00:00welcome to the a 16c podcast I'm Michael
00:02Copeland virtual-reality is coming fast
00:06and everyone seems to assume that it
00:08will be gamers who get to have all the
00:09fun first but there are other
00:11applications for VR that could also
00:13bring it into the mainstream it could
00:16very well be business users says a 16
00:19ZZZ Chris Dixon it's anything where you
00:22would want time travel or teleportation
00:24he says Dixon is joined on this segment
00:27of the podcast by Saku pundit erat name
00:30and kyle russell both on the firm's deal
00:32team to offer their perspective on how
00:35virtual reality is likely to enter all
00:37of our lives 2016 promises to be the
00:40year when more than a very small number
00:42of people will get their first taste of
00:44VR what does VR look like and feel like
00:48and what does that shared experience set
00:51in motion on this segment of the a 16 z
00:54podcast Chris Dixon starts the
00:56conversation the first question is kind
00:59of where are we in terms of VR you know
01:03like oculus and and valve are launching
01:06this year there's gear in cardboard
01:10maybe Kyle you know can you kind of talk
01:12about the current landscape yeah so last
01:15fall we saw the launch of the gear VR
01:17which is compatible with Samsung phones
01:19and it's kind of the prototypical mobile
01:22VR headset you take your high-end
01:24smartphone you slot it in it provides
01:26optics that make the flat screen on your
01:30phone into a an immersive screen that
01:33kind of you know fills your vision and
01:35also adds some motion sensors so that
01:37it's tracking of your head is more
01:38accurate and then you know last month
01:42and then this month the oculus rift and
01:46HTC vive were both the pre-orders were
01:50announced respectively those are kind of
01:53the high-end approaches to VR they hook
01:55up to a high-end gaming PC and they
01:58provide positional tracking which means
02:00that it tracks not only how you turn
02:02your head but how you move forward
02:03backward to the side which means you
02:06have kind of a more immersive experience
02:07you can see things from different angles
02:09so it feels like you're in the world
02:12because you can move relative
02:13to it no so both of those are having
02:16their initial launches the spring oculus
02:18the first units will ship in March the
02:21vibe the first units will ship in April
02:23it was kind of slow I think of it as low
02:26in in high end and then the high end is
02:28oculus the HTC vive valve vive and the
02:32rumored PlayStation and the low end is
02:34gear and cardboard and eventually
02:38obviously these will probably converge
02:39and they'll all have features like
02:41positional tracking but for this year
02:42there's sort of a separation right yeah
02:44no you talk to anyone and this is when
02:46things where leaks are kind of slowly
02:48but surely making their way out of Apple
02:50and Google you'll see lots of great
02:52scoops coming from for instance the
02:54Financial Times that done one for Apple
02:55and Google recently where it's clear
02:57that they have hundreds of people
02:59working on these and when it comes to
03:02what kinds of hardware they're working
03:04on they do want to bring the hot parts
03:07of the high-end experience the things
03:08that we consider like the differentiator
03:10that give immersion presents however you
03:12want to describe that bring that down to
03:14mobile because I think everyone
03:16understands that the mobile as a
03:18platform is you know 10 times larger
03:20than desktop will ever be and while the
03:23capabilities today of desktop VR are
03:25really impressive if you want to become
03:27truly mainstream you want to reach
03:30people who have smartphones I think the
03:32feeling is the next couple of years will
03:33be the years of VR for gamers and for
03:36prosumers so people who are really
03:38enthusiastic about VR are the ones who
03:39have the high-end version and like the
03:41mobile is just going like a teaser for
03:43the general populace so what like let's
03:45just go in some detail so for example
03:47the we've tried all these demos the the
03:52oculus sort of the consumer toy box is
03:55an incredible demo a lot of the valve
03:57demos are really good where you have
03:59room scale you know one thing I'm
04:02excited about is this is these demos
04:04have been available you know for kind of
04:08they'll finally be public and even if
04:11you know only I don't know a million
04:12people get these devices this year maybe
04:1510 million will get to try it and you
04:17know some significant subset of those
04:20micro start companies
04:22and so you sort of have this really
04:24interesting period happening
04:26but but maybe I maybe we can give a sort
04:29of a flavor for what these the the demos
04:32feel like in the high-end low-end I
04:34think the really critical difference
04:35between low and high end is that the
04:37high end VR actually achieves presence
04:39so you feel like you're you know trixl
04:41is a brain thinking actually there i
04:43think the mobile were not quite there
04:44yet so it's it's a little bit sometimes
04:46it's kind of so you say presents that's
04:48a that's a term of art and VR which
04:50refers to just kind of what people have
04:53found through empirical testing is just
04:55that once you get sort of there's a
04:56threshold a minimum threshold of kind of
04:59enough of your senses are tricked that
05:01you just you sort of use a bit flips and
05:05your brain says i'm now in this virtual
05:07world as opposed to i'm standing here
05:10looking at a screen right so mobile VR
05:14it's it's the speculative video it's
05:16interactive experience that's kind of
05:19game-like and has graphics from the late
05:211990s video games or maybe you know
05:23playstation 2 right when it first came
05:25out and then you work your way up the
05:27spectrum and you have these higher-end
05:29headsets that do give presents and now
05:32kind of the discussion is around
05:34okay so positional tracking you're
05:36seated but it's you can move your head
05:38around and you feel like you're there
05:39okay that's great now we'll start
05:41talking about standing up experiences in
05:43room scale and when we talk about room
05:45scale we're talking about oculus rift
05:47with several cameras and it can track
05:49you as you move around in a let's say
05:51three by three or five foot by five foot
05:54space and you it's almost like having
05:57like you can interact with parts of the
05:59room around you and then you graduate up
06:01to you know what we would call I guess
06:03true room scale which is what you have
06:05from day one on the HTC vive which is it
06:08has sensors that you place in the
06:09corners of the room and you can have up
06:11to 15 by 15 feet space and you can
06:13actually walk oh I'm gonna go look at
06:16what that thing over there and actually
06:17physically walk over instead of using a
06:19controller to move your avatar I mean
06:21this is one of the important things I
06:22think when you've tried these things
06:23like some of the critics most of whom I
06:25think haven't tried the the high-end VR
06:27compare VR to 3d TV there's you know
06:31with low-end devices it is a little bit
06:32like 3d TV and that you have just a sort
06:34of you know you have this parallax
06:36effect but it's only for far away's for
06:38our field objects right with the with
06:40the high end you actually are able to
06:42like literally walk around like this you
06:44know you're sculpting something like in
06:46the medium demo or in one of these
06:47you're sculpting an object you're
06:49actually able to walk around completely
06:51and it just feels like that object is
06:54there and and it feels like that in a
06:56very intense and you know kind of yeah I
07:02think about in terms of marginal change
07:04in experience where if you're looking at
07:07mobile VR it's a step up from the kind
07:10of video where you move your phone
07:11around you but it's still at times you
07:15can feel gimmicky it really depends on
07:16implementation but it's not that
07:19revolutionary of an experience it's a
07:20teaser but then when you move up to okay
07:23software as this world I'm stepping into
07:25and you know you one of the kind of
07:28frequent things you'll see that you know
07:29were people who were skeptics came out
07:31and pressed was they thought to lean
07:33against a virtual table to you know look
07:36at something even higher or they thought
07:37to put a controller down on a you know a
07:39virtual couch and they forgot that it
07:42wasn't real that's kind of where you
07:45start to hear just like the hints of oh
07:46this is why it's so powerful I think one
07:48thing that's interesting is that in VR
07:50because of this threshold is so binary a
07:52lot of the technical problems are about
07:54getting over the threshold so whether
07:55that's in capture or rendering or any of
07:58the even the headset technology it's
08:01really key to have like be over that
08:03threshold to get presents so let's talk
08:05about that the unsolved problems in VR
08:07because that so the big companies are
08:09working primarily it seems on headsets
08:13but there's a whole kind of chain of
08:16things that need to be built out
08:18including content creation you know
08:21what's going on there yeah so with with
08:25tools it's like as a debate whether for
08:27your content is either going to be
08:28captured from camera or whether it's can
08:30be rendered like a video game or whether
08:32like like films are today it's going to
08:34be a mix of both but despite which
08:37everyone is ultimately becomes the
08:39winner like still the tools need to be
08:41built out so right now it seems like
08:43most of the people make doing VR content
08:45are using game engines like unity and
08:47unreal or their Garrity racing towards
08:49360 or light feel video
08:51so they seem to be like the main
08:53categories for creating but there's all
08:55sorts of ones I mean there's companies
08:56working on it but there's a lot of work
08:57to be done right like a lot of
08:58opportunity for new things like for
09:00example like you know it's a difficult
09:03compression problem for example there's
09:05a ton more data than you normally have
09:06right like filled technology is is like
09:09an emerging thing you could explain what
09:11so life filled is it's a way of
09:13capturing video which also takes into
09:15account the angle at which you look at
09:16an object so it's more similar to a
09:19hologram than the thinner than the video
09:21so but you know as you can imagine if
09:24you capture more than just you know your
09:27view you have to capture an object from
09:28all different views that's a lot of data
09:30and so that's really overwhelming for
09:32the current video streaming
09:33infrastructure that we have so it's
09:35going to be a way to make that smaller
09:36and easier the capture also edit because
09:40it's you know it's very different from
09:42what happened and there's like so for
09:43example like you mentioned to have
09:44movies today or a combination of filmed
09:46and rendered content like one of the
09:48demos I saw was you're at a basketball
09:50game and real basketball players and
09:52that's filmed that is filmed in ideally
09:54in light field so you have a full 3d and
09:55you can move around and it feels like
09:56you're there but then you're sitting
09:58next to your virtual friends right
10:00instead of sitting next to strangers
10:01you're sitting next your friend who
10:02actually is in you know my friends
10:04actually in Moscow and Chicago and
10:06whatever and but we're all sitting there
10:09and so there's part of it and sort of
10:10this real thing and part of it is
10:12virtual right it's like like the Space
10:15Jam type mixture how do you do all of
10:17that it's a very hard problem to make
10:20there are tools yet I mean even the
10:24other thing with you know creating VR
10:26movies and films and games is that
10:29performance is so important because we
10:31have to be above this presents threshold
10:32so you need a really really high-end
10:34game engine which is basically 90 frames
10:36per second I guess with oculus is
10:37running rate which is higher than most
10:39game consoles for movies so it's just a
10:42high official so if you're doing a film
10:43you know you can take as long as you
10:45want to render it so it's like a
10:46different type of tool chain which will
10:48probably be needed there and even if
10:50you're not talking about light fields if
10:51you're just talking about traditional
10:52video but you're stitching together 360
10:54degrees worth of footage captured on
10:56what are essentially you know like the
10:58kuma Gemma's yeah yeah so Google jump
11:02was a collaboration with GoPro where
11:04set of you know let's say 15 GoPros and
11:06then sticking them into a rig and then
11:08stitching the video from all of them
11:11115 cameras worth of 4k footage is a ton
11:14of data the tools for stitching them
11:17together in a way that doesn't have
11:19really stark lines between the different
11:21cameras they capture that is actually a
11:24pretty tricky to problem-solve and then
11:25when it comes to as sake what mentioned
11:27streaming even streaming one 4k video is
11:31really intensive for most people's data
11:33connections so you're starting to see
11:35really clever solutions where you know
11:39you look at how people transcode video
11:40today they'll have let's say high end
11:44low end versions of views like say you
11:48have 360-degree video they'll break it
11:51up into 30 different views and as you
11:53look to different places it'll switch to
11:55the high resolution stream for that
11:57specific way you're looking and so you
11:59have to have on the back end stored all
12:0130 of those different views and then
12:03have a system that can switch between
12:05them quick enough that your connection
12:07can keep up and that's you know Facebook
12:09has recently open sourced their efforts
12:11on it next VR has done some really
12:13interesting stuff for their live
12:14streaming of sporting events but there's
12:17still a lot more work to be done in
12:18terms of tools to do that for live
12:20events and also just to continue to
12:23improve the quality and make it so that
12:24you know you don't actually have to be
12:26connected to your home Wi-Fi on a
12:28gigabit connection to have like a
12:30perfect experience I thought one of the
12:32coolest things I solidly was at unreal
12:34video which was a demonstration of using
12:38VR to actually create 3d content right
12:40because I think the the metaphor people
12:43there were the assumption people had
12:44made kind of before was you would use a
12:462d screen with Unity unreal create 3d
12:51content the way we have I'll always have
12:52and then export it to VR right and this
12:55idea actually inverts that right and
12:57you're creating in 3d maybe even for a
12:582d maybe even for content that's
13:02ultimately consumed on a screen or maybe
13:03something in the real world maybe you're
13:05making an airplane wing right and if you
13:07think about using AutoCAD today like
13:08it's a very it's a very difficult thing
13:10for people to learn who aren't experts
13:11in 3d modeling because you're having to
13:14work on the 2d screen and so the idea
13:15kind of Iron Man style that you can work
13:173d environment I thought it was a very
13:18very exciting possibility because like
13:23that's what's interesting in terms of
13:24talking about input you know it's a new
13:27paradigm and it's tricky to develop for
13:28but you look at a mouse and it's I it's
13:31a motion tracking like hand controller
13:33that only works on the plane yeah and so
13:35you're like if you put in those sense
13:36it's like well actually that's kind of a
13:38really awkward way to interact with lots
13:39of fun you've got things you've got
13:41millions of people who use AutoCAD using
13:43this this 2d hand controller the mouse
13:45it's just primitive 2d and controller
13:47right and they've learned over years
13:49going to school and everything else how
13:50to do it and those people by the way
13:52would be happy to pay they pay thousands
13:54of dollars per per you know for their
13:55rigs tens of thousands of dollars for
13:57their machines and their software and
13:58everything like they'd be very happy for
14:00a high end I think CAD for example just
14:02no-brainer is gonna move to VR the next
14:05so so to help visualize what this looks
14:07like for people again who haven't seen
14:08these videos or tried these experiences
14:11imagine you know you're building a
14:13replica of your living room and you have
14:16a selection of couches and sofas and TVs
14:19and fireplaces that you could drop into
14:20a room to build it up to look like your
14:22room and you want it maybe the scale
14:24isn't quite right you could you know
14:26pick up your couch with these motion
14:28tracking controllers and then use
14:30essentially 3d pinch-to-zoom to rescale
14:32and it feels much more naturalistic than
14:35messing with parameters or using a mouse
14:38wheel to adjust how big something is
14:39pressing command + + + until it looks
14:42kind of right yeah and I think it might
14:44be the right time now for these kind of
14:46prosumer tools because you know real VR
14:48isn't gonna reach most people for a
14:50couple of years and so it's not gonna be
14:51a mass-market thing until then so it
14:53might be the specialists who a real need
14:55for these tools you might want to use it
14:57in the next coming years yep people
14:59people just this assumption that it's
15:01all gonna be gamers I think is just as
15:02highly to me is highly questionable and
15:04it could very well be business users
15:05like this at first so one question is
15:07are the problems need to be solved by
15:09they are we on a clear trajectory to
15:11solving them or they're like is there
15:13fundamental science to be done or is it
15:15just kind of like Moore's Law and
15:17bandwidth will get better and devices
15:19will get better are we on a clear path
15:20to these things getting much better I'd
15:23say there's two sets of problems there's
15:25the ones that we've been talking about
15:26which I would say are very much so just
15:28engineering the snot out of them and
15:30you have this and interfaces that
15:31actually is preferable to what we're all
15:33used to there is and that's gonna happen
15:35I mean it's a lot of work involved not
15:37gonna not to just minute diminish that
15:39but there but it's it's a standard hard
15:42engineering problem that we've that the
15:43community it's all before right I mean
15:45you know we are constant looking at the
15:48space and no matter what category of
15:50problem you're looking at on that side
15:52of things it feels like we're seeing
15:53regular improvements yeah I would say
15:55like a lot of the problems in VR are
15:57tied to the performance of GPUs and
15:59those are on a Moore's Law style
16:00exponential curve so ads everything from
16:02processing like fill video which is a
16:04big problem to just the performance of
16:06games and just a new rendered experience
16:09in VR and that kind of speed is also
16:11part of it if you want to talk about
16:13problems where it is actual hard science
16:15that's kind of where you're talking
16:17about the treating virtual reality in
16:19terms of actually a reality where it's
16:22tricking your brain and making you think
16:23it's a real one even though it's fake so
16:25that's things like having a field of
16:27view that fills your entire vision and
16:30doesn't just you know look like kind of
16:31a box like or you know looking through a
16:33pair of swimming goggles and seeing this
16:35virtual world but making it look like
16:36it's an entirety of your world or things
16:38like how to what extent do we need to
16:41trick the brain to have interesting
16:43haptic feedback to make it feel like
16:44when you touch something in the virtual
16:46world you know you yourself can feel it
16:48whether it's gloves or a bodysuit or if
16:50it's a clever trick you know we've seen
16:52some things where it's you wear kind of
16:55like a bracer on your arm and it taps
16:57you in different places and because of
16:59the other sensory input of sound coming
17:01in things that you're seeing having that
17:03extra tap your your brain kind of fills
17:06in the rest of what that sensation was
17:07and you know makes you think that you
17:10interacted with something it brushed
17:11against you that really is a hard
17:13science problem and that's where you see
17:15like Michael Abrash come onstage and
17:16talk about you know illusions and how we
17:19trick the brain those are things where
17:21you know over the next 10 years it's
17:22kind of hard to predict where we'll go
17:24but it's probably going to be really
17:25transformative and go way beyond really
17:27what we're expecting today that's true
17:29but I think those things are kind of
17:31outside the really important problems
17:33that need to be solved I think you know
17:35if you just had VR in a very high
17:37quality headset with good visuals and a
17:39good controller I think people would but
17:41you know I hear thank
17:44I think they could live with that
17:45without having the haptic feedback but
17:46that's just my I think that's very true
17:48for especially for these early use cases
17:50I think that the hard science things are
17:52going are going to be what lead to the
17:54totally unexpected use cases that we're
17:57all going to be used to ten years from
17:59now one obvious use case for VRS games
18:01and we've seen a lot of companies that
18:02are making games and there will be a lot
18:04of great games on VR and that might
18:06propel some of the early adoption what
18:09are some of the other you know
18:10potentially interesting apps yeah I
18:12think live streaming of events is going
18:14to be like a really popular sports and
18:17music sports music but it might even be
18:19that you know officer this becomes
18:21popular you have events or infamous
18:23audience at once so it's kind of like
18:27participation we saw a demo which is
18:30like a point cloud capture of mixed
18:33martial arts so you have like you can
18:36basically rewatch the mixed martial arts
18:37fight and walk around in the arena like
18:40you're the ref and like rewind it and
18:42see the whole thing and same thing
18:44extreme sports like yeah you ski down
18:47the mountain yeah I'm not a personally
18:50into sports but I could imagine people
18:51that are it's pretty awesome I mean you
18:53see like the N you watch like the Super
18:54Bowl and just like the new camera angles
18:56they have and things it's just like that
18:57times 10x ya know and this is something
19:00where you'll talk to people in the NBA
19:01or NFL and you see on TV when you watch
19:04broadcasts I'll do every hour - you'll
19:08see they'll take a really impressive
19:10play that happened and zoom in really
19:12close and turn around with like a matrix
19:14when neo dodges the bullet that scene
19:16where you go around and you zoom in and
19:18see like the interesting angle and how
19:20intense the face was on the guy who did
19:22it and right now they can that takes
19:25like an hour of processing to get
19:26one-second worth of footage and you know
19:29over the next couple of years volumetric
19:30capture kind of you know it's invested
19:32in more you know new break this happened
19:35because people are really paying
19:36attention to it because of VR arising
19:38you'll start to see just events entirely
19:40recorded that way other interesting
19:44things in terms of content and this is
19:46where again the blending of real world
19:48via light fields and rendered content
19:50and something that lives in the video
19:54the idea of and this is something that's
19:57also talked about with augmented reality
19:58though is like recording someone doing a
20:01task and you get to observe them doing
20:04it and also in a virtual space and you
20:07could have that for repairing a car
20:09let's say where people today will you
20:12know set up their iPhone and record them
20:14changing the oil on a car and then I'll
20:16now you could set up a VR camera right
20:19under the hood and say here's exactly
20:22what you need to be doing and here's the
20:23perspective that you'll have as you're
20:24doing the task and you know I think the
20:28that kind of thing again like maybe in
20:32terms of user-generated content where a
20:34couple years away just because there's
20:35not quite really great you know prosumer
20:38tear a couple hundred dollars or a few
20:40thousand dollar cameras that make that
20:42easy but I think that that's gonna be a
20:43big use case is not so much like hey
20:47here's you know a video of me out at the
20:50park with my dog you know as a random
20:52things that people put on YouTube but
20:54things where you know you want to share
20:56an experience whether it's something
20:58cool you did or you know a skill you
21:01have that you think is worth sharing
21:02with the world that seems like something
21:04for VR where it'll make a lot of sense
21:05as that capture becomes more available
21:07it's funny you know if you go back and
21:09you read about like when early pcs
21:11everyone was trying to figure what would
21:14you do with them and they always talked
21:16about recipes for some reason that was
21:18always the thing it's turned out to be
21:19kind of useful on the web but you know
21:21not like the only use case for computers
21:23for sure and then mobile it was always
21:25these things where you could check the
21:27stock market and the weather that was
21:29what people thought would be the case in
21:31like and so I think games are sort of
21:33that version of ER where everyone thinks
21:35it's games and we'll kind of look back
21:37and laugh I mean I think it's basically
21:39my view I mean this is the obviously
21:41optimistic view is that it's basically
21:43anything where you'd want time travel or
21:45teleportation you can now do in VR right
21:48so for example I think like ocean drift
21:50is a really cool app in you know you can
21:53use an oculus which as in the old
21:57paradigm of staring at a rectangle
21:59across the room would have been really
22:00boring you're just swimming around the
22:02ocean right but in VR it's like I'm
22:04underwater I'm in the ocean there's a
22:05shark and like it's when they show you a
22:07they they you can only see the shark
22:09when you're in a cage because it's like
22:11super intense and scary if you weren't
22:13in cage and so that's an example of just
22:16like the kind of thing which you know I
22:18think for example instead of kids
22:20reading a really boring textbook about
22:23ancient Rome like hey let's go watch
22:25them build an aqueduct or something I'm
22:27like it's just so much more interesting
22:28if you could go visit it right like
22:30school education will be just vastly
22:32more interesting hey instead of talking
22:34on the phone or whatever you know
22:36texting is your friend like let's go
22:38virtually sit together and watch I mean
22:40that's actually one of the problems of
22:41VR right is that like from the outside
22:43it looks so antisocial yet for me and
22:44it's one of the technologies that the
22:47the contrast between what you're
22:48experiencing and how you look from the
22:50outside is more heightened than anything
22:52else because it looks like you're you
22:54know the zombie sitting in a you know in
22:57it in a in a chamber or something but in
22:59fact inside of it you're like it's the
23:01opposite yeah I think what I think's
23:03really exciting is like what the
23:05descendant of like MMO games will be in
23:07VR so it's like you know in World of
23:09like how's the attraction for those
23:10people was like going around with that
23:12guild and like being a team you know and
23:14they do in VR you take that to the next
23:16level you can go have like a whole
23:17village you can live in this in the game
23:19and just have like well it's for people
23:23to dream up what's gonna be a game and
23:25people you know you look back a decade
23:27and a half ago when like Second Life
23:29first came out and people were on really
23:31bad broadband connections were dial-up
23:34and they had really basic looking
23:36avatars and still hundreds of thousands
23:39of people you know we're living virtual
23:40lives they had virtual currencies they
23:43were making different virtual objects
23:44that they would share with each other
23:46and payment real money for and it's just
23:49not even a step change it's a huge
23:51exponential change compared in terms of
23:53experience with what you could get even
23:56with today's VR hardware if you you know
23:58really had the back-end infrastructure
24:01and came up with let's you know a couple
24:03of use cases where you know that would
24:04bring you back every day it's also
24:08interesting to think of even business
24:09use cases where I think we've all had
24:12difficulties with Skype or Google
24:14Hangouts or you know any telepresence
24:19you know either the connection was bad
24:22or you know you could see the other
24:26person's like checking their Gmail
24:28window while they were talking to you
24:29and I think we're only a couple years
24:32out from having things where it's
24:33tracking the muscles on your face
24:35tracking the movement of your eyes where
24:37your avatars could really reflect what
24:39you look like at that time and you could
24:41do things like have an entire meeting
24:43where eight different people are in you
24:45know different locations but they all
24:47feel like they're in the same conference
24:48room and they're walking across the
24:49table and meet mat matching each other's
24:51eye contact and you can just have
24:54meetings that are much more effective
24:56than you would have over the phone or
24:57over you know via video over IP it's
25:01interesting because yeah the internet
25:02supposedly was gonna make distributed
25:03teams work so well yet you know still so
25:07many teams are not distributed and find
25:08that doesn't work and one hypothesis is
25:11that it's just because you've we haven't
25:13been able to sufficiently recreate all
25:16the important things of kind of
25:17interpersonal communication that
25:19happened in real life but might might be
25:23on the threshold of being able to do
25:24that sort of the intimacy is you made
25:25like making eye contact and you know you
25:28think about why do salespeople fly
25:30across the country to close a
25:31multi-million dollar deal because people
25:33don't write multimillion-dollar checks
25:34until you you know make eye contact and
25:36have this dinner and there's sort of
25:39this emotional component to a lot of a
25:41lot of work activities that just can't
25:47be captured on the current communication
25:48technologies yeah and you know I think
25:52you know you mentioned toy box earlier
25:54which is an oculus rift demo where it's
25:57you with the oculus rift and the two
25:59touch controllers which track your hand
26:01movement and another person in another
26:03room maybe you know down the hall or in
26:05a different building or wherever and
26:07just with today's tracking plus the
26:10microphones built into the headset and
26:12the fact that their headphones built-in
26:14bed set that are pretty high quality
26:16even without an avatar that looks like
26:18you it's just like a translucent head
26:20and you know the hands that pretty much
26:23approximate how you just stick you late
26:25while you talk it feels like you're
26:27there with the specific person you can
26:29see that was one of the most surprising
26:30things to me about the demo was how how
26:31it really felt like the person was there
26:34and you just can't unfortunately you
26:36just have to try to feel that right it
26:38says you can't give in skeptics without
26:39drying it but it's actually quite
26:41amazing how little you need to convince
26:43someone's butt so like I remember seeing
26:46one oculus know it was cool like night
26:48club or something it was really just
26:49your cube your friend was a cube and
26:52like you could just move your head and
26:53then their cubed rotate but it's even
26:55then because the motion was so and the
26:58sound matters a lot you know that's one
27:00thing we can replicate imperfectly is
27:01three-dimensional sound right the
27:03technology is there for that and so
27:05right those things matter so much right
27:07and then the big technical problem for
27:09social VR is this kind of back-end
27:11infrastructure the same technology they
27:13do use in multiplayer games just become
27:15really important though right if you're
27:17going to have this med over Metaverse
27:19from science fiction how do you have
27:21tens hundreds thousands maybe millions
27:24of people simultaneously in a world do
27:26you have instances in like in World of
27:28Warcraft where people are you know could
27:30reach each other but for the most part
27:33you're in like an area that only has a
27:35hundred people total and now if you go
27:36to this other area then you know you've
27:38load onto a different like part of the
27:39server and you know or do you have you
27:42know something where it's simulating all
27:43of it and there's new different shards
27:46where you're breaking it down into
27:47smaller bits we have yeah we have an
27:49investment here improbable which is I
27:52think of as you know if you read ready
27:54player one which hopefully the listeners
27:56have read is canonical we are book the
28:00there's a section where they describe
28:01the system called Oasis it's and that's
28:03featured in the book and there's two
28:05parts to the system there's the headset
28:06and there's the back-end infrastructure
28:08which lets you create these kind of
28:10unlimited virtual spaces and that's
28:13something which needs to be created
28:14there are other facets that are maybe
28:17less pressing but will also lead to
28:20really interesting possibilities for
28:22instance IBM just announced that they're
28:24going to try to use Watson to provide
28:26basically an AI interaction system for a
28:29game based on an anime about a VR MMO so
28:34the idea there is you'd be able to
28:37interact with characters in the game
28:38kind of like how in games let's say from
28:40Bioware where you can choose different
28:42dialogue options and get different
28:43reactions based on how your response was
28:46was aggressive or were you trying to be
28:48conciliatory you could have things where
28:51you actually talked to that character
28:53and it tries to read what you're saying
28:54yeah this is probably why I'm isn't
28:56actually just released the game engine
28:58because has connections to AWS so
29:01I guess I think what they the plan is to
29:03have that as the backend or are these
29:06people a bit so it's a little bit about
29:08augmented reality you know which which
29:11there's things like Microsoft has the
29:14hololens and then there's companies like
29:16magic leap you know and and that's some
29:19people are more excited about AR than VR
29:21i think you could argue that there's a
29:24spectrum right that they're not as
29:26sharply distinguished that people say in
29:27the sense that you can you know vr will
29:30very soon sort of scan the room around
29:32you and put you back in the room and add
29:34things on to the room and and so it
29:38really it comes down to sort of there's
29:40a mixture in what you're viewing between
29:42what's real and what's virtual and these
29:45one extreme is it's all virtual the
29:46other extreme is nothing and it's all
29:48real and then there's stuff in between
29:50and so what do you guys think about
29:52about what's gonna happen in AR on the
29:55well Microsoft actually at Ted just
29:59announced that they're delaying the
30:00consumer release of halal and so they I
30:03think they know so they're going to
30:07continue with their basically like for
30:09enterprise slash people who want to
30:11develop a really augmented reality
30:13applications against all $3,000
30:15you know if they cool enough the Google
30:16glass and you know Explorer edition one
30:20to just experiment with and then I think
30:22they realized that they needed to have
30:23kind of kill at least one killer app for
30:27consumers you know a use case where you
30:30buy this thing whether it's a thousand
30:32dollars as a consumer product or
30:33actually goes all the way up to three
30:34thousand who knows but something where
30:35you'd actually want to use as a consumer
30:37I think that that's kind of reflective
30:41of the rest of the space and that it
30:43doesn't quite feel like there's any
30:44applications today for regular people
30:47where it makes sense there are some
30:49things that feel compelling it's a
30:52harder technical problem to though
30:54because you have to to be able to put a
30:56virtual object in the real world you
30:57have to interpret and understand the
30:59right hard machine vision problem right
31:01this is falls into kind of the class of
31:04technology it's not slam simultaneous
31:06localization and mapping where you have
31:07to be aware of exactly what the room
31:10looks like around you and then
31:11constantly be checking where is the
31:14headset and therefore the viewer in
31:15relation to that well and where's the
31:17vert and if I have this virtual soda can
31:18I have to know it's a real table and the
31:20table can support it and the physics are
31:22right and there's a whole set of
31:23problems a better that are in addition
31:26to what you need to do for for regular
31:28VR right so you're doing the compute of
31:29rendering what that virtual object looks
31:31like and then you're also doing that
31:32slam work figuring out where it should
31:35all be and those are both really hard
31:37but that's it it feels like there are
31:39some you know potential enterprise use
31:41cases again going back to the training
31:42example while training in VR is
31:45compelling the idea of being able to
31:48have something overlaid on top of the
31:50task you're trying to do pointing out
31:52how you're fixing an airplane engine and
31:54overlay it on the engine is is like the
31:56instructions for how to do it or
31:57whatever the right right or maybe it has
31:59for instance with the whole Internet of
32:01Things trend their sensors on everything
32:03maybe it's constantly giving you a
32:05readout of different sensors so you know
32:06oh I just turned this crank and it
32:09actually you know raised the pressure
32:10too much on that dial I should actually
32:12probably bring that back and you cannot
32:14know all that in real time I think one
32:16interesting about a RF is VR is if you
32:18know PR is you can only spend like a
32:20small fraction of your day in VR perhaps
32:23so but I guess for they are the
32:25potential is you can have it on all the
32:27time and perhaps that's what gets people
32:29more excited about AR and VR whether
32:31that's actually gonna happen that's
32:32actually how it's gonna play out is
32:33really debatable and then there's
32:36certain things where at first glance it
32:38seems like something is use-case like
32:40the idea of 3d modeling but having it
32:41sure the model flows next to you in the
32:43real world you can look at it from
32:44different angles that is kind of
32:46compelling except for the way you know
32:48what's nice about editing that all in VR
32:50is you get to see the final context of
32:53what you'd have that model in so if
32:55you're building a game world for
32:56instance you could see how that model
32:58fits in with lighting and you know the
33:00particulars that you using does it match
33:02the rest of the environment whereas just
33:04having an arbitrary 3d model floating
33:05around may not actually be that useful
33:07right another thing is like the upper
33:10bound for how much time you can spend in
33:11VR is how much time you spend looking
33:13screens anyway and that's I would say
33:15like maybe 20% of your working out
33:17waking hours it's not unreasonable and
33:20you could say that you know what makes
33:22mobile devices like smartphones so
33:24powerful is it can feel kind of the
33:25empty times throughout your day it's you
33:28know you're not sitting down for you
33:30know okay now it's Facebook time I've
33:32got an hour free I'm gonna go on
33:33Facebook it's no okay I'm between tasks
33:35I was walking to the bank but it turns
33:37out there was 20 people in line so I'm
33:39gonna go check my updates and maybe send
33:41a snap whereas you know with VR you're
33:44not gonna fill empty time they are you
33:47know the case could be made that you
33:48could use in that way as fans of VR what
33:51do we hope happens in 2016 well a recent
33:55announcement that got me really excited
33:57for what's gonna happen to be on 2016 is
33:59the idea or that Samsung is going to be
34:02providing gear VR s to the first 300,000
34:06people who order a Samsung Galaxy s7
34:09through their site they're going to be
34:11doing a similar offer for people who buy
34:12through other channels so we're gonna
34:14see potentially millions of people get a
34:16VR headset for free in the next couple
34:18of months and again while that's not
34:21kind of the ideal of what we consider
34:23you know VXR what VR experience it
34:25should be gear VR is enough of a taste
34:28of what VR can be like it the you know
34:30at the high end when you have a
34:31comfortable headset that you're not
34:32holding up that you know sits on your
34:34head and you can play some games you can
34:37watch some videos and be pretty
34:39that's exciting just because people will
34:41understand oh this is possible I would
34:45say at the higher end we're really
34:47excited for is to see both how oculus
34:52rift and vive do they're watching at a
34:54fairly high price you know $600 for the
34:56very f to $800 for the vive but they're
34:59coming as if you've already tasted VR
35:03it's a pretty compelling bundle rift
35:04coming with you know a game that
35:06satisfies some hardcore people with a
35:08Valkyrie but also you'll be able to show
35:10it to your kids with Lucky's tale which
35:12is like a Mario style platformer but
35:15then on the vibe they're gonna have
35:16these experiences that really take
35:17advantage of room scale so things like
35:21the idea is you're in office and you can
35:24do a bunch of like silly behaviors but
35:27the it's basically you know you if you
35:29went into an office and could do
35:31anything and there were no repercussions
35:33you know solitary offices it's mundane
35:37and just looking at the different you
35:40know the doors that will open up in
35:43people's minds and understanding what's
35:44possible I don't think that either of
35:46them has to do particularly well you
35:48know we don't we won't have to see a
35:50connect style 10 million units in 60
35:52days I don't think that's going to be
35:54the case but it's going to make a lot
35:57more people understand where it could go
35:59I guess the the main thing is um that I
36:04was like what kind of games are gonna be
36:06on VR because that is the initial market
36:08right and so this year is gonna be all
36:09about gamers and I mean I'm just curious
36:13to see what the VR content will be like
36:14and whether people are gonna be really
36:17excited about games and I think that
36:18would be really good for VR if if people
36:21really want to play these I think the
36:23key for me the key metric is not number
36:25of units sold on the high end it's the
36:27number of demos given it's like it's how
36:30many people get to try in VR which I
36:32just think will create a whole new wave
36:34of excitement and and new companies and
36:38new content and so you know this is the
36:41year people finally get to try what
36:42we're talking about and I've I have yet
36:47to see anyone I've seen a number I love
36:49this the ones that just went in Gizmodo
36:51last week and there was one time before
36:52of like the most skeptical people on
36:55earth who finally tried the high-end
36:56stuff and they and universally get
36:58converted and so the third paragraph is
37:00generally an apology for all the things
37:02they've said I made fun of everybody I
37:04thought it was so dumb it was 3d TV and
37:06I just tried it oh my god yes that will
37:08be I think I hope ten million people
37:10will be saying that this year that's it
37:12this is where the fact that ill beam you
37:15know the oculus search will be invest by
37:16starting in April that's really exciting
37:18the challenge there is having a quality
37:21demo in terms of you know these are
37:22brand new experiences and people
37:25generally need a little bit of guidance
37:26when they need to train the salespeople
37:29and that's where will you get
37:31salespeople that truly understand like
37:32here are the pros you know here the best
37:35kinds of experiences you're gonna have
37:36not overselling it and you know
37:39convincing people they're buying a
37:40matrix rig but saying you know you're
37:42gonna it's gonna be like a gaming issue
37:44experience but you know more immersive
37:46than anything you've ever tried before
37:48you know having this practical kind of
37:51balanced approach to selling it that's
37:55kind of a big unknown about how well
37:57that'll be executed on but even the fact
38:00that it'll be available you know there's
38:01going to be a whole new class of early
38:03adopters who just haven't been able to
38:05go to e3 or the Game Developers
38:07Conference or oculus connect who are
38:09finally like they will go out there and
38:11they will find an oculus rift and they
38:12will try it on and they will be sold the
38:14other thing is this a year that creators
38:16gonna figure out what exactly to do bits
38:18BR and you've already seen like a lot of
38:20progress in the film film and gaming
38:23community of like how to tell stories
38:24you know how to edit like kid music
38:28videos or games or like short film and I
38:31think we're just gonna see more of that
38:32and that's just another thing which is
38:33gonna convince people of the potential
38:35VR and figure out the medium alright so
38:38I can Kyle thanks a lot thanks thanks
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