00:00welcome to the a 16z podcast I'm Michael
00:02Copeland after the smart phone what
00:05business has the global scale in terms
00:07of people and profits that make it
00:09attractive for tech companies to turn
00:10their attention and capital towards the
00:13answer according to a 16 ZZZ Benedict
00:16Devens is the car business yes
00:20benedict is our mobile expert and sure
00:22cars are mobile but what does your
00:24iPhone have to do with your ride more
00:27than you might expect Evan says Evans
00:30offers his vision of the future of cars
00:32and perhaps the future of today's
00:34biggest technology companies who will
00:36build these cars who will own them and
00:38who or what will do the driving in this
00:41segment of the a 16 Z podcast Benedict
00:45welcome hello let's talk about what cars
00:49and mobile have to do with each other
00:51what cars in the smartphone industry
00:52have to do with each other and what even
00:55brought this subject to mind for you
00:56well what brought it to mind is that
00:58Apple and Google like getting into the
01:00car business and Tesla is in the car
01:03business as a technology company and
01:05uber is in the car business as well and
01:07obviously we have an investment in lift
01:08as well and so cars and technology are
01:11sort of colliding in a way that mobile
01:12phones and Technology collided seven
01:15years ago and you know other things have
01:17collided in the past and it struck me
01:20this kind of maybe four separate
01:23building blocks to think about that kind
01:25of linked together and sort of support
01:27each other one is electric cars one is
01:31the rise of on-demand services one is
01:34the rise potentially of sort of
01:37autonomous self-driving cars which kind
01:40of come out of both of those things and
01:42sort of feet into both of those things
01:44and then one which is perhaps slightly
01:46shorter term is sort of the software in
01:48the car and how that becomes something
01:51that isn't made by the car company
01:52anymore perhaps and becomes something
01:54that gets into the smartphone ecosystem
01:56and all of those kind of interact with
01:57each other well let's take those in turn
02:00then and start with the electric car and
02:04how that's a sort of lends itself to
02:06technology and technology play a la
02:07Tesla and others well the thing that the
02:11sort of most obvious and visible if
02:12people think about here
02:13is the environment in renewable energy
02:16and pollution and so on I think equally
02:19interesting from a technology and
02:21engineering point of view is that you
02:22change the mechanical complexity of the
02:24vehicle when you go show electric
02:26instead of internal combustion engines
02:29and you change and so you don't have a
02:32transmission you don't have a gearbox
02:33you don't have all these moving parts
02:35anymore and so that changes potentially
02:37things like maintenance but it also
02:39changes kind of the complexity of
02:40creating the thing and it changes what
02:42the supply chain might look like it
02:43changes what the capital structure of
02:45making cars might look like and so a
02:49little bit like what happened with pcs
02:52or smartphones 10 years and 20 years ago
02:54you move to a point that it may be
02:57easier for people who are not in the car
02:59business to be in the car business
03:00because the amount of stuffs that you
03:02have to make how that stuff gets made
03:04how it gets how the value chain around
03:06that looks gets much much much simpler
03:08right yeah obviously Tesla is the best
03:10example of this but the the question
03:12then becomes where does the value in a
03:14electric car lie and and for Tesla it's
03:17clearly in the battery for example yeah
03:18it's the battery and instead of the
03:20engine clearly and but there's a sort of
03:24a bit of a longer-term point which is
03:26well okay so who owns these things and
03:29how do they move around which is where
03:30things like on demand and self-driving
03:33cars come in and of course you can have
03:36those completely independently of
03:37electric cars that makes it a bit easier
03:39for some things but you can have it you
03:41could have a self-driving petrol diesel
03:43car or steam powered car if you wanted
03:45to and I think there's there's a kind of
03:47separate but linked together and the
03:49thing with on demand is you know it's
03:50sort of widely discussed now is that
03:52you're going to reach an equilibrium
03:53point of the supply of drivers and it
03:57gets drawn in by the price and the price
03:59that will drive in riders and the number
04:00of riders that get drawn in and that
04:02will be some percentage of people in
04:04each city and it'll be different in each
04:05city depending on the topology on the
04:08layout of the city is this calculus
04:10between owning versus between owning and
04:12a bet versus owning a car versus just
04:15calling a car versus leaving a car at
04:17home and whether you commute with it on
04:18use of the weekends on you know how
04:20whether you have one family car instead
04:22of two all of those kinds of things it's
04:24going to change car ownership it's not
04:25going to change your complete
04:26but it will change it and we'll change
04:28it kind of different degrees in
04:29different places now the the what's
04:33interesting about self-driving cars is
04:35how much they change that and so just as
04:37tests as electric cars and not just
04:40about pollution self-driving cars I
04:41think are not just about accidents um
04:43and I think the way to think about that
04:46is kind of imagine your scenario you go
04:49out with your family to dinner in a busy
04:52city and instead of having to find a
04:55parking space your car drops you off and
04:57so you don't think you'd it and
05:00previously you might have taken public
05:01transport because it was so hard part
05:02but now your car can just walk you off
05:04and no no cars parked on either side of
05:06the road says twice as much fun for
05:07traffic of course and then when your
05:09car's dropped you off where does it go
05:11does it drive outside the city center to
05:12a cheap car park instead of the
05:14expensive car park around the corner or
05:16does it spend the next two hours driving
05:18people around for money and then pick
05:21if so and so the point is what
05:24self-driving does is it transforms the
05:26layout of the city because things like
05:29parking and gas stations and strip malls
05:34and the kind of the whole layout of the
05:36retail and commercial real estate starts
05:38to change because it's all built around
05:39parked parking as much as it's built
05:41around driving you have to kind of look
05:44at kind of a satellite map of any
05:46American city and look at all the
05:47parking space and so that all starts to
05:50reshape but then the ownership changes
05:52because you suddenly you have vastly
05:54more cars available for an on-demand
05:56service and those cars don't have a
05:59driver and the insurance is probably
06:00costs half as much because self-driving
06:03cars don't have accidents in the same
06:04way and there's no yeah-oh it's what we
06:05our rate will be lower and so the price
06:08of those self-driving of those on-demand
06:10services will be lower and so the
06:12equilibrium point changes again and then
06:15you have all sorts of and so you know
06:17that as the point is that self-driving
06:18cars set for make on-demand service is
06:20much much much bigger and they tend to
06:23result therefore in many fewer people I
06:26mean that's my question then like who
06:28owns these self-driving cars is it sort
06:30of the Airbnb model where I I'm at
06:32dinner and I you know send my car out to
06:34make money while I'm eating or is it
06:36this fleet kind of a view of the world
06:38where some other law
06:40organization whether that's Google or
06:42somebody else owns these cars well again
06:43this is kind of a question of where the
06:44equity equilibrium point settle down so
06:47on the one hand you could argue well
06:49everybody will have a car and they're
06:51all - I have people around so you won't
06:52there will be no like fleet of
06:53independent cars it will just be a
06:55person's Cup I don't think we go that
06:57far but the other argument would be why
07:00would you need to own one if they're all
07:02of these out there of course if
07:03everybody said that if someone would
07:05have to buy a fleet of cars to service
07:07that so there's obviously that's kind of
07:08it this is sort of a cycle in there
07:10somewhere now the challenge in here is
07:12if the if there is a fleet of on-demand
07:15car self-driving cars who buys them and
07:18how do they get bought well right now
07:21well is it going to be an individual
07:23person who takes out a lease and sends
07:25their car out to earn money it's an
07:27obvious you're not going to be the
07:27driver because there's no driver
07:29so is it owned by an individual always
07:31it owned by somebody with a big balance
07:32sheet buys 500 of them and has the right
07:34financial strategy for doing that and
07:36once you knew that that that could be
07:38based on demand and on demand self
07:40driving and once you go there well how
07:42is it that those cars are getting chosen
07:44they're not getting chosen based on how
07:46nice it feels when you slam the door and
07:48you know the diamond-cut chamfered edges
07:50they're getting bought in the same way
07:52that Hertz buys cars and they're getting
07:55bought in the same way that a big
07:56company buys pcs that is to say they're
07:59bought on you know criteria that are not
08:01much to do with ease of youth or flair
08:03it's it's busy and boring yeah but you
08:08know how easy it is an idiot open the
08:10case and change the network card or
08:11whatever it is that you need to do these
08:12days so and so that becomes interesting
08:16for Apple and potentially for Tesla
08:18because it means that you know if the
08:20drivers if the people riding around and
08:21all the people choosing these things
08:23then maybe apples strengths
08:26don't really get to come into play
08:27because you might have choosing it now
08:29obviously this kind of variation within
08:30that so you pull out your phone and you
08:32order you know you order the cheap one
08:33or the expensive one or the Apple or you
08:35know maybe you get a choice of course
08:36when you pull out when you when you
08:38order it but on the other hand if you
08:40order like an uber black car you don't
08:42decide whether it's going to be a
08:43mercury or lit where there's gonna be a
08:45Lincoln or Cadillac or the Mercedes he
08:47just order that and what comes comes so
08:53then there's kind of another point which
08:55is to do with the redesign of cars of
08:57course which is if you remove you know
09:00obviously electric changes to design but
09:02if you remove their mechanical controls
09:04the manual controls then you can faster
09:06to fundamentally redesign what the
09:07inside of a car might look like and how
09:08it might be structured I mean right now
09:11when you look at a Tesla you wouldn't
09:12how you and be able to tell that it
09:13doesn't got a petrol engine inside it if
09:15you didn't know you know it's still got
09:17a big engine compartment in the front
09:18there's just no engine in it and so when
09:22you go to electric and self driving you
09:25can kind of think quite fundamentally
09:27about how you design a car you might you
09:29might also think about things like crash
09:30tests like if there's no man if the
09:32accident rate changes all the accidents
09:34look different than the way you design
09:36the car might change as well yeah I mean
09:37I you can imagine it again like changing
09:40the space and the layer I mean it's
09:42really an interesting problem or
09:45opportunity yeah I mean people don't
09:47need to face forward right and you don't
09:49need to have all that space in the front
09:50for the co for the dashboard right you
09:52tired at the end of the day you know
09:54you're lying down in the car yeah
09:56exactly and we won't take that
09:58conversation any further but then you
10:02need to the point again you get all
10:04kinds of sort of second-order effects so
10:06you know I think Carl Sagan said that it
10:08was easy to protect mass ownership of
10:09cars but hard to pollute Walmart right
10:11so what do you see then you've already
10:13described empty streets but yeah you
10:16look at photos of the world from the
10:181930s and all the street of your own
10:20city from the 1930s and you'll see all
10:22those streets where you know there's a
10:23car park every five feet all the way
10:25along the road and there's no cars
10:26parked and as the roads are twice as
10:28wide um the other thing that someone
10:30mentioned to me on Twitter was cycling
10:31is if you could if you could cycle every
10:35day and no you would not get hit by
10:37accident I mean if you fall over then
10:38it's your fault but you would know that
10:40no one would hit you through
10:42carelessness maybe more people would
10:43cycle if you had no manually driven cars
10:48on the road then you don't need
10:49stoplights anymore and the cars can just
10:51scream through all the junctions
10:53stackin before and behind each other the
10:55first time that that happens and you as
10:57a passenger go through that there's a
10:58video that you have on your blog post
11:00which everyone should watch but it's a
11:01frightening game of Frogger where
11:03nothing gets killed yeah exactly it's
11:07watching a circus act or something it's
11:09like you know people whizzing past each
11:11other at 40 miles an hour five feet
11:13apart you know about crossing each other
11:15with right angles and of course if it's
11:17all moved into software that you can do
11:18that so you get all kinds of changes in
11:21how you layout roads and how you would
11:23lay out you know cities and what you
11:25would think about what we tell would
11:26look like cycling I think is interesting
11:28the impact on people's time is
11:31interesting because you know presuming
11:33for the new iPod for anything else you
11:34might live in different places and in a
11:36very long term like what I kind of had a
11:37multi-decade view but in the meantime if
11:39you're driving for 20 minutes every day
11:40but you're not having to look at the
11:41wheel then what are you doing well
11:43you're probably on your smartphone which
11:45I thought so the time spent online or
11:46time spent looking at the internet
11:49changes because nobody's doing that now
11:53but on the other hand what happens to
11:56radio if half of all radio listening is
11:57happening when people are driving well
11:59if you could be doing other things maybe
12:00you might listen to radio so you know
12:01all these kind of weird kind of
12:03unpredictable effects as kind of the
12:04balls bounce around on the snooker table
12:06on the pool table and kind of bang into
12:07each other then you also of course as a
12:11sort of the big question is what happens
12:12to public transport and where does that
12:13leave people on low incomes because
12:15you're kind of if you're kind of cherry
12:18picking people off public transport
12:20routes then you're going to have buses
12:21that are emptier and emptier and the
12:23cost of those buses becomes out of
12:24support on the other hand self-driving
12:28cars get very very cheap how cheap if
12:32you are someone on a low income and
12:33you're commuting to work on public
12:35transport and it takes you an hour and a
12:36half and four buses well maybe by
12:40self-driving car might actually about a
12:42bit be a better option for you might
12:43even cost the same you know you don't
12:44really know so there's certainly kind of
12:47questions in all kinds of different
12:48direction but there's also nothing in
12:50figured there's nothing then to prevent
12:52self-driving buses and or sort of you
12:54know a fleet of transportation being
12:56owned by government for you not having a
13:00driver in the bus means you you know
13:02could you could participate in these
13:03kind of high-speed junctions and things
13:05that anything is self driving buses it's
13:06kind of transformative in the way to
13:07self-driving cars because it's always
13:08good right you know that's the space
13:11taken up by the driver isn't really the
13:12point but no what I was more thinking is
13:15you know if you live somewhere that
13:16served adequately by a bus but not
13:21you've got to walk 10 minutes to get to
13:22the bus stop or 20 minutes to get to the
13:24bus stop then you might never take a bus
13:27again mm-hmm and so the bus routes as
13:30when you get out of dense urban areas
13:32might empty out to some extent bus
13:36routes in dense urban areas might fill
13:38up because they might be more efficient
13:39because they can they don't get you
13:41don't get traffic jams anymore so you
13:42can get on the bus and it goes all the
13:43way down that busy street without
13:45stopping and then lets you off where you
13:46want to go so you get all once you the
13:49kind of conceptual thing that were
13:50looking at here is really shifting
13:51public shifting Road Transport from
13:53being sort of circuit-switched in a
13:55sense there's no perfect sense but
13:57really kind of being circus which two
13:58packets which you switched well
13:59certainly moving probably transport
14:01integrating public transport with cars
14:03into a packet switch model well let's
14:06push on that circuit versus packet
14:08example and because that then gets to
14:11who's best suited to be doing this and
14:13so when you say circuits is sort of this
14:15manual I'm driving I'm you know yeah I
14:18mean it's all perfect analogy maybe you
14:19could argue it's like it's TDMA in
14:21effect or everyone's kind of got that
14:22time slot and you move to wideband CDMA
14:24like why would you have work why would
14:26you have lanes on the highway anymore
14:27why would you not just have kind of
14:29swarms of cars streaming down the
14:31highway without stopping in any
14:33positioned in any place that you like on
14:36the road just as long as there's five
14:37feet between them or two feet between
14:38them depending what you want to do you
14:40could start having Pelecanos of cars so
14:42you got 15 cars all going down the
14:43highway two feet behind each other at
14:45150 miles an hour it sounds like this is
14:56again I mentioned kind of one sense in
14:58which it's potentially challenging for
15:00Apple in that it's some you know who is
15:02it that's buying these things but
15:04there's another point which is it is
15:05which is what's the hard part of the
15:07software here there's at the heart there
15:09is a hard part in the not hitting things
15:11in actually the the car itself but then
15:13there is all kind of the routing and
15:15load balancing and the optimization and
15:16the pre positioning of all cars because
15:18it's one thing to get into your people
15:20your lyft or you'll get to actually or
15:21whatever and it it to summon one and the
15:24nearest one comes to you it's another
15:25one at kind of 5:00 in the morning all
15:29of those 150 or 500 or a thousand
15:32automated self-driving car
15:34leave their charging stations where
15:37should they be at seven o'clock in the
15:39morning when people start summoning them
15:41where should they be at 7:30 where
15:42should they be 11:00 at 11:06 and where
15:45do you move them and which card you send
15:47to take which person to which route and
15:49what do they do on the way and whether
15:50they go after that and so that kind of
15:53mass positioning of hundreds or
15:55thousands of tens of thousands of
15:57vehicles in a city becomes an
15:58interesting challenge now it may be that
16:00there will be some transformative
16:02breakthrough in self-driving cars and
16:04that's the easy part and the routing is
16:05hard it may well be that the routing is
16:08over time but it's just kind of worse
16:10sort of thinking you know yes they're
16:14not hitting things is hard but what is
16:16it that's going to fundamentally shape
16:17what's going on in a city it's probably
16:21going to be the routing of the apps that
16:23kind of that broad and matter system of
16:26course this is why Matt's one of the
16:27reasons why maps have been become so
16:28kind of strategic and this is also we
16:30talked about this in the last part but
16:31that those three German car companies
16:33just spent a huge amount of money on
16:35yeah that's a good sentence an ocular
16:37spent a lot of money or maps and one
16:41layer to that is that having met now is
16:45a kind of strategic asset where it used
16:48to be kind of an accessory in the way
16:49that your CD player was an accessory in
16:51you without happily like have a Bosch CD
16:53player in your car and you didn't know
16:55you know any mum probably didn't really
16:56mind that they were making a CD player
16:58today it's more important in the future
17:02of the map is actually telling the car
17:04where to go then it becomes much more
17:06important because gleave there's kind of
17:08ears all kinds of interim steps here
17:10it's a bit like you know steamships that
17:11have Marcin sales for the first 20 years
17:12just in case and so you know the first
17:15self-driving car is not going to be part
17:17of a mesh of every car in the city
17:20you're going to get into the car and say
17:21I want to go here and it will have to
17:22work out how together right right and
17:24sorry will have to have his own map and
17:26its own route yeah 50 years in the
17:28future it may not to the extent that
17:31anyone has the faintest idea what's
17:33going to be happening in 50 years
17:34if it happens if we shift from sort of
17:37circuits to Packard's if we shift to
17:38electric cars and we shifted this sort
17:40of software driven thing does it get on
17:43the same kind of refresh do we replace
17:45our cars every two years do we you know
17:47upgrades every month I mean does it
17:49become like our smartphones do you think
17:51well you know someone posted a picture
17:53of their tester dashboard
17:55saying do you want to upgrade to
17:56ludicrous speed for $10,000 which is
17:58kind of a quite a chunky in-app purchase
18:05well it's an interesting sort of thing
18:07in here that that you when a car becomes
18:09electric it becomes software and so your
18:11upgrades you know instead of paying an
18:13extra $5,000 for the sports gearbox
18:15there's no gearbox so what do you do as
18:18a car company do you just say well
18:19though we'll just kind of flip a switch
18:21somewhere in the software and we'll make
18:23it the sports one and that will be an
18:24extra $5,000 do they lend male you a bad
18:27 you can stick on the back to show
18:28everybody that you bought the sports one
18:30is there like a little it's like a
18:32little screen on the back that says I he
18:34spent ten thousand dollars it's sports
18:35mate now it's like that app that there
18:38was an app in the early days of the App
18:40Store it would cost five thousand
18:41dollars and it just said I'm rich that's
18:44what people do with their cars but it's
18:47almost like you're overclocking the car
18:48you know it's like your hat it's like
18:49you know you buy a software application
18:50and you have to upgrade it with his
18:52purchase but the stuff is the code is
18:54all there right I'm just the same with a
18:56car well okay so you bring up
18:57overclocking and and the argument on the
18:59other side will be that people love
19:01their cars when people love to drive and
19:03people you know love the smell on the
19:05sound of a internal combustion engine
19:10okay okay some people do and some of
19:13those people will still keep a car maybe
19:15people loved horses too people really
19:17loved horses I mean way more people
19:20loved horses and loved cars
19:22horses are easy to love that's true and
19:25yet this interesting analogy here
19:27because of course the you know the one
19:30of the fundamental advantages of cork of
19:32cars over horses essentially again was
19:34you have to feed a horse all the time
19:36and so just having the horse of itself
19:38was costing you money all the time
19:40whereas never mind you know keeping it
19:43warm and groomed and the vet and the
19:44blacksmith and everything else whereas
19:46you put a car in a garage and forget
19:47about it for six months it is still
19:49there right right um and there's a sort
19:51of an interesting analog here as you go
19:53to a self-driving coal you don't need a
19:54driver anymore how far out are we I mean
19:59we hear from Google we
20:01know that there's rumors and and kind of
20:02little tidbits of Apple hiring Tesla
20:05engineers etc but what stands in the way
20:08from the this picture that you paint um
20:12well I don't think there's anything
20:14structural that stands in the way of
20:16Apple making a car a electric car that's
20:19manually driven that's just like time
20:21and money and effort making a
20:24self-driving car we do not yet have the
20:26technology to make self-driving cars
20:28Google is working on it
20:32Tesla is probably working on it for all
20:35we know I met mover may well be working
20:37on it Apple if they have will certainly
20:41how far they've gone whether they plan
20:43for that to be the car whether they will
20:44make a manually driven one first I don't
20:46know but there's kind of as I said at
20:48the beginning there's a kind of multiple
20:49set four blocks here you can have and
20:52you can have an electric car can change
20:53quite a lot without being self-driving
20:54or on-demand you know you can have
20:56on-demand services to change a lot
20:57without self-driving but then when you
20:59have any you can have on demand and
21:00self-driving without electric for that
21:02matter although probably not very much
21:04but when you have all of that in place
21:06at the same time you know your
21:10self-driving now we go back to electric
21:11it's a lot easier if yourself to having
21:13car to charge itself with an electric
21:14socket than putting gasoline into it you
21:16have a lot use even a lot safer you know
21:18I wouldn't be entirely comfortable
21:19having a robot arm putting gasoline into
21:21electricity is kind of ok yes that seems
21:23very elaborate too to make that happen
21:25it's a little bit safer so when you put
21:27all of these things together that's we
21:28really went all of each other all of our
21:30changes so we've talked about how Apple
21:33and Google and and others uber etc may
21:37be getting into this sort of carbon as
21:39themselves but but it is it a good
21:41business and and why would you want to
21:44really well I think there's several
21:46answers to that one of them is that if I
21:51read a piece of while ago saying kind of
21:53a smartphone it's a new Sun and the
21:54smartphone is the dominant it's the
21:56biggest thing in the tech industry there
21:59are close to 2 billion phones sold every
22:02year those are converting to smartphones
22:04it's a suite 400 million 3 or 400
22:06billion dollars in revenue every year
22:08and that's much bigger than they're
22:09making TVs or making pcs or certainly
22:11much bigger than making watches or any
22:13other kind of channel
22:13sima technology product bigger than the
22:15SmartWatch or the iPad or anything else
22:16will be so the smartphone is kind of the
22:18Sun that dominates that but then you
22:19think okay well what else is is there
22:21anything else it is as big as a
22:22smartphone this is the thing that is
22:24owned by going to be owned by four
22:26billion people on earth and replace
22:27every two years is there something else
22:28that has that silent kind of sight scale
22:30and there's toothbrushes and the shoes
22:33and then there's cars so if you then
22:36look at cars you have this industry that
22:38has much higher revenue over a trillion
22:41dollars in annual revenue for making
22:43them selling cards but that unit sales
22:45of course are much much much lower
22:46because the average prices is tens of
22:48thousands in dollars much much higher
22:49yeah exactly and so if you add up
22:52Mercedes BMW Audi Lexus combined you get
22:55to five or six million units a year for
22:58over two hundred billion dollars which
23:01is almost as big which is kind of more
23:03see kind of the same ballpark as the
23:05iPhone because the iPhone is I think a
23:07hundred and fifty billion dollars a year
23:08right in the last 12 months and so it's
23:11kind of an interesting one here because
23:12on the one hand you have this enormous
23:13industry much bigger than anything in
23:15tech coincidentally mobile network
23:18operators the revenue is about 1.2
23:21trillion dollars as well so cars and
23:22mobile networks are about the same size
23:23but much bigger than anything in tech
23:25but on the other hand if you add it up
23:28Mercedes and BMW you would get to maybe
23:32the same revenue as the iPhone well and
23:35so and less profit I'm sure there are
23:37some cars in the auto world that have
23:40the margin of an iPhone but they
23:42certainly aren't made by Toyota no
23:44exactly that's not where the young
23:46that's not whether um where the money is
23:48so obviously kind of new smaller
23:50companies like Porsche and so on that
23:52may make a decent profit and so you know
23:54mobile phones were if your Apple mobile
23:56phones have a great business so great
23:58gross margin business cars have
23:59localized margins of course nobody other
24:01than Apple is making any money at all in
24:02the phone business so it's kind of an
24:03imperfect comparison to make but it's
24:06just kind of it's it's intriguing to me
24:07just to kind of think well what other
24:09thing is after phones obviously there'll
24:11be another tech product after phone with
24:12us augmented reality maybe your folding
24:15screens or something or you know contact
24:17lenses but what other thing is that's as
24:20big because here is tech that just kind
24:22of eats up other industries but you know
24:25Google by itself this year probably will
24:27the same revenue with the newspaper
24:29industry the same ad revenue is the
24:30newspaper industry the entire global
24:32advertising industry is only 500 billion
24:38so and all for that steel surgeon that
24:39is TV and I thought about this internet
24:41and of those kind of other so like there
24:43aren't many other things that are kind
24:45of as big as phones and and TV and and
24:48cars of one of them and so when you
24:51combine that with all the stuff that
24:53I've reasons I've said why kind of cars
24:54again to become more of a technology
24:56product and they're going to change a
24:57lot in the next few decades that's kind
25:00of why it becomes interesting does it
25:02break down along similar lines I know
25:04you know you've made arguments for why
25:06maybe Apple and it's kind of rarified
25:08product lineup isn't well suited to an
25:11on-demand car world where we don't own
25:13our own cars but meaning is there gonna
25:15be an iOS version of the car this high
25:17end kind of Apple II you know
25:19high-margin thing and then the Android
25:20version where you know you you can pay
25:22as little as you want it's an
25:25interesting one you know what will the
25:26car world look like in when this
25:28transition has happened in say twenty or
25:31thirty years you know what will be the
25:33distribution of luxury high-end
25:37sports cars supercars limousines and so
25:40on what will that look like what new
25:41kind of a vehicle will get created you
25:42know there will be new vehicles created
25:44in the same way that like the people
25:46carrier has been created in our lifetime
25:48or you know the pickup truck became this
25:49mass-market consumer product in our
25:52there will be new types of car that get
25:53created one suspicion is that Apple will
25:56like the high-end because it tends to
25:58like not making compromises on product
26:00or hit prices below and beyond a certain
26:02point right and one suspicion is that
26:05Apple won't make a $10,000 car one would
26:08wonder what happens to car prices as we
26:10move to electric and as we move to
26:11self-driving and what happens to the
26:14price of owning a car if it's
26:16self-driving it never has an accident
26:18the insurance is a third of the cost
26:20you're only paying for electricity so
26:22you know the the kind of the question
26:25was what's a high-end car kind of
26:26changes because it might high-end car
26:27might be cheaper but yeah these are all
26:30kind of unknown questions as to how this
26:31stuff will shake out well I look forward
26:34to the day honestly I as a person who
26:36drives an electric car not a Tesla a
26:37Fiat you know I'm looking for battery
26:41told you to get better I'm looking for
26:42the software to get a hell of a lot
26:43better and lord knows I would like to
26:45not drive so so you're using it you're
26:47using Italian software well made in
26:51Detroit though yes which is worse
26:53yeah I believe me there's the only thing
26:56that goes wrong with my cars a software
26:58so I welcome the day that you describe
27:01and hopefully sooner rather than later
27:03Benedict thank you thank you
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