differentiation and competition among different locations in the creative industries.
Examples of Korea, Israel, the UK, and Stockholm having thriving entertainment scenes are provided.
Mention of successful American TV shows being remakes of foreign originals, showcasing the advantage of multiple sources of inspiration in the industry.
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The uniqueness of TV shows like 'Fauda' and 'Squid Game' is discussed, focusing on their cultural impact and originality.
02:10:33'Fauda' is highlighted as a show about an Israeli Special Forces unit undercover in Palestinian territories, sparking debate on its portrayal of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The authenticity and relevance of 'Fauda' are emphasized, giving viewers insight into real-life events and geopolitical dynamics.
Despite controversial subject matter, 'Fauda' is praised for exceptional execution and the dedication of the creative team.
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Recommendation of 'BuyBust' Filipino action movie as a politically and socially relevant film.
02:13:22The movie is shot on a low budget, set in Manila slums, and focuses on the drug war in the Philippines.
'BuyBust' is praised for its well-acted performances and immersive storytelling.
The speaker emphasizes the unique perspective the film offers on the situation in the Philippines.
Overall, the speaker recommends 'BuyBust' as a thought-provoking watch that provides insight into a different world.
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Importance of Global Distribution of Creativity
02:15:14Anecdote at an Adele concert in Las Vegas illustrates breaking down cultural barriers through shared experiences.
Emphasis on bringing the world closer together through creativity.
Thank you message to the audience and invitation to join the show in the future.
00:01okay um I hope everybody's ready for
00:03this one this is um we'll start start I
00:06don't know if I
00:14am hello and welcome to the podcast
00:17today Mark and I are going to talk about
00:19Hollywood and artificial intelligence
00:22could not be a hotter topic could not be
00:23a hotter topic um we are going to talk
00:26about things surrounding the currently
00:30in Hollywood but we're not going to talk
00:32about it directly so please don't get
00:34confused we're not taking an opinion on
00:36that um and nor should we because there
00:39are many parts of that that have nothing
00:42to do with AI and that we don't
00:43necessarily understand ourselves first
00:46question from Atif razza what part of
00:50Hollywood's business model will feel the
00:52most disruption due to AI so there's
00:56there's kind of two different layers of
00:57this um you know that we should I think
00:59talk about um and you know they're kind
01:01of together but they're kind of separate
01:03so so one is the disruptions to the
01:04Hollywood business model that were
01:05already happening before AI um and the
01:09due to streaming due to streaming and so
01:11the the the and the strikes that are
01:13happening and just for people who
01:14haven't been tracking this currently
01:15today both the writers and the actors in
01:18Hollywood both of their unions are on
01:19strike um and so you know all production
01:22right now in La uh is uh in in in
01:24Hollywood and you know American
01:25entertainment is is essentially shut
01:26down um and the strikes started uh as
01:30strikes over streaming um and they
01:32started out as strikes over the changes
01:34to the business model of Hollywood and
01:36the business model of you know in this
01:38case the writers and the actors um and
01:40how they make money and how much money
01:41they make and how you know so forth um
01:43what rights they have um you know the
01:45strike started around around those
01:47changes and then kind of as the strike
01:49was gearing up a few months ago the AI
01:52you know kind of thing hit um and and
01:54and all of a sudden you started seeing
01:55all these examples you know online of
01:57people starting to use AI to put
01:58together you know short short mov movies
02:00and write scripts uh you know or drafts
02:02of scripts or you know do other kinds of
02:03things and and so the the the strikes
02:05have kind of morphed from a streaming
02:07strike and an AI strike kind of kind of
02:09in mid-stride and so these these issues
02:11are kind of you know in other words like
02:12there would have been this strike just
02:14on the basis of the changes to the to
02:16the streaming thing so so maybe we could
02:18actually maybe we should just start
02:19there um and it's a little bit off from
02:21the the I topic but I think it's the
02:23foundation of what what's happening
02:24right now in the entertainment industry
02:25which basically what's Happ and I have a
02:28question for you kind of coming up in
02:29this Ben um what's what's happening
02:31basically is that you know the the
02:33Hollywood business model you know it's
02:36it's always changed like it's changed a
02:37lot over the last hundred years you know
02:38it used to be based on live
02:39entertainment then it became based on
02:41recorded entertainment right and then it
02:43became based on you know at some point
02:44you know you know video cassette um you
02:46know VHS rentals and then later on DVD
02:49sales um and then of course you know you
02:51know reer you know TV reruns and
02:53syndication and so forth so there all
02:54these kind of historical kind of changes
02:55to the model but basically things had
02:57settled into to kind of a pretty nice
02:59group as far as a lot of people in
03:00Hollywood were concerned you know kind
03:02of basically right before streaming yeah
03:04yeah know the the DVD thing was you know
03:07awesome yeah so TV shows basically
03:09started to have three streams of Revenue
03:11they were they had their first run uh
03:13Revenue when they were first on the air
03:15then they had reruns what called
03:17syndication so reruns and syndication
03:18where they were sold you know in later
03:20years for for airing you know by by by
03:22other people later on um and then uh and
03:25then and then the DVD DVD sales was was
03:27was this huge Boon and so and and then
03:29you know you movies you know very
03:31similar they they they sold through what
03:32were called the windows and so they they
03:34you you would you would go see a movie
03:35if you wanted to see a movie when it
03:36first came out you would buy a movie
03:37ticket um and then there was another
03:39window a few months later which was
03:41pay-per-view um right and then uh you
03:43know through cable or or satellite TV
03:45services and then and then ultimately
03:48those movies would be sold for TV
03:49distribution and and and for and for DVD
03:51sales and so they were actually probably
03:53like four revenue streams for movies and
03:55basically what's what happened to
03:56streaming is it sort of collapsed all
03:57that down into just streaming right so
04:00now you know most movies come out on
04:01streaming or cut over to streaming right
04:03away most TV shows come out on streaming
04:05or cut over to streaming right away um
04:07and basically the economics of streaming
04:08are very different because the the this
04:11well the streaming model is obviously
04:12very different to start with which is
04:13it's sort of a you know sort of a flat
04:15monthly fee for kind of all you watch
04:17exactly and and and then the other thing
04:19is like there's no premium PR it's
04:21effectively no premium pricing within
04:22the the streaming services and so any
04:24given TV show or movie they don't charge
04:26you extra like it's part of that bundle
04:28and so so what happened is basically um
04:30streaming looked like it it went from
04:32looking like it was another Boon to the
04:35producers and creators of entertainment
04:37which was it looked like it was like a
04:38fourth or fifth Revenue stream that was
04:39going to be additive and instead what
04:41happened is it be basically turned
04:42entertainment into a flat fee business
04:44and so today if you make a movie or TV
04:46show for streaming you get paid a flat
04:48fee to make that movie or TV show and
04:50then there's never any upside after that
04:52um and it right in fact a lot of the
04:54production of what's happened in
04:55Hollywood has has gone over to what they
04:57call a Cost Plus model um which is
04:59you're literally people who make the
05:00movie or TV show are paid the cost like
05:03plus 10% right right almost like it's
05:06like a general it's like a it's like bu
05:08contractor a consultant you know that
05:10kind of thing yeah exactly right exactly
05:12and so your your general contractor does
05:13not get the upside for when you sell the
05:15house later for more money and in this
05:17in the same way the people making movies
05:18or TV shows now don't get the upside if
05:20if it's a big hit on streaming and then
05:21the streaming guys pre- buy all the
05:23rights and so they pre-bi basically all
05:25the rights and perpetuity as part of the
05:26deal so there's never any ancillary
05:27revenue and of course people aren't
05:28buying DVDs anymore because everything's
05:29just done streaming and so here's what's
05:32inter and here's the question for you
05:33Ben that I've been really fascinated by
05:34so all through all of these changes
05:36basically over the last 70 or 80 years
05:38where sometimes movies and TVs movies
05:40and TV shows are great businesses
05:42sometimes they're bad businesses and
05:43sometimes you know they get repeated
05:44strikes and all these things people
05:45trying to figure this out like it's the
05:47same product right it's yeah the the
05:50format the product format of a movie or
05:52TV show is unchanged from like 70 years
05:54ago and so it's like all of the CH you
05:57know the changes have been driven around
05:58technology but all the changes are like
06:00in the microeconomics of the business
06:01and on the ability for different people
06:03in that market to extract greater or
06:05lesser levels of you know profit or
06:07profit sharing or
06:09participation money yeah yeah exactly
06:11and so who gets the money seems like
06:12it's it's it's amazing how many shifts
06:14there have been for who gets the money
06:16relative to the fact that it's actually
06:17the same product and so it it it raises
06:20a qu and then and then both uh Outsiders
06:22to the business as well as actually
06:23people on the inside of Hollywood
06:25including people like the studio heads
06:26who in theory are you know have the most
06:27information all this they have had a
06:28very hard time predicting where this all
06:30goes right so a lot of these changes to
06:32the economics of the business have
06:33actually been very surprising to people
06:34so so how do you like if you're a you
06:37know CEO in a business like this like
06:39how do you think about the fact that the
06:41actual basic economics of the business
06:43might whip around dramatically even with
06:45the product not changing yeah that's
06:47really interesting and um in the uh kind
06:51of Hollywood business they actually saw
06:54the precursor of course in the music
06:56business um right which went through by
06:58the way the music
06:59uh format also hasn't changed since
07:02sheet music right there's a big change
07:04from sheet music to recorded music just
07:06like there's a big change from plays to
07:09kind of uh recorded you know uh scripted
07:12entertainment um but that's been the
07:14only kind of change to the that's been
07:16the key product change uh you know there
07:18have been subtle product changes but
07:20essentially you know it's a movie or a
07:21song I would say the big uh like thing
07:25that I think people didn't recognize on
07:28this last change
07:29um last distribution change that was
07:33different you know from a CEO
07:35perspective was that in all the prior
07:38ones you still had in both music and in
07:42in Hollywood you had kind of this
07:44distribution scarcity thing that was
07:47very very powerful and useful um and and
07:50made by the way the Distributors
07:52incredibly powerful because there were
07:53only only so many hours of broadcast
07:56television um there's only so many hours
07:59on the radio that you could get your
08:01song on and that you know who controlled
08:04those hours was very very important and
08:07then could create you know a tremendous
08:09amount of uh kind of Revenue once you
08:12went to this internet model of abundance
08:15and there is no scarcity of
08:17distribution I think that change was not
08:19like the others and so that's why people
08:22I I in my view that's why people got
08:23caught with their pants down so yeah
08:25look when CDs came out and DVDs came out
08:27it was all like it's it's like those
08:29were the biggest boom times in those
08:31industries that they'd ever seen because
08:33they had all the money from before and
08:35then more money uh and so everybody got
08:38paid every you know and that kind of
08:39trickled down to the artists who also
08:42kind of made more than they ever made
08:44before and then you go to this streaming
08:47kind of interb internet-based
08:50distribution where oh guess what like
08:54they you can put as much stuff out there
08:56as you want and there is no kind of
08:58scarcity
09:00and then the whole business model is
09:01different and I think I I guess the
09:03thing that you know from a CEO
09:04perspective that was surprising to me
09:06about it or like if I was CEO I would
09:08have thought that I might have thought
09:10about it differently is you saw music go
09:14through this transition and the
09:16essential thing that happened in music
09:17was the ca structure of the record
09:21companies just proved to be absurd given
09:24infinite distribution that anybody could
09:27get their hands on and so what's
09:29happened in music is now I think over
09:3270% of the artists that are the top
09:34streamers are independent they're like
09:37outside of what you would call Hollywood
09:40and and in the music industry and in the
09:43kind of Hollywood Game the big reaction
09:46was you know not to look at the cost
09:49structure at all but just simply to
09:52basically create what the equivalent of
09:55a Spotify competitor so I'm getting into
09:57that distribution business as as opposed
09:59to I'm going to look at the content side
10:02of the business and make any changes no
10:03changes were made to content at all it
10:05was just like I want a piece of the
10:07action on distribution because maybe
10:09that's where the money is it's quite
10:11interesting but I think it's a I I do I
10:13agree with you it's a very complicated
10:15thing to think about because your
10:19product is the same it's like I know how
10:21to make a great movie so like that's
10:23always going to be worth something but
10:25you know what is it worth and then how
10:27many of them are there is is the other
10:29kind of relevant question yeah so this
10:31this takes us to then this takes us into
10:33the AI Topic in a very I think
10:34interesting way um and let me introduce
10:37um you know our friend Larry Summer's
10:38favorite word here which is fungibility
10:40yes so fungibility is this fancy word
10:42that basically means like it's something
10:44easily substitutable or not right so so
10:46like US dollar bills are like perfectly
10:48fungible right if I have a US dollar
10:50bill and I trade it with you for another
10:51one like both they're exactly the same
10:54you know a Rothco painting is not
10:56fungible right there's only one right uh
10:59either I have it or you have it and
11:00there's no substitute for it right or an
11:01nft or an nft exactly right literally
11:05non funable token so so so there's
11:07always this question of anything
11:08involving like economic production
11:09economic value there's this produ
11:11there's this sort of question of
11:12fungibility and a way to think about it
11:13is you know things that are perfectly
11:15fungible are kind of pure Commodities
11:17right so dollar bills grains of rice
11:19right um things that are
11:22nonsubstitutable things for which there
11:23is no substitute you either have the
11:25thing or you don't right are like are
11:27like perfectly non-fungible so a couple
11:28things so one is there's an interesting
11:30difference between the streaming music
11:31business and the streaming video
11:32business which and I I forget who said
11:34this but somebody came up with this this
11:36idea years ago when these these these
11:37companies like Netflix and Spotify were
11:39getting going which is there's a big
11:41difference in the economics of Netflix
11:43and Spotify driven as follows um the
11:45brand promise of Spotify um is it's all
11:48the music right and so if Spotify
11:52doesn't have the Beatles or L Zeppelin
11:53or Frank Sinatra or Madonna or Lady Gaga
11:56like that's a big problem and you know
11:58Spotify is big challenge as a business
11:59was figuring out how to get rights to
12:01all the music so so Netflix's brand
12:02promise this whole time has never been
12:04we have all the TV shows and movies and
12:06they never have the the brand promise is
12:08literally the way that they describe it
12:09I think is it's something like there's
12:11always something to watch and then of
12:12course content comes on and off of
12:14Netflix and the other streaming services
12:15all the time you know consistent with
12:17that and so the user users customers of
12:20of Netflix have been trained to
12:21basically not complain or at least not
12:23complain too hard when they show up you
12:25know next Tuesday and and some piece of
12:27content is is is gone because there
12:28there's just there's more content um you
12:30know they'll just show you something
12:31else and so maybe let's let's let's
12:33pause on that like is is that is that
12:35dichotomy of you either have everything
12:39or you just have this like maybe there's
12:41something good is that dichotomy Ben in
12:43your view is that inherent to the
12:44difference between like Video
12:45Entertainment music or is that is that
12:47is that actually somewhat arbitrary I
12:49think it I think it's turned out to be
12:50arbitrary so I I can't remember the
12:53exact numbers but
12:55um I I remember speaking to one of of
12:59the uh big streaming CEOs uh on on the
13:01music side and I believe over 98% of
13:05what's streamed has been released in the
13:07last 18 months so the whole catalog idea
13:11was probably wrong um and then the other
13:14thing that happened uh interestingly in
13:16music was kind of there was this company
13:18SoundCloud that didn't have the catalog
13:21that kind of just had independent music
13:23that was doing very well and then um
13:26because people also uploaded catalog
13:28songs they kind of got sued by the
13:29labels and became a cadalac thing and
13:31the business died but there was a like a
13:34real thing in there which was you didn't
13:38actually need everything um you know
13:42that I think was a misperception uh that
13:44just turned out to be really probably
13:47wrong in retrospect it's hard to tell
13:49because you can't run the counterfactual
13:51but
13:53um but but it is different like it's
13:55Indi in practice so like you know as a
13:58matter of fact
13:59you know Spotify Apple music Amazon
14:01music all have the catalog today so so
14:05that is what it is although that's
14:06changing because you know as I said 70%
14:09of what people want to listen to is
14:10Independent Artists and nobody has the
14:12independent artist catalog it just
14:14depends you know what they use United
14:17Masters or drro kit or whatever to put
14:18on those services and which Services
14:21they put them on and there are I think
14:23like 38 or 40 like reasonably
14:26significant streaming services out there
14:28today
14:29so is the theory basically on the first
14:31part of that the new music part of it is
14:32the theory that basically and you know
14:34on like in a parallel universe right on
14:35Earth 2 yeah is there a version of
14:37Spotify that's actually a better
14:39business because they give you they
14:41basically their brand promise would be
14:42we have all of the new music I think so
14:44because I think look the main people who
14:46listen to music and and of course
14:50streaming music although I think most
14:51people do now unless you're really old
14:54um are young people like I like the mus
14:57music has always been 17 to 25 or 16 to
15:0025 or 12 to 25 years old and and you
15:03always find I mean I find
15:05that if you run into a person who's not
15:08like super into music and you ask them
15:10what they like to listen to it's
15:11literally what they listen to when they
15:13were like 18 years
15:14old and you you know it's like oh I love
15:17Bruce frankstein I'm like oh okay great
15:19that's awesome you know but but that's
15:21just you know Bruce Frankin is awesome
15:23well it's no no problem with that but
15:26the idea that you need a stream service
15:29with like literally everything on it to
15:31listen to Bruce
15:32Springstein like the packaging was wrong
15:35like the segmentation in music streaming
15:38I think went in a bad Direction and
15:41never came back so so this then takes us
15:43to the AI topic and there's a you know
15:45there's a lot to talk about on the AI
15:47you know AI creating content creating TV
15:49shows and movies and and um music and
15:51everything else there's you know a lot
15:52of details to this but let's let's start
15:54with one of the like really really big
15:55questions which relates directly to what
15:56we've been talking about which is let's
15:58just assume for the moment that AI is
16:00going to be able to create music and
16:02movies and TV shows um over time like
16:04one of the big questions that a lot of
16:06people have um well it's actually
16:07usually they usually express it as a
16:09statement but it's like okay so how
16:11creative is AI right and so there
16:13there's sort of this thing where people
16:14kind of set this bar and they kind of
16:15say well you know could could AI make
16:16the Godfather right or you know could AI
16:18make The Sopranos you know in other
16:20words like the really non-f funable
16:21content like the real creative you know
16:23content one-of aind you know Star Wars
16:25original like brand new idea not the
16:2837th sequel or the next Marvel movie
16:31yeah exactly well like if I want to so
16:33here be a great example if I want to
16:34watch a mob movie right there's like a
16:36thousand to pick from and Netflix will
16:39recommend me a mob movie and it'll
16:40probably be a pretty good movie about
16:41the mob and I'm GNA be pretty happy
16:42because I wanted to see a mob movie If I
16:44want to see The Godfather right like I
16:46don't want to see I don't want to see a
16:47knockoff right I don't want to see like
16:49the god nephew right like I want to see
16:50like the right like I want to see I want
16:52to see the real thing right so so
16:54there's this division right between you
16:56know between or you know another example
16:57would be I want to I want to hear Lady
16:58Gaga's newest single versus I just want
17:00to hear some good dance music right um
17:02yeah right uh so this is this division
17:04between fible and un fungible so let's
17:05say hypothetically let's say AI is
17:07actually not capable for the moment of
17:10making that the truly nonf funable
17:11content so there's no AI Godfather Star
17:13Wars Lady Gaga coming out anytime soon
17:16right which is the the current
17:17state-ofthe-art on AI writing and so
17:20forth you'd probably put I would put in
17:22that category yeah I think that that's a
17:23reasonable assumption at least let's say
17:25at least for a while like even AI
17:27Optimist would probably say at least for
17:28a while so but let's say AI actually
17:30gets good at making the fungible stuff
17:32right so it gets good at making you know
17:34sort of quote unquote generic mob movies
17:36it gets good at making you know you know
17:38dance music and so forth like does will
17:42is the consumer reaction to that going
17:44to be okay great more fungible content
17:47um and they're going to just start to
17:48basically listen and watch kind of
17:50indistinguishably between basically
17:52fungible content created by people and F
17:55fible content created by AI let's start
17:57there yeah it's interesting I mean I
17:59think there's a couple things to that I
18:01I think that it'll probably show up as a
18:03component first there's a kind of
18:06certain uh kind of genre of rap music
18:09where like okay there's a class of Beats
18:13that are all very funable like you know
18:15wrap over the beat and then the thing
18:17that is kind of non-f fungible is the
18:20are the lyrics themselves and I think
18:22that's already starting to happen um and
18:26my understanding is you know in China
18:29it's actually like a pretty big
18:30phenomenon is like AI I'll be the track
18:32and then but it won't be the lyrics
18:34there there's a part that was fungible
18:37anyway on the
18:38non-fungible technology and that just
18:40makes it easier to do and I could
18:42imagine that happening very quickly in
18:44scripts as well it's like okay there's
18:47the super stylized like amazing dialogue
18:50here the plot idea this character
18:53development and then there's a scene
18:55that's kind of an essential scene but
18:57whatever the writer is tired and doesn't
18:59want to write like it's a very simple
19:00dialogue I went to a restaurant the
19:02waitress asked me something you know
19:03what the order for your food just didn't
19:05feel like writing that and like have the
19:06AI write it so I think that'll happen
19:08right away in terms of like complete
19:11endtoend
19:12AI content so the thing to me that's
19:16interesting about that like you know
19:18humans are obsessed with humans
19:21absolutely like totally obsessed
19:23with humans so like a cheetah has been
19:26able to run faster than a human forever
19:27but we watch humans run against humans
19:30we never watch Cheetah run the AI can
19:32destroy humans in chess we never watch
19:35AI play Ai and chess we only watch
19:37humans play humans in chess and on and
19:40on and on and on we're only interested
19:42in like they may be smarter better can
19:46write better but like we're only
19:47interested in each other for whatever
19:48reason so I think that's like a
19:51pretty fundamental thing like I I I'm
19:54not sure um and it's hard to say and you
19:57know can you tell
19:58but like one of the things that you've
20:00observed Mark and that I think um is
20:02very true is that the intelligence in AI
20:06is very exciting and interesting and so
20:08forth but it's very different also like
20:11it doesn't quite work like a human um
20:14although it's good
20:16at you know mirroring humans and this
20:18and that and the other but like if it
20:21became like super original uh you know
20:25what would that be and I mean it'll be
20:27interesting to see
20:28so it all begs this question for me and
20:30I I agree with a lot of what you said
20:31but let me let me push on it a little
20:33bit um so it begs this question it's the
20:35same question for me that came up around
20:36self-driving cars um the question around
20:39self-driving cars was how do you
20:40evaluate them um are does the
20:43self-driving car need to be perfect um
20:46or does it just need to be better than
20:47the average human driver and so far the
20:50answer has been depending if it's Elon
20:53or Google right yeah that's right
20:55exactly and so yeah so so basically
20:56Tesla and and and whmo is these are
20:58great examples and these are very
20:59topical because because weo finally just
21:01got you know approval to roll out you
21:02know full robotaxi service in San
21:04Francisco you know in 2023 which is a
21:06lot further on the road than a lot of
21:07people thought um but the the the Google
21:10wh kind of philosophy this whole time
21:11has been something like it needs to be
21:13perfect um the Tesla philosophy this
21:16whole time has been it just needs to be
21:17better than than humans and Tesla has by
21:19the way Tesla has a way of measuring
21:21that which is accidents per you know per
21:23thousand miles driven basically they
21:24they when they first rolled out their
21:25self-driving capability at least what
21:27what I believe they said at the time was
21:28it's like twice as good you know there's
21:30like half as many accidents per thousand
21:32miles um you know um and then over time
21:34it's just gotten better and better and
21:35better and like you know there are still
21:37accidents but like it it now you know I
21:39don't even know what the current numbers
21:40is but it's something like five or 10
21:41times fewer accidents per you know
21:43Thousand Miles and so it's kind of
21:45vectoring towards something
21:46approximating perfect at some point in
21:48the future but like day that wasn't the
21:50requirement to like take it to Market
21:52and so to me like I I think the thing I
21:54would push on you know for you is like
21:55okay I'm watching a detective show like
21:58you know look a lot of I'll just take
21:59detective shows as an example like a lot
22:00of people love detective shows there are
22:01these long running franchise shows like
22:03Law and Order right they have you know
22:05many spin-offs um and you know a lot of
22:07people for a lot of people they're like
22:08the term they use is like it's like
22:09comfort food Television right it's like
22:10an episode of Law and Order or CSI or
22:12something at the end of a long day is
22:13like a relaxing thing it's like a little
22:15you know it's like a little Agatha
22:16Christie little puzzle box thing and
22:17it's it's fun right but yeah yeah your
22:19brain doesn't have to be fully on you
22:21know like you're watching Oppenheimer
22:24exactly right it's it's a it's it's and
22:26and and part of why it good you know by
22:29the way some other episodes are you know
22:30incredibly well crafted and so forth but
22:31like generally speaking there's a
22:32formula to it right and and they stick
22:34to the formula likey pretty closely the
22:37CBS broadcast television network was
22:38most success you know was the most
22:39successful broadcast network for a very
22:41long time because they lean the hardest
22:42into this philosophy which is you just
22:44you basically have a formula for these
22:45kinds what they call procedural shows
22:47and so if an AI can write a Law and
22:49Order script right that is basically
22:52fits into the formula and if it you know
22:54let's say it quote unquote passes the
22:55Turing test which is if I watch it I
22:58can't tell if it's written by a human or
23:00written by the machine yeah like does it
23:02still matter
23:04probably not I mean it's a little like
23:06you know musac or in if you've ever been
23:09to Europe you'll go to a like bar or
23:12restaurant and they'll have an Adell
23:14song but it won't be a Dell singing it
23:16it'll just be somebody else so they can
23:17get around the licensing and like it's
23:19fine like whatever you're in a
23:20restaurant you know you know the song
23:23you don't know the singer she can't sing
23:25as well as Adele but you know whatever
23:28um so I do think there's probably a lane
23:32for
23:34that it's uh so it'll and it'll be you
23:37know like that's one of the craziest
23:40hardest jobs are writing those things
23:42well like soap operas um which is I I
23:45would say maybe the ultimate Comfort uh
23:48entertainment um you know those writers
23:50are writing like whole hour episodes
23:53every day right uh you know for a year
23:56like so it's a great um kind of exercise
24:00but
24:01it's you know no it's not like a pure
24:04creative Endeavor and and I think that
24:06those kinds of things I could I could
24:08certainly imagine being substituted if
24:10AI got good enough right so then if you
24:12think about what it means to be a
24:13creative professional in this field and
24:15by the way I'm it's going to sound here
24:16like we're picking on Hollywood and but
24:18the same question applies to many other
24:19areas and by the way programming is
24:21already happening right like it's
24:22already happened in programming right oh
24:24I I need to write a
24:26jbdcz
24:28salesforce.com right okay a lot of that
24:31can be written by an AI that's been
24:32written before right so this kind of you
24:35know I would propose here you got to
24:37kind of turn the tur test around and you
24:38got to kind of evaluate the this let's
24:40say the typical professional programmer
24:42product manager designer Hollywood
24:44screenwriter right um by the way
24:46Hollywood graphic artist so forth right
24:48the people who have these jobs today is
24:50like okay how many of them are actually
24:52better than you know the AI that can
24:55just do kind of the the basic thing like
24:58how many Prof you know in other words
25:00like there are many professional there
25:02many professional screenwriters who
25:04would love to write another movie like
25:05The Godfather you know at least they
25:07haven't been able to so far in their
25:08careers you know just like there are a
25:09lot of programmers who would like to
25:10write the next you know big breakthrough
25:12and haven't haven't yet figured it out
25:13but like you know look they write they
25:14write great material it's just like okay
25:16at some point if the AI gets good at the
25:18formula and if the if from the audience
25:20standpoint the material is
25:21indistinguishable like what what what
25:23becomes the bar at that point for the
25:25writer and we'll get to actors in a
25:27moment but what becomes the bar for the
25:28writer to be able to continue to have a
25:30job right if there literally is the
25:31machine um that can uh you know that can
25:33sort of write the equivalent thing
25:35although this kind of can go back to the
25:37original conversation about okay now uh
25:41we have infinite distribution right um
25:44and so is then the answer
25:47become well every one of these writers
25:50who was the eighth writer on Young and
25:52the Restless is now a showrunner using a
25:55team of AIS and creating their own show
25:58and even if that show has a small
26:00audience they can get to that audience
26:02of a thousand viewers and maybe that's
26:04the job and maybe that's a better job
26:06and if they do something truly great
26:08then it'll go much much further and so
26:10you know do you get
26:12to an independent Hollywood in the same
26:16way that you've got you're getting to
26:17Independent music and is the real answer
26:21that there's just way way way more
26:24content and it's content for literally
26:26everybody and body has to complain that
26:29there's not enough whatever you know 6
26:33foot2 Jewish people in the movie or
26:35whatever the the complaint is because
26:37that's going to be out there because
26:39everybody is writing um and then you
26:41know maybe there won't be as many
26:44Blockbuster kind of massive Mega hits uh
26:48but there'll be something for everybody
26:50um so maybe it just changes the nature
26:51of the game but that's an really
26:53interesting question it's hard to I I
26:55always hesitate to say okay this is
26:57going to shrink or grow employment
26:59because it's always easy to see how it
27:00shrinks employment it's very hard to you
27:03know predict how it's going to grow
27:04employment um and this was true for
27:07computers everybody could see all the
27:09typ Setters were going away right but
27:12all the jobs that were created um was
27:14very you know like all the like the the
27:16graphics design jobs the the product
27:19management jobs like the all the jobs
27:21that you and I deal with weren't jobs
27:24before computers like they're all new
27:26jobs um but yet everybody knew every
27:29damn job that was going away as soon as
27:30the computer came out it's like oh my
27:32God we don't have that anymore and so I
27:34think that you know in the creative
27:35space that that may be similar yeah and
27:37there's this history there's this
27:39history here so that my favorite example
27:41of this um you know as you talked about
27:43the music industry earlier but like you
27:44know typically the entertainment
27:45industry has fought every new technology
27:47even even the VCR the ones that were
27:49amazing for them they they tried to kill
27:51the VCR so hard so the the VCR comes out
27:54and when the VCR comes out people don't
27:55remember what this was like at the time
27:57but this is in the early 80s and this is
27:58when the Japan was like ascendant in the
28:01like American imagination and the global
28:03economy right the same way China is now
28:06um and there was this like huge fear
28:08that like the Japanese had figured out a
28:09superior economic system and we going to
28:11take over all of technology and then
28:13Sony which at the time you know a lot of
28:14people would have said was probably you
28:16know kind of the best company in the
28:17world um the most Innovative you know
28:18company doing the most interesting
28:20things um Sony came out with a VCR um
28:23and um actually ironically yeah it's the
28:26wrong format but the but the
28:28there there was that issue but uh you
28:29know they came out with that idea and
28:31then a lot of other Japanese companies
28:32followed um and that ultimately Le you
28:34know led to VHS um and and you know
28:36things like Blockbuster um but uh when
28:38that first came out to your point like
28:40the the reaction from Hollywood was
28:42total freak out um because and basically
28:44it was it was the piracy argument it was
28:46like oh my God people are going to like
28:47record these things and then like there
28:48go reruns there you know it's the piracy
28:50is just going to kill us um and so Jack
28:53Valente who ran the big uh uh producers
28:56Guild the MPA the um yeah the MPAA uh at
29:00the time and Jack Jack Fenty was like
29:01this Legend of Washington DC where he
29:03had been like fdrs or sorry lbj's kind
29:06of main guy policy guy um and so he was
29:08like this Legend in DC and so he he goes
29:10to Capitol Hill and testifies and
29:12basically uh advocating for a law to ban
29:14the VCR um and his famous line was um
29:18the um uh the the the basically the the
29:21basically the Japanese invention of the
29:23uh uh VCR uh is to Hollywood uh what The
29:27Boston Strangler is to the woman who's
29:29home
29:32alone that's a great line so the point
29:34is like look and and again like this is
29:35not to pick on Hollywood like you know
29:37the many many Industries including the
29:38tech industry itself is kind of faced
29:39with these these questions but you do
29:41get these new technologies as you said
29:43they look like they're going to be
29:44destructive it often turns out that they
29:45actually massively expand the business
29:47like the VCR expanded VCR I think
29:49doubled the size of Hollywood right
29:51which which was already large to start
29:53with and and that led to a cornucopia of
29:55money you know that that flowed to
29:56everybody including including you know
29:57the talent but also the the studios and
30:00in fact right it's the withdrawal
30:01essentially of that that money right in
30:04the form of DVD you know that because
30:05VCR rentals turned into you know
30:07videotape rentals turned into DVD sales
30:09um it's the withdrawal of that money
30:10that's prompted the current strike so
30:12that the you know the same thing that
30:13they were scared of 30 years ago right
30:15turned out to be the thing that they
30:16they they're very sad that it's it's
30:17it's going away today you know to your
30:19point like and this is what I've been
30:20telling my friends you know like my my
30:22my Hollywood writer friends is basically
30:23like look I think there's a really good
30:24chance here that AI is a giant expansion
30:28um of the entertainment industry and I
30:29think you you gave the the perfect case
30:31study and I I'll just I'll describe it
30:32in my words which is if you're a
30:33talented screenwriter right within some
30:36number of years here short I think
30:38relatively short number of years you're
30:40going to have a tool on your laptop
30:41right that basically is is like you you
30:44work with it you you you basically write
30:46your script you know kind of with with
30:47the AI and then as you're writing your
30:49script the AI is actually generating the
30:51show or the movie right and so it's
30:53literally like rendering the thing it's
30:55doing the voices it's putting in the
30:56actors it's like like you know it's
30:58doing the scenes it's like literally
30:59generating everything and you know in in
31:01the same way that people who make music
31:02today have tools on the laptops where
31:04you know where where they do this like
31:06that's what's going to happen and so
31:07everybody with writing Talent everybody
31:09with creative Talent um is is going to
31:11be able to actually make movies on their
31:13laptops um would you agree with that
31:17yeah I think really good movies so I
31:19think that's right it kind of it's an
31:21interesting thing the most likely is
31:23it's going to shift the economic power
31:25from the distributors and the kind of
31:28the studios to the creatives um in in a
31:32really major way that probably hasn't
31:34happened you know since the kind of Rise
31:36of CAA and the kind of uh the the
31:39bargaining power that they created with
31:41h packaging and these kinds of things um
31:44that's probably the most likely it's
31:45interesting because the Hollywood
31:46structure is kind of based on you know
31:50kind of a distribution Monopoly that was
31:53deemed a monopoly which kind of
31:55separated the movie theater from the
31:57studios um and then the reaction to that
32:00the natural reaction to that was the
32:02unions The Screen Actors Guild and
32:04whatnot because you're dealing with a
32:05monopoly an oligopoly um it's the only
32:08way you can get kind of a square deal
32:10and all of those things um kind of get
32:14undermine change flipped around um by a
32:18technology that makes or two
32:20technologies one infinite distribution
32:23available to anybody basically free of
32:25charge and then secondly um the dramatic
32:30drop in the cost of production um and so
32:33if you put those two things together um
32:36I think it does kind of start to look
32:39much more like where the music industry
32:41is today because that's basically what's
32:43happened in music yeah exactly and then
32:45you've got this interesting kind of
32:46balance of power thing um on the
32:48creative side and I'll come back to the
32:49studios in a second but this interesting
32:51balance of power thing on the creative
32:52side let me let me describe how how I
32:54mean it so let's assume this is the
32:55world we're moving into where anybody
32:57who wants to is going to have a tool on
32:58their laptop for making an entire movie
33:00so in Tech world you know we we
33:01described a few minutes ago how you know
33:03there's basically these jobs like
33:05programmer and designer and product
33:06manager who come together to build a
33:07tech product and you can kind of think
33:09about them as analogous a little bit to
33:11like screenwriter actor director right
33:13for making a movie right it's like a
33:14it's like a a triangle you know kind of
33:16you know combination in Tech world the
33:19the running joke is basically that the
33:21programmers now all think they don't
33:22need designers or product managers
33:24because they think the AI can do those
33:26jobs the designers think they don't need
33:27programmers or product managers and the
33:29product managers don't think they need
33:31programmers or designers y right because
33:33each of maybe they're all right and
33:35maybe right exactly and by the way they
33:37all think they no longer need a CEO
33:38right um
33:39so also possibly correct or a venture
33:43capitalist um so so if you extend that
33:47kind of question into the Hollywood you
33:49know kind of thing and if you think
33:50again about the triangle format it's
33:52like okay if you're a screenwriter do
33:54you actually need actors and directors
33:55anymore can the AI do that by the way if
33:57you're a director do you actually need
33:59the screenwriters because if the if the
34:00AI can write the thing and so maybe the
34:02director makes a movie on his laptop and
34:03the AI writes the script by the way if
34:05you're an actor right maybe you think
34:07you're the essential element right
34:09because to your point like people are
34:10drawn to people and like it's you know
34:12it's a movie feature me and that's the
34:13draw and now I have an AI that can
34:15actually do the writing and the
34:16directing right and I just show and I
34:18show up and I show up and and do do the
34:20acting and so there's this interesting
34:21kind of three-way kind of standoff
34:24question right of of of of of ultimately
34:26where that land and and by the way again
34:28you know to your point like it's
34:29possible the answer is all of the above
34:31right it's it's possible that all of a
34:32sudden each of those points of the
34:34triangle are going to have actual total
34:36creative freedom whenever they want it
34:37because they're going to be able to have
34:38ai Partners to do those other jobs that
34:41that's certainly a real possibility I I
34:43just kind of again emphasize how
34:45unpredictable this all is in that I
34:47think in um you know before automation
34:50like if you go back all the way before
34:52automation entirely and say the
34:551700s um almost all the jobs like well
34:58over 90% of the jobs were Agriculture
35:01and none of the jobs that we have today
35:02existed and so you know I think that if
35:06you were a farmer in those days you
35:08could not possibly imagine if you
35:10automated farming right what the hell
35:12anybody would do like if you have food
35:15like is everybody building houses at
35:17that point is that the only other thing
35:18because those were the only things and
35:21so I think that you know in the creative
35:23space I think it's such a big space that
35:26the exact things yeah you may not need a
35:28key grip or a best boy or or whatever
35:31those things are I still don't know what
35:32those jobs actually are there there will
35:34be other opportunities you know
35:36hopefully much more interesting jobs I
35:38think there's uh you know there couldn't
35:40be you know a less interesting job than
35:43plowing a field um so I think uh you
35:47know I'm very optimistic in that sense
35:49so so that takes us to another scenario
35:51and and this is a goes back to a point
35:52you raised earlier which is basically
35:54people like you know basically people
35:55have a high affinity for seeing and
35:56dealing with other people so there's
35:58another possibility which is that
36:00there's going to be this complimentarity
36:01effect um where purely human created
36:03entertainment is all of a sudden going
36:05to be at a premium and let me let me and
36:06this is very paradoxical because this
36:07sounds like the opposite of everything
36:08that we've been saying but let me
36:09describe what I mean so let's let's
36:11start from history so when when when
36:14cars arrived like horses no longer were
36:16the main form of transportation on a
36:18daily basis and the horse population you
36:20know shrunk a lot but horses became a
36:22luxury good right um still and still are
36:27right the the richest Rich many rich
36:30people and their kids are like super
36:31Into Horses another example of that is
36:33in in in in clothing like the best suit
36:37right or the best pair of leather shoes
36:39is not from a machine it's from a crafts
36:41person working in a village in Italy
36:42somewhere building it the way that
36:44making it the way they made it 500 years
36:45ago right the most the most expensive
36:47men's shoes are purely handmade right
36:50and and they are they are the most
36:52expensive because they're purely
36:53handmade they're purely handmade because
36:54they are the more expensive like that's
36:55an integral part of the thing in fact
36:57right there's this thing in is I don't
36:58his name is true in women's fashion
36:59there's this thing in men's fashion
37:01where you actually the the way that you
37:03know that something is actually Superior
37:05right and costs more is that it actually
37:07has like irregular stitching because
37:08it's evidence that it was actually
37:09stitched by by a person and so you get
37:12these thing and by the way music right
37:14you could say a similar thing which is
37:15like recorded if recorded music
37:17basically is is a is a less good form of
37:19Economics for a lot of performers than
37:21it used to be you know the the the
37:23concert you know like people love going
37:24to concerts right oh the concert EC
37:26omics dwarf the streaming e economics um
37:29even even for a massive streamer like
37:31Taylor Swift you know her tour I think
37:34she was doing like I I'm trying to
37:37remember the number but just just in
37:39merchandise she was doing like a million
37:41and a half dollars a show right and then
37:43you know you've got tickets and all that
37:44kind of thing on top of that and all the
37:46knock on effects so yes yeah right like
37:49that is already in the music industry
37:51and I think like touring is is way way
37:54premium to the recording
37:57yeah and so you mentioned like the you
37:59know the other jobs like you know best
38:00way and key grip like it you know which
38:01is sort of literally the people who like
38:03physically construct stages right um and
38:05you know and sets for uh you know for
38:07for for movies that that aren't made in
38:08CGI it may be that there is this
38:11basically much more pure form of the art
38:15um where basically the promise of it
38:17actually is no this is actually all
38:18people like this has actually been
38:20crafted for you and there's actually a
38:21blockbuster version of this which is uh
38:23Christopher Nolan movies um where
38:26Christopher Nolan makes this huge point
38:28when he makes movies of having and he he
38:29famously for well for Oppenheimer was
38:31actually a case of this he said there
38:32are no forget what he I think he said
38:35there's no CGI in Oppenheimer I don't
38:36know they they might have done some
38:37background work but he said basically
38:39everything you see for blowing up the
38:40nuke yeah yeah so that all of the all of
38:43the explosions all of the um physical
38:45you know all of the all the cut scenes
38:47that he had with all of those like
38:48amazing you know kind of physical you
38:50know geometric patterns and you know all
38:52those sort of fires and everything like
38:53that was all practical like that was all
38:54real and so it may be that there's this
38:57thing on the other side right and and
38:59and you know maybe it's a bigger part of
39:00the business or smaller I don't know but
39:01it
39:02maybe I'm quite positive this will be a
39:04thing on the other side I don't know how
39:05big it will be but I'm quite positive it
39:06will be a thing which is no I'm watching
39:08a movie that's actually made the way
39:09people made movies in 1970 not the way
39:11people do it with machines and like I
39:12don't have to wonder as I'm sitting
39:13there like okay is this real is this not
39:15real like because the realness is kind
39:17of inherent uh to it yeah and so I I
39:19think there's this other side of it
39:21where that that I and I think that's
39:22going to become I think ironically like
39:23there's a good chance that becomes the
39:25premium part of the business like it may
39:27be that those become the expensive
39:28movies um and the stuff made by computer
39:30becomes the inexpensive movies that
39:32seems very correct to me I mean I think
39:34that you know AI being able to fill in
39:38the the robotic jobs very quickly um
39:42will be you know because like you can't
39:45build a better robot than a robot uh and
39:48a human can't be a better robot than a
39:50robot but for everything else I it does
39:52feel like even ultimately that's where
39:55it will land good well I feel like we be
39:57we beat this was question number one I
40:00feel like we've all right I got a
40:02two-part question for you from Tom what
40:06is the absolute worst case most
40:08dystopian scenario for Hollywood once AI
40:12becomes the norm and what is the best
40:15case most futuristic
40:18scenario okay um I hope everybody's
40:21ready for this one this is um we'll
40:23start I don't know if I am we start with
40:26the dark side um okay so here here's the
40:29dark side so the idea of create creation
40:33the idea of you know creating narratives
40:34and stories and music um right in art
40:37forms television you know movies um
40:40novels poems you know like typically
40:43when we talk about them we talk about
40:45them in you know the creative realm the
40:46literary realm uh you know the Audi
40:48visual realm you know we talk about how
40:49entertaining they are and how inspiring
40:51they are how depressing they are how
40:53horrifying they are whatever they're
40:54funny um and you know we talk about at
40:56kind of this level of of the way that we
40:58we experience them kind of
40:59consciously um but there is another
41:01level and it's it's it's it's the level
41:03of of of physiology it's a level of
41:05biology um and it's the level of
41:07neurochemistry right and so the the the
41:10you know there's there you know our mind
41:12we have a conscious experience that we
41:13describe you know with with words like
41:14you know emotions but then there's this
41:16there's this neurochemical biological
41:18component right to how we operate um you
41:21know where when we experience a
41:23sensation like happiness or fear or um
41:25you know Ang or you know laughter you
41:27know humor whatever like it's there
41:29there there are biochemical processes
41:30happening like there are there are
41:31hormones flowing and there are
41:32electrical impulses moving through the
41:34brain and there and there are areas of
41:35the brain that get specifically
41:36triggered right so the amydala for
41:38example gets triggered for uh you know
41:39for emotion processing and and then
41:41there's you know other areas that get
41:42triggered for things like stress and and
41:44you know fight ORF flight and so forth
41:46right U and and and in fact and so B
41:48basically like if you view it like from
41:49a mechanistic standpoint like what any
41:51entertainment experience is
41:54physiologically is it's basically taking
41:55the brain and the nervous system on a
41:57roller coaster ride right um and and and
42:00and so if you think about like the
42:01narrative structure of the classic you
42:03know the hero's journey or the threea
42:05structure of a movie or something like
42:06that like like basically there's this
42:08there's this P there are these narrative
42:10patterns you're composing a piece of
42:12music right there are these narrative
42:13patterns of like building tension
42:15releasing tension you know building
42:16anger you know catharsis and then you
42:19know humor formula yeah there there are
42:21formulas and the formulas aren't just
42:23aren't just intellectual creative
42:24formulas they're also literally like
42:25biopys phical formulas the same thing is
42:27true of music like music draws out
42:29emotions and feelings in us because at
42:31the biological level like it's it's
42:32triggering these kind of you know these
42:33kind of neural neural reactions and so
42:36so you know if you if you talk to people
42:38or you read the research on people who
42:39have studied this like you know we we
42:41kind of know how this works but most
42:43creative professionals I've talked to
42:44are not specifically thinking in terms
42:46of optimizing for like the biochemical
42:48experence about like literally
42:49programming our chemicals exactly
42:52whereas the machines like an AI would
42:55actually find that to be you know a
42:56relatively straightforward thing to do
42:58right and it would not be emotional
43:00about it and it wouldn't view right of
43:01course that there's anything wrong with
43:02doing this it seem if it makes the
43:04humans happy you know then then it's the
43:05right thing to do and so you could
43:08imagine AI algorithms for creating
43:10screenplays and songs that basically are
43:13essentially programming human
43:14neurochemical biology and and then the
43:16dystopian version of this is in the
43:18optimal possible state right so like
43:20basically the AI gets so good at
43:23creating entertainment um that basically
43:25program our biology so perfectly that
43:28it's like from a physical standpoint the
43:29idealized perfect version of an
43:32entertainment experience but yet has
43:33basically been you know sort of stripped
43:35of all higher
43:37aspirations um but but it would be like
43:39you know I don't know it's like it'd be
43:40like the entertainment equivalent of
43:42like eating Cheetos or something it's
43:43like it's like the ultimate engineered
43:44amazing fantastic you know food yeah
43:47nothing is more delicious than a Cheeto
43:49exactly but yet like do you really want
43:51to live in a you know and Cheetos are
43:52fine for a treat but like do you really
43:53want to live in a world in which every
43:54everybody's only eating Cheetos all the
43:56time yeah actually that's an interesting
43:58question as it gets into that idea with
44:01originality right where you know you
44:04don't actually get the same feeling from
44:06watching a movie The 177th time as you
44:08do the first time and kind of watching
44:12the same formula in a movie for the
44:14177th time I
44:17wonder you know it does make you wonder
44:19like does the sameness start to get you
44:22of the pattern so here's the the the
44:25dark here's the argument why actually so
44:27so if you watch the same movie 177 times
44:29like yeah at some point you've seen it
44:30before you kind of see all the twist and
44:31turns coming like it's not you know some
44:33movies are fun to rewatch but like you
44:35kind of know what's happening right so
44:36the the the dark version of this is what
44:38you just described though already
44:39happens um and um you know for for you
44:42know for decades Hollywood screenwriters
44:43have known that you structure
44:44screenplays and what's called a
44:45three-act format right and so it's it's
44:47basically it's a consistent format it's
44:48basically introduction and then it's
44:50basically problem and then it's
44:51basically resolution right um and it's
44:53actually inter it's like philosophically
44:55it actually Maps well right right it's
44:56the double turn right like yeah it's the
44:59first first you get into the problem and
45:01then the the second big twist right
45:03right right I read screenwriting books
45:06I'll talk about this yeah so in
45:08philosophical terms this is what it was
45:09called the dialectic um and so the
45:11dialectic is is in in philosophy of the
45:12dialectic is is thesis right you you
45:14propos an argument there's antithesis
45:16which is your propos a counter argument
45:17and then there's synthesis which is the
45:19res resolution of the two and a threea
45:21movie structure kind of you know
45:22basically works the same way you set up
45:24the situation you create tension in the
45:25situ then you resolve the situation but
45:28it actually turns out Hollywood has
45:29actually Advanced to a more detailed
45:31understanding of this in the last 20
45:32years and there's this book that has had
45:34a big impact on the entertainment
45:35industry called save the cat and it's a
45:37book on how to raise screenplays and in
45:38save the cat what he does is he goes
45:40through like 80 years of movies and he
45:41basically discovers that there's a
45:44basically in addition to within the
45:45threea format there's actually a
45:4715-point template um that basically that
45:49that like a very large percentage of the
45:51great movies follow um and so each of
45:54the he he breaks each of the three acts
45:55into five kind of points uh I think he
45:58calls the Beats right and then and
45:59basically as a consequence there's this
46:0115o basically bullet list that you can
46:04just Google and look up and it's really
46:05interesting and it's like and it turns
46:06out it's this it's the same format of
46:09plot um that is used for like you know
46:12action movies uh adventure movies horror
46:14movies romantic comedies they're all the
46:16same it turns out they're all the same
46:18um uh and then there's actually another
46:21Twist on on Turing the cat the same guy
46:23who unfortunately passed he wrote he
46:24wrote these books and then passed away
46:25was one of the kind of amazing tragic
46:27stories but uh he wrote a later book
46:29where I think he got it too I forget
46:30what it was it was like he he broke the
46:31each of the he broke it was something
46:32like he broke the 15 points down into
46:34each three sub points and so he got it
46:35to like 45 very specific points and at
46:37least in theory you can write yeah look
46:39you you write a screenplay with this
46:41what he calls the beat sheet you know
46:42against these like 15 points you're not
46:44you're not of course guaranteed to write
46:46a successful movie you're not even
46:47guaranteed to write a good movie but
46:48you're writing a movie that takes the
46:50viewer on the emotional roller coaster
46:51that we have come to accept and then it
46:53is shocking how many existing movies
46:55basically follow that that that template
46:56and so again it's it's sort of this
46:58glimpse of that there's something Primal
47:00to the experience that's not just what
47:01we think we're perceiving there's
47:02something deeper that's happening um
47:05this also gets into Yi you know so
47:06called Yi and psychology which is this
47:07idea of archetypes which I probably
47:09shouldn't go into at length but you know
47:10basically this idea that there are these
47:11basically they're these Universal
47:12stories right and they're they're
47:14they're not just intellectual creative
47:16exercises they're they're they're
47:17something very fundamental to The Human
47:19Experience and the human kind of
47:20physical being right they always work
47:23yeah that these things wire into EXA
47:24well the the hero's journey the classic
47:26example that is what's called the hero's
47:27journey uh so the hero's journey was a a
47:29yian concept basically derived from you
47:31know like ancient Greek like you know
47:33the epics and myths and then this guy
47:35Joseph Campbell kind of popularized it
47:36and then like famously like Star Wars
47:38was literally templated off of the
47:40hero's journey so the the Luke Skywalker
47:42story is is the hero's journey and then
47:45Harry Potter by the way same thing it's
47:46it's the hero's journey it follows the
47:47exact same Arc and so a lot of
47:49screenwriters who sit down to write a
47:51movie you know in kind of that mold
47:53right um you know could basically use
47:55use the hero's journey Yugi and
47:57archetype uh method uh to do that and so
48:00we we kind of we know a lot of this
48:01already we kind of use it a George Lucas
48:03uses it a little bit and so forth but
48:04like it isn't we're not program you know
48:07the process by which entertainment
48:09programs the emotional state of a human
48:10being right now involves a lot of like
48:12human creativity and like you know like
48:15a a layer of indirection the machines
48:16may just go straight to the B straight
48:19to the thing yeah yeah yeah yeah that
48:21that uh that's interesting I think Fel
48:24experimented with actually did an
48:26exercise I believe where he used um the
48:29actual kind of state-of-the-art
48:33technolog technological reading of the
48:35biology and uh wrote the song Happy uh
48:39which is a massive hit uh but I I don't
48:42know that he's he's either attempted to
48:44or or successfully repeated that kind of
48:47level of success with it but and what
48:49was it about that song like what
48:52specifically um well I think that he
48:54programmed into or he was attempting to
48:56program into like a very specific
48:58emotion um in terms of the music and so
49:00forth the song is amazing that way it
49:03works like perfectly so uh perhaps he
49:06succeeded yeah I was I was going to ask
49:08you you know you talk to a lot more
49:09musicians than I do um when they you
49:11know because songs take people in an
49:12emotional roller coaster right and they
49:14you know very specifically like you know
49:15they use different you know chord prog
49:17you know famously like in a lot of music
49:18they use different chord pord
49:20progressions to get you into different
49:21emotional states and the great musicians
49:22that you know like how how consciously
49:24do they think about like the listeners
49:27emotional roller coaster let's call it
49:29oh they're very focused
49:32on I would say expressing a feeling at
49:36the highest
49:37level of intensity possible so I think
49:41that you know if you're a a musical
49:45artist you want you're really going for
49:47a feeling you know much more so like
49:50like if you're writing a book you
49:52sometimes go for a feeling you're
49:54sometimes going for like an idea or
49:55convincing somebody at a logic or it but
49:57like in music I think at least the the
50:00the truly great
50:01musicians can make you feel a certain
50:04way and you know like sometimes with an
50:06almost like a novel feeling um that you
50:09you like wow I never felt this way
50:11before and so I think that and of course
50:13there's whole genres designed around
50:15like the blues was designed around like
50:17a very specific feeling uh so I think
50:20that's a big part of it our friend venod
50:22kosla I think had a tweet that got him
50:24in a lot of trouble where he said like
50:26you know there wouldn't be any more uh
50:28human musicians because the AI would
50:30just program whatever feeling however
50:32you want to feel they just program it
50:33for you um so he kind of got right to
50:36this idea uh I think he probably regrets
50:39tweeting that um but you know there
50:41there was a point to it you know there's
50:44this canid I just had an experience like
50:45this with music this is kind of a funny
50:47story but um there's this candidate
50:48running for president of Ecuador right
50:50now who's a former French Foreign Legion
50:52sniper special forces guy um and um he
50:56has been uh taking a helic combat
50:58helicopter into um campaign stops and he
51:01plays the theme music for Top Gun
51:02through the
51:03loudspeakers yeah a certain feeling and
51:06I hadn't listened to that I I mean I I
51:08you know I've seen the Top Gun movies
51:09but I hadn't listened to the music in a
51:10long time so I went on YouTube and I
51:11pulled it up and if you haven't heard it
51:12recently the theme music from Top Gun
51:14like the hair in the back at least in my
51:16case the hair in the back of my net goes
51:17straight up right and I can literally
51:20feel like the emotion coming out right
51:22and it's just it's like all you know
51:24it's all the Patriot it's all the
51:25patriotism and then it's linked to you
51:26know when you saw the movie in your
51:27childhood and like it like all this like
51:30like it's like you're it's like a it's a
51:31physical rush like it's really something
51:34yeah you know it's funny so side note um
51:38when Top Gun came out I like for
51:42whatever reason I was probably 18 years
51:44old and I had uh lunch with Oliver Stone
51:48who was
51:49absolutely Furious about that movie
51:52because he's like it's so powerful and
51:55it's get going to get people to sign up
51:57for the military like I did he
51:59signed up for the military and they're
52:01going to be like rudely awakened it's
52:03nothing like Top Gun and then he made
52:05platoon right which is like the opposite
52:08of top the opposite of Top Gun yeah CU
52:10he he actually it's an interesting story
52:11so Oliver Stone F he fought in Vietnam
52:13right yeah yeah yeah that's what platoon
52:15is about it's basically his he's Charlie
52:17Sheen he is the Charlie Sheen character
52:19right so so he knew and he had a
52:21particular view coming out of that um
52:22and then we we know people you and I
52:24know people who actually did sign up for
52:25the military dud Top Gun right I won't
52:27name names but I think we one of person
52:29who works us yes became became I think
52:31an aviator right as a consequent Marine
52:33Aviator as a consequence of that movie
52:34right um and so like that you know that
52:36that that's powerful Stone was right
52:40right yeah yeah yeah know he's right I
52:41mean well like and I think this is gets
52:44into like a little bit of the of an
52:46interesting aspect of AI is um humans
52:50are programmable through words through
52:52music through stories um like clearly
52:56programmable and uh you know that's what
52:58a lot of politics is about and so forth
53:01and so now you have
53:03potentially and this is where a lot of I
53:05think the push back on social media has
53:07come from it's like wow here's this big
53:09new tool for programming all the humans
53:12um and you know if you apply like the
53:14next layer of technology to it so yeah
53:17and by the way just to close one Loop um
53:19for people who interested in this topic
53:20so this concept this book called save
53:22the cat is a is a very good book but
53:23also um one of the you can do with like
53:26gp4 you know with like chat GPT or with
53:28um whatever you know Bing Bing chat or
53:30whatever um you can actually use it it
53:32will write you screenplays today and and
53:34what you can do you can just tell it
53:35write me a screenplay about you know the
53:36Vietnam War and it will do that and it
53:38will you know it'll it'll start by just
53:39giving you like a generic you know
53:41probably Vietnam War Story uh in a
53:42generic screenplay format but you can
53:44you can also specifically say write me a
53:46screenplay in the using the format of
53:47save the cap of course it knows what
53:49save the cat is and it knows what the
53:50what the what the what that framework
53:52and structure are um and so it will
53:54literally write you a properly
53:55constructed Nar 15o you know save the
53:57cat narrative on whatever topic you want
54:00um and so it it actually like has the
54:02capability to do what we're describing
54:04like for screenplays like it actually
54:05has that capability now you know this
54:07raises a lot of the issues that are you
54:08know kind of the coming up in the strike
54:10and so forth about whether you know that
54:11should be allowed and who gets credit
54:13and whatever but like technically
54:14practically like it can actually do this
54:17um and so anyway it's it's a fun thing
54:18if you want to if you want to play
54:19screenwriter at night um it actually
54:21gets to be pretty interesting in what
54:22it's capable of doing welcome back after
54:24a monthlong coffee break Mark and I are
54:27back to uh continue the show um and uh
54:31so in the intervening coffee break the
54:34writer strike ended so congratulations
54:38to everybody in Hollywood on both sides
54:41amazing that people get to go back to
54:43work uh doing what they love to do so
54:46that's nothing but good news um so uh
54:50when we left off last uh Mark if you
54:53might continue on the utopian
54:57scenario uh which is the scenario we all
54:59love about how AI is going to change
55:02Hollywood yeah so the utopian scenario
55:04is that basically AI is an enabling
55:06technology for a level of creativity um
55:10and also a level of output so I would
55:12say both uh quality and quantity uh but
55:15a level of creativity and output uh from
55:17you know entertainment professionals
55:19creative professionals you know just
55:20like Lighty years Beyond um you know
55:23what's been possible so far and by the
55:24way look like the history of Hollywood
55:25is actually the history of new
55:27technologies making new new new forms of
55:29of art possible right so you know going
55:31going back originally to just like the
55:32you know the introduction of uh of of C
55:34you know cameras like movie cameras all
55:37of a sudden you could film stage plays
55:38and then that became you know modern
55:39cinematography and um and um and film
55:42making um and then you know look a and
55:45movies and plays are certainly better
55:46than plays you know although many people
55:49didn't like the idea of movies but well
55:52plays are still yeah I mean look plays
55:53are still a thing and you know in a lot
55:54of ways plays are more popular than ever
55:56um you know at least in some places but
55:59um you know look you know movies really
56:01movies number one just made plays
56:02available to a lot more people but then
56:04also you know movies you know film film
56:06there's things not possible on film
56:07obviously that are are just not possible
56:09on a on on a stage um and so you know
56:11look the history of Hollywood is
56:12actually a it's actually a pretty
56:14utopian story you know it's and it's
56:16funny it doesn't feel that way because
56:17like each new wave of technology has
56:19been greeted by lots of anxiety uh and
56:21then sometimes sometimes anger or rage
56:24um but but um you know it's all paid off
56:26uh and not just economically but it's
56:28paid off in terms of its creative
56:29potential um and so look the the utopian
56:31thing here is just like just start start
56:33like this which is like what if you took
56:35the best filmmakers in the world the
56:37best directors the best writers the best
56:38best actors and you just gave them a set
56:40of tools that all of a sudden let them
56:41project themselves creatively you know
56:43to to to a whole new level and so you
56:45know and I'm sure this is already
56:46happening I mean like whether people say
56:48admit to it or not you know if you're if
56:49you're writing a screen you know if
56:50you're going back to work as a writer
56:51and you're writing a screenplay right
56:53now like you're almost certainly going
56:54to be in in an interative loop with a
56:56you know with a chatbot um you know as
56:57you you know for as you work on your
56:59your screenplay you know if only to do
57:01research you know and then maybe
57:02brainstorming and in look I actually
57:05think like search uh search engines like
57:07Google had a had a uh had a had an
57:09impact on on actually the quality of
57:10screenplays which is you know like it's
57:13a lot easier to write a screenplay that
57:14has like a lot of factual grounding in
57:15the real world you know set in some
57:17industry or around some technology or
57:18something right because you can just get
57:20access to all the information on Google
57:21or on Wikipedia and so so C GPT and
57:23these systems are are a big step up like
57:25that you know look if you're a you know
57:27if you're a if you're a um you if you're
57:29a you know if you're director all of a
57:31sudden you can start to do render you
57:32can start to do storyboarding um you
57:34know in a much more accelerated way um
57:36you know look if you're an actor you
57:37know quite frankly you can start to you
57:39know take control of your own material
57:40better and you can maybe start to uh you
57:42know do renderings of yourself you can
57:43start to you know do shorts you know
57:45yourself you can start to you know make
57:47easier maybe if you want to work on a
57:48screenplay makes it easier to work on
57:49screenplay so so take the take take the
57:52best creative Professionals in the field
57:53and give them kind of the superpowers
57:55and the question I always want to ask is
57:56like okay if you gave these tools to
57:58Stephen Spielberg and like really
57:59Unleashed him you know could he make you
58:01know twice as many movies you know five
58:03times 10 times um you know would they be
58:06twice as good five times as good you
58:09know like all of our great filmmakers
58:11are gated by literally like hours in the
58:13day right like there you know Martin
58:15sces is only going to make so many
58:16movies in his life um and if he could
58:18make movies twice as fast um you know he
58:20could make twice as many so like the
58:22utopian scenario here is like this is a
58:24to kit for the creative community that
58:26is going to make things possible that at
58:28a level of quality and quantity that
58:30were just never even conceivable before
58:32yeah you know one of one of the things
58:34along those lines that I've been
58:35thinking about is that you know some of
58:38the movies and TV shows that we love the
58:40most are the ones that create these
58:43amazingly intricate worlds like Game of
58:45Thrones or Star Wars or pick a
58:49Christopher Nolan movie um
58:52and nothing would help that more than Ai
58:55and that it would kind of help you
58:58create kind of a richer and richer and
59:00deeper experience which would uh
59:02certainly enhance the viewing experience
59:04particularly if you like to watch things
59:06four or five times yeah well you know
59:08there's always been this challenge one
59:10of the little fun facts of uh of Star
59:12Wars which I find very entertaining is
59:14um uh George LC apparent the way The
59:16Story Goes is uh I heard the story from
59:18people kind of close close to the
59:19situation as they say it may be public
59:21but but but I've heard it um which
59:23basically is um the the idea that Luke
59:26and Leia were sisters was like not in
59:27the original screenplay oh wow right um
59:30and there there's the famous I if you
59:32remember there's the famous kiss there's
59:33a point where luuka lay a kiss um and if
59:35you watch it today you're like wow he's
59:37kissing his sister like at the time
59:38apparently that was filled like they
59:39George Lucas hadn't didn't know yet that
59:41they were like brother and sister and
59:43apparently and apparently there was a
59:44queue in the original score there was a
59:46John Williams originally composed a Luc
59:48and Le Love Theme uh for the musical
59:52score and then apparently also they he
59:53didn't hadn't decided that Darth Vader
59:55was going to be Luke's father and so
59:57they they kind of they kind of backed
59:58into that right um
01:00:00anyway the Darth Vader as his father is
01:00:03even kind of more remarkable that he
01:00:05didn't know that because it's kind of
01:00:06the uh this classic narrative Arc of um
01:00:11you know kind of not wanting to be your
01:00:13father and then being your father and
01:00:16all that kind of thing confronting your
01:00:18father well if you remember at the
01:00:20exactly but if you remember at the
01:00:21beginning of Star Wars another thing
01:00:22that reads differently now that you know
01:00:24that is that in the beginning of Star
01:00:25Wars remember they the the Empire
01:00:26captures Leia and then Darth Vader
01:00:28tortures
01:00:29Leia yeah which he probably went to if
01:00:32that was his daughter torturing his own
01:00:33daughter
01:00:35right so like yeah so there's these
01:00:37things and anyway what's the point of it
01:00:39is like look like George Luke if you
01:00:40read like the making of Star Wars like
01:00:41George Lucas put an enormous amount of
01:00:43time and attention into developing the
01:00:44script and the dialogue and if you go
01:00:46back and reconstruct like how hard he
01:00:47worked on Star Wars and how you know
01:00:49incredible it was when it came out and
01:00:50so forth like you know that was a
01:00:52creative exercise to the actually so I
01:00:54do have a story on that from uh his his
01:00:56wife Melody Hobson which is apparently
01:01:00every character in there there's an
01:01:02entire like book that he's written on
01:01:05them that that's in his uh in his office
01:01:08so he has just like books and books and
01:01:09books on like even the most minor
01:01:11characters are massively developed and
01:01:13so what you have there is you have a you
01:01:15know a top tier creative professional
01:01:17operating at the outer limits of just
01:01:19Standalone human ability right like one
01:01:21one man's ability to create and then
01:01:22keep everything organized and even with
01:01:25that you know Luke's kissing his sister
01:01:26and it's like oops right and so right so
01:01:29anyway to your point you know you give a
01:01:31World Builder a set of tools that let
01:01:33them track all this and elaborate on all
01:01:35this and brainstorm on all this and
01:01:37exactly to your point you know the the
01:01:39the worlds that they should be able to
01:01:40build should be like light years Beyond
01:01:42what's been possible now just simply
01:01:43because you're giving the best creators
01:01:45much more extensive intellectual
01:01:46scaffolding um and and augmentation that
01:01:49just that that that they've never had
01:01:51yeah you know I was just thinking about
01:01:53that as a writer myself if I had had the
01:01:55ability to ask the system about my own
01:01:59book that would have been very useful
01:02:02you know because you do it's hard to
01:02:04remember every single thing that you've
01:02:06written and how it all fits together and
01:02:08and what might contradict you know each
01:02:10other and and you know whether or not
01:02:12you reconcile those things is very
01:02:14interesting it's interesting he he
01:02:16didn't quite reconcile the fact that um
01:02:19you know Darth Vader was his father with
01:02:21Darth Vader torturing Princess Leah
01:02:24exactly well let me give you another
01:02:25another another use case another another
01:02:27thing that might work so um another
01:02:29benefit so you know brainstorming so
01:02:30everybody's like well you know we don't
01:02:31want you know you don't want you know
01:02:33you don't want maybe you know chat GPT
01:02:35writing you know writing the script
01:02:36itself you know whatever but uh one of
01:02:38my you know one of my f one of the best
01:02:40obviously shows ever made and one of my
01:02:41favorites is Mad Men um and one of the
01:02:44things right and one of the things that
01:02:45made that's a single writer show isn't
01:02:48it well he had a writer's so it's one of
01:02:50those shows where he had a writer's room
01:02:52but you know he probably ended up
01:02:54writing the scripts himself like at the
01:02:56end of it or rewriting them all because
01:02:58it had such a sort of consistent you
01:02:59know Vision with with such a yeah very
01:03:01meticulous feel yeah but one of the
01:03:04things that he talks about one so one of
01:03:06the things that really jumped out from
01:03:07medmen is like how many like how many
01:03:09times the viewer expectations were
01:03:10subverted like one one of the things
01:03:12that made the show really special was
01:03:13you never actually quite knew what would
01:03:14happen and they kept like surprising you
01:03:16with all these different angles you
01:03:17hadn't thought of and I read an
01:03:18interview with mat Matt Weiner who who
01:03:20who ran it one time and he said the rule
01:03:22in the if I recall this correctly he
01:03:23said the rule in the Mad Men mad Madmen
01:03:25writing room was whenever the question
01:03:27was what happens next um what they would
01:03:30do is they would write down the five the
01:03:32the first five ideas for the next thing
01:03:34in the plot um on a board and then they
01:03:36would cross them all
01:03:39off and then they would and then they
01:03:41would come up with something right ah
01:03:44and so as a result all of the obvious
01:03:45idea it never did the obvious thing
01:03:47right it was always subverting your
01:03:49expectations it was always forcing the
01:03:50writers to go out on the edge right into
01:03:52into into a creative realm that they
01:03:54would not have otherwise gotten to right
01:03:56um and so like and and so like the level
01:03:59of discipline and effort required to
01:04:01like write five Throw Way ideas you know
01:04:03which by the way might also be very good
01:04:05ideas but to like construct five like
01:04:07ideas that might qualify for a you know
01:04:09top tier Hollywood screenplay and then
01:04:10throw them out to get to the sixth one
01:04:12like you know that's serious work um
01:04:15that's tremendous amount of work and
01:04:17clearly work that most writers do not
01:04:19put in currently right exactly right
01:04:22exactly but like all of a sudden which
01:04:23CH G will happily do that for you yeah
01:04:26right so it's like you create many
01:04:28scenarios and by the way would be very
01:04:30good at creating the most obvious
01:04:31scenarios right exactly and then you
01:04:33just basically have chat GPT list those
01:04:35out and then you just strike all those
01:04:36out right um and so yeah I think there's
01:04:39a level of um oh I'll give you one more
01:04:42one more that's very interesting thing
01:04:43if Chad GPT can write it you know
01:04:46without you prompting it not to write
01:04:48something obvious then you shouldn't use
01:04:50it exactly right you should set yeah
01:04:52right exactly you should set a higher
01:04:53bar for yourself
01:04:55right um I'll give you one more I'll
01:04:56give you one more use case that I use as
01:04:58a writer like and and I think it's just
01:05:00like writer's block right so writer
01:05:01always have writer block if you read all
01:05:03like the books on writer Block it's
01:05:04always like they have all these things
01:05:06because it's like anxiety about getting
01:05:07started right and so they're like a lot
01:05:09of conventional advice for getting past
01:05:10writers block is you always stop writing
01:05:12at a point where you know the next two
01:05:13sentences right so you're always able to
01:05:15pick up pick up and run with it but
01:05:16people have a hard time holding to that
01:05:18because it's you know it's frustrating
01:05:19to walk away when you're in the middle
01:05:20of flow but like a way a way to like use
01:05:22cedia circum fat writers block is just
01:05:24literally like okay have it just like
01:05:26give you brain have it brainstorm in the
01:05:28first five minutes of the new session
01:05:29you know give me you know give me 20
01:05:31ideas on how to start from here yeah you
01:05:34know it's funny because as an editor I
01:05:36mean you know we we do this at at work
01:05:40often where you know somebody will be
01:05:42writing an idea or presentation or
01:05:43whatever I always
01:05:45find at some point it's actually very
01:05:47good creative input for me to just go
01:05:49like don't do it that way like let me
01:05:51rewrite the narrative and and I imagine
01:05:54AI would be really really good at that
01:05:57yep exactly so very good so look I think
01:06:01this is like you know this is like a
01:06:02swis you know this you know these
01:06:03systems and all the all the all the
01:06:05variations that are coming up uh you
01:06:06know the capabilities that are going to
01:06:07become available over the next few years
01:06:09including you know rendering video you
01:06:10know we're going to get to the point now
01:06:12where like for example an actor an actor
01:06:14is going to be able to do a scan of
01:06:15their face and body and they're going to
01:06:16be able to insert it into a 3D
01:06:17environment and they're going to be able
01:06:19to have you know the machine write a
01:06:20script and animate a movie you know
01:06:21starring themselves you know they're
01:06:24going to be able to do you know even if
01:06:25it's an actor who doesn't have any
01:06:26writing abilities or director abilities
01:06:28like they'll be able to feature
01:06:29themselves as an actor you know
01:06:31basically in like in in sort of projects
01:06:32to demonstrate what they can do you know
01:06:34directors are going to be able to you
01:06:36know composite you know movie you're
01:06:37going to be able to pre-render an entire
01:06:39movie ahead of time on your laptop so
01:06:41that by the time you show up and you're
01:06:42pitching the studio and trying to raise
01:06:43the money to film the real thing like
01:06:45you literally already have a version of
01:06:46it that's like already made ah right
01:06:49right yeah right and so the the these
01:06:51tools are going to be like so this is
01:06:53the thing I think people are going I
01:06:54think these tools are going to be so
01:06:55powerful in the hands of the people who
01:06:57are the best at what they do right and
01:06:59then on top of that these tools are also
01:07:01going to be profoundly good at making
01:07:03people who are only okay or people who
01:07:05are only inexperienced uh who haven't
01:07:07yet done the full thing yet and and and
01:07:09they're going to make also all those
01:07:10people potentially much better and and
01:07:12so you know to to for example to get you
01:07:13up the experience curve much faster like
01:07:16film students as an example film
01:07:17students are going to be operating at
01:07:18the atomic unit of making their own
01:07:20movies in film school all the way
01:07:22through you know full 2our production
01:07:24right including visual effects and
01:07:25everything in a way that's just that
01:07:27just has not been practical up until now
01:07:29and they're going to be able to
01:07:30demonstrate what they can do yeah you
01:07:32know that's a really interesting concept
01:07:34because I think we we've kind of
01:07:36traversed that in music to a large
01:07:38degree and that you know if you go back
01:07:39to kind of classical music and
01:07:42orchestras you needed like a whole set
01:07:44of virtuosos to um you you know to to
01:07:49compose a piece or to to kind of render
01:07:51the piece completely and then you know
01:07:53over years with kind of simpler ideas
01:07:57and um electronic tools and these kinds
01:08:00of things so many more people have been
01:08:02able to enter the creative game than
01:08:04could have ever like written an
01:08:06orchestra like there's just no like
01:08:09chance um that you could even assemble
01:08:12the people like you'd have to get to the
01:08:14status of where you could orchestrate
01:08:16the thing and then bring in like a
01:08:18genius violinist and and you know
01:08:20whatever tiany and all these things so
01:08:23that's uh you know it certainly opens
01:08:25the aperture for creativity quite a bit
01:08:28Yeah there's this very entertaining uh
01:08:30genre of music on YouTube uh called epic
01:08:33um and it's people who literally just on
01:08:35their laptops are using the current
01:08:36production tools um and they're doing
01:08:38kind the inspiration for epic music is
01:08:40it's like the music in movie trailers
01:08:41like so it's the movie it's like super
01:08:44cinematic visual type sounds yeah yeah
01:08:47exactly but like there's people on
01:08:48YouTube that have like three four five
01:08:49hour like epic you know kind of things
01:08:51playing out giant battles like all the
01:08:53all this stuff and it's it's it's like
01:08:55literally a person on a laptop but the
01:08:57to your point the music tools are so
01:08:59good already that you can do a full
01:09:01Orchestra and a full
01:09:03choir amazing right completely
01:09:06synthetically in a way that sounds you
01:09:07know absolutely spectacular right uh you
01:09:09know like you know had Beethoven had
01:09:12that tool right you know what you know
01:09:14what could he have done right um or you
01:09:16know or all the all all the people who
01:09:17wanted to be who wanted to be Beethoven
01:09:19yeah he certainly would made a lot more
01:09:21songs question about that
01:09:24yeah yeah well it's just yeah it's it's
01:09:25really amazing actually if if you're
01:09:26into classical music it's amazing to wa
01:09:28it's amazing to like look at a
01:09:29manuscript of like how those guys compos
01:09:31because you know they're composing for
01:09:32like a giant Orchestra or something and
01:09:34it's like you know did you know did did
01:09:36they ever you know in those days did
01:09:37they ever even really hear a top flight
01:09:39performance of their own compositions
01:09:41like did they ever actually get you know
01:09:43like how many orchestral you know how
01:09:45many how many people in the era of like
01:09:46Beethoven and and brahs and so forth
01:09:48actually ever got their Works performed
01:09:50like the Berlin philarmonic yeah right
01:09:52and so like a lot of those guys never
01:09:53actually heard their compositions played
01:09:55in a proper way yeah um and so it's the
01:09:59same thing here right it's just you know
01:10:00most most people uh you know most you
01:10:01know look most look oh look most people
01:10:03who write a Hollywood screenplay Never
01:10:04See It produced yeah yeah they never see
01:10:07it on screen right and now all of a
01:10:08sudden like all of those screenplays
01:10:10could be produced right uh and turned
01:10:12into you know not maybe not a movie
01:10:13that's commercially viable but a but a
01:10:14version of it where you could actually
01:10:16sit and watch it as opposed to just
01:10:17reading it and and then have that be
01:10:19fuel for the creative process yeah well
01:10:21actually it reminds me of that there's
01:10:23this great scene in um the Quincy Jones
01:10:26documentary where Frank Sinatra is
01:10:29talking about Quincy Jones and he says
01:10:32you know the I knew he was like the
01:10:34greatest I'd work with because I gave
01:10:37him like this Sheep music and said you
01:10:41know the arrangement is you know it's
01:10:43too light here I need it to be different
01:10:44here and so forth and he just literally
01:10:46took out another piece of paper
01:10:48rearranged the thing in front of me and
01:10:49handed it back he said he's the only guy
01:10:51who could do that and so right so the
01:10:54only way Frank Sona could get the song
01:10:56he wanted was to like work with one guy
01:10:58in the history of music who could do
01:11:00that thing um but as the tools
01:11:03progressed I don't think anybody you
01:11:05know takes a piece of sheet music and
01:11:06rearranges it anymore you know that
01:11:09there are easier ways to do it h and
01:11:11that kind of opens up a lot of
01:11:13possibilities yep exactly so so anyway
01:11:16so to wrap a B on this like yeah just
01:11:18like creative fuel um you know you know
01:11:21what I like to call augmentation like an
01:11:22augmentation into the creative
01:11:24capabilities including and maybe
01:11:26especially the creative capabilities of
01:11:27the very best creators right and then
01:11:30giving them a level of superpower and
01:11:32and giving them a level of
01:11:33expressiveness and giving them you know
01:11:34not just you an upgrade to the quality
01:11:36of the work that they do but to the
01:11:37speed with which they can do it um I
01:11:39think I think it's it's probably greatly
01:11:40underestimated right now yeah no no for
01:11:43sure for sure yeah you know it's one of
01:11:45those things when you do something a
01:11:46certain way you don't realize how
01:11:49difficult it is um and then you get you
01:11:51get a new tool and everything changes
01:11:53and look that there's always positives
01:11:55and negatives like a necessarily slow
01:11:59process has some things to it you know
01:12:01having written on a typewriter you know
01:12:03written by hand written on a typewriter
01:12:05with white out written on a word
01:12:07processor like they're all different
01:12:08processes so you do get some benefits
01:12:10but generally the better tool is the
01:12:12better tool well and and I I would just
01:12:14say was almost nobody ever goes back
01:12:16right nobody goes well there there are
01:12:18like a few people like a manual few
01:12:21people won't even use like an electric
01:12:23typewriter right they've got some crazy
01:12:24manual thing but that's more like a
01:12:26personal psychological issue I think
01:12:29right but almost nobody like I said it's
01:12:32the exceptions are so rare that you
01:12:33actually know who they
01:12:34are no exactly exactly it's kind of a
01:12:37thing it's a character in a movie who
01:12:39does that probably more than an actual
01:12:41real person moving on uh we have a
01:12:44question from I don't think this is real
01:12:47name
01:12:48adult a d o l t um and adult asks what
01:12:54do you think is the biggest argument for
01:12:56quote saving Hollywood and I could start
01:12:58with that or would you like to start why
01:13:00don't you start I have go ahead yeah
01:13:02start I I would say it's one of the
01:13:05great assets of the United States so if
01:13:07you love America um you should probably
01:13:10love Hollywood in the sense that you
01:13:13know it's been the vehicle that we've
01:13:15had for exporting our culture our values
01:13:19our way of life um and if you like those
01:13:22things you know if you live here and and
01:13:24you like those things that's an amazing
01:13:26kind of uh an amazing industry and you
01:13:29know amazingly uh positive for the
01:13:32country you know it's kind of a weird
01:13:34question in that sense at least to me in
01:13:36that uh you kind of you know as a
01:13:39country why wouldn't you want to be a
01:13:40cultural Force if you liked uh the
01:13:43country that you lived in and um you
01:13:46know it kind of gets to this question of
01:13:49uh you know okay what culture do you
01:13:51amplify and obviously you know Hollywood
01:13:53won't amplify every aspect of America or
01:13:56maybe not all the points you love and
01:13:58maybe amplify some of the things you
01:13:59don't like but you know net net it's you
01:14:02know this is who we are and uh you know
01:14:05having the the greatest creatives in the
01:14:08world um right here with us telling our
01:14:11story is pretty amazing yeah well we
01:14:14both have friends um we both have
01:14:16friends who grew up behind the Iron
01:14:17Curtain uh during the Cold War maybe I
01:14:19you have some stories in particular but
01:14:21like the yeah
01:14:23right what was let me what was what was
01:14:26the what was the impact of American
01:14:28entertainment um when with respect to
01:14:31the respect specifically to the cold war
01:14:32with the Soviet Union yes well let me
01:14:35let me give you one example so my friend
01:14:37uh Christian gor grew up in um in
01:14:41communist Romania under chesu uh and uh
01:14:47the basically you know that environment
01:14:50was so repressive um
01:14:54that uh you know they would do things
01:14:56like they'd come in to your house at
01:14:591:00 in the morning uh to check your
01:15:01power meter and look for like if you had
01:15:04any like albums or you know videos or
01:15:07anything imported from the US and uh you
01:15:10know and it's just like communism I
01:15:12think people don't people this communist
01:15:15fantasy we kind of cover this a little
01:15:17on the last podcast but like communist
01:15:19reality if you ever want to know what
01:15:21communism is really like just talk to
01:15:22somebody lived in it um and one of my
01:15:24favorite stories he has is they you know
01:15:27they wanted to get a um a color
01:15:29television set you know long after color
01:15:31TVs came out and they went to this place
01:15:35called the department of the betterment
01:15:37of the people which decided whether you
01:15:39would get a color TV and they basically
01:15:42lectured him for three hours while he
01:15:43can have one but anyhow uh the thing
01:15:46that changed his life and um actually
01:15:49caused him to escape was uh he was
01:15:52bootlegging
01:15:53um he was bootlegging albums and films
01:15:57uh and one of the albums he listened to
01:15:59was Pink Floyd's The Wall and then one
01:16:01of the films he saw was Rainman and the
01:16:04thing that I remember about Rainman that
01:16:06he said is you know that the Las Vegas
01:16:08scene just blew his mind that there was
01:16:10something like that because uh you one
01:16:12of the things in communist countries
01:16:14that you uh experience is everything is
01:16:16gray they they don't even the clothes
01:16:19they they don't come out with colorful
01:16:20clothes because why like you know there
01:16:22there's no reason to there's no economic
01:16:24thing to do anything that looks good or
01:16:26this or that or the other there there's
01:16:28like literally creativity is completely
01:16:30suppressed you know even even in the
01:16:33kind of most basic fashion ideas like
01:16:35colors uh which also also goes back to
01:16:38the medich time when the the Communists
01:16:41of those times outlawed color like just
01:16:43flat out outlawed it uh but you know
01:16:45when he saw the Vegas scene it was just
01:16:47so spectacular and everybody in
01:16:50communist Romania was saying well that
01:16:53was fake they just created a fake City
01:16:55for the movie that there's no way that
01:16:56place really exists it was just so
01:16:59unbelievable and you know somehow he got
01:17:01to the conclusion that no Las Vegas did
01:17:04exist and that was a real place um and
01:17:08he he actually escaped uh escaped
01:17:10Romania by swimming across the danu
01:17:12river um which is just like a what a
01:17:15crazy unbelievable story that was um but
01:17:19but his his knowledge of what was on the
01:17:21other side of the river was from quite
01:17:23literally Hollywood from Hollywood yeah
01:17:25yeah know Hollywood Hollywood kind of I
01:17:27would say give him a new life a free
01:17:29life um which you know he he would never
01:17:31have had at the same time in the same
01:17:32way and then you know you could say look
01:17:34that's all in the past but you could
01:17:36also take a different you could also
01:17:37broaden this argument out and you could
01:17:38say look like every culture including
01:17:40ours like has some level of repression
01:17:41going on right like you know we we live
01:17:45in a hard time there is certainly a long
01:17:48list of things that you uh both uh have
01:17:51to say that you don't believe and things
01:17:52that you believe that you can't say we
01:17:54have we have our own kind of repression
01:17:55my my my Chinese friends you know
01:17:57because it's you know it's always you
01:17:58know today it's like the equivalent of
01:17:59the USSR people talk about is you know
01:18:01communist China and there's all these
01:18:02things you can't say and my Chinese
01:18:03friends always are excited to point out
01:18:04all the things that I can't say despite
01:18:05the fact that apparently I I allegedly
01:18:08live in a free Society yeah you can say
01:18:11them just not out loud ex exactly you
01:18:14want to make sure the door is closed the
01:18:15window shades are drawn and so um and
01:18:18and you know look this is always the
01:18:19case like every society has some set you
01:18:21know there's some set of rules like
01:18:22there's some set of you know kind of
01:18:23assumptions rules there some enforcement
01:18:25you know for the norms and then there's
01:18:26there's the role you know it's the role
01:18:28of the gesture right like you know in in
01:18:29the Medieval Era it was the role of the
01:18:31Court Jester uh and the Court Jester the
01:18:33role of the Court Jester you know was in
01:18:35two parts one was to entertain the court
01:18:36but the other was the Court Jester was
01:18:38the person who could say things that
01:18:39nobody else could say and you kind right
01:18:41and you could kind of you could kind of
01:18:43couch it as like you know he's a gesture
01:18:44so he's joking right but it's like you
01:18:46know he's joking haha not really not
01:18:49really right and so you know cult
01:18:53subversion of cultural norms right for
01:18:55by the way For Better or For Worse but
01:18:57like subversion of cultural norms you
01:18:59know basically happens through
01:19:00entertainment right um uh and and you
01:19:02know it happens through people who are
01:19:03able to like paint pictures of realities
01:19:05that like don't actually exist and are
01:19:07able to tell stories that aren't like
01:19:08literally true like that that you you
01:19:10basically cultures basically encode you
01:19:12know basically all of their all of their
01:19:14new messages and all their counter
01:19:15arguments to the status quo you know
01:19:16kind of in these stories and so if you
01:19:18if you if you don't have that process um
01:19:22then you know it would be very easy to
01:19:23fall into a process of cultural
01:19:25stagnation um and repression um and if
01:19:27you do have that process you know the
01:19:29culture necessarily will stay will stay
01:19:31vital and and and interesting I mean you
01:19:32know look say like Dave Chappelle you
01:19:34know would maybe be like say today's
01:19:36Court gers are the ones who are freeing
01:19:38us from some of these uh repressive
01:19:41forces right one of the things you and I
01:19:43I know you've been to more shows than I
01:19:44have but you and I went to a Dave
01:19:46Chappelle Show uh years ago and the you
01:19:49know in addition to like he's just like
01:19:50super funny and so you just find
01:19:51yourself like laughing you know
01:19:52controllably because he's so funny but
01:19:54the other thing that I always find so
01:19:55fascinating about him or I'm sure Chris
01:19:57Rock's shows are like this too is like
01:19:59they'll say you know they'll say things
01:20:01that you're not supposed to say um right
01:20:04and then the feeling in the audience is
01:20:07like this overwhelming group
01:20:10relief yeah right like wow great you
01:20:13said it well it's like lancing a boil or
01:20:15something right it's like oh my God
01:20:18finally you see I always enjoy this when
01:20:21you see the concert videos of some of
01:20:22these things which is the the you know
01:20:24like when Chapelle does his his specials
01:20:26it'll pan he'll say something he'll say
01:20:28something that normal people are not
01:20:29allowed to say uh regular people are not
01:20:31allowed to say and then they'll Pan the
01:20:33the the audience and the audience the
01:20:34look on the audience face will just be
01:20:36like naked relief it'll just be like oh
01:20:38thank God yeah right and everybody's
01:20:40laughing and everybody knows what what
01:20:42he said is true and everybody thinks
01:20:44that you know thinks that it's amazing
01:20:45that he said it and everybody's laughing
01:20:47because it was funny and it's this whole
01:20:48package of it's like a it's like a giant
01:20:50release valve yeah right and so it is
01:20:54amazing right right he he's freeing
01:20:56everybody's mind yeah exactly right and
01:20:58that's that's what the great that's what
01:20:59the great movies do that's what great
01:21:01music does that's what great comedy does
01:21:03like that you know the at the end of the
01:21:04day like that that is a very very very
01:21:06big contribution to the evolution of our
01:21:08of our of our societies and I I think we
01:21:10would really miss it if we didn't have
01:21:11it oh amazing yeah yeah no Hollywood is
01:21:14Hollywood is freedom that's why we need
01:21:16we need to say but although I I I think
01:21:19it'll be okay um then uh moving on so
01:21:24fabulous
01:21:26Maximus um ask and this is actually
01:21:30interesting uh question because I think
01:21:32it's it's actually kind of a a
01:21:34misunderstanding but I'm going to read
01:21:36it as you wrote it or she wrote it um
01:21:39how will the job losses in Hollywood due
01:21:42to AI compared to with to those in other
01:21:46Industries during previous waves of
01:21:48automation good news um so yeah the
01:21:52question's not true true yeah yeah so
01:21:53the good the good news is the question
01:21:54is actually yeah the question is is it's
01:21:56it's a very obvious question and
01:21:57obviously a very valid question but um
01:21:59the good news is we have 300 years of
01:22:01history on this now we have 300 years of
01:22:03basically increased levels of
01:22:04industrialization Auto automation
01:22:06computerization um and you know there
01:22:08are more jobs in the world today at
01:22:09higher wages than ever before so you
01:22:11know this this goes to the sort of
01:22:12classic it's what economists call the
01:22:14lump of Labor fallacy which basically is
01:22:16this idea that the argument goes that
01:22:18you know there's basically only a fixed
01:22:20amount of work to be done in the world
01:22:21and if a machine does some of it or if
01:22:23an AI does some of it then there's less
01:22:24for people to do and it'll cause job
01:22:26loss it actually turns out that's not
01:22:28what happens and that's not what happens
01:22:29because of the economic principle of
01:22:31elasticity um which is the process
01:22:34that's quote unquote causing job loss or
01:22:35let's say causing changes in jobs um is
01:22:38also bringing prices down and increasing
01:22:39production levels um and then it turns
01:22:42out that that basically increases the
01:22:44the size of the economy that increases
01:22:45the size of that industry uh look
01:22:47another way to put this the industries
01:22:48that have higher levels of automation
01:22:50also also grow faster uh right because
01:22:53they're they're able to accelerate their
01:22:55process of building more products at
01:22:56cheaper prices and therefore you know
01:22:58selling more um and therefore being
01:23:00bigger Industries and employing more
01:23:01people uh than the than the industries
01:23:03that have less less technology and so
01:23:04this this goes right back to the so
01:23:06anyway so that that's the general
01:23:07argument that that automation doesn't
01:23:08doesn't create job loss and AI won't
01:23:10create job loss in fact quite the
01:23:12opposite um the net job creation will be
01:23:14way up you know this goes back to where
01:23:15we started on the you know on the on the
01:23:17utopian thing which is just like look
01:23:18like you know what if all of a sudden
01:23:20you know the great Creator can make five
01:23:22times as many movies or what if all of a
01:23:24sudden every movie gets twice as good
01:23:26right um and you know all these
01:23:27different scenarios you can paint and
01:23:29and the result of that will be a massive
01:23:30expansion of the industry right a big
01:23:32increase in demand sure exactly right
01:23:35you you induce demand like increased
01:23:36Supply induces demand um and so you know
01:23:39we and look there all the creative
01:23:41fields are like this like does anybody
01:23:43ever complain that there's too much
01:23:45great music right like no like you know
01:23:49mostly the opposite mostly the opposite
01:23:51right like there isn't n enough there
01:23:53should be like a lot more great music
01:23:54there should be a lot more great movies
01:23:55there should be a lot more great there
01:23:56should be a lot more great everything um
01:23:58right and there's you know these and
01:24:00these these this this this industry of
01:24:01all Industries I mean it's you know the
01:24:03market is the entire world you know the
01:24:04market is five to eight billion people
01:24:07um you know with like you know with
01:24:08enormous spending power and with
01:24:09enormous time you know that and you know
01:24:11enormous love for for for for these
01:24:13forms of media um and so the the the
01:24:16result of this and again this is the
01:24:18same kind of you know this is the thing
01:24:19that an industry has to go through and
01:24:20people have anxiety about it and so
01:24:21forth but
01:24:23on the other side of this kind of change
01:24:24typically what happens is a much larger
01:24:27uh uh industry with like way more uh
01:24:30employment way more output and I and I
01:24:32and I I'm 100% convinced that's what's
01:24:34going to happen for sure in the tech
01:24:36industry and for sure in in in the in
01:24:38the entertainment industry yeah you know
01:24:40that's so interesting you bring that up
01:24:41because I recently went back and watched
01:24:44the AFI 100 which is the I think it's
01:24:47American Film Institute top best 100
01:24:49movies of all times and two things
01:24:52struck me one was the fact that they
01:24:54could put that list together and that it
01:24:56would be like a reasonable shot at it
01:24:59was just amazing because there aren't
01:25:02that many movies and then the other
01:25:03thing that struck me is like some of the
01:25:05movies I really didn't
01:25:06like so you know maybe it's just me I'm
01:25:09like uh got some you know brain defect
01:25:13or something but I and then there were
01:25:16definitely movies off the list that I
01:25:17like much better than movies on the list
01:25:19but it's it's just that it does speak to
01:25:21the fact that
01:25:23that you know there aren't there should
01:25:26be more great movies there definitely
01:25:27should you know given the given the
01:25:29talent of humanity but the de the bar to
01:25:32make a movie is so high um and requires
01:25:35you know so much money and and and so
01:25:37much coordination uh and and
01:25:41lawyers um that that it is quite
01:25:43difficult now you know look having said
01:25:45that you know to kind of give the devil
01:25:46is due like look the jobs will change
01:25:49yeah right um and so you know the
01:25:52analogy like if I were going to like
01:25:53steel man you know against my own
01:25:55argument the analogy here would be like
01:25:56you know look the blacksmith you know
01:25:58the blacksmith industry never recovered
01:25:59after the introduction of the car yeah
01:26:02right like you know look there are still
01:26:03horses making horseshoes is not what it
01:26:06once was but making horseshoes is not
01:26:08what it once was and there were
01:26:09blacksmiths who had perfectly good jobs
01:26:10making horseshoes who all of a sudden
01:26:12when cars came along like they didn't
01:26:13adapt and if you were still trying to
01:26:14make horses shoes 10 years after the car
01:26:15came along like you were probably in
01:26:17trouble now what happened was the car
01:26:19created far more jobs right than it than
01:26:22it displaced and so for example the
01:26:24number of car mechanics was orders of
01:26:25magnitude beyond the number of of of
01:26:27blacksmiths right um and then and then
01:26:29you know and then the downstream effect
01:26:31of the car was like very profound and
01:26:32that the car led to the creation of
01:26:34Industries the car led to movie theaters
01:26:37um the car led to you know retail chains
01:26:40it led to malls it led to suburbs it led
01:26:42to you know hotels it led to amusement
01:26:43parks right with fast food exactly it
01:26:46led to you know all kinds of economic
01:26:48growth and job creation that would not
01:26:50have been possible if we were still
01:26:51riding horses and so so it it is a great
01:26:53case study of like the net aggregate job
01:26:55creation from the car was like profound
01:26:57over the alternate World in which people
01:26:58had stuck uh to uh to to horses but look
01:27:01having said that there were there were
01:27:02blacksmiths who ended up stranded on the
01:27:04wrong side of that um and so um and and
01:27:07look it's just like part of you know and
01:27:09then you kind of want to you play this
01:27:10back in history it's like okay what you
01:27:12know what should we have done what
01:27:13should Society have done about the sort
01:27:14of Disappearing blacksmith jobs right
01:27:16and you know from a societal standpoint
01:27:19the last thing on Earth you would have
01:27:20wanted to do is to slow down the
01:27:22progression of the introduction of the
01:27:23car to protect the blacksmith jobs like
01:27:24that would have made everybody worse off
01:27:26right to protect a very small what
01:27:28ultimately turned out to be a small
01:27:29number of blacksmith jobs but look at
01:27:30the same time you did have blacksmiths
01:27:31who couldn't couldn't adapt and so there
01:27:32there does need to be some consideration
01:27:34for the fact you know that that it is a
01:27:36change and then there there needs to be
01:27:37you know there need to be paths for
01:27:38people to be able to uh you know to be
01:27:40to be able to adapt and you know a lot
01:27:41of the blacksmiths and the blacksmith's
01:27:43children right have to have a path to be
01:27:45able to get onto the onto the onto the
01:27:47side of the new technology yep yeah no
01:27:49no for sure okay Simon
01:27:52[Music]
01:27:53bonano these names are all interesting
01:27:56although this may be a real name how do
01:27:59you see AI plus blockchain redefining IP
01:28:03royalties for Hollywood creators yeah so
01:28:06Ben why don't you start with this
01:28:07because I know you've thought a lot
01:28:08about this yeah so I think look and I'll
01:28:12go to like a simpler like the simpler
01:28:14version of Hollywood I think is the is
01:28:16the music kind of side of Hollywood um
01:28:19which is
01:28:20uh you know royalties in the music
01:28:23industry have been just a huge um
01:28:28complexity way money has been stolen
01:28:32other kinds of things in that you know
01:28:34if you make a song um there are
01:28:38generally many many people involved in
01:28:40that song and they you know from writers
01:28:44to producers to um other singers and you
01:28:47know people and they all you know
01:28:49particularly in today's world when we
01:28:50don't really have not like the Beatles
01:28:53um you know most people are individual
01:28:56uh kind of artists that that have a
01:28:58collection of people that work with them
01:28:59on something and those things are all
01:29:02recorded on a contract and stuck in a
01:29:04drawer somewhere like it is really not
01:29:06managed um even in a database that other
01:29:09people can access like I.E the people
01:29:12who contributed to the song and so it
01:29:15ends up happening is the money kind of
01:29:17comes in to like the label or like
01:29:21whoever ever The Entity is and then
01:29:24you're relying on them to kind of
01:29:25distribute the money back out to you and
01:29:29I I'll just tell you a lot of money gets
01:29:31lost my brother who's in the music
01:29:32industry has done um you know literally
01:29:36hundreds of audits on behalf of his
01:29:38artists and never has he not retrieved
01:29:42money that was being like held kind
01:29:46of whatever intentionally or
01:29:49unintentionally you know against the
01:29:51actual agreement in the
01:29:52contract uh so there's that part of it
01:29:55but then there's a second part of it
01:29:57which actually shrinks the industry
01:29:58quite a bit which is let's say that
01:30:00you're the NBA and you want to then
01:30:03license that song um all of the people
01:30:07who have to sign off on that or like if
01:30:09you're Ben Horowitz and you're writing a
01:30:11book with a rap lyric in it uh getting
01:30:16approval to pay for that lyric that you
01:30:20can put in your chapter um is a heck of
01:30:24a process it's very very difficult and
01:30:26so it just slows down um it creates
01:30:30tremendous friction in the ability for
01:30:32artists to make more money off their
01:30:34work because you know if you could sell
01:30:36it easily would be better if those of
01:30:39you have ever been Europe you'll notice
01:30:40that the the the music is like songs you
01:30:44know but not by the people who you know
01:30:46singing them why is that it's because
01:30:49you know it's too hard to license it and
01:30:51so that's more like money that gets lost
01:30:53from the artist uh that they could have
01:30:56but this this kind of system is bad so
01:30:59what a blockchain um would do in
01:31:00particular I think for the royalties is
01:31:03you could just have these contracts be
01:31:06open published on the blockchain have
01:31:10the money come into a smart contract and
01:31:13then get sent out to all the
01:31:15participants automatically no third
01:31:18party involved it's just you know the
01:31:20the agreement is enforced by The Game
01:31:22theoretics and and mathematical
01:31:24properties of the blockchain and not
01:31:26subject to you know bureaucrats lawyers
01:31:31um you know record companies needing to
01:31:33make like a profit in the quarter like
01:31:36none of those things come into play uh
01:31:38and I think that you know it's a very
01:31:41kind of powerful tool in that sense you
01:31:43know look I I think
01:31:45AI you know on top of that basically
01:31:48makes all those Solutions much easier to
01:31:50build um because it is a tremendous
01:31:53enhancer on like creating code and these
01:31:56kinds of things and so I think that uh
01:31:59um you know those would go hand in hand
01:32:01and I like I I imagine Hollywood is very
01:32:05similar uh there's a you know huge kind
01:32:07of conflict in the in the recent strike
01:32:09was just about okay what are the like
01:32:12there are no royalty payments anymore
01:32:15like where'd they go and uh you know
01:32:17kind of having a contract that could do
01:32:19royalty payments would enable you know
01:32:22potentially other distribution ideas
01:32:24yeah could you describe for people
01:32:26haven't heard it just describe what
01:32:27Grimes is
01:32:28doing um yeah so so my understanding of
01:32:31it is uh she is um
01:32:34basically licensing so if you want to do
01:32:38AI Grimes um which is a you know
01:32:43basically um train an AI on grimes's
01:32:47voice and then make your own Grim song
01:32:49she'll auto license that to you you um
01:32:53and she'll do that you know using
01:32:55blockchain and then she will uh
01:32:58basically split the profits um and I
01:33:01think it's a 50-50 split if I recall but
01:33:04so basically that's a kind of very
01:33:06Innovative way to say hey um you know
01:33:10rather than run from AI let me just say
01:33:13look you can use it just acknowledge the
01:33:15fact that you the idea of my voice and
01:33:19my style like I invented that so pay me
01:33:22for that you don't have to pay me for
01:33:23the song you wrote you can get the money
01:33:25for that and the I think you know like
01:33:28one of the really exciting things about
01:33:30that is if you're a musical artist you
01:33:33know in that way AI actually
01:33:34immortalizes you you become an
01:33:36instrument um and not just like a a
01:33:40singer at one point in time you become
01:33:42an instrument that people can use you
01:33:44know you become a violin or a you know
01:33:46or a saxophone uh so you know that that
01:33:50that's actually a super super exciting
01:33:52idea um and kudos to her for and that's
01:33:55all registered through a block that's
01:33:56all a block that's all registered
01:33:57through a blockchain based system the
01:33:58way you're describing right yeah exactly
01:34:00and and and the advantage of that is you
01:34:02can use it right like as a creative
01:34:04without having to call a lawyer or you
01:34:06know um do a contract or negotiate terms
01:34:10or whatever the terms are all published
01:34:13uh and you know you can opt in or or not
01:34:16um but uh you know it's as simple as you
01:34:19know as as getting a violin you know
01:34:22like there it is you buy this instrument
01:34:24it's Grimes and this could run I mean
01:34:27the the the system that does this could
01:34:28run for a thousand years right um and it
01:34:30could just it's always a 50-50 split and
01:34:32new people could yeah yeah right right
01:34:33right she could you know in her on her
01:34:35deathbed she could redirect it to
01:34:38somebody she likes um and and all that
01:34:41kind of thing so right yeah yeah yeah
01:34:43it's it's quite an amazing
01:34:45um amazing possibility when you when you
01:34:48think about all the things you might do
01:34:49with that so I I have the scenario I
01:34:51just can't get out of my head um which
01:34:53is so first of all like I'm not like a
01:34:54you I'm not a pop music like all the
01:34:56music I like is the people are all dead
01:34:58but um I'm not like a up to speed on pop
01:35:00music and don't try to be but um you
01:35:01know everybody always talk talks about
01:35:03how smart she is and I just I never
01:35:04quite knew what that meant and then she
01:35:06came out with this thing and I was just
01:35:07like completely blown away like it's one
01:35:09of the most Innovative things I've seen
01:35:10anybody do inside Tech and I was like
01:35:12okay like G yeah yes she in fact is a
01:35:14genius this is amazing she she went
01:35:17right to the strong form of the idea
01:35:19right like over all
01:35:23we see like entrepreneurs running around
01:35:26with like you know weak forms Half Baked
01:35:29or not Half Baked but like half measured
01:35:31and she went right to the full thing
01:35:33like this is what it ought to be and
01:35:35then my understanding is that part of
01:35:37the way she was able to do this was she
01:35:38owns she like she does her all of her
01:35:40own stuff right she publishes her own
01:35:42music she she has her own she doesn't
01:35:43like work she doesn't go through a label
01:35:46right right right well she owns her
01:35:47Masters she owns her Masters right so
01:35:49she's she's retained a lot of legal
01:35:51autonomy you know which is kind of you
01:35:53know again doing things the hard way um
01:35:54you know for for a new musician but like
01:35:56she she she's pulled it off so so I have
01:35:58this I have this kind of fantasy uh I
01:36:01don't know utopian dystopian scenario in
01:36:02my head which is um you know basically
01:36:05if she's able to do this because she
01:36:06owns all of her own rights and then the
01:36:08existing you know music labels or
01:36:10whatever they just like drag their feet
01:36:12and they don't like Embrace this fast
01:36:13enough um you know there there will be
01:36:15like archaeologists in a thousand years
01:36:18right who will look back over the sweep
01:36:19of the next you know Millennium and
01:36:20they'll be like why was there only one
01:36:24musician right like why was there only
01:36:26one
01:36:27singer right because what will happen is
01:36:30the the the number of variations of her
01:36:33that will exist in perpetuity expressed
01:36:36through this technology tracked through
01:36:38this and enabled through this system
01:36:39there will be thousands and then
01:36:40millions of grime songs um and they will
01:36:44just make up the overwhelming majority
01:36:46of like the entire recording catalog and
01:36:49100 years from now it's just like that
01:36:51just be like the most advanced music
01:36:52will all be like Grimes music um right
01:36:56like and it'll just like swamp the whole
01:36:57thing and so it'll be like you know a
01:36:59thousand years from now it's like
01:37:00they'll find some reference to you know
01:37:01Frank Sinatra they be like who was that
01:37:03we've never even heard of him because
01:37:04like all the music we listen to is like
01:37:07Grimes so you know maybe this is maybe
01:37:09I'm carrying that too far but you are
01:37:12but I think it's illustrative of of the
01:37:14power of the concept but to make the
01:37:16point like look like if the if the if
01:37:17the world is going to if the world's
01:37:18going to evolve in this direction like
01:37:20it's going to really matter who like
01:37:21picks up the flag and runs with it uh
01:37:23versus who doesn't and and this at least
01:37:24to me this feels like it feels like she
01:37:26fired the starting gun on a process
01:37:28that's going to play out over a long
01:37:29period of time well I think it also gets
01:37:32to the kind of value of Independence
01:37:34right like this is the um the the
01:37:37interesting thing about the creative
01:37:38industry that's very different than the
01:37:40tech industry is like when we invest in
01:37:42a company we get a piece of the value of
01:37:47the company when somebody invests in an
01:37:49artist or a movie
01:37:52they also get like these intellectual
01:37:54property rights which is a kind of a
01:37:56different the nature of it is different
01:37:58right like so it's like okay I get you I
01:38:01get your name and likeness I buy that in
01:38:04exchange for advancing you money to make
01:38:06a record um which is really kind of in
01:38:09some ways and that by the way that
01:38:11Advance is recoupable um so it's a debt
01:38:15Equity instrument but I don't just get
01:38:17the equity I get
01:38:19you and and uh so so it's a very it's a
01:38:24construct that like I think AI causes
01:38:28you as an artist to really rethink and
01:38:29say okay my Independence now is far more
01:38:32valuable because what I create can then
01:38:35be remixed and in order for me to get an
01:38:38interest in that remix and that recreate
01:38:41and that you know further use I actually
01:38:44have to be independent so Titus teters
01:38:48says does AI mean artists who don't want
01:38:51to follow the suicidal Hollywood
01:38:54conformism on everything from coid to
01:38:57woke get a
01:38:59chance that by the way that comment in
01:39:01that commentary is not one of the
01:39:04podcast host it is one of the uh
01:39:07audience members we are not uh taking
01:39:10responsibility for Titus teachers
01:39:13touchers but we're excited that he was
01:39:15able to express himself through the
01:39:16medium of of of asking
01:39:20questions I mean look like this ought to
01:39:21be goes back to little bit of extending
01:39:24what you've been talking about but like
01:39:25look this ought to mean that tools will
01:39:27now be in the hands for example some
01:39:28people who want to make movies like it
01:39:29should now be possible to make the
01:39:31equivalent of Hollywood quality movies
01:39:32on a fraction of the budget right so
01:39:34just just take the economics like it it
01:39:36ought to be possible here within a
01:39:37couple years um you know to make entire
01:39:39full length movies you know basically on
01:39:40your laptop completely produced you know
01:39:42with like whatever actors superimposed
01:39:44into the thing like like a couple years
01:39:46uh I don't know I'd say probably five
01:39:48years out that starts to tractable by
01:39:50the way there's a there's a movie people
01:39:52like this kind of thing there's a movie
01:39:53I watched a little while ago um it's uh
01:39:55I think I believe the title of the movie
01:39:57is Monsters of Men um and uh it's this
01:40:00movie that the special effects guy shot
01:40:03um to prove a point um and he shot it uh
01:40:08like in the jungles of Vietnam or
01:40:09something and it's like a it's like a
01:40:10killer robot like monster movie like a
01:40:13predator you know kind of movie but with
01:40:14robots um with lots of like violence and
01:40:17action scenes um uh and killer robot
01:40:20stomping around um and gunfights and so
01:40:22forth um he shot it uh I think it has if
01:40:25I remembering properly it has 2,000 VFX
01:40:27shots and and by the way they're really
01:40:29good like you basically like it's it's
01:40:31like it's basically it's at least it's
01:40:32the very least TV caliber if not full
01:40:34Hollywood caliber but it's like really
01:40:35good it's like you know killer robot
01:40:36stomping around the jungle it looks
01:40:37great and the guy who did it is a is a
01:40:38VFX Pro so it looks great but he shot
01:40:40the entire thing it's 2,000 shots and I
01:40:42think the total budget of the entire
01:40:43movie was $2
01:40:44million W right and so it was sort of a
01:40:47demonstration of like what one person
01:40:49with a computer can actually do these
01:40:50days
01:40:52um and so like I don't think we're that
01:40:54far out from a tool set that's going to
01:40:56as I said like a tool set that's going
01:40:57to let any film student basically have a
01:40:59movie you know that's sort of a
01:41:00Hollywood caliber you know um you know
01:41:02at least from a production value
01:41:03standpoint you know kind of thing by the
01:41:05time they they they leave film school um
01:41:07you know it's just sort of a basic thing
01:41:08that they can do on their laptop I think
01:41:10I think the technology on that's going
01:41:11to actually evolve very very quickly
01:41:12here now you know look what what the
01:41:14Hollywood people will say the the
01:41:16counterargument from the Hollywood
01:41:17people will say well what will happen is
01:41:18the audience expectations will go up
01:41:20right and so all of a sudden it won't be
01:41:22good enough to have a $300 million you
01:41:24know Blockbuster the way you have today
01:41:26instead it's going to have to be a
01:41:27billion dollar Blockbuster and it's
01:41:28going to have to be like super
01:41:29spectacular and all this and that it's
01:41:32like I you know I don't know like you
01:41:33know there have been
01:41:35many seems like that can be a both
01:41:38though right because um well remember
01:41:40the beginning of the internet one of the
01:41:42very first um shows on the internet was
01:41:44South Park um yes right which is by the
01:41:47way still running today uh and that
01:41:50thing continues to be the lowest budget
01:41:53animation possible uh with uh them doing
01:41:57all the voices
01:41:59themselves so you couldn't do it any
01:42:01cheaper and they never actually amped it
01:42:04up you know in the entire time they're
01:42:05doing the show so so I I think the
01:42:08lowend and the high end are both always
01:42:11interesting so there's actually this G
01:42:13they did a little so here's here's what
01:42:16so they did this thing so the original
01:42:18South Park the original South Park was
01:42:19literally it was cardboard like it was
01:42:21animation it was like it was like layers
01:42:22layers of cardboard um and so they did
01:42:25move a few a few seasons in they did
01:42:26move to CGI because they needed a they
01:42:28needed a because they wanted to be able
01:42:29to do the episodes quickly they wanted
01:42:31to be able to do them because a lot of
01:42:32the great things about South Park is
01:42:34they can do an episode that addresses
01:42:35something that happened that
01:42:38week the topicality of it has been
01:42:40really critical over the years and so
01:42:41they did move to computerized production
01:42:43process but what they did was they did
01:42:453D computer Graphics modeling of
01:42:49cardboard
01:42:51perfect because what they had to do I
01:42:54actually heard this from one of the one
01:42:55one of the guys directly so what they
01:42:56did because what they did was their
01:42:57Their audience was used to seeing
01:42:58layered cardboard right that was the
01:43:01aesthetic of of of the thing and so and
01:43:03it actually turns out if you just do
01:43:05like animated version of that without
01:43:07the layering of the cardboard it looks
01:43:08differently and it doesn't look it
01:43:09doesn't look real and so they actually
01:43:11did 3D modeling of what it's like to
01:43:13actually have layers of
01:43:16cardboard and so to this day if you
01:43:18watch it if you like zoom in you don't
01:43:20notice as you're watching it but if like
01:43:21if you really look carefully they'll
01:43:23have like the layering and the Shadows
01:43:25like are still in there as if it's
01:43:27actually being produced to cardboard and
01:43:28so yeah look that that that aesthetic
01:43:30worked and stuck um and I me look a lot
01:43:32of the this is the argument I always
01:43:33have with a lot of my friends in
01:43:34Hollywood actually is like look a lot of
01:43:36the Breakthrough movies that redefine
01:43:37Hollywood were made in a shoest string
01:43:38budget right so easy rider uh which sort
01:43:41of inaugurated what they called new
01:43:42Hollywood in the 1970s like that was
01:43:44made for basically no money you know
01:43:45Dennis Hopper and then there was like
01:43:47Reservoir Dogs which kicked off the
01:43:48Indie boom of the of the 90s and that
01:43:51was you know Quenton Tarantino B
01:43:52basically the whole thing was shot in a
01:43:53warehouse right and you you think you
01:43:55saw all kinds of stuff that happened in
01:43:57Reservoir Dogs of bank robbery and all
01:43:58these things and like none of it
01:43:59actually you you never actually see any
01:44:01of it um uh you just see that the sort
01:44:04of aftermath of it which which which
01:44:05which kept the budget small George
01:44:07lucas' breakthrough film was American
01:44:08Graffiti which was again a tiny little
01:44:10budget and South Park was a tiny little
01:44:12budget um and so this is the thing I'm
01:44:15actually most curious about like I am
01:44:17very excited to see what Steven
01:44:18Spielberg doeses um but the thing I'm
01:44:20most excited about is there have got to
01:44:22be more you know Dennis Hoppers Quenton
01:44:24Tarantino um you know George Lucas's out
01:44:26there um and they you know they they
01:44:29it's just like the founders we work with
01:44:30where they they'll have some Vision when
01:44:31they're 20 or 21 or 22 but if they have
01:44:33to wait 10 or 15 or 20 years to get to
01:44:35the point when they can raise the money
01:44:37to be able to build the thing like they
01:44:38may and and they may not ever do it
01:44:40because they may just get pulled into
01:44:41the existing status quo system you know
01:44:43back back to back to the original
01:44:44question but you know the idea that any
01:44:4620-year-old with an idea is going to be
01:44:48able to make a movie like we could be we
01:44:49we could see a creative flowering here
01:44:52you know across many kinds of media that
01:44:54is really
01:44:55extraordinary yeah and I think kind of
01:44:57you know going back to the original
01:44:59question um you know about kind of this
01:45:03like okay you know will Hollywood will
01:45:05this change Hollywood I think that it
01:45:08kind of gets this larger question of
01:45:10society and I think that you know
01:45:12historically the unhealthy like you know
01:45:16societies that end in you know kind of
01:45:18the murders of their own people and
01:45:19these kinds of things the ones where oh
01:45:21there's an idea that I don't like that
01:45:24somebody's put out and
01:45:26so my idea is to censor and repress and
01:45:30Crush that idea is the is the worst kind
01:45:33of societies historically and the best
01:45:35kind of societies are oh I have the
01:45:37tools and the distribution to get my own
01:45:40idea out there and you talk about this a
01:45:43lot in actually the creation of the
01:45:45United States is one of the great things
01:45:46about it was you know all of the kind of
01:45:49founding fathers had had their own
01:45:51personal
01:45:52newspaper which they would write under
01:45:54um but like if they didn't like somebody
01:45:56else's idea they just wrote their own
01:45:57idea and that's you know such you know
01:46:00that's a free society as opposed to a
01:46:02highly repressive society that says oh
01:46:05my God somebody says that that's
01:46:06dangerous language that's you know this
01:46:09kind of thing that's that kind of thing
01:46:11you know let's kill it uh and that's you
01:46:15know once you think that's the way that
01:46:18it just it generally always ends badly
01:46:22it always ends with uh you know kind of
01:46:25this kind of mass you know mob Justice
01:46:29uh mass murder these kinds of things
01:46:32yeah your years they called years
01:46:33Cambodian it's called year zero yeah
01:46:35look the the American Revolution was um
01:46:38you know the printing press really took
01:46:40off as something just the actual
01:46:41printing like the printing press is a
01:46:43product that many many people could buy
01:46:45and run print shops um and then
01:46:46ultimately run newspapers like that you
01:46:47know that was a 17th century phenomenon
01:46:49and I think that's to your point that's
01:46:51exactly that's exactly correlated with
01:46:53like the fact that the United States was
01:46:54con you know constructed in the 17th
01:46:5518th centuries like it was a it was sort
01:46:57of a direct my product of that yeah
01:46:59right kind of the the cultural
01:47:01foundation of the whole place okay do
01:47:04you think people care this is from Scott
01:47:06Westman do you think people care about
01:47:09the Providence of content and do you
01:47:11think that will change over time as AI
01:47:13becomes more prevalent
01:47:16yeah Providence of content yeah yeah oh
01:47:21I don't pretend to know exactly what Mr
01:47:24Westman meant by that well there's a
01:47:26bunch I mean it's like yeah well it's
01:47:27like you know I mean take it most most
01:47:30basic level you know like you know where
01:47:31where did it like what was the origin
01:47:33where did it come from I mean you know I
01:47:34mean where this comes up very
01:47:35specifically is around like deep FES
01:47:37right so like uh and and by the way like
01:47:39you know there've been people have been
01:47:40like raising concern about deep FES for
01:47:41the last few years yeah they are
01:47:43starting to work
01:47:45um right um and so like you know look
01:47:49did this PO ICI actually say this thing
01:47:52um you know like for sure you're going
01:47:53to care a lot you know there and you're
01:47:55going to need you know you're going to
01:47:56need entire and we of course we have we
01:47:57have companies working on this be a huge
01:47:59thing going into the presidential
01:48:01election of 2024 for sure
01:48:04because by October they're going to be
01:48:07working perfectly yeah and look by the
01:48:09way like you know look there are people
01:48:11who will say this entirely technology
01:48:12problem I guess I would say is like look
01:48:14people have been misquoted forever right
01:48:16like like I don't know about you Ben but
01:48:18like I've been misquoted in the Press
01:48:20many
01:48:21times Well you actually misquoted on a
01:48:27quote that I
01:48:28gave oh which one is that uh the well I
01:48:32referred to the so there I need to
01:48:35explain this carefully so I don't get
01:48:37attacked Again by The Washington
01:48:40Post oh yes or the New York Times I
01:48:43think it was in that case it was the
01:48:46Washington yeah
01:48:49okay what I had said I was referring to
01:48:52so there was this uh kind of uh the the
01:48:57kind of Reddit group on um who was uh
01:49:01following at that time GameStop uh
01:49:04referred to themsel they used an anagram
01:49:07for Traders which was uh or Traer
01:49:12which was uh and they called
01:49:14themselves the Revolution which
01:49:16was kind of like the anagram of a
01:49:18traiter um
01:49:20and as the Washington Post did hundreds
01:49:24of times in referring to them I referred
01:49:27to them as the Revolution because
01:49:30that's what they call themselves uh and
01:49:33uh
01:49:34Mark got
01:49:37absolutely ripped and an attempted
01:49:39cancellation by a Washington Post
01:49:42journalist for using um the word
01:49:45which he did not I did um but I said it
01:49:49in a context text that everybody in like
01:49:53polite Society used and you know I
01:49:56certainly wouldn't use it to you know
01:49:59attack a person's character or describe
01:50:01a person or denigrate a special needs
01:50:03individual that that's not what it was
01:50:05but you know uh that does happen from
01:50:08time to time
01:50:09misquotes right and then I got right I
01:50:11got attacked for something you said
01:50:12which I had not said yeah yeah that you
01:50:15didn't say at all right right so first
01:50:16of all this reporter is running around
01:50:17saying literally the reporter is running
01:50:19around like we're in Junior we
01:50:20we're in like Junior High with like you
01:50:21know andr said the r word yeah right um
01:50:25you know as if this is finally the
01:50:26excuse to like you know cancel me an
01:50:27ostracize me and you know get me fired
01:50:29and all the rest of it yeah there were
01:50:31certainly better excuses to do that
01:50:33there there there always are so um you
01:50:35know so and and then literally my
01:50:37response was like no like I actually
01:50:39factually did not say that like it's not
01:50:41true you know it was this other guy who
01:50:44I happen to know um well it was very
01:50:47kind of you not to mention my name given
01:50:50I was the other person on the show right
01:50:52but but for EXA exactly but fortunately
01:50:55there was a recording of the clubhouse
01:50:56room at the time and uh so there was
01:50:58literally recording so you could go back
01:50:59and you hear you could hear that I
01:51:00hadn't said that and I I don't know Ben
01:51:01if you remember but the reporter in
01:51:02question I'm sure this tweet has long
01:51:04since been deleted but this reporter was
01:51:06basically called out you know a bunch of
01:51:07people figured this out and and you know
01:51:09this reporter has sort of fans and
01:51:11detractors and so a lot of these
01:51:12reporters detractors on Twitter were
01:51:14like you know you you know you you got
01:51:15it wrong you need to apologize and this
01:51:16reporter literally said like well I she
01:51:19she said something like well I can't be
01:51:20expected to keep all these old bald
01:51:22white guys like
01:51:24separate very offensive ex yes yes clear
01:51:28clearly hate speech by the way um uh
01:51:31clearly clear clearly racially and
01:51:32folically loaded hate speech uh uh being
01:51:36and of course overt agism um uh being
01:51:39deployed there but um but but it's
01:51:41actually it's actually you know it's a
01:51:42funny story but it's actually a micro
01:51:43it's like a micro version of this right
01:51:45which is like okay who said what and
01:51:46when right and who knows and like is it
01:51:49you know like who's who actually said
01:51:50what and when who were these people
01:51:52right and you know look in the future
01:51:53it's going to be was Mark logged in you
01:51:55know was Mark logged into the system at
01:51:56the time was Ben logged in were they
01:51:57actually speaking is this actually their
01:51:59voices did they say this is this the
01:52:01real recording right um and so I mean
01:52:04even even outside the realm of politics
01:52:06like just like basically who does what
01:52:07and when who says what and when like
01:52:09it's it's going to be very very
01:52:10important to like track to to to to to
01:52:12to track all this um and so I I think I
01:52:15think the answer to that I think the
01:52:16answer to that I think is you know yes
01:52:18absolutely 100% like systems for
01:52:19establishing providance are going to be
01:52:21extraordinarily important like the you
01:52:22know future Society is going to
01:52:24basically run on them and luckily we
01:52:27have a we we have a perfect
01:52:30technology for establishing tracking
01:52:32Providence in a way that uh is unbiased
01:52:36and can't be corrupted which is the
01:52:37blockchain uh crypto technology and so
01:52:41you know
01:52:42hopefully uh you know in our in our Zeal
01:52:45to ban everything we don't ban that well
01:52:47this is the irony is that many of the
01:52:49people people who are the most worried
01:52:51about the Providence problem are also
01:52:53the most intent on Banning
01:52:56blockchain
01:52:58right well for the kids in the room it's
01:53:00important to understand the basics about
01:53:03a technology before trying to ban it
01:53:06exactly and so all of the people worried
01:53:08about deep fakes yes exactly so all of
01:53:11the people worried about deep fakes
01:53:12should definitely be 100% opposed to
01:53:14outl blockchains because that is the
01:53:16obvious answer um and uh because
01:53:19everything else is PR manipulation and
01:53:20abuse um and so may maybe at some point
01:53:23the powers that be will we'll figure
01:53:24this out but we'll see and I this kind
01:53:26of leads into the next question from DD
01:53:29Felman which is what do you think is the
01:53:32future of copyright protection in
01:53:36Hollywood yeah I think you know quite
01:53:38honestly I think we probably covered a
01:53:39lot of this already like I think it's
01:53:41it's going like I it's going it's going
01:53:43to continue to be obviously very
01:53:44important but it's going to change a lot
01:53:46because people are going to want to
01:53:47deploy creative assets and likenesses
01:53:49and voices and personalities and so
01:53:51forth and content and do remixes and do
01:53:54combinations like at at like far higher
01:53:57variety than in the past and they're
01:53:58going to have the tool set to be able to
01:53:59do that and so this goes back to this
01:54:01this this kind of thing which is there
01:54:03is a creative flowering that's possible
01:54:05here and a gigantic growth of the
01:54:06industry that's possible here but you
01:54:08know look it it you know it is
01:54:09conceivable that the you know that the
01:54:11laws you know either the current laws or
01:54:13new laws will prevent that from
01:54:14happening and and you know for people in
01:54:15these industries I think they should
01:54:16think hard about that Andrew writes will
01:54:19this finally get us out of the Nostalgia
01:54:22Loop I.E Barbie I think he meant EG bar
01:54:26Barbie for those of our who us who are
01:54:28Latin experts but there's this guy Paul
01:54:30scalas uh the Lindy man um and he did
01:54:33this very interesting thing on what he
01:54:34calls stuck culture and it's it's
01:54:36actually an Internet it's actually a
01:54:37thesis that the internet basically
01:54:39changed the evolution of culture and
01:54:40basically his theory is as follows which
01:54:42is basically well he he he has the
01:54:44strong version of the story and he
01:54:45basically says culture stopped in
01:54:482005 um and he basically says like if
01:54:51you play a video game from 2005 and a
01:54:52video game today it's basically the same
01:54:54game if you listen to you know musical
01:54:57you know pop hit from 2005 and today
01:54:59it's basically the same song If you uh
01:55:02you know buy a if you bought a cell
01:55:04phone in 2005 and you buy a cell phone
01:55:05today or you know whatever 2007 yeah you
01:55:07know the iPhone 2007 like the iPhone and
01:55:092007 and the iPhone today they basically
01:55:10look you know they look exactly the same
01:55:12little it's a little bit thinner but it
01:55:13like looks exactly the same if you
01:55:14bought a car in 2005 and a car today
01:55:16it's basically the same car um if you
01:55:18watched an action movie 2005 in an
01:55:20action movie today it's the same movie
01:55:22um if you buy a shirt in 2005 and you
01:55:25buy the same shirt you buy a shirt today
01:55:26it's the same shirt and he's like look
01:55:28like this is really weird like it's been
01:55:29nearly 20 years um and like why does
01:55:32everything look and sound and feel the
01:55:34same as it did in 2005 because if you go
01:55:35back if you back test this idea like you
01:55:38know we know we all know you know if you
01:55:41grew up in the US like you know you're
01:55:42of a certain age like you can tell at a
01:55:44glance the difference between something
01:55:46from the 1950s versus the 60s versus the
01:55:4870s versus the 0s versus the 90s like
01:55:50they all have a very distinct aesthetic
01:55:52and a very distinct design um and
01:55:54basically his argument is like basically
01:55:56that process of sort of design Evolution
01:55:58um has basically stopped um across a a
01:56:01lot of fields and to the extent that you
01:56:04you you buy this the the his explanation
01:56:06for it basically um it's the impact of
01:56:09the internet but in a very uh specific
01:56:11way which is um if somebody's interested
01:56:14in something weird and offbeat and
01:56:16different um you can get that on the
01:56:18long tale of the internet
01:56:20right and so if you're interested in
01:56:22like some weird new kind of music or
01:56:23some weird new kind of like graphic
01:56:25design or some weird new kind of like
01:56:27software or some weird new kind of
01:56:28whatever like there's like some
01:56:30subreddit or Discord group or something
01:56:33or Twitter micr Community or like
01:56:35whatever where you can like go down
01:56:37there's there's a million of these tiny
01:56:39little rabbit holes that you can go down
01:56:41right and and and and amongst all those
01:56:43rabbit holes there's still tremendous
01:56:44cultural creativity happening but it's
01:56:45fractured across all these little rabbit
01:56:47holes and then if you're a large company
01:56:50trying to bring a piece of clothing to
01:56:52Market or a movie to Market or a video
01:56:53game to Market you basically have become
01:56:56risk averse you basically don't want to
01:56:58deviate out on the cultural Fringe
01:57:00because the people who want cultural
01:57:01right you see what I'm saying the people
01:57:02who want the cultural Fringe are no
01:57:03longer your yeah already have it and so
01:57:06the people who are left are the people
01:57:07who only want the main mainstream the
01:57:10most mainstream Normy thing they can
01:57:12possibly get and so from that standpoint
01:57:14and this and this is you know the the
01:57:16critique the standard critique here of
01:57:17course that you see you know argues that
01:57:19this this this principle applies across
01:57:21many fields of creativity but the
01:57:22Hollywood version of this is the is the
01:57:24complaint you hear all the time
01:57:25including from people in Hollywood right
01:57:27that is basically that that that
01:57:28Hollywood movies like a an
01:57:30extraordinarily large percentage of them
01:57:31are either franchise you know they're
01:57:32either Marvel you know Harry Potter a
01:57:34small number of franchise uh kinds of
01:57:36things you know or their or their
01:57:37remakes right um or another term for a
01:57:40remake is like a Nostalgia act and so
01:57:42yeah and so look and you could say this
01:57:43about the Barbie movie which was like
01:57:45apparent I haven't seen it but
01:57:46apparently like a lot of people think it
01:57:47you know it's obviously a very wellmade
01:57:48movie and very cre in many ways but like
01:57:51it's consistent with the stuck culture
01:57:52thesis that of course the well-made
01:57:54movie that you know got you know made
01:57:55all this money and got all people into
01:57:57see the theater was like a plastic toy
01:57:58from the 1950s like we yeah right you
01:58:01know stuck culture right right right um
01:58:04right it would not conceivably have
01:58:05worked had it been about you know a new
01:58:07toy or a new toy introduced in the last
01:58:0815 years right in fact if you were gonna
01:58:11make a movie today about a new toy
01:58:13introduced in the last 15
01:58:14years what would it even be right like
01:58:17yeah yeah yeah yeah you there is nothing
01:58:20right the toy company the argument would
01:58:22go the toy companies are are recycling
01:58:23the the the old Concepts just like just
01:58:25like Hollywood is yeah um and so anyway
01:58:27what this basically says it's like a
01:58:29barbell Theory it's basically you have a
01:58:31massive amount of cultural fragmentation
01:58:32happening on the long tail and then you
01:58:34have correspondingly a massive amount of
01:58:35cultural centralization risk aversion
01:58:38and sort of nostalgia ination yeah right
01:58:42ha happening at the head now look having
01:58:44said all that Oppenheimer you know
01:58:46disproves you know Oppenheimer you know
01:58:48somewhat disproves the thesis right
01:58:49which is like I mean and Oppenheimer was
01:58:51backward looking in the sense of it was
01:58:52about something that happened in the
01:58:531930s and 1940s but like look it was an
01:58:55original Hollywood movie it's not like
01:58:57it's not like Oppenheimer was like top
01:58:59of mind for everybody right from the
01:59:01last you know years no right like you
01:59:04know he was a real historical figure uh
01:59:05from way back you know looken
01:59:07Oppenheimer I think is going to top a
01:59:08billion dollars in the box office and is
01:59:10like you know a fantastic success and
01:59:11it's gonna sweep the Oscars and so forth
01:59:13so you could you could argue that
01:59:14Oppenheimer disproves the stuck culture
01:59:16thesis the counter counter argument to
01:59:18that is yeah if Christopher Nolan you
01:59:20can make the original movie uh on that
01:59:22kind of budget have that kind of success
01:59:23but like you know name the next one
01:59:26right and and the next one was Barbie or
01:59:27before that the next one was was the new
01:59:29Top Gun movie which again like a great
01:59:31movie but you know you know a remake
01:59:34sequel of a movie made 35 years ago
01:59:36pause there and say like do you buy the
01:59:37thesis let's start with like do you buy
01:59:39the thesis and then let's let's let's
01:59:40diagnose what happens next I I do in
01:59:42pieces but I I think it's probably it's
01:59:45not 100% right like so so there there
01:59:48are things that leak through there's
01:59:51uh you know there's certainly like a lot
01:59:54of the stuff in music going on with
01:59:55things like afro beats
01:59:58is it at least seems different than what
02:00:01we had in 2005 um and uh you know and as
02:00:06you said you know you've got things like
02:00:07Oppenheimer and so forth
02:00:10uh I I think you know Kanye clearly made
02:00:13a entirely new shoe with the Yeezys like
02:00:15they I don't think there's any arguing
02:00:18that um so
02:00:21now he is he is him you know he is who
02:00:24he is so uh you know maybe he's a
02:00:26Christopher Nolan of fashion or that
02:00:28kind of thing but uh so I think a lot of
02:00:33it is true a lot of it is true the
02:00:35convergence of um many creative art
02:00:40forms into kind of like a single set of
02:00:43ideas is is definitely happening yeah
02:00:47and then basically the lens that I put
02:00:48on on it and Paul talks about this a
02:00:50little bit but I'll you know just with
02:00:51the investor kind of hat on or the the
02:00:52the sort of business haton you know the
02:00:54lens that you put on it is economic
02:00:56incentives right which is if you're
02:00:57gonna deploy $300 million to make a
02:00:59movie and you could deploy it into
02:01:02another Marvel movie or another
02:01:03Transformers movie right um or you could
02:01:06deploy it into an original screenplay in
02:01:08this context like you are overwhelmingly
02:01:10likely to deploy it into an own
02:01:12franchise right or a remake um right you
02:01:15have built audience yeah right built and
02:01:17and you have enormous risk aversion
02:01:18which is just don't know if there's an
02:01:20audience out there for something that is
02:01:21genuinely new gets you out of the hits
02:01:24business yeah and into business right
02:01:28yeah exactly and so I I think that I I I
02:01:30I think this why I'm so fired up about
02:01:32the sort of augmentation aspect of this
02:01:33or the tools aspect of this is I think
02:01:35if you bring down the price of
02:01:37originality the cost of originality like
02:01:39if you make it possible for people to
02:01:40exercise creative originality in a
02:01:42fraction of the price I I think that I
02:01:44think that has a potential to take a
02:01:45creative medium that maybe is is in this
02:01:47kind of stuck in this Loop um and I
02:01:49think it has the potential to maybe
02:01:50unstick it uh in a very exciting way
02:01:52because all of a sudden you can have the
02:01:53creativity if you can have the
02:01:54creativity to fraction the price all of
02:01:56a sudden the risk aversion Fades right
02:01:58um and you just have like a lot more
02:02:00production of a lot more original work
02:02:02yeah um and so that that that that
02:02:03that's my optimistic view which is like
02:02:05this this this these tools are actually
02:02:07the answer to this problem okay uh let's
02:02:09see um making original content is
02:02:12expensive this is an interesting
02:02:14geopolitical question AI will make it
02:02:16very cheap to Outsource how do we keep
02:02:19the jobs in America yeah so I mean look
02:02:22like well let me ask you this like
02:02:25why why is Hollywood why is American
02:02:29content so
02:02:32dominant and and then of course the next
02:02:34question is and then and then of course
02:02:36is it like so so this is a really
02:02:40interesting question right now because
02:02:43um so for my lifetime America's
02:02:47completely dominated Global culture like
02:02:50there's massively if you go anywhere in
02:02:52the world everything um all the cultural
02:02:55changes you you know for those of us who
02:02:58lived and were able to travel
02:03:01internationally in the 80s 90s 2000
02:03:042010s now
02:03:062020s what you've seen is an
02:03:10amazing transformation of cultures all
02:03:14around the world towards American
02:03:16culture like everything you know fashion
02:03:18music art movies
02:03:22um i' say that very recently
02:03:28um that's really starting to change and
02:03:30I think you know music which is sort of
02:03:33a little bit The Cutting Edge of culture
02:03:35uh everybody I know in the music
02:03:37industry goes well this is a big change
02:03:40in the last five years is that many of
02:03:43the biggest artists are coming out of
02:03:46Mexico South America um Africa uh Korea
02:03:53um
02:03:55like in in Force and and those artists
02:03:59are actually now uh exporting their
02:04:01culture to a large extent you know back
02:04:03into America um I was just I would say
02:04:07in like hip-hop like UK rap has now kind
02:04:10of probably gone past uh American rap um
02:04:14at least currently you know in terms of
02:04:16quality uh and it's certainly different
02:04:18like it's it's their culture that
02:04:20they're they're exporting not our
02:04:22culture that they're importing at this
02:04:24point uh and I think a lot of that has
02:04:26been a function you know music at least
02:04:28of streaming music the internet um these
02:04:30kinds of things uh where you know the
02:04:34distribution monopolies have all been in
02:04:36America the cultural distribution
02:04:38monopolies have historically been us you
02:04:41know based and that's given our
02:04:44creatives a massive advantage over you
02:04:46know kind of the global creatives I
02:04:48think think that the you know like
02:04:49there's a lot of negatives to that um
02:04:52you know to us controlling Global
02:04:53culture I mean it's been awesome for us
02:04:56uh but it's uh you know I I would say
02:05:00you know people around the world
02:05:01probably have a different view of that
02:05:02so so it's a it's been an interesting
02:05:04change yeah and I look I think more
02:05:06voices you know I'm generally of
02:05:09The View kind of you know the world is
02:05:13kind of shrinking you know with
02:05:14airplanes first and then the internet uh
02:05:17and so we're all kind of
02:05:19in this together in a sense
02:05:21and you know the one thing one the kind
02:05:23of strong belief that I have is that you
02:05:27know getting all the ideas out there um
02:05:30and heard is very very important if you
02:05:33want to get to the best ideas and I
02:05:35think that's true in politics and it's
02:05:37true in um you know in in creativity and
02:05:41music and culture and
02:05:43so you know having you know if AI is a
02:05:47force for that I think that that's a a
02:05:49strong positive at least in my
02:05:51view yeah you know there's a thing that
02:05:53comes to mind as you talk about this
02:05:54it's Marshall mclan had this term called
02:05:56the global village um and you know the
02:05:59global village was basically like when
02:06:00the entire world was wired together like
02:06:02it would be like everybody's in the same
02:06:03Village and and it's actually
02:06:05interesting and the term Village just
02:06:06sounds kind of quaint to our ears and so
02:06:08it's like everybody's kind of in the
02:06:10same you know Town Square or whatever
02:06:12but Village has like an older meaning
02:06:14like a village is a place of like
02:06:16intense Conformity yeah
02:06:19right like a village Village
02:06:21is good point right like for anybody who
02:06:24grew up in a small town right um like
02:06:28the the nature and characteristic of a
02:06:30small town like when when you see
02:06:31fictional portrayals of a small town how
02:06:33big is your town Mark 139 people
02:06:35including the cows that's
02:06:38small the actual reality of life in a
02:06:40small town is everybody's in each
02:06:42other's business all the time um and
02:06:44everybody's watching everybody else and
02:06:46the social Conformity pressure is super
02:06:49intense yeah um and the sort of um what
02:06:52the tall poppy syndrome is like in full
02:06:54effect um and it's like it's it's you
02:06:58know and it's this is very kind of
02:06:59Primal human wiring right which
02:07:01basically is well the survival of the
02:07:02town you know from a from an ancient
02:07:04history standpoint so survival of the
02:07:06town or the village matters more than
02:07:08survival of the individual and so you
02:07:09need people to really be come together
02:07:11as a collective what's that it's
02:07:13confusion The Good the individual must
02:07:17be subverted for the good at a whole
02:07:19yeah exactly and then in Western
02:07:21prehistory you know it's very it's also
02:07:22very similar like you know Western
02:07:23prehistory Western prehistorical you
02:07:26know basically Villages cities they
02:07:28called cities which really Villages you
02:07:29know they were they were this weird kind
02:07:30of hybrid of like they were sort of
02:07:31communist communist and fascist kind of
02:07:33simultaneously uh they were Communists
02:07:35because they they you know they had a
02:07:36share you know you didn't have a
02:07:38critical mass of like a market economy
02:07:39so you had a lot of sharing but they
02:07:41were fascist because like you know
02:07:42somebody was in charge and could take
02:07:43other people's heads off and so it it's
02:07:46this way it's this sort of form of
02:07:47communal living um you know that that
02:07:49look and you know in the modern era a
02:07:50lot of people who grow up in a in a in a
02:07:52in a small town like that a lot of them
02:07:53move to a bigger city in part because
02:07:54they want more cultural you know
02:07:55diversity and they want more ability to
02:07:57express themselves and have original
02:07:59ideas so MCL used the word Global
02:08:01Village and he kind of used it as a
02:08:02negative which is he's just like look
02:08:04we're going to slam everybody together
02:08:05into the equivalent of a village but
02:08:06like we're gonna we're gonna we're GNA
02:08:07have this like hyper level of Conformity
02:08:09um where you're just going to have right
02:08:12very you're going to have you know tall
02:08:13poppy syndrome exercised globally y
02:08:16right um and so and this again this is
02:08:19kind of consistent with the Paul scall
02:08:20stuck culture thing um uh everything's
02:08:23just going to become extremely
02:08:24self-referential and risk averse it's
02:08:27almost like for everyone creative there
02:08:28are now like nine billion critics yeah
02:08:32ex yes that's another yes that's another
02:08:33way to put it yes exactly right
02:08:34everybody else is a Critic so yeah look
02:08:36I think there's a big argument there's
02:08:37an argument for just literally I think
02:08:39there's an argument for like the health
02:08:40of any creative medium there's the
02:08:42argument that you just you actually want
02:08:43like you actually want cultural you you
02:08:45want some level of like cultural
02:08:46differentiation you want some level
02:08:48Geographic differentiation right you
02:08:50want like you know in the local
02:08:51environments need to be at some level of
02:08:52critical mass to be able to like attract
02:08:54top 10 people and do great work um but
02:08:57you actually want like you know quote
02:08:59unquote diversity you actually want like
02:09:01cultural diversity place you know
02:09:02Geographic diversity and you actually
02:09:04want places you know to feel you know
02:09:06you want to feel like it's not the only
02:09:07place and in fact you actually want a
02:09:08competitive effect you know where the
02:09:10different places are actually competing
02:09:11with each other to try to outo each
02:09:12other and and and by the way like look
02:09:14in film and actually especially in
02:09:16Television right now it's like you know
02:09:17look like you know the
02:09:18like squid game was like this you know
02:09:20massive breakthrough but like there
02:09:22there is a there is a you what it showed
02:09:23is there is a creative community in
02:09:25Korea you know built doing like top ends
02:09:27like you know fullon Hollywood quality
02:09:29you know television entertainment now
02:09:31Israel has its own you know scene like
02:09:32that the UK has its own scene like that
02:09:35Stockholm has its own scene like that
02:09:37and so you know a lot and a lot of the
02:09:39great you know American TV shows last 20
02:09:40years are actually remakes of a show
02:09:42from the UK or Israel or or or something
02:09:44like that and so you know it showed like
02:09:46the the the the creativity in that field
02:09:48I think maybe shows the advantage of
02:09:50having multiple
02:09:51locations by the way those a lot of
02:09:53those shows are very original like fa
02:09:55out of Israel and Squid games out of
02:09:57Korea right like they're um they're not
02:10:01stuck culture yeah there is some new
02:10:04culture coming from other regions I was
02:10:07with an Israeli uh entertainment
02:10:08industry couple recently um and that are
02:10:11very involved in all this and and and
02:10:13you know they're like well you know and
02:10:13I was like wow I really like what what's
02:10:15happening in Israel and they're like
02:10:16well what show he really like and I I
02:10:17knew as I was saying it I you know I was
02:10:18like oh well F yeah and and and they
02:10:21literally you know they laughed and they
02:10:22were like yeah we knew that's what you
02:10:23were going to say because that's what
02:10:25everybody loves but also they said you
02:10:27know look like is it bad that basically
02:10:29what is it bad that the most famous show
02:10:32that wins all the Awards coming out of
02:10:33Israel is literally about like the
02:10:35Israeli Palestinian conflict like it
02:10:37like is it is it a is it a cliche
02:10:39like how do how do they put it like is
02:10:42is really is really that's the thing
02:10:44that we have to offer to the world is
02:10:45this like horribly up you know
02:10:47geopolitical that we have going on
02:10:49people killing each other like is that
02:10:50really what we're known for and I was
02:10:52like look like you know and is it like
02:10:54bad that that's like the peak of our of
02:10:55our creative capability is that and I
02:10:57was like look like it's your point like
02:11:00that wasn't going to get America that
02:11:01wasn't gonna get made in America right
02:11:03like America certainly not correctly you
02:11:05know certainly not with nuanced as that
02:11:08show is exactly and and for people who
02:11:10haven't seen the show it's about this
02:11:12Israeli Special Forces Unit that goes
02:11:13under cover in the in the Palestinian
02:11:15territories actually as as Arabs uh and
02:11:18it turns out there is a real Israeli
02:11:20Special Forces Unit that does that and
02:11:21the guy who actually is the star of the
02:11:23show was the guy who actually did that
02:11:25in real life and then they're actually
02:11:27filming in you know they're filming in
02:11:29and around those areas and so if you're
02:11:31you know you know if you're from the you
02:11:32know if you're from like the us or
02:11:34whatever and you just like would have no
02:11:35way to ever experience this kind of
02:11:36thing like you're really getting a slice
02:11:38of Life of Something Happening that you
02:11:40would never you know you would never get
02:11:41exposed to um and so I'm like look like
02:11:43it's you know look it's it's real like
02:11:44it's a real thing it really matters uh
02:11:46it's really important um and I would
02:11:48never have gotten to see that otherwise
02:11:50um and it's it's you know on top of
02:11:52being super relevant on every possible
02:11:54you know geopolitical front everything
02:11:55it's like incredibly well executed you
02:11:57know it's clearly creative professionals
02:11:58to the top of their game like it's
02:11:59amazing and like you know the the answer
02:12:01anyway the point being is like the
02:12:02answer maybe is like we need like a
02:12:03thousand times more of that kind of
02:12:06thing right coming from everywhere in
02:12:07the
02:12:08world yeah and I and I think that you
02:12:11know the the other thing that you
02:12:12alluded to is like if you think about
02:12:15that show and anybody who's watching it
02:12:18how enhanced their understanding of
02:12:20what's going on in the region as opposed
02:12:22to these cartoon versions We Get You
02:12:24know either in the press or from
02:12:26politicians um is profound and you know
02:12:30like that kind of thing is completely
02:12:31lacking on say you know the the uh
02:12:34Ukraine Russian war right now like right
02:12:37do you know like I'd like to think you
02:12:39know I know what's going on but I
02:12:41certainly don't believe I I know from
02:12:43like all the Twitter experts and and
02:12:45what I'm reading in the press and so
02:12:46forth you know it'd be great to
02:12:48have you know like you know real uh
02:12:52Geniuses who understand like humanity
02:12:55and human nature and who are great
02:12:57creatives you know making you know
02:12:59helping us understand these things and
02:13:01helping us understand the world and this
02:13:05this new technology will be an enabler
02:13:06for that by the way let me close in a
02:13:09movie recommendation actually um a movie
02:13:11I just love and I think it's on I'm
02:13:12pretty sure it's still on Netflix um
02:13:15it's a mie it's a movie called bust uh
02:13:17be y bu is in like a it's a a bust of a
02:13:22drug buy so buy bust um it is a Filipino
02:13:27no yeah Philippines it's shot in Manila
02:13:29Philippine filmmakers actors actresses
02:13:32um and it's an action movie um shot on a
02:13:35shoestring budget um about the drug war
02:13:38in the Philippines you know which is
02:13:40like super intense around you know duter
02:13:42and like you know tons of controversy
02:13:43around all that and uh but it's an
02:13:45action it's a it's a it's a wall to--all
02:13:47action movie it's so the the the tagline
02:13:49for it people talk about is it's it's
02:13:50John Wick set in the Manila
02:13:54slums and it it lives up to that and
02:13:57again it's not like this is not a
02:13:58Hollywood this is not like a $200
02:13:59million movie this is like a$2 million
02:14:01movie like they shot it you know with
02:14:02very little money um so you you you need
02:14:05to put yourself in that mindset but it
02:14:06is two hours of like just wall to wall
02:14:10and they literally they literally shot
02:14:12it in the Manila slums like they shot it
02:14:13on location and it's it's like you know
02:14:16it's like politically relevant it's like
02:14:17socially relevant it's incredibly well
02:14:18acted and performed uh but it's the kind
02:14:20of thing where you watch it you watch it
02:14:22after two hours and you feel like you've
02:14:23been in you know you feel like you've
02:14:25been in a place uh that you never would
02:14:27otherwise get to go um in a very kind of
02:14:29visceral way and so anyway if if the
02:14:31future of the decentralization of of the
02:14:32of the industry is is more projects like
02:14:34that and Fa I think we're we're I think
02:14:36the the world the world is actually
02:14:37going to be in very good shape that is
02:14:39awesome and I've got like one quick
02:14:41closing anecdote so I took a friend of
02:14:44mine who I grew up with to the Adele
02:14:46show in uh
02:14:48in Las Vegas over the weekend and he
02:14:51said wow I'm so surprised how down to
02:14:53earth and like she curses and does all
02:14:55these kinds of things I thought she'd be
02:14:57so prim and proper with that British
02:14:59accent and I was like no she has the low
02:15:02class British accent not the high class
02:15:04British accent she's from you know she's
02:15:06from the hood and he goes oh you mean
02:15:08like the people in top boy and I said
02:15:11well yeah and so it's bringing the world
02:15:14uh you know closer together a much
02:15:16better understanding of each other so
02:15:18there we go Kudos kudos to global
02:15:20distribution of creativity um all right
02:15:23well that is our show for today and
02:15:25thank you for listening and please join
02:15:27us next time on the mark
02:15:34invention
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