00:00we've had some incredible guests join us
00:01on the acccz podcast this year ranging
00:03from moonshot entrepreneurs to top
00:05creators to some of the most
00:07forward-thinking technologists all of
00:09which are busy shaping the future right
00:11before our eyes and we have so much in
00:13store for 2023 and truly cannot wait for
00:16you to hear who we have on the roster
00:18but before we turn the calendar and
00:20close out the year we wanted to cover
00:22some of the most interesting
00:23thought-provoking and important segments
00:25from our 2022 roster by the way as we
00:28look to the New Year make sure you drop
00:29in the comments who you'd like to see on
00:31the podcast the content here is for
00:33informational purposes only should not
00:35be taken as legal business tax or
00:37investment advice or be used to evaluate
00:39any investment or security and is not
00:42directed at any investors or potential
00:44investors in any a16z fund for more
00:47bca16z.com disclosures
00:59so in our first clip we have none other
01:02than Mark and Jason Mark has a unique
01:04perspective of someone who's helped both
01:06build and invest in the future but he's
01:08also spent a wealth of time studying
01:10history so in this clip Mark discusses
01:12the moral Panic that's accompanied new
01:14technologies throughout history and
01:16specifically one of the most unique ways
01:18that Society responded to one of those
01:19Technologies the automobile could you
01:22speak a little bit more to the red flag
01:24laws that were implemented when cars
01:26were coming to be yeah it's a car so
01:28this is another great one so like cars
01:29it's like okay like we all live with
01:31cars we all can't live without cars like
01:33you know there's still huge fights about
01:35how you know cars should be used in our
01:36society but like there's cars everywhere
01:37like our society doesn't function about
01:39cars we just kind of take them totally
01:41for granted uh by the way we take them
01:43so for granted that we just like
01:44repeatedly bail out the big car
01:45companies right like this at this point
01:48like the taxpayers have kept them in
01:49business for a long time
01:51um and so you know the car and certainly
01:53then you're you're just like you know
01:54it's just like okay the car must have
01:56been this obvious thing like of course
01:57you want the car you know who you know
01:59who could who could have fought the car
02:00at least for any kind of you know kind
02:01of valid reason and so again to your
02:03point like it turns out actually the
02:04cars were were actually a profound
02:06threat to the sort of social order of
02:09that time uh of the ERA this is like
02:11going back 120 years
02:13um and uh and it was basically this
02:15exact same kind of process played out
02:16with the car um and so the the the the
02:19thing you mentioned basically the thing
02:21that happened at the peak of kind of the
02:22anti-car history at the time uh the
02:24moral Panic around cars was basically
02:26it's basically what happened was cars
02:28were a threat to basically they were the
02:30threat to like the ordering of like
02:31everything from how cities were laid out
02:32they were you know a threat to you know
02:34they were going to upend you know the
02:35ability to have like modern
02:36Transportation modern shipping you know
02:38they were gonna upend everything from
02:40the world of local Merchants uh they
02:42were gonna up and you know there was an
02:43entire industry of blacksmiths you know
02:45that you know the horse was like Central
02:47to a lot of economies a lot of people
02:48made made their living off of you know
02:50dealing with you know the horses
02:52um you know there were people who were
02:53like trained you know Carriage drivers
02:55who all of a sudden were out of jobs and
02:56so there was this like all of a sudden
02:58this huge backlash and so what happened
02:59was a bunch of sort of State Municipal
03:03level uh areas uh you know both in the
03:05U.S like you know in and around
03:07Pennsylvania at the time and then also
03:10um uh implemented their their
03:12legislators implemented at the time what
03:13became known as the red flag laws
03:16um so the red flag law looks works as
03:19um which is okay Mr car owner you've got
03:22your fancy new car congratulations
03:24um you know you're very proud of
03:26yourself you're probably you know you
03:27know you're probably a pretty uh you
03:28know well-off person uh in the community
03:30people probably generally are probably
03:32jealousy to start with you've got this
03:33fancy new automobile
03:35um and and by the way in those days like
03:36cars broke down all the time and so you
03:38know when you would take your car out
03:39for a ride you'd have like you'd be
03:41driving the car um and then you'd you're
03:43nothing but I can't bring a mechanic
03:45um right to basically fix the car when
03:47it broke they were still getting
03:50um and so you and your your mechanic or
03:51whatever your family you'd be out you
03:52know motoring along in your car on
03:54whatever dirt road you know dirt road at
03:55the time um and the law was that you had
03:58to employ another guy you had to employ
04:01um to walk you know 50 feet in front of
04:03the car uh carrying big red flags
04:08okay so picture this you're driving
04:10along you're out for a nice sunny Drive
04:11you've got your kids whatever you got
04:12your mechanic you're you're going along
04:14it you know cars in those days didn't go
04:16very fast but they did go faster than
04:18you could walk and so you're driving
04:19along at whatever 10 20 miles an hour
04:20but according to the lot you have to
04:22have a guy in front of you on foot like
04:25out in advance and he's got these like
04:26big red flags and you have to follow
04:28this guy because he has to stay in front
04:30of you and so you can only motor along
04:32at whatever the three four miles an hour
04:33you know that this guy can walk and this
04:35guy's like waving the red flags why is
04:36this guy waving the red flags to warn
04:38everybody that a car is coming right
04:41um why why was the explanation that he
04:43needs to warn you know people that a car
04:45is coming well because the car might
04:47scare the horses right so like you know
04:50if the car comes along it's making noise
04:52it scares the horses you know the horses
04:53you know whatever you know that most of
04:55us on the road at that time you know
04:56they freak out or you know but
04:57bystanders freak out people get hurt
04:59like this would be really bad
05:01um and so so literally it's like okay
05:03that was how the car got rolled out the
05:05the most advanced form of this law that
05:06I've been able to find
05:07um uh went a step further uh I said
05:10basically if you're driving along and
05:12you actually see a horse coming at you
05:14you see somebody on a horse coming out
05:16the other direction you have to pull
05:18over to the side of the road you have to
05:20disassemble the car you have to take it
05:23right you and your mechanic would take
05:25the car apart and you have to hide the
05:27parts of the car so that the horse can't
05:29right because the horse might get scared
05:31right you get scared by the appearance
05:32of the car and then when the horse goes
05:34by you can then reassemble your car
05:35right and keep going right and of course
05:38you look back today you're just like
05:39okay this is like incredibly comical
05:40like how could they ever do this and
05:41then of course you you exactly your
05:42point like social networking you think
05:44of exactly the technology so then you're
05:45like oh yeah you know they're putting in
05:46place laws that you know 100 years from
05:48now you know the laws that are being put
05:49in place now on a lot of modern
05:51technology topics are going to look just
05:52as silly as thread flag laws but
05:54since nobody ever learns anything
05:56history will repeat next we have Balaji
06:00srinivasan one of the most prominent
06:02blue flame thinkers of Our Generation
06:03and in this clip biology discusses the
06:06topic of a cloud continent how we're
06:08already living a large portion of our
06:10lives there and what it might mean for
06:12someone to fully migrate to the internet
06:14Frontier you can think of the internet
06:16as basically like giving rise to a new
06:18continent okay imagine an Atlantis that
06:22just arose out of the middle of the
06:24ocean and people were just taking
06:26commuter flights there back and forth
06:28each day okay so you'd spend eight hours
06:31in Atlantis and 16 hours at home that's
06:33really what the internet is you know how
06:35I can prove that well we're in it right
06:37now well right exactly like one way of
06:39thinking about it is ask themselves what
06:41percentage of their time they spend
06:43their waking hours do they spend looking
06:45at a screen of some kind
06:47okay whether it's laptop mobile phone
06:49tablet uh you know they're a smart watch
06:52something like that right what
06:54percentage of that time is that for you
06:55stuff I unfortunately have to say it's
06:58probably like 14 hours a day but I'm I'm
07:01probably in something like that I'd say
07:03probably the average person though right
07:05it's it's a third of their day maybe
07:06eight hours that's right so what that
07:08means and that's up from basically zero
07:11in 1991. yes right so you know this this
07:15Atlantis This Cloud continent right so
07:19just to extend the metaphor we're taking
07:20these commuter planes up to the cloud
07:23continent 14 hours a day and coming back
07:26and we're only spending
07:28two hours of her waking lives in your
07:30case on the land and 14 hours in the
07:33cloud right for other people it might
07:35only only be a few like three or four
07:37hours but like that's amazing billions
07:39of people have migrated huge chunks of
07:43their lives to This Cloud continent okay
07:45when you say billions I mean like three
07:48something billion just on Facebook right
07:49you add all the people with smartphones
07:51and so on so let's it's on there to
07:52three four billion people in the world
07:53half the people of the Earth have are
07:57now spending half their lives in this
07:59Cloud continent half their waking hours
08:02okay up from nothing in 1990 something
08:05when we think about that that is
08:07actually a different way of visualizing
08:10the whole thing and you realize the
08:12internet is actually on par with the
08:14discovery of the Americas for the
08:16Europeans right yes of course there were
08:18people in the Americas before the
08:19Europeans got there uh I talked about
08:21this in the book actually that like if
08:23you go and look at the bonto expansion
08:26or the Mongols sweeping across the world
08:28there's there's essentially no ethnic
08:31group that has ever had some location
08:33since time immemorial they just killed
08:36the previous folks and kind of took over
08:38their territory or whatever right so
08:39leaving that whole part of things aside
08:41from the perspective the Europeans like
08:43quote the discovery of the new world was
08:45this you know huge thing you know
08:47similarly like the folks who went over
08:49the Bering Strait their discovery of the
08:52Americas was this huge thing was this
08:53new frontier right which is obviously
08:55thousands of years earlier this internet
08:56Frontier where we've migrated to
09:00will over time give rise to new
09:02countries just like the Americas did
09:05right the Americas that people came
09:08there and they didn't think of
09:10themselves as American or Brazilian or
09:14Mexican or Canadian or something like
09:17that nowadays North and South America
09:18have they're all you know slotted into
09:20the same grid as like the old world
09:22right but initially they thought of
09:24themselves as English or French or you
09:26know they were colonists they were
09:27settlers right they didn't identify with
09:30the new land as primary and the old
09:32world is secondary right they don't
09:34think of themselves as a Polish American
09:36or english-american right that's also
09:39it's just English and that's similar to
09:42folks who spend all of this time In This
09:45Cloud continent but have not made the
09:46flip right you're spending the majority
09:48of your time in the cloud continent
09:50but you're not thinking of yourself as a
09:52cloud person yes first yet yeah is the
09:55key word I think yet I think one that's
09:58a keyword our next clip is from one of
10:00the original pioneers of speculo fiction
10:02no more so than his foreshadowing novel
10:04of snow crash a groundbreaking piece of
10:06literature that I imagine the metaverse
10:08avatars and AI powered assistants long
10:10before their existence not to mention
10:12his countless other books like
10:13kryptonomicon touching on digital
10:15currencies in this case again long
10:17before the masses if you haven't already
10:19guessed I'm talking Neil Stevenson and
10:21in this clip Neil discusses whether or
10:23not the metaverse the term he coined 30
10:25years ago is reliant on AR or VR it's
10:28really important that you're bringing up
10:30the engineering side of this because
10:31it's not just how we want these worlds
10:34to look but also how they align with our
10:36engineering capabilities and of course
10:38one way that these games are advancing
10:42augmented and virtual reality or at
10:44least some of them are venturing into
10:47I'd love to hear your take on the
10:49importance of that whether these
10:51metaverses do need to be in quote
10:53unquote 3D or whether actually many of
10:56them can survive and continue to thrive
10:58in the two-dimensional world that many
11:00people are participating in because that
11:02really is the world that many of us are
11:04used to right staring at our phone
11:05staring at screens and many people even
11:08though they're not truly immersed right
11:09they're not in the three Third Dimension
11:11they feel quite immersed still they feel
11:14like you know that they stop playing
11:16their game after five hours and they
11:17feel like they've truly been in another
11:20what are your thoughts on the level of
11:23immersion required for this
11:26quote-unquote metaverse we absolutely do
11:29not need AR and VR uh in order to build
11:3430 years ago when I wrote the book
11:37I had a different view of it and so I
11:40assumed that it would be all about
11:43um a lot has changed since then and
11:45we've all learned a lot Doom came out
11:47the year after snow crash was published
11:51and it's kind of almost hard to remember
11:53a time when there weren't
11:55games like Doom meaning games where your
11:59screen is a flat window into a
12:02three-dimensional World
12:04um so if you had described Doom to me
12:08you know in 1992 said well you're okay
12:12you're looking at a flat panel screen in
12:14front of you on a monitor but you're
12:17seeing a 3D world through it you're
12:19running around in that world I'm not
12:21sure if I would have understood it or
12:23believed that that could ever really
12:26um but now you know fast forward 30
12:28years the day-to-day world that we're
12:31living in is one in which billions of
12:34people routinely access
12:36three-dimensional spaces through
12:38rectangles on two-dimensional screens uh
12:42be they you know the screen of a laptop
12:44you know or a phone that you're holding
12:47up in front of your face
12:48and it works really well and one of the
12:51the really weird aspects of it is the
12:54Primitive control scheme so most people
12:57are using like the wasde keys on their
13:00Keyboard Plus a mouse in order to
13:02navigate these worlds keyboards are a
13:05Victorian technology and yet the human
13:09brain is so adaptable that even you know
13:14as clumsy as that is and as as
13:16Antiquated as that is
13:19um wasde is a perfectly uh useful way of
13:24navigating around in 3D spaces I'm going
13:26to talk about VR AR is a whole different
13:28thing but let me just talk about VR for
13:31a sec you know early VR just because of
13:33the limitations on processing power and
13:36so on had high latency and and other
13:40um kind of quality issues and uh it was
13:44I think pretty widely believed even as
13:4710 years ago that as latency got reduced
13:52as the quality of the experience
13:54improved that we'd see a decrease in the
13:57tendency of users to get motion with
14:00um and I think that there was a decrease
14:02but it didn't go to zero it went to
14:05maybe the last I've heard is like maybe
14:07five ten percent state-of-the-art
14:10quality VR are going to experience some
14:13uh some symptoms and in fact I was
14:16playing a 2d video game just the other
14:18day where my friends and I turned on a
14:21new feature and we all had to stop
14:24because we were getting we were getting
14:25motion sickness so imagine if you were
14:28trying to popularize television
14:31in the 1950s and he said we've got these
14:35great programs we've got I Love Lucy
14:37we've got the Ed Sullivan Show you know
14:40entertainment for the whole family uh
14:43five to ten percent of you are going to
14:45end up throwing up into a waste basket
14:48you know after half an hour of watching
14:52um well that that's a really high bar to
14:57acceptance of entertainment technology
15:01for AR it's just a different thing I
15:04mean by its nature when you're in an AR
15:06experience it is or it should be somehow
15:09tied to the environment you're sitting
15:12in because if it's not it's just VR it's
15:15just kind of bad VR you know one of the
15:18most fascinating things I ever did was
15:21working trying to make content at Magic
15:24leap where everything that we built had
15:28be aware of in some sense the what was
15:32in the physical environment and be
15:36um so of an incredible thing to work on
15:38but because of that it's I think it's
15:41kind of different from what most people
15:43talk about when they talk about the
15:44metaverse speaking of the metaverse next
15:47up is Karen Chang a wildly popular
15:49content creator who is reshaping the
15:51Creator landscape through her use and
15:53exploration of AI and augmented reality
15:55you'll truly have to go to her accounts
15:57to see what I'm talking about but in
15:59this segment we asked Karen about the
16:00interplay between artists and these new
16:02tools and whether in fact the artist is
16:04losing relevance in this equation Karen
16:06I think makes the perfect analogy to
16:08Peter Pan highlighting the democratizing
16:10force of these new technologies the may
16:13be more interesting question is how
16:15fungible was Karen in that process and I
16:18don't want to yes how replaceable am I
16:20but if you gave Average Joe the same
16:23project and the same tool do you think
16:27they would come up with anything
16:30I think a lot of people would have been
16:33able to make a really good Cosmo cover
16:36um I think those people would have been
16:40the people who would have done it best
16:41are people who have a good artistic eye
16:44have the kind of the patience and the
16:47motivation to keep going and keep
16:49refining on the prompt and who can like
16:53describe what they see in their head
16:56and so a lot of these people are not
16:58necessarily traditional artists you know
16:59I think a lot of people could have made
17:00a really really good result I there's
17:03actually an example that I have that we
17:06can show up that we can show on screen I
17:09a while ago wanted to expand The Girl
17:12With a Pearl Earring so you may have
17:14seen one thing that you can do that was
17:16actually just announced is you can
17:18expand paintings in Dali
17:22um and so you can basically like take a
17:24famous painting and then imagine what
17:25was all around it so you can take like
17:27the Mona Lisa and imagine like where was
17:28she you can take the girl the Pearl
17:30Earring imagine like everything that was
17:33and so I made a video a while back where
17:35I imagined her like in a like library
17:38and she was holding a book and I was
17:40like I want her to be like an educated
17:45um and then I actually
17:47um am working with a project uh with
17:49openai actually right now it's one that
17:51they commissioned uh it will it's not
17:53out yet but it will probably be out by
17:55the time this podcast releases so if you
17:58go on my Instagram uh on Karen next Chen
18:00you'll be able to go and see this filter
18:02we made this Instagram filter where we
18:05expanded these famous paintings
18:09um you can actually go inside through
18:11them and see these famous paintings
18:13and I looked at my girl the Pearl
18:15Earring and I was like
18:17this can be done better and so I hired
18:22um the person who taught me about this
18:24method and she is she has spent way more
18:28time in Dolly than I have she's so
18:31artistic and talented and then when she
18:34showed me I hired her to do this Pearl
18:36Earring and when she showed me hers
18:41moved to tears almost like
18:46that is what you made and so I felt like
18:49she was irreplaceable in this I mean
18:53I'm sure I could have hired 10 different
18:55artists to do this Pearl Earring and
18:57gotten 10 very different results and
18:59what I like about this example is that
19:02everyone is starting with the same
19:03Source image and so it almost
19:05establishes like a little bit of like a
19:07control you know for it and so
19:11um I think this is the perfect case
19:12study for like hey different humans get
19:15very different results with AI yeah it's
19:18it's a tool as you said but the reason I
19:20asked if you were fungible is because I
19:22just I really wonder how this progresses
19:24in terms of we know it's going to be
19:26somewhat of a democratizing force
19:28because now a bunch of people who like
19:29couldn't paint or couldn't do Photoshop
19:31in certain ways like can now do it and
19:34create all of this art or or or these
19:36outputs but I do Wonder then does that
19:40make a lot of people really successful
19:43or a lot of people really capable or
19:45does it still surface the very very best
19:48to the top right where where there's a
19:51different filter and now the filter is
19:52prompt engineering Ring versus painting
19:54or drawing or singing or whatever it
19:56might have been in the past so do you
19:58think that's still the case where you're
19:59still going to see these like outliers
20:01who are just so much better than the
20:04rest or do you think it'll be more of a
20:06Level Playing Field than what we're
20:07seeing before okay so I think that
20:11what this is gonna do what AI art is
20:13gonna do is it's going to
20:16significantly lower the barrier to entry
20:19so be to be an artist right now you have
20:21to have a lot of time
20:24um a lot of training
20:27um sometimes the monetary Financial need
20:29means to be able to do that or the
20:31willingness to be like a starving artist
20:32to do it or it's a hobby on the side but
20:36there are kind of some there's
20:37definitely a barrier to being an artist
20:39and and now it's like everyone can do it
20:43and it's almost like I almost liken
20:46these image synthesizers like dolly or
20:48mid-journey to like a Peter Pan but
20:50instead of stealing from the rich and
20:52giving to the poor it takes the artistic
20:55skill of artists and it's like gives it
20:59to everyone like here you go you know
21:01and so I do think that a lot more people
21:03are going to be empowered to be artistic
21:05or to be artists because they didn't
21:09necessarily have the patience to go like
21:11learn oil painting but now
21:12but they actually do have the talent to
21:15be able to describe what's in their
21:16imagination and continue to refine until
21:18they get the result they want in the
21:20next few Clips we talked to the team at
21:22Privateer an ambitious company with a
21:24mission of improving the sustainability
21:27and in the first clip we talked to Steve
21:29Wozniak you might recognize him as one
21:31of the co-founders of apple and one of
21:33the most impactful engineers and
21:35inventors of our time here Steve
21:37discusses the difference between the
21:38inventor the engineer and the Visionary
21:40and how he envisions them all
21:43contributing to our future the ability
21:45for these Technologies to be exponential
21:47right what we see today from private
21:49tier might not be what it is in five
21:51years or 50 years and I had the
21:54privilege of talking to Alex yesterday
21:55and he told me this story about you from
21:58the very very early days where when you
22:00were younger you basically told your dad
22:02Hey Dad I want to have a computer
22:04someday and he said because at this time
22:06this is true he said you're crazy
22:07computers cost as much as a house and
22:09you told him well Dad I'll live in an
22:11apartment and you seem to really really
22:13just want a computer at that time
22:16um to your point earlier starting Apple
22:18was not about building one of the
22:20biggest businesses in the world it was
22:21wanting a computer and wanting other
22:24I'm curious just to know from a personal
22:26perspective what did you see back then
22:28was it truly just like a personal need
22:30for this device or I want to you know
22:33dig into that early woz brain and and
22:35hear your perspective on what was going
22:37on in those early days a lot of great
22:39things come personally and I learned
22:41even I taught middle school and
22:42Elementary School for eight years
22:44straight full time full time like every
22:46hour of the day up to seven days a week
22:48no press allowed so it's not a big story
22:50but I learned that it was less important
22:52that you're speaking facts and knowledge
22:54from your mouth knowledge with less
22:55importance than the motivation of my
22:57students to learn had to find ways to
23:00make it fun to make it understandable to
23:02make it um you know like stories that
23:04tell what's in their head and that's
23:07when I decided you know what wanting
23:09something is even more important man I
23:10go back I wanted a computer it was in my
23:12heart and I didn't know if I ever ever
23:14get it I didn't know if designing
23:15computers would ever be a job for
23:17engineers because we were back in the
23:18analog days you know smart math stuff
23:21and but I kept it in me and eventually I
23:23found the path to do it so I was is
23:24building a computer for myself and
23:27turned out that the point in time luck
23:29is sometimes there's a lot of luck in
23:31business success and the point in time
23:32that I was going to build that computer
23:33no matter what it was worth turned out
23:35to be worth a ton and you know and then
23:37a lot of times when people are
23:39successful in technology I've seen them
23:41look off into space because we almost
23:42all come from science backgrounds and
23:44even when we when Apple went public
23:48um our president Mike Scott maybe 81 or
23:51um started a little company with some
23:52people I even I funded into that he's a
23:54friend and actually we did a launch of a
23:57rocket from out at Sea from somewhere so
24:00I don't know there were a bunch of
24:01Rocket Engineers around saying it is
24:03possible to do with let's say money now
24:06governments have all the resources you
24:08know but they're stale in their
24:09approaches because of it here's what we
24:11can do very successfully very stably we
24:13know we'll get there if we put enough
24:15money in and test enough and Private
24:18Industry works so differently I've only
24:20been in private and I just love having
24:22ideas and thinking about them and you
24:24know thinking different and the
24:26creativity that comes about when you
24:27think my gosh I could do something they
24:29haven't done before or maybe the
24:31resources are cheaper the sorts of huge
24:33Computing devices are cheaper to make
24:35and maybe certain types of motors and I
24:37can do something that hasn't been done
24:39before sensors that didn't exist before
24:41and let's you gotta always shoot for the
24:44top being you know one of the leaders in
24:45the world and that's just how we think
24:47so a lot of times when I think of
24:49government versus private I also come
24:51down to types of people which is very
24:53important and you have an inventor who
24:55could be given a job and they've gone
24:57through all the the right they have the
24:59right skill sets and they've gone
25:00through the right University you know
25:02majors and phds and and uh and they're
25:05an engineer and they can design what you
25:06sign them but then there's the inventor
25:08the inventor goes along thinks oh my
25:10gosh is there something I'm interested
25:12in that I could do and would it work and
25:14maybe it hasn't been done before and can
25:16I make a different make a difference in
25:18the world and the inventor wants to run
25:20into a laboratory hook up some demos
25:22real quick try to get some sort of pro
25:24prototype to show that the idea is good
25:26is right and that's the sort of person I
25:29am it's in your personality you don't
25:31change it you don't just say tomorrow
25:32I'm going to be an inventor today I'm an
25:33engineer you're usually one or the other
25:35so um it's that's that's another
25:38advantage of Alex you know putting
25:40together privateers we're looking for
25:42the inventor types you know yeah
25:44definitely I mean another word sometimes
25:46people use for inventor is visionary and
25:49I'm curious in the early days when you
25:51were just out of passion creating these
25:54could you see the path to today of
25:57course you can't picture everything with
25:59so many advancements since those early
26:01days but like how far along were you
26:04actually envisioning and I'm asking this
26:06partially because even if we apply this
26:08to space a lot of the things that people
26:10talk about in the realm of space Also
26:12sound kind of like science fiction right
26:14they probably won't be eventually but
26:16I'm trying to understand also how you
26:18how far along you see or the
26:20extrapolation that maybe goes on in your
26:22brain when you're originally talking
26:23about yes a computer with 200
26:25transistors and now we're talking
26:26billions and and the applications that
26:28have kind of sprung from that I myself I
26:31was really a great engineer in certain
26:33field and I was designing the hottest
26:34products in the world for Hewlett
26:36Packard without even having a college
26:37degree yet and then you have you talk
26:39about Visionary Vision see in the future
26:42uh that's different than invention
26:44though inventor really wants to actually
26:45go in and create something today that
26:47didn't exist and not have a vision
26:49that's 50 years out or 10 years out
26:51because that's science fiction a lot and
26:53everybody can talk about and say later
26:54on see I proposed it but it was possible
26:57to do with money and the engineer says
26:59feet on the ground what can I actually
27:00do and build and deliver to people when
27:03we started Apple you know we had a great
27:05product it was going to be all the
27:06revenues of Apple for the first 10 years
27:07but we had such a we had a great lead
27:09and we were comfortable we could do what
27:11we wanted but the amount of memory that
27:15costs you know we were back in the days
27:17of tape it cost about a million dollars
27:19a good fraction of a million dollars do
27:21you think we saw today where you have
27:23advice in your hand with a thousand
27:26um no Steve Jobs was very instrumental
27:29in always taking us do what we can do
27:31today try to do something a little more
27:33tomorrow a little more and we you can
27:35have a lot of failures too if you'll
27:36have one great product bringing in the
27:38revenues but the whole idea was we'll
27:39move towards the future and we'll be a
27:41part of it and we'll be in with it and
27:43after all you look back and it was kind
27:44of invisible the steps we took but they
27:46all led to today and then there was some
27:49um you know some of that invention stuff
27:51we got to Steve Jobs's Apple II was
27:54really the iPod music music and uh and
27:58that was the first time oh my gosh up
28:00till then our company valuation was the
28:02same as the old Apple two days and then
28:04all of a sudden we sold it to everyone
28:05in the world and our sales doubled and
28:07our profits doubled and the board gave
28:09Steve Williams and stock options and jet
28:11airplanes that was the turning point and
28:14then the iPhone was even better better
28:16and it was based on the iPod not the
28:18reverse not a phone it will include an
28:20iPhone more like it's an iPod but you
28:22get a phone with it and so it's hard to
28:24say that you really see the future more
28:26than a year ahead when you're working a
28:28year ahead on your projects whenever I
28:30tried to see the future a year ahead I
28:32knew it one year ahead because I was
28:33working on it if I look two years ahead
28:35made some guesses oh my gosh other
28:37aspects other Technologies and all came
28:39out of from outer space and people's
28:41desire which way they wanted to go was
28:43different it's very hard to predict even
28:45two years ahead successfully the way I
28:47work nowadays we got huge big companies
28:49so it's kind of like you know anything
28:50that work on is going to be successful
28:52it's not it's not as much a it's not as
28:55much of a gamble but you know the real
28:57real inventors like to gamble like to
28:59prove the world that they can do more
29:01than you ever imagined our second clip
29:03with the Privateer team is with the
29:04other two co-founders Chief scientist Dr
29:06marbaja and CEO Alex Fielding here they
29:10talk about the problem of space
29:11pollution but also the impact that space
29:14has here on Earth and the challenge of
29:15space governance an issue that's
29:17becoming more and more important as
29:19lower Earth orbit becomes more crowded
29:21but also more vital we as humans have
29:24started to pollute air land the ocean
29:28and now it sounds like we're doing the
29:30same with space but for some reason
29:32reason it seems like most people know
29:34about the pollution in air ocean land
29:38why don't we know more about the
29:40pollution happening in space well I
29:42think that uh you know most people they
29:44just aren't aware of how many satellites
29:46we have launched the fact that most of
29:48the stuff that we launched just doesn't
29:50come back where it takes a really really
29:52long time to come back if it's in the
29:54sufficiently low earth orbit also people
29:56just haven't had a place to just go
29:58online and just kind of see the stuff
30:00and you know now that we have Privateer
30:02of rolled out wayfinder we're just like
30:05a click away from uh people seeing all
30:07these dots uh you know all around the
30:09earth I know you originally created
30:11something called astrograph and I heard
30:13you say on an interview that actually
30:15seeing the amount of stuff some of it
30:18being valuable some of it being junk
30:20actually caused you to cry because it
30:23was so I guess devastating or maybe
30:25let's hear from your words why did that
30:27trigger that kind of emotion and seeing
30:29that my career started at NASA's Egypt
30:31propulsion lab on Mars missions but when
30:33I moved to Maui in 2006 I started
30:37working with the Air Force research lab
30:38with the telescopes on top of Mount
30:40Haleakala and all of a sudden at that
30:42time in 2006 there were only 1 200
30:46working satellites and 26 000 pieces of
30:49garbage and I'm like what like this
30:52doesn't make any sense holy cow like
30:54this is ridiculous how is that how is it
30:56okay for like 96 of the stuff that we
31:00put in space to turn out to be garbage
31:03like we don't see that in other domains
31:05we don't we don't have as acceptable
31:07okay we're gonna put a bunch of stuff
31:09out here on the land but 96 of the stuff
31:12we're gonna put out is going to be trash
31:13like we don't do that Alex I want to
31:15hear from you how much space debris are
31:17we talking sounds like it has increased
31:20with time but I don't know if many
31:22people have a sense of the sheer
31:24magnitude of stuff up above us so we're
31:26talking about over a million pieces of
31:29debris that are smaller than a
31:30centimeter but the only thing I we can
31:32really see from ground-based radar stuff
31:34that's bigger than the size of a
31:36softball so you know when when morba
31:38says there's these 26 000 things or you
31:40know whatever that that number is
31:42precisely those are things the size of a
31:45softball doing roughly 18 000 miles an
31:48and you know MV squared still MV squared
31:51so it's it's a real problem because the
31:55little pieces of debris the things you
31:57can't see can really hurt you in space
31:59you wouldn't get on a passenger jet if
32:03you got told when you boarded the plane
32:04there's a million little bullets flying
32:06around and this is going to make your
32:08life potentially very miserable we just
32:10don't know hope you make it like that
32:13would be yeah but that's kind of what's
32:15going on with space flight the first
32:16challenge is you have to be able to see
32:18everything so that we can put together a
32:19plan on how to solve for that and
32:22astroograph wayfinder these are tools to
32:25help Enlighten the world and kind of
32:28bring attention to the problem first so
32:30that we can all align on what the best
32:32Solutions are for cleaning up space
32:35which is kind of one side of private
32:37series mission of making space safe and
32:39accessible for humankind and I want to
32:42get to how we solve the problem but I
32:44also want to speak a little bit to what
32:46is at stake here so you're talking about
32:48about thousands of things that we can
32:50monitor but potentially millions that we
32:53aren't able to monitor
32:55how often does this stuff actually
32:56Collide and then also how often does
33:00us on Earth whether it be things
33:02actually coming down to earth or
33:04impacting the satellites or
33:06infrastructure that we use on Earth up
33:08there in space I mean there's a lot of
33:10collisions right and there's some that
33:12we actually can see and we can clearly
33:14identify that was caused by debris or or
33:16even in the case of a satellite hitting
33:19an active satellite or vice versa or you
33:22know two objects in nearered space
33:23colliding it happens a lot more than we
33:26would like to think and there's also
33:27reasons why we don't talk about it as a
33:29community why we don't just openly talk
33:31about our our problems in the space
33:33Community the way that we would in other
33:34academic communities or places where
33:37we're more data driven and some of that
33:39actually surrounds liability and risk as
33:41an example many insurance policies in
33:43space on the Riders exclude space debris
33:47from a covered loss I'm not saying that
33:49people do it I'm probably implying it
33:52but if your insurance policy said we
33:55don't cover things hitting your car
33:57windshield that are rocks then whatever
33:59cracked your car windshield is probably
34:02so these are these are challenges we're
34:05also working around which is the
34:07evolution of space policy and the space
34:09act and treaties evolving these things
34:12were based in maritime law uh and I
34:14guess that kind of made sense for the
34:16time because we needed a framework for
34:18how we interoperate in space but that is
34:21actually creating a challenge because we
34:23don't have even the simplest Notions of
34:26like right of way or you're in space
34:29you're going to come very close to
34:30colliding with someone else's object
34:32whether it's dead or alive who's who's
34:33got the right away well I mean obviously
34:35if it's dead you better move but if
34:38you're both active who's got the right
34:41away these are very simple constructs on
34:43the ground you wouldn't get in your car
34:44and not know that but in space we're
34:47operating in the blind we don't have
34:49these rules fully defined as a community
34:51and yet we keep launching more and more
34:53things without solving those
34:56speaking of space next up is crisp power
34:58founder and CEO of Hadrian an advanced
35:00Manufacturing Company making Precision
35:02components Hadrian is also building the
35:05next generation of factories to
35:06accelerate the pace of American
35:07manufacturing and in this clip Chris
35:10goes into why the American Advanced
35:12manufacturing industry is so fragile and
35:14the repercussions that could occur if we
35:16don't start taking action to fix it I've
35:19actually heard you use the term
35:20dangerous when you when you speak to the
35:23point that we're at in in terms of this
35:27this Pipeline and this particular space
35:29of advanced manufacturing and so you
35:32know if someone's listening they might
35:33be like okay a bunch of people are
35:34retiring some people are not very keen
35:37on the idea of us continuing to pursue
35:40space but would you say you know to to
35:42the average person like what's at stake
35:43here what are we going to lose if these
35:46people retire and we don't have these
35:48things documented unless we solve this
35:50problem I think the country and you know
35:54our way of life is is a central risk and
35:57the analogy I give to people is if
36:00you're living in a small town or
36:01something like that you know we've built
36:03up 200 layers of abstractions in society
36:05so that like you can be an artist or you
36:08can be a painter or like you know you
36:10can be in finance or in crypto or you
36:13know making video games or whatever
36:15happens to be and the reality of the
36:16world is that you know 200 years ago you
36:19know we were killing each other over
36:20food and like it's a it's a miracle in
36:23the first place that we're here and that
36:25you know Society is relatively stable
36:26and like the roads get paid people
36:28forget because they grow up in America
36:29that it's so successful that like you
36:32know they don't have to worry about
36:33having a bulletproof car otherwise if
36:35you have more than like a hundred
36:36thousand dollar net worth someone in the
36:38game might try and steal your daughter
36:39which for the rest of the world is like
36:43um but because you know America is so
36:45isolated culturally you know most
36:48Americans view of geopolitics is Russia
36:50bad you don't learn those lessons and as
36:51a younger person you don't realize that
36:53you know unless we quote unquote keeps
36:55keep the roads paved like this can all
36:57fall over you know very very quickly so
36:59if you run the scenario of saying okay
37:02right now basically we are successful
37:05because you know we are the world's
37:07police and whether we should play that
37:08role or not is is obviously Up For
37:10Debate but the reality is is that we are
37:13fine culturally because everyone
37:14understands that if you with
37:16America we will you know put a missile
37:19over your head and you're dead um or if
37:21we go into a great power conflict we
37:23have enough Logistics and infrastructure
37:24to go and win that conflict you're
37:26released be scary enough that conflict
37:28never exists in the first place and the
37:30analogy I like to tell people is
37:32you know bar fights happen when both
37:35people mispredict their ability to win
37:36the fight and bar fights don't happen
37:39for three you know two reasons one is
37:41there's two UFC fighters you know
37:43staring down each other and they both
37:45know the cost of a conflict and what if
37:47the other person is scary so that fight
37:48never happens or there's a bunch of
37:51morons but there's a bouncer and like
37:52he's big and scary enough that like the
37:54conflict never happens in the first
37:56um but that construct of a bar fight
37:59relies on Impressions and kind of social
38:02trade-offs that like hey enough people
38:04have seen their friend getting beaten up
38:06by a bouncer so I'm probably not going
38:08to even test that assumption that this
38:10is a real thing now the reality of
38:12course is that most police officers and
38:14most bouncers you know are probably
38:16incompetent can probably get taken out
38:18by someone relatively competent as a
38:20civilian but you know we have enough uh
38:23social construct around the concept that
38:24that is a really dumb idea that no one
38:27wants to take the risk and it's what I
38:30describe it in defense land is it's a
38:32lethality Mirage you know lethality
38:33Mirage is basically you know everyone
38:36else's impression of you is that you're
38:37a 10 out of 10 lethal so they're
38:38absolutely not going to with you
38:40and then maybe you lose one small
38:42conflict and someone goes well hold on
38:44like maybe these guys aren't so scary as
38:46we thought they were
38:48um and in reality I think we're about a
38:50a three out of ten and the real danger
38:53comes when you know a great power
38:57finds out before you find out that
38:59you're actually a three out of ten so
39:01the problem with everyone thinking
39:02Advanced manufacturing is in a really
39:05good place is that we don't go fix the
39:07problem you know because culturally
39:08everyone thinks it's fine you know the
39:10roads are getting paved fighter jets get
39:12made you know we're going to a conflict
39:14for fun in reality we're probably so far
39:17away from doing that that if we have one
39:19conflict with China where we expend most
39:22of our ballistics inventory we might not
39:24be able to remake it for like five years
39:25then we're basically standing around you
39:27know with our hands tied behind our
39:29backs and finally we have Ryan Peterson
39:31founder and Coco flexport the full
39:33service Global Logistics and Freight
39:35forwarding platform worth eight billion
39:37dollars after its latest round of
39:39now Ryan has a bird's eye view of the
39:41Global Freight industry and understands
39:43the complexity of the supply chain
39:44better than almost anyone so in our
39:46final clip he breaks down the massive
39:48impact that e-commerce has had on the
39:49supply chain and the need for companies
39:51to adapt to customers changing Behavior
39:53what have you seen as the impact really
39:56of e-commerce and the internet on on the
39:59supply chain and on how it works yeah
40:00well I think you want to start with the
40:02with the customers with all of us and
40:04the internet has really put us us you
40:06and me and everybody else out there in
40:08charge in a way that we've never seen
40:11um that the world you know in the in the
40:13era of mass media companies
40:16only would run a television ad
40:19for whatever product they were selling
40:21and then they would just kind of pump
40:23that down in your throat and they only
40:25needed to have a limited number of skus
40:27whatever was on television basically
40:28customers didn't have a lot of choice
40:30they could buy this you know the
40:31Energizer or the Duracell and there were
40:33two choices for web battery and there
40:35happened to be in the stores and you and
40:37so you the brands were in control those
40:39who could afford mass media were in
40:41control now with the internet there's
40:44just like a million choices you have
40:46every kind of possible brand of battery
40:48that's out there a battery is probably a
40:49weird case but still right for every
40:51product category there's a million
40:53choices everybody's unique you can get
40:55the thing that matches your own personal
40:58um you were in charge as well in that
41:01they better have that product now you're
41:04not willing to wait a week like in the
41:06series catalog you're uh you can order
41:08and you get it in three weeks well
41:10you're gonna go out of business if you
41:11can't deliver you know it's becoming
41:14two-hour delivery delivery like if you
41:15can't deliver two hours
41:17um and so that is a very different
41:19supply chain and what's happened is
41:22companies that haven't been able to run
41:23a supply chain that's that responsive
41:24that can have many a wider assortment of
41:28choices because we're all unique and we
41:30want our choices and and and have it
41:33sort of edge cached to use an internet
41:36analogy like a CDN like you want to have
41:38these Goods like close to the customer
41:40so that it can get there really really
41:41fast the old world you could have one
41:44Distribution Center in the middle of the
41:45United States and distribute out to your
41:48store network from there uh but it
41:50didn't have to be like super responsive
41:52to customer demand customer demand was
41:53pretty predictable kind of always bought
41:55the same number of these batteries or
41:57whatever product uh and and it was it
41:59didn't have to be very agile the modern
42:01world all of a sudden
42:03there's this proliferation of Brands and
42:05it all has to be stored close to the
42:07edges so custom so Brands need to have
42:08multiple fulfillment centers uh you need
42:11about five fulfillment centers to get
42:13two-day delivery Nationwide and you need
42:15probably to do next day it's more like
42:1816 fulfillment centers and you want to
42:20do same day well you need one in almost
42:22every ZIP code right uh if you want to
42:24have two hour delivery so that's a
42:27really really different configuration of
42:28supply chain and now
42:30um you want to be able to get to that
42:32world where you're doing same day or
42:34next day delivery you now need to load
42:36balance your inventory because if you
42:37put too much inventory out there and it
42:39doesn't sell you're going to go bankrupt
42:41right you're sitting on all this working
42:43capital it's inventory that's not
42:44earning a return too little and you lose
42:47the customer and they'll never come back
42:49right they buy your competitors brand
42:50and so that's the fundamental problem
42:52and these Logistics teams don't even
42:54really at the typical brand don't even
42:56really know that that's the problem
42:57they're solving they're they're just
43:00still used to a world where all they
43:02care about is the price of freight yeah
43:04and they want to buy the cheapest rate
43:05and that's what they think their job is
43:07when their job has become how do I
43:09ensure a customer experience how do I
43:12enable our sales and marketing to have
43:15the product in stock
43:16uh so that they can win those customers
43:18be a growth engine and a customer
43:20experience engine and then how do they
43:22Empower their CFO yeah to not sit on too
43:26um and so it's a really different
43:27proposition and frankly most of the
43:30that that we grew up with these iconic
43:33brands have been going bankrupt left and
43:35right if you Google retail apocalypse
43:38just look like the number of companies
43:41that have failed that are iconic brands
43:43that we grew up with it's really sad
43:45actually um and I don't think it has to
43:47be that way so one of our we kind of
43:49have dual purpose here one is help the
43:51new age of Brands rise up and not need
43:54to hire this big Logistics supply chain
43:55team who just pushes paper and you know
43:59just all they care about is the price of
44:01freight but actually it's empowered to
44:02solve these problems without hiring a
44:04big team because you don't need it
44:05anymore you kind of Outsource that to
44:07um that's that's one aspect of what we
44:09do we help these small businesses grow
44:10really fast without the bureaucracy the
44:12other is how do you help these
44:13Enterprise Brands these famous companies
44:15transform themselves for world of
44:17e-commerce and not die and I think that
44:20both of these are really important
44:21missions all right that's it that sums
44:23up our best of 2022 episode but remember
44:26there's a lot more where those clips
44:27came from so if a particular guest
44:29sparked your interest go ahead and
44:31listen to their full episode and if you
44:32are on YouTube we've linked the full
44:34playlist at the end of this video
44:36and I just want to say a quick thank you
44:38for watching and listening as we revamp
44:40this podcast and we truly aren't just
44:42getting started so don't forget to tune
44:44in next year and leave your guest or
44:47topic suggestions in the comments below
44:49we truly can't wait to continue tackling
44:51the most important questions within
44:53technology with you and the people on
44:55the front lines building it we'll see
45:00thanks for listening to the a16z podcast
45:02if you like this episode don't forget to
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