00:07and welcome this is Mary Ellen micle
00:09with your Friday afternoon mem Edge show
00:14as always this is the show where we show
00:16you where the action is in the broader
00:20markets and that rotation we've been
00:22talking about here recently is
00:24continuing to shape up a bit we are
00:26going to take a look at areas of the
00:29market that are continuing to weaken
00:31relative to areas that are coming into
00:34favor as always it's with an eye toward
00:37helping you uncover where that relative
00:40strength is so that you can participate
00:43in that strength and then equally
00:45important if we see continued weaknesses
00:48in areas and industries that are coming
00:50under selling pressure you want to make
00:52sure you're not overweighted in those
00:55areas but first up let's take a look at
00:57some of the news that drove price action
00:59last week we did get some very key
01:01inflation data closely watched first up
01:05was Consumer Price Index CPI data came
01:08out earlier in the week and surprisingly
01:11it came in above estimates now I will
01:13tell you on that Wednesday investors
01:16were rather nonchalant about that report
01:19that came out we did see an uptick in
01:21interest rates a little bit however
01:23however also on Wednesday we got very
01:26strong numbers from heavyweight software
01:28name Oracle which did give those AI
01:31names a boost hence the counterbalance
01:34relative to that high inflation as the
01:36week progressed on Thursday we got
01:38further inflation data PPI producer
01:42price index that also came in above
01:44estimates and that was enough to in fact
01:49have the markets pull back we'll get
01:50into all of that as we move forward also
01:52talk about some of the groups that are
01:54going to be more heavily impacted by
01:56interest rates both to the upside and
01:59the down side also we did see retail
02:02sales numbers coming in and they did
02:05post the largest increase since
02:07September so we are seeing continued
02:09strength there with this recent earning
02:11season we're seeing a bit of wobbliness
02:13in the group but overall strength in
02:15some of these retailers and next week
02:18the Federal Reserves meeting fomc
02:21meeting will take place most important
02:23there is going to be on Wednesday with
02:26the Fed chair Pals speaking and giving
02:30comments as far as what was discussed
02:32and their outlook on interest rates so
02:34be on the lookout for that from here
02:37let's go ahead and take a look at those
02:39markets and see where did we close for
02:43week and here we are this is a daily
02:45price chart of the S&P 500 now this
02:49broader index really was flat for the
02:52week but it did decline just enough to
02:57get this index back below that 10day
02:59simple moving mov average I'm on the
03:00lookout for this 21 day next area of
03:05possible support we can see we had this
03:07pull back in late February where it
03:09continued to find support we will want
03:11that of course to take place at this
03:14time because this next key area is the
03:1850-day simple moving average and it is
03:21quite a distance below also key is going
03:23to be staying on top of these momentum
03:26indicators RSI above 50 trending low but
03:30still in positive territory likewise
03:32with the Mac D so this support coupled
03:36with those momentum indicators keeps the
03:38S&P 500 in a confirmed uptrend little
03:42bit of a different story with the NASDAQ
03:460.7% for the week we did close just
03:50below that 21-day simple moving average
03:53keeping an eye of course on that RSI it
03:56is very close to potentially turning
03:59negative also when you're looking at
04:01these broader markets similar to
04:03individual stocks pay attention to that
04:06volume if we see high volume on days
04:09where a given index or stock closes in
04:12the lower range of its trading range on
04:15that day and you also want to keep in
04:17mind those momentum indicators it will
04:19be very telling by way of considering
04:23that to be distribution so let's go
04:25ahead and look beyond the broader
04:27markets we want to stay on top of these
04:29bigger broader sectors so we're looking
04:32at the 11 S&P 500 sectors and I've gone
04:36ahead and added an RSI indicator sorted
04:40the sectors in relative strength RSI and
04:43it's a twomon daily price chart View and
04:46let's take a look this is not the first
04:49week that energy is up here at the
04:51Forefront XLE couple of factors this
04:55week having to do with Supply demand
04:57issues less Supply in oil and then also
05:01Ukraine did go ahead and bomb some of
05:06the oil refineries in Russia so couple
05:09of factors there as to why we are seeing
05:11energy move higher we'll take a look at
05:13the price of oil in our next segment and
05:15then I will share with you a couple of
05:17stocks it's an area that can no longer
05:19be ignored so first up here also at the
05:23forfront we can see basic materials
05:26financials and Industrials so these tend
05:30to be cyclical areas of the market that
05:33are continuing to Bubble Up to the
05:36Forefront we also want to be aware of
05:39that relative weakness and let's take a
05:41look technology down here in that lower
05:44cortile again this week down
05:460.8% you can see waffling around at that
05:5050 with the RSI now when you're looking
05:52at these sectors it's going to be
05:54critical to be aware of the heaviest
05:56weightings particularly when looking at
05:58tech let's take a quick look at
06:01xlc and both of these are areas that
06:04have a mega cap formerly known as Fang
06:07stocks at the Forefront as far as their
06:10Holdings taking up as much as 40% with
06:13tech it's going to be apple and
06:15Microsoft but there is weakness
06:18elsewhere we'll get into that as we move
06:20through here but overall we can see that
06:24there is a bit of mve movement with
06:26Healthcare losing near super near term
06:30it's uptrend here with deterioration and
06:33then a momentum with this macd trending
06:36downward let's go ahead and move through
06:38take a look Beyond these broader sectors
06:40and really get your arms around strength
06:43relative to weakness beneath the surface
06:46first up xhb this is the home builders
06:48and really what you want to note here is
06:51the fact that the group was up here at
06:53the Forefront up about a half of a
06:55percent but this is in a rising interest
06:58rate environment in other words
07:00investors are more focused on the growth
07:03Outlook in my em Edge twice weekly
07:06report we have the top performing home
07:09builder and it remains in a nice uptrend
07:13so let's take a look we talked about
07:14interest rates on the Move higher this
07:17view with these ETFs also is relative so
07:20strength to weakness and here we are
07:22this is on Thursday's PPI report you can
07:25see we're looking now at the yield on
07:28the 10year Trad treasury so we did see
07:31an uptick throughout the week we are now
07:354.3% on that yield and I've mentioned
07:38many times that 4% level is a benchmark
07:42we were very close to dipping below that
07:44but not the case over the last couple of
07:47weeks you can see the momentum shift
07:49here taking place and higher rates not
07:53good for the broader markets and most
07:55notably one of the more negatively
07:57impacted areas is going to be software
08:00this is IG GV the software ETF and I
08:04talked about Wednesday's Oracle earnings
08:07pushing the group higher we had another
08:10heavyweight name that reported today I'm
08:13going to share that with you because you
08:14would do want to be aware of it big
08:16heavyweight software name but also AI
08:19related so we can see software back in
08:23negative near-term downtrend also of
08:27note IW M and this particular area this
08:32is small cap stocks had been holding in
08:34really quite well but this year I mean
08:382% we can see this momentum potentially
08:41shifting negatively this is one
08:44indication of a more riskof environment
08:48within the broader markets let's take a
08:51look at another area that can be very
08:53exemplary as far as investor confidence
08:56risk tolerance and here we are with IBB
08:59the biotechnology ETF coming under
09:03selling pressure breaking key support
09:06another indication that investors are
09:09pulling in their horns a bit here and
09:12taking a bit of a more cautionary stance
09:16and like taking a look at other areas
09:18semiconductors pulled back last week
09:21this was a very mixed group overall
09:264% among these uh Nvidia was able to
09:31withstand that we're going to take a
09:33look at Nvidia let's go ahead and do
09:35that right now and then I can cycle into
09:38some of these other key areas I want to
09:40share with you but what we are looking
09:42at with Nvidia here is the stock holding
09:46in relatively well and we all know why
09:49they have already announced their growth
09:51prospects new products and they are
09:55pretty much the clear-cut leader in the
09:58semiconductor space and we can see
10:00despite a pullback a dip below this
10:0210day their momentum is still very much
10:05in positive territory do a pause because
10:09those of you that have not potentially
10:11gotten into the stock this type of view
10:15here of course is ideally when you want
10:17to enter this this turnaround took place
10:20in the beginning of January of this year
10:23I highlighted it to my subscribers as we
10:26were coming out of this period of
10:29consolidation into this nice uptrend so
10:32ideally we're on the lookout for a nice
10:35period of consolidation even a bit of a
10:39pullback before we can see Nvidia resume
10:43its uptrend of note is on Monday Nvidia
10:47is going to be holding their annual
10:49conference and it will be all about AI
10:53there will be some keynote speakers as
10:56far as other companies so from here I
10:58will share with you one of the
11:01presenters that Nvidia it's a company
11:03they are invested in it's a small cap
11:07name if you're not aware of it I would
11:09say keep your eye on this name s o u n
11:12AI related voice recognition tool and
11:17you can see that the stock has had a
11:19very good week it was up
11:2252% and that could have forgiven a lot
11:24of sins among some of these other names
11:26that have pulled back but it is still
11:28very much in and uptrend and they'll be
11:31speaking at that conference next week
11:34now from here what I did also want to
11:36share with you is a closer view at these
11:39Mega cap names because we are seeing a
11:42bit of waffling as it relates to those
11:44that have been in the Forefront and are
11:47moving down into this weaker cortile
11:50here we just reviewed Nvidia let's take
11:53a look at Microsoft they had a good week
11:56this week relative certainly to the
11:58markets and elsewhere up 2 and 1 12%
12:01yesterday we saw this nice space
12:03breakout nice macd crossover you
12:06wouldn't know what was going on
12:07elsewhere they are going to be speaking
12:09on Monday at the Nvidia conference and
12:12then moving down through these areas
12:14that have been weak of note is the fact
12:18that alphabet came back into its own
12:234.3% we can see this black line up
12:25through the red indicating a possible
12:27new uptrend I will want to see that D
12:29get up above that net neutral area and
12:32remain above this key 50-day simple
12:36moving average and that from my work
12:39would confirm that alphabet has in fact
12:42entered a new uptrend one last area I do
12:46want to share with you actually a couple
12:48of things that you can very quickly get
12:51to with stockcharts.com this is that
12:54initial interface page and I know each
12:56of you are going to have it set up a bit
12:58differently but already set up here are
13:01various views relative to in this case
13:04the various Equity markets and we can
13:07also take a look at yields with this
13:10view on the bond green we talked about
13:12the yield on that 10year increasing
13:14let's take a look at crypto because it
13:17has gotten hit and this is another
13:19indication of a risk off appetite and
13:23from here what you can do is highlight
13:26cryptocurrencies click this chart part
13:29and you will see a view now we're
13:32looking at a daily most of the damage if
13:35I may for this week was today it was
13:37down almost 5% but you can see that we
13:39were in an overbought position and as
13:43long as we are up here at this Forefront
13:46interface page I'm going to share a
13:48couple of other items of note and I've
13:50done this in the past where when you're
13:51looking at in this case I have the S&P
13:55500 today those names that were up the
13:58most on the S&P and just a quick glance
14:01if you're familiar enough with the
14:02broader markets you'll see a bit of a
14:04theme stld nue both Metals stocks and
14:10we're going to take a look at
14:12stld and we'll get back to this list
14:15again so what I wanted to highlight to
14:17you here is stld broke out of a base
14:22today and the reason is because St LD
14:27pre-announced their earnings they're
14:29looking for a relatively strong
14:32quarterly earnings and sales we can see
14:35this macd crossover but take a look at
14:37that volume on that base breakout the
14:40stock definitely appears to have more
14:42upside near term keep your eye on that
14:46entry point it is a bit stretched but
14:48let's go ahead back to our view here and
14:53also take a look at another stock here
14:56that is up here at the Forefront
14:58actually two two different names and
15:00that is is srg and w a t again on the
15:04lookout for themes we talked about
15:06Metals these two stocks are in the
15:10medical products space intuitive
15:12surgical of course the robotic uh
15:15surgical device team and you can see
15:18this nice move back into an uptrend and
15:22W is also another Medical Products stock
15:27that had pulled back very LLY to its
15:2921-day simple moving average with its
15:32momentum staying positive so that is the
15:34kind of activity that you can quickly
15:37uncover with very simply looking at
15:40those not names that are up the most but
15:42let's take a look at the opposite and
15:45this is something you'll want to do it
15:46takes a matter of minutes because this
15:49too will provide hints and clues as to
15:51potential Group movement so let's look
15:54here at the Forefront I talked about
15:56that major software company came out
15:59with earnings dropped almost 14% And
16:02this is Adobe Systems a
16:05dbe and similar to Oracle the advance
16:09periodically this is going back to when
16:11Nvidia had that big explosive move they
16:14did have some wonderful products they're
16:16Aid driven relative to their Graphics
16:19but take a look earnings big drop huge
16:23volume and everything to do with
16:26competition relative to one of their
16:28primary products but these kind of moves
16:31will then permeate elsewhere in the
16:34markets I showed you what happened to
16:36the software group overall and then
16:39today some of those related names that
16:42are in AI let's take a look at another
16:45big decliner and that is jab
16:48JBL and it is indicative of what we've
16:50been seeing elsewhere where stocks that
16:52are what I call price for Perfection
16:54sitting up here at a high come in with
16:57numbers that are not perfect and the
17:0216% from here I'll share with you a
17:05couple of other names because oftentimes
17:07they're in that same group that sold off
17:10in sympathy and that is a common
17:13occurrence because IND investors are
17:15going to suggest that you will see
17:18deterioration elsewhere in the group
17:21fleex a direct competitor of JBL and
17:25this stock had already been exhibiting
17:27weakness appear at highs and this is
17:30what did begin last week we have any
17:33number of names I'm just going to segue
17:36out to a different group entirely but
17:38Modine a lot of these names that were up
17:41here and some of them are recovering
17:43from their pullbacks in a very orderly
17:46way you want to keep your eye on that
17:48RSI but not so with the names such as
17:51fleex and then when a competing company
17:55comes in with weak numbers the really
17:58RSI turns negative and is poised for
18:03further deterioration I did mention
18:06Energy stock so we'll take a couple of
18:08minutes here to take a look at some of
18:11the areas in there that are acting the
18:14best and I'll show you a name that has
18:16already come out of the gate if I may
18:19and this is Fang Diamondback is the name
18:22of the company this Gap up into a Bas
18:26breakout has everything to do with the
18:28company's merging and per purchase of
18:31another Energy company which now puts
18:35diamond back as one of the largest pure
18:39plays for those heran Basin energy
18:42providers and you can see it's still in
18:44a very nice confirmed uptrend so from
18:48here we can segue into other energy
18:50stocks that are also looking
18:53constructive and in that same permium
18:55base actually this is Philips 66 they
18:58are in a different space but let's take
19:00a look at the chart because what we have
19:02experienced here is a nice 2E base
19:05breakout into an uptrend very nice high
19:08volume shaping up there and then one
19:11last name that we can take a look at
19:14well known in the energy space and that
19:19cop gapping up all about that Supply
19:22demand a that's taking place and then
19:24also the increased price in oil from
19:27here I did fit fail to share with you
19:30view of the price of oil I use this
19:32Brent crude and you can see that we're
19:35up here at the 85 level which is
19:39relatively elevated for that price of
19:41oil so you're going to want to get more
19:43refined in your search than simply those
19:46that respond closely to the price of oil
19:49and get more into the Dynamics of these
19:52some of these companies and that's where
19:54I come into play that's what I do with
19:59wanted to share with you in the
20:01semiconductor space names that faltered
20:05the most and first up is mrvl they came
20:08out with their earnings last week
20:10another example priced for Perfection up
20:13here and the company disappointed a
20:15little bit but management was very
20:18bullish on growth in their AI division
20:21the markets looked the other way so when
20:24you see this break below that 50-day
20:26simple moving average coupled with
20:28negative RSI often times you can see and
20:32be on the lookout for further
20:34deterioration this recent low here in
20:37late February is going to be your next
20:39area of possible support so we can keep
20:42an eye on this stock as a proxy for
20:46semiconductors and everyone that's it
20:48for this week I hope you have a
20:50fantastic week and if you haven't
20:52already use that link below for a very
20:55low price price trial of my twice weekly
20:58mem Edge report we're going to get much
21:02deeper into these markets see where
21:04we're headed provide areas of support
21:07and resistance and make sure you have
21:10you're on top of these names that are
21:12poised to outperform have a great
21:14weekend see you here next
