00:00hi everyone welcome to the a6 India
00:02podcast I am sonal and we're very
00:04honored today to have as our special
00:05guest Yuval her Ari who teaches at the
00:07Department of History in the University
00:09of Jerusalem and specializes in macro
00:11history and the relationship between
00:13history and biology he's the author of
00:15sapiens which is a mind-boggling Lee
00:17good book and now has a new book just
00:19out homo Deus did every onset but you
00:26can say Holmwood use I say the really
00:29bad like non accent that by the way was
00:35Kyle's voice who's also joining us on
00:37this podcast he's on the deal and
00:38investing team and covered a lot of the
00:39technology like drones AI and a bunch of
00:42other stuff so just to get things
00:43started we talk a lot about innovation
00:45and technology and I've always wondered
00:47what's the simplest definition of
00:49technology and innovation and reading
00:50your book sapiens in particular and then
00:52in home latias the thing that really
00:54struck me is that technology is the
00:56greatest accelerator humankind in fact
00:59our entire of all the species on earth
01:01has ever seen because it allowed us to
01:03essentially bypass evolutionary
01:06adaptations where we could become
01:07seafarers without having to grow gills
01:09like a fish for example and so that is
01:11an incredibly powerful idea but that's
01:13non directional and given that your new
01:15book and your work essentially the first
01:17phase was talking about its organic
01:19history of our species and your new book
01:21is shifting to a more in organic version
01:23I'd like to hear you what drove that
01:24ship well I think that so far for
01:26thousands of years humans have been
01:29focusing on changing the world outside
01:33and now we are shifting our focus to
01:36changing the world inside us we have
01:39learned how to control forests and
01:42rivers and other animals in whatever but
01:45with very little control over what's
01:47happening inside us over the body over
01:49the brain over the mind we could stop
01:52the course of a river but we could not
01:54stop the body from getting old if a
01:57mosquito annoyed us we could kill the
01:59mosquito but if a thought annoys us we
02:02don't know what to do about it now we
02:04are turning our innovative gaze inwards
02:08I think the main products of the 21st
02:11century will be bodies and brain
02:13and minds we are learning how to produce
02:16them and as part of that we may also for
02:19the first time not only in history for
02:21the first time in in evolution the
02:23evolution of life we may learn how to
02:25produce non-organic life forms so after
02:30four billion years of evolution of
02:33organic life forms we are really on the
02:36verge of creating the first inorganic
02:39life forms and if this happens it's the
02:42greatest revolution in the history of
02:44life since the very beginning of life
02:46you know what do you mean by in organic
02:48life forms cuz in your book you draw a
02:49distinction between biological cyborg
02:51and non organic are we gonna be like
02:54living in a network is that our identity
02:55then is that who we are like what do you
02:57see it could be something that exists
03:00only in cyberspace I mean a lot of talk
03:02about uploading consciousness into
03:04computers or creating consciousness in
03:06computers it could be life forms in the
03:10outside world but which are not based on
03:12organic compounds it can go in any of
03:15these ways but the essential thing is
03:17it's no longer limited by organic
03:21biochemistry evolutionary psychologists
03:23biologists talk a lot about our hands
03:25and the formation of her hands as tools
03:27one thing that's happened to me
03:28anecdotally is as I use my mobile phone
03:30more and more my hands muscles have
03:33literally atrophied to some extent like
03:34I know I know this because I started
03:36taking notes again instead of on my
03:37phone to be polite in meetings and my
03:39handwriting is literally I used to win
03:41awards for handwriting and now it's like
03:43industry it's like chicken scratch but
03:44it's much more extreme because for four
03:47billion years all part of an organism
03:49had to be literally in the same place
03:52for the organism to funk right like
03:55physically Kolok I mean if you have an
03:58elephant the legs of the elephant must
04:00be connected to the body of the elephant
04:02if you detach the legs from the elephant
04:04it dies or it can walk now is in organic
04:07life there is absolutely no reason why
04:10all parts of the life form must be at
04:14the same place at the same time that's
04:16my I can have you know it can be
04:17dispersed over space
04:19he's something that for four billion
04:21years was in was unthinkable and it's
04:24just around the corner or essentially
04:27selves into the cloud online social
04:29networks in the World Wide Web that's
04:32actually replacing writing as a major
04:34artifact that's our new collective
04:36history one of the consequences of that
04:38is it changes the dynamics of what
04:41becomes real and not real and it reminds
04:43me of this famous story from Ray
04:45Bradbury called the veldt which
04:47basically is this story where there's a
04:49virtual world that these two kids sort
04:52of enter and they end up killing and you
04:55ask a similar question in the book you
04:57give the anecdote of Jorge Bohr hisses a
05:00short story a problem and the story of
05:04Don Quixote sort of is this blending of
05:06delusion and reality mm-hmm the question
05:09is what happens when our illusions
05:11collide with reality yeah and with
05:14humans and human history you see more
05:17and more that our fictions and illusions
05:20are more powerful becoming more and more
05:23powerful less I mean say fake news this
05:25is a big debate that's playing out right
05:26now in the United States you know we use
05:28movies all this idea of the age of post
05:31truth I would like to know when was the
05:34age of truth I mean as far back in
05:44what kept humans together in society is
05:47belief in shared illusions magic
05:50fictions realities or imagined realities
05:53like that when you swear the US
05:55president to office he swears on the
05:57copy of the Bible and even when people
05:58testify in court I swear to tell the
06:01truth the whole truth and nothing but
06:03the truth they swear on the Bible is so
06:06full of fictions and myths and error
06:09it's like you can slow in Harry Potter
06:10just just the same some people do some
06:12people do we need for thousands of years
06:16human society have been built on shared
06:19fictions ensured illusions and there is
06:22nothing new about that it's just a twist
06:25technology actually our fictions and
06:28illusions become more powerful than ever
06:30before invisible to I think one another
06:32one of the illusions that you talk about
06:35being broken down by the advancements in
06:37science and technology is the illusion
06:39that we're all individuals free
06:41get some capitalism this idea that
06:42there's like a bunch of products that
06:44appeal to you as an individual and they
06:45try to put those individuals into
06:47buckets and market towards them yeah and
06:49actually turns out that scientific
06:51breakthrough show that actually there
06:53isn't just this kind of one individual
06:55you that accumulates through all of your
06:56experiences your brain is just kind of
06:58spitting out a lot of things maybe it's
07:00deterministic maybe it's random maybe
07:02it's probabilistic but you don't
07:03necessarily have control over that and
07:05so if you don't have control over the
07:07desires that your brain is spitting at
07:08the random thoughts how much of any of
07:10that is actually you and so what are the
07:13implications of that I think what we are
07:15seeing is the potential breakup of the
07:18self of the individual the very word
07:21individual means literally something
07:23that cannot be divided in division
07:25divisible and it goes back to the idea
07:28that yes I have all kinds of you know
07:30external influences and my neighbors and
07:32my parents and so forth but deep down
07:34there is a single indivisible self which
07:38is my authentic identity and the way to
07:42make decisions in life is just forget
07:45about all these external disturbances
07:47and try to listen to yourself try to
07:50connect to yourself and the idea is you
07:52just need to do whatever this inner
07:54voice tells you to do but science now
07:57tells us that when you look inside you
08:00don't find any single authentic self you
08:03find a cacophony of different
08:07conflicting voices well none of which is
08:11there is just no such thing and if in
08:15the 20th century the big fear for
08:18individualism was that the individual
08:21will be crushed from outside and now the
08:24threat comes from the opposite direction
08:26the individual will break up from inside
08:29and then the entire structure of
08:34individualism and democracy in free
08:37market it all collapses with the
08:40individual it all collapses with the
08:42self or just one alternative possibility
08:45because this is actually what struck me
08:46most when reading sapiens and then
08:48reading homo do is afterward is that
08:51big theme of sapiens was this great
08:53unification of humankind and being able
08:57to collect people into empires
08:59nation-states outside of these sort of
09:01hunter-gatherer tribes and now when I
09:04look at what's happening because of this
09:05mass coordination online you're now
09:08seeing this return to tribalism in some
09:11ways I would I would argue well that's
09:13like what the value of shared illusions
09:15are whether it's religion or the idea
09:17that we we've got this free market
09:19system but some safety net to keep it
09:21all functioning and keeping anyone from
09:23being exploited the point of having that
09:25shared ideology or that shared illusion
09:27is you have to pretend that we all care
09:29about the same thing that we're all
09:30coordinated because of the Internet you
09:32can actually identify what the same
09:35thing is at a very micro targeted niche
09:37level in a way that was unprecedented no
09:40longer where you were born
09:41to your point physically located it
09:42could be now your political beliefs it
09:44could be your belief about you know if
09:47you're a fan of Harry Potter are you
09:48Slytherin orphaned or like it could be
09:50any of those things and people collect
09:52and you tried and I find that
09:53fascinating because you do see it sort
09:54of this return to the past not in a
09:56pastoral way but you're seeing this
09:58coming full circle like you know the
10:00Industrial Revolution created
10:00adolescence are we gonna go back to a
10:02world where you don't need adolescence
10:03again you needed banking credit are we
10:05gonna go back to a world where because
10:07of online algorithms and new information
10:08sources you don't need that version of a
10:11credit score you can go back to this
10:12trusted personal manager who essentially
10:14knows what he needs to know in order to
10:16invest in you as as a risk so I was
10:18wondering this context if this is
10:19another thing to think about not just at
10:21an individual level but sort of a return
10:23to tribalism especially lately the
10:24present stage of phone'll nationalism or
10:27tribalism I think it's just a phase
10:30it's a backlash against globalization
10:31and the main problem it doesn't have any
10:36solutions to the deep problems of the
10:40all the major problems of humankind in
10:42the 21st century are global in nature
10:44its climate change in global warming its
10:47global inequality and above all its
10:50technological disruption I mean the
10:52implication of the rise of AI and
10:55bioengineering and so forth you cannot
10:57solve any of these problems on the
10:59national level the nation is simply the
11:01wrong framework for that and therefore I
11:05nationalism really has relevant answers
11:09to the problems we are we now face so I
11:14don't think that that nationalism is our
11:16future I think looking further to the
11:19future what we will see with regard to
11:22the individual is that at a certain
11:25point external entities whether it's
11:29corporations or whether it's governments
11:31they will have enough data especially
11:34biometric data and enough computing
11:37power to be able to understand me better
11:40than I understand myself very soon
11:43Facebook or the Chinese government will
11:46be able to do that and once you have an
11:49external entity an algorithm that knows
11:52me better than I know myself this is the
11:56real turning point this is the point
11:58when individualism as we've known it
12:01doesn't make any sense when democracy in
12:05the free market become completely
12:07and we need fundamentally different
12:11models for running the world and for
12:15understanding what's happening right for
12:17now several hundred years the market as
12:20a mechanism for saying what our opinions
12:23our voices our desires really are has
12:26been the most efficient mechanism we
12:28could best allocate production towards
12:30things that people find valuable because
12:32they're voting with their dollars yes
12:33but if you can accurately say based on
12:36this person's heart rate what they're
12:38paying attention to how they react to
12:40particular inputs you know whether it's
12:42an advertisement or some like new way of
12:44interacting with things based on new
12:45technologies like VR you could know like
12:48the closest thing to the underlying
12:50motivation and desire even better than
12:52the person themselves maybe would but at
12:55the other side of it there's an example
12:57you give and this goes back to the topic
13:00of like freewill and individualism lab
13:02rats that have electrodes hooked up to
13:03the reward centers of their brain where
13:06you have them navigate a maze or climb
13:08ladders and go down in little chutes by
13:11basically stimulating the reward center
13:12and it basically influences that rat's
13:15desire it doesn't feel like it's being
13:18doing that activity it's like the idea
13:21of climbing this ladder right now this
13:23the rat-race and so what's interesting
13:24is markets as efficient as they are like
13:27part of how they worked was this idea of
13:29like marketing to like instill desires
13:32car ads giving you this vision of being
13:34on the open road and free and wind
13:35blowing in your hair and then at some
13:37point the desire pops up at a time when
13:39you can act on it you buy a car whereas
13:40the future state that you describe is
13:42imagine you had a headset that was like
13:44a miniaturized fMRI that can detect
13:46exactly where the parts of your brain
13:48would need to be stimulated to make you
13:49really want to play the piano right now
13:52so that you'll be motivated
13:53intrinsically to learn it you could
13:55basically like sell the idea of being
13:57into this and so being able to read your
14:00desires but also being able to shape
14:03your desires what do you think the
14:04interaction of those two look like we
14:07don't know I mean that the basic
14:08tendency is to think in 20th century
14:11yeah that they'll try to manipulate us
14:13right and this is certainly a danger but
14:16intellectually still it's the last
14:18interesting option that okay that
14:20they'll use it to advertise in a
14:22different way to shape our desires
14:25without even our knowing it which
14:26they've been trying to do for four
14:29decades so they'll have better tools of
14:31shaping our desires the deeper and more
14:33interesting question is what if Big
14:36Brother can really do a better job than
14:39the individual in understanding what the
14:42what what you want and what you need
14:44because many people discover during
14:46their life that they don't really know
14:48what they want and they often make
14:50terrible decisions in the most important
14:52decisions of their lives what to study
14:55were to work a home today tuned to marry
14:58what happens if you have an external
15:01entity that makes these decisions for
15:04you better than you can it starts with
15:06very simple things like choosing which
15:08book to buy if the Amazon algorithm
15:11really picks books that you are very
15:14happy with then you'll gradually shift
15:16the authority to choose your the books
15:18to to Amazon and this may happen with
15:21more and more fields in your life and
15:24the really interesting question is not
15:26if they try to manipulate you the really
15:29interesting question what if
15:31it works that's such an interesting
15:33question what does it mean to being a
15:36human to being a human being when all
15:39the decisions in your life are taken by
15:42somebody else who really knows who you
15:44are it's like being a baby forever it's
15:47already working on some level because
15:48you might have a million other movies
15:50out there but you really don't care
15:51because you only care about what's in
15:53the Netflix catalog because you're
15:54looking for convenience of being able to
15:56binge watch and get it on demand in the
15:58moment so it's already reshaping that
16:00cultural landscape I mean it's already
16:01happening in some extent I think the big
16:04breakthrough will come with biometric
16:07data so from most of these algorithms
16:09whether it's Amazon or Netflix or
16:12whatever they work mainly on the basis
16:15of data external to my body they follow
16:19me around in space see where I go which
16:22places I visit they see my likes and
16:25dislikes on Facebook what do I buy and
16:28but the real breakthrough will come when
16:32they start receiving more and more data
16:34from biometric sensors on or inside my
16:37body a quantifiable I read a book and
16:41amazon knows exactly what is the impact
16:44of every sentence I'm reading on my
16:47heartbeat on my blood pressure on my
16:50brain activity this is really where you
16:54can see how an external system can make
16:56better decisions for you basically
17:00reflecting ourselves back at us you look
17:02at products and because of cookies when
17:04you go elsewhere on the web it's like oh
17:05I see that thing again yeah it's just
17:07being reflected back at me same thing
17:08with your Netflix queue and I gave
17:10certain star ratings to certain things
17:11that's reflecting that same pattern back
17:13at exactly those recommendations
17:14something that's interesting to me is
17:16the idea of mapping concepts in a
17:18feature space using deep learning and
17:20then basically projecting it in
17:22different forms and so the idea of
17:24tracking what your eyes are looking at
17:26what's keeping your attention what makes
17:27your heart rate get up what makes your
17:29eyes dilate while you're reading a book
17:31you can imagine as you're reading it
17:33being reformatted and communicating in
17:35different ways because they know this
17:37different way will reach you better and
17:38you'll be more receptive to it and so it
17:41might not necessarily be what feels
17:44system of plugging an electrode into
17:45your brain and saying now you're gonna
17:48care about reading history you can say
17:50here's the optimal way to present
17:52history to this specific individual
17:53this is especially been explored in new
17:56educational methods an AI teacher that
17:59studies you while it is teaching you and
18:02adapting to your particular strengths
18:05and to your particular with weaknesses
18:08also breaking down all the traditional
18:11limitations and barriers of modern
18:15education and when modern education
18:17takes place in school and you have this
18:19division there is school and there is
18:22real life outside school and also in
18:24school now if you have considered you
18:27have a single AI mentor that follows you
18:30around everywhere your whole life 24
18:33connected to biometric sensors on your
18:36body and there is no longer any division
18:39between school and life there is no
18:41history teacher and mathematics teacher
18:43you have the same teacher for both and
18:45you don't have to be part of a group
18:47like the 30 other kids in the in the
18:50class basically an AI assistant where
18:53it's constantly in Socratic debate with
18:55you yes kids are inclined already to say
18:57like okay but why okay but how okay but
18:59why and they keep digging kind of deeper
19:01until you as a parent or a teacher just
19:02like because it is okay whereas an AI
19:04system assuming it's mapped out like the
19:07entire Canon of human philosophy and
19:09knowledge basically just keep going even
19:11if it doesn't go all the way to that
19:13extent you could have a huge increase in
19:16productivity of Education just by like
19:19providing those kinds of tools ation I
19:22mean I come from the world of
19:23developmental psychology and education
19:25and the Holy Grail has always been this
19:27idea of like mass personalization to be
19:29able to customize but I want to make two
19:31points one I agree with this idea
19:33Vygotsky had this idea it's a
19:34constructivist way way of learning
19:36you're constructing your learning your
19:39world and that's how you learn these
19:40concepts in a very fundamental way and
19:42it's really ironic because educators
19:44been trying to fake that in the school
19:46setting for years by Montessori methods
19:48and all these other Reggie Amelia
19:50because of this false artificial divide
19:52which in real life in school the flip
19:54side however and I don't think we can
19:57there is a social element to what why
20:00school matters a socialization component
20:02that has arguably nothing to do with
20:04education and where there is shared
20:06learning and collaboration and the
20:08interaction of students and so I wonder
20:11what this means for that well you can
20:14have it outside school as well you're
20:16saying there's no distinction between
20:16school anymore it doesn't have to be
20:19limited okay is that all your friends
20:20are the same age is you there is no
20:22reason why the group with which you
20:24socialize in school everybody have to be
20:27the same age well that actually is
20:28another way that technology brings you
20:30back to the past because if you think of
20:32Little House on the Prairie the
20:33schoolhouse was essentially all the
20:34grades in a single school just as a
20:36physical location but you're arguing
20:38that those boundaries that that the idea
20:41essentially melts away that feels like
20:44an inevitable transition anyway whether
20:46it's corporations or education it's this
20:48idea of take in this large set of inputs
20:50crank out like some modified set of
20:52outputs that fulfill some need well the
20:54question that I have for you guys and
20:55especially given sapiens and the themes
20:57of Homo dias is what do humans have to
21:00believe in order to make this reality
21:03continue happening do they not have any
21:06agency in any of this because it sounds
21:08like we're almost talking about like you
21:09know these these uploaded brains in a
21:11vat and is there any sense of
21:14coordination consciously is there a new
21:16religion I used to watch Star Wars as a
21:18kid I remember thinking of myself cuz I
21:20grew up in though and you learn a lot
21:22about all these Hindu you know gods and
21:23goddesses I'm every thinking this
21:24reminds me a lot of like like hearing
21:27about the Mahabharata and all these
21:28other things happening anyway I would
21:30argue that science fiction is like
21:31religion for a lot of people but what do
21:33people have to believe in this new world
21:35like what is their religion um is there
21:37what I mean you make the argument about
21:39like data is in your religion but that
21:41sounds to me more of a something that's
21:44there versus something that people are
21:46choosing like creating new myths and
21:47gods around actively I think we are
21:50seeing and we will see more and more the
21:52rise of kind of Technol religions
21:53religions based on technology yet that
21:56make all the old promises of traditional
21:59religions they promise justice and
22:02happiness and even immortality and
22:05paradise but here on earth with the help
22:08of technology there already has been one
22:11very important techno religion in
22:12history which is which is socialism
22:16which came in the 19th century with
22:19Industrial Revolution and what Marx and
22:21Lenin basically said we will create
22:23paradise on earth with the help of
22:26technology steam engines and electricity
22:28and so forth when Lenin was once asked
22:32to define communism in a single sentence
22:35the answer he gave was communism is
22:39power to the workers councils plus
22:42electrification of the whole country you
22:45cannot establish a communist regime
22:48without industrialization it is based on
22:51the technology of the Industrial
22:53Revolution electricity and steam engines
22:55and so forth and the idea is we'll use
22:57this technology to create paradise on
23:00earth they didn't really work very well
23:02so now I think we will see the second
23:05wave of technologies now we have
23:09genetics and now we have big data and
23:12above all we have algorithms the Earth's
23:15our salvation paradise will come from
23:18the algorithms you talk about in the
23:22book the idea that the more you commit
23:26or sacrifice on behalf of your ideology
23:29or religion the more you buy into it
23:30because you have this like sunk cost and
23:32so the idea of like sacrificing a goat
23:33or a cow to a god made you buy more into
23:36it cuz I can't have like spent the last
23:37eight season sacrifice and goats and
23:39have it been for nothing and so looking
23:41forward then we're hitting some kind of
23:43productivity cap as normal humans that
23:44autonomous autonomous machines and
23:47systems are going to beat us so we have
23:48to sacrifice our own humanity to
23:50increase our own productivity and
23:51augment ourselves you can all see the
23:53emergence of some kind of powerful
23:55ideology like the religion of the 21st
23:58century onward is we are the gods this
24:01is actually an old idea humanism which
24:04goes back to the 18th century in 17th
24:06century is saying humans of the gods
24:08a humans of the source of all meaning
24:10and authority everything you expected
24:12previously from the gods to give
24:14legitimacy to political systems to make
24:18decisions in ethics humanism comes
24:20inside the highest source of authority
24:22in politics is the voter
24:25the highest source of authority in
24:26economics in the customer the highest
24:29source of authority in ethics is your
24:31own feelings humans are the gods now we
24:34are we are entering a post humanist era
24:38authorities shifting away from humans if
24:41in the last 300 years
24:43we saw authority descending from the
24:46clouds to earth to humans
24:49now Authority is shifting back to the
24:51clouds but not to God but to the Google
24:53cloud to the Microsoft cloud the basic
24:56idea of this if you want new religion or
24:58new ideology is again that given enough
25:01data and enough computing power an
25:03algorithm can understand me better than
25:06I understand myself and make decisions
25:08for me in the end religion is about
25:11Authority rather the basic question of
25:14religion where does authority comes from
25:17and the answer of the 21st century
25:20Authority doesn't come from human
25:22authority comes from data and from data
25:25processing there is awesome and
25:27underlined new ontology what is the
25:30world what is reality
25:31in the end reality is just a flow of
25:35data physics biology economics it's all
25:39just a flow of data interpreting some
25:43fraction of reality there were all
25:44algorithms as a connective tissue of
25:46everything from biology to computers to
25:49everything I have a quick question for
25:50you here what does this mean for the
25:52future of the firm work I would love to
25:55hear your thoughts on the universal
25:56basic income debate that's playing out
25:58around the world right now because
26:00that's essentially people opting out of
26:02the rat race and some arguments I think
26:04we need new economic models in place for
26:07the moment when AI in robots and so
26:10forth may push more and more humans out
26:13of the job market and we might see the
26:15creation of a new class of people who
26:18are not just unemployed but unemployable
26:20and at present that the best ideas so
26:24far that people managed to come up with
26:26is universal basic income the problem
26:28there is that we don't really know what
26:31Universal means and we don't really know
26:33what basic right and where the income
26:35comes from but that's another sidebar
26:37I'd say you talks and use the proceeds
26:40to give people universal basic income
26:43now then the question is what is
26:45universal what do we see the day when
26:47the US government taxes the profits of
26:51Google in the US and uses it to pay
26:53people in Bangladesh or Mexico who lost
26:56their jobs so this is the first issue of
26:59universal because now the economy is
27:01global and a disruption of the economy
27:04say by the rise of AI will require a
27:07global solution and most people who
27:10think about universal basic income they
27:13think in national terms Universal for
27:15them means US citizens the other problem
27:18is what is basic basic human needs keep
27:21changing all the time we are beyond the
27:23point when basic needs meant food and
27:26shelter and the problem is that humans
27:28are biased towards looking at examples
27:30that are based on who you know it's hard
27:33to see kind of that level of ubi pulling
27:36off it feels like people's expectations
27:37would be much higher depending on where
27:38they are and what life they've already
27:39lived the basic problem is that people's
27:44expectations keep changing usually they
27:48grow as conditions improve expectations
27:51increase and therefore what you see is
27:57that even though the conditions over the
27:59last centuries of most unions have
28:02improved quite dramatically people are
28:05not becoming more satisfied because
28:07their expectations also increase and
28:10this is going to continue in the 21st
28:13century yeah I have a question here
28:15because you know in sapiens you said
28:17something that I thought was very
28:17profound when I read it which is that
28:20the agricultural revolution was actually
28:22one of the greatest frauds and from
28:24perpetrated on ourselves and so if you
28:26think about this shift from agricultural
28:27revolution to Industrial Revolution to
28:30now essentially information revolution
28:32what's the fraud that we're perpetrating
28:34on ourselves now where does meaning come
28:36from because I think the thing that
28:37people often forget to address when they
28:39talk about the universal basic income
28:40and you know future of work debate is is
28:43this idea of meaning and does that even
28:45russell's people tend to pick up the
28:47pitchforks exactly exactly because it'll
28:50also go see your points and
28:52is a universal theme that we have to
28:53address on some level of further
28:56entrenching inequalities that's an
28:57important thing to think about different
28:59problems I mean first you have
29:00inequality and once more and more people
29:05no longer work they depend on the
29:07universal basic income then they have no
29:10way of closing the gaps there they
29:13depend on charity on whatever the
29:15government is able or willing to give
29:17them and you just don't see any way in
29:20which they can close the gap but if
29:22they're dependent on it because it can
29:23also be something that supplementary
29:24does something else you do I'm thinking
29:26in terms of what happens if again AI
29:29pushes more and more human out of the
29:31job market so they rely on universal
29:34basic income and it provides whatever it
29:36provides but if they want more they just
29:38have no way of getting more so this kind
29:42of entrenches inequality and if you add
29:46that biotechnology in bioengineering you
29:49get for the first time in history the
29:52potential of translating economic
29:55inequality into biological inequality
29:58yes if you look back at here at history
30:00let's say the Hindu caste system people
30:03imagined that the Brahmins are superior
30:06they are smarter they are more creative
30:08they are more ethical but at least as
30:11far as scientists today are concerned
30:13this wasn't true it was all imagination
30:16way that was not true it was not true it
30:18wasn't true that the son of the brahman
30:19or the son of the king was biologically
30:23smarter more creative whatever than the
30:26son or daughter of a simple peasant
30:28however in the 21st century it might be
30:31possible for the first time to translate
30:33economic inequality into real biological
30:37inequality and once this starts it
30:40becomes almost impossible to close the
30:42gap so this is one problem of a rising
30:46inequality another problem is the
30:49question of meaning that even if you can
30:51provide people with food and shelter and
30:54medicine and so forth how will they find
30:57meaning in life for many people the
31:00world of jobs provide them with meaning
31:02I'm doing something important in life
31:05mission I believe in that yeah so one of
31:07the answers some experts say is that
31:12people will just play games most of the
31:15day they'll spend more and more time in
31:17virtual realities that will provide them
31:20with more meaning and more excitement
31:23and emotional engagement than anything
31:26in in in the real reality everyone just
31:29lives on there perfectly optimized for
31:31them holodeck exactly and says you're
31:34freed from the constraints of the
31:35physical reality mhm yeah and you get
31:37your meaning from the game from the
31:39virtual reality game and in a way you
31:42can say oh this is nothing new it's been
31:44happening for thousands of years it's
31:46simply been called religion
31:48I mean religion is a virtual reality
31:50game that provides people with meaning
31:53by imposing imaginary rules on an
31:58objective reality you play this game
32:00that you have to collect points if I eat
32:03non-kosher food I lose points and if by
32:06the time I die I got old enough points
32:08then I go to up to the next level I mean
32:10in Hinduism karma is essentially this
32:13great game of collecting and subtracting
32:15points across multiple lifetimes exactly
32:17so really quickly this goes back to the
32:20automation kind of question and you know
32:23potential future if you look back at
32:25kind of the Industrial Revolution where
32:28humans as mechanical actors just imbuing
32:33something with value by acting on it
32:34with their hands or you know bodies with
32:36agriculture that became most important
32:38as using animals and then machines were
32:41able to do that same task much more
32:42efficiently now humans are valuable
32:44because there are knowledgeable
32:45operators of that machine as part of the
32:48Industrial Revolution the shift to
32:49services led to this like idea though
32:51we're not just investing in capital
32:52we're investing in human capital we're
32:53making people smarter so that they're
32:55better at the job yeah
32:56and now with AI systems suddenly again
32:58you can just kind of buy knowledge
32:59capital as this thing that can be
33:01dropped in okay in our game right how
33:04humans remain valuable is well we're
33:06still social animals we still are better
33:08than any machine at interpreting how
33:10other people are thinking about this and
33:11you know a swaging fears or you know
33:13whatever it is that where the power of
33:16empathy is what humans will bring to the
33:18an interesting point you make is
33:20actually how humans accomplish our task
33:22a doctor giving bad news about a cancer
33:24diagnosis they are looking at the
33:27physical way that the person is moving
33:30their facial muscles how their tone
33:32changes how their voice cracks as they
33:34feel a certain emotion and if you look
33:36that's actually just pattern recognition
33:38which is exactly what deep learning is
33:40good at and so is that even an advantage
33:42humans are gonna have or computers gonna
33:44be much better at looking not just at
33:45those exact same features that humans
33:47can but also like zooming in on the eyes
33:49looking at dilated pupils and guessing
33:51at heart rate by looking at someone's
33:53wrists or chest what are humans going to
33:55be good at what should people be
33:56investing in for you know the future to
33:58come yeah what happens when human
34:00capital becomes commodified we don't
34:02really have an answer yes many people
34:04when they reach that point they say okay
34:05what will invest in in social skills in
34:09empathy in recognizing emotions the
34:12emotions are like intelligence the last
34:14frontier but the thing is that emotions
34:17are not some spiritual phenomenon that
34:20God gave emotions are a biochemical
34:25phenomena yeah there are biological
34:27patterns just like cancer when your
34:30doctor wants to know how you feel he or
34:33she basically recognize patterns in two
34:36kinds of data as you mentioned it's what
34:38you say in actually the tone of your
34:40voice even more important than your the
34:43content of what you're saying and
34:45secondly your body language and your
34:47facial expression when my doctor looks
34:49at me at the clinic she doesn't know
34:52what's the level of my a my a blood
34:55pressure at the moment she doesn't know
34:57which parts of my brain are activated
34:59right now but an AI potentially will be
35:03able to know that in real time using
35:05biometric sensors it will have much
35:08better sources of data coming from
35:10within your body so their ability to
35:12diagnose emotions will be better than
35:16the ability of most if not all humans so
35:19what will humans do we don't know nobody
35:22really has an idea a good idea of how
35:25the job market would look like in 30 or
35:2740 years we'll have some new jobs maybe
35:29not enough to compensate for all the
35:32we'll be new jobs problem is we don't
35:34know what they are because the pace of
35:37change is accelerating it's very likely
35:40that you will have to reinvent yourself
35:43again and again and again during your
35:46lifetime if you want to stay in the game
35:48right when you don't have premature
35:50death anymore and you live your full
35:52life where you even have extended
35:53longevity through technology you can
35:56reinvent yourself like 10 times until
35:58you're 100 or the basic idea for
36:00thousands of years was that human life
36:03is divided into two periods in the first
36:06period of life you mostly learn you
36:09learn skills you gain knowledge and then
36:12in the second part of your life you
36:14mostly work and you make use of what you
36:17learned earlier this is now not going
36:20it's going to break down by the time
36:22you're 50 what you learned as a teenager
36:25is mostly irrelevant it's already true
36:27right now so now you know again thinking
36:29about autonomy you know we're already
36:31seeing the shift towards smaller
36:33militaries with really advanced
36:35equipment and fighter jets and we're see
36:37robots on the battlefield as humans
36:39become less valuable economic actors as
36:41they become less necessary to fight for
36:43power at kind of that scale mmm-hmm how
36:46does that factor into you know the
36:48extension or lack thereof of you know
36:51political agency most people today have
36:54absolutely no military value in the 20th
36:57century the most advanced armies relied
37:00on recruiting millions of common
37:03soldiers to fight in the trenches now
37:06they rely increasingly on small numbers
37:09of highly professional soldiers super
37:11warriors all the Special Forces and so
37:13forth it surgically targeted and they
37:15rely increasingly or sophisticated and
37:17autonomous technology like drones and
37:19robots in cyber warfare so you just
37:21don't need people militarily as before
37:25which means not only that they are in
37:27danger of losing their political power
37:29but also that the government will have a
37:32far smaller incentive investing in their
37:35health and education and welfare may be
37:39the biggest project and achievement of
37:42most states in the 20th century was too
37:46these massive systems of Education
37:49safety net and and welfare and you see
37:52this not only in democracies but also in
37:55totalitarian regimes but if you don't
37:57need them as soldiers or workers then
38:00the incentive to build hospitals and
38:03schools and so forth diminishes in a
38:06country like Iran or Sweden
38:08I think the traditions of the welfare
38:11state and the social democracy will be
38:13strong enough that the Swedish state
38:16will continue to invest in the education
38:18and health of most of the people there
38:21even if there is no military or economic
38:24necessity but if you think about large
38:27developing countries it's much much more
38:30complicated if the government doesn't
38:32need tens of millions of Nigerians to
38:35service soldiers and workers maybe it
38:39will have not have enough incentive to
38:42invest in their health and education and
38:44this is very very bad news for most of
38:49the human race which lives in places
38:52like Nigeria and not in places like
38:54Sweden and so what's the best course of
38:57action to follow if that's the case is
38:59it make sure that the most inclusive
39:02institutions possible are in place
39:03before that transition happens we don't
39:05have enough time I think that we are not
39:07only intense in terms of centuries right
39:09we are talking in terms of decades and
39:11once the transition takes place
39:13especially in the civilian economy in
39:16the military it already happened we are
39:19in the civilian economy maybe we have 20
39:22years 30 years 40 years nobody really
39:24knows it's a very short time if we don't
39:27have a workable model by the time the
39:31transition is in high gear then it's
39:35going to be both extremely difficult
39:39situation for the majority of people in
39:41the world and the social and political
39:45implications are going to destabilize
39:47the whole world including the first
39:51world you talked in your book your new
39:53book a lot about how there's three types
39:55of capital that raw materials and energy
39:57when people have ignored a third type
40:00and my question from just an economic
40:02perspective is how does this tie and tie
40:05we think about growth especially even
40:07what you just talked about this need to
40:08enlarge the pie in order to avoid war in
40:11violence it's often thought that there
40:13is a limit to the potential growth of
40:16the economy because there is a limit to
40:18the amount of energy in raw material we
40:21have access to but this is an I think
40:23the wrong approach we have a third kind
40:26of asset which is knowledge and the more
40:29knowledge you have the more energy
40:32you also have because you discover new
40:35sources of energy and new sources of raw
40:38materials I don't think that we are
40:41going to bump into a limit in terms of
40:44all there is not enough oil in the world
40:46there is not enough coal in the world
40:48this is not the problem the problem is
40:51probably going to come from the
40:53direction of climate change and
40:54ecological degradation which is
40:57something very different people tend to
40:59confuse the two problems not enough raw
41:02materials and the problem of climate
41:04change but they are very different I
41:05actually wanted to probe about this
41:07because in sapiens one of the things
41:09that you talked about was how we've had
41:11waves of climate change throughout the
41:13entire history of our planet and and and
41:16one of them by I'm no climate change
41:18denier by any means but I can't help but
41:21ask the question if you know whether
41:23we're the cause or it's an it's a
41:24cyclical effect what it means for what
41:27the next cycle of change will be because
41:28the one thing that came through loud and
41:29clear was how every wave of climate
41:31change has brought about a corresponding
41:33change in human evolution well there
41:36certainly have been many periods of
41:39climate change before but it does seem
41:42that this time it's different that this
41:44time it is caused to at least certain
41:47degree by human action and not by some
41:50natural forces like plate tectonics or
41:53ice ages or things like that and the
41:55potential impact for human civilization
41:58and for most other organisms on the
42:02planet is catastrophic so you know it
42:06could be both natural causes and human
42:10causes at the same time it doesn't make
42:14just may be effective the effects right
42:15in your book you have this beautiful
42:18quote which I thought was really
42:19straight articulation modern modernity
42:22is a deal all of us sign up to this deal
42:24on the day we are born and it regulates
42:26our lives until the day we die
42:28very few of us can ever rescind or
42:30transcend this deal it shapes our food
42:32our jobs and our dreams and it decides
42:34where we dwell whom we love and how we
42:36pass away and I want to know if you have
42:39any parting thoughts for people whose
42:40lives are being shifted by some of the
42:43technological change since the main
42:46theme has been technology and the future
42:49of Technology in its impact on society
42:51in politics I think that my closing
42:54thought is that technology is never
42:57deterministic you can build very
43:01different kinds of political and social
43:03systems with the same kind of technology
43:06you could use you know that the
43:08technology is the Industrial Revolution
43:10the trains and electricity in radio you
43:13could use them to build the communist
43:15dictatorship or a fascist regime of a
43:18liberal democracy yeah the trains did
43:20not tell you what to do with them in the
43:23same way in the 21st century will have
43:26artificial intelligence and
43:28bioengineering and so forth but they
43:31don't determine as a single outcome we
43:36can use it to build very different kinds
43:40of societies we can't we can't just stop
43:43technological progress it won't happen
43:45whenever we still have a lot of
43:48influence over the direction it is
43:50taking so if there are some future
43:54scenarios that you don't like you can
43:57still do something about it yeah well
43:59thank you so much for joining the ASIC
44:01cincy podcast if people have not already
44:03read sapiens they must read that and
44:06especially the new book homo Davis a
44:08brief history of tomorrow thanks for
44:10coming in we really appreciate your time
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