00:00okay folks so tomorrow after close Mara
00:02stock is going to be reporting earnings
00:04and for context Mara's had a few insane
00:06quarters going from seven bucks to 31
00:08then dumping in half to $14.50 and then
00:11back up to a new high at
00:13$349 then dumpy dumpo back to
00:16$14.50 and now she's been trying to
00:18climb again and in today's video I want
00:20to explain whether or not you may start
00:22seeing Mara fill in this Gap to get back
00:24to last Cycle's highs today I'm going to
00:26give you the full breakdown and the only
00:28thing I ask in return is that you hit
00:29that ravy button and also don't forget
00:30to subscribe and of course as always if
00:33you're the one taking the risk you got
00:34to make sure that you're the one doing
00:35the ultimate Frisk okay so Mara lovely
00:38Mara what is Mara for the unacquainted
00:39well Mara is Marathon digital Holdings
00:41and she is one of the leading names in
00:43the Bitcoin mining industry known for
00:45her significant hash rates o got to love
00:47those hashes she's got and and
00:50operational efficiency and the context
00:51with Mara here is that she's invested
00:53tons and tons of money into making sure
00:56that she's competitive posst having as
00:58you know Network difficulty goes up and
01:00rewards go down over time so Bitcoin
01:02mining is going to increasingly become a
01:04win or take all situation but in order
01:06to understand Mar's pricing you got to
01:08understand bitcoin's pricing and what's
01:09going on there Bitcoin rallied huge into
01:12having which has indeed historically
01:13been the case and since it's been
01:15overall cooling down we've dropped about
01:1715% from highs now if you look at the
01:19historical data Bitcoin tends to go up
01:21not just before not just before but
01:24after having as well it doesn't usually
01:26go up immediately after having but
01:28overall within a month or to you start
01:30seeing the next wave of uptrending and
01:32if you look at this chart from coindesk
01:34it shows July 9th of the 2016 having
01:36cycle you had that having and then you
01:38had a selloff of about 28% over the next
01:41two weeks and then Bitcoin started
01:43slowly rising and towards new all-time
01:45highs you open up the chart I mean the
01:46selloff that you saw after that having
01:49ended up being the small little portion
01:51here when everybody was fear-mongering
01:52that Bitcoin was done forever and that
01:54having destroyed Bitcoin well the
01:56overall situation ended up being just
01:58this small little dumpy dumpo right here
02:01and it ended up going from having prices
02:03at 648 bucks to over 10K right over that
02:0610K line and it topped out around 19k
02:09keep in mind that this is a logarithmic
02:11chart so the magnitudes are a lot more
02:13extreme than meets the eye if you're
02:15just looking at this chart so anyways
02:16the point here is that it's not
02:18unprecedented to see a selloff in the
02:20immediate aftermath of having and then
02:21to see it pick up a few weeks or months
02:23later now obviously history doesn't have
02:25to repeat itself but it often Rhymes now
02:27the other thing I want you to keep in
02:28mind today with Bitcoin is from a
02:30technical standpoint you're going to
02:31need a pretty damn big breakout to fight
02:33off the Bears we are in a very
02:35aggressive downtrend and that can be a
02:37very self-fulfilling prophecy the longer
02:39it lasts folks we need to break out well
02:41over this upper trend line and even then
02:43markets aren't going to be convinced
02:45because last time we did that the stock
02:47price just immediately failed afterwards
02:49so you're looking at a breakout into the
02:51high 60s before markets are even
02:52convinced and can start on the track
02:54again to new all-time highs which we
02:57definitely could see this year but you
02:59need to start hitting these technical
03:01indications for markets to say hey we
03:03have enough elevating factors to
03:04motivate more positions towards the
03:06upside now you go over tomorrow and
03:07Mara's chart is diverging which is a
03:09very interesting thing Mara is not in a
03:12downward Channel right now she's in the
03:13beginning of an uptrending one and this
03:15Divergence from Bitcoin is only possible
03:17because when Bitcoin was going up Mara
03:19was selling off on company specific
03:21issues and now that Bitcoin is selling
03:23off some of these company specific
03:24issues are going away allowing for that
03:27Gap to close in a little bit now if Mara
03:29is going up at the same time that
03:31Bitcoin is downtrending imagine what
03:32would happen if Bitcoin starts going up
03:34again which again history suggests is
03:37likely to happen next I want to go
03:38through the short squeeze capabilities
03:40and the short squeeze setup here but
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04:28fractional shares short squeeze
04:30capabilities let's get back to Mar
04:31lovely Mar so crypto miners have a lot
04:33of large risk factors which makes them
04:35very very very easy shorts and shorts
04:38attacked Mara pretty damn aggressively
04:40during its downtrend its brutal
04:42downtrend and then during the Revival of
04:44Bitcoin well Mara totally punched them
04:47back in the face but anyway short
04:48interest right now is at around 20% 20%
04:51Short Selling you got to think about it
04:53as artificial dilution essentially
04:54creating shares that don't exist out of
04:56thin air and when you have some 1 of
04:59shares out there being artificially
05:01created by short sell and it creates the
05:02situation where if the stock jumps and
05:04shorts cover you could see somewhere
05:06around 20% of the trading float just all
05:08of a sudden up and disappear in a
05:11rebinding storm which could cause the
05:13price to go up a lot and that is a very
05:15very nice thing to see and in terms of
05:17the off exchange short volume ratio it's
05:19at about 42% what does that mean well
05:21often times short sellers like to play
05:22this little game where they'll go and
05:24they'll short something aggressively on
05:26the public market so that people can see
05:27the stock price dump and then they'll re
05:29buy back on the off exchanges so that
05:31people don't see the positive price
05:33increase but the thing is there's not
05:35unlimited liquidity there's not
05:36unlimited shares on the private market
05:38so the minute that all of a sudden a
05:40stock price starts rallying aggressively
05:42and it goes up 20 30 40 50 60% in a very
05:45short time span well what happens to
05:46these short sellers all of a sudden they
05:48have to rush to the public market in
05:49order to cover their short positions in
05:51order to buy back shares to close their
05:53short positions and that's when you get
05:55the beautiful short squeeze setup that
05:57said when there's big money involved be
05:58aware that there's big tricks involved
06:00it's very common hypothetically that
06:01you'll see hedge funds trade both sides
06:03of the move buying in at lows inducing
06:05retail traders to buy in as the price
06:07goes up and then dumping it highs and
06:09then shorting aggressively as media
06:11pumps out bad press releases focusing on
06:14nonsense pretty much the entire stock
06:16market is all a big trap to try to take
06:17your money so you got to make sure so
06:19you got to make sure that you're smart
06:20enough to protect yourself because
06:22you're not going to outsmart them but
06:24but you can outrun them and run home
06:26with your profits now I want to move on
06:28and talk about Mora the itself and
06:30recent progress they've made so take a
06:32look at this press report that came out
06:34a couple of weeks ago so Marathon
06:36digital Holdings increases 2024 hash
06:37rate target to 50x a hash now I'm a
06:40simple-minded guy I like to think of
06:42hash rate as horsepower on a car the
06:44more horsepower a car has the faster it
06:46can go and Bitcoin mining in that sense
06:47is like a big car race you have all
06:49these different Bitcoin mining companies
06:51all racing and in order to keep your
06:53place in line well you got to invest in
06:55having more and more horsepower because
06:57if everybody else is doing it well
06:58they're just going to pass and in order
07:00to gain ground you don't have to just
07:02invest to maintain your position but you
07:03have to invest even more than everybody
07:05else is doing so that you can gain
07:06ground on your competition and get more
07:08rewards get a bigger trophy AKA mine
07:10more Bitcoin so Mara started 2024 with a
07:12hash rate of 24.7 and their new Target
07:15is 50 and they've been making strategic
07:17Acquisitions to make this happen the CEO
07:20said quote given the amount of capacity
07:22we have available following our recent
07:23acquisitions and the amount of hash rate
07:25we have access to through current
07:26machine orders and options we now
07:28believe it is possible for us to double
07:30the scale of marathon's mining
07:32operations in 2024 and achieve 50x a
07:34hash by the end of the year now just to
07:37show you the trend of improvement and
07:38the success they've had if you look at
07:40the energized hash rate at the end of
07:42April they reported 29.9 a year ago is
07:44at 14 and again going back to the car
07:46racing analogy Mara needs to do this in
07:48order to maintain her dominance in the
07:50car race she has to invest enough to
07:52maintain her spot maintain her
07:54production levels but also invest even
07:56more to grow her production levels and
07:59Mara has gotten a lot of criticism for
08:01investing hand over fist and fist over
08:02hand in her infrastructure but you could
08:05see that it's paying off here and quite
08:06frankly I think these April numbers were
08:07a little bit low Mar had a little bit of
08:09a dip over February and there's a few
08:11little difficulties here and there and I
08:12think they're going to be watered out in
08:13the coming months so I actually think
08:15she gained even more ground than this if
08:17you look at the overall trend but we'll
08:18see some more information on that
08:20tomorrow so earnings they're coming out
08:21tomorrow what should we expect here well
08:24you got to understand that going into
08:25earnings Mara just got into the S&P
08:27small cap 600 which gives management
08:30some room to brag and talk about all the
08:31capital that might be allocating its way
08:34into tomorrow as more and more people
08:35wake up to the setup and if you look
08:37over at Zach Zach's investment they say
08:39the company's expected to report a
08:41166.25 year-over-year increase in post
08:44quarterly earnings per share and
08:58279.899 so q1 ended March 31st and the
09:01market kind of topped out March 31st so
09:04from that standpoint q1 should be
09:06incredibly solid but I believe that
09:07guidance is going to be a lot more
09:08cautious and that could be what really
09:10Spooks markets the management is looking
09:11at Bitcoin just like we're looking at
09:13Bitcoin and they can't say whether or
09:14not it's going to go up or down because
09:16that would be predicting and promising
09:17and they're going to get sued whether or
09:18not they believe Bitcoin is going to go
09:20up or down throughout the rest of the
09:21year I believe they're going to take a
09:22more cautious Eng guarded approach and
09:24well guidance might be a little bit low
09:26which could certainly freak out markets
09:28and of course as we know with the short
09:30squee setup it's very very easy for
09:32financial media to start pumping out
09:34negative PR about any sort of small line
09:37item on Mars's earnings and then all of
09:39a sudden retail's like okay well I
09:40believe what the financial media said so
09:42I have to I have to sell this and then
09:44of course a few months later when it's
09:45going back up they're going to be like
09:46okay time to buy and the short sellers
09:48have now flipped the script but the
09:49point here is it's very very difficult
09:51to predict in my opinion it's a Fool's
09:53errand to try to predict what's going to
09:55happen on earnings and then even worse
09:57try to predict how the stock is going to
09:59reactor earnings in my view there's
10:01there's a million different
10:02personalities and characters involved
10:04here both at the company at the short
10:06seller level in terms of the retail
10:08space it's just impossible to predict
10:10but practically what I will say is that
10:12I believe Bitcoin will short to medium
10:14term continue its uptrend I believe Mara
10:16will follow that and that thesis
10:18motivates my opinion that whether Mara
10:20sells off tomorrow on earnings or
10:22whether she rallies she'll inevitably
10:24find her way back to these cycle highs
10:25in the low to mid-30s and hopefully
10:27later break out far past those levels
10:29and at the same time since we can't
10:31control pricing my view is that if that
10:33thesis is proven wrong or Mar decides to
10:36dilute the boat again I would plan with
10:39strategic stop-losses a strategic risk
10:41management Plan before you take any kind
10:43of position if you ever think about
10:45going into a position without a stoploss
10:47without some form of thought out risk
10:49management well you got to ask yourself
10:51would I ever go on a roller coaster
10:52without a seat Bel and if your answer is
10:54yes to that fine go ahead do it without
10:55a stop loss but if your answer is no
10:58then certainly have a stop loss anyways
11:00folks that caps off today's video make
11:01sure to let us know your thoughts on
11:02Mara down below do you think she's going
11:04to go up do you think she's going to go
11:05down do you think it's a little bit more
11:06complicated are we right Are We Wrong
11:08what is your opinion we love hearing
11:10from you and of course make sure to take
11:11advantage of your 10 free fractional
11:12shares of Magnificent Seven stocks when
11:14signing up with Mumu in the first link
11:16down below excellent platform you're
11:17going to love them we'll see you in the
