00:00hello this is Benedict Evans and welcome
00:02to the a 16z podcast I'm here this
00:05afternoon with Steve Jenny from estimate
00:08and we're going to talk about location
00:10and maps and knowing why you are where
00:14your phone is and what your phone can do
00:16with that and all these kind of
00:17interesting things we were just chatting
00:19about this earlier I thought one of the
00:21interesting common strands across Google
00:23i/o and Apple's WWDC was kind of the
00:27death of the ten blue links and Google
00:30doing a bunch of stuff to try and get
00:32ahead of you trying to type a query into
00:34a search box and press GO with now on
00:37tap and all sorts of other stuff going
00:39on inside the Osun inside their services
00:41and apple doing this proactive thing
00:44again where the computer is trying to
00:46get ahead of you and work out what you
00:48might need it kind of reminds me of
00:50there's this old computer scientist
00:51saying that a computer should never ask
00:53a question they should be able to work
00:54out the answer to and we've got these
00:56pocket supercomputers with two dozen
00:58sensors that we're carrying around with
00:59us everywhere and Apple and Google
01:01amongst other people are trying to work
01:02out well what could you do when you've
01:04got that and what would that mean yeah
01:06anyway it's fascinating I think to some
01:08extent if you think about the phone the
01:10watch and these devices right it's it's
01:12not an extension of us as a human being
01:14so to some extent we think about this as
01:16like that it could become the first
01:18brain it could be something that it
01:20decides what's going on before you sort
01:22of tell it to and I think the predictive
01:24nature you know it you know I think we
01:27heard on stage at i/o that the phone
01:29could potentially tell you when you're
01:30hungry and you know when you're on your
01:31treadmill and which music you want to
01:32listen to and that's you know fairly
01:35provocative and of course the the you
01:38know the search intent and like killing
01:39the links is one thing but how does the
01:41phone understand what you're going to do
01:43how does it understand what you're gonna
01:44do when you're indoors is it really know
01:46you're in your kitchen is it because
01:47your toaster told it you know the hey
01:49you're in your kitchen and there's
01:51there's a bunch of different ways of
01:53Google and Apple are approaching this
01:54this fundamental problem and I think the
01:56same rules apply around you know device
01:59specific strengths for Apple and cloud
02:00specific strengths for Google but
02:02there's a missing link there where
02:04there's still no layer of context in
02:07physical you know indoor environments
02:09which is where we spend what 80 percent
02:12yeah it's actually said there's a sort
02:14of I mean you can see people groping
02:16towards it so Apple for example you will
02:18use some motion sensor to know that you
02:20don't have a signal but the phone hasn't
02:22moved since the last time you didn't
02:23have a signal said oh and go to full
02:24power and hunt for one and you know the
02:26phone is face down on the table so don't
02:27turn the screen on when you get a
02:28message and there's all these sort of
02:30little recipes that you kind of build up
02:33bit by bit by bit while there was kind
02:35of Windows and Mac OS built up all that
02:37kind of stuff over the last 30 years and
02:38it's now being added to the operating
02:40systems but there's a kind of to your
02:42point there's a layer of context around
02:44well precisely where is the phone
02:46precisely what are you doing which of
02:48course is what you know beacons are
02:50about and what on one end and what
02:53people now is about on the other hat on
02:55the other hand it's about you know like
02:57Apple and Google are both kind of
02:58climbing the mountain thing I'm probably
03:00saying too often but they're kind of
03:01climbing the mountain from the opposite
03:02side so on the one hand you have all of
03:05these sensors and you have these beacons
03:07which of course is what estimate does
03:08for working out exactly where an iPhone
03:11is and at the same time Google is using
03:13now to work out well exactly what would
03:16it be useful for us to say to you at
03:18this moment yeah I think what one way we
03:21you know that I think is a good frame is
03:23to look at like fine you know fine grain
03:25vs. rough grain context and something
03:28very provocative that actually isn't
03:30explained and talked about much which is
03:31very ironic non-ironic is my favorite
03:34word by the way so I'm going to try to
03:35weave that in one more time very non
03:37ironic but we're sitting in the valley
03:38and all this old heritage from the
03:40semiconductor stack and networking you
03:42know it's just right down the street
03:43from all these software companies but
03:45people don't talk about what's this
03:47other limitation at play right how is
03:50the network of all things so you have
03:51this strength with Apple you have these
03:53strengths at Google and of course Apple
03:55has a chip team but there's there's this
03:57thing called the physical layer and the
03:59internet stack which is effectively will
04:01the air interface how is how was your
04:03phone or how these devices communicating
04:04with each other and something really
04:06provocative to think about on the
04:08physical layer is that you know GPS is
04:10one in the sky you know X years ago call
04:13it xx largely because of you know under
04:17applications that didn't exist yet or
04:19utilizing them today but largely because
04:20of the government and although Moore's
04:23law has made progress every year and
04:25founded us and these amazing companies
04:27just producing these new chips that do
04:29twice as much with half the power twice
04:32the understanding and you know we'll
04:33just a shrink a device that can be a
04:35computer on your wrist the physical
04:38layer isn't getting any better
04:39penetrating signals through buildings so
04:41so you know GPS is enabled a car to come
04:45to your house in three minutes
04:46really amazing no one understood five
04:47years ago that a company like uber or
04:49lyft would exist today but in five years
04:53I can guarantee you that the phone will
04:55still not understand it's in the
04:56building because of a new GPS signal
04:58that can now penetrate walls it will not
05:00physically happen this is an interesting
05:01split here because of course pre 97 and
05:04in effect one of the things that buried
05:06rim and to a less extent Nokia was that
05:09people producing this stuff was super
05:11super focused on the radio network and
05:15the Apple one of the things that allowed
05:18Apple to disrupt everything was by
05:19saying no no no no no it's just a piece
05:21of wire and we ignore it completely we
05:23make zero effort to optimize bandwidth
05:25and you know you there's a kind of an
05:27overstatement but we just completely
05:29ignore that well that Qualcomm deal with
05:31that and what we can do is we're just
05:33going to proceed treat cellulite Wi-Fi
05:35and that completely drone of course that
05:37can be screwed up a tnt's network for
05:39about two years and it completely
05:40transformed what kind of experience you
05:42would build and you now see people
05:43trying to build applications in emerging
05:45markets we discover actually you can't
05:46act like that at all but I think part of
05:49that mentality is you know just don't
05:51think about what the cellular network
05:52can do because that's three years of
05:54conversations with some BD guy or a
05:55mobile operator don't think about any of
05:57the physical layer at all just kind of
05:59take what the take the GPS take the a
06:02GPS take cellular and the Wi-Fi and
06:04everything else and Apple will do that
06:06Google do that but then completely you
06:09know don't and don't try and do anything
06:10on top of that and you know the
06:12interesting thing about beacons is they
06:15give you this way of digging in and
06:18actually saying it's you know you can
06:20know exactly where the phone is inside
06:22the store inside the building on what
06:24would you do with that it's like the
06:28kind of the challenge is how do you get
06:29past the you know the old you walk past
06:33Starbucks and it gives you a free coupon
06:35story which we've been all been hearing
06:38yes and the answer was always no no just
06:40put a poster in the window that's gonna
06:41work much better yeah how do you get you
06:44know we've now got this kind of latent
06:45technology it's almost it's no now we've
06:47got GPS in the phones what do you do
06:49with that that ability to know where the
06:51phone is to within the nearest six
06:52inches of course I think with the iPhone
06:54making as much progress as it has in
06:56these eight years we can't fathom yet
06:57what it was like before in this you know
06:59when telecom carriers had had the power
07:02and you really had to go through this
07:04like probably seven filters they get an
07:06application on someone's phone I'd like
07:08to address that by rolling back actually
07:10like to something where in the 80s
07:11smartphone or today's platform but when
07:13pcs came about there's actually a really
07:15interesting analog about a developer
07:17centric approach and how you know as
07:19platforms evolve you can have power in
07:21the hands of a developer so this is an
07:23analogy that I'm in love with and it's
07:25sort of this it's a canvas right and
07:27it's like developing on top of a canvas
07:29and if you think about when Apple
07:31invented the mouse or I think was park
07:33but when the Macintosh had a mouse
07:35really what that meant is it meant that
07:37you moved your hand and wrist on a table
07:39and you didn't wear about the physics
07:41behind which way the mouse is moving but
07:43the cursor moved on the screen and as
07:46the cursor moved of course consumer apps
07:48could exist but if should flip that and
07:49think about from the developer
07:50perspective developers now could move
07:53the mouse and draw a region or you know
07:56click and select three cells hit a
07:59button and they would add so things like
08:02came about and other applications came
08:04about and that was powerful that was an
08:06amazing phase shift because in a very
08:09small period of time people were having
08:11personal computers on their desks that
08:12solved problems and I think in today's
08:15world there's an analog for that and the
08:17metaphor is it that it's the physical
08:19world you're walking around in this is
08:20the new canvas you're walking around
08:22with the smartphone which I think
08:24someone famously called a remote control
08:25for the physical world but if you flip
08:27that again think about it from the
08:29developer perspective it's a mouse
08:30cursor for the physical world and they
08:34can build apps on top of actions
08:36contacts venues things you're doing and
08:37so of course walking by this you know
08:40the Starbucks and the latte being you
08:41know made it a little bit of a it's a
08:44generic example that's been used even
08:45around things like beacons but actually
08:47the reality is you've made the decision
08:51ten minutes ahead of time so why doesn't
08:52your phone know that you've made that
08:54decision and a better question is there
08:56a way for your phone to understand that
08:58you made that decision is it that like
09:01mental telepathy with a bristan knows
09:02unlikely it's probably your phone
09:04predicting or are you taking one action
09:06and it talking to the coffee maker and
09:09in the limit of that just isn't you know
09:11the the cars now we're being
09:12intermediated you know probably will be
09:14driverless I would likely suggest that
09:16Starbucks would be like barista less in
09:18five years hmm yeah it's a kind of it's
09:24a question as you say about context that
09:26how what does it mean when you know
09:29where the device has gone and that not
09:34that it's to the nearest hundred yards
09:36but it's to the nearest five yards and
09:37you know you the example if that occurs
09:41to me is using the Foursquare glance on
09:43my Apple watch and suddenly it goes from
09:48something that you you know getting a
09:50tip on a restaurant from in Foursquare
09:51you haven't theoretically nothing has
09:54changed but actually it's the difference
09:56between taking your phone out of your
09:57pocket loading up the waiting for it to
09:59do XYZ and just looking at your wrist
10:01and it moves that you know in the same
10:06way you could say that you know for uber
10:07or lyft it doesn't actually need GPS you
10:10can just type your address in mm-hmm but
10:13actually just having the GPS transforms
10:15the kind of capability of doing those
10:18kinds of things and I think there's a
10:20lot of there's a lot of things that
10:23become possible when you remove friction
10:24yep and when you remove the difference
10:27between well yeah you why would you need
10:29why do you need Foursquare to have GPS
10:32why can't you just type in the name of
10:33the restaurant you're standing in front
10:34of that's only like 10 seconds what do
10:36you like lazy or something well yeah you
10:38could do but it's all about when you
10:41remove friction suddenly experiences go
10:43from being tedious to being kind of
10:45magical I mean you know you talk about
10:47the smartphone as a remote control I
10:49actually prefer the example of the
10:51smartphone or that these devices
10:52generically being superpowers mm-hmm
10:55that is to say so I was you know walking
10:58between tea meetings in New York City a
11:00couple of weeks ago and
11:02I used my smartphone tapped on where I
11:06was going then tap the walk button put
11:08the phone in my pocket pocket and looked
11:10at my wrist every time I got to a
11:11junction it said turn right go ahead
11:12listen to this on your last podcast app
11:14me on the wrist twice oh it's time to
11:16turn now and yes I can walk down the
11:18street holding the smartphone looking at
11:19the map we've all done that we've all
11:21been slightly afraid of someone was
11:22going to snatch it all that we're
11:24running the battery down you're gonna
11:25drop it and you just it's just kind of
11:26an awkward way of walking just like
11:28walking down the street holding a map
11:29you raise your wrist hook your watch
11:31suddenly everything changes and I
11:32suppose the point that I'm getting at is
11:33the what sensors do and what wearables
11:36do and what all of these technology
11:38that's kind of emerged just in the last
11:40year or two does is they take all the
11:41friction away yeah and so it's like
11:43there's a stuff that you could do using
11:46the old stuff but with the new stuff to
11:48friction goes and when the friction goes
11:49suddenly the gyro axis new exchanges and
11:52things that were possible become things
11:55that were possible but a pain become
11:57completely ordinary and you just do them
11:59all the time trying to percent anything
12:00it goes back to this fine grain so what
12:02what could happen if you know your
12:03device is really just understood much
12:05more than they do today and it's going
12:06down this path but every time we level
12:09set and we look at okay now we're in
12:112015 why there's a watch and it sort of
12:13understands and then a few months later
12:14there's this thing called compilations
12:17what is it called or the now the watch
12:19os2 has something that's a complications
12:20complications and so these new things
12:22come out and we're like we're level set
12:24again that this is the new normal but we
12:25should expect much more and as soon as
12:28this technologies that they're connected
12:30better and they're they're really just
12:32like in you know in sync with each other
12:33and of course we're talking about
12:35sensors on devices and sensors
12:37distributed in physical environments
12:38there's gonna be a 10x increase in the
12:41amount of you know how specific those
12:44actions can be predicted and I think it
12:47a lot of it is the best way to distill
12:49it down probably from my perspective
12:51from kind of thinking about approaching
12:53developers is can you just give the
12:56developer an x and y coordinate or is he
12:58his well and of course like you can do
13:01that outdoors you can do that roughly
13:03but that's all the developer wants it
13:05doesn't want to interpret a signal
13:07strength from the sensor or you know
13:11really like complicated mechanic that is
13:13exposed by the m8 sensor it just wants
13:17to understand and distill down can you
13:19just at this moment tell me and moreover
13:22computationally free not at a penalty
13:25bladder to battery life right which is
13:27the problem that a lot of companies
13:29whether it was you know moves or
13:31fourscore battled against with data
13:33science to try to keep your battery from
13:35dying as they predicted where you were
13:36but we're getting much better now and
13:38and and I think the reality is and that
13:42word is not there yet and there's no one
13:44really leading the charge both Apple and
13:45Google just barely mentioned anything at
13:47the respect to developer conferences
13:49about indoor location after so much so
13:52much hype I think there was a blue dot
13:53demo from Google and Apple had like one
13:57session on core location but didn't
13:59really talk too much about like the
14:01extensions they made in inside their in
14:04their indoor technologies and a lot of
14:06this comes down to it's just super
14:08challenging to calibrate an indoor venue
14:09well I think it is I think there's
14:11another strand here though which is when
14:13you look at things like where Google is
14:14taking now and where Apple is try to
14:16take context and you know that you know
14:23you now swipe left from the home screen
14:25to get to this context screen and it
14:28seems like a kind of a small UI change
14:30but that's there now you know that's
14:33where everything sensible will get
14:35interesting will get suggested to you in
14:37much exactly the same way as Google has
14:39now it said but now all you also swipe
14:41left on names being on Android so that
14:44oh gee Apple that's where Apple had the
14:45search screen back in iOS 6 but what I'm
14:49getting at is the challenge for this
14:51location stuff is and there's always
14:53been like there's been like this chicken
14:54and egg problem which is that the beacon
14:56was there but you had to have the app
14:58that knew what to do with those beacons
14:59and so that was great like if you went
15:01to you'll go to spend the day in the
15:03museum and you could install the museum
15:04app but if you went into a mall then you
15:07think ok I'm going to install an app for
15:09every store in the mall of course not
15:11only I'm going to install them all that
15:12no so what they're all these beacons
15:15that beacons actually do I mean it's a
15:17classic problem of you know that you are
15:19the most important thing in a
15:20corporations life that the corporation
15:22is not the most important thing in your
15:24want you to have the outfit that doesn't
15:25mean you want the app and so the thing
15:27what I'm getting at is as Google and
15:30Apple build up this metal layer of
15:32understanding and analysis around now on
15:34the one hand and Apple what Apple is
15:36calling Siri or they're calling it
15:37proactive they could have a got a
15:38they're going to rebrand all of this and
15:40repackage it again but the layer that
15:42watches you and make suggestions that's
15:46where that location stuff really starts
15:48surfacing back out because that's when
15:51it can turn around and say hey you know
15:54here is this useful piece of information
15:55and then you don't you get that's how
15:58you solve the binary problem of the app
16:00is installed or it's not installed
16:01because you've got this intermediate
16:02layer where content can show up that
16:06doesn't have to be the app I mean it's a
16:09little bit like as I was saying on the
16:10WWDC podcast yesterday it's a little bit
16:12like what Windows was trying to do what
16:14Windows Phone was trying to do with the
16:15homescreen we had this stuff appearing
16:17on the home screen you didn't have to
16:18understand have to open the apps but you
16:20still store source stuff but you had to
16:22have the apps installed obviously and I
16:24think more Google is poking around at
16:26and Apple are poking around out is well
16:28what useful stuff comes to you without
16:30the apps installed or without opening
16:33the apps and that kind of is a kind of a
16:37key lever into that kind of they're kind
16:39of micro granular context so you're
16:41talking about that you don't have to
16:43have the app it can still show you
16:44useful stuff 100 agree you know I look
16:48at the iOS revisions that have been just
16:51released in the last three or so six
16:52seven eight nine now we've seen a
16:54preview of it on they are converging on
16:56that right and it's subtle things first
16:58it's a few pixels in the bottom left of
17:00this hero icon where you open it up and
17:02it will thinks you're in Starbucks it
17:04opens that out I don't think there's a
17:06much uncertainty that the this skin in
17:08the UI will become much more it's
17:10sophisticated and predicting and I don't
17:12think there's much uncertainty that you
17:14know that sensors are a huge huge now
17:17advancement for the phone understanding
17:19like have you dropped it have you done
17:20this have you moved it you know should
17:21it turn the battery off and and so those
17:25two combined will probably actually be
17:28additive will there'll be a combination
17:30effect that gives a lot of power to to
17:33Apple actually as an integrated kind of
17:34ecosystem where they've they can just do
17:37with with the skin and they can also you
17:40know predict that the everyone you know
17:4285% of people have the latest OS and you
17:45know this many people have the latest
17:46model which has the exact same antenna
17:48and reflects signals the exact same and
17:50and you know they can approach it from a
17:53developer angle in a consistent way so
17:55the the he just hasn't happened yet and
17:59why are why are they teasing out such
18:01small small advancements to sort of
18:04surfacing like non app based UI from
18:06home screens and from other places is it
18:08just is it the same problem of you have
18:11to know what website you want to go to
18:12well I think there's two part there's
18:13two things that occur to me to seem to
18:15you one of them is that it's just a
18:20point I've made in the context of
18:22messaging apps is that the smartphone is
18:24a platform in a way that the PC was not
18:28and on the PC yes you could install all
18:31sorts of different internet connect to
18:32that but I knew Netscape was that way
18:35in reality the web browser with the
18:36platform yes not the operating system
18:39and say you had your windows or you've
18:41had your Mac and you had one icon which
18:43was the Internet and everything appeared
18:44within Netscape Navigator and that's
18:46very consistent for and everything
18:48happened inside that and so the Internet
18:50experience of the web browser a mouse in
18:51a keyboard and yes it was Spotify and
18:53Skype and what have you run yet yes but
18:54basically with a browser and the
18:55smartphone broke that apart and it moves
18:57the layer of the services layer when one
18:59level down in the stat you went to the
19:00operating system and so this is
19:02obviously the first impact of this is
19:03for messaging apps because you know you
19:05can see people's address book and you
19:08can send people push notifications so
19:09you can you know people don't have to
19:11keep visiting a website and everyone has
19:13it all the apps have easy access to your
19:14phone your phone directory your photos
19:16and so it became really easy to have
19:18five messaging apps where nobody would
19:20have used five different social networks
19:22on the web and because you'd have to you
19:24know you didn't have that platform layer
19:25and I think what we're seeing now is
19:26what other things does it do you do when
19:29the operating system itself is the
19:31internet platform and it's not just
19:33providing an address book and the photo
19:35library and push notifications domestic
19:36apps it's also about context and it's
19:39about watching everything that you do
19:40and seeing your meetings and seeing your
19:42diary and where you've been and where
19:44you are and store and watching you in
19:47effect which is why Apple of course is
19:49you've activity so much yeah go back to
19:51the sort of concept of indoor what does
19:52it mean when you're indoor and I think
19:54if we just assume that the that the
19:56phone now is just not you know anywhere
19:58near our first brain but it's going to
20:00converge on becoming much much more
20:01intelligent the actions and the things
20:04that that means for the consumer is you
20:05approach a sensor and you know
20:07deterministically 100% the phone or the
20:10watch understands that you have actually
20:12approached that area of your house that
20:15you haven't been in a certain amount of
20:16time that's a different signal for the
20:18phone to process what what you know
20:20should be that action if in that corner
20:21happens to be your dog wearing a sensor
20:24on his honest collar and you know the
20:27dog is thirsty and you haven't walked
20:29him and this long because the sensor
20:31knows it hasn't left the perimeter of
20:32the home that might be a value-add for
20:34the consumer it might be something that
20:36is amazing that they just like never
20:38understood that they you know really
20:39wanted or needed and it also obviates
20:42the need for humans to just create a
20:43list and to do all these things and
20:45store all this information in our head
20:47much as google obviated the need to just
20:50remember everything because you would go
20:51to a search bar and you would just find
20:53that information so I think we're really
20:55trying to come full circle on what these
20:57applications can do and they're gonna
20:59make humans much more intelligent and
21:01liberate us to probably go up and up the
21:03stack is it allowable to say other
21:06things I mean I think there's a there's
21:07an animal when you look at what's
21:09happening with all the companies that
21:10are bidding for Nokia's here maps at the
21:12moment the location in a sense is
21:14PageRank for the real world and pushing
21:17both understanding the maps and you say
21:19there's a story this morning that Apple
21:20has got its own fleet of cars driving
21:21every Street in the world just like
21:23Google did to build its own ground
21:24troops for maps at last spending some of
21:27that it's a 200 billion dollars there
21:29knowing where everything is right down
21:30to where is that piece of furniture
21:32where is that stand in a store knowing
21:35down to the inch where the phone is
21:36where you've been where you're going
21:38what you meet what might happen next
21:40completely transforms how you can tell
21:43people things how you can say useful
21:46hundra's they're storing a digital copy
21:47of the physical world in the cloud and I
21:49think the only question is what is each
21:50of those companies there'll be many more
21:52companies Facebook and other people
21:54relevant in that discussion but I think
21:56it's clear that Google has one intention
21:57on what to do with that and applause
21:59potentially quite a different one I
22:01okay well that's all we've got time for
22:02and that's kind of fascinating to think
22:04about it thanks a lot for coming in
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