00:01hi everyone welcome to the a6 and Z
00:03podcast today is another one of our
00:04hallway conversations and no seriously
00:06this actually started off as a
00:08conversation in the hallway between
00:09Benedict Evans and a 6 and Z board
00:11partner Steven Sinofsky and in true
00:13hallway condo style where we riff off a
00:14theme in this podcast just the two of
00:17them talk about all the recent news in
00:18the industry around devices ecosystems
00:22besides for example Google's new pixel
00:24phone which is especially notable as a
00:26first phone made by them on the hardware
00:27side as well Apple had a number of
00:29announcements recently around a new
00:31MacBook Pro and innovations in touch and
00:33then Microsoft which among other things
00:34announced a new surface studio an
00:36all-in-one touchscreen desktop PC
00:38Benedict and Steven first talked about
00:40the announcements and then talk more
00:42broadly about what it all means in terms
00:43of s-curves and innovation covering
00:46everything from the x86 to ARM processor
00:48shift to ecosystem fragmentation to the
00:51role of touch and interface and finally
00:53how it all changes work well we were
00:55talking about what an exciting week it
00:57was for people who like pcs that for the
01:00first time in a long time
01:02there's new PCs and also just the one
01:05after another Microsoft Apple and like
01:08is this a changing of the guard over
01:10who's taking over PC leadership and
01:12design even talking about did Microsoft
01:14do better ads for their devices than
01:18Apple did for their devices even though
01:20Apple sort of created the metaphor for
01:22doing the sleek ID walkthroughs what's
01:26well there's a bunch of things in Apple
01:28announced a upgrade to their laptops
01:30that people have been waiting for and
01:32it's another speed bump the new design
01:34with this interesting touch bar thing on
01:36it Microsoft in the other hand have done
01:39this like oh my god amazing sexy big
01:41color touchscreen thing that flies
01:43around in your hands and so on what's
01:45also in my mind I think actually which
01:47is interesting is the Google people and
01:50I think it's as interesting it's
01:52interesting to talk about Microsoft and
01:54Google getting into the hardware
01:56business as it is to compare the pixel
01:59with the iPhone and to compare the
02:00surface with the Mac because you've got
02:01these see what these two different is
02:02you've got these ecosystems and you've
02:04got these operating system providers
02:05moving into a hardware ecosystem then
02:08you've also got the state of the PC
02:10ecosystem the state of the smartphone
02:11you can system and the kind of products
02:12that are coming out of that so you've
02:13got those two different strands to think
02:14but I think there's a third in there too
02:16which is where people are writing
02:18software yes like I think it's there's
02:20one sort of ecosystem that has these
02:22three spinning gears that all have to
02:24spin at a good velocity for the whole
02:26thing to be healthy yep I'm super
02:28interested of course in the in the pixel
02:31you know comparison pixel plus Android
02:34and then the Windows devices plus the OS
02:37there because they're very similar on
02:40the outside but very different in that
02:41the ecosystem around Android is is just
02:46so broad with so many players I mean it
02:48looks like pcs looked like 15 years ago
02:50yeah but now there's such a
02:51consolidation in the PC space yeah it's
02:54interesting I wrote a piece in the
02:56spring saying sort of where is the del
02:57of Android is this wondering wondering
02:59how that market will evolve I mean so
03:01the so here's the thing you have this
03:02huge and very vibrant ecosystem for
03:04making Android phones at the high end it
03:07struggles to compete with the iPhone
03:09there were some companies that do okay
03:11against the iPhone but Apple's got 650
03:13million iPhone users but then it has a
03:15couple of sort of systemic issues within
03:17it and the really obvious one is
03:19fragmentation both fragmentation of the
03:21operating system no one gets updates but
03:23also fragmentation of the hardware which
03:25is less obvious perhaps more important
03:26which is that you've got two or three
03:28thousand different devices just as you
03:30have two or three thousand different pcs
03:31and for much the same reasons which
03:33makes it challenging if you want to do
03:35stuff around like kind of low-level
03:36graphics and super high performance and
03:38or anything in software really yeah but
03:40in particular becomes seems to come even
03:42more to the fore as we start thinking
03:43about VR because like you can get
03:45facebook Messenger to work on any any
03:47Android phone whether you can get
03:48daydream to work even on any high-end
03:49Android phone it is kind of an open
03:51question and so Google comes out into
03:54this very rich very vibrant still kind
03:56of growing ecosystem with a quite high
03:58in phone and they previously had the
04:00Nexus but they never tried to sell them
04:01so that didn't really count you know
04:03that was a really kind of low volume
04:04product now it feels like they're at
04:06least talking about going out and trying
04:08to push the pixel quite hard and so
04:10actually competing with out there we are
04:12OMS who you could argue don't have
04:14because Windows Phone is now kind of
04:16shrunk away but Google is kind of going
04:18out into the phone business and you
04:19think well why is it that they're
04:20choosing to do that what is it that's on
04:22a pixel phones that I can't get on
04:24another Android phone is Google going to
04:27this phone that they're not going to let
04:29the other Android companies have and why
04:32why would you have stuff on a pixel that
04:34because what is it the Google about it
04:37right it's even stickier than that
04:39because in the dynamic of Google's
04:43supporting the the broad set of OEMs
04:46that that's an implicit thing like the
04:49OEMs are gonna just think they're gonna
04:51do that yeah like that and but of course
04:54they're also businesses and they can't
04:55just stop making stuff yeah but it
04:57becomes very quickly an adversarial
05:00relationship where we're like every time
05:02Google because imagine it's not just
05:04it's just the mere presence of this
05:06cloud over this whole conversation
05:07because Google is showing up saying we'd
05:09love you to be able to be updated we'd
05:11love you to be able to surface this
05:13thing and we really don't want you to do
05:15kind of crap where oh and by the way I
05:17know you're thinking we're gonna do some
05:19secret thing that we're gonna spring on
05:20you right before you launch a device but
05:23we're not gonna talk about it and you're
05:25not gonna really accuse us and it's and
05:27I on and I've never spoken to the guys
05:28who work on that honestly right yeah
05:30they're oh yeah we have a wall like we
05:33have a big wall between the people who
05:35build the software and the people who
05:36build the hardware which for a long time
05:38was a thing that I had to navigate and
05:40so the the problem is is that ecosystems
05:43are fundamentally about a relationship
05:45and it goes all the way up and down the
05:47chain because you start with developers
05:49and the relationship to the platform
05:51then you have the platform of software
05:53to the platform of hardware then you
05:55have even the ecosystem of the OEMs with
05:57all of their suppliers and so at some
05:59point you know you start to worry is
06:01there gonna be like a Samsung ARM chip
06:04in a Google pixel device in the future
06:06that is only theirs first like and
06:09that's the high-end one and so this this
06:11is it's a very precarious spot well it's
06:14I suppose one of the things I wonder is
06:17like is this about Google trying to fix
06:19something in the Android ecosystem that
06:21isn't being done by the existing OEMs
06:23either high-end phone it's actually
06:25having held one for a week it's not that
06:27doesn't feel that premium actually it
06:29doesn't yeah she always felt that the
06:31Nokia Windows Phone has felt more
06:32premium than any premium Android phone
06:34and but so are they trying to fix
06:36something in the UK system or they try
06:38to make money and of course they'll try
06:40and make money anyway but yeah is
06:41is the purpose of this to add another
06:43revenue line is the purpose of this to
06:45give people in the Android team
06:46something to do because there there is
06:47the purpose of this to fix something in
06:49the ecosystem right well and of course
06:51this is the same applies across anytime
06:54that a big software maker tries to make
06:56hardware while supporting an ecosystem
06:59is you can always drive the top-line
07:01revenue because the devices are
07:03expensive it's $900 and you multiply
07:05that by a few million and whoa it's a
07:07big number but the margins are very very
07:10difficult and what's really hard is the
07:12software companies there room for margin
07:15is is much more difficult more difficult
07:17because they are used to these 90 80
07:20percent margins and there are very
07:22expensive providers like if you're the
07:24person building the the software
07:27enhancements that go on an HTC or an LG
07:29or something you're you're not paid the
07:31same as like a Google engineer and so
07:33your ability to compete on a margin
07:35basis is always gonna be extremely
07:37limited yep so then it's like are they
07:39just going for the top line and to me
07:41the the challenge is always like what is
07:44your core purpose and how far will you
07:47take it and so I always think about the
07:49example of like it's the Dodge Viper
07:50they recognized they couldn't really
07:52make money making cars at that low
07:53volume but boy if you could have a TV
07:55show that's a Dodge Viper and they and
07:59then every time you see it it's
08:00basically the same as if you were
08:02spending three hundred thousand dollars
08:03for a minute commercial in the middle of
08:05something and you it so it is literally
08:07out of your ad budget when you think of
08:09it yeah it's interesting I mean then you
08:11look at the surface studio which starts
08:13at $3,000 and for basically something
08:15with laptops it like with mobile chips
08:16in it and then it goes up to is it four
08:18or even five thousand dollars two
08:20hundred which gamers would point out or
08:23someone looking at at cat scans or MRIs
08:27would point out that if you get a super
08:29high-end 4k monitor you know plus a box
08:33with an external graphics card you're up
08:35at that amount anyway and it just isn't
08:36it costs what it costs yeah it's not an
08:38unreasonable price for what you'll get
08:39oh it's not but it's interesting so
08:41you've got Mike receive got Google
08:42getting into its own hardware ecosystem
08:44I mean I join back I've always thought
08:47about the Google is basically a reach
08:48company and everything is about getting
08:50reach either to get stuff in or to
08:52surface support out and said I look at
08:55what is the reach problem that this is
08:57solving is the reach problem here that
08:59they weren't able to get their services
09:01out in a timely way on to Android phones
09:03well 95% of devices have got GMS so it
09:05doesn't feel like that's the problem is
09:07the reach problem that too many people
09:09were buying iPhones and they felt that
09:10no one was making a high-end Android
09:12phone and say they had to make a
09:13high-end Android phone and if that
09:14upsets am saying well that's so be it
09:16feels like maybe that's the answer and
09:18then there's the other point which is
09:20maybe it's the fragmentation and the
09:21fragmentation is a problem for VR and
09:23that's they're trying to get ahead of
09:24that but that's a bit more speculative
09:25yeah to me I think and like now I'm
09:28speaking personally because there is a
09:29reach problem when we were doing surface
09:32like one of the reach problems was I
09:34couldn't do a press briefing with
09:36somebody that was running a Windows
09:37laptop the voice of all of your products
09:40whether it's the press or just let's
09:41refer to it as elites the CEOs of the
09:44world whoever they were not running the
09:46very product we were trying to sell them
09:47or show them and I think the Google's
09:49problem is like you can't talk about
09:51Android to anyone who uses it like all
09:54but like and so all the purpose and its
09:55first thing anybody does when they leave
09:57Google in the valley is buy an iPhone
09:58right and actually they have a hard time
10:01even internally like where the people
10:02use iPhones and stuff and particularly
10:05as you like spread out beyond the core
10:08Googleplex people and you just go to the
10:09subsidiaries and all around the world
10:11iMessage is real and they want to
10:13communicate with their friends and and
10:15stuff and so I do think that it's super
10:17interesting in that regard what we
10:19touched on price a little bit I I was
10:21fascinated by the fact that there were a
10:22lot of people on on Twitter if you are a
10:25Windows fan you said look how expensive
10:27the new MacBook Pro is and if you were a
10:29Mac fan you were like good lord $4,200
10:33for a computer and there are even fake
10:35ads for all of them now there's like the
10:36Apple ad that says new MacBook you will
10:38never afford it and then there's a
10:40converse for the windows one with
10:41exclamation points and the truth is
10:43where we are on the s-curve
10:45in the PC world these are this is how
10:47much pcs are just gonna cost there's no
10:49reason to be cheap yeah so the s-curve I
10:52mean this is an interesting conversation
10:53as well and I the thing that I got a lot
10:56of flack for on Twitter was was actually
10:58just talking about s-curves and so we
10:59should talk about what we actually mean
11:00here which is that you know the
11:01innovation on any channel G product
11:04you know slowly you're digging around in
11:05the foundations and it's not working yet
11:07and it's flat and then suddenly
11:08thing starts working and it goes off and
11:09then it starts slowing down again and
11:11you know anybody looking at a PC
11:14including Maximus masterpieces but
11:16anybody looking at a personal computer
11:18Intel based computer and Intel based
11:19computer um now you know perfectly well
11:21that it was getting it was getting
11:23faster way quicker fifteen and twenty
11:25years ago than it is now and actually if
11:27you buy a new computer it's really hard
11:28to tell the difference between a new one
11:29and one ten years if I met you from five
11:31years ago unless you're doing like 3d or
11:33video editing or something well in fact
11:35all of the new devices that were
11:36announced this week are running
11:38components at least a year old and in
11:41some cases two years old the graphics on
11:43on the surface or are the last
11:46generation Nvidia the CPUs on an Intel
11:48or the I mean on on the mac books or the
11:50old ones yeah you can't tell yeah so
11:53you've got this slowing innovation curve
11:55because you've basically done as much as
11:57you can do and you can't think of
11:58anything else to do I wrote a blog post
12:00about this in the summer talking about
12:02propeller planes and jets and say
12:04looking like the late 40s and early 50s
12:06you've got these four engine propeller
12:08powered airliners and they're beautiful
12:09things and they work really well and
12:11everything's done perfectly and you're
12:12they've you've done everything you can
12:13do to a piston engine you can't make the
12:15piston engine any better than this and
12:16then Jets come along and like the first
12:18jets are not as good but this is you're
12:20on a whole new curve you're on an
12:21s-curve that's gonna go a lot higher
12:22than piston engines were ever going to
12:25take you and I think that's sort of
12:27where we are with mobile quote with
12:29mobile and with PC now that we're you
12:31know we have two cups and the mobile
12:33curve is still accelerating upwards and
12:35the PC curve is kind of flattened out
12:37and say therefore the sort of the point
12:38I was making is that basically what
12:41we've seen is Apple with the new
12:45basically moving a little bit along
12:47further along that flattened s-curve I'm
12:49saying okay well you know we can do a
12:50little bit more we can make them a bit
12:52thinner we can move to the new ports
12:54we've got this interesting touch bar
12:55thing which we can talk about later
12:57we're basically iterating on the old
12:59model meanwhile we have a new S curve
13:01which is armed iOS touch modern
13:04operating system ipad iphone of which we
13:07now have 900 million users there's only
13:09one and a half billion pcs on earth and
13:10Apple has 900 million iOS devices out
13:12there and on a quarterly basis Apple
13:14sells about the same number of Apple
13:17cells the same number of devices as
13:19there are PCs sold yep
13:22but that's one of the many companies on
13:24the arm curve versus all of them yeah
13:26exactly and you know people quibble
13:28about this about the replacement cycle
13:29but that's not really the point you know
13:30there is here is this new curve and this
13:32new curve is accelerating past the old
13:34curve in exactly the same way that the
13:35PC curve accelerated past the mainframe
13:37in the mini-computer curve and so for
13:40Apple the place where you put the real
13:42reimagining of what your whole
13:44experience is is on the iPhone and the
13:46iPad the problem for Microsoft is
13:48Microsoft missed that you said that and
13:51I asked if there was a grade for effort
13:56I had an IPAC you know I had I brought
13:59my Compaq I pack I had an RT surface
14:02yeah I had a Lumia 800 which was one of
14:05the loveliest phones ever made um but
14:07for all of the the post-mortems
14:09Microsoft Miss mobile or didn't get
14:12didn't drop out of mobile however you
14:14want to find this arm and although balsa
14:16farm is armed iOS Android the unique
14:18space oh you can argue about the
14:20operating system but arm and mobile and
14:23touch is the new generation of computing
14:25and Microsoft basically failed to make
14:27headway and that has written off the
14:29Nokia acquisition Microsoft is not doing
14:30phones anymore and so Microsoft quite
14:33sensibly turned around and said okay
14:34what do we do about this well we've got
14:36to try and add some of this stuff to the
14:37old platform so we add touch and we we
14:41try and make phones we give up a Morse
14:43given up on making phones but we add
14:44touch to Windows well the timing is a
14:47little off there so let me try and it's
14:51it's tricky to talk about because you
14:53know these were like I I love the new
14:55product I'm obviously gonna go buy a new
14:57surface and it'll replace the all-in-one
14:59Dell that I have but you know if you
15:02look at iOS like the thing that was most
15:03innovative to me about iOS is that they
15:06I sat there in the launch of the first
15:08iPhone and jobs strategy says the
15:11beautiful thing about this is it's
15:13really just the Mac operating system
15:15under the under the covers and he was
15:17being literally true and it turns out
15:19they backed away from saying that
15:20because it was just so confusing to
15:22everybody because you asked oh well then
15:24can I run Mac word on it and and like
15:25and and so it but from a technology
15:28point of view of course you're gonna do
15:29that because there are so many parts of
15:31an operating system that don't that
15:33don't appear that are going to be the
15:36threading and tasking but there were
15:37tons that they had to redo like graphics
15:40was completely different than it was on
15:42the x86 and working with memory and
15:45working with storage and the kind of
15:46peripherals and sensors none of that
15:48existed so what we did is we put all
15:50those in on the windows side and doing
15:52trying to do the same thing but what
15:54happened to us is that the the broad
15:56ecosystem of people just couldn't react
15:59well to having the Windows product
16:01change like the question always became
16:03what we should have just done a whole
16:04separate thing yeah well so this is like
16:06an innovators dilemma a problem well
16:08this is the question now is what Apple
16:09should had touch to the Mac right and
16:11you know the answer that well you know
16:12that was hard and painful I'm sure you
16:15wouldn't object to me saying Windows 8
16:16was painful but you know that it was a
16:20hard thing to do it was hard to do to go
16:22from an operating system it was
16:23basically conceived for keyboard and
16:25mouse and placing touch onto that has
16:27challenges and having two operating
16:29systems one for keyboard and mouse and
16:31one for touch has challenges and there's
16:33trade-offs in each of those and of
16:34course for for me personally like
16:36there's always just that subtlety of
16:37like how how are you going to get to the
16:40future and what was the right path and
16:43we you know I certainly firmly believe
16:45and we and we had already experienced
16:47this once at Microsoft where we ran dos
16:48programs on a GUI now you just like
16:51start it up in a window and people had
16:53all of the same complaints back then
16:54like it's so confusing there's a command
16:56window for WordPerfect and then there's
16:58this fancy version of Excel that does
17:00when does a mouse and you can't get data
17:01between like these confusing states they
17:04exist and and you hear that and just to
17:06be super clear about it you're all the
17:08same things if you use like a Mac and
17:10you use iOS like yes how do you sign a
17:12PDF on iOS and where can I get to my
17:15files that are in a folder there's no
17:17there's no finder or Explorer on an iOS
17:20device it's super community because
17:21these transitions there is no smooth yes
17:24there's a step function discontinuity is
17:26that kind of a clear sort of sort of
17:27almost connected to pologize it you have
17:28this kind of platform transition and
17:30it's a transition from the x86 chip
17:32architecture to arm and that has power
17:34implicit big power implications and
17:36sensors and and then it's all
17:37connectivity and all the sensors and
17:39conductivity there is an operating there
17:41is an if fundamental interface
17:42transition from something that's based
17:43on a mouse and a keyboard to something
17:45that's based on touch and
17:47touch to a mouse and keyboard interface
17:49is hard and her creating a new interface
17:52is hard right and Microsoft went one way
17:54and Apple went the other way his Apple
17:55always likes to kind of you know make a
17:57break and do a new thing and they had
17:58nothing to lose yeah they like and we
18:00had a lot to lose and what I'm kind of
18:02getting at is that the the arm touch in
18:04things starts in a little phone right
18:07and said but it's not about a little
18:09phone just as the PC thing exactly
18:12starts as is little thing on a desk and
18:14you like but I've got a hundred thousand
18:16people and I've got a mainframe and how
18:17the hell can I run my business on that
18:18little thing but that's just where it
18:20starts and now everything is on PC yeah
18:21and I could go on and on and there's no
18:23point in reliving the history you know
18:26there because it's such there's not like
18:27it's not gonna happen to anyone again
18:28any time soon and and if it does it'll
18:31play out differently but there is that
18:33you know it is is this a very tricky
18:35thing of like what were you thinking at
18:37the time versus what could you do versus
18:39what you could say yeah and and like you
18:42know it's very difficult if you're a big
18:43successful organization to stand up and
18:45tell the outside world the thing you
18:47love and the thing that's all the
18:49business is not the thing we're gonna
18:50worry about anymore and you you can't do
18:53that like that's the that is the
18:55literally the innovators dilemma we were
18:57able at the time to build a whole lot of
18:59software that and release it which
19:02itself was an accomplishment it just I'm
19:04never gonna get tired of just analyzing
19:05it and thinking about it because I I do
19:07think it's a very a very interesting
19:09thing but the thing that we have to make
19:11sure folks understand that we're coming
19:12from is is really just PCs are gonna get
19:15super expensive now like in everything
19:17about them is it's just like buying a
19:18mainframe like today you can if you're a
19:20big insurance company running mainframe
19:22software you can hire programmers you
19:24can get new features it's just ten times
19:26as expensive as it was a long time ago
19:28and because that's what happens at this
19:30point of the s-curve and so people were
19:31worried about the price that's like the
19:33price now like yeah it's not and and it
19:35because you know you were saying earlier
19:36if you want a cheap PC buy a phone yeah
19:39exactly well this is the point we go
19:40through this transition where the x86
19:43winners and mouse and keyboard interface
19:45is the old way of doing things and the
19:47arm touch interface is the new way of
19:49doing things and one of those is on the
19:51flat part of the S curve is in the other
19:52words on the up part of the S curve and
19:54so what Apple is doing is they're
19:55optimizing the one that's on the flat
19:56part of the curve sustaining innovation
19:58clay Christensen would say and
20:00they're trying to drive the experience
20:02and forward in new ways successfully or
20:04not but that's where the innovation is
20:05on the one that's gone the upward part
20:07of the curve and so it sort of makes me
20:09love Apple has had I've been able to
20:11draw on my iPad for what a year not with
20:13a pen whereas for Microsoft because
20:15Microsoft didn't have that thing that
20:16was going on the up part of the curve
20:17for all these stuff what reasons we've
20:19talked about so Microsoft is optimizing
20:21the one that's on the flat part of the
20:22curve and so you get this beautiful
20:24propeller-powered plane in the form of
20:26the surface pro and that thing is going
20:29to be a great in that and the surface in
20:31general and now the surface studio and
20:34so you've got these you've got these
20:36point of points of comparison which are
20:38kind of the wrong comparisons or it's
20:41like which comparisons are we making
20:42here we were saying before like it's
20:44interesting to look at the pixel and the
20:46surface as it is to look at the pixel
20:48versus the iPhone in the surface versus
20:50a Mac because you've got operating
20:51system providers getting into hardware
20:53but it's also should you look at the
20:54surface pro versus the iPad or should
20:57you be looking at the surface versus a
20:59Mac because those are actually the
21:02places where people are putting the
21:03innovation Apple is things doesn't think
21:06that the Mac is the place where all the
21:07grace is going to come from well it's
21:09about the phone and the tablet
21:10hey let's let's we have to talk about
21:12for yes cuz I thought at first when when
21:16the rumours happened I was really down
21:18on it and then I got really excited when
21:20I saw it mostly because of the moji part
21:22yeah I was thinking of doing a flow
21:23chart of which things will Steve and
21:24Steven love and we're seeing the Steven
21:26hey well you know cuz I'm very I
21:28definitely am on the down side of like
21:31extra gadgets and widgets and inventing
21:35new input methods well just in just in
21:37terms of just like it looks so much like
21:38fins on a car or just trying too hard I
21:41mean cuz we've tried like these little
21:44screens they've had them forever but
21:45actually you can finally make one that's
21:48a super interesting thing well this is
21:50actually it's an iPhone it's an S an
21:52Apple watch so the actual the technology
21:54underneath is an OLED screen and the
21:55chip that's driving it apparently a
21:57tankini Apple watch basically that's how
21:59that's how it's being done it's also
22:01interesting instantly that there's touch
22:02ID there but we can come back to that so
22:05I was at the demo event yesterday it's a
22:08little bit hard to tell because we've
22:09got this super high spotlights but it's
22:10basically it's matte so it feels
22:13like touching your touchpad on your
22:14laptop it doesn't have haptic feedback
22:16so it doesn't click when you touch it
22:17which I would imagine will come next but
22:19it it look does look like part of the
22:21keyboard so it's not like glowing or
22:24glaring brightly and it's very fast and
22:26very smooth and I played with it for you
22:29know two minutes it's instantaneous you
22:31switch outs button switch there is an
22:32escape key you can always have an escape
22:37and it's sort of so I so here's the
22:39thing I was thinking about this which is
22:41like it come it's come back to comes
22:43back to the s-curve which is like what
22:45can you you you're you're sitting and
22:47looking at this product and you're
22:48thinking about interesting sort of what
22:51should we change here like why have we
22:53got these 14 keys at the top but why
22:57have we got them there and we keep
23:00changing what's on them every now and
23:01then and it's like you've got to
23:02memorize what they are and like you're
23:04in this app therefore you can do FN and
23:07that button and something will happen
23:08and you've memorized them and like why
23:12are they there and with we were to turn
23:15them into software what could we do and
23:17you couldn't change the whole keyboard
23:18into software because you wouldn't have
23:19that you know you would be harder to
23:21type on it but you don't type on those
23:22keys so what you punch them you you
23:25punch them so what could we put there
23:26and I think it's always that simple you
23:29know this is not like inventing
23:31fundamental new interaction paradigms
23:33like throwing a dial on the screen or a
23:34pen yes like this is an interesting
23:36incremental evolution for a piece of
23:38like a legacy a legacy component of your
23:40computer it works it works super well in
23:43that regard for a key ecosystem reason
23:46which is basically you know the idea
23:48that people the cynical people are
23:50saying oh this is Apple like their
23:52last-ditch effort to refuse to put tack
23:54touch in mac OS and so the fallacy in
23:56that argument is is that there are all
23:58of these Mac developers the or let's
24:01just call them x86 developers that are
24:03either on OS 10 or on win32 that are
24:06sitting there going what's the best way
24:08for us to completely rewrite the
24:10interaction model for our application
24:11because they're they're actually no one
24:13doing that all of those are on the back
24:15of their s-curve and they're in sustain
24:16mode yeah and the last thing they're
24:18going to do is rewrite them which is
24:19something frankly back in the Windows 8
24:22days we always knew was the case and the
24:24focus we needed was on new kind
24:25of applications and so Apple is big
24:27enough and people like Photoshop and
24:29other big giant ISPs are all able to
24:32like throw a few pieces of well and and
24:36that's what I'm fascinated by because
24:37that even their design guidelines which
24:39I tweeted last night I find fascinating
24:41because to me if it were beginning of
24:43the s-curve like I'd be looking at this
24:45going oh my gosh this becomes the whole
24:47UI hmm like you could really start to
24:50see and because we did the ribbon back
24:52way back in office as a way to just
24:54basically do the same thing it was just
24:56on the screen yeah and except Apple is
24:58they're so cognizant of the fact that
25:00this is sort of an inner incremental
25:03innovation that they actually tell you
25:05not to try to replace the UI of your app
25:07don't do anything revolutionary with it
25:09but they say like don't expose
25:10functionality solely on the touch bar so
25:13basically the touch bar is completely
25:14redundant with the product you know and
25:17provide control but that's exactly the
25:19same as saying don't do things that are
25:20only keyboard shortcuts right right it
25:24it just it points out that like they're
25:26fully aware that there's no developer
25:28who's waiting to rewrite their product
25:30and this yes that so therefore you want
25:32to constrain it so it they don't try
25:33yeah and so this is what this is a nice
25:36interesting protect it's an interesting
25:38potentially useful potentially not
25:40incremental improvement to a MacBook
25:42when the MacBook isn't changing what it
25:44is the MacBook has been at the top of
25:46the s-curve this is better propellers on
25:48your Lockheed Constellation right and so
25:50all of these kinds of changes that's why
25:52I'm always was skeptical of like
25:53hardware gizmos because there were never
25:55any developers this is a this is a
25:57problem Samsung has always had right
25:58they did they announced this new thing
26:00in a new Samsung phone and Android
26:01developers are like well that's one of
26:03850 phones that my users have got say
26:05well I find those users and plus you're
26:08gonna have to fix it and no one will get
26:10the updates and so it's all sort of
26:12hopeless and so that's you know that's
26:14why these ecosystems like first you need
26:16components that are moving very quickly
26:17then you need like to write software and
26:20then you need developers to use so this
26:22is this software point this is the
26:23crucial thing and I've gone and watched
26:24the um the Microsoft launch of it event
26:27video three times now and I'm sort of
26:29sort of sing and puzzling and thinking
26:30like I don't draw in fact I can't draw I
26:33just like the way you say draw because I
26:36like draw okay my son started to do that
26:40so say here's the thing so when Apple
26:42launched the iPad or indeed they
26:44launched the phone they didn't launch
26:45the iPad and show you pinching on photos
26:48and drawing on it and then say now you
26:50plug in a mouse in order to do your
26:51email they proposed touch is a
26:53completely new way of doing everything
26:55on the device and everything on the
26:56device had to be written around that
26:58Microsoft launched this new surface
27:00studio device they didn't show me how
27:04this is better for doing my email they
27:07show me I can draw my email I can draw
27:10on that Word document if I was going to
27:12print something out and I don't think I
27:13printed anything out this year except
27:14for like doing taxes but professionally
27:18I haven't printed everything out this
27:19year but like I can write on that Word
27:22document okay but can I use the pen to
27:24create documents in completely new ways
27:25so they didn't show me that can I use
27:28the pen to handle my emails in
27:30completely different ways no they didn't
27:31show me that what they showed me is if
27:33I'm a professional illustrator and I've
27:35been drawing since I'm 10 and I can put
27:36produce beautiful drawings this is a
27:39great new tool for me great there's only
27:417 million people subscribing to Creative
27:43Cloud and there's I have one and a half
27:44billion pcs out there so what is the use
27:46case for everybody else and I actually
27:48had exactly the same point around the
27:50Apple pencil it's a beautiful product if
27:52I do every day I don't and so I look at
27:54this thing and I'm like okay this is a
27:56it's great it's a beautiful product it's
27:59very clever it's a great demo if I
28:01bought that would I ever use a pencil
28:04would I ever use that dial here's an
28:07example for me of how why people have to
28:09to wrap themselves around the fact that
28:11work is changing because too many people
28:13especially in the Twitter conversations
28:15that were hard of it's like there are
28:16programmers or there people that sit in
28:19front of their PC like the average
28:20employee at a company now is spending
28:22less than half their time at a desk and
28:25when you start looking at the time that
28:27they're spending on working like it's
28:29all shifting to mobile an example that I
28:30love is that there's something like 25
28:32million salespeople in the United States
28:34and lots of different ways to say ok so
28:38you know there's 25 million salespeople
28:40there were 7 million subscribers to
28:41Adobe Creative Cloud right that's
28:43another one to look at and even but even
28:45if you talk to designers like that
28:46profession is changing because you're on
28:48site you're using you're using iPads to
28:50do presentations and demo
28:52you're you know there are brand-new
28:54products like those that were investors
28:55in that are you know web and iOS
28:57compatible for design but the
29:01interesting thing is is that like if
29:02you're a company like Salesforce
29:03building software for twenty five
29:06million people you know ten years ago
29:08those twenty five million people would
29:09bunch up all their work they'd be on the
29:11train and they would do all their email
29:13and they would do all of their they're
29:15catching up in CRM and stuff on their
29:17laptop offline and they'd sink it or
29:19they they're certainly gonna show up at
29:21the customer with a laptop and plug it
29:23into a VGA port and stuff but those
29:25people now they're highly mobile they're
29:27sitting there they're doing everything
29:28they phone Benioff talks about running
29:29the whole company from his phone yeah
29:31and so this whole class of work well so
29:34one of the things that I've kind of
29:36talked about in the past is this sort of
29:37distance so there's two distinctions
29:39here there is the first is there is this
29:40coreboot group of people who live in
29:42photoshop or live in excel or live in
29:44xcode or living whatever the that is add
29:47all of those people up you get to maybe
29:4950 million people out of one and a half
29:51billion pcs all of them like all the
29:53people who live in Excel all the CPAs
29:55everybody you get maybe it's a hundred
29:57but there's one and a half billion pcs
29:58out there what you then have is you have
30:01a whole bunch of people who every week
30:03or every two weeks do their expenses in
30:05Excel and they say I need a PC or you
30:08know that's a tree we're putting it
30:09every two weeks they do a they pull a
30:12bunch of data out of SA P into a CSV
30:13they put the CSV into Excel they make
30:15charts they put the charts into
30:16PowerPoint they write bullet points that
30:18email to PowerPoint to everybody and so
30:20they will tell you that they need
30:21PowerPoint but actually their job is not
30:22making a PowerPoint yeah yeah and say
30:24that should be a life's a sport and say
30:27that work there's this sort of this is
30:29idea that I can't get my work done on a
30:30Pete on a mobile or on a tablet that's
30:32just for consumptions like well yeah
30:34maybe 5% of the base that's actually
30:37literally true your actual job cannot be
30:39done on this device yet but then there's
30:41everyone else and what L would have all
30:43these other people doing on there people
30:44like in the way to think about it is
30:45back to the ecosystem and where
30:47innovation is and and like imagine you
30:49know you're like a dentist like I was at
30:51the notes this this morning and they're
30:53basically ripping out their PC based
30:55appointment and records tracking system
30:58that they use and they're putting in a
31:00bunch of iPads the way that you saw
31:02restaurant stakeout point-of-sale and
31:03replaced them with iPads connected to
31:04open table and things like
31:06and still goes to the clap right and
31:08it's not just the cloud the way I think
31:10about it is if where most of these
31:11vertical software things come from often
31:13the ones that are the last to change
31:15from from one platform to another is
31:18that there's someone who works in the
31:20that's a domain expert they in fact like
31:23I visited a bunch of medical records
31:24companies and like they're all doctors
31:27that now are like I should do records
31:29because I hate the way it works and if
31:30you're gonna build that you're gonna go
31:32and build that on a mobile platform
31:34that's mobile first that has all of the
31:37capabilities all you know it's sort of
31:39like there's no square reader for a PC
31:41mm-hm you know and so you if you want to
31:43do innovative payments on a PC you're
31:46sort of hooking up a USB port and a card
31:48reader to a stationary Wilson had a
31:50great blog post on this on what would
31:52the I think I actually used a dentist or
31:54a doctor or something
31:55what would the system be in like 20
31:57years ago it would come on a floppy oh
31:59come on a CD and then it would be on a
32:02website and then it would be on a
32:05website that had network effects and
32:06it'll be a network and then you would be
32:08using machine learning but it's like
32:09what would the stuff you what would you
32:10be doing to solve that underlying use
32:12case right and that's and that will in X
32:14would be move away from PC keyboard
32:17mouse well they have and these things
32:18just they take like 10 years to do it
32:20you know like the Multiple Listing
32:21Service for real estate agents here in
32:23the US was you know it was very much
32:25like a PC based thing and then it moved
32:27to the web and then all of a sudden you
32:29have redfin and Zillow and all of these
32:31things that show up that do it in a
32:33whole different way and of course it
32:35makes you know and and everything is
32:36gonna make more sense if you move around
32:38what I would say is to wrap up where
32:40ever we are on the s-curve it was
32:41exciting to see new things appear mm-hmm
32:44but I do think it's important especially
32:46for people building stuff is to just
32:48remember that there's always these
32:50bursts of excitement as you move down
32:52the s-curve but look at the macro-level
32:53and how this really impacts you know
32:56where things are gonna be in three or
32:57five years you know but I never want to
32:59take away from the fact that people are
33:00working hard and they're doing you know
33:02really good work innovating and that's
33:05why it's always such an emotional debate
33:06because there are people that are doing
33:08auto cad today yeah and if they got some
33:11of these new devices then AutoCAD gets
33:12better tomorrow yes and that's a very
33:14real thing yes it's just that people
33:17sometimes lose perspective that
33:19the chatter in the technology industry
33:20are all people planning for 3 4 or 5 or
33:2310 years from now as best they can
33:24yeah and most people aren't using
33:26AutoCAD or illustrator you win yeah well
33:28thanks everybody this has been another
33:30edition of Steven and Benedict rambling
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