00:00okay thanks everyone for coming we were
00:01delighted to have a mark cholesky with
00:03us um he's just written a book faster
00:07brought people around here like books
00:10like this because it looks a little bit
00:12like Ben Horowitz his book that is I
00:15mean there's nothing in iOS say anything
00:17but this sold pretty well and take all
00:21the help we can get on colors yes so um
00:25you're an editor at Wired but have also
00:27been a journalist at a number of sports
00:30concepts can you give it give a brief
00:34sure of the career trajectory and how
00:37you came to write the book so my joke is
00:40this is bringing together the I'm trying
00:43to bridge the nerd jock divide here I
00:45started my career at Sports Illustrated
00:47where I covered baseball in college
00:48football and helped launch a size first
00:52website way back when people were
00:54launching their first websites yeah and
00:57worked there for a while and then moved
00:59out here worked at Electronic Arts where
01:01I launched some editorial products there
01:03and have been at Wired for nine years so
01:05it's really you know I grew up wanting
01:07to be a sports writer and I'm a
01:08technology editor and in that you just
01:11go back and forth back which is great um
01:14so the premise of the books are that
01:16there's been massive improvement in
01:18athletic performance due to our better
01:19understanding our body and how they can
01:21be trained as best I can tell so it's
01:23hacking your body it is you know we over
01:26the past hundred years our performance
01:27if you look at things like 100-meter
01:31we're 49 percent faster than we were in
01:331909 some women's field events are
01:37actually we've had more than a hundred
01:38percent performance improvement in those
01:40events what's interesting is that curve
01:43starting to flatten out a little bit
01:44yeah that we've had this century of
01:46unbelievable physical achievement and a
01:48lot of that comes from just really
01:49understanding some of the basic science
01:51in ways that we never knew it before now
01:54and I think one of the points I try and
01:56really illuminate in the book is to find
01:58sort of marginal gains over your
02:00competition you have to look much deeper
02:02you have to look towards science and
02:03technology and towards not just doing
02:06the basics right which isn't still
02:08incredibly important and surprisingly
02:10gets wrong a lot of the time yeah even
02:12at the elite level but
02:13but really finding those those little
02:15improvements through really sort of
02:18cutting-edge crazy techniques yeah
02:20you've got you've got a line that I
02:21thought was interesting and somewhat
02:24depressing today's great innovations are
02:26tomorrow's baseline so you know you yeah
02:28the the Annie for athletic performance
02:30he's keeps going up but then you're
02:32still competing you're competing now
02:33with everyone who's yeah I mean if you
02:35look at if you watch game tape of like
02:38an NBA game from the 50s or 60s if you
02:41watch the Celtics from the 60s who many
02:43people acknowledge was like the greatest
02:45team ever it's hysterical it's
02:47hysterical you see these guys taking on
02:50sort of like 15-foot hook shots and like
02:51just sort of like said look look if
02:57you can look if you can make if you can
03:00consistently make a 15-foot hook shot
03:02that's amazing but he just fell off with
03:06the consistent so so we have some it's
03:14just such a different universe that
03:16we're competing in now and and yeah it's
03:18just that anti goes up a little bit
03:20every year and and once you stack year
03:22over year it's you know it's the same
03:24thing that we all face and all the
03:25things we do business one I was right
03:27they you know if if we could go if we
03:30could morph ourselves back to 1996 and
03:32launch a website we'd be in pretty good
03:33shape right cuz we've learned a whole
03:34lot but at the time it seemed like you
03:36know things were pretty cool they were
03:40fast it was high paced um
03:42nature versus nurture can anyone be
03:45training themselves to be a world-class
03:47athlete no could I do it no I mean
03:51that's what I mean I mean nature versus
03:56nurture is this never-ending debate in
03:59in science and we love the narrative
04:03that anybody can do anything because if
04:05we want to believe that no and we want
04:07to encourage our kids that they can be
04:10or do anything they want when it comes
04:12to elite athletic performance there's
04:14really there's this tension there's a
04:16certain level of genetic endowment that
04:18you have to have and and without that
04:20you're not going to be competitive at
04:21the elite level like this this level is
04:25so far beyond normal this isn't about
04:27being a good runner or being a decent
04:29golfer you know I'm an okay golfer and
04:32somebody was a scratch golfer it looks
04:34at me like I'm a joke right so multiply
04:38that by like 20 and you're at the worst
04:40player on the PGA Tour and multiply that
04:41by another 20 in your at the best player
04:44you 1/1 biologist talks about genetics
04:49as the size of the bucket that you
04:51possess and work and and training as how
04:55high you fill that bucket so the best
04:58genetics don't always win but they're
04:59sort of the cost of entry yeah it
05:01diversely can anyone be a world-class
05:02athlete without these days without you
05:06know these using these training
05:07techniques I think it's really hard to
05:12be I mean I think I think it's probably
05:14easier to be a world-class athlete with
05:18great genetics and bad training than it
05:20is to be a world-class athlete with bad
05:22genetics and great training yes that
05:23makes sense yeah ya know which is there
05:25so um so are great athletes born you
05:29have you have you have some interesting
05:30examples in the book of where genetics
05:33seemed seemed pretty powerful
05:35yeah it's genetics seem to make the most
05:38difference in sports that are really
05:40physiologically determined so so running
05:42cycling rowing and things that really
05:45there are tactics and there is training
05:47but a lot of it comes down to sort of
05:48how much oxygen you can process and how
05:50your muscles work team sports things
05:54that require a lot of skill seem to sort
05:57of border more on on the training side
05:59but there's always a balance there but
06:01you know to use Gladwell's phrase these
06:04guys are outliers but there are people
06:06of won World Championships in the high
06:08jump three years after they high jumped
06:10for the first time you know that's
06:13that's crazy that is that's that's
06:15insane beating thousands of people spent
06:18their whole life doing this there are
06:19people who won Olympic rowing gold
06:20medals two years after sitting in a boat
06:23for the first time they were great
06:25athletes and other sports and there have
06:26been really cool things that the UK has
06:28done especially to try and find athletes
06:30and other sports and put them in a sport
06:33that's better suited to their athletic
06:34abilities and discus cribe that yeah so
06:39Helen Glover's this woman's name she was
06:41a field hockey player in the UK and she
06:43was a good field hockey player but not a
06:44great one the UK in the run-up to the
06:47London Olympics ran a program I love the
06:49name of it was called sporting Giants
06:51and what they did is they put out a call
06:54for tall athletes Heights a real
06:57advantage in some sports and one of them
06:59is rowing because basically you're a
07:01lever like the physics of it is just a
07:03longer lever is better of all other
07:05things being equal so she saw her mom
07:08actually saw a newspaper advertisement
07:10for this for this program she when she
07:13interviewed they did sort of initial
07:14screen and they did physiological
07:16testing on about a thousand athletes
07:18male and female a couple hundred went
07:21into a training program and yeah three
07:23years later she wanted gold medal in
07:24London with her partner Heather standing
07:26and the pair's uh Paris railing which is
07:31bobsleds had a few of those too Herschel
07:34Herschel Walker so it's Lolo Jones who
07:37was a sprinter within the bobsled Lauren
07:40Williams and other sprinter
07:41yeah some of those things like a bobsled
07:42push athlete you know you run and push
07:45it's not there's not a lot of skill the
07:46driver on the other hand spends decades
07:48honing his or her craft trying to figure
07:50out how to get that thing done but then
07:52flipping back to genetics the two two
07:55winners of the New York Marathon this
07:56year again we're Kenyan so you know sure
07:59what happens in East Africa that is a
08:02great I mean if I could answer that
08:05question I so I think people can
08:09conflate genetics with other things so
08:16there are things genetically they're
08:18genetically determined like body size
08:20and height that East African runners
08:23tend to have they're they're pretty
08:25small they they have really thin calves
08:28there have been some interesting
08:30research on the one thing in running is
08:34obviously how fast you can swing your
08:35legs and how much energy that takes and
08:37the light or the leg the better that's
08:38why Oscar Pistorius was actually able to
08:40be competitive and was he had a very
08:41light layer coming because it was no cup
08:44fibre yeah but there are other factors
08:47the the fact that the Rift Valley sits
08:50at over 2,000 meters of altitude
08:53and so everybody's living at high
08:54altitude we've spent people move all
08:57over the US to live at altitude and
08:58train the fact that there's a culture
09:00that really values running as not just a
09:03mode of transportation but as sort of
09:05like the highest athletic aspiration
09:06it's it's the equivalent of making it to
09:09the NFL or NBA or Major League Baseball
09:11in the States and the fact that you
09:13really have a culture that has has
09:16developed around identifying good
09:18runners young and starting to train them
09:20and and frankly some of the things we've
09:23seen is perhaps a culture that's willing
09:25to cut some corners when it comes to
09:26pharmacology you know because there has
09:32to be hope for me so you know I think
09:37everybody wants to find a really simple
09:39answer to that question you know if
09:40we've been having this conversation in
09:42the 1930s he would have said like why do
09:44finish runners win every middle-distance
09:45event you know Finn's dominated
09:47basically from the 800 to the 10,000
09:50meters for 40 years like things like the
09:54top seven in the Olympics four of them
09:56were fins and and everybody's like why
09:57the fins you know like I don't think we
10:00think that fins had some genetic
10:02advantage I think frankly we we look for
10:05these just so stories and it's just it's
10:07a much more complicated question know
10:08which is interesting okay switching over
10:10to training what you described in the
10:13book as you know some of the
10:14state-of-the-art training now is
10:16unrecognizable to me I talked about what
10:20some of the some of the pro athletes now
10:23sure so I spent some time actually just
10:25down the road here on there's a guy
10:27named Phil Wagner who runs a gym called
10:29sparta sports science and he works with
10:31I started working with a lot of baseball
10:34players he also work a lot with Jeremy
10:35Lin before Linsanity he sort of rebuilt
10:38Jeremy as an athlete phil has sort of
10:42two key things that he works on one is
10:45like a very regimented way of evaluating
10:49athletic ability and he does it with
10:50force play down analysis so there's
10:53there's a lot of literature that just
10:55doing a vertical jump on a forest plate
10:57you can tell a lot about somebody's
10:58movement patterns there's sort of three
11:01factors its how quickly you can move how
11:03long you can sustain a movement
11:06and how much power you generate
11:08different sports ask for different
11:11things right we we we think of
11:13athleticism or athletic ability is soar
11:15this global thing and it's completely
11:16not you look at you know an NFL lineman
11:20and Leonel Messi and put them up against
11:21each other and like those they're barely
11:23look like the same species let alone
11:26people who would compete with one
11:27another so so one of the real frontiers
11:31is that match between your personal
11:34athletic ability the event that you want
11:36to get better at so you know when Phil
11:38tested me he's you know you get this
11:40graph and he's like okay well what do
11:42you want to do right wouldn't ya I'm
11:44like well weightlifting probably not my
11:48forte right you know so I've been
11:50playing a lot of golf he's like okay
11:52well then you know that's very
11:53rotational you need to and in his
11:56movement signature what you need is a
11:57longer drive you need to be able to
11:59sustain force as long as possible
12:00through that motion and I'm pretty poor
12:03at that it turns out which explains a
12:05lot perhaps so you know so he would
12:08prescribe one set of training methods if
12:10that's what I wanted to do if I wanted
12:12to play wide receiver he'd prescribe
12:13something that worked on my straight
12:14line speed which actually I'm not bad at
12:17with a set of exercises with a set of
12:19exercises with different lifts with
12:21focusing on different sort of
12:24biomechanical chains in the body sort of
12:26like lateral or posterior or anterior
12:28and so yeah you sort of it's it it's
12:32really it's that level of scientific
12:35focus it's not it's so far beyond not
12:39just like go run it's not even just like
12:41in or not go lift no stretch it is it's
12:44okay you know I got a chance to meet
12:48who's the world record holder in the
12:50decathlon for this book and we actually
12:52went for a run and we ran like two miles
12:55it's the longest run he'd done in five
12:57years there's no reason for him to ever
12:59run more than two miles he the longest
13:01thing he ever runs in competition is
13:021,500 meters right and so you know it
13:05was players just one of those funny
13:07moments it's like hello like I've run
13:09more distance than you do that I go for
13:12a run because like we're not training to
13:14do the same thing right there then you
13:15had this great phrase for British
13:17Cycling the AG performance
13:19by the aggregation of a whole bunch of
13:21incremental get what it's a boy that's
13:22why aggregation of marginal yes so
13:24British cycling is kind of this amazing
13:28sports science success story British
13:31Cycling sucked forever they were
13:33terrible they were a laughing stock and
13:37it kind of was embarrassing to them they
13:39didn't like it and about 15 years ago
13:42the UK started a nationwide lottery and
13:45one of the things that they do with the
13:47lottery money is they give millions and
13:50millions of dollars to high-performance
13:52sport funding and research so they came
13:54upon this huge pile of money and tried
13:58to figure out what to do with it and a
14:00couple of people what guy named Dave
14:02Brailsford ran British Cycling for about
14:04a decade and that's his phrase
14:06performance by the aggregation of
14:08marginal gains and the idea is there
14:10aren't any magic bullets anymore that
14:13we've made all the big leaps and
14:15performance that we're going to make
14:16physically and that the only way to
14:19really find a competitive advantage now
14:20is to find lots and lots of little tiny
14:23improvements over dozens of things and
14:26so some examples they before the
14:32Olympics they spend a lot of time with
14:33Adidas and some university researchers
14:35track cyclists they do a warm-up and
14:37then they go to a holding area before
14:39the race and the temperature and the
14:42muscle starts to drop as you sit there
14:43waiting for your race and that's not
14:44good so they developed what they called
14:46hot pants which I love
14:48they called them hot pants he did he did
14:50tracksuit bottoms basically that had
14:52heating elements over the thighs and and
14:54and hamstrings to keep the muscle warm
14:57between the warm-up and the race they
15:01traveled with their own pillows most of
15:04us have probably had the experience of
15:06sleeping on a bad hotel pillow and
15:07waking up your necks hurts and that's
15:10annoying for us like the day before they
15:12don't pick final that's a huge problem
15:13right so you travel with your own pillow
15:15also it helps you not get sick 88
15:19percent of athletes who competed in
15:20London got sick during the Olympics and
15:24that's that's got to be a bummer that's
15:25a bar right you catch a cold the day
15:28before your race it's like okay well
15:29yeah you know so when you talk to
15:32these athletes they won't shake your
15:34hand because god only knows where my
15:37hand right all right so it's really
15:40about business yeah it's it's it's
15:41really about trying to to find little
15:46improvements before every race they
15:47spray isopropyl alcohol on the tires and
15:49wipe them down just make sure there's no
15:52dust on the tires Lincoln maybe it's a
15:54thousandth of a second yeah it's nothing
15:56but it can't hurt and then now it's
15:59kinda booked you know it's gotten to the
16:00point where there's a cult around it
16:02almost you know people are you know
16:06willing to ascribe benefits to the
16:08British training approach that might not
16:10even be there they during the Olympics
16:11the the French there's a great rivalry
16:14obviously and especially in track
16:16cycling and they were killing the French
16:18they and the French were complaining in
16:20there saying like yeah it's really weird
16:22like after every race like they they
16:23take their bikes and they they cover the
16:25wheels up really quickly like what's up
16:26with the wheels is there something what
16:28are they hiding from the wheels and
16:30liheap which is the French sports daily
16:33newspaper when that's Brailsford it's
16:35like yeah well they're especially round
16:40and and so the headline in like 'if the
16:45next day was like magic or Mavic Mavic
16:49is the French company that makes their
16:50wheels yeah and and they were
16:53speculating that perhaps they were
16:55especially around a wheel yeah yeah yeah
16:57you know if you believe that they can
17:00make it more perfect circle and that in
17:02France you know now that sorry it's a so
17:05um get back to the concept of sport
17:08specific training yeah you talk you have
17:11some fun examples of the hammer or the
17:14or the volleyball team yeah so we don't
17:22practice very smartly and most sports I
17:25mean we do have some advantage which is
17:27we practice for its and when you when
17:28you think about like the rest of your
17:30life we don't practice most things that
17:33we do right we just go and do them like
17:35well I don't practice writing and then
17:37try and write a story I just write a
17:38story so you know at least we have some
17:40something that's separated from the
17:45but we aren't very smart about it a
17:47couple of things since we were talking
17:49about basketball and there's at least
17:51some basketball player it's like if you
17:52learn how to shoot free throws and you
17:53practice for you throws and practice
17:55probably the coach blows the whistle and
17:56everybody lines up and shoots free
17:57throws and you sort of rotate around the
17:59key right that's not how you shoot free
18:01throws in a basketball game in a
18:02basketball game you get fouled when
18:04you're running around your heart rates
18:05elevated yeah and then you shoot two
18:07maybe three yeah so why on earth are you
18:10standing there shooting a hundred in a
18:11row you'll never ever do that when it
18:13actually matters so so motor skill
18:17learning which is a thing talks about
18:21random practice then that the best way
18:24to to practice is to simulate as close
18:27as possible the competitive environment
18:28because that's what you actually need to
18:30do so Peters into works at the u.s. SC
18:33works with some NBA teams and they now
18:35practice free throws just like that like
18:37they're doing a drill that they're doing
18:38something else and the coach will grab a
18:40player and he'll go and shoot two free
18:41throws and go back to the drill like yes
18:43that's how you do it yeah it's games
18:45simulating real game conditions the game
18:47teaches the game is what won you and
18:50motor skill learning per game
18:52so I do the example examples I'd love
18:55probably most in here we're foot the
18:56football good examples and two butts
18:58this the smallest team football and
19:00sharing players but and then the special
19:02tool that's helping people with their
19:04cognitive football IQ oh yes I made an
19:14impression on me but ya know it's so so
19:16two things again on Skylar's ition the
19:20the term is small sided games so
19:24basketball gets one-on-one playing
19:26one-on-one in basketball is really
19:28useful you learn skills that you can
19:31very few team sports have one-on-one
19:34being useful beach volleyball is two on
19:36two games what's happening in football
19:39recently especially Texas has been sort
19:42of the epicenter this is seven-on-seven
19:43football is these tournaments and it's
19:47mostly during the summer it's kind of
19:49flag football ish but basically
19:51quarterbacks will throw 6070 passes a
19:53game there's only so many receivers and
19:55it's just tons and tons of reps
19:58tons and tons of scene defenses and it's
20:00tons and tons of catching and throwing
20:01footballs it many more than you would
20:03get like in a season
20:05regular practice soccer has its own
20:08version of it called futsal which it's
20:12incredibly popular in Brazil and in Dan
20:16Quayle read about this in his book it's
20:18the other tool is Madden so for all you
20:23gamers out there all you can yourself
20:24yeah so so EA where I worked briefly you
20:28know the average 12 year old Madden
20:33fanatic has seen more professional
20:36football plays develop visually than
20:39probably a pro Football Hall of Famer in
20:41the 60s did I mean if you think about if
20:44you think about how many you know if you
20:45play Madden really religiously play
20:48three games a night for a year that's a
20:52lot of pattern recognition and and it
20:55takes away one of the huge problems with
20:57football which is concussions and your
21:00body getting destroyed as you try and
21:02play it so if it's perhaps not
21:04surprising that we have this generation
21:06of kids running super crazy
21:09sophisticated offenses they used to only
21:12be run at the pro level or not even at
21:14the pro level that require a lot of
21:16quick decision-making by the quarterback
21:18so the read option totally depends on
21:21the quarterback seeing the defense and
21:23basically reading one or two things that
21:24happen yeah you know that used to be
21:26like cutting-edge stuff now like keep on
21:28high schools running and you know it's
21:30it's it's crazy and I really think that
21:33a lot of that comes down to having seen
21:36so much and being able to have those
21:39those visual patterns this is simulant
21:42it's it's a flying plane they do four
21:44flying planes you know is genius is that
21:46that people pay them for it yeah yeah
21:49but yeah it's they do for flying planes
21:51they do it for doctors and you know I
21:52think you've actually started to see
21:54some of that there was a play a couple
21:57of years ago so does anybody here play
22:01you can be proud come on come on up keep
22:04it okay okay so anybody who plays Madden
22:07knows what I'm talking about which is
22:09sometimes if time is running out and
22:12you're like streaking down the field and
22:14you've broken away from everyone you're
22:16gonna waste as much time as possible so
22:17you get to the goal line you sort of run
22:19across the goal line before you score a
22:21touchdown because you don't want your
22:22opponent to get the ball sounds like
22:23DeSean Jackson yeah well so two years
22:26ago Eric Decker who at the time was
22:29playing for the Broncos
22:30did that in an NFL game you got to the
22:35goal I didn't even wear an and and it's
22:36a sort of thing that anybody who ever
22:38played Matt's like oh yeah I totally
22:39know he's doing that yeah if you've
22:40watched the tape of the game the
22:41commentators like it's like well he's
22:45just taking time off and somebody asked
22:49him after a game like you know what do
22:54you have that I mean that's a new way
22:56like the simulation on if you'd only
22:58known this this simulation of the sport
23:02has fed back into the sport itself it's
23:05kind of by the way a couple the
23:07quarterback - you mentioned from the
23:09Texas small Football League in the last
23:12Tannehill rg3 rg3 who grew up in this
23:18sort of playing these tournaments where
23:21you know they played six games on a
23:22weekend and throw 300 passes staying
23:25with the physical um yeah we're in the
23:27shadow of Stanford that study on sleep
23:30was the most dish I would love that
23:32study so sherry ma is a researcher down
23:35the hill at Stanford um we honestly we
23:39all intellectually know sleeps important
23:40we also know that culturally or I would
23:42suggest that culturally we have a really
23:43messed up attitude towards sleep like
23:45the braggadocio is about how little we
23:47sleep and it's crazy because sleeps in -
23:52it's not just a performance maintainer
23:54it's a performance enhancer and that was
23:55the study that sherry did she worked
23:57with the men's basketball team
23:58she took baseline sort of performance
24:02measurements how they shot free-throws
24:04sprint tests 3-point shooting there's
24:06one other on their sort of normal sleep
24:09they were sleeping they were reporting
24:11seven hours of sleep they're really
24:13asleep like five and a half
24:15and then she challenged them to sleep as
24:17much as they possibly could and they
24:20they started reporting 10 it was really
24:22more like 9 every member of the team ran
24:26faster every member of the team shot
24:28free-throws better every member of the
24:30team shot three-pointers better not
24:33so let's abandon that study now and yeah
24:35sorry I'm going to the game tonight so
24:38you see if they slept yeah these weren't
24:45small they weren't improvement these
24:47were like 10 15 percent improved yeah so
24:52the Giants have been and I've read about
24:54this they've really looked at this most
24:56teams over the course of the season
24:58their plate discipline decreases teams
25:01will swing at worst pitches over the
25:02course of year the Giants so I don't
25:05have data for 2014 in 2012 the Giants
25:08plate discipline got better over the
25:09course of this season they really have
25:11focused on that so several other teams
25:13have hired sleep consultants and done
25:15some work on that but the Giants have
25:16really so speaking of sleep in getting
25:19tired you talked a little bit about
25:21athletes who are working to train their
25:23brain - if - for for being able to
25:29perform longer so for most of the
25:33history of exercise physiology we've
25:34thought of we like I'm a sports
25:37scientist sports night I do play one in
25:40a play one in a chair fatigue was
25:46thought of as something that happened at
25:48the muscular muscular level peripheral
25:51fatigue is the sciency term for it so
25:53like you know I'm doing bench presses
25:56and eventually my muscles say like
25:57that's it like there's always been
26:00argument about what's that mechanism is
26:01it the build-up of lactic acid is it
26:03like I run out of fuel in the muscle but
26:05but the muscle says I'm done and it's
26:07done the latest research is that that's
26:11probably not true because at that moment
26:13that I can't do that last rep only 40
26:16percent of the muscle fibers in that
26:17muscle are firing my brain isn't
26:19recruiting everything that it could and
26:25there are some slightly different
26:27theories but the general idea is that
26:29the brain sort of has this idea of what
26:31its gonna let my body do if I set out to
26:33run 5k before I take a stride my brain
26:35knows how fast it's gonna let me run
26:37because its job is to get me to the end
26:40of the 5k not to let me run faster it
26:43just wants to prove it once preserve me
26:44right so if I start out running 5k and
26:48halfway through you pull up next minute
26:49car it's like hey we're gonna run 10k
26:52first of all I'll slow down
26:54subconsciously right but second of all
26:56I'll still run that 10k faster than I
26:57would if if I started off and you said
26:59is knowing I was gonna run 10k right my
27:01there's potential there that's on yeah
27:04but it's untapped so San Marco as a
27:09researcher in Wales who's working with
27:11UK sport and also the British military
27:13to see if through brain training
27:16exercises during physical exercise can
27:19you get the brain to basically fatigue
27:24less during exercise and all your body
27:27to do more and he is such a classic
27:30music I'll tell you in 2016 after they
27:32Olympics if it works yeah okay yeah well
27:34there were the one example the female
27:36observer which you know where this is
27:39going social psych experiments are so
27:43amazing right so you you you all of
27:46these research projects take place on
27:49college campuses with them something
27:50like 15 well of trained male students
27:54were brought in to run on a treadmill
27:56and they'd run and there were two
27:59conditions one there was a a male person
28:04monitoring in one condition a male
28:06associate would come in and talk to that
28:08person and in the other condition a
28:09attractive female associate would come
28:12in and talk to that person and every
28:14single man ran faster when they attract
28:20our brains are you know for all bits
28:24amazing about our brains we're so easily
28:26manipulated we're so easily manipulated
28:29if you tell me you if he is some of
28:33these deception studies if you tell me
28:35it's a certain temperature in the room
28:37yeah even if it's not if you tell me
28:40it's really hot I'll go slower if you
28:42tell me even if it is hot if you tell me
28:44it's not I'll go faster
28:46yeah it's as well and then a caffeine
28:49caffeine is a great drug it's I mean not
28:55just for waking up but for almost every
28:58athlete the studies are really
29:00consistent that caffeine works
29:02ya know which is great um dad that's why
29:07I drink like data analysis in sports
29:09dorka Palooza dorka Palooza the that's
29:13of Bill Simmons as a sports writer for
29:15grant landcom now he dubbed that's the
29:19MIT Sloan supports analytics conference
29:21which is supposed to be just really
29:24although it's awesome yeah it's fun
29:26it's 2000 dad and nerds talking about
29:30sports so what's cool about it and
29:34what's interesting about it and and we
29:36all sort of deal with this more than
29:39perhaps a lot of people is the boom in
29:41data collection has really caused this
29:43problem for for sports organizations and
29:47athletes which is it used to be really
29:49hard to get the information now it's
29:50really easy to get the information the
29:53trick now is analyzing the equation with
29:56it and and especially when you start
29:57talking about datasets like sport view
30:01which is a system the NBA that captures
30:04three-dimensional positional data on
30:06every player in the ball and officials
30:08twenty five times a second during a game
30:09every player every game every player
30:12every game yep every team every team
30:15yeah 25 times a second yeah like that's
30:17not that's not this is you know Bill
30:20James could sort of revolutionized
30:22baseball stats when he was a night
30:23watchman at a pork and beans Factory in
30:25Kansas yeah because he could do the math
30:28like to crunch those numbers you need a
30:31data scientist he needs you need people
30:33who are used to like crazy big datasets
30:34and most franchises frankly had no idea
30:37what to do with this so we've met with
30:40at least two companies that are in
30:42taking NBA data and and processing it
30:44and and it's unbelievably interesting
30:46because first of all they have to make
30:48the data into the players moving right
30:50and then once they have specific players
30:52of moving the ball they can then just
30:54start crunching tendencies okay if you
30:56push LeBron left on the wing
30:58he's shooting percentage goes from 62 to
31:0138 right you want LeBron moving left you
31:04want Kobe tissue from the left baseline
31:05not the right baseline so let's start
31:07funneling them that way the the granular
31:09information I write about Kirk
31:11Goldsberry who is a Harvard cart ologist
31:15yes sir sorry I said cardiologists for a
31:18second which is totally different he he
31:25got he started actually by scraping data
31:28from ESPN's website before sport view
31:30existed and he was basically just
31:32getting shot data for every player where
31:34they took every shot whether they made
31:36it or missed it and then start mapping
31:38it it's like what's the expected value
31:40of a shot here versus a shot there and
31:42you see the game changing with these
31:44insights so many teams are running
31:46offenses now based around you know the
31:48three-pointer is a great shot yeah so
31:50you see really advanced organizations
31:52that the Warriors have really worked on
31:54the Spurs Houston Spurs three-pointers
31:58or I want to be at the rim mid-range
31:59jump shots a bad shot it was used unless
32:02yeah then some of the stuff that I mean
32:04it's just you know high pick-and-roll
32:06how do you play it and so they can tell
32:08you or you the guy goes over you know
32:10this has a foot 39 such a guy goes under
32:13this head and just you can see over
32:15which player over-under with which
32:16players with which defensive combination
32:19it's you know we're so at the infancy of
32:22this movement because you know baseball
32:25again is where the certain the baseball
32:27is easy because it's state-based it's
32:28very discrete moments basketball is
32:31continually moving and fluid soccer
32:33football hockey I mean those team sports
32:36there's a lot together get happiness in
32:38soccer too cheating so this dr. Bob
32:42Goldman's question is is somewhat in
32:45provocative the Goldman dilemma is what
32:47so Bob was a he started doing this
32:52questionnaire with athletes asking them
32:56if you could take a drug that would
32:59guarantee you an Olympic gold medal but
33:01you would die in five years would you
33:04and crazy percentages said yes like 8090
33:09percent said yes which is really hard to
33:16explain biking it does explain so they
33:23were competitive international athletes
33:24so they were in their 20s right what's
33:29interesting is so that he started doing
33:32this in the 80s he had had a friend who
33:33died of a steroid overdose he started
33:35writing all this stuff about the scourge
33:37in danger of steroids I'd Lee he has it
33:40become a advocate for life extension and
33:43human growth hormone and he sort of come
33:46in this weird full circle yes so those
33:50results stayed pretty consistent over
33:52time until about five years ago and
33:55people have continued asking this
33:56question and the percentage has dropped
33:58pretty precipitously which is good news
34:01yeah I think I think we see it for a
34:03couple of reasons it's it's always hard
34:06for testing to keep pace with potential
34:09cheating but I think we're getting
34:10better especially as a cyclist it's
34:15called the biological passport so
34:17instead of trying to catch you and
34:18identify a substance in your blood I'm
34:22gonna test you a regular and opposed
34:23that I'm gonna see what your red blood
34:25cell count is and if there are spikes if
34:26there's weirdness I don't have to show
34:28oh you took something I can just show
34:30like this is abnormal yeah and that's
34:33really changed cycling I think the
34:36culture has really changed in a lot of
34:37sports over the past few years I think
34:39all the revelations in cycling finally
34:42sort of broke that culture of silence
34:44and rather Tyler Hamilton books
34:45unbelievable talent Hampton book is
34:47insane I mean it's if you haven't read
34:49it you should care about this stuff it's
34:52an amazing heartfelt devastating book
34:55about choices that he felt like he had
34:57to make had to make it so I'm you know
35:04it's really easy to make really extreme
35:06arguments on doping you know I've made
35:08some in the past like just any let
35:11anybody do anything because at least you
35:13can be sort of internally consistent
35:15in sort of thinking about it more in
35:17talking to people you know to argue by
35:22analogy which is a terrible way to argue
35:24but that would be like saying like if
35:25somebody gets away with murder when we
35:27should just make murder legal it's okay
35:28right part of it is because sports are
35:30arbitrary there's no reason we have to
35:32do any of this so if we feel there's
35:35obviously a moral difference between
35:37cheating in a sport and killing someone
35:38but it's also this you're not trying
35:43it's not about catching the cheat it's
35:45about protecting the ability of the
35:47clean athlete to be competitive
35:48I shouldn't have to make that choice to
35:51be competitive and so whatever we can do
35:53to protect that ability I think it's
35:54worth you some really good I mean and
36:03and the answer is because we decided
36:06that they are I guess so
36:08it but it's all arbitrary right and it
36:10could be ninety-two feet to first base
36:12or 85 feet to first base red blood cells
36:18he's just another example of that right
36:20so we're totally cool with people living
36:22in altitude because we don't feel like
36:23we should let people okay so okay so how
36:27about a hypoxic tent if I spend 15 grand
36:30I can build a room in our house and
36:32Kristen might not like living in
36:34altitude every night but like we could
36:36sit there Andy you may be in the tent by
36:38guys like slightly lightheaded and
36:42generate more red blood cells or I can
36:46blood dope I can take my own blood out
36:48and spin out the red blood cells and put
36:50them back in or so I'm doing this and
36:53what I think is the order of badness or
36:54I can blood dope with somebody else's
36:58which is that's detectable at least or I
37:00can take keep oh they all had the same
37:03effect on my deck anism this they the
37:06same outcome different degrees and it
37:08was same outcome did the same outcome
37:09and we're okay with someone we're not
37:11with others the world anti-doping agency
37:13actually looked into banning altitude
37:15tents and and they had that conversation
37:17for a long time and in talking to some
37:20of these altitude researchers one thing
37:22that came up was like look if you're
37:23gonna ban an altitude 10 you're gonna
37:25ban Gatorade and and so the answer I
37:29it is all arbitrary but we sort of
37:31decide I think part of it goes to risks
37:37like physical risks there there are no
37:39physical risks to too much beet juice
37:40there are some to caffeine but you
37:42really have to work at it you know there
37:46are profound physical risks depo and so
37:49I think that's part of it I think part
37:51of it is accessibility of the technology
37:54to do a broad swath of people so you
37:56know everybody can sort of source beet
37:59juice event unless you're in London in
38:012012 so I think those are some of the
38:05some of the factors that feed into that
38:07but it is at the end of the day it's
38:08just we its we decide on a set of rules
38:10and ask everybody if I own the mini
38:13version of this house this summer spent
38:15three straight weeks in the mountains
38:17biking came back and my time there
38:18proved by the way back 89 percent yeah
38:21and it was just because I have these Y
38:23these markers I'm just like oh my god
38:25it's yeah yeah it does help to have more
38:28red blood cells it was it was brilliant
38:30so the past centers seen this massive
38:32improvement but in many sports the rate
38:34is slowing down in some cases supports
38:36having even gotten back to the blood to
38:38the cheated records and things like yeah
38:40I mean you know are we reaching our
38:43natural limits yes and or no but in in
38:51some ways we are I mean in the I mean
38:53just for the mathematicians the curves
38:55flattening out right it's our
38:57improvement is slowing it's not stopping
39:00you know logically you come to a point
39:03where you think there has to be a limit
39:05but one of the people I was talking to
39:08for the book his name's Andy Walsh she
39:10runs Red Bull actually runs this giant
39:12high-performance athletic program they
39:13sponsored hundreds of athletes around
39:15the world who are we talking about
39:15caffeine before I did say I was talking
39:20to Andy Walsh is his name he came from
39:22he's Australian worked with the US Ski
39:24Team I'm like well nobody's ever gonna
39:25run 100 meters and eight seconds he's
39:27like why not like well because you can't
39:31it's like well so think of Neanderthal
39:34man and think of where we are now and
39:36think of that level of improvement and
39:38if I can and just start to project that
39:40forward right he's like evolution hi pop
39:42evolution hypothesis right that and so
39:44he so his line was you know somebody 100
39:46meters in six seconds it he just won't
39:48look anything like what we think human
39:50beings look like today like the same
39:51bolt yeah exactly i mean but bolts a
39:53great example right like every artist
39:55thought sprinters had to be short yeah
39:57turns out they don't they don't yeah
39:59would you what good ask to open up their
40:02questions after this so you thinking um
40:04what what what interesting trends are
40:07you looking seeing now that you think
40:08have you know that are worth watching go
40:11forward I mean I keep coming back to
40:16just we're actually really far behind in
40:21the US on a lot of this and and so
40:23seeing some of the things that have
40:24happened in Australia and the UK make
40:26their way into a major US team sports I
40:28think we're gonna see a lot of changes
40:30in NBA and if you haven't mentioned what
40:33Australia is doing that came up in the
40:35book repeatedly yeah I mean it's
40:37Australia really so a lot of this really
40:41started in the 70s and 80s in Eastern
40:43Bloc countries and then Australia after
40:46the 76 Olympics founded the Australian
40:49Institute of Sport and they really drove
40:50a ton of innovation to and through the
40:552000 games at Sydney um companies have
40:59come out at there's a company called
41:00catapult some of you might be familiar
41:02with they make a little GPS and they
41:05they make a little sensor units GPS
41:07accelerometer or gyros it's like 20
41:11sensors and it's it's sort of in between
41:12your shoulder blades on not that anybody
41:16else is watching Australian sports but
41:17if you do sometimes you'll see like
41:18rugby players with this little like
41:20thing protruding between their shoulders
41:21and they have a little pocket where it's
41:23sewn in they're using that data in real
41:26time so coaches are making decisions on
41:29substitution patterns based on what
41:30they're seeing from the data so not like
41:33like Jeff how do you feel but like
41:35Jeff's initial ten yards sprint time has
41:39gone down ten percent he needs a break
41:40because he's not able to cover this
41:42winger with so we're two minutes into
41:44the game or two minutes just started you
41:50know so literally they're sitting there
41:51with an app that's suggesting here's the
41:54load that a player has undergone
41:55and there's what we should do and here's
41:57the impact the World Cup said he's run
41:59six miles but it doesn't say how the
42:01speed has changed over the six miles so
42:04none of the you're a team sports is
42:05allowed any of that yet some of the
42:07biggest pushback is from the players
42:09unions because now I can evaluate many
42:14of them are using them in practice so
42:16regulation again limiting technology so
42:24I think but I the advantages far
42:28outweigh the disadvantages and
42:29eventually they'll come to an
42:30understanding with the ian's but they're
42:31worried that they're gonna like your
42:33next contract time it's gonna be yes
42:35good you know look here's the data all
42:37the concussion technology that's we've
42:40seen 20 different concussion approaches
42:42to concussion management and the players
42:43unions like uh uh yeah now stay away
42:46which is inching questions yeah work I
43:05think I think we are David Epstein who
43:10wrote another great book about sports
43:12science last year called the sports gene
43:14talked about it as the Big Bang of body
43:16types it used to be there are these
43:21amazing studies on morphology done over
43:26the course of the Olympic Games like
43:27people literally going in and like
43:29taking measurements of Olympic athletes
43:31and in the 20s that range was very small
43:34like if you plotted height weight it was
43:36a pretty small range in every sport now
43:38today it's like this it's so atomized so
43:41I think part of it is just increased
43:44training proficiency I think a big part
43:46of is better nutrition worldwide just
43:49getting people to just sort of fulfill
43:52their genetic potential physically and
43:55part of it is I think every sport has
43:57sort of pushed to some of the extremes
43:59of that morphology just because the
44:03competitive landscape drive you can't be
44:06as again you watch this now 60s NFL
44:11games like the offensive linemen like
44:14the huge guys on the field are the size
44:16of like the tail bags not even right I
44:20mean yeah like like 6:00 to 2:30 was
44:24like a big guy back then and that's not
44:26a big guy anymore in the NFL did you
44:30have cushion I thought you raised your
44:59I think most of the stuff on the market
45:11right now is still fundamentally a toy
45:12I know Hobby I mean it's they're gonna
45:17be these steps and but to get really
45:20good data the sensors are bigger and
45:22more annoying and bulkier right now or
45:25to have something that looks ok to where
45:27they're smaller and the data is not as
45:28good right so so we're a long way I mean
45:34I think just I think they're better than
45:36nothing I think capturing information is
45:37always better than not capturing
45:39information but nobody at the
45:41professional level is relying on a tool
45:43like Fitbit or up or FuelBand Jill
45:58I think we'll see that tomorrow morning
46:14well yeah I think those are huge
46:16questions I think that's why the players
46:18unions are really pushing back on this
46:20right I mean they're there's so little
46:24privacy for a professional athlete
46:26anyway that that they're worried about
46:30that you know the teams that are excuse
46:33me using that stuff now mostly you're
46:34using them for practices and not sort of
46:3624/7 but yeah once I sign you to an 80
46:41hundred million dollar contract am I
46:43going to want to know everything about
46:45your life I probably am and that's it's
46:47a tough negotiation I think yeah it's I
47:04mean I can't attribute it to anything
47:09other than like that's why we watch
47:11sports right we watch sports to see like
47:13if you watch sports really really
47:15carefully every game you will see
47:17something you've never seen before
47:18and every every game will offer you a
47:21moment of oh my god did that just happen
47:24and it can be as small as a crossover
47:28move it can be as large as Bumgardner
47:30coming on throwing 70 some pitches on
47:32two days rest to say I mean it's crazy
47:34what he did right it's it's nuts
47:36and and that's that's why it's not
47:41academic that's why we cheer and yell
47:44and jump up and down and don't just hand
47:46in a spreadsheet at the start and say I
47:47trained more and here's my physiology
47:49and so I'm better like there's there's a
47:51right I mean that's like if you take the
47:5310,000 hours thing - it's reductionist
47:55most absurd point there would be no
47:58point of running a race just show me
47:59your training log know why they play the
48:01game that is our right and and you get
48:04so our dancers did not now it sounds
48:06super cliche did you say this but like
48:07that's that's why we were in the air
48:09yeah you know otherwise it's just
48:12it's just this thing that happens hey I
48:21will be honest that I don't know a super
48:23ton about them so I don't want to speak
48:25terribly authoritative Lee I mean there
48:28are some really interesting research on
48:30on sort of ways to keep the ongoing
48:36genetic damage that we all suffer as
48:37ourselves replicate over time to lessen
48:40that through different interventions and
48:43that's sort of telomere decay that we
48:45all have exercises one thing that shows
48:48that like a lot of times before like oh
48:51professional athletes don't live that
48:52long and there are certainly cases that
48:57we can point to in tragic cases but but
49:00generally as a population elite athletes
49:02do live longer than the rest of us even
49:04with what their bodies have been to put
49:05through so I can't really speak to any
49:08specifics on a specific plan but which
49:19one okay say Coleman Valley Road I mean
49:52look HGH and testosterone freakin work I
49:55mean there's no doubt that those
49:57anabolic agents are incredibly powerful
49:58they're legal under you know their legal
50:01prescribed by a physician and not in a
50:04competitive environment so yeah in that
50:06case you can do that you know we haven't
50:07really talked about personalization but
50:09that's one thing it's like that testing
50:10in everything from nutrition to training
50:13programs we're like oh yeah yeah we're
50:16all different we're all individuals but
50:17it's we are crazily so some so the
50:21population in this room 65 or 70
50:24there are five of us in this room likely
50:27who are very low responders to aerobic
50:31exercise like who can only see less than
50:335% improvement to our vo2 max through
50:36whatever we do forever there are likely
50:38five of us who are incredibly high
50:40responders to or ab exercise 20 plus
50:43percent gain the vo2 max right that's a
50:45huge Delta in in a really small
50:48population so you know we know this
50:50intuitively two of us go on the same
50:51training program and have very different
50:53results and the reason is genetic you're
51:10right I mean yeah I mean to a large
51:21extent yes yeah I mean it's yeah yeah
51:26I'll give her a ring after when we're
51:28when we're having drinks give me the
51:29phone I'll tell her you're totally right
51:32you know we're starting it's gonna be
51:35interesting right like there are two
51:39facets one is obviously the athletes and
51:41our best athletes don't play soccer more
51:43and more are I think I think in 10 years
51:46like I'd be short NFL right now if I
51:49were a betting man because yeah I think
51:53we're gonna start taking a harder and
51:55harder look at the consequences of
51:57playing American football there thirty
52:01years ago boxing was one of the top
52:03three sports yeah so you know I I think
52:07we'll start to see some of those
52:11I think obviously we know all the youth
52:13participation numbers in soccer that's
52:15that's never really translated to
52:16anything at the world stage we're
52:17getting better Klinsmann's actually
52:19great because what Klinsmann's actually
52:21worked on is not at the elite level but
52:23trying to build the infrastructure
52:24German but but he's trying to build you
52:30know he's trying to build the system
52:31part of it is identifying those athletes
52:33and making sure that they're starting to
52:34play and getting them into this
52:36you know discoverability of a great
52:38athlete is in a country our size is a
52:40problem just couple more questions so I
52:44had was around so what extent does you
52:49know everything that you know we are
52:58going to get faster stronger whatever
53:07yeah I don't know I mean it's um so near
53:11the end of the book and the last chapter
53:13is on the limits of performance and Mark
53:15Denny who's another Stanford guy or at
53:18this kind of amazing paper looking at
53:20the rates of improvement in in three
53:23sports human track and field
53:26thoroughbred horse racing greyhound
53:28racing obviously we're very comfortable
53:31running a straight up genetics breeding
53:33program for speed in horses and and dogs
53:37those sports have plateaued like horses
53:41haven't gotten any faster since the 70s
53:43statistically I mean there you get some
53:45variation same with greyhound racing I
53:51am so massively unqualified to have a
53:54medical ethics discussion about sort of
53:56how we'll get to sort of genetic
53:57modifications for these things I guess I
54:00would just caution that that the idea
54:02that there are easy genetic answers to
54:06you know height we know height to be 60%
54:10genetically determined roughly seventy
54:13between 60 and 70 so that's easy to know
54:18what the specific alleles are what the
54:20snips are the single I'm sorry
54:24that's impossible and there's something
54:27on the order of 30,000 that have been
54:28identified that have some association
54:30right so so we can know that there that
54:34there are genetic factors against these
54:36things our ability to even begin to
54:38touch or modify those factors today you
54:42know of course today is is non-existent
54:45god only knows where I'll end up then
54:47you're in the book the odds of playing
54:49in the NBA go up massively with each
54:52inch so if you're if you're seven feet
54:56tall so first of all out there spin
55:00seven feet tall it's really really
55:02crazily super rare but if you're a seven
55:04foot tall American male you have roughly
55:07a 25% chance of playing in the National
55:10Basketball Association if you are six
55:13six which again is really tall you have
55:18like a point two percent chance at
55:20like that that's how steep that curve
55:22gets at the at the bottom right so and
55:24if you're six one yes please don't know
55:46it's injury naked high correlation with
55:48injury and negative correlation with
55:50elite success later in life is the short
55:53the the slightly longer answer is this
55:56is one of the real sketches of 10,000
55:59hours right is this idea that I I need
56:01my kid to pick a sport early and really
56:03practice it hard it can work right but
56:07Eric Hyden but Tiger Woods you know like
56:14right we read there's your cautionary
56:20tale right but like but autobiography on
56:26how he felt about tennis you know most
56:30there's actually being good research on
56:33this most Olympic athletes specialize
56:36late you have a much better chance of
56:38finding the support a that you enjoy
56:40playing which fundamentally is really
56:42what we should all be focused on you
56:44because statistically none you know it's
56:47a rounding error if you're an elite the
56:50other part is you get a better match
56:53between your body and the sport like you
56:57know I grew up as a cyclist maybe I
56:58would have been a great
56:59soccer player I don't know I never
57:00played soccer right that sampling period
57:02is really important so so please yeah
57:06great thank you very much appreciate the
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