00:00folks you better buckle up because we've
00:01got quite the storm coming this is going
00:03to be a jam-packed video and I highly
00:06recommend you watch it before tomorrow's
00:08Market open number one we got to cover
00:09the market situation heading into this
00:11week of course as you know by now Iran
00:14directly attacked Israel over the
00:15weekend in an unprecedented escalation
00:18Israel is already pledging to respond
00:20this will have a very large and direct
00:22impact on markets come tomorrow and I'm
00:24going to show you exactly what history
00:25suggests is a good trade on this number
00:27two we are in the final days before the
00:29Bitcoin having meanwhile the crypto
00:31Market has been taking a massive dumpy
00:33dumpo we'll talk about why the
00:35historical data and what to expect
00:36moving forward number three earning
00:38season meaningfully starts this week
00:40we're going to go into what tickers you
00:41need to know about and what the overall
00:43expectations are for this q1 reporting
00:46season let's get to work time stamps
00:47down below and as always make sure to do
00:49your own due diligence on all ideas
00:51presented here on the channel remember
00:52if you're the one taking the risk you
00:53got to be the one doing the ultimate
00:54Frisk lots of people they get real
00:56frisky without thinking about their
00:57risky big problemo Okay so context here
01:00heading into this weekend we were
01:02already in the most prolonged dip in the
01:04uptrend that we've been in since October
01:072023 we had a 4-day dip at the beginning
01:09of the year a few red days here and
01:11there but we've been in an overall dip
01:13now since the 28th some 11 trading days
01:16that's a pretty prolonged dip and while
01:18prolonged dip sounds scary the truth is
01:212.67% from all-time highs so it is a
01:24prolonged dip in terms of days and
01:26duration but it's not in terms of actual
01:29percentage drop it's basically just a
01:30hiccup which as I always like to say for
01:32us technical traders the trend is your
01:35friend until the trend bends and a 2.67%
01:37dip is not statistically significant
01:39enough to Mark a trend bend a 5% dip is
01:43when you can get suspicious a 10% dip is
01:45when you've confirmed a downtrend
01:47however the question that we're facing
01:48right now is is this dip here going to
01:50turn into something like we saw in July
01:53of 2023 where you have this three-leg
01:55down Trend after a really solid first
01:57seven months of the year and that dip
01:59back in July was inflation and fed
02:01Reserve related but at the same time
02:04right after those October 7th attacks
02:06and new Middle Eastern conflict
02:08escalations well you got that last prong
02:11down which took it to cycle lows so
02:13history does suggest that unprecedented
02:15escalation in the Middle East does tend
02:17to cause legs down in the stock market
02:20and the directional strength heading
02:21into Monday was already looking weaker
02:23and weaker combine that with a
02:24particularly hot inflation report last
02:26week and fed toning down rate cut
02:28rhetoric and it's not hard to see even
02:30more weakening at a minimum and a bigger
02:33test of the current direction that we're
02:35in now if you go over to this Middle
02:36East situation Iran of course launched
02:38this unprecedented direct attack on
02:40Israel of course Iran and Israel have
02:42long been at War by proxy but a direct
02:45attack on Israel is unprecedented and
02:47when you have unprecedented geopolitical
02:49risks and developments well well it's
02:51simply going to freak out a lot of money
02:53managers who are going to start
02:54reallocating their portfolios their
02:56clients portfolios into risk averse
02:59assets and and hedging which leads us
03:01over to the vix vix vix goes up when
03:03well when people are buying Hedges when
03:05do people buy Hedges well when fear and
03:06uncertainty are trending up we actually
03:08alled Vick's calls about a month ago as
03:10a hedge for zip Trader options members
03:12and we were a bit early to the game but
03:14the idea at the time was that vix was
03:16getting unrealistically and historically
03:18low which made it due for a breakout and
03:20a breakout has happened and now vix is
03:23breaking out to its year-to-date highs
03:24in Prime for a run towards and above 20
03:27bucks and it closed up about 16% on
03:30Friday and that's because those with the
03:31big money the ones with all the
03:32connections and the knowhow and the big
03:34teams of researchers saw that Iran's
03:36threats would come true over the weekend
03:38and so they prepped with Hedges and
03:39hedge they did 16% up is a lot and the
03:42technical suggest this momentum will
03:44continue climbing into the coming week
03:45you look at the last couple of runs here
03:47it ran 19.59% from $12.91 to $15.44 sold
03:53$13.76 then ran 22.6% to
03:57$16.87 sold off 11.61 % to $14.91 then
04:03$19.21 following this pattern and the
04:06Catalyst that we're looking at with this
04:07Middle East conflict well you can expect
04:09vix to easily run Monday and Tuesday to
04:12above 20 and then a sell off a little
04:14later in the week maybe 5 to 8% before
04:16its next cycle upward which should take
04:18it well into the 20s how do you trade
04:20vix well of course you can't directly
04:21buy vix but you can buy options on it or
04:24The Leverage version of it which is uvxy
04:26moving on you look over at oil prices
04:28this is the other Market that's going to
04:29be impacted greatly oil Futures have
04:31already climbed some 27% year-over-year
04:34prior to this escalation and with this
04:36recent news you can easily expect oil
04:38prices to climb well over a 100 bucks in
04:40the next week or two now if you're
04:41worried about the inflation problem
04:43obviously this is going to make things
04:44much worse but what's freaky is you're
04:46already seeing a lot of panicking from
04:47citizens in these countries they expect
04:50a much larger escalation if you look at
04:51citizens over in Iran The Times of
04:53Israel reports quote in Iran's Capital
04:55teron Witnesses saw long lines at gas
04:59stations early Sunday as people appeared
05:00worried about what may come after Iran's
05:03retaliatory attack now think about this
05:05for a second citizens in Iran which is
05:07literally overflowing with oil and gas
05:10are lining up to get gas this is a
05:12country where you can get gas for about
05:1410 cents a gallon 10 cents so again why
05:16are they lining up well because citizens
05:18there are expecting an attack or
05:20retaliation that's targeting their oil
05:23their gas infrastructure similar to what
05:25Iran accused Israel of doing over a
05:27month ago and at the same time you got
05:28to realize that Iran controls the
05:30straight of harmo which effectively can
05:32allow them the power to block one of the
05:34most critical trading routes of oil
05:36anywhere in the world so what's the
05:38point here what's the bigger picture
05:39well it's pretty clear that further
05:41retaliation is to be expected and it's
05:43going to be waged targeting the oil
05:46production and or transportation of oil
05:48which means what well it means a further
05:50climbing of oil prices the trade idea on
05:52this well I wouldn't trade off oil just
05:54yet and the reason is because we don't
05:57yet know exactly what Iran is going to
05:59be doing with its production goals and
06:01other members of OPEC oil producing
06:03countries what they're going to be
06:05targeting in terms of production and
06:06exporting and they tend to like to send
06:08signals of what they're going to be
06:09doing in the weeks after big attacks
06:11like this happen big escalations happen
06:13so right now I would play a little bit
06:15of a wait and see game with this markets
06:17are definitely going to be hedging
06:18though which is why I would suggest
06:20taking a strong look at vix as it breaks
06:22out higher and higher okay I want to go
06:24ahead and move on to the cryptocurrency
06:25market and specifically the coin of bit
06:27so the much awaited Bitcoin having is
06:29expected to start happening sometime at
06:31the end of this coming week around the
06:3319th and 20th yet at the same time
06:35crypto markets have been taking very
06:36aggressively you can peg this on
06:38inflation report fears and the
06:39geopolitical crisis so on and so forth
06:42but bigger picture Bitcoin does tend to
06:44Rally before and after having and it has
06:47indeed already rallied quite a bit
06:48before having since October it's up some
06:51135% even with recent sell-offs and we
06:53broke into higher highs earlier in this
06:55cycle into the mid 70s right a little
06:57bit lower than the mid 70s but pretty
06:59aggressive breakout so even if this
07:01sells off to the 50s well this still
07:03fulfills the pattern of running and
07:04breaking out before having but the
07:06question here is really for that second
07:08opportunity which is what is going to
07:10happen after the having the way to
07:11analyze this is by looking at data that
07:14breaks down what happened after previous
07:16havs and in the first cycle after
07:17bitcoin's first having well it rallied
07:208,447 in the 365 calendar days after
07:24that having rallied 290% in the 365
07:28calendar days after the second having
07:30and Bitcoin ran 559 in the 365 calendar
07:34days after the third having and if you
07:36look at the first second and third
07:38having Bitcoin was either in a sell-off
07:40heading into having had just started a
07:42small push back or was just in an
07:44attempted recovery so this current
07:46selloff that we're having right now into
07:47having and perhaps the first week or two
07:49after having isn't incredibly
07:51unprecedented if historical patterns
07:52continue you should see these prices get
07:54bought up again the more it sells off
07:56now the more potential upsid you have
07:58based on the historical data now how far
08:00can you expect Bitcoin prices to go
08:02after having well common sense says that
08:04when comparing Bitcoin momentum in past
08:06having to current having well you got to
08:08assume an overall percentage return
08:10Trend that is downward just because
08:12market cap has climbed so much further
08:14Bitcoin is much much more mature in the
08:16earlier stages while you're still
08:18gearing up to maturity while percentage
08:20changes are much bigger now they're
08:22going to be lesser and lesser for
08:248,447 per return after having in this
08:27first cycle could happen because when
08:29Bitcoin was trading at a market cap of
08:31five or so billion that was still well
08:33well well below maturity and it's much
08:36easier to run 8,447 per from a market
08:39cap of five or so billion than it would
08:41be to run from a market cap of a
08:43trillion that we're at right now we're
08:44at about 1.3 trillion if you're at
08:478,447 per return on a trillion dollar
08:50asset well all of a sudden what's
08:52happening well Bitcoin is taking over
08:55all of the planets in our solar system
08:57which I know there's some bulls that
08:58think that's going to happen happen I'm
09:00just not there yet however a 50 to 100%
09:03return that certainly could happen in
09:04this cycle now you might say okay but
09:05Charlie doesn't the chart a little bit
09:07contradict what you just said after all
09:108,447 to 290 and then back up to 559 so
09:14it looks like returns are going up again
09:15right Charlie well now well now still as
09:17the asset matures and gets bigger and
09:19bigger you can expect overall not every
09:22single time but but overall the trend of
09:24percentage returns to be downward this
09:26time around expecting a 50 to 100% run
09:28after having is definitely something
09:30that's a little bit more on the
09:31realistic side now when it comes down to
09:33a lot of the smaller cryptocurrencies
09:34out there we made a video last week on a
09:36bunch of different cryptocurrencies that
09:37you should check out but those might see
09:40massive massive massive runs that are
09:42many multiples of Bitcoin just because
09:44they have a lot farther to run to their
09:45own maturity okay moving on let's go
09:47ahead and talk earnings so earning
09:49season meaningfully starts this week
09:50with the financial sector reporting the
09:52big ones you got the saacks of Goldman
09:53and Schwab reporting before open
09:55tomorrow Tuesday you have Bank of
09:57America United Health Group Johnson and
09:58Johnson organ Stanley United JB Hunt
10:00Wednesday you're getting back into
10:02Abbott us band Corp Thursday tsmc noia
10:05KeyBank Alaska Airlines infos Seas Ally
10:08Netflix Friday American Express regions
10:11and some smaller Banks so let's talk
10:14about the expectations going in here
10:15because that's really what matters so if
10:16you look at the evolution of 2024 q1
10:19growth estimates for the S&P 5 hundo
10:21well estimates were at 5.9% growth in
10:24December 4.7 January 10th 4.6 January
10:2717th 4 .4% January 24th 3.5% January
10:3231st 2.7% February 20th and now we're at
10:352.4% as of today these are the estimates
10:37that people had for q1's reporting and
10:40you could see it went down basically
10:43week after week after week after week
10:45and it's well well below what the
10:46original estimates were for us back in
10:48December so in other words earnings
10:50growth estimates have been dropping like
10:51a rock and very very consistently and
10:53you know what also happened during this
10:54time while markets rallied aggressively
10:56so that tells us two things number one
10:58markets haven't really cared that much
10:59about the growth rates but also number
11:01two the bar is set very very low heading
11:03into this earnings markets have been
11:05pumped all year because of rate cut
11:06expectations and big growth in the big
11:08Tech names and excitement in AI they
11:10haven't really been ping because they
11:11think that growth in the S&P 500
11:13earnings overall is going to be super
11:15going to be super duper strong they
11:16don't think that analysts are starting
11:17to get to that level where they're like
11:18you know what I think the S&P 500 is
11:20going to be plateauing in terms of
11:21earnings you look at the year-over-year
11:23change in net margins they're expected
11:25to go down in q1 of 2024 in other words
11:28margins are crunching and this has to do
11:30with inflation again we saw huge
11:31inflation in 2022 and early 2023 cut
11:34into the profit margins of companies and
11:36that's expected to be the case in q1
11:382024 as well and this mimics one of the
11:40worst erors in the stock market in the
11:41last 20 years you look at the tech
11:43sector which really is driving markets
11:45this year well that's also supposed to
11:46take a dip for q1 now there's good and
11:49bad news with these expectations do you
11:51want the good news or the bad news first
11:52of course you want the bad news first
11:54well the bad news is that the overall
11:56expectations are getting lower and lower
11:57and lower the good news is that since
11:59they are getting so low the bar is set
12:00basically at the floor for this earning
12:02season markets have already factored in
12:04a low standard for earnings which is
12:06nice because when you head into an
12:07earning season where expectations are
12:09skyh high well even if the companies
12:10report huge numbers and huge huge
12:13progress well the stock price could
12:15still sell off quite a bit because
12:17people are disappointed because they've
12:19just factored in too much but here you
12:20can see very very clearly the markets
12:21have low expectations heading into this
12:23earning season not high expectations
12:25anyways folks that caps off today's
12:27video make sure to let us know what you
12:28think in the comments section down below
12:29and by the way I want to invite you to
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12:48we will see you in the next video
