A simple, non directional option strategy works - EQSIS

EQSIS2020-10-16

non directional option strategy#Straddle#strangle#EQSIS option chain filter#back tested strategy#eqsis#butterfly option strategy#iron condor#tail risk in option strategy#volatility

53K views|3 years ago

💫 Short Summary

The video discusses non-directional options trading strategies, emphasizing the importance of understanding market ranges, volatility, and probabilities. It highlights risk management, the significance of standard deviation, and the impact of call and put options on market trends. The speaker encourages viewers to practice, analyze data, and develop successful trading strategies to optimize performance. The video also introduces a beginner's training program and emphasizes the importance of sharing and engaging with the content for continued support and growth.

✨ Highlights

📊 Transcript

✦

Understanding market ranges is crucial for successful non-directional options trading strategies.

02:32

Risks and benefits of bullish and bearish positions, including long positions, call options, and spreads, are explained in detail.

Patience and faith are emphasized as key factors in mastering these strategies for increased trading confidence and success.

Viewers are encouraged to test their understanding by answering key questions about market direction.

The video aims to provide valuable insights and back-tested results to enhance option trading skills.

✦

Non-directional strategies for making money in the market.

04:28

Buying both call and put options can lead to profits regardless of market direction.

Understanding volatility is key for successful options trading.

Volatility is crucial for non-directional strategies, but it also carries risks related to premium costs.

Comprehending volatility as an art form is essential for successful option trading.

✦

Market behavior and trading ranges.

07:15

The market tends to revolve around the current level with minimal volatility due to the bell-shaped curve and statistical concepts.

Observations reveal commonalities in market aspects with minimal skew, making timing difficult for traders.

Constructing a trading range involves calculating averages of returns or volatility to predict market movements.

Recording daily percentage gains or losses helps determine overall average performance and predict market behavior.

✦

Understanding Standard Deviation in Market Trends.

10:24

Standard deviation shows the concentration of data around the mean in market trends.

One standard deviation covers close to 68% of the population, while two standard deviations encompass a wider range.

Importance of understanding standard deviation for option trading, with option chain analysis providing valuable insights.

Encouragement for viewers to continue learning and find the topic more interesting moving forward.

✦

Importance of understanding market probabilities and risk-reward ratios in making investment decisions.

13:13

Back-tested results show 64-68% chances of the market revolving around certain levels.

Taking calculated risks and constructing a strategic approach based on probabilities can lead to profitable outcomes.

Utilizing tools like NSE option chain filter can aid in identifying trading opportunities and optimizing strategies.

Practicing and implementing these concepts can enhance decision-making skills and improve overall trading performance.

✦

Importance of analyzing options data and understanding market expectations.

16:43

Emphasis on non-directional strategies and careful decision-making.

Specific examples and calculations related to option prices and potential market movement.

Encouragement to stay informed and attentive to market dynamics for successful trading strategies.

✦

Market analysis predicts a 68% probability of settlement between 11,600 and 11,900.

21:50

Backtesting data from 2015 suggests market movements around 1,700.

Call option premium is 50 rupees, put option premium is 53 rupees, totaling 103 rupees.

The market settled at 1,699.8 on January 1, 2015, with potential movement between 1,500 and 1,800.

Verification on the NSE website is advised for additional information.

✦

Discussion on market settlement, future prices, and specific contract details.

23:30

Emphasis on the importance of a large sample size for statisticians to make accurate predictions.

Recommendation for limited risk strategies over high and low considerations for market trading.

Conclusion with a call to action for viewers to like, share, and subscribe to support the channel's growth.

✦

Analysis of market settling at different levels and fluctuations in rupees and percentages.

25:20

Emphasis on avoiding judgment of systems based on limited samples and showcasing bell-shaped curve as common behavior.

Speaker performs calculations to demonstrate confidence in data, mentioning 18,000 instances of markets expiring below current prices out of 2.4 lakh attempts.

Different scenarios of market settlement highlighted, including marginally lower settlements and premiums at the money for calls and puts.

✦

Key highlights of market behavior analysis.

28:21

Market price has settled below 50 rupees, indicating a common range-bound behavior.

Approximately 68.3 percent of the market revolves within the premium range.

To build a successful strategy, aim for a success ratio of 66-70 percent for increased confidence.

The wider range covers 150 percent at the money premium.

✦

Importance of Risk Management in Trading.

34:03

Understanding risk-adjusted returns is crucial for successful trading strategies.

Strategies should be based on narrow or broad ranges, with corresponding success ratios.

Caution against tail risks to prevent significant losses.

Managing risk effectively is essential to avoid being wiped out by extreme market movements.

✦

Importance of forming trading strategies based on market ranges for risk management.

35:01

Strategies discussed include straddles, strangles, and butterflies for lower risk.

Encouragement for practice, documentation of trading ranges, and backtesting strategies.

Emphasis on decision-making based on risk-to-reward ratios and understanding market probabilities.

Speaker advocates for fully hedged approaches to trading.

✦

Importance of understanding risk to reward ratios in trading decisions.

38:15

Assess current premiums and probabilities to determine whether to go long or short.

Mention of trading strategies like iron condor or short butterflies to make money.

Promotion of online training programs for beginners in option trading.

Benefits of mastering fundamentals before advancing to more advanced strategies.

✦

Limited audience interaction during training programs.

41:01

Understanding expectations and ongoing conversations with participants is emphasized.

Eligibility tests are required for advanced programs, with personalized support.

The session limits the number of participants for individual attention and content comprehension.

The importance of put call ratios for market analysis and using put and call options to predict market trends is highlighted.

✦

Study on call and put options performance.

43:55

Significant call and put options data collected for analysis.

Case study on Apollo Hospital's put options on September 18th, 2020.

Market moved up by 110 points despite prediction of significant put option.

Importance of sticking to a system and having confidence in strategies to avoid missing out on potential gains emphasized.

✦

Analysis of call and put options in the market.

47:04

Calls can impact skew towards the left or right side.

Understanding market efficiency and contrarian players' reactions to drastic skews.

Explanation of the difference between blue and orange in call options.

Technical concepts related to the mean and system accuracy in trading decisions.

✦

Importance of sharing and supporting video on social media.

49:34

Significance of call options and market range from -10 to +9.

Not underestimating current market level in positively or negatively skewed situations.

Emphasis on managing positions effectively for profitable trading.

Recommendation of non-directional strategies with some directional bias for successful trading outcomes.

✦

Introduction to beginner's level interactive and affordable training program for option chain analysis.

52:26

Challenges and quizzes included throughout the video to test understanding.

Advanced questions cover forming trading strategies and calculating risk to reward ratios.

Viewers encouraged to engage by answering questions in the comment section for learning opportunities.

✦

Overview of options trading strategies with a focus on Access Bank stock.

56:09

Analysis of current price, resistance and support levels, and potential trading ranges.

Encouragement for viewers to explore different strategies, considering break-even points and maximum profit possibilities.

Emphasis on understanding probabilities in trading and the risk of losing money beyond certain ranges for informed decision-making.

✦

Importance of Audience Interaction

01:00:07

Research is crucial before making trading decisions.

Sharing a story about a video link spreading on Whatsapp.

Emphasizing the importance of motivation in trading.

Mentioning the need to re-record a video due to poor audio quality.

✦

Importance of Viewer Support for Channel Growth

01:01:38

Encourages viewers to share videos to increase views and motivation for creating more content.

Expresses gratitude for viewer support and hopes for continued engagement to find better ways to improve the channel.

Emphasizes the importance of viewer motivation in generating new video ideas.

Thanks the audience for their ongoing presence and support.

00:02hi everyone this is murudin my semi

00:03registered research analyst

00:05happy to present another interesting

00:07video i hope you must be an option

00:09trader

00:10or even if you are interested to learn

00:12options you must watch this video

00:15if you have a patience to watch this

00:17video without skipping a second

00:20then you will have a serious take away

00:22from this video

00:23because those insights which i gonna

00:26share in this video with the

00:28back tested results that will always

00:31come on top of your mind

00:32whenever you form the option strategy i

00:35hope this video can make that impact

00:38in a way you can stick to a system and

00:41you can sail through

00:42your option trading career with that

00:45hope let me get into this video

00:48so as far as the flow of the content i

00:50gonna begin by explaining what is

00:53non-directional strategy and why do they

00:55exist

00:56for whom it is really makes sense and

00:59then i get into

01:01a few parameters from option chain

01:02analysis because i hope it

01:05really helps while building those

01:06strategies that are needed to

01:09have a better returns over the market

01:12and of course as i said i'm going to

01:14share some of the

01:15a back tested results

01:18which add up lot to your confidence so i

01:22can

01:22i can probably show you those are

01:25samples and all the stuff

01:27as they move forward but when you

01:28conclude this video

01:30you may be in the position to answer

01:31these questions if you're a beginner you

01:33may be the position to answer the first

01:34two questions

01:35but if you're a pro you can answer even

01:37the third question but look at the first

01:39question

01:40you know it's all about how do i

01:42understand the narrow range of the

01:43market

01:44i mean the nifty if you understand the

01:47the the likely range of the market then

01:49you can build strategies on top of it

01:51that's a very common question for any

01:53option trader

01:55and if you know the probability there is

01:57a quite a good chance that you make

01:59money on

02:00as an option trader so these are all

02:03a common thing that an option trader

02:05should understand

02:07while building the strategies i hope you

02:10can actually answer this question

02:12towards the end of the video but if you

02:14know how to answer this video right away

02:16if you are a master in answering this

02:19question then you can probably skip this

02:21complete video

02:23i humbly request you people to have a

02:26faith

02:26and patience because i'm getting into

02:28this video

02:29hoping that you have a patience to watch

02:32in one stretch let's get started what

02:36are non-directional strategies

02:38we know the market sometimes makes a

02:40move on the up sometime it goes down

02:42but sometime it it makes it slightly

02:44difficult to guess the direction

02:46right let's see look at the market here

02:48it plays right at the resistance

02:50by any chance if i have a bullish view

02:52in the market you know what i do

02:53i go and create long positions in future

02:55sometime i buy call options sometime i

02:57create

02:57a bull call spread but remember when the

02:59market goes down i have a downside risk

03:01maybe a limited downside risk maybe a

03:03partial

03:04a premium what i paid is going to be the

03:06risk but remember there is a risk on the

03:08downside so

03:09my bets were on directional am i right

03:12and same is true even if you have a

03:14bearish expectation

03:15you create a positions accordingly but

03:18here also we have a directional risk

03:20we a short position we have a risk on

03:23top side

03:23right so if you are directionally good

03:26then you make money here

03:27but most often we see markets where

03:30clueless about the direction

03:32we may not know what to do with the

03:33market because it's pretty confusing

03:36in those times still there is a way to

03:38make money what we do is

03:40we instead of just buying a call or a

03:42port we buy

03:43call and put in a way for market goes up

03:46i'm happy because of the call

03:47the market goes down i'm happy because

03:49of the put but

03:51as an option trader even most of you

03:52must be aware of it there is a risk

03:54associated because the kind of premium

03:56we pay

03:56to get this position is huge

04:00so market should exhibit a significant

04:03volatility

04:04in a given period of time only when we

04:06make money

04:08so this although it looks

04:10non-directional there is a catch called

04:12volatility

04:13i'll come back to the risk part bit

04:15later but look at this

04:17now instead of creating a long position

04:20within both call and put

04:22even if you create a short positions in

04:24call and put

04:25still you make money on both the

04:27direction so this is also

04:28non-directional

04:30but in this case you expect the

04:32volatility to be

04:34low you you expect the volatility to dry

04:37over a period of time so that you make

04:39money if a market exhibit unusual

04:41volatility or if a market takes

04:43one-sided direction

04:45then you feel bad because there is a

04:47risk associated let me now come back to

04:49the risk part

04:50when you have a long positions if a

04:53market does not exhibit a

04:54volatility you end up losing lot of

04:56premium of course

04:58so there is a loss-making scenario

05:01but that gonna be something which

05:03revolves around the current market price

05:05but if you look at in this case if a

05:08market

05:08hovers around the current level you end

05:10up making money but if a market exhibit

05:13a wider move then you actually incur a

05:15loss so where is the catch

05:17it's all about volatility if you are not

05:20directionally

05:21good there is a way to make money

05:24through non-directional strategies

05:26but here you need to understand the

05:28volatility

05:29so the art of understanding the

05:32volatility

05:33is key for any option trader

05:36i am not getting in much detail about

05:38the volatility rather i'm going to give

05:40you something

05:41which answers to this question

05:44even understanding the volatility is an

05:46art let's get into it

05:48okay see the market makes ups and more

05:51am i right

05:52i have a question for you people now i i

05:55don't know how many of you people

05:56simultaneously watching this video i

05:58humbly request you

06:00to go to the comment section and tell me

06:02whether this

06:03from this level the stock is going to go

06:05up or down

06:07see i am not expecting you to be right

06:09i'm not expecting you to

06:12you know to do all this analysis even if

06:14you make a wild

06:16guess even if you make a wild guess okay

06:19you may be right or you may be wrong so

06:21market got either to go up or to go down

06:24sometime it can even be stagnant

06:26but if you look at the scenario sometime

06:28it goes up sometime it goes down some

06:30people make a guess of the downside

06:33and anything market wish to do it can do

06:35it

06:36but when we look at our records

06:39by taking maybe about 5 years or 10

06:42years or even 20 years or even if you

06:44take

06:44100 years one common scenario

06:48which is happening that most of the time

06:50market revolves at one level which is

06:53you know the the significant

06:55volatilities were shown

06:56at a very rare time most of the time

06:59market

07:00shown a less volatile scenario try to

07:03understand

07:04that it it formed a kind of a

07:06bell-shaped curve

07:07i think those who are familiar about the

07:09statistical concepts i mean

07:11through a distribution we understand

07:13that's i know

07:15it's not excuse no it is something which

07:17is

07:18pretty much uh it's not skew by the way

07:20it pretty much worked towards

07:22at the current level

07:25when you understand this you get to know

07:28how to define the trading range because

07:30most of the time the market will settle

07:33towards the current level

07:34not much of the no more of course there

07:38is a

07:38tail risk which i come back with later

07:40but if you are not able to understand

07:42this light

07:43don't very much because i have some

07:45working examples which makes

07:47lot a lot more easier for you to

07:49understand it so as i move forward i can

07:52make you to understand this at this

07:53moment what i'm trying to tell you is

07:55mostly market revolves around the

07:58current level

07:59that's what i know when you back tested

08:01for so many years

08:02and this is not in the case of market

08:04alone

08:05statistically such observations were

08:09pretty common in various aspects as long

08:12as there is not much of skew because so

08:14this is the reason why even lot of

08:16people makes a statement that market is

08:18also kind of random walk theory

08:20all these bullishness bearishness you

08:22know it's it's slightly difficult to

08:24time the market

08:25okay let's go with the notion let's move

08:27on towards to understand the

08:29things but first of all how do i

08:30understand the trading range like you

08:32know sometime back i said there's a

08:33bell-shaped curve

08:34how do i construct this now if you

08:36really want to know how do i

08:38how do i construct this particular area

08:40there is a pretty simple statistic

08:42concept which i can explain

08:43now in a simple way okay all you people

08:46have to figure out is let's say the

08:48stock has

08:49you know a lot of move over a period of

08:51time

08:52i want you people to take the average if

08:54you want to take the average of returns

08:56you can take it if not

08:57most recommended thing is to average you

08:59know average volatility okay average

09:02move so when you understand this

09:04probably we call this as an average or

09:06in a statistical concepts we say it is

09:08the mean right we we

09:09call it is mean so when you understand

09:11this average

09:12okay what you people have to do is with

09:14with so many records like you know

09:16sometime the market moves plus one

09:17percent

09:18or sometime it goes by minus one percent

09:21sometime it gains

09:220.5 percent or sometimes it loses 0.5

09:25percent

09:26sometime it gains a 0.4 percent with

09:29like you know this may be jan 1 jan 2

09:31jan 3 gen 4 jack 5

09:326 and finally you get the average of

09:35everything

09:36and with all those records we can do

09:38something called a standard deviation

09:40so that actually i know how much

09:42deviation from the mean

09:43so that tells me how concentrated are

09:47they

09:48are they really towards the average is

09:51the average is something which is

09:52reliable

09:53is the market revolving around the

09:54average or is it something which is

09:56beyond the average okay now when you

09:59understand this like you know

10:00when you take one standard deviation it

10:03covers

10:04close to 68 percent of the population

10:06but i don't want to get in detail of the

10:08statistics don't want to confuse you

10:10people

10:10okay even if you are not understanding

10:12these concepts needless to bother

10:14because

10:14the real takeaway is from the next slide

10:17for the beginner but if you are a pro

10:19who wants to understand the subject in

10:21detail probably you should spend time

10:23here as well

10:24so when you have a you know one standard

10:26deviation we get close to a 68 percent

10:29of the population

10:30okay 68 of the population and if you if

10:33you have a two standard deviation

10:35it takes care of the wider range of

10:37course so there is a high probable case

10:40that it fall under your expectations

10:43so remember there is a two thing what we

10:44are trying to understand the standard

10:46deviation is the probable range which

10:48helps us to define like you know

10:50in terms of up and down but murugan

10:53this looks so statistical or this looks

10:56so theoretical

10:57how do i do that as an option trader

10:59instead of doing this

11:01on a statistical way i prefer to

11:04do this with option chain that is where

11:07i believe an option chain analysis can

11:08help

11:09from here on this subject becomes more

11:12relevant to you

11:13and makes it much easier for you to

11:14understand thanks for your patience to

11:16watch this video till this minute

11:18continue this momentum i hope you will

11:20find it much more interesting going

11:22forward

11:23but murgan tell me how do i find it okay

11:25now

11:26just for an example you take a future

11:27price okay step one okay remember

11:30step one you take the future price okay

11:33let's say the future price is

11:34uh thousand five hundred okay the future

11:36price is thousand five hundred

11:38and i want you to understand where the

11:40at the money most likely at the money is

11:42around thousand five hundred

11:43and it must be having a call option and

11:45it must be having a

11:46put option of course okay and this this

11:49is something called at the monies okay

11:51at the money

11:52let's say the call option prices is

11:53something around 75

11:55and put option price is something around

11:5777

11:58okay when you add up to this particular

12:01thing we end up getting like 7

12:02150 152 okay

12:06this at the money range this at the

12:09money range you have to add a pawn

12:12from here which is 1500

12:15plus 152 and minus 152

12:19okay if you do so you end up getting

12:21thousand six

12:22hundred a and this is something like

12:271348

12:28okay now you got a trading range i hope

12:31you people got the trading range

12:32now okay okay how do i got this one six

12:35five

12:35zero five two and one three four eight

12:39and this is just by taking the premiums

12:42and you know it's a one round of premium

12:44on up and one round of premium on the

12:45downside

12:46but i call this as a narrow range okay

12:48now we're good

12:50with this range what are we gonna do

12:52remember

12:53i'm gonna share you some insights okay i

12:56mean the back tested results

12:57there are close to 64 chance okay when

13:00you have

13:01110 instead of 100 okay one if you put

13:04it in the percentage it is hundred

13:05percent okay

13:06if you put it hundred and ten percent

13:08okay it's gonna be 68

13:10chances are there that the market is

13:12going to revolve around here

13:13so having known there are 64 to 68

13:17chances that the market revolves around

13:20there is a pretty

13:21smart way to make money okay for that

13:24you need to know what sort of risk to

13:25reward you have to take

13:27towards because the tail in risk is also

13:29there so

13:30but if you really wanted to take a wider

13:32range you can probably take

13:34two rounds of the premium i mean instead

13:35of taking 152 take another 152.

13:38so you will be having something like

13:391800 here

13:41and here it's about 1200 so

13:44now it's it's around i know 1200 here

13:48so for a market to settle between

13:50thousand eight hundred thousand two

13:51hundred pretty natural anybody a common

13:53man can even say it has a better

13:55probability am i right

13:56but if you know the probability really

13:59well

14:00only then you can even construct a

14:02strategy which can actually help you a

14:04lot

14:05hope uh this light was much better or

14:07much easier than whatever you have seen

14:09it

14:09but i can make it a lot better if you

14:12see some actual numbers

14:13all right so for that uh what we can do

14:16is i want you people to have

14:18a practice along with me so that you

14:21not just see the video you can actually

14:24practice it so that it remains with you

14:27believe me you should actually attempt

14:29it even if you watch this video you can

14:30pass this video

14:32just take your browser just take your

14:34browser and search this option change

14:36filter okay

14:37when you search this option change

14:38filter i hope the google can

14:41list you various options okay and the

14:43very first thing what you have is

14:45nse option chain filter i hope you guys

14:47can see there is something called

14:48nse option same filter okay and i want

14:51you to actually

14:52click on to that particular link to get

14:53into it okay let me do it along with you

14:55so that you know

14:56you can also you know catch it

14:59let me take the browser here okay let me

15:02take the browser here and

15:04let me go from the google itself okay

15:05now if i go to this

15:07google here and if i go and say nse

15:10option chain okay which is option

15:14chain filter okay if i go to option

15:17chain filter as i said you see something

15:19on top of it if you

15:20get into this particular page it's

15:22straight coming to this one the reason

15:24why i

15:24use the google search it gives you the

15:26right link on top of

15:27it but even if you are familiar from a

15:30website if you someone who use

15:31the other scanners and filters you can

15:34pretty much find that

15:35filter at nse options in filter okay and

15:38if you see there are a lot of parameters

15:39here and this is not the video i'm going

15:41to explain

15:42each and every parameter of course if

15:43you wish to learn each and every

15:45parameter

15:45we got another video which was posted i

15:47think a month before okay

15:49and if you look at that particular video

15:50from equals all you have to do is just

15:52go and search eq sis

15:54and you i hope you guys can see this uh

15:57you know the

15:57the channel here and this this is a

15:59video i hope uh you know

16:01uh is this is the video i hope uh

16:05option chain filter with historical open

16:06interest chart i think that this video

16:09if if time permits i'll add this card

16:11link on top of it okay let's get into

16:13the chapter

16:15so i i'm going to focus on a couple of

16:18things here okay now i'm going to focus

16:20on put call ratio

16:21okay which i come a later part of the

16:23video okay

16:24and and if you see there is a plus mark

16:27here

16:28okay this is a filter i know makes it

16:30easier for you to guess the

16:32not guess to see the uh at the money

16:35call premium at the money put premium so

16:37you know i think this is a record which

16:40was updated as of 16th october i think

16:43as on friday okay

16:44and when i look at the acc the prices is

16:47thousand five hundred and sixty six

16:49and then it is true the at the money

16:51must be 1560

16:53which is a closer one and the call

16:56option price is 52 and the put option

16:58price is 46.

16:59so when you add up both you get close to

17:02100

17:02right when you get close to 100 rupees

17:05right actually

17:0598 but you know on the round number i

17:08take hundred

17:09so if someone is asking me what is the

17:10range okay now i want you people to

17:12focus here okay now look at the

17:14future price one five six six one five

17:16six six okay one five six six

17:18now i'm not gonna add up on to the at

17:20the money strike price okay i'm going to

17:22take this range which is 52 plus 46

17:2452 plus 46 with this particular one okay

17:28so if someone is asking me what sort of

17:30moves expected for this expiry this

17:32expired is 29th october okay 29th

17:34october

17:35and today we are starting at 16th

17:37october so we have a close to 14 days

17:39and we have a

17:40maybe close to 10 working days in a way

17:42that

17:43you know the market is expected to be

17:47within 1466

17:522666 murgan this is any common man can

17:55say that

17:56remember if you know that really well

17:58then there are non-directional

18:00strategies gonna help you to make money

18:02but believe me it's not gonna be there

18:04for sure or forever

18:06the the probability of being inside is

18:09what i'm gonna share you in the couple

18:11of

18:12slides so i want you to be stick to it

18:15it's it's close to 68 chances are there

18:17for the market to remain in that

18:19particular one what i said okay and of

18:22course

18:23for you people like you know if you wish

18:24to pick up the nifty okay now let me

18:26take nifty okay

18:27if you get into nifty you guys can have

18:29a nifty and magnificent one

18:31you know filter you can get it and if i

18:33take uh

18:3422nd october you'll see the premium is

18:37119 and 103. i think adam

18:39adding up i get close to 120 am right so

18:42if you look at this

18:43range now which is mark it is 11 000 650

18:4611 000 765

18:49with 120 so if someone is asking me the

18:51range i see the range is something 11

18:53600 to 11 900 and the probability of

18:57market being inside

18:59is close to 68 okay it's close to 68

19:03and there is a second level of standard

19:04deviation which can i can talk about it

19:06let me slightly get into the you know

19:09the chapter

19:10okay uh i think this slide may be pretty

19:14confusing before i get into the slide

19:16you know i let me share the

19:18the raw data what we have in the excel

19:20okay

19:21i hope you guys can see this excel sheet

19:23okay

19:24and i hope the text is also visible if

19:27not

19:28you know because we we probably take

19:31efforts to record this in the hd version

19:33if not in the 4k

19:35but otherwise you need a you know a

19:37stable internet connection to see the

19:39text well

19:40okay now look at this uh the point

19:42number one

19:44i said it is a backtested from 2015. i

19:46hope you see this is aditya brillanova

19:49the contract expiring on 29th jan and if

19:51i put it on the

19:53the time stamp here you see it's the

19:55first jan

19:562015 and if i go down i think for the

19:58first time 2015

20:00we must be having a you know close to

20:02150 or 200 records because

20:04every future contracts know every future

20:06contracts

20:07been evaluated on this ground so we

20:09wanted to know

20:10what happens to these future contracts

20:13sometime back if you see

20:14i was telling you people that market

20:17tends to be within this range

20:18right i told you sometime back eleven

20:20thousand nine hundred to eleven thousand

20:22six hundred but you may be

20:24you know questioning me that look even

20:26last two three days the market witnessed

20:27unusual move

20:29does it is it really true that the

20:30market settles within this range

20:32that's why i said there is a probability

20:34there is a probability of settling

20:36within this range is only 68 percent

20:38so you should know okay but for that

20:41we need to back test it of course i'm

20:44right for back testing it

20:46just for your you know a confidence just

20:48to build your confidence

20:49i'm gonna show you something that

20:52no when you see that i think you guys

20:54can also you know uh go and see through

20:56nse website to verify these numbers as

20:59well

20:59like the future prices on 1st jan 2015

21:03was settled at 1699.8 okay

21:06and if you if you look at the the call

21:09option premium the call option premium

21:11of at the money okay which is thousand

21:13seven hundred columns in premium is 50

21:14rupees

21:15and put option premium is 53 in a way we

21:17see the collective premium is

21:19103 rupees 103 rupees is a collective

21:22premium

21:23so as per my statement some time back

21:26the market movement the market movement

21:28is expected to be

21:311700 i just rounded it up for the

21:34convenience okay one six nine nine

21:36rather it's rounded to the thousand

21:37seven hundred

21:38plus hundred points and minus hundred

21:40points which is thousand five hundred

21:42sorry thousand six hundred two thousand

21:44eight hundred okay thousand six hundred

21:46two thousand eight

21:46let's see where the market settled on

21:48the expiry date if you look at on the

21:50expiry day on the on the expiry day of

21:52this contract

21:53the market settled on thousand eight

21:55hundred and twenty three in fact it went

21:57slightly beyond

21:58the hundred points more okay how much it

22:00went beyond

22:01it actually you know it it settled at

22:03120 percent you know it went beyond the

22:06hundred percent of the move

22:07i said like you know hundred percent in

22:09this case is hundred rupees okay

22:11but in this case that's why the at the

22:13money premium is 104

22:14but the market exhibited a moment of

22:16123.

22:18i am not talking about the range and

22:20talking about the market settlement

22:21towards the close

22:22where exactly it finds the close i'm

22:24talking about i'm not talking about the

22:26highs and lows

22:27in this success ratio we are talking

22:28about the close okay

22:30because i gonna recommend you a limited

22:32risk strategies

22:33not the unlimited risk strategies to

22:35bother about highs and lows

22:37okay and by the way just for you to you

22:39know gain some confidence look at this

22:41this was on june 2015 when i scrolled

22:44down

22:44you guys can see it's uh number 2015

22:48and you guys can see it's on 2016 and it

22:50is 2017

22:52so if i scroll down you guys can see

22:532018 record

22:55like you know even if i just randomly

22:57take it okay it's

22:58i know it's um um let's take a company

23:01which are pretty familiar let's say

23:02access bank

23:03okay 28th march 2018 contract okay 28th

23:07march 2018 this is an expiry date

23:09and if you look at the date 26th march

23:12the future price must be the future

23:14price must be 553.35 just

23:17for you people to understand the

23:19integrity of the data and presenting you

23:22okay and what i really want to convey

23:24out of this particular

23:25excel is the sample size is close to 2.3

23:29lakh

23:30so 2.3 lack of contract incidence

23:34is a meaningful sample for any

23:36statistician to

23:38agree upon and we see a very common

23:41behavior out of this

23:42okay movement what exactly you saw of

23:44this okay now look at this now at the

23:46last slide what you see

23:47okay let me hide another component which

23:51i

23:51i really don't want because it's pretty

23:53much distracting for most of the

23:55time right so what i'm gonna do is

23:59i'm actually going to take uh you know

24:01i'm just gonna hide it

24:03okay

24:12okay till this

24:15ok and let me hide it okay so that it's

24:18pretty visible in this one slide okay

24:20now

24:20you'll see that the future price was

24:221699 but

24:24the market made a move

24:30okay

24:35okay now look at this uh thanks for the

24:38patience and sorry for the gap in

24:40between

24:40i hope you appreciate it meanwhile why

24:42not you'd have gone for liking the video

24:45and why not you can even subscribe it of

24:48course you must be an

24:49existing subscriber because you see that

24:51and if you are a early viewer of this

24:52video

24:53do share this video because when you

24:56watch this video earlier if you share

24:57this

24:58google even like it and youtube will

25:00start recommending us

25:01and that motivates a lot okay quickly

25:03get into this video

25:05okay look at this i said the future

25:07price is one six nine nine

25:08okay and if you look at the at the money

25:10premiums is one zero four okay

25:12the first one you have to remember and

25:14the second thing what you have to see is

25:16one zero four

25:16but look at where the market was settled

25:18it's one eight two three one eight two

25:20three which is

25:21123 rupees movement from this level 123

25:24rupees movement from this level

25:26but when you look at this the market was

25:28123 rupees movement

25:30whereas out of 104 so the the market

25:33made 119

25:34percentage of that like in this case

25:37three rupees

25:38whereas the market made seven rupees of

25:39more okay but in this case and then

25:42it witnessed on the downside okay it

25:43witnessed on the downside because

25:45if you look at the market future price

25:46was 135 but market settled at 122

25:50market settled at 122. so we know that

25:53sometime market

25:54no know settles within this range market

25:57settles within this range like sometime

25:58you see

25:59it is like you know lesser than 24 in

26:02this case it is lesser than 17

26:04in this case it is lesser than 16 in

26:06this case it is

26:07greater than 13 sometime it is greater

26:09sometime it is widely greater

26:11right but we want to know how many times

26:14out of this 2.4 lakh

26:16sample because we should not be excited

26:18by seeing one or few attempts

26:19that's why often i tell people don't

26:22judge

26:22your system don't judge someone's system

26:25just by looking at limited sample

26:27of course that's a very common statement

26:28so i i just want to

26:30tell you people on this one i think

26:32that's a pretty advanced piece here now

26:34let me take that out so if you look at

26:37the

26:39if you look at the overall sample i hope

26:41you guys can see this bell-shaped curve

26:45okay now this bell-shaped curve is not

26:48something is my invention it's just

26:50after all the discovery

26:52okay and thanks to the bell shaped curve

26:54because this is pretty common behavior

26:56since it is also happening here that add

26:59lot to my confidence

27:00so look at this what exactly means to me

27:04with this okay now i'll just do this

27:06calculation for you

27:07let me do this by taking this now i'm

27:10dividing this 2985

27:12and divided by this

27:16okay don't worry about this excel

27:17formulas and all other stuff pretty

27:19irrelevant

27:20if you are not you know familiar about

27:21this excel okay let me tell you what it

27:23is okay now i'm going to divide this

27:26let me

27:29okay now look at this the reason why i

27:32do everything right in front of you

27:34people is

27:35probably that add a bit to your

27:37confidence right

27:38so we we thought of doing it along with

27:40you people okay now look at this

27:41uh with this back tested like you know

27:44there are uh 18 000 times

27:48okay the futures the market expired

27:51slightly below the current market price

27:53that what this 18 000 indicates there

27:55are

27:56out of at 2.4 lakh attempts

27:59okay i think precisely saying 2.34 lakh

28:04it's 18 000 attempts were marginally

28:06settled lower there are 16 000 times

28:08it's

28:09settled a 50 percent of the premium 50

28:12of the premium okay well then what do

28:13you mean by this

28:14uh you know a 50 of the premium i said

28:16at the money call premium at the money

28:18put premium

28:19let's say if it is 100 rupees market

28:21settled below 50 rupees market settled

28:23below 50 rupees

28:24i hope you manage to understand it right

28:26if not

28:27have a patience don't give up just see

28:29this video maybe about again

28:3110 minutes prior to it see this video

28:33again if not take a break

28:35watch this video by tomorrow you can

28:36save this now to watch later

28:39or probably you can bookmark it or you

28:40can schedule yourself to watch this

28:42but do watch this and i know

28:46you have to watch this throughout and

28:48you will find it pretty interesting okay

28:49now get back to the subject here

28:52and you see that it is a pretty common

28:55common behavior for the market to settle

28:58around at the current level i think if

29:01you are familiar about the statement

29:02mostly market revolves

29:05around the range market exhibit the

29:07range bound behavior

29:09and this is the proof for that okay

29:11although the market witnessed the

29:13volatility it was not most of the time

29:15of course

29:16these are all the ends if the market

29:18goes we lose money of course

29:20okay we call that as a talent risk okay

29:23now let me go back to this

29:25i know if if you ask me uh in this

29:28in this video that's what actually shown

29:30here in this this is what i know

29:34uh shown in this particular video i

29:36think uh

29:37i should be having this particular thing

29:38uh you know

29:41okay now look at this let me calculate

29:44this

29:45110 okay i'm taking this 110 okay till

29:49this 110 okay 110

29:51when you when i take everything the sum

29:53shows here which is 68.3 percent and

29:56i look at my mouse okay i'm this is

29:58something which i can't zoom

30:00okay but i'm actually showing at the

30:01bottom of the screen i hope you guys can

30:03see there is something called 68.3

30:06by adding all this 4.3 5.7 if

30:09if it is interested you guys can take a

30:10calculator and add it you get to know

30:12something 68.3 so out of uh out of 2

30:162.3 lakh there are close to

30:19there are close to 1.6 lakh times the

30:23market revolves within the premium

30:26with this fact you should gain

30:28confidence at least you should believe

30:30it most of you

30:31are aware of this concept of at the

30:33money premium but with this you can

30:35believe

30:36it probably you can start working on it

30:38if not this time next time it can

30:40happen most of the time it is happening

30:42see as an option trader

30:44don't build a strategy which works once

30:46and nine times it goes wrong

30:48because it test your patience better

30:50build a strategy

30:51which works sixty six times or seven

30:54times out of ten

30:55you know if you have a success ratio

30:57close to six to seven now sixty to

30:59seventy you know

31:00that gives a lot more confidence when

31:01you build a strategy i think this is

31:03what that record says

31:04so if that is the case what strategy do

31:06i need to build

31:07i hope uh you know by this time you got

31:10it

31:11let me tell you what is wider range okay

31:13let me tell you what is wider range okay

31:15when i'm talking about the wider range

31:17i'm trying to cover something called

31:19150 okay 100 percent of at the money

31:23premium

31:23is the narrow range the wider range is

31:26something which i'm talking about

31:27150 if i take this study of 150 percent

31:31i have to take it from here which is you

31:33know from this

31:34150 percent on the negative or even on

31:36the upside so i'm not bothered about the

31:38direction

31:39i already told you be it upside the

31:40downside i have 150

31:42cushion okay now if i take it you see

31:45something close to eighty three point

31:47four percent

31:48okay now forget about the round number

31:50close to sixty five percent

31:52and eighty percent i think that's fair

31:55minimal expectation one has one

31:56sixty five percent you expect it to be

31:58right and 80 percent you expect it to be

32:01right if you have a wider range in the

32:03market

32:04but morgan how do i see this wider range

32:07why do i how do i get this wider range

32:09more can you give me one more example

32:11you know with that let me it doesn't

32:14matter even if i stretch the video

32:15let me give you this example okay now

32:17look at this how do i get the wider

32:18range

32:19now if you ask me what are the wider

32:21range here which is 11

32:23765 11 765 with this if you want the

32:27wider range

32:28as well as our back testing is concerned

32:30which is 150 percent

32:32so if that is the case like you know the

32:33250 it's close to 220

32:36220 into 150

32:40220 into 150 percent which is close to

32:44330 which is nothing but 330.

32:48so 330 on top of it which works out to

32:51be 12 000

32:52and 330 on the downside 330 on the

32:57downside

32:57which close to 11 430 or odd okay

33:02i think the market got 80 chances to get

33:05expired within that range i think i hope

33:09you got some meaningful idea if not

33:10just crawl back for about a couple of

33:12minutes and watch this again

33:14you will get it let me quickly get

33:16further concepts

33:17okay now with this what you got it at

33:20the money premium

33:21has lot to convey in terms of

33:24probability

33:25if you know how to build a strategy on

33:27the narrow range

33:28okay you go ahead and form it but if

33:31you're in the narrow range

33:32make it about 100 and believe that your

33:35success ratio will be close to 65

33:36percent

33:37accordingly you plan your risk to reward

33:40and if you are constructing something on

33:41the broader range you get a

33:43better success ratio okay you've got a

33:46better probability

33:47but make sure that you get a fairly a

33:50reasonable

33:51risk for the returns okay but for that

33:53you need to understand the risk adjusted

33:55returns for that

33:56but believe understand one thing sir

33:58although we have the

34:00success ratios are in our favor there is

34:02a tail risk

34:03sometime market can go you know three to

34:06four

34:06times away from that those scenarios can

34:10wipe you and me out of the picture so

34:13always

34:14mind your risk i think when you when you

34:17when you really want to play it it's

34:19good to have a

34:20partly hate strategies or fully hit

34:22strategies when you actually bet

34:23something on non-directionals

34:25okay but you have to even if you have a

34:28marginal returns okay

34:29that's far better if you have a piece of

34:31maker because you see there is a tail

34:33risk of course you see there is a tail

34:35risk

34:35most of the time below 300 that the

34:37significant contributions where are

34:39beyond three times of this a significant

34:41contributions were there

34:43okay now i hope uh you know this this

34:45range probabilities were pretty clear

34:47for most of you

34:48people let me actually go and i know

34:51in terms of just summarizing that

34:52particular thing so you you now by this

34:54time got most of the time the markets

34:56were settling within this trading range

34:59now you should form a strategy now you

35:01should form a strategy i hope

35:03i've already explained you in terms of

35:04how to pick up this narrow range and the

35:06broader range

35:07of course if you want to pick up two

35:08times of the premium it gets even wider

35:11in that case the success ratio tends to

35:12be more but if you build a strategy for

35:14a very wider range

35:16you get a peanuts okay so there is a

35:18trade-off do i need to be with one

35:20or one just to find that's an art i hope

35:24you

35:24get a lot of these content as we move

35:27forward as well

35:28okay okay with all this finding

35:31what are we gonna do okay let me tell

35:34you one thing

35:35you can build a strategy like i

35:36encounter or you can build a strategy

35:38like butterfly you can build a

35:40strategies like

35:41straddle and strangles but remember one

35:43thing if you build a strategies okay

35:45if if you build a strategy which is

35:46let's say if it is a straddle or

35:48strangle

35:49there is a tail risk okay when a market

35:51you know

35:52exhibits a larger home although it's

35:55maybe about a four percent or a

35:57four percent or about less than five

35:59percent but those four percent should

36:01not

36:01wipe you out right so you should mind

36:04your risk really well

36:05so if you are really pro at handling

36:08your trades

36:09then you can actually go with strangles

36:10and strangles if not

36:12better be with the butterfly which is a

36:14fully hedged right

36:15a fully hedged strategies so it's better

36:18be with the you know

36:19and by the way this is not the video

36:20where i'm going to explain you about

36:22each and every strategy for that

36:25you know with relevant to this

36:27particular uh

36:28way of trading we may come up with few

36:30but otherwise you can

36:32go and check out our you know previous

36:33videos we have posted in the

36:36channel okay and i encounter maybe you

36:38know it's it's

36:39a fully hedged strategies i think you

36:42should probably work

36:43an either of iron core an iron condor or

36:45a butterfly but if you're a pro who know

36:47how to handle straddles in strangle

36:49then of course you with this you will

36:52definitely gain probability

36:53believe me by this time you should have

36:56got some insights

36:57but to retain it okay you should

37:00practice it

37:00because just by seeing or watching a

37:02video doesn't mean

37:04you get everything of course this is

37:06where you got something but

37:08you have to practice it okay for that

37:11i request you uh i know every day you

37:14guys can even

37:16you know figure out the trading range of

37:18the market and you can actually document

37:20it

37:21okay and if you're a pro you guys can

37:22actually do a back testing of those

37:24things as well

37:25okay so but the point is do i need to be

37:28along it with iron contour or short with

37:30this

37:30longer short really depends on the risk

37:32to reward i get it because we know the

37:34probability okay we know the probability

37:37okay we know the probability but the one

37:39more thing is

37:40risk to reward am right risk to reward

37:44risk to reward is risk to reward

37:47that really depends on the current

37:49premium prevailing premiums okay the

37:51current premiums

37:52by any chance the prevailing premiums

37:55were not

37:55offering me the expected risk to reward

37:58better i

37:59don't go for a long rather i can go for

38:01a shot so

38:02i think mostly we go for uh you know the

38:05the

38:05iron corner or short butterflies i think

38:08various ways by which we can actually

38:09make money

38:10but you should be really good at

38:12understanding to be with

38:13long or a short by understanding the

38:15probability and risk to reward

38:17i think that's that all together it's a

38:19lengthy video

38:21which probably i can dedicate to another

38:23video

38:24where i can tell you with what

38:26probability or what risk to reward

38:28to decide a long or short of these

38:30strategies i think that itself gonna

38:32take uh you know

38:33uh probably a one-hour video and by any

38:35chance if you feel that good

38:37uh the video looks good but something

38:39i'm missing maybe because it's not uh

38:42you are interacting with me you are not

38:44having a conversation with me i think uh

38:46prior to this video a lot of you people

38:48having watched my video

38:50you guys somehow i know i think you guys

38:52can get my phone number even through

38:54uh you know a lot of you people are

38:56calling uh you know maybe through me or

38:58to our executives

39:00if it is a one-line question you know

39:02maybe you're a client or a not a client

39:04we will definitely answer a question if

39:06it is one line of question in a moment

39:07if i can answer your question

39:09so feel free about calling us if you

39:10have one line of question but if you

39:12have

39:13you know a pretty lengthy question if

39:15you have something more to

39:17interact of course uh we can't answer

39:19everyone's question

39:20uh no over the phone call conversation

39:22for that we have a dedicated training

39:24program so let me

39:25just take you through you know you know

39:27it's not going to be much then i'll take

39:28you through

39:29the the put call ratio but let's let's

39:32just give you something okay

39:34we have a online training program i hope

39:36you guys can see the couple of uh one

39:38which is option trading strategies for

39:40the beginner

39:40the other one is option chain analysis

39:42for the pro okay

39:44and we primarily recommend most of you

39:47people should fall in the category of

39:48the

39:48beginners because if you if you get the

39:50fundamentals really well

39:52only then the pro level program makes

39:54sense to you so don't get excited or

39:56curious to go to a pro level straight

39:58away

39:58and better you actually undergo the

40:00beginner level program and

40:02have a patience of practicing it really

40:04well before you get into a pro

40:06because with that with the wisdom what

40:08you get in the beginner

40:09you understand the pro really well okay

40:12but

40:12what is the advantage of taking this

40:14particular program of course

40:16we we charge a fairly low when compared

40:18to i know the market

40:20not because i know the program is short

40:24rather we see this our program

40:27you know makes much more sense of you

40:29know

40:31the pricing is something altogether

40:32different and we have a limited audience

40:34okay we have a very limited audience

40:37in a way you get a time to interact okay

40:39there you

40:40buy our time and we go for conversations

40:43and

40:44there we are not there to deliver what

40:46we have in our mind

40:47when you look at this video i am

40:48delivering something what i have in my

40:50mind

40:50but when you look at the you know when

40:52you really look at a training program

40:54when you when you really look at a

40:56training program

40:57i know we first look at what is your

40:59expectations accordingly we deliver it

41:01so of course we have ongoing sessions

41:03you guys can find a slots

41:04and if you are interested you can

41:05definitely go for it if you are if you

41:07are taking a pro level program there is

41:08an eligibility test you have to undergo

41:10and then you will be eligible what am i

41:12trying to convey here

41:14you know when you take up a training

41:16program our school of thought gonna be

41:18same so that helps us to have ongoing

41:20conversations going forward

41:21and that makes me to answer in one line

41:23going forward any of your questions

41:26and there we find lot more time to have

41:29the interaction

41:30there we find a time to understand you

41:32to provide a support for you

41:34that's the reason why we have a limited

41:35session just because online we don't

41:37have hundreds of people or 50s of people

41:38which is going to have a 20 max to max

41:4025 and we make sure that everybody gets

41:43a chance

41:43to understand the content okay let me go

41:45along with the content again

41:47i hope this non-directional strategies

41:49gets better

41:50but now i'm going to give you a some

41:53directional bias

41:55using a put call ratio most of you must

41:57be familiar about this all right

41:59most of you must be familiar about this

42:01put call ratio very very popular one

42:03okay

42:04and the the general understanding is if

42:06you see

42:07a no a lot of if you see a significant

42:10put over a

42:11call okay if you see a significant put

42:13option then the market seems to be

42:15oversold

42:16the market so in a way we see the slide

42:19towards on that side

42:20and if you see a significant call

42:22options and we see

42:23that's the general notion of put call

42:25study right

42:26if you have a significant call of call

42:28options okay where the writers were in

42:30place we see the price to go down

42:32and if the significant put options were

42:34already on the open interest we see the

42:36put option the price tends to go up but

42:40we wanted to know does it really happen

42:42right so when i go back to this

42:44you may be you know interested to know

42:48okay if you look at this particular you

42:51know

42:52record okay if i unhide this

42:55okay you if you are if you if you are

42:58curious to see what exactly this

42:59spreadsheet all about okay uh you might

43:02have seen our

43:03scanner right sometime back i was

43:05showing you a scanner in our website

43:07i think uh this is the scanner you see

43:08that you know if i take a

43:10stock which is significant call option

43:12okay if i take a stock which are trading

43:14with significant call options

43:16you'll see the list here okay but i

43:18wanted to know what happened to this

43:20stocks

43:21as on that expiry so any any scanners

43:23what we have we should

43:24you know try to optimize the performance

43:27right and then we as a research team we

43:29wanted to learn by seeing what market

43:31really ready to teach us so look at this

43:34we we have documented this

43:37we have documented this okay and this

43:40helps us to know

43:41what works under what market condition

43:43of course so if you look at the

43:45significant call options and put options

43:47now i am going to focus on this

43:49the rest of the conditions probably we

43:51see in other videos or sometime later

43:53as far as this video is concerned i just

43:55gonna take a put call ratio okay

43:56if i take a put call ratio you guys can

43:58see that it's not every time we get this

44:00filter okay there are uh you know there

44:03are few instances like you know

44:04on as far as the amtec auto on 2015

44:07exhibited okay

44:08the significant call option if you want

44:10some reason record let me go down and

44:13make you to feel better okay if i go

44:15down

44:16as if like you know maybe you know if i

44:20go down and if i see this record okay if

44:23i take this record

44:24and if you look at a significant put and

44:26call option okay significant call

44:28options

44:28which as of 8th of november okay

44:318th november of 2019 okay let's let's

44:35take 2020 record

44:36let's take 2020 september or

44:40maybe like you know a couple of page up

44:43not to waste much of your time okay

44:44let's say 18

44:45september 18th acceptable significant

44:48put options

44:48which company let's see which company it

44:50is apollo hospital

44:51okay on 18th to september if you want to

44:53verify go and check

44:55the price must be 1831 the future price

44:57must be 1831

44:59and at the money price is 18 1840

45:02and the call and put price of 1840 is 34

45:05and 44 respectively

45:07okay and when i look at the uh the put

45:09call ratio of taking

45:10all the open interest of call and put it

45:13it was suggesting as there is a

45:14significant put options

45:16okay it was a significant put options

45:17but we need to know whether does it

45:19really move up or down

45:20right but in this case the market

45:22managed to go up from that level because

45:24because the day when we have studied

45:26that was

45:271831 that day when we studied the market

45:30is 1831

45:31but on the expiry the market was 1941

45:34so the markets really went up in fact

45:36which is 110 points

45:38whereas the premium was only 79 points

45:40it in fact beyond that the range

45:42what it really happened when you formed

45:44the strategy you might have lost money

45:45but remember one thing

45:46that the most of the time that the

45:48record shows it is settling before

45:50so that's the reason why people you know

45:52with lack of

45:54system lack of data study they don't

45:57stick to a system

45:58that is the common reason why people

46:00miss out these strategies they lose

46:02confidence on it okay now coming back to

46:03the put call ratio here

46:05okay let me go back to this and i gonna

46:08delete this

46:09okay and i am going to just introduce

46:12one component here okay for you people

46:15just to understand it better i'm going

46:16to introduce i think if those were

46:18familiar about this pivot table will

46:20also agree upon this whatever i'm doing

46:22it

46:23i'm actually going to take this you know

46:26a put call ratio which is pcr analysis

46:28if i take this pcr analysis on top of it

46:30you guys can see something like this

46:32okay okay now

46:34remember if i take a call option

46:38look at this i want everyone to pay

46:39attention here there's a call option if

46:42i go to output option okay you guys can

46:45see a difference q

46:47look at this can you see there is a

46:48change in skew

46:50just see that that it's going to change

46:52this q look at this it is going to shift

46:54slightly

46:54if i say significant call the skew is

46:57going to be towards the

46:58left hand side towards the negative side

47:00look at this

47:02towards the skew is towards the left and

47:04if i take this particular one

47:07towards the right you i you you will not

47:10be seeing a drastical skew

47:12because market follows some efficiency

47:15so if it is a

47:16drastical skew of course the contrarian

47:18player will start coming into the

47:20picture and takes the

47:21opportunity and it actually makes the

47:23market to revolve around the equation so

47:25even if you find any technical concepts

47:28by nature it will not be right by 80

47:31times or 90 times

47:32try to understand those things will

47:34revolve around the mean

47:35but you see a marginal difference so

47:37your system may be

47:38right by 55 times 60 times in a way that

47:41system is doing

47:42fairly better if you believe that if you

47:44want the system to be right 80 times 90

47:46times

47:47i mean the directionally i think your

47:50expectations were not fair okay even on

47:52this grounds even

47:53on this grounds if you look at the put

47:54options and call options okay now

47:57let me put on both in front of you then

47:59with the difference in the color you

48:01guys can see

48:01i want everyone to be patient to watch

48:03this the orange

48:05color what you see is actually higher

48:08than the blue

48:09after the positive ranges look at the

48:12positive 10 to 20 everything is positive

48:14this is all minus 30 to minus 11 minus

48:1672 minus

48:17in this case the the blues are quite

48:20high okay now

48:21let's understand what is blue and words

48:23orange okay when the call options

48:25when if if the significant calls were

48:28there

48:29then it ended up mostly on the negative

48:32side the

48:32if if it is qualified as a significant

48:35call

48:36it was ended up in the negative side if

48:38it was ended up if it is a significant

48:40put

48:41then it is ended up on the positive side

48:43so i think it actually fairly gives us a

48:45clue

48:46so by any chance okay now look at this

48:49by any chance if you have a stocks i

48:50think this is as of today 16th october

48:53i'm recording this maybe

48:54around 9 or 10. by the way remember we

48:57have already posted the same video

48:59but there was a lot of issues i messed

49:01up something with the mic or

49:03something went wrong when we have the

49:05converted this video

49:06so i am redoing this video once again

49:09all this happens in one stretch

49:11and it is last time the video is about

49:1250 minutes again i am recording this

49:14video once again for the 50 minutes

49:15because a lot of

49:16our subscribers given me a you know a

49:19comment stating that it was a

49:21noise you know the voice was not good so

49:24when i am taking an efforts not i know

49:27to come up with this

49:29you can also contribute back to equis

49:32i humbly request you people why not you

49:34guys can share this video

49:36when you watch this video find some

49:38sense out of it do share this video

49:40and you express yourself by liking it if

49:43you watch this video

49:44till this minute you might have find

49:46found some sense to it

49:47so why not you instantly you know not

49:50just liking it

49:51do share this when you share it in the

49:52whatsapp or facebook

49:54we we generally tell the people but it i

49:56know

49:57rarely happens when it happens it makes

50:00wonder to us

50:00no help us okay now let me tell you in

50:02this case a significant call options

50:05look at these stocks got a better

50:07chances of

50:08slightly closing lower range i mean

50:11lower

50:12doesn't mean it is going to be negative

50:15although it is look at this

50:16although it is a significant look at

50:18this one although

50:20it is a significant caller significant

50:22put

50:23mostly look at the break even mostly

50:25market revolves around minus 10 to plus

50:279 i mean

50:28minus 10 to plus 9 the market revolves

50:30around this range that's a factor

50:32it means what although it is bullish or

50:36a bearish

50:37most of the time market doesn't make

50:39much more that's the

50:40key takeaway so even if it is a

50:43positively skewed no

50:44positively biased or negatively biased

50:47don't underestimate the current level

50:49that is the reason why in any of our

50:51trading strategies we give

50:52a more important to the theta so at the

50:55current level if the theta is in our

50:56favor

50:57most likely you end up making money

50:59right that's that's why a lot of people

51:00say option writers makes money it's not

51:02option writers are

51:03you know pro to make money option

51:06writers got some statistical advantage

51:08uh the reason why they make money but

51:10they do lose money

51:11when they see the talent happens tail

51:13risk happens

51:14so you should know how to manage your

51:16positions as well okay coming back to

51:17this look at this

51:19in this case it is negatively skewed

51:21because it is lot of call option

51:23and in this case it is positively skewed

51:25because it is the

51:26put option okay but don't form a bullish

51:30or a very strategy

51:31do a non-directional strategy with some

51:34directional bias

51:35how do i do that morgan with pcr

51:37directional bias if you understand this

51:39the last 10-15 minutes what you guys can

51:42do is

51:43instead of forming a butterfly i think

51:45the butterfly is this i hope

51:46this is the butterfly i'm right this is

51:48the butterfly where we have a

51:50kind of risk and some good returns if a

51:52market settles within that particular

51:54trading range

51:55but why not if you see a significant uh

51:57put option if you see a significant put

51:59option

52:00then the market tends to go slightly on

52:02the upside then probably you keep this

52:04as a

52:05marginal profit or a no profit no loss

52:06instead of taking a risk because you

52:08know

52:08it is a quite a good chance for the

52:09market to settle in this range

52:11or probably you can adjust the shift in

52:14a way to make money

52:16this is a modified butterfly okay as i

52:18told you i'm not going to explain about

52:19those strategies but if you are not even

52:21familiar about these strategies

52:23you should definitely consider our the

52:26beginners level training program

52:28and of course we make this program also

52:30fairly interactive and

52:32affordable for you people and of course

52:34we have some

52:35coupons for you people to attempt it

52:37okay now

52:38let's go back to the quiz okay the

52:41moment i say

52:42something to practice people see it as a

52:44conclusion they don't proceed further

52:46okay let me tell you one thing unless

52:48otherwise you practice what are you

52:49gonna retail it

52:50okay now here's the first challenge okay

52:53i want you people to go to

52:54nifty now okay go to nifty

52:57okay go to nifty option chain okay go to

53:00nifty option

53:01same and find the okay by the way

53:05i believe you guys can see this video

53:06anytime you guys can

53:08see the video by 2021 2022 anytime i see

53:12this is

53:12evergreen concept so anytime you go and

53:15see the option chain

53:17okay that particular day tell me what is

53:19the at the money strike

53:21okay and give me plus atm and minus atm

53:24and try to answer this question

53:25and tell me what are the narrow range

53:27for that

53:29for i know one round of premium one

53:31round of premium one at the money

53:33premium

53:33or minus one at the mini premium okay

53:36and if you are a pro

53:37i know i recommend you to reply me in

53:40the comment section or you can also

53:41suggest other people response

53:43and i try to respond but i can't and i

53:45alone cannot

53:46answer everybody's comment so if you

53:48take an efforts no we can actually work

53:50on it

53:50okay here's the second question here's

53:52the second question i think this

53:54question got the answer in the video so

53:56this is a question test i know i know

53:59your

53:59understanding of throughout the video so

54:01the answer is already hidden

54:02inside this video if you're unable to

54:04answer this question you

54:06have to you have to rewatch this video

54:08again

54:09okay the probability of settling the

54:11broader market broader range i mean 150

54:13percent

54:14okay and which is 65 percent or 81

54:17percent i think it's it's 81.65 just

54:20rounded up number okay it's 65 to 68

54:22even if it is okay 81 to 85 percent

54:25it's something in between but i want you

54:27people to answer this

54:28okay as a as a matter of uh appreciation

54:32okay instead of just leaving without

54:34answering it why not you go below in the

54:36comment section and answer the question

54:37okay

54:38and here is the advanced question if you

54:40are a pro

54:41okay if you know how to form option

54:43trading strategies i already told you to

54:44create longer short i think this

54:46question

54:46was really important for you to answer

54:48it when you have a 65

54:50success ratio when when you are when you

54:52are when you have a probability of being

54:54right is 65 percent

54:56what should be the minimal risk to

54:58reward for you to break even

55:00what should be the minimal risk to

55:02reward for you to break even okay for

55:04that

55:04if you know how to answer it it's fairly

55:06good uh i know uh otherwise you guys can

55:09expect my answers after a while maybe

55:11about one or two weeks before that i

55:12hope

55:13some will answer that a lot of you

55:14people can even comment that are

55:16probably

55:17like that so that it gets on top of it

55:20hope you find this

55:22video fairly you know good and if you if

55:24you really wanted to you know

55:26practice some strategies okay uh we i

55:28can still recommend you to

55:30you know um i can i can definitely

55:34recommend you you guys can go to

55:35something called uh you know

55:37we have something called primer and you

55:39guys can log in i think this is a portal

55:42specifically for uh building option

55:44strategies like

55:45you know

55:49okay now i hope you guys can see this

55:51portal i think it's a

55:52very interesting portal if you get into

55:54it like so if i say access bank okay

55:57i think access bank has i think as if

56:05okay now access bank price is 473 am

56:09right access bank price is 473 as of

56:11today and you see that the chart here

56:13and of course for you to understand the

56:14trading range if you scroll down you see

56:17where the maximum open interest this is

56:18all general option chain analysis

56:20and if you look at this 32 rupees ranges

56:22there 32 rupees range from here

56:23means a close to 510 on top of it so i

56:27have a 510 on top of it resistance and

56:29the price action also says 5 10. look at

56:31this

56:32the 473 the price action also four seven

56:34four five ten there is a resistance

56:36on downside the support uh it's not a

56:39support

56:40the trading range the most likely range

56:42for the market is below 32 points

56:44so which is around 440 so 440 i think

56:47uh if you look at this the market is

56:49expected to be a five at this range or

56:51at this range

56:52accordingly you guys can know express

56:54your opinion and you can submit your

56:55strategies

56:56and the strategies whatever you have

56:58submitted okay and you guys can even

57:00build strategies you can look at other

57:01people's strategies as well

57:03you can even form strategies for other

57:04people as well

57:06okay like uh you know if i think i've

57:08got someone posted on itc i can actually

57:10go and build strategies

57:11and i know that itc is something which

57:13was trading around 166

57:15and you know the premium may be

57:17something close to

57:18uh if i if i if i want to be right with

57:21in front of you people

57:22so never be lazy of doing something so

57:24let's do it along with you people

57:26now the premium is three to four close

57:28to seven or eight rupees premium

57:29right so eight rupees of premium so the

57:32trading range is something which is

57:33eight rupees on up and down 172.

57:35so if i sell it is 1772 what i guess

57:38what i can do is

57:39no uh i can sell this 172 uh call option

57:43i can sell this

57:44you know 8 plus 1 72

57:48which is 6 rupees here 16. so this good

57:50option of course there is a wider range

57:52that the quite a good chance we get

57:54money of making this particular one and

57:56we probably lose money for market goes

57:58beyond this range

57:58right okay remember uh the chances for

58:01us to lose money

58:03is there for market goes beyond this

58:05particular range but you need to know

58:06what are the probability of things going

58:08beyond so you need to find the

58:09break-even you get the break-even

58:11negative break-even positive break-even

58:12all these things what maximum profit you

58:14guys can do everything

58:15of course this helps a lot for you to

58:17interact with us or interact with our

58:19other audience

58:20so hope you uh you know uh find sense uh

58:23you know in this particular video um

58:27but to really you know add up your

58:29confidence remember one thing

58:32uh instead of believing in your instinct

58:34you better go with

58:36numbers okay because uh this is a sample

58:39size of

58:40close to two lakh things so better go

58:41with that but

58:43before you execute your trades do your

58:44research as well okay and

58:46if you're convinced only then you trade

58:48if not it's the the trading risk

58:50appetite

58:51solely belongs to the the viewers okay

58:54and not just as a disclaimer and it

58:55should be fair and most importantly okay

58:58now i just want to share something

59:00uh the incident which happened last time

59:02you know in our

59:04i think there was a gentleman who called

59:07me and he asked me to watch his whatsapp

59:09status you know

59:11and uh you know i was surprised to see

59:13his watchtop status it was a link

59:16okay i think it was a link and that was

59:18a link from our

59:19uh the previous video i i remember i

59:22think that must be this

59:23video which is the video what you people

59:25are seeing it

59:26i think this this was the video of this

59:28one okay and

59:30because here you see something which is

59:32the

59:33the very different option chain analysis

59:35which is

59:37if you if you look at this particular

59:38one which is a multi-dimensional

59:40option chain analysis along with the

59:42price and he was looking at this

59:44particular tool for a very long time and

59:46there was

59:47close to you know and i think he must be

59:50someone who is even conducting the

59:51training program for he has a lot of

59:53followers too

59:54and what he said is he kept this link in

59:56his

59:57you know this video link in the whatsapp

01:00:00status

01:00:00and that made us to see that a good

01:00:03number of people

01:00:03started finding it easy remember such

01:00:07activities motivate us a lot

01:00:09you know because when you find something

01:00:11good

01:00:12you should express yourself that

01:00:14motivates and that makes us to work

01:00:16remember it was no i i'm not i'll tell

01:00:19you something which which about

01:00:20a few minutes before i think you see

01:00:22that the three hours before we posted

01:00:23this video already

01:00:25i hope you guys can see this there is a

01:00:26video been already posted this video is

01:00:28what i'm recording has been already

01:00:30posted

01:00:30okay and i'm gonna redo this and a lot

01:00:33of people gave me a feedback could not

01:00:34enjoy this video i hope you guys can see

01:00:36like you know

01:00:37uh because the video the audios were not

01:00:39clear right so i

01:00:40i really appreciate have done analysis

01:00:42wonderful topics

01:00:44first past six years okay now i think uh

01:00:46some of you have got some

01:00:48feedback probably excellent but so poor

01:00:50uh video

01:00:52poor audio where audio am i right so the

01:00:54idea is no please record this video once

01:00:56again with a better mic

01:00:58okay now i have taken the efforts to

01:01:00record it again

01:01:01in a matter of three hours i hope you

01:01:03guys can see this is just the google

01:01:04timing

01:01:05right in a matter of three hours i have

01:01:07taken a video and

01:01:08uh to post it uh so in this

01:01:11comment in this and i gonna put it in

01:01:14the link also the upcoming video and

01:01:15we're gonna delete this particular one

01:01:18but remember one thing you should also

01:01:20support us by sharing the video

01:01:21if we see just about hundreds of views

01:01:23or thousands of views

01:01:25does it really motivates to come up with

01:01:27another video

01:01:28so i want you people to fairly support

01:01:30us in terms of

01:01:32i know you may be better than us in

01:01:34terms of helping us to find a better

01:01:36views

01:01:37so i leave it to you people just to

01:01:38motivate us thanks for

01:01:40being till this minute all the way hope

01:01:43uh i know you find a better traits going

01:01:45forward thank you

01:01:47thanks for joining us

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