00:00welcome to the a 16z podcast I'm Michael
00:03Copeland and we're here with Benedict
00:05Evans who is digesting three hours of
00:09Google i/o keynote and then some
00:12benedict welcome welcome
00:14so three hours long really yeah and
00:18people started making jokes at about the
00:20two-and-a-half hour mark am I suggesting
00:22whether they should get Peter Jackson to
00:24produce next year's sounds all right I
00:27mean what Apple does is they actually
00:29have two keynotes so they have the one
00:30that everyone knows about which is two
00:32hours and then they have something
00:33called State of the Union where they
00:34talk about all the really interesting
00:35technical stuff the other afternoon so
00:37Apple I she does do for hours as well
00:39because it's just say my stuff going on
00:41but Apple Cove you will kind of squeezed
00:42it all in and you know people started to
00:45go to sleep towards the end I think
00:47a three-hour ride or journey whatever it
00:50is yep so in that three hours what stood
00:54out for you let's sort of tick through
00:55some of those things and then dig a
00:57little deeper so I think there's a
01:00couple of observations here one is that
01:04it seemed like there was relatively
01:06little round Android and there's lots of
01:09nice incremental stuff but there weren't
01:10like major strategic moves or major
01:12tentpole features and more of the data
01:15discussion was around the what you might
01:18call the satellites so the wearable
01:21device the fitness the car the TV you
01:24know they announced the next version of
01:26Android I know blah blah blah blah I
01:28think the second thing that I thought
01:30was interesting was the move a sort of a
01:34shift in mood and so there's a pair
01:36piece here with with WWDC because
01:38obviously WWDC they've had Apple has had
01:41this regime change last year they
01:43redesigned the Oz it changed the whole
01:45management strategy this year they had
01:46like this enormous blizzard of
01:48announcements but one of the stuff that
01:51came through that was a they'd moved
01:53from a vertical to horizontal
01:54integration authorization so you have
01:57Craig federighi responsible for all the
01:59software for example and secondly there
02:01was a really big shift in MU they were
02:03much more relaxed so much more jokey all
02:05the announcements were about kind of
02:07openness and making life easy for
02:09developers rather than sort of imposing
02:10obligations on them so all the
02:12developers came out of
02:13WWDC thinking well this is a different
02:15Apple right and this year at i/o
02:19obviously again Google's had this change
02:20in personnel that now send up rolling
02:22those apps and Android and Chrome so
02:25they've got again they've got all all
02:27the future stuff under one person and
02:31previously Android was a total black box
02:34they gave you these random numbers every
02:36now and then that never quite reconciled
02:38with each other and they haven't given
02:39any statistics at all on Android in nine
02:41months and they haven't been they've
02:43never given any data on Google Play
02:44right only given out downloads but
02:47they've never given revenue data and
02:49this year they throw up a chart of
02:51annual monthly active users the active
02:55users say they just they said for the
02:56first time that there are now a billion
02:57active users of Google Android which
02:59doesn't count China and Kindle and does
03:01that square with coalesce with my model
03:04my model was like 1.1 or something so
03:09you know it's within the margin of error
03:10and it's probably there's not exactly 1
03:12billion anyway but the really
03:14interesting thing would say gave a
03:15number for revenue from Google Play
03:16mm-hmm all that they'd paid out 5
03:19billion dollars to developers in the
03:20last 12 months and 2 billion in the
03:22previous 12 months and just seven
03:24billion in two years yeah now but five
03:27billion in the last 12 months now Apple
03:28said in January that they'd paid out 7
03:31billion in 2013 and if you look at the
03:36revenue growth rate the run rate great
03:38wait that means that Apple probably paid
03:39out 10 billion in the last 12 months
03:40right and they're all as it might be 450
03:44million out if iOS device is on earth so
03:47Apple is doing double the developer
03:49revenue on half the number of devices
03:51explain that well I mean it's not
03:55actually very surprising at all in the
03:57first hand that's what everybody in the
03:59industry sees right all daily developer
04:01or any publisher with very few
04:02exceptions this is what everyone sees
04:04secondly I saw what all Apple put all of
04:06our portfolio companies see this the
04:08second thing is see they see that they
04:11like money from iOS this was a number I
04:13had in my head yesterday the day and
04:15revenue is is something like half of
04:17that the and we are poo is something
04:21like 1/4 of iOS RP right and there's a
04:23bunch of reasons for this and you can
04:25argue all day about the relative
04:26importance one reason is that Android
04:29tends to be having higher market share
04:30in low-income countries one is that it
04:33has an implemented payment necessarily
04:34very well a lot of those countries
04:36people don't have credit cards and
04:37Google hasn't implemented carrier
04:38billing yet another reason is that
04:41iPhones average $600 and Android phones
04:43seem to average about 250 to $300 so it
04:46may well be that people in America with
04:48the galaxy s5 are spending the same as
04:49people with iPhones so that is small
04:51percentage of the overall base you've
04:53just got an awful lot of people in there
04:54with hundred-dollar phones who don't
04:56have a credit card who are just swearing
04:57are screwing up the averages yeah
04:59another reason is you get a sort of
05:02self-fulfilling effect with developers
05:03that if developers feel there's no money
05:05on Android they'll either way to support
05:07it all that would come to a later or
05:08they'll come to it with a different
05:09business model that doesn't require in
05:10our purchase they might go with an
05:11ad-supported model instead of in-app
05:13purchase model so they're not giving
05:15people on Android the opportunity to
05:17spend as much mm-hmm and the flip side
05:19of that of course is that that then
05:21means that people who want that app or
05:23want it first or willing to pay a more
05:25likely to buy an Android because they
05:26can't get what they want and more likely
05:27to buy an iPhone because they go get by
05:29and in the first place so you get this
05:30kind of virtuous vicious circle of you
05:32know apps you know they're all the
05:34revenue kind of get sucked over to an -
05:35iPhone because of the interaction of
05:37developers and and so on um there's a
05:40final observation one could suggest that
05:41you know the kind of people who want to
05:43buy iPhone if you give them the choice
05:45of an iPhone and Android different
05:46people types of people will make a
05:47different choice and maybe the kinds of
05:49people who choose Apple's proposition
05:51and just more predisposed to spend money
05:53on apps and the kinds of people who
05:54choose Android right as you say may be
05:56iPhone users we do spend money more
05:57money the Galaxy S five years we don't
05:59know but however you cut this it means
06:01that I just kind of wrote a quick blog
06:03post on sort of benefits com
06:05it means that there's not so much market
06:07share as market shares mm-hmm explain
06:11that where are it depend so globally
06:13Apple sells 10% of all the phones on
06:16earth and Android sells 50 or 60% of all
06:18rare so mean apples called 15 or 20%
06:20share in Oakland good and but then in
06:24America it's more like 45 55 and in San
06:27Francisco it's more like 60 65
06:28phone and then in Detroit is more like
06:3060 65 percent Android and you know I do
06:33a little if you look at somewhere like
06:36if you look at really affluent areas
06:38it's really higher if you look at
06:40emerging markets and it's all Android
06:42except for very rich people who have
06:43iPhones but then those very rich people
06:45in Brazil Wren I've got all money
06:47telling me that you yet disproportionate
06:49share spending if you look at India or
06:52Indonesia or any of those kinds of
06:53markets it's all Blackberry and Nokia
06:54converting very quickly to iPhone
06:56conversely interestingly in China
06:58actually Apple has more like 20 or 30%
07:01share peers to have 20 or 30 percent
07:02share of usage all their much-loved
07:04notional sales of devices so you know
07:07where are you what kind of users are you
07:09trying to go for and then if Apple has
07:11two-thirds of all the revenues that is
07:12to say 10 billion versus five billion
07:14mm-hmm what are you trying to achieve
07:16are you trying to achieve massive global
07:18reach are you trying to convert monetize
07:20that's who advertising or your Amazon
07:22and you just want your app everywhere
07:23are you producing a beautifully
07:26handcrafted game that appeals to a small
07:28number of people and you want people to
07:31are you gilt group are you sure whatever
07:33so we know what exactly you trying to
07:35achieve and I think this is the you know
07:38the kind of one of the broader points
07:40here is this just we're just entering
07:41the world of systemic complexity they
07:43will you know you will not be as easy as
07:45it was on the web there will not be one
07:46platform right a lobby one winner
07:48at least not for the next couple of
07:50years foreseeable future anyway and he's
07:51going to have to get used to that I
07:52think changing check a little bit and
07:55well then we'll go on to on to all the
07:57bots little the satellite things there's
08:00something that I saw in WWC and sort of
08:02kind of expect you to see here and kind
08:04of actually kind of didn't see that much
08:10with that that you have this kind of
08:13divergence in in approach and philosophy
08:15um that's to say you know WWDC was full
08:19of cloud but it was all about cloud as
08:21back-end to rich native apps ray where
08:23was I Oh was all about cloud as cloud
08:26much more and it was all about the
08:29clever stuff that's going on in
08:30Chromebook and the clever stuff that's
08:32not on Google servers you know there was
08:33much much more of that last year and two
08:36of the things we didn't where we
08:37I'd like if hours and hours and hours
08:40about Google+ one of the amazing thing
08:45that Google+ was gonna do for you which
08:46always is a really interesting narrative
08:48massive volume of photographs and how
08:50who is better place to manage you know a
08:53thousand photographs a month Google with
08:55this amazing cloud service or Apple with
08:57this which native happen you can argue
08:58it both ways and you arguably Google
09:00she'll be able to do clever stuff but we
09:01didn't hear a word about any of that
09:03yeah so here Google+ mentioned except
09:05like I think there was once the one time
09:08I actually noticed Google+ being
09:09mentioned was one one of the product
09:11managers civil saying and another new
09:13feature with you can integrate this with
09:14Google+ and waited for the applause and
09:16there was just dead silence in the room
09:17the only applause line that just went
09:19completely hanging by then Google glass
09:21wasn't mentioned at all at all so how
09:24was so just Google Places leader he left
09:27young Google so the Google Places
09:29without you know a hero perhaps yes
09:32Google glass last year was everywhere I
09:35mean what do you make of these absences
09:37you know well you know what can you say
09:41the stuff that's not there because
09:42there's another event coming in a month
09:44and but Google has been incredibly class
09:46silent quiet on glass ran yes and you
09:49know the thing is really you know it's
09:51gone they were you know it's you know we
09:54don't we don't know maybe there'll be
09:55something will happen maybe won't but it
09:57really feels like it was out though it
09:58was a test it was a test didn't work but
10:00you know if you went the previous year
10:02so it was bars and there was wave and
10:03there all these other Google initiatives
10:05and went nowhere there was actually outs
10:06remember hangouts true and and Google's
10:08you know willing to take a flyer on
10:10these things right exactly I mean I
10:12think there's a macro point here that
10:13Google is any Microsoft and this is the
10:15thing that came out really strongly last
10:16year and indeed this year is the sort of
10:19self-confidence and the ambition to do
10:20absolutely everything to become the
10:22global computing platform to be the
10:23people who know computer science and
10:25will go and build right build stuff
10:27right there's bad reason for some life's
10:29way and then that kind of takes us on
10:33quite nicely to all of the devices yeah
10:36so what's that what was the course of
10:38the people were buzzing about all we had
10:39back there we had three things we had
10:42Android wear which has been more or less
10:44completely in our at special wall but
10:45we've got a full demo of it which is a
10:47platform for a SmartWatch
10:49and there's kind of two components to
10:51this one is it in wall street components
10:53one is equal out of the box it will
10:54display all the notifications from the
10:56apps on your phone without them have to
10:59be home to be adjusted at all on your fa
11:00obviously so you know you get Android
11:03notifications are quite you know
11:04sophisticated you can see content from
11:05the message you can get a yes or no
11:07which is what Apple also introduced is
11:09introducing an iOS 8 so you can look at
11:11your phone it has you've got an email
11:12you can say yes or no you can do turn by
11:15turn notifications you can use Google
11:17now you can do a bunch of stuff that
11:18dude did Google build this hardware
11:21themselves today this is a platform and
11:23they're showing three devices an LG and
11:25Samsung that are available like now-ish
11:28and then there's a Motorola one with a
11:30rather cool circular screen that's how
11:32it looks cool I sent my Eurasian your
11:33developer and so watch and you've got
11:35about an inch square of screen state and
11:38you've got no idea what size or shape
11:39the screen is going to be how the hell
11:41you supposed to optimize your design if
11:43you don't even know if the corners are
11:44going to be there or not so you've got
11:46optimize for a circular display even
11:48though it might be a square display so
11:49you've got it ignore whatever it is a
11:50third of the screen in this human might
11:52not be there very much but anyway the
11:54major 81 shipped in the summer that
11:56hardly do you want one so do I want it I
12:00had this funny feeling being reminded of
12:03the iPad demo and there was a moment in
12:06the iPad regional iPad demo when Steve
12:08Jobs were sitting in a Corbusier leather
12:11armchair on stage holding an iPad and he
12:15was just kind of browsing and saying so
12:16yeah so I'm just like I'm browsing the
12:19Internet and it felt for like his
12:21horrible moment it felt totally
12:23underwhelming browsing the internet dude
12:25there's nothing cool about that right
12:27which is what you know nine-tenths of
12:29people watching the event said it was
12:30just a big iPod touch it was a stupid
12:32um and so but my point is I was sitting
12:34watching the um watching the demo and
12:36I'm thinking yes so you just said you
12:38just thought your remote so that's like
12:40you're not very exciting at all right
12:42and I think somebody did a a mock-up of
12:45a they posted a photo of a mock-up of a
12:48SmartWatch where they just taken a pen
12:49and written you always have email on
12:51their wrist and then somebody else
12:54replied and they took pen and they wrote
12:57you should exercise more
12:59no wrist I don't need a watch it tells
13:01me to exercise more I'm Eric you know I
13:02grow it ready so you kind of look at it
13:05and you think is this like is this the
13:08iPod iPad mistake that you kind of
13:10looked at it and you didn't understand
13:12how much it changed things and you can
13:13have it in your hand and use it before
13:15you'll understand or is it a solution in
13:18search of a problem yeah you can
13:21certainly build a narrative that says
13:22well you shouldn't have to take your
13:24phone out of your pocket all the time
13:25and I think they they gave a statistic
13:28in the event of let me kind of check my
13:31notes the number of people who yeah
13:35Android for an average Android user
13:37check cellphone 120 times a day so
13:39that's 120 times that you wouldn't eight
13:41you don't have to take it okay but then
13:43I was looking at the interface and it
13:45reminded me a lot of my Palm Pilot 15
13:46years ago of the of how kind of painful
13:50it was to look at stuff that was
13:51squeezed on squeezed onto that screen
13:52even more reminded me of my feature
13:55phones like I had Alice Sony Ericsson
13:57wnat which is his fantastically
13:59beautiful piece of design I still like
14:02it's little milled slit of aluminium
14:03with this little color screen on it and
14:06it showed like five lines of text at a
14:08time and I was reading anything on it
14:10was incredibly painful and I'm looking
14:13at this guy reading his email on this
14:15tiny little screen and thinking this is
14:18a really crappy experience actually
14:20which comes back to the point about you
14:23know drawing on your wrist you know a
14:24device that tells you you have new email
14:26has zero value actually a device that
14:29tells you who you've got new ml form
14:30actually kind of has zero value it
14:33advice it lets you read that email two
14:35or two lines at a time or three lines at
14:37a time has zero value a device that
14:40gives you but then some of the things
14:42already cool you know something that
14:43gives you turn by turn navigation as
14:44you're walking somewhere so you don't
14:45you're not pulling out your phone and
14:47kind of walking down the street looking
14:48at your phone I turn left here do I turn
14:49right there right yeah some of these
14:51things are really valuable but it just
14:52feels like it's groping away for
14:55absolutely the right use case and we're
14:59so then you have cars and gold Auto yeah
15:02go Google Auto and this is again this
15:04isn't terribly new and indeed Apple has
15:07an equivalent product more fairly
15:09similar product and the the elemental
15:11concept here is you have a device that
15:13is replaced every 10 or 15 years made by
15:16a company that knows fundamentally
15:18nothing about software and you know
15:20on-screen user interfaces and you have a
15:22device that's got a rich touchscreen and
15:24software made by people who do
15:25understand the software has replaced
15:27every two years so where should the
15:28intelligence be right probably being the
15:30thing that's replaced every two years
15:31and so you should probably have all the
15:34clever stuff in the phone not in the car
15:36and that makes a lot of sense to me I
15:38mean all the other hand I can sort of
15:39see why it's quite nice to have GPS in
15:41your car without having to have a
15:42smartphone with you but you know you do
15:44have your smartphone with you everywhere
15:45so that's sort of their the challenges
15:48you know 10 you replacement cycles so
15:51it's not good at takeoff so you give the
15:53sensor like for example in my hoopty
15:55Volvo I will be able to upgrade to
15:57Google jato just because I think that's
16:00really I feel like generally you're
16:01gonna have to buy a new car right and at
16:03that point you feel like well why don't
16:05just get like a sucker and put your
16:06phone on the screen what you know stuff
16:11like you know data analysis and the song
16:13is more interesting but you can use
16:14dongles for that you know things like
16:15automatic and so on so yeah it's like
16:18it's interesting but it's not that
16:19interesting maybe it's just me but just
16:21because I don't have a car so but they
16:22did they did have house therefore they
16:24have a health thing which was quite
16:26vague but again it's an indication
16:27system for your health devices rather
16:28like apple's healthkit and again we'll
16:30see and then the final thing was the TV
16:33and this is just though this is a third
16:36TV third there was Google TV which was
16:39see most spectacular fiasco
16:41and then there was chromecast which is
16:43actually a really good product and has
16:45done well I mean they're selling
16:46millions of them much like the Apple TV
16:47it's like it's done well but only gone
16:51so far whereas to say P millions of
16:54people have got them not tens or
16:56hundreds of millions appear oh and you
16:59know like the PACU and the bloke who in
17:01the video in there and the Hoodoo and
17:02all these fees they all seem to have to
17:03use suitable names right um well
17:06amusingly this time last year just about
17:07three weeks before Google i/o I wrote a
17:09blog post saying that I thought the next
17:11Apple TV would be a fifty dollar HDMI
17:14you were wrong I was thirty-five dollars
17:19one of the guys on the chrome cars team
17:21and they said we looked at I looked at
17:22that little hooli to him it hadn't even
17:24remotely occurred many of this is Google
17:25would do this so I did kind of miss part
17:27of it anyway um there's no prizes for
17:29being right in this kind of world so
17:31anyway so the chromecast is there the
17:33chromecast is doing well the chromecast
17:35has got bump there's a bunch of api's to
17:36make your light do all the stuff that
17:37you've had the first time around that
17:39they ran time to do like now you can now
17:41mirror your entire phone you can mirror
17:44any app onto chromecast and there's a
17:46bunch of other things like that which
17:47are sensible enough Google TV so I
17:50should stop playing with my iPhone case
17:52Google TV well there were two basic
17:56problems with a lot with with the first
17:58Google TV the first was he kind of
17:59presumed you want to use a QWERTY
18:01keyboard to navigate and a Mousterian to
18:02write with your screen it was basically
18:04Android plugged into your not into your
18:06TV screen it was Edward 4 people phone
18:08plugged into a TV screen and that was
18:10just a terrible experience and Sony made
18:12this kind of bizarre I handheld QWERTY
18:14keyboard was just alright a logitech
18:16guardian on it yeah a lot lost an
18:18enormous amount of money millions of
18:20dollars working off of inventory so that
18:23was the first problem and so Google have
18:25now got a thing which actually has an
18:26interface that like make sense 10 feet
18:28away and is controlled from your phone
18:29so they don't kind of solve that the
18:31second problem was one of two problems
18:35or three problems where 0 it's really
18:36cheap problems and so they've come up
18:39with the story around games in the story
18:41around having Google Play and having
18:42movies so it's basically just like we
18:44get an Apple TV or Hulu or Vudu box or
18:47ready box or whatever it is it's fine
18:49these things a kind of commodity at this
18:51point but the problem with all of these
18:53things as a problem of the Kindle Fire
18:54with the Apple TV all of this stuff is
18:58that they all don't have the same
19:00content that is to say they all have
19:02marginally interesting content and stuff
19:05that isn't the stuff you absolutely have
19:07to have right they don't have a arm and
19:10to the extent that they do you only have
19:13it if you're a cable subscriber anyway
19:14so you probably got it so you can have
19:17HBO on your Apple TV but only if you
19:19already signed up this pay Comcast $150
19:21a month right and the fantasy that
19:23everybody has is that they could just
19:25take home cost $30 a month and not have
19:26to put and then pay their $50 comment
19:29and have an aliquot product and of
19:30course the nobody absolutely
19:32in the entirety of the TV industry has
19:34any interest at all in letting you do
19:35that right that's to say everybody hates
19:37the structure of the u.s. cable and US
19:39TV industry except the u.s. TV industry
19:41who kind of perfectly happy with it
19:42right so so you look at this thing and
19:46then it's kind of my kind of standard
19:48narrative around all these devices is
19:51you look at this thing and it's a
19:52beautiful thing in a beautiful interface
19:54that you switch your waveform to get
19:55your cable box you can watch the stuff
19:57you want to watch to be clear what they
20:00were there described today or unveiled
20:03if that's the right word it was just the
20:06platform yeah it's an awesome
20:08partnership so the TV companies yeah and
20:11the comment that they made on stage
20:13which is exactly the same comment that
20:14they made when they launched original
20:15one is something along the lines of it's
20:17fantastic we've got all these parts of
20:18the TV system involved they have no
20:20television companies involved right now
20:22so they have nobody who makes anything
20:24you want to watch anymore than very
20:26proliferate peripherally involved in
20:27this now that's not quite true so
20:29they've got they've mentioned
20:30partnerships with a couple of the IPTV
20:32cable television providers in France so
20:35I think SFR would week who have quite
20:37substantial pay TV a TV operations are
20:41going to use this but you know there's
20:43no Comcast there's no ABC there's no box
20:46there's no HBO you know there's not
20:48there's no there's no you will not this
20:51will not change your experience watching
20:53madman and this won't change your Google
20:56TV experience dramatically unless
20:58perhaps you live in France it sounds
21:00like yeah exactly of you live in France
21:02or the UK if you live anywhere that
21:03doesn't have this very unique right um
21:05market structure where everybody has
21:07cable everybody pays a huge amount of
21:09money I have to pay a huge amount of
21:11money to get anything at all that you
21:12want to watch nowhere else in the world
21:14or vote nowhere else in the world that I
21:16can think of off the top of my head has
21:17that market structure right um so you
21:19know in the UK you know the BBC makes a
21:21little bit stuff available for free
21:22online on any device and so do all the
21:24other TV channels and if you're a sky
21:25subscriber which is half the population
21:28more or less then yeah you can have this
21:29guy have these apps and you can put them
21:31on any device and you know do whatever
21:32you want with it so it's really only the
21:34us that you have this totally locked up
21:35gridlocked system and so this is kind of
21:40the point that if you were to say to me
21:41I'm going to disrupt the mobile business
21:43with what spectrum and if you have no
21:45answer to that then I'm not interested
21:46and the same in the same sense if you
21:48say to me I'm gonna disrupt the TV
21:49business then I will say well we've all
21:51content rise going to make content
21:53available to you on your platform and
21:55until you can answer that question
21:58you are basically poking around in the
22:01Netflix Amazon Prime Blockbuster reruns
22:06and movie second one you know you're
22:08pushed out down the exploitation chain
22:10the industry term for it you can't use
22:13this beautiful new interface instead of
22:15your cable boxes interface to watch last
22:18night's episode of girls last night's
22:20episode of or whatever it is so there's
22:21that kind of block it's like it's great
22:24but right and so that was it so we
22:29talked about watches and cars and so did
22:32you as you you know WWDC was a couple
22:35weeks ago I was going on for the next
22:38couple days but you know most of what
22:40we're gonna hear about and see is was
22:42announced today does it change your view
22:45of the world visa vie those two
22:47companies Apple and Google do you have
22:49any sense of momentum a little thing to
22:53talk about him which i think is very
22:54interesting which is if you look at all
22:58of the stuff that they did in Android a
23:03lot of it is about blowing the lines
23:06between what an app is and what a
23:08website is mm-hm and how you move
23:11between the two and then like two hours
23:15later they tell you that you will now be
23:17able to run Android apps on your
23:19Chromebook which on one level is
23:23completely surreal you know it's like
23:25why would you buy particularly like the
23:27Chromebook pixel that joke was you could
23:29buy a MacBook Pro that for less money
23:31that runs chrome and all the other out
23:35why geekier like if $300 chrome it makes
23:39sense a Chromebook pixel made no sense
23:41at all and said okay say now you can buy
23:43a device that we run as chrome and like
23:46apps are designed to be run on smart
23:48phones like why would you not just like
23:50buy why when you buy Windows or Mac
23:52right and you just all Chrome on it
23:54would that make more sense and but
23:57that's like the obvious example the more
23:58interesting reaction is to say okay so
24:01we're running it davic / what's a new
24:06runtime art I can't member you're
24:08running Android native apps right inside
24:11the chrome platform and you're showing
24:15it to me on a laptop and you've also
24:19shown me whole set of technologies for
24:22breaking apart the differences between
24:24apps and web pages letting you link
24:27between the two what do we think and
24:30what is going to be in five years time
24:32what software do we think is going to be
24:34running on that device what is he gonna
24:38mean to say an out versus a web page how
24:41much of those different different
24:43differentiation is going to get broken
24:44apart especially with another five years
24:46of Moore's law changing a lot of these
24:48kind of performance questions because
24:50you know right now you probably couldn't
24:51you probably couldn't do that Android
24:53app within Chrome on a smart phone ship
24:54today right but in five years time so I
24:57think that's the the kind of strategic
25:01pointer where are you going to take what
25:05it means to say I installed an app where
25:09do you address that kind of binary
25:11problem of is the app there or not do
25:14you you run it again how do you get
25:16people to run the app that they
25:17installed a month ago and I've forgotten
25:18about all of this sort of this kind of
25:21berlin wall that you have between the
25:23web and native code is fading away right
25:26and you saw this completely the other
25:28way from Apple where they're breaking
25:30apart the app into notifications and
25:32keyboards and extensions obvious you've
25:34had keyboards and actionable
25:36notifications as an Android for a while
25:38extensions you haven't had an Android
25:40you have intense for that intensity for
25:42me um but so you've got people poking
25:44away it's like they're not done yet
25:47there's quite you know they've spent the
25:49last six or seven years going from the
25:52original iPhone and adding all the stuff
25:54that kind of needs to be there both
25:57Apple and Android and now it's like okay
25:59what are we even in the next seven years
26:01and that's going in very very different
26:04I rec mean you I've heard you talk about
26:05this before where you you say that the
26:08and complexity and you know sheer beauty
26:12of the mobile world far outstrips that
26:14of sort of the browser-based about
26:16beauty I just think there's this that
26:20what the smartphone did was unbundle the
26:23internet from the web amongst many other
26:26things and it you know it bundled up
26:28lots of physical devices like cameras
26:29and music players and so on into one
26:31device um but in software in kind of
26:33internet terms everything was in the web
26:34right and now everything is in two or
26:37three or four dozen different apps and
26:39then you've got we champ balancing
26:40everything up into an app again so it's
26:42kind of Turtles all the way down like
26:43WeChat is like this is the solution to
26:45having lots of silences we've I love
26:48again lots of put lots of little tiny
26:50teeny tiny solids inside it which I'm
26:52not sure how much sense since that makes
26:53that outside of China but then you have
26:57this kind of moving target because as
27:00Apple and Google sit and iterate and
27:03drive that experience forward what can
27:05we do that will make this better what
27:08can we do that will make this work well
27:09for users and the answer is not well
27:12we'll delete the app store and we'll
27:14like remove the ability to run native
27:16code and we'll turn it back into a web
27:18browser right that's this is sort of
27:21bizarre fantasy that somehow everything
27:22will go back to being HTML and links
27:25writing the URLs and that will be like
27:27the kind of the three pillars of the
27:28internet again which is aware was before
27:30it's like we are going we've had this
27:33massive unbundling and that bundling is
27:34getting more and more complex and
27:36sophisticated and it's all gonna get
27:38bundled back up again at some point in
27:40some way in like five years
27:42well Benedict um I was gonna ask you
27:44about England's pathetic performance in
27:45the World Cup but the future of what
27:54what our experience in mobile and the
27:56internet will look like so we appreciate
27:58that and there will be more where this
28:01came from as you are gonna have to watch
28:04the whole thing again at least like once
28:05and maybe twice because it was the same
28:07thing you had after WWDC I think we did
28:09the podcast and it's like I didn't even
28:11mention cloud drive or something I would
28:13actually have to sit and look at the UM
28:14the notes is there other stuff that I
28:16haven't mentioned that they announced
28:18you know the updated chromecast is Apple
28:22all chose as Android where there's a
28:24developer preview of the note so yeah I
28:25said well he was so I didn't mention
28:27Android one say there is now a reference
28:29platform to do cheap hundred dollar
28:31phones that retains a much greater
28:33degree of Google control so a minimum
28:35hardware requirement at under but not
28:38under $100 retail keeping all the
28:41software up to date and then we're like
28:42where does this wait I mean I thought we
28:43had that already for where does this
28:45sharp edge go when I want a Google
28:48control the other thing that I think I
28:50mean I'll just I'll just throw this in
28:51as another another sidebar and then we
28:55should kind of go the other thing that I
28:57thought was very interesting is the
29:00Android fragmentation conversation and
29:01Apple really likes to talk about this
29:04for obvious reasons right halves you
29:05know they control the platform so they
29:07don't they don't have a software
29:08fragmentation problem for practical
29:10purposes a little bit of hardware
29:11recommendation but not really and they
29:16also talked about malware and sundar was
29:18very explicitly taking on those two
29:20points and I think with some justice so
29:22and there's two pieces to this the first
29:25is that google has moved all of its own
29:28api's or a lot of its own stuff out of
29:31and I use that in a deliberately vague
29:33anon technical sense they've moved a lot
29:36of their stuff out of the firmware that
29:38where you were dependent on your OEM and
29:40your mobile operator to put something
29:42together and they generally didn't
29:43bother because it well they didn't
29:44bother they weren't able to do it for a
29:46whole bunch of perfectly legitimate
29:47reasons generally so you had your phone
29:48your phone every but I paid it off you
29:50bought it right that's all been moved
29:51into a software layer that lives in grew
29:53in in the App Store and they can get
29:55updated automatically over-the-air
29:57oh that's great well that's good news
29:58for and tumors and so this is called
30:03Google Play services Google Play
30:04services ships a new version every six
30:06weeks 93% of the devices that are
30:08hitting Google Play or on the latest
30:10version so effectively 93% of the
30:12devices that are being actively used and
30:14going online I'll have the latest
30:16version of Google Play services and
30:18Google have started putting all their
30:20bug fixes into that so they're
30:21heartbleed fix all of this stuff goes
30:22into that so from one perspective the
30:26fragmentation problem the software and
30:28the operating system fragmentation
30:29problem is kind of much less important
30:33people still like to talk about it
30:35kind of overstate it I think and
30:37particularly for Google's perspective
30:38they roll out some cool new thing it's
30:41on every Android phone right they don't
30:42have to wait for you to buy a new phone
30:44in 18 months time with a new version on
30:46it so their new service and new Maps API
30:48then new this all our cloud service API
30:50whatever it is that they want developers
30:51to use will be on everything it's done
30:54however you have got a range of devices
31:00out there selling from anything from $50
31:02to $600 rent and so you've got different
31:05Hardware out there yeah another very
31:07different hardware out there and some
31:09stuff will just not run on some of these
31:11things I've seen data suggesting that
31:13the number of blue Joe of Android
31:14devices that have Bluetooth early in
31:16Southeast Asia is about 25% so that's
31:20the thing one of Apple's tentpole
31:21features i beacon will not work on sweet
31:23quarters the Android phones in Southeast
31:24Asia it's just not hot it just isn't
31:26there to do it and when you then talk to
31:30you Game Developers you talk to people
31:32who've tried to build video apps
31:34anything that actually needs to talk to
31:36device drivers and expect some kind of
31:38resistant response like what is the
31:41camera aperture please mm-hmm and you
31:43get a different response on two
31:44different sounds two different version
31:46on on to Samsung Galaxy s5s it was all
31:48in different countries right and say the
31:52hardware fragmentation both because of
31:54function of the price but just you know
31:55in general is still really significant
31:59and so therefore you could say that a
32:03Google that Android fragmentation is
32:07i overstated and massively understated
32:10depending on what you're trying to do
32:12but show you if you want to Google now
32:14or you're building an app that uses the
32:16latest Android Maps API there is
32:18effectively but almost no fragmentation
32:20if you want to make a cool video chat
32:22app you've got a really serious problem
32:23right grant work consistently across
32:26Android devices it will take you twice
32:27as long with three times as long as me
32:29as it did to cater tonight but maybe you
32:32don't care because you're just shooting
32:33for that whatever top third that will
32:35but this comes back to your um to that
32:39revenue number exactly
32:40so here you are with it's a total pot of
32:45money to go for on Android is half what
32:49you have to get four times the users on
32:53Android to get the same RP
32:54you get on iOS and you have development
32:57costs that depending on what you're
32:59trying to do or either the same or two
33:01or three or four times bigger well we
33:04will unravel this further as you get
33:06into it more and as always thank you
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