00:00hi everyone welcome to the a 6 & Z
00:02podcast this episode featuring Chris
00:05Dixon Kyle Russell and Benedict Evans is
00:07one of our hallway conversations about
00:09all things VR given recent announcements
00:11and events the first 10 minutes is a
00:14deep dive into the players in the
00:15ecosystem the second third focuses on
00:17content and applications beyond gaming
00:19and finally thoughts on we're history
00:22the hype cycle for new tech and Moore's
00:24law tell us what may come next who's in
00:28hi it's Chris Dixon I'm here with my
00:30colleague Kyle Russell and Bennett Evans
00:32and we're gonna talk about virtual
00:33reality because last week was a big week
00:35for VR there was the PlayStation VR
00:37announcements Google daydream and oculus
00:40connect which was packed with
00:42announcements so a lot of good stuff and
00:44let's get going Kyle like what were your
00:46high-level takeaways from last week so
00:49with the Google announcement they were
00:51showing off a lot of hardware that you
00:53know Google is trying to spin as they're
00:55doing it in-house taking more control
00:57over the ecosystem becoming more
00:59apple-like when it comes to hardware but
01:01one aspect of that was daydream which
01:03they announced earlier this year at
01:06their Google i/o event the idea being
01:08they are taking kind of the mobile
01:10approach to VR that oculus and Samsung
01:13had and are kind of bringing it to the
01:15rest of the Android ecosystem so so this
01:17is this just to clarify like so oculus
01:19has two products right the oculus rift
01:20which is their high end and the high end
01:22headset and the gear VR which is a
01:24partnership with Samsung which is low
01:26end and so far Google has built a very
01:29similar product to the low end but has
01:31hopefully has high ends but we haven't
01:34seen yet the rumor cycle says like oh
01:36they've got the standalone headset oh
01:38they're gonna announce at i/o they
01:39cancelled it actually next year they
01:41might announce it we'll see where that
01:43yes everyone wants to do something
01:45that's somewhere in between those two
01:46points so it's not the high-end headset
01:48with the umbilical cord god box PC
01:50but neither it is is it just your phone
01:52clipped into a crate well it's the Santa
01:53Cruz prototype but oculus showed the
01:55luge for me that was the big news last
01:57week yeah but simple well Google
01:59announced was a gear VR yeah so
02:00basically they've taken the
02:02optimizations that oculus gave Samsung
02:04so taking your ímu data into account so
02:07the motion sensors in the phone and
02:09making the what's called motion to
02:11photon latency your head moving
02:12to what you see in this inside the
02:14headset adapting and doing that quick
02:16enough so that you don't have nausea
02:17they've like made all the optimizations
02:19to make that function and built into
02:21Android for everyone and so if you buy
02:23like a four hundred ish or higher
02:25Android phone that is with a certain
02:27tier of Qualcomm chip an OLED screen
02:30that refreshes fast enough if you have
02:32all those things in the phone the
02:33software lets you take that phone and
02:35drop it into a daydream headset whether
02:37it's the one that Google announced or in
02:39the future ones based on their reference
02:40design and basically now the entire
02:42Android ecosystem has that but to be
02:44clear the point is it's kind of light
02:45mark it's all exactly what Microsoft was
02:47doing sort of 10 or 15 years ago with
02:49PCs it's you don't have to know what
02:50processor and what screen and everything
02:52it's got it's just like this is a
02:53daydream compliant phone and it's a
02:55daydream compliant headset so you can
02:56just buy the phone and you know that
02:58it'll work but it's just I mean like
03:00it's missing such critical features like
03:02positional tracking yeah the big
03:03question is is Google I mean supposedly
03:05they have I don't know we've heard many
03:07hundreds eight hundred thousand people
03:09working on VR they've got to be working
03:11more on more than just a gear VR yeah
03:13come to you right I mean they got it you
03:15presumably there's a effort there to
03:16build a sound alone position which right
03:18whenever you throw out like oh daydream
03:20is interesting because it could expose
03:21millions of people who buy Android
03:23high-end phones to VR you know what
03:25people who are super VR enthusiasts push
03:27back with is oh but it doesn't have
03:29positional tracking and then other nerds
03:30show up and say oh but there's this
03:32project tango thing from Google it's not
03:34even like super nerds I mean Google's
03:35own best VR product is tilt brush which
03:38doesn't work in sure and it IO all the
03:41things that they showed up we're
03:42actually running on the HTC vive
03:43everything they demo doesn't work on
03:45their own hardware so like there's
03:46there's there's an internal conflict
03:47there it's not just like a high-end
03:49thing I mean there's a tension in here
03:50within Google everyone maybe we should
03:52sort of subordinate and talk about the
03:53Google event cuz Google and now it's
03:54basically a generic high-end Android
03:56phone they will have their logo on it
03:58it's the first one that were there yes
04:01so they've rebranded the Nexus product
04:03project pixel it's now got their own
04:05brand on it let's feel getting someone
04:06in China to make it I mean something is
04:07HTC bits like a bit it's narrower to
04:09their brand and they're saying they're
04:10doing more the design wasn't a nexus
04:12oberon yeah but you had HTC as well okay
04:14so they've got HTC LG oh it was so it's
04:18like the I Do's it's like we've designed
04:19some of this ourselves and now it's our
04:21brand but they sort of just the reason
04:23thing is it's kind of interesting here
04:26for as long as Android has existed
04:29there's been this fragmentation issue
04:30and the fragmentation issue has been
04:32both a you've got three different you've
04:34got no handsets good operating system
04:36updates say you've got like three
04:37different operating systems out there in
04:39the wild and B you've got ten thousand
04:41phones and then you have therefore
04:42you've got ten thousand possible
04:43configurations and Google has always
04:46been kind of trying to get the handset
04:48makers to do operating system updates
04:49and it's never worked but they sort of
04:51got around that part of the
04:53fragmentation problem on though for
04:55other own services by putting Google
04:56Play services on top of everything and
04:58say basically every Google Android phone
04:59out there has got Google Play services
05:01on it and that's updated every week or
05:02two so any new Google stuff like Google
05:05message your Google assistant or
05:06anything else just appears on the phone
05:07automatically but you've still got
05:0910,000 phones with 10,000 different GPU
05:11and CPU and sensor configurations and
05:13you've got low in phone as its claimed
05:14they've got a Jeep that claim they have
05:15a gyroscope but don't even have a
05:16gyroscope they just report random
05:18readings all kinds of stuff is going on
05:19and so that was kind of the state of
05:21things in Android phones and so Google
05:24heaps kind of pushing trying to make
05:26like a high-end flagship to try and
05:27bully the other manufacturers into
05:28making and not they weren't doing their
05:30own phone tonight so and it's never
05:31worked and creating their own phone
05:33there's not yeah the thought is not it's
05:35gonna end fragmentation by selling by
05:37becoming her on the mark I just thought
05:39it's just gonna it's gonna it's like
05:40moral pressure also kind of thing that
05:42they they and previously the Nexus had
05:44no district so they're gonna create this
05:46thing where everyone else is gonna say
05:46okay we got to remove all the crap where
05:48we've got to remove all those things
05:51because we now see the light the beacon
05:53of theory the big change in the pixel is
05:56actually nothing to do with the phone
05:58it's that they're actually gonna go and
05:59sell it so they have some distribution
06:00rather than it just being on the website
06:02but it's not very much distribution it's
06:03like one Operator in America one
06:05operator in the UK one in Germany and so
06:07on so it's like if they get equipped go
06:09behind put billions of dollars behind
06:10this and they're going to make a $200
06:12phone a $400 phone a $600 phone then
06:14this gets interesting if they just made
06:16another generic kind phone and it's like
06:17it's on the website and you can have it
06:18if you want then it makes no difference
06:19but that's all kind of setting the scene
06:21my point is when you then go to VR the
06:25fact that you've got thousands of
06:26different configurations and GPUs and
06:28CPUs and who the hell knows what mean it
06:30was a limitation of cardboard it was but
06:32you can't provide a consistent
06:33experience as a developer you actually
06:35have no idea what's going to be the
06:36fragmentation becomes even more
06:38much more informants insensitive and so
06:41like option plan the part of the plan of
06:43daydream is to try and get rid of that
06:45there's five hundred phones we have to
06:47test against and get you to the point
06:49now actually we just need to test
06:50against daydream and Google will somehow
06:51try and abstract that and so like I
06:54think one of the the you can kind of see
06:56two scenarios going forward sort of
06:58scenario one is there is the Apple
07:00device there is the oculus device which
07:03feels like that's going to be sort of a
07:05forked Android standalone device in some
07:07way and then there is the Samsung thing
07:10an option two is there is the Apple
07:13device the Facebook device the Facebook
07:15Occulus device and then there is a
07:17hundred daydream devices and so if
07:19there's a hundred day two devices then
07:21the Facebook product you could argue
07:23ends up looking a bit like Kindle Fire
07:24instead of subscale squeezed out for
07:26condone bothers developing for it if on
07:28the other hand daydream doesn't work
07:29because there's still a hundred
07:30different things and nothing works right
07:32and it's kind of completely fragmented
07:33then he takes you Apple device the
07:36Facebook device and the Samsung device
07:38the Sony device the Google's of pixel
07:40device and it's actually much more just
07:43laying the kind of foundational
07:44framework to sort of set the stage and
07:46then they're gonna start rolling out
07:48better like high-end features like
07:50positional tracking or they're gonna
07:51start whatever they have a reference
07:52design for that so they have a reference
07:54design for the headset that de stripping
07:56two other Android makers there's also a
07:57project tango within Google which is
07:59working on a core technology you'd need
08:01for inside out positional tracking so
08:03from the phone being able to say I can
08:05see where I am in the world and I use
08:07that as kind of a reference point to you
08:09know when I'm walking around in a
08:11virtual space it looks at how close I am
08:13to the wall in the real world and uses
08:15that to mean field loss or to other
08:17option till last week the the examples
08:19of positional tracking that I had seen
08:21working were the hololens does a very
08:23good positional tracking like shockingly
08:25good google tango allegedly yes and it
08:29from a six point I should have seen it
08:31and then the Santa Cruz oculus thing
08:33last week was the first besides the
08:35hololens i've ever seen that does true
08:39yeah you've brought up santa cruz label
08:41time so i let's just talk about that
08:42because it was very exciting as an
08:43announcement so i'm santa cruz i was
08:46this prototype they showed which is a
08:47totally self-contained no tethered no
08:49connection to a pc full high-end headset
08:52Holy Grail I mean it needs to get
08:53cheaper and lighter and all these other
08:54things but but it's very close to the
08:55Holy Grail the headset itself was
08:57clearly a modified oculus rift but that
09:00says something about what the Santa Cruz
09:01will be when it's an actual product
09:03maybe sometime next year which is
09:04quality industrial design field
09:07materials wise quality of the $600
09:10oculus rift but with ease of use of
09:12we're actually probably easier to use
09:15than the gear VR in that it's not
09:16something you have to like ah pick out
09:18stick it into the phone correctly oh
09:20darn it my battery was too low I can't
09:22put it on right you put it on and
09:24something that almost like an iPad you
09:25leave on like your coffee table you can
09:27just hop in just to clarify the oculus
09:29rift is Mel $600 at $600 plus your
09:31$2,000 pieces right now $500 PC who was
09:34with a synchronous Space Warp yeah they
09:37just released a technology they released
09:41last week dramatically cuts down the
09:43minimum so there's a couple things also
09:45so which means also probably worth with
09:46a Mac soon if Apple ever gets their
09:48drivers updated so a couple of things
09:50that John Carmack also talked about
09:51during his keynote that I connected to
09:53the Santa Cruz prototype that I don't
09:56think he was necessarily doing it
09:58outright but one can assume that the
10:00standalone looks like a rift but is
10:03mobile with inside out positional
10:04tracking headset will still be running
10:06Android plus mobile hardware so hardware
10:09that Frankie looks like what's in the
10:10galaxy phones the power of the gear vr
10:12and so John Carmack talked about a
10:14couple of other things besides
10:16asynchronous space Wharf which is a
10:18fancy term for it can see how much
10:21rendering it's gonna have to do a little
10:22bit ahead of time and basically if it
10:25thinks it can't keep up it duplicates
10:27and slightly alters frames at 145th of a
10:30second and so you can't really tell that
10:32it's actually the keys and dramatically
10:34lowers the minimum GPU specs so you get
10:37like a 2x improvement performance
10:39improvement which just just unlocks all
10:41sorts of possibilities by the way like
10:42this today like the combination of
10:44Carmack and a brush keynotes like it was
10:46funny because like the oculus reddit was
10:48like kind of you know they were kind of
10:49bummed out for last four months because
10:50if I've got the controllers and they
10:52didn't it's like the you know it's the
10:54most so fired up now like after those
10:57two Wow like the a brush talk and the
11:01ya know I know G would be but then then
11:04the Santa and then the touch
11:06announcements and all the end the lineup
11:07announcement that was a good conference
11:09yeah the best conference in a long time
11:11so really quickly though john carmack
11:12two other things he touched on
11:13performance wise where multi-view
11:15rendering which basically means in VR
11:18you're rendering one image to each eye
11:20and that takes time because that you're
11:23basically rendering two 3d scenes but
11:25multi-view rendering lets you do kind of
11:27both views in one pass and he said that
11:30that would give us a 50% boost to
11:31performance on the gear vr but Samsung
11:33and Qualcomm there's things that are
11:35broken that they haven't fixed and such
11:37can't fix because of the control that
11:39carriers have on updates being pushed
11:40out to the phones and basically it was
11:42like if we could get that up 50% boost
11:44in performance and when we moved to
11:46volcán which is kind of the next
11:47generation rendering framework after
11:50it's replacing OpenGL essentially he
11:52thinks that they'll get another 50%
11:54so between asynchronous space-warp
11:56multi-view rendering that they would
11:58have control over their own into that's
12:02probably further out when they have
12:03hired a ninja's moore's law of you know
12:05etc like the standard but basically
12:08they'll be able to get to to 4x the
12:10performance of the gear vr based
12:12headsets with the same hardware because
12:14they'll own the full stack once they
12:16have the stands in the market and it's a
12:19full stack and we know apple's working
12:23on something around this I mean yeah we
12:25know if just from the companies they
12:26bought and the people they've hired but
12:27of course it's all mysterious as to what
12:29they're actually doing well they're
12:30building a spaceship that's yeah yeah I
12:32think the reason that you know we say
12:34everyone all the major tech players want
12:36to have the standalone headset it's one
12:38Facebook and therefore oculus doesn't
12:40want to be dependent on Samsung one
12:42hardware partner to you know if they
12:44think that a mobile ish headset not
12:46connected to a high-end gaming PC is how
12:48this will take off you don't want to
12:49have your fate tied to one player I mean
12:51especially just looking at the note
12:53seven kind of fiasco happening with
12:55phones explode and also in the fat was
12:57the gear VR phone this fall the hardware
12:58guys like look at HTC they were the
13:00first ones to do a deal with Android
13:01whatever it was ten years ago and as I
13:03worked out like they're almost bankrupt
13:05right like so these Hardware guys are
13:06all saying okay we don't want to do the
13:08place we've seen this movie before
13:09outsourcing the software to Google and
13:11our Google and specifically or Facebook
13:13or whatever pick your Silicon Valley
13:14company there lies zero margins yes
13:16there lies zero margins and explosions
13:18and all these other kinds of bad things
13:19and so therefore you know let's not do
13:22that again which is why HTC announced
13:24their ten billion dollar VR software
13:26the truce that existed during the
13:28Android era is not gonna exist during
13:29the VR er I don't think I mean right I
13:31mean they're both gonna go out each
13:32other and just everyone's gonna want to
13:34own the whole thing but it's hard not to
13:35see this playing out something like the
13:38way that Android slash pcs played out
13:41which is that there is the people who
13:43are there is a company that has a full
13:45stack from top to bottom and the scale
13:47to design and build that and it feels
13:48like that's Apple and can pull right
13:51down to the software tools and the
13:52developer tools and everything else and
13:53then there is a broad math ecosystem
13:56that leverages the whole of Shenzhen
13:57which was first winner Intel and now is
14:01what Android has done and the leveraging
14:03the heart of Shenzhen you get a trade
14:05off if you get fragmentation and you get
14:06a slightly worse experience but you get
14:08a billion devices and klee what Google
14:10is trying to do with a dream is say well
14:11that's what you know maybe Apple will
14:13make something or maybe oculus maybe
14:14well the Apple or Q let said have a
14:15high-end thing but there's going to be
14:17this every $400 phone you can buy the
14:19$50 cradle and you can have a great VR
14:21experience if that's not the way it
14:23works well then you can buy $400 you can
14:25but there will be $5,500 $400 VR
14:28headsets out there from different
14:29companies or people 50 but maybe not 10
14:31so they want to get that whole scale
14:33ecosystem going and that of course gets
14:36you the economies of scale and drives
14:37the cost down and gets you know
14:38penetration and everything else yeah
14:40we'll see I mean the big question with
14:41Apple right obviously is post Steve Jobs
14:44Apple was that pre juice to see back you
14:47know is that Steve Jobs Apple and that's
14:49far if they haven't released a really
14:51much of anything that's that's worked
14:53since the iPhone so I guess we'll see
14:56how they do on VR haven't talked about
14:58Sony you know back when we were involved
15:00with oculus in 2013 really only it was
15:02sony and oculus building headsets and
15:04Sony's credit they've been in this since
15:06pre valve free Google pre presumably
15:09Apple and have produced a really good
15:11product yeah I know I actually went to
15:13the PlayStation office in San Mateo back
15:17when I was still a reporter at
15:18TechCrunch and it's amazing to see they
15:20actually started working on VR
15:22prototypes when they were working on
15:24PlayStation Move which was
15:25their answer to them the Nintendo Wii it
15:27was they're gonna have these controllers
15:28that were tracked and you'd be able to
15:29have these kind of gimmicky experiences
15:31but then they're like what if we put
15:32this on someone's head and so they've
15:34actually been working on it's really
15:35much like here in the valley we always
15:37you know be under credit Sony on this
15:40one but yeah and so the reviews finally
15:43came out of embargo last week for the
15:45PlayStation VR and so this will be five
15:48hundred dollars without the hand track
15:49controllers six hundred with kind of the
15:51whole kit and caboodle Plus PlayStation
15:534 at 349 399 depending on you don't need
15:56there's a PlayStation 4 plus which is no
15:59pro sorry pro and you it's not required
16:01it's not required but all the review but
16:03it does make it render better and all
16:05the reviews we're using the non pro
16:06right ok so like so maybe they'll be
16:08better than reviews when you have the
16:09pro yeah and so this is something where
16:11you can probably expect slightly better
16:12frame rates but there's 40 somewhere
16:15between 40 and 50 million PlayStation 4
16:16is already out there which you know
16:19maybe they won't have the very best
16:20experience but it's a much larger
16:22install base than what we're talking
16:24about when we look at the number of
16:26gaming PC's out there that the oculus
16:28rift or HTC vive might end up being
16:30attached to today you know a couple of
16:32years from now as oculus continues to
16:34push the requirements down and Moore's
16:36law makes the PCs just better
16:37automatically just if you look at the
16:39entire ecosystem what's the number I
16:41don't know they said there was a number
16:43in one of the keynotes of a million
16:44people using VR every day okay so just
16:48to give you but did now with the news
16:50minimum specs I would say that it's
16:52probably someone we're not under in like
16:53a world of steam I 130 million 10 and 30
16:56as opposed to 40 to 60 few plays for
16:59system adding to underestimate the PC
17:00gaming market like yeah how big and
17:02gigantic it is and and legal legends you
17:05know 1.6 billion in revenue last year
17:06and you know people looking about
17:08haven't even heard of steam at some
17:10shocking to me but why I think the
17:12numbers there also it's the hundred
17:13million monthly actives that all are
17:15active more people watching the
17:16championship in the NBA championship
17:17right I mean some without said ok so
17:20relatively cheap solution especially if
17:22you already are one of these gamers who
17:24bought a console for highly immersive
17:26games PlayStation VR unlike PC it's
17:29almost like self selecting for pepo or
17:31even more so compared to the mobile
17:32market people who buy Playstations are
17:34like self selected for I'm into games
17:36that are highly immersive and
17:38you crank the details up maybe I'm not
17:40willing to justify $1,000 PC but yeah
17:43and you're spending whatever it is 50 60
17:44$70 on a game right and so when it comes
17:47to buying indie made VR content which is
17:49kind of the state of the ecosystem today
17:50you're actually willing to spend 20 40
17:5360 dollars on something for VR rather
17:55than you know on mobile if you talk to
17:57developers but make things for the gear
17:59VR they're saying pricing is anchored in
18:01the same way that it is for mobile apps
18:02and that it's you kind of have to hit
18:04five dollars in order for you to really
18:06get take off as a premium title isn't
18:08really where you want to be when you're
18:10just starting out building an ecosystem
18:12and you can't necessarily you're not
18:14operating at the scale of something like
18:15mobile and so you can't do like
18:17advertising based business model that's
18:18because all the things so far at least
18:20on Steam have been been have not been
18:22triple-a games I mean they've been kind
18:24of mobile quality I would put it kind of
18:27halfway between what people expect from
18:29mobile and where they expect from like
18:31triple-a game developers you know you
18:33maybe you expect higher resolution
18:34assets but you're okay if it's only a
18:35couple hours long as opposed to 20 hours
18:37long and that because of how games were
18:40made you know you can have the same look
18:42but if it's less raw like hours of
18:45content that you expect you can almost
18:46like get a rough estimate of the budget
18:48by multiplying out a number of artists x
18:49number of hours they have to spend
18:50making 3d models go back to the
18:52PlayStation VR so it's it's pretty good
18:54like it's it's it's way better it's
18:56definitely on the high-end side yes not
18:58as good as vive an oculus but far better
19:00than daydream and gear vr yeah it's got
19:02positional tracking it's got hand track
19:04controllers if you're willing to opt for
19:05them it's somewhere between what oculus
19:08had in 2014 with the Developer Kit 2 and
19:11what they released consumers this year
19:14and I think that for most people like I
19:16don't know about you guys but I was
19:18blown away when we saw the dk2 a couple
19:20years ago and I had positional tracking
19:21I can move around in the VR experience
19:22first experience mainstream experience
19:24for most people and they'll get the full
19:25positional tracking and they'll be like
19:27you know the ones who tried cardboard or
19:29more like wise is cool because it's not
19:30that cool like this now they'll be like
19:33this is cool and they'll get it and
19:35there are a couple of things that first
19:37reviews highlighted as kind of
19:38weaknesses these mostly had to do with
19:40the smart was like tested in our second
19:43ago where we're pretty excited about it
19:45I think who's pretty positive from the
19:46smart people yeah I think there was
19:47something too you are and the same way
19:50that there with the rift in vive you do
19:52maintain a certain environment for your
19:54setup where you're going to be playing
19:56it with the five for instance you can't
19:58really put it in your like glass because
20:00the lasers are interfered with by
20:01reflective surfaces for this it's that
20:04your tracking is provided by cameras
20:05looking at lights on your head and on
20:08the controllers and so if you're in
20:09certain lighting conditions the camera
20:11has trouble picking up that light versus
20:12the other light in the room and so you
20:13have to be careful around that and I
20:15mean you look at a typical gamer I think
20:17they're like playing in front of the TV
20:19at night after work and so those
20:22problems probably won't be as much of an
20:23issue in the real world
20:24what about Marquis games so that's
20:26what's exciting and I think Sony also
20:28isn't getting enough credit for is like
20:29oculus they are funding the development
20:31of games that are kind of of the
20:34sufficient quality and depth as what
20:36gamers expect from non VR games you know
20:38people don't want to necessarily buy as
20:41it goes mainstream don't want to buy a
20:42platform and knowing that it's all like
20:44early adopter focused demos they want I
20:47want to buy this thing and play games
20:48otherwise I would just play games on my
20:50ps4 on my TV and so there's multiplayer
20:53shooters like rigs we're kind of working
20:56within the constraints of VR to prevent
20:58naja but still making kind of that
21:00experience that people expect from you
21:02know call Doody on a console they're
21:04working on things that take advantage of
21:05the environment in a way that
21:07traditional games don't necessarily when
21:09you're limited to a TV of telling story
21:11or doing puzzles through the environment
21:13in a way that you'd pick up on things if
21:15you were literally standing in that room
21:16but in a video game you wouldn't
21:18otherwise really taking advantage of you
21:20know what we call presents some of the
21:22games coming out for PlayStation VR it
21:24sounds like Sony wasn't as stringent
21:26about some of those things that make for
21:29kind of you know the best practices I've
21:31heard out of III the big gaming expo
21:33back earlier this summer that for
21:36instance some of the big brand name
21:37games like resident evil or Final
21:39Fantasy they have like a VR mode but it
21:42wasn't necessarily well thought through
21:43or didn't have a lot of time committed
21:45so people felt nauseous coming out of it
21:46because you can't we've learned that you
21:48can't just simply pour 2d games over and
21:50have them work they create all sorts of
21:51issues you try to create native little
21:53things like moving your character with
21:55an analog stick works on the TV but when
21:57you're in a headset it feels weirdly
21:58disconnected from your own bodies
21:59movement and causes nausea but so that's
22:02kind of the big fear I have a
22:03PlayStation VR is that people will not
22:06the new original titles that Sony funded
22:08that do follow best practices but ooh
22:10you know Final Fantasy your Resident
22:13Evil has a VR mode I'm gonna go for that
22:14first and get a kind of a poisoned well
22:16when they go to those for 16 ounces
22:18that's kind of the worst case for
22:20PlayStation VR in terms of its impact on
22:22convincing gamers that VR is interesting
22:25or not but Sony's funded a big enough
22:28slate of titles over the next year that
22:30it might think that most people would
22:31evilly the good thing most get your
22:33guests for sales like for next year
22:35first off the Sony president was
22:37actually walking around the halls at
22:38oculus connect and talking up psvr to
22:41random crowds which was funny to see but
22:43they're throwing out really high attach
22:45rates for consoles they're already sold
22:47out for a wave yeah and so they've had
22:48multiple waves of pre-orders and both
22:50have sold out first in e3 and then later
22:51again I'm reading this on Amazon yeah
22:53yeah and so at the very least they will
22:57probably surpass oculus plus rift
23:00combined before the holidays are even
23:02out that I would assume is supply
23:03constrained and then it's a matter of
23:05whether those first wave of your friends
23:08who all in Playstations do they have a
23:10positive reaction over the holidays and
23:12that then leads to are there strong
23:14announcements coming out of Sony around
23:15e3 in May / June next summer that'll
23:19kind of drive you know is it 2 million
23:21sales or is it 10 million sales in 2017
23:23so there's a ton of other the timing
23:24question in all of this because the um
23:26there's a sort of there's the Facebook
23:29standalone device prototype there's the
23:32how long does it take to get the
23:34daydream slash gear VR model to the
23:36point that it's almost as good as that
23:38and there's when does here wendell apple
23:40decide that their product is good enough
23:41to ship it's like Apple have had like a
23:433d printed gear VR in their lab for like
23:4510 years and so there's a sort of
23:50there's a point at some point a point in
23:52the future like like to say somewhere
23:55there's a there there's a plan for
23:56America to invade Canada it doesn't mean
23:58it's two years three years down the line
24:01they will boot there's this sort of
24:02point at which we feel like this stuff
24:04is now all the right price and the right
24:05experience and it feel there's an
24:07interesting thing for the PlayStation 4
24:09is it you could almost argue that it's
24:11going to be they're gonna they're gonna
24:12release this thing now and like in 18
24:15months to two years time every high-end
24:17headset will be better than that right
24:18what do we think about I mean
24:20does the announcements on the change in
24:21specs for oculus for example does that
24:23kind of change your thinking on how long
24:25it will take for this stuff to start I
24:26think what we're seeing this entry knows
24:28you know Moore's Law is not a law of
24:30physics it's a law of economics yeah and
24:32so what we're seeing now is as people
24:34are focused on VR we're seeing I think
24:39it's it's accelerate that's accelerating
24:41to the sort of holy grail headset which
24:43is whatever let's call the 300 dollar
24:45standalone device with additional
24:48tracking and hand tracking and 4k per
24:50eye or something like let's call that
24:51the holy grail like that was seven years
24:53away and now it's four years away
24:56because of the investment going on right
24:58because you're seeing all these kind of
24:59breakthroughs happen asynchronous Space
25:01Warp and kind of compounding effects
25:02yeah there's still a bad name name the
25:07very nerdy band name it happens to be it
25:10was a sequel to asynchronous Time Warp
25:12which was there prior iteration of this
25:15technology for the indie label that was
25:18the first album so so I think what we're
25:20seeing now right is that the effects of
25:22the fact that Moore's law as an economic
25:23principle not its law of physics or
25:24something right there as all this energy
25:26to get focused and then the question is
25:27will either the sales numbers or just
25:31the enthusiasm of people like Mark
25:33Zuckerberg and etc be enough to kind of
25:37power through the inevitable trough of
25:38despond which you know we're in the
25:39Gartner hype cycle and yeah we're at the
25:41peak and there will be a trough of
25:42despond and that'll be in two years and
25:44you know there's this whole set of
25:45people whose job it is to say that
25:47everything's failed and they'll be out
25:48in mass with their torches and so then
25:51at that point do we have enough momentum
25:53through sales and excitement from people
25:57that control large pools of capital to
25:59power through and get to the Holy Grail
26:00yep because we owe the Holy Grail will
26:03be I think it's to anyone who follows
26:05the history of the computing industry
26:06like this will be a major new computing
26:09platform I don't think it's a serious
26:10question about that button people that
26:11have really yeah deeply into it the
26:14question is like how many troughs have
26:16despawned what we have and will we build
26:18a power through it or will like and will
26:20it end up being three years away or
26:21eight years away because of that I think
26:22that's mighty really yeah and that's one
26:24of those things where when people
26:25question you will this grow outside of
26:28gaming it goes back to the steam and
26:31Playstation and next
26:33monthly active users which is if that's
26:35several hundred million people and it's
26:36only gaming for the next three years
26:38like that could be incredibly large
26:40market before its quota it's it's it's
26:42almost like that if there's a single
26:44print rule of technology it's that
26:46people out the makers of the technology
26:48always get the initial use cases wrong
26:49so for the PC it was storing your
26:51recipes I was just reading a book about
26:53Texas Instruments their first product
26:55was they had the first portable radio
26:56right but they came out right after the
26:57transistor and they just no one imagined
27:00to abuse for music so they actually the
27:01first ads were all around so that you
27:03get notified in case Russia nucleus and
27:06a nuclear weapon against us so that was
27:07the that was the imagine juice case of
27:09the first portable radio of course it
27:10end up being used for music you know
27:12Thomas Edison frankly you know famously
27:13thought it hit that the best use case
27:16for the phonograph was listening to the
27:17sermons of the recently deceased right
27:19as opposed to music which was number
27:21twenty seven own list so this whole
27:22gaming VR thing like of course it's a
27:24computing platform and like you've got
27:25your screen in front of you and you can
27:27teleport and you can and you can you can
27:29travel through time like why would it be
27:31limited to gaming like so you have this
27:34you have this obvious straightforward
27:36stuff which is well you can do games on
27:37this yeah and you can do a whole bunch
27:39of indie video content and then you have
27:41people try to work out okay well that's
27:43we've done that what else can you do how
27:45much border can you take it and say yeah
27:46like the bear case for VR is is just
27:48games which is one hundred two hundred
27:50million people and then the bull case is
27:53you can create content and an experience
27:55as much more than that and then it's
27:57five hundred million or billion people
27:58or two billion people and probably
28:00people would want to do with it what
28:01they're done with every other competing
28:02platform which is interact with the
28:03people right like that seems to be the
28:06killer app of all of all Internet
28:08connected devices right and I mean this
28:10is what Mark Zuckerberg why he was on
28:11stage was to show off the social
28:13applications of Facebook is Bill and so
28:15you know what they envision is being
28:17able to take a facebook Messenger call
28:19and you know on one end in VR you see
28:23basically what looks like a phone in
28:24your hand and face time and you know
28:26marks like we're he just saw his wife
28:27basically as if he were doing a FaceTime
28:29call from his office and on her end she
28:30saw the same thing but he was a cartoon
28:32avatar and so the idea of I think
28:34initially it's just make people in VR
28:36accessible to everyone else in the world
28:38and then as you build a base of actual
28:40dedicated VR users now it becomes its
28:43own social computing system in the same
28:46is a social layer on top of their and or
28:48Twitter or snapchat like they want to
28:50make a vr social layer social is one of
28:52those things where network effects right
28:54of play and so the network becomes you
28:56know exponentially more valuable as
28:57there's more people but the flip side of
28:58that coin is that it's almost inherently
29:01like very unvalued all right at the
29:03beginning one company we haven't talked
29:04about yet is valve and vive you know
29:07they did a phenomenal job with the five
29:08and the room scale the fact you can walk
29:11around and the hand controllers but it
29:15looks like touch with room scale will be
29:17sort of a big big leap forward and the
29:20content will be a big leap forward like
29:22this valve haven't announced what's
29:23coming up so they actually have a steam
29:25dev days coming up I think this week and
29:27that will primarily be kind of a come
29:30together and just talk about best
29:31practices kind of event from what I can
29:33tell no one's expecting huge
29:35announcements but whether it's at this
29:38event or early next year
29:40you know if they kind of do what they
29:42did with the original vive and announce
29:43that the sequel at Mobile World Congress
29:45the room a big rumors that everyone's
29:48talking about with a vibe are that the
29:49next generation will have it'll be
29:51untethered that is to say
29:52it'll still be primarily focused on your
29:54PC valve lives on top the PC gaming
29:56ecosystem but you won't necessarily have
30:00this cable coming at the back of your
30:01head connecting you to your desk
30:02tangling around your money no problem
30:04ladies view point of view right right
30:06you're sending greater than 1080p how do
30:09you get the motion to photon latency you
30:11have to run it for your head moves then
30:13you have to connect back to the GPU
30:14wirelessly and then send send a rendered
30:17image 90 minutes 90 times per second
30:19there's a couple of things you could do
30:20you could imagine them putting them a
30:22little bit of compute on the headset and
30:23kind of doing like well that acing your
30:25time work from the headset well then you
30:27might as well just go all the way and do
30:28Santa Cruz right mmm-maybe
30:30well basically it's not an impossible
30:32problem in terms of the raw data
30:34throughput I think it's more of like
30:36well so late it's a mode valve already
30:37has what's called the steam link which
30:39effectively does the same same thing but
30:40with a less difficult problem of
30:42streaming your gaming PC to your TV at
30:4460 frames per second so that's 1080p
30:47worth of pixels 60 times a second VR is
30:50well I'd say just for ease of math like
30:532x the pixels at 90 frames per second so
30:56it's a lot more data but doable
31:00kind of a matter of valve is good cuz of
31:02smart companies ya know and their lien
31:04dollar company who can hire the people
31:06they have so everyone's saying that gabe
31:09newell the founder of valve who used to
31:11be a microsoft defunded the entire
31:13business himself that he's kind of moved
31:16his desk to the vr area and it is kind
31:18of said like i mean it to win it now you
31:19can famously move your desk around or
31:21whatever project right right that's how
31:22you prioritize what team you're on is
31:23just put your desk near that team and so
31:25apparently he's sitting near the vr
31:27folks now and this is his main focus and
31:29so he's in it to win it for the at least
31:31the high-end PC market because he thinks
31:32that you know again he's he's happy with
31:35this hundred and fifty million monthly
31:36actives he'd love it if you know a
31:38decent chunk of them owned some of the
31:40work they've done like on the
31:41photogrammetry stuff is really
31:42impressive right I mean yeah so
31:44destinations is valves social VR play
31:48and what this is is you can bring in you
31:51they have kind of this big modding
31:53community people who make modifications
31:55to games and distribute from little
31:57things to just changing the sort of the
31:593d model of the sword that people use
32:01all the way to entirely new worlds they
32:02provided that same tools for a set up
32:05that lets you either import you know
32:06kind of made in 3d art tools worlds or
32:09what you do is what's called
32:11photogrammetry where you take a couple
32:12hundred photos of like your apartment or
32:14a park and you extract the 3d geometry
32:17from it and now you have a virtual world
32:19that looks exactly like your apartment
32:21or you know wherever you were with that
32:22camera and so they basically let you
32:25upload these environments and share them
32:27to anyone meet up in public lobbies and
32:29go to different worlds and so you know
32:31today's rating this user-generated thing
32:34you know kind of a database of all these
32:36places where you can just go to these
32:37like so the one right you and I did
32:39where you go to that church in England
32:40or whatever so there's really looks real
32:42places they apply you know video game
32:45rendering techniques that make it look
32:47photorealistic I mean we you and I see a
32:49lot of these demos that was the best one
32:50I've ever seen it's done it's the
32:51stitching and everything is really good
32:53yeah and so I don't think I've shown you
32:54the Mars one one of the default woman's
32:57so they took fun or the stick to the dog
33:00or M Mars or whatever yeah so they took
33:02footage from a Mars rover and stitch it
33:04all together into one actual just like
33:06section of Mars that you can teleport
33:07around and walk around and read random
33:09facts see a Mars rover next to you for
33:13turning that into your social experience
33:15again it's one of these things where the
33:16network is still small and so not that
33:19interesting today but if 10 million but
33:21all that fishbowl effect and the
33:23stitching that you usually see in these
33:25demos like that was all fixed and like
33:26looked great yeah well the thing is is
33:28that it's not a 360 renderer where it's
33:30not a camera that sees 360 degrees
33:32around it and then you make the best
33:34video you can from that you actually go
33:36around taking many photos of the
33:37environment and it looks at all the
33:39differences between them to figure out
33:41the GoPro thing where it's just like a
33:43ball looking out you're actually
33:45actually going around right for the
33:46church one built into the destinations
33:48app someone went around with a DSLR and
33:49took like 375 photos of the outside of a
33:52church but it looks photorealistic
33:54because it's you know 400 times 13
33:57megapixels worth of detail and so you
33:59can imagine that kind of thing
34:01especially like I have if you look at my
34:02Twitter profile at Kyle B Russell my pin
34:06tweet is actually a photogram iterated
34:07of my apartment and just from my iPhone
34:10and it looks photorealistic I've you
34:12know walked around in the vibe on it and
34:14it's you know there's a couple of parts
34:16that are missing and he walked around a
34:18sweetie model of your apartment in your
34:19apartment yes correct
34:21it's correct you can sit down to the
34:24virtual couch in the actual couches but
34:26it's actually how like I think in the
34:27future all the VR like horror things
34:29will start is you'll start off like
34:31looking around the room you're actually
34:32in and it'll look normal and then
34:33suddenly things will start to go wrong
34:35right the thing you're scared of after
34:39you come home from a movie like
34:40Paranormal Activity or insidious is like
34:42oh what if that was real but now it's
34:44like you sit down I'm on my couch and
34:45all of a sudden the shadow twitches over
34:46there and like wait am I in my headset
34:48or not if this is a joke that you know
34:50if you if you're your internet-of-things
34:52if your connectr 10 gets had you've got
34:53poltergeists but if your VR goggles your
34:56goggles get hat and you've got
34:57hallucinations yeah so yeah nothing in
35:00the near term expected from valve I'd
35:02love to be proven wrong but you know
35:04next year it sounds like they are going
35:06to come out of the gate with something
35:07strong when it comes to the next
35:08generation vibe so the high end is going
35:11to be interesting because it's going to
35:12be where the medium itself is pushed
35:13forward and then kind of the PlayStation
35:16VR T or whatever the mobile such dental
35:18interior looks like you're gonna have
35:20trickle down of quality from the
35:21high-end but that's probably where
35:23actual you know numbers of users will
35:25you know and that's that's where we'll
35:26see the tens of million
35:27over time but the high end is exciting
35:29because you get to see you know the
35:30future a couple years early alright
![How To Succeed As A NEW & YOUNG Realtor [Deals Every Month + Luxury Listings]](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FrtrRghgTayc%2Fhqdefault.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
