A simple, non directional option strategy works - EQSIS
EQSIS2020-10-16
non directional option strategy#Straddle#strangle#EQSIS option chain filter#back tested strategy#eqsis#butterfly option strategy#iron condor#tail risk in option strategy#volatility
53K views|3 years ago
💫 Short Summary
The video discusses non-directional options trading strategies, emphasizing the importance of understanding market ranges, volatility, and probabilities. It highlights risk management, the significance of standard deviation, and the impact of call and put options on market trends. The speaker encourages viewers to practice, analyze data, and develop successful trading strategies to optimize performance. The video also introduces a beginner's training program and emphasizes the importance of sharing and engaging with the content for continued support and growth.
✨ Highlights
📊 Transcript
✦
Understanding market ranges is crucial for successful non-directional options trading strategies.
02:32Risks and benefits of bullish and bearish positions, including long positions, call options, and spreads, are explained in detail.
Patience and faith are emphasized as key factors in mastering these strategies for increased trading confidence and success.
Viewers are encouraged to test their understanding by answering key questions about market direction.
The video aims to provide valuable insights and back-tested results to enhance option trading skills.
✦
Non-directional strategies for making money in the market.
04:28Buying both call and put options can lead to profits regardless of market direction.
Understanding volatility is key for successful options trading.
Volatility is crucial for non-directional strategies, but it also carries risks related to premium costs.
Comprehending volatility as an art form is essential for successful option trading.
✦
Market behavior and trading ranges.
07:15The market tends to revolve around the current level with minimal volatility due to the bell-shaped curve and statistical concepts.
Observations reveal commonalities in market aspects with minimal skew, making timing difficult for traders.
Constructing a trading range involves calculating averages of returns or volatility to predict market movements.
Recording daily percentage gains or losses helps determine overall average performance and predict market behavior.
✦
Understanding Standard Deviation in Market Trends.
10:24Standard deviation shows the concentration of data around the mean in market trends.
One standard deviation covers close to 68% of the population, while two standard deviations encompass a wider range.
Importance of understanding standard deviation for option trading, with option chain analysis providing valuable insights.
Encouragement for viewers to continue learning and find the topic more interesting moving forward.
✦
Importance of understanding market probabilities and risk-reward ratios in making investment decisions.
13:13Back-tested results show 64-68% chances of the market revolving around certain levels.
Taking calculated risks and constructing a strategic approach based on probabilities can lead to profitable outcomes.
Utilizing tools like NSE option chain filter can aid in identifying trading opportunities and optimizing strategies.
Practicing and implementing these concepts can enhance decision-making skills and improve overall trading performance.
✦
Importance of analyzing options data and understanding market expectations.
16:43Emphasis on non-directional strategies and careful decision-making.
Specific examples and calculations related to option prices and potential market movement.
Encouragement to stay informed and attentive to market dynamics for successful trading strategies.
✦
Market analysis predicts a 68% probability of settlement between 11,600 and 11,900.
21:50Backtesting data from 2015 suggests market movements around 1,700.
Call option premium is 50 rupees, put option premium is 53 rupees, totaling 103 rupees.
The market settled at 1,699.8 on January 1, 2015, with potential movement between 1,500 and 1,800.
Verification on the NSE website is advised for additional information.
✦
Discussion on market settlement, future prices, and specific contract details.
23:30Emphasis on the importance of a large sample size for statisticians to make accurate predictions.
Recommendation for limited risk strategies over high and low considerations for market trading.
Conclusion with a call to action for viewers to like, share, and subscribe to support the channel's growth.
✦
Analysis of market settling at different levels and fluctuations in rupees and percentages.
25:20Emphasis on avoiding judgment of systems based on limited samples and showcasing bell-shaped curve as common behavior.
Speaker performs calculations to demonstrate confidence in data, mentioning 18,000 instances of markets expiring below current prices out of 2.4 lakh attempts.
Different scenarios of market settlement highlighted, including marginally lower settlements and premiums at the money for calls and puts.
✦
Key highlights of market behavior analysis.
28:21Market price has settled below 50 rupees, indicating a common range-bound behavior.
Approximately 68.3 percent of the market revolves within the premium range.
To build a successful strategy, aim for a success ratio of 66-70 percent for increased confidence.
The wider range covers 150 percent at the money premium.
✦
Importance of Risk Management in Trading.
34:03Understanding risk-adjusted returns is crucial for successful trading strategies.
Strategies should be based on narrow or broad ranges, with corresponding success ratios.
Caution against tail risks to prevent significant losses.
Managing risk effectively is essential to avoid being wiped out by extreme market movements.
✦
Importance of forming trading strategies based on market ranges for risk management.
35:01Strategies discussed include straddles, strangles, and butterflies for lower risk.
Encouragement for practice, documentation of trading ranges, and backtesting strategies.
Emphasis on decision-making based on risk-to-reward ratios and understanding market probabilities.
Speaker advocates for fully hedged approaches to trading.
✦
Importance of understanding risk to reward ratios in trading decisions.
38:15Assess current premiums and probabilities to determine whether to go long or short.
Mention of trading strategies like iron condor or short butterflies to make money.
Promotion of online training programs for beginners in option trading.
Benefits of mastering fundamentals before advancing to more advanced strategies.
✦
Limited audience interaction during training programs.
41:01Understanding expectations and ongoing conversations with participants is emphasized.
Eligibility tests are required for advanced programs, with personalized support.
The session limits the number of participants for individual attention and content comprehension.
The importance of put call ratios for market analysis and using put and call options to predict market trends is highlighted.
✦
Study on call and put options performance.
43:55Significant call and put options data collected for analysis.
Case study on Apollo Hospital's put options on September 18th, 2020.
Market moved up by 110 points despite prediction of significant put option.
Importance of sticking to a system and having confidence in strategies to avoid missing out on potential gains emphasized.
✦
Analysis of call and put options in the market.
47:04Calls can impact skew towards the left or right side.
Understanding market efficiency and contrarian players' reactions to drastic skews.
Explanation of the difference between blue and orange in call options.
Technical concepts related to the mean and system accuracy in trading decisions.
✦
Importance of sharing and supporting video on social media.
49:34Significance of call options and market range from -10 to +9.
Not underestimating current market level in positively or negatively skewed situations.
Emphasis on managing positions effectively for profitable trading.
Recommendation of non-directional strategies with some directional bias for successful trading outcomes.
✦
Introduction to beginner's level interactive and affordable training program for option chain analysis.
52:26Challenges and quizzes included throughout the video to test understanding.
Advanced questions cover forming trading strategies and calculating risk to reward ratios.
Viewers encouraged to engage by answering questions in the comment section for learning opportunities.
✦
Overview of options trading strategies with a focus on Access Bank stock.
56:09Analysis of current price, resistance and support levels, and potential trading ranges.
Encouragement for viewers to explore different strategies, considering break-even points and maximum profit possibilities.
Emphasis on understanding probabilities in trading and the risk of losing money beyond certain ranges for informed decision-making.
✦
Importance of Audience Interaction
01:00:07Research is crucial before making trading decisions.
Sharing a story about a video link spreading on Whatsapp.
Emphasizing the importance of motivation in trading.
Mentioning the need to re-record a video due to poor audio quality.
✦
Importance of Viewer Support for Channel Growth
01:01:38Encourages viewers to share videos to increase views and motivation for creating more content.
Expresses gratitude for viewer support and hopes for continued engagement to find better ways to improve the channel.
Emphasizes the importance of viewer motivation in generating new video ideas.
Thanks the audience for their ongoing presence and support.
00:02hi everyone this is murudin my semi
00:03registered research analyst
00:05happy to present another interesting
00:07video i hope you must be an option
00:09trader
00:10or even if you are interested to learn
00:12options you must watch this video
00:15if you have a patience to watch this
00:17video without skipping a second
00:20then you will have a serious take away
00:22from this video
00:23because those insights which i gonna
00:26share in this video with the
00:28back tested results that will always
00:31come on top of your mind
00:32whenever you form the option strategy i
00:35hope this video can make that impact
00:38in a way you can stick to a system and
00:41you can sail through
00:42your option trading career with that
00:45hope let me get into this video
00:48so as far as the flow of the content i
00:50gonna begin by explaining what is
00:53non-directional strategy and why do they
00:55exist
00:56for whom it is really makes sense and
00:59then i get into
01:01a few parameters from option chain
01:02analysis because i hope it
01:05really helps while building those
01:06strategies that are needed to
01:09have a better returns over the market
01:12and of course as i said i'm going to
01:14share some of the
01:15a back tested results
01:18which add up lot to your confidence so i
01:22can
01:22i can probably show you those are
01:25samples and all the stuff
01:27as they move forward but when you
01:28conclude this video
01:30you may be in the position to answer
01:31these questions if you're a beginner you
01:33may be the position to answer the first
01:34two questions
01:35but if you're a pro you can answer even
01:37the third question but look at the first
01:39question
01:40you know it's all about how do i
01:42understand the narrow range of the
01:43market
01:44i mean the nifty if you understand the
01:47the the likely range of the market then
01:49you can build strategies on top of it
01:51that's a very common question for any
01:53option trader
01:55and if you know the probability there is
01:57a quite a good chance that you make
01:59money on
02:00as an option trader so these are all
02:03a common thing that an option trader
02:05should understand
02:07while building the strategies i hope you
02:10can actually answer this question
02:12towards the end of the video but if you
02:14know how to answer this video right away
02:16if you are a master in answering this
02:19question then you can probably skip this
02:21complete video
02:23i humbly request you people to have a
02:26faith
02:26and patience because i'm getting into
02:28this video
02:29hoping that you have a patience to watch
02:32in one stretch let's get started what
02:36are non-directional strategies
02:38we know the market sometimes makes a
02:40move on the up sometime it goes down
02:42but sometime it it makes it slightly
02:44difficult to guess the direction
02:46right let's see look at the market here
02:48it plays right at the resistance
02:50by any chance if i have a bullish view
02:52in the market you know what i do
02:53i go and create long positions in future
02:55sometime i buy call options sometime i
02:57create
02:57a bull call spread but remember when the
02:59market goes down i have a downside risk
03:01maybe a limited downside risk maybe a
03:03partial
03:04a premium what i paid is going to be the
03:06risk but remember there is a risk on the
03:08downside so
03:09my bets were on directional am i right
03:12and same is true even if you have a
03:14bearish expectation
03:15you create a positions accordingly but
03:18here also we have a directional risk
03:20we a short position we have a risk on
03:23top side
03:23right so if you are directionally good
03:26then you make money here
03:27but most often we see markets where
03:30clueless about the direction
03:32we may not know what to do with the
03:33market because it's pretty confusing
03:36in those times still there is a way to
03:38make money what we do is
03:40we instead of just buying a call or a
03:42port we buy
03:43call and put in a way for market goes up
03:46i'm happy because of the call
03:47the market goes down i'm happy because
03:49of the put but
03:51as an option trader even most of you
03:52must be aware of it there is a risk
03:54associated because the kind of premium
03:56we pay
03:56to get this position is huge
04:00so market should exhibit a significant
04:03volatility
04:04in a given period of time only when we
04:06make money
04:08so this although it looks
04:10non-directional there is a catch called
04:12volatility
04:13i'll come back to the risk part bit
04:15later but look at this
04:17now instead of creating a long position
04:20within both call and put
04:22even if you create a short positions in
04:24call and put
04:25still you make money on both the
04:27direction so this is also
04:28non-directional
04:30but in this case you expect the
04:32volatility to be
04:34low you you expect the volatility to dry
04:37over a period of time so that you make
04:39money if a market exhibit unusual
04:41volatility or if a market takes
04:43one-sided direction
04:45then you feel bad because there is a
04:47risk associated let me now come back to
04:49the risk part
04:50when you have a long positions if a
04:53market does not exhibit a
04:54volatility you end up losing lot of
04:56premium of course
04:58so there is a loss-making scenario
05:01but that gonna be something which
05:03revolves around the current market price
05:05but if you look at in this case if a
05:08market
05:08hovers around the current level you end
05:10up making money but if a market exhibit
05:13a wider move then you actually incur a
05:15loss so where is the catch
05:17it's all about volatility if you are not
05:20directionally
05:21good there is a way to make money
05:24through non-directional strategies
05:26but here you need to understand the
05:28volatility
05:29so the art of understanding the
05:32volatility
05:33is key for any option trader
05:36i am not getting in much detail about
05:38the volatility rather i'm going to give
05:40you something
05:41which answers to this question
05:44even understanding the volatility is an
05:46art let's get into it
05:48okay see the market makes ups and more
05:51am i right
05:52i have a question for you people now i i
05:55don't know how many of you people
05:56simultaneously watching this video i
05:58humbly request you
06:00to go to the comment section and tell me
06:02whether this
06:03from this level the stock is going to go
06:05up or down
06:07see i am not expecting you to be right
06:09i'm not expecting you to
06:12you know to do all this analysis even if
06:14you make a wild
06:16guess even if you make a wild guess okay
06:19you may be right or you may be wrong so
06:21market got either to go up or to go down
06:24sometime it can even be stagnant
06:26but if you look at the scenario sometime
06:28it goes up sometime it goes down some
06:30people make a guess of the downside
06:33and anything market wish to do it can do
06:35it
06:36but when we look at our records
06:39by taking maybe about 5 years or 10
06:42years or even 20 years or even if you
06:44take
06:44100 years one common scenario
06:48which is happening that most of the time
06:50market revolves at one level which is
06:53you know the the significant
06:55volatilities were shown
06:56at a very rare time most of the time
06:59market
07:00shown a less volatile scenario try to
07:03understand
07:04that it it formed a kind of a
07:06bell-shaped curve
07:07i think those who are familiar about the
07:09statistical concepts i mean
07:11through a distribution we understand
07:13that's i know
07:15it's not excuse no it is something which
07:17is
07:18pretty much uh it's not skew by the way
07:20it pretty much worked towards
07:22at the current level
07:25when you understand this you get to know
07:28how to define the trading range because
07:30most of the time the market will settle
07:33towards the current level
07:34not much of the no more of course there
07:38is a
07:38tail risk which i come back with later
07:40but if you are not able to understand
07:42this light
07:43don't very much because i have some
07:45working examples which makes
07:47lot a lot more easier for you to
07:49understand it so as i move forward i can
07:52make you to understand this at this
07:53moment what i'm trying to tell you is
07:55mostly market revolves around the
07:58current level
07:59that's what i know when you back tested
08:01for so many years
08:02and this is not in the case of market
08:04alone
08:05statistically such observations were
08:09pretty common in various aspects as long
08:12as there is not much of skew because so
08:14this is the reason why even lot of
08:16people makes a statement that market is
08:18also kind of random walk theory
08:20all these bullishness bearishness you
08:22know it's it's slightly difficult to
08:24time the market
08:25okay let's go with the notion let's move
08:27on towards to understand the
08:29things but first of all how do i
08:30understand the trading range like you
08:32know sometime back i said there's a
08:33bell-shaped curve
08:34how do i construct this now if you
08:36really want to know how do i
08:38how do i construct this particular area
08:40there is a pretty simple statistic
08:42concept which i can explain
08:43now in a simple way okay all you people
08:46have to figure out is let's say the
08:48stock has
08:49you know a lot of move over a period of
08:51time
08:52i want you people to take the average if
08:54you want to take the average of returns
08:56you can take it if not
08:57most recommended thing is to average you
08:59know average volatility okay average
09:02move so when you understand this
09:04probably we call this as an average or
09:06in a statistical concepts we say it is
09:08the mean right we we
09:09call it is mean so when you understand
09:11this average
09:12okay what you people have to do is with
09:14with so many records like you know
09:16sometime the market moves plus one
09:17percent
09:18or sometime it goes by minus one percent
09:21sometime it gains
09:220.5 percent or sometimes it loses 0.5
09:25percent
09:26sometime it gains a 0.4 percent with
09:29like you know this may be jan 1 jan 2
09:31jan 3 gen 4 jack 5
09:326 and finally you get the average of
09:35everything
09:36and with all those records we can do
09:38something called a standard deviation
09:40so that actually i know how much
09:42deviation from the mean
09:43so that tells me how concentrated are
09:47they
09:48are they really towards the average is
09:51the average is something which is
09:52reliable
09:53is the market revolving around the
09:54average or is it something which is
09:56beyond the average okay now when you
09:59understand this like you know
10:00when you take one standard deviation it
10:03covers
10:04close to 68 percent of the population
10:06but i don't want to get in detail of the
10:08statistics don't want to confuse you
10:10people
10:10okay even if you are not understanding
10:12these concepts needless to bother
10:14because
10:14the real takeaway is from the next slide
10:17for the beginner but if you are a pro
10:19who wants to understand the subject in
10:21detail probably you should spend time
10:23here as well
10:24so when you have a you know one standard
10:26deviation we get close to a 68 percent
10:29of the population
10:30okay 68 of the population and if you if
10:33you have a two standard deviation
10:35it takes care of the wider range of
10:37course so there is a high probable case
10:40that it fall under your expectations
10:43so remember there is a two thing what we
10:44are trying to understand the standard
10:46deviation is the probable range which
10:48helps us to define like you know
10:50in terms of up and down but murugan
10:53this looks so statistical or this looks
10:56so theoretical
10:57how do i do that as an option trader
10:59instead of doing this
11:01on a statistical way i prefer to
11:04do this with option chain that is where
11:07i believe an option chain analysis can
11:08help
11:09from here on this subject becomes more
11:12relevant to you
11:13and makes it much easier for you to
11:14understand thanks for your patience to
11:16watch this video till this minute
11:18continue this momentum i hope you will
11:20find it much more interesting going
11:22forward
11:23but murgan tell me how do i find it okay
11:25now
11:26just for an example you take a future
11:27price okay step one okay remember
11:30step one you take the future price okay
11:33let's say the future price is
11:34uh thousand five hundred okay the future
11:36price is thousand five hundred
11:38and i want you to understand where the
11:40at the money most likely at the money is
11:42around thousand five hundred
11:43and it must be having a call option and
11:45it must be having a
11:46put option of course okay and this this
11:49is something called at the monies okay
11:51at the money
11:52let's say the call option prices is
11:53something around 75
11:55and put option price is something around
11:5777
11:58okay when you add up to this particular
12:01thing we end up getting like 7
12:02150 152 okay
12:06this at the money range this at the
12:09money range you have to add a pawn
12:12from here which is 1500
12:15plus 152 and minus 152
12:19okay if you do so you end up getting
12:21thousand six
12:22hundred a and this is something like
12:271348
12:28okay now you got a trading range i hope
12:31you people got the trading range
12:32now okay okay how do i got this one six
12:35five
12:35zero five two and one three four eight
12:39and this is just by taking the premiums
12:42and you know it's a one round of premium
12:44on up and one round of premium on the
12:45downside
12:46but i call this as a narrow range okay
12:48now we're good
12:50with this range what are we gonna do
12:52remember
12:53i'm gonna share you some insights okay i
12:56mean the back tested results
12:57there are close to 64 chance okay when
13:00you have
13:01110 instead of 100 okay one if you put
13:04it in the percentage it is hundred
13:05percent okay
13:06if you put it hundred and ten percent
13:08okay it's gonna be 68
13:10chances are there that the market is
13:12going to revolve around here
13:13so having known there are 64 to 68
13:17chances that the market revolves around
13:20there is a pretty
13:21smart way to make money okay for that
13:24you need to know what sort of risk to
13:25reward you have to take
13:27towards because the tail in risk is also
13:29there so
13:30but if you really wanted to take a wider
13:32range you can probably take
13:34two rounds of the premium i mean instead
13:35of taking 152 take another 152.
13:38so you will be having something like
13:391800 here
13:41and here it's about 1200 so
13:44now it's it's around i know 1200 here
13:48so for a market to settle between
13:50thousand eight hundred thousand two
13:51hundred pretty natural anybody a common
13:53man can even say it has a better
13:55probability am i right
13:56but if you know the probability really
13:59well
14:00only then you can even construct a
14:02strategy which can actually help you a
14:04lot
14:05hope uh this light was much better or
14:07much easier than whatever you have seen
14:09it
14:09but i can make it a lot better if you
14:12see some actual numbers
14:13all right so for that uh what we can do
14:16is i want you people to have
14:18a practice along with me so that you
14:21not just see the video you can actually
14:24practice it so that it remains with you
14:27believe me you should actually attempt
14:29it even if you watch this video you can
14:30pass this video
14:32just take your browser just take your
14:34browser and search this option change
14:36filter okay
14:37when you search this option change
14:38filter i hope the google can
14:41list you various options okay and the
14:43very first thing what you have is
14:45nse option chain filter i hope you guys
14:47can see there is something called
14:48nse option same filter okay and i want
14:51you to actually
14:52click on to that particular link to get
14:53into it okay let me do it along with you
14:55so that you know
14:56you can also you know catch it
14:59let me take the browser here okay let me
15:02take the browser here and
15:04let me go from the google itself okay
15:05now if i go to this
15:07google here and if i go and say nse
15:10option chain okay which is option
15:14chain filter okay if i go to option
15:17chain filter as i said you see something
15:19on top of it if you
15:20get into this particular page it's
15:22straight coming to this one the reason
15:24why i
15:24use the google search it gives you the
15:26right link on top of
15:27it but even if you are familiar from a
15:30website if you someone who use
15:31the other scanners and filters you can
15:34pretty much find that
15:35filter at nse options in filter okay and
15:38if you see there are a lot of parameters
15:39here and this is not the video i'm going
15:41to explain
15:42each and every parameter of course if
15:43you wish to learn each and every
15:45parameter
15:45we got another video which was posted i
15:47think a month before okay
15:49and if you look at that particular video
15:50from equals all you have to do is just
15:52go and search eq sis
15:54and you i hope you guys can see this uh
15:57you know the
15:57the channel here and this this is a
15:59video i hope uh you know
16:01uh is this is the video i hope uh
16:05option chain filter with historical open
16:06interest chart i think that this video
16:09if if time permits i'll add this card
16:11link on top of it okay let's get into
16:13the chapter
16:15so i i'm going to focus on a couple of
16:18things here okay now i'm going to focus
16:20on put call ratio
16:21okay which i come a later part of the
16:23video okay
16:24and and if you see there is a plus mark
16:27here
16:28okay this is a filter i know makes it
16:30easier for you to guess the
16:32not guess to see the uh at the money
16:35call premium at the money put premium so
16:37you know i think this is a record which
16:40was updated as of 16th october i think
16:43as on friday okay
16:44and when i look at the acc the prices is
16:47thousand five hundred and sixty six
16:49and then it is true the at the money
16:51must be 1560
16:53which is a closer one and the call
16:56option price is 52 and the put option
16:58price is 46.
16:59so when you add up both you get close to
17:02100
17:02right when you get close to 100 rupees
17:05right actually
17:0598 but you know on the round number i
17:08take hundred
17:09so if someone is asking me what is the
17:10range okay now i want you people to
17:12focus here okay now look at the
17:14future price one five six six one five
17:16six six okay one five six six
17:18now i'm not gonna add up on to the at
17:20the money strike price okay i'm going to
17:22take this range which is 52 plus 46
17:2452 plus 46 with this particular one okay
17:28so if someone is asking me what sort of
17:30moves expected for this expiry this
17:32expired is 29th october okay 29th
17:34october
17:35and today we are starting at 16th
17:37october so we have a close to 14 days
17:39and we have a
17:40maybe close to 10 working days in a way
17:42that
17:43you know the market is expected to be
17:47within 1466
17:522666 murgan this is any common man can
17:55say that
17:56remember if you know that really well
17:58then there are non-directional
18:00strategies gonna help you to make money
18:02but believe me it's not gonna be there
18:04for sure or forever
18:06the the probability of being inside is
18:09what i'm gonna share you in the couple
18:11of
18:12slides so i want you to be stick to it
18:15it's it's close to 68 chances are there
18:17for the market to remain in that
18:19particular one what i said okay and of
18:22course
18:23for you people like you know if you wish
18:24to pick up the nifty okay now let me
18:26take nifty okay
18:27if you get into nifty you guys can have
18:29a nifty and magnificent one
18:31you know filter you can get it and if i
18:33take uh
18:3422nd october you'll see the premium is
18:37119 and 103. i think adam
18:39adding up i get close to 120 am right so
18:42if you look at this
18:43range now which is mark it is 11 000 650
18:4611 000 765
18:49with 120 so if someone is asking me the
18:51range i see the range is something 11
18:53600 to 11 900 and the probability of
18:57market being inside
18:59is close to 68 okay it's close to 68
19:03and there is a second level of standard
19:04deviation which can i can talk about it
19:06let me slightly get into the you know
19:09the chapter
19:10okay uh i think this slide may be pretty
19:14confusing before i get into the slide
19:16you know i let me share the
19:18the raw data what we have in the excel
19:20okay
19:21i hope you guys can see this excel sheet
19:23okay
19:24and i hope the text is also visible if
19:27not
19:28you know because we we probably take
19:31efforts to record this in the hd version
19:33if not in the 4k
19:35but otherwise you need a you know a
19:37stable internet connection to see the
19:39text well
19:40okay now look at this uh the point
19:42number one
19:44i said it is a backtested from 2015. i
19:46hope you see this is aditya brillanova
19:49the contract expiring on 29th jan and if
19:51i put it on the
19:53the time stamp here you see it's the
19:55first jan
19:562015 and if i go down i think for the
19:58first time 2015
20:00we must be having a you know close to
20:02150 or 200 records because
20:04every future contracts know every future
20:06contracts
20:07been evaluated on this ground so we
20:09wanted to know
20:10what happens to these future contracts
20:13sometime back if you see
20:14i was telling you people that market
20:17tends to be within this range
20:18right i told you sometime back eleven
20:20thousand nine hundred to eleven thousand
20:22six hundred but you may be
20:24you know questioning me that look even
20:26last two three days the market witnessed
20:27unusual move
20:29does it is it really true that the
20:30market settles within this range
20:32that's why i said there is a probability
20:34there is a probability of settling
20:36within this range is only 68 percent
20:38so you should know okay but for that
20:41we need to back test it of course i'm
20:44right for back testing it
20:46just for your you know a confidence just
20:48to build your confidence
20:49i'm gonna show you something that
20:52no when you see that i think you guys
20:54can also you know uh go and see through
20:56nse website to verify these numbers as
20:59well
20:59like the future prices on 1st jan 2015
21:03was settled at 1699.8 okay
21:06and if you if you look at the the call
21:09option premium the call option premium
21:11of at the money okay which is thousand
21:13seven hundred columns in premium is 50
21:14rupees
21:15and put option premium is 53 in a way we
21:17see the collective premium is
21:19103 rupees 103 rupees is a collective
21:22premium
21:23so as per my statement some time back
21:26the market movement the market movement
21:28is expected to be
21:311700 i just rounded it up for the
21:34convenience okay one six nine nine
21:36rather it's rounded to the thousand
21:37seven hundred
21:38plus hundred points and minus hundred
21:40points which is thousand five hundred
21:42sorry thousand six hundred two thousand
21:44eight hundred okay thousand six hundred
21:46two thousand eight
21:46let's see where the market settled on
21:48the expiry date if you look at on the
21:50expiry day on the on the expiry day of
21:52this contract
21:53the market settled on thousand eight
21:55hundred and twenty three in fact it went
21:57slightly beyond
21:58the hundred points more okay how much it
22:00went beyond
22:01it actually you know it it settled at
22:03120 percent you know it went beyond the
22:06hundred percent of the move
22:07i said like you know hundred percent in
22:09this case is hundred rupees okay
22:11but in this case that's why the at the
22:13money premium is 104
22:14but the market exhibited a moment of
22:16123.
22:18i am not talking about the range and
22:20talking about the market settlement
22:21towards the close
22:22where exactly it finds the close i'm
22:24talking about i'm not talking about the
22:26highs and lows
22:27in this success ratio we are talking
22:28about the close okay
22:30because i gonna recommend you a limited
22:32risk strategies
22:33not the unlimited risk strategies to
22:35bother about highs and lows
22:37okay and by the way just for you to you
22:39know gain some confidence look at this
22:41this was on june 2015 when i scrolled
22:44down
22:44you guys can see it's uh number 2015
22:48and you guys can see it's on 2016 and it
22:50is 2017
22:52so if i scroll down you guys can see
22:532018 record
22:55like you know even if i just randomly
22:57take it okay it's
22:58i know it's um um let's take a company
23:01which are pretty familiar let's say
23:02access bank
23:03okay 28th march 2018 contract okay 28th
23:07march 2018 this is an expiry date
23:09and if you look at the date 26th march
23:12the future price must be the future
23:14price must be 553.35 just
23:17for you people to understand the
23:19integrity of the data and presenting you
23:22okay and what i really want to convey
23:24out of this particular
23:25excel is the sample size is close to 2.3
23:29lakh
23:30so 2.3 lack of contract incidence
23:34is a meaningful sample for any
23:36statistician to
23:38agree upon and we see a very common
23:41behavior out of this
23:42okay movement what exactly you saw of
23:44this okay now look at this now at the
23:46last slide what you see
23:47okay let me hide another component which
23:51i
23:51i really don't want because it's pretty
23:53much distracting for most of the
23:55time right so what i'm gonna do is
23:59i'm actually going to take uh you know
24:01i'm just gonna hide it
24:03okay
24:12okay till this
24:15ok and let me hide it okay so that it's
24:18pretty visible in this one slide okay
24:20now
24:20you'll see that the future price was
24:221699 but
24:24the market made a move
24:30okay
24:35okay now look at this uh thanks for the
24:38patience and sorry for the gap in
24:40between
24:40i hope you appreciate it meanwhile why
24:42not you'd have gone for liking the video
24:45and why not you can even subscribe it of
24:48course you must be an
24:49existing subscriber because you see that
24:51and if you are a early viewer of this
24:52video
24:53do share this video because when you
24:56watch this video earlier if you share
24:57this
24:58google even like it and youtube will
25:00start recommending us
25:01and that motivates a lot okay quickly
25:03get into this video
25:05okay look at this i said the future
25:07price is one six nine nine
25:08okay and if you look at the at the money
25:10premiums is one zero four okay
25:12the first one you have to remember and
25:14the second thing what you have to see is
25:16one zero four
25:16but look at where the market was settled
25:18it's one eight two three one eight two
25:20three which is
25:21123 rupees movement from this level 123
25:24rupees movement from this level
25:26but when you look at this the market was
25:28123 rupees movement
25:30whereas out of 104 so the the market
25:33made 119
25:34percentage of that like in this case
25:37three rupees
25:38whereas the market made seven rupees of
25:39more okay but in this case and then
25:42it witnessed on the downside okay it
25:43witnessed on the downside because
25:45if you look at the market future price
25:46was 135 but market settled at 122
25:50market settled at 122. so we know that
25:53sometime market
25:54no know settles within this range market
25:57settles within this range like sometime
25:58you see
25:59it is like you know lesser than 24 in
26:02this case it is lesser than 17
26:04in this case it is lesser than 16 in
26:06this case it is
26:07greater than 13 sometime it is greater
26:09sometime it is widely greater
26:11right but we want to know how many times
26:14out of this 2.4 lakh
26:16sample because we should not be excited
26:18by seeing one or few attempts
26:19that's why often i tell people don't
26:22judge
26:22your system don't judge someone's system
26:25just by looking at limited sample
26:27of course that's a very common statement
26:28so i i just want to
26:30tell you people on this one i think
26:32that's a pretty advanced piece here now
26:34let me take that out so if you look at
26:37the
26:39if you look at the overall sample i hope
26:41you guys can see this bell-shaped curve
26:45okay now this bell-shaped curve is not
26:48something is my invention it's just
26:50after all the discovery
26:52okay and thanks to the bell shaped curve
26:54because this is pretty common behavior
26:56since it is also happening here that add
26:59lot to my confidence
27:00so look at this what exactly means to me
27:04with this okay now i'll just do this
27:06calculation for you
27:07let me do this by taking this now i'm
27:10dividing this 2985
27:12and divided by this
27:16okay don't worry about this excel
27:17formulas and all other stuff pretty
27:19irrelevant
27:20if you are not you know familiar about
27:21this excel okay let me tell you what it
27:23is okay now i'm going to divide this
27:26let me
27:29okay now look at this the reason why i
27:32do everything right in front of you
27:34people is
27:35probably that add a bit to your
27:37confidence right
27:38so we we thought of doing it along with
27:40you people okay now look at this
27:41uh with this back tested like you know
27:44there are uh 18 000 times
27:48okay the futures the market expired
27:51slightly below the current market price
27:53that what this 18 000 indicates there
27:55are
27:56out of at 2.4 lakh attempts
27:59okay i think precisely saying 2.34 lakh
28:04it's 18 000 attempts were marginally
28:06settled lower there are 16 000 times
28:08it's
28:09settled a 50 percent of the premium 50
28:12of the premium okay well then what do
28:13you mean by this
28:14uh you know a 50 of the premium i said
28:16at the money call premium at the money
28:18put premium
28:19let's say if it is 100 rupees market
28:21settled below 50 rupees market settled
28:23below 50 rupees
28:24i hope you manage to understand it right
28:26if not
28:27have a patience don't give up just see
28:29this video maybe about again
28:3110 minutes prior to it see this video
28:33again if not take a break
28:35watch this video by tomorrow you can
28:36save this now to watch later
28:39or probably you can bookmark it or you
28:40can schedule yourself to watch this
28:42but do watch this and i know
28:46you have to watch this throughout and
28:48you will find it pretty interesting okay
28:49now get back to the subject here
28:52and you see that it is a pretty common
28:55common behavior for the market to settle
28:58around at the current level i think if
29:01you are familiar about the statement
29:02mostly market revolves
29:05around the range market exhibit the
29:07range bound behavior
29:09and this is the proof for that okay
29:11although the market witnessed the
29:13volatility it was not most of the time
29:15of course
29:16these are all the ends if the market
29:18goes we lose money of course
29:20okay we call that as a talent risk okay
29:23now let me go back to this
29:25i know if if you ask me uh in this
29:28in this video that's what actually shown
29:30here in this this is what i know
29:34uh shown in this particular video i
29:36think uh
29:37i should be having this particular thing
29:38uh you know
29:41okay now look at this let me calculate
29:44this
29:45110 okay i'm taking this 110 okay till
29:49this 110 okay 110
29:51when you when i take everything the sum
29:53shows here which is 68.3 percent and
29:56i look at my mouse okay i'm this is
29:58something which i can't zoom
30:00okay but i'm actually showing at the
30:01bottom of the screen i hope you guys can
30:03see there is something called 68.3
30:06by adding all this 4.3 5.7 if
30:09if it is interested you guys can take a
30:10calculator and add it you get to know
30:12something 68.3 so out of uh out of 2
30:162.3 lakh there are close to
30:19there are close to 1.6 lakh times the
30:23market revolves within the premium
30:26with this fact you should gain
30:28confidence at least you should believe
30:30it most of you
30:31are aware of this concept of at the
30:33money premium but with this you can
30:35believe
30:36it probably you can start working on it
30:38if not this time next time it can
30:40happen most of the time it is happening
30:42see as an option trader
30:44don't build a strategy which works once
30:46and nine times it goes wrong
30:48because it test your patience better
30:50build a strategy
30:51which works sixty six times or seven
30:54times out of ten
30:55you know if you have a success ratio
30:57close to six to seven now sixty to
30:59seventy you know
31:00that gives a lot more confidence when
31:01you build a strategy i think this is
31:03what that record says
31:04so if that is the case what strategy do
31:06i need to build
31:07i hope uh you know by this time you got
31:10it
31:11let me tell you what is wider range okay
31:13let me tell you what is wider range okay
31:15when i'm talking about the wider range
31:17i'm trying to cover something called
31:19150 okay 100 percent of at the money
31:23premium
31:23is the narrow range the wider range is
31:26something which i'm talking about
31:27150 if i take this study of 150 percent
31:31i have to take it from here which is you
31:33know from this
31:34150 percent on the negative or even on
31:36the upside so i'm not bothered about the
31:38direction
31:39i already told you be it upside the
31:40downside i have 150
31:42cushion okay now if i take it you see
31:45something close to eighty three point
31:47four percent
31:48okay now forget about the round number
31:50close to sixty five percent
31:52and eighty percent i think that's fair
31:55minimal expectation one has one
31:56sixty five percent you expect it to be
31:58right and 80 percent you expect it to be
32:01right if you have a wider range in the
32:03market
32:04but morgan how do i see this wider range
32:07why do i how do i get this wider range
32:09more can you give me one more example
32:11you know with that let me it doesn't
32:14matter even if i stretch the video
32:15let me give you this example okay now
32:17look at this how do i get the wider
32:18range
32:19now if you ask me what are the wider
32:21range here which is 11
32:23765 11 765 with this if you want the
32:27wider range
32:28as well as our back testing is concerned
32:30which is 150 percent
32:32so if that is the case like you know the
32:33250 it's close to 220
32:36220 into 150
32:40220 into 150 percent which is close to
32:44330 which is nothing but 330.
32:48so 330 on top of it which works out to
32:51be 12 000
32:52and 330 on the downside 330 on the
32:57downside
32:57which close to 11 430 or odd okay
33:02i think the market got 80 chances to get
33:05expired within that range i think i hope
33:09you got some meaningful idea if not
33:10just crawl back for about a couple of
33:12minutes and watch this again
33:14you will get it let me quickly get
33:16further concepts
33:17okay now with this what you got it at
33:20the money premium
33:21has lot to convey in terms of
33:24probability
33:25if you know how to build a strategy on
33:27the narrow range
33:28okay you go ahead and form it but if
33:31you're in the narrow range
33:32make it about 100 and believe that your
33:35success ratio will be close to 65
33:36percent
33:37accordingly you plan your risk to reward
33:40and if you are constructing something on
33:41the broader range you get a
33:43better success ratio okay you've got a
33:46better probability
33:47but make sure that you get a fairly a
33:50reasonable
33:51risk for the returns okay but for that
33:53you need to understand the risk adjusted
33:55returns for that
33:56but believe understand one thing sir
33:58although we have the
34:00success ratios are in our favor there is
34:02a tail risk
34:03sometime market can go you know three to
34:06four
34:06times away from that those scenarios can
34:10wipe you and me out of the picture so
34:13always
34:14mind your risk i think when you when you
34:17when you really want to play it it's
34:19good to have a
34:20partly hate strategies or fully hit
34:22strategies when you actually bet
34:23something on non-directionals
34:25okay but you have to even if you have a
34:28marginal returns okay
34:29that's far better if you have a piece of
34:31maker because you see there is a tail
34:33risk of course you see there is a tail
34:35risk
34:35most of the time below 300 that the
34:37significant contributions where are
34:39beyond three times of this a significant
34:41contributions were there
34:43okay now i hope uh you know this this
34:45range probabilities were pretty clear
34:47for most of you
34:48people let me actually go and i know
34:51in terms of just summarizing that
34:52particular thing so you you now by this
34:54time got most of the time the markets
34:56were settling within this trading range
34:59now you should form a strategy now you
35:01should form a strategy i hope
35:03i've already explained you in terms of
35:04how to pick up this narrow range and the
35:06broader range
35:07of course if you want to pick up two
35:08times of the premium it gets even wider
35:11in that case the success ratio tends to
35:12be more but if you build a strategy for
35:14a very wider range
35:16you get a peanuts okay so there is a
35:18trade-off do i need to be with one
35:20or one just to find that's an art i hope
35:24you
35:24get a lot of these content as we move
35:27forward as well
35:28okay okay with all this finding
35:31what are we gonna do okay let me tell
35:34you one thing
35:35you can build a strategy like i
35:36encounter or you can build a strategy
35:38like butterfly you can build a
35:40strategies like
35:41straddle and strangles but remember one
35:43thing if you build a strategies okay
35:45if if you build a strategy which is
35:46let's say if it is a straddle or
35:48strangle
35:49there is a tail risk okay when a market
35:51you know
35:52exhibits a larger home although it's
35:55maybe about a four percent or a
35:57four percent or about less than five
35:59percent but those four percent should
36:01not
36:01wipe you out right so you should mind
36:04your risk really well
36:05so if you are really pro at handling
36:08your trades
36:09then you can actually go with strangles
36:10and strangles if not
36:12better be with the butterfly which is a
36:14fully hedged right
36:15a fully hedged strategies so it's better
36:18be with the you know
36:19and by the way this is not the video
36:20where i'm going to explain you about
36:22each and every strategy for that
36:25you know with relevant to this
36:27particular uh
36:28way of trading we may come up with few
36:30but otherwise you can
36:32go and check out our you know previous
36:33videos we have posted in the
36:36channel okay and i encounter maybe you
36:38know it's it's
36:39a fully hedged strategies i think you
36:42should probably work
36:43an either of iron core an iron condor or
36:45a butterfly but if you're a pro who know
36:47how to handle straddles in strangle
36:49then of course you with this you will
36:52definitely gain probability
36:53believe me by this time you should have
36:56got some insights
36:57but to retain it okay you should
37:00practice it
37:00because just by seeing or watching a
37:02video doesn't mean
37:04you get everything of course this is
37:06where you got something but
37:08you have to practice it okay for that
37:11i request you uh i know every day you
37:14guys can even
37:16you know figure out the trading range of
37:18the market and you can actually document
37:20it
37:21okay and if you're a pro you guys can
37:22actually do a back testing of those
37:24things as well
37:25okay so but the point is do i need to be
37:28along it with iron contour or short with
37:30this
37:30longer short really depends on the risk
37:32to reward i get it because we know the
37:34probability okay we know the probability
37:37okay we know the probability but the one
37:39more thing is
37:40risk to reward am right risk to reward
37:44risk to reward is risk to reward
37:47that really depends on the current
37:49premium prevailing premiums okay the
37:51current premiums
37:52by any chance the prevailing premiums
37:55were not
37:55offering me the expected risk to reward
37:58better i
37:59don't go for a long rather i can go for
38:01a shot so
38:02i think mostly we go for uh you know the
38:05the
38:05iron corner or short butterflies i think
38:08various ways by which we can actually
38:09make money
38:10but you should be really good at
38:12understanding to be with
38:13long or a short by understanding the
38:15probability and risk to reward
38:17i think that's that all together it's a
38:19lengthy video
38:21which probably i can dedicate to another
38:23video
38:24where i can tell you with what
38:26probability or what risk to reward
38:28to decide a long or short of these
38:30strategies i think that itself gonna
38:32take uh you know
38:33uh probably a one-hour video and by any
38:35chance if you feel that good
38:37uh the video looks good but something
38:39i'm missing maybe because it's not uh
38:42you are interacting with me you are not
38:44having a conversation with me i think uh
38:46prior to this video a lot of you people
38:48having watched my video
38:50you guys somehow i know i think you guys
38:52can get my phone number even through
38:54uh you know a lot of you people are
38:56calling uh you know maybe through me or
38:58to our executives
39:00if it is a one-line question you know
39:02maybe you're a client or a not a client
39:04we will definitely answer a question if
39:06it is one line of question in a moment
39:07if i can answer your question
39:09so feel free about calling us if you
39:10have one line of question but if you
39:12have
39:13you know a pretty lengthy question if
39:15you have something more to
39:17interact of course uh we can't answer
39:19everyone's question
39:20uh no over the phone call conversation
39:22for that we have a dedicated training
39:24program so let me
39:25just take you through you know you know
39:27it's not going to be much then i'll take
39:28you through
39:29the the put call ratio but let's let's
39:32just give you something okay
39:34we have a online training program i hope
39:36you guys can see the couple of uh one
39:38which is option trading strategies for
39:40the beginner
39:40the other one is option chain analysis
39:42for the pro okay
39:44and we primarily recommend most of you
39:47people should fall in the category of
39:48the
39:48beginners because if you if you get the
39:50fundamentals really well
39:52only then the pro level program makes
39:54sense to you so don't get excited or
39:56curious to go to a pro level straight
39:58away
39:58and better you actually undergo the
40:00beginner level program and
40:02have a patience of practicing it really
40:04well before you get into a pro
40:06because with that with the wisdom what
40:08you get in the beginner
40:09you understand the pro really well okay
40:12but
40:12what is the advantage of taking this
40:14particular program of course
40:16we we charge a fairly low when compared
40:18to i know the market
40:20not because i know the program is short
40:24rather we see this our program
40:27you know makes much more sense of you
40:29know
40:31the pricing is something altogether
40:32different and we have a limited audience
40:34okay we have a very limited audience
40:37in a way you get a time to interact okay
40:39there you
40:40buy our time and we go for conversations
40:43and
40:44there we are not there to deliver what
40:46we have in our mind
40:47when you look at this video i am
40:48delivering something what i have in my
40:50mind
40:50but when you look at the you know when
40:52you really look at a training program
40:54when you when you really look at a
40:56training program
40:57i know we first look at what is your
40:59expectations accordingly we deliver it
41:01so of course we have ongoing sessions
41:03you guys can find a slots
41:04and if you are interested you can
41:05definitely go for it if you are if you
41:07are taking a pro level program there is
41:08an eligibility test you have to undergo
41:10and then you will be eligible what am i
41:12trying to convey here
41:14you know when you take up a training
41:16program our school of thought gonna be
41:18same so that helps us to have ongoing
41:20conversations going forward
41:21and that makes me to answer in one line
41:23going forward any of your questions
41:26and there we find lot more time to have
41:29the interaction
41:30there we find a time to understand you
41:32to provide a support for you
41:34that's the reason why we have a limited
41:35session just because online we don't
41:37have hundreds of people or 50s of people
41:38which is going to have a 20 max to max
41:4025 and we make sure that everybody gets
41:43a chance
41:43to understand the content okay let me go
41:45along with the content again
41:47i hope this non-directional strategies
41:49gets better
41:50but now i'm going to give you a some
41:53directional bias
41:55using a put call ratio most of you must
41:57be familiar about this all right
41:59most of you must be familiar about this
42:01put call ratio very very popular one
42:03okay
42:04and the the general understanding is if
42:06you see
42:07a no a lot of if you see a significant
42:10put over a
42:11call okay if you see a significant put
42:13option then the market seems to be
42:15oversold
42:16the market so in a way we see the slide
42:19towards on that side
42:20and if you see a significant call
42:22options and we see
42:23that's the general notion of put call
42:25study right
42:26if you have a significant call of call
42:28options okay where the writers were in
42:30place we see the price to go down
42:32and if the significant put options were
42:34already on the open interest we see the
42:36put option the price tends to go up but
42:40we wanted to know does it really happen
42:42right so when i go back to this
42:44you may be you know interested to know
42:48okay if you look at this particular you
42:51know
42:52record okay if i unhide this
42:55okay you if you are if you if you are
42:58curious to see what exactly this
42:59spreadsheet all about okay uh you might
43:02have seen our
43:03scanner right sometime back i was
43:05showing you a scanner in our website
43:07i think uh this is the scanner you see
43:08that you know if i take a
43:10stock which is significant call option
43:12okay if i take a stock which are trading
43:14with significant call options
43:16you'll see the list here okay but i
43:18wanted to know what happened to this
43:20stocks
43:21as on that expiry so any any scanners
43:23what we have we should
43:24you know try to optimize the performance
43:27right and then we as a research team we
43:29wanted to learn by seeing what market
43:31really ready to teach us so look at this
43:34we we have documented this
43:37we have documented this okay and this
43:40helps us to know
43:41what works under what market condition
43:43of course so if you look at the
43:45significant call options and put options
43:47now i am going to focus on this
43:49the rest of the conditions probably we
43:51see in other videos or sometime later
43:53as far as this video is concerned i just
43:55gonna take a put call ratio okay
43:56if i take a put call ratio you guys can
43:58see that it's not every time we get this
44:00filter okay there are uh you know there
44:03are few instances like you know
44:04on as far as the amtec auto on 2015
44:07exhibited okay
44:08the significant call option if you want
44:10some reason record let me go down and
44:13make you to feel better okay if i go
44:15down
44:16as if like you know maybe you know if i
44:20go down and if i see this record okay if
44:23i take this record
44:24and if you look at a significant put and
44:26call option okay significant call
44:28options
44:28which as of 8th of november okay
44:318th november of 2019 okay let's let's
44:35take 2020 record
44:36let's take 2020 september or
44:40maybe like you know a couple of page up
44:43not to waste much of your time okay
44:44let's say 18
44:45september 18th acceptable significant
44:48put options
44:48which company let's see which company it
44:50is apollo hospital
44:51okay on 18th to september if you want to
44:53verify go and check
44:55the price must be 1831 the future price
44:57must be 1831
44:59and at the money price is 18 1840
45:02and the call and put price of 1840 is 34
45:05and 44 respectively
45:07okay and when i look at the uh the put
45:09call ratio of taking
45:10all the open interest of call and put it
45:13it was suggesting as there is a
45:14significant put options
45:16okay it was a significant put options
45:17but we need to know whether does it
45:19really move up or down
45:20right but in this case the market
45:22managed to go up from that level because
45:24because the day when we have studied
45:26that was
45:271831 that day when we studied the market
45:30is 1831
45:31but on the expiry the market was 1941
45:34so the markets really went up in fact
45:36which is 110 points
45:38whereas the premium was only 79 points
45:40it in fact beyond that the range
45:42what it really happened when you formed
45:44the strategy you might have lost money
45:45but remember one thing
45:46that the most of the time that the
45:48record shows it is settling before
45:50so that's the reason why people you know
45:52with lack of
45:54system lack of data study they don't
45:57stick to a system
45:58that is the common reason why people
46:00miss out these strategies they lose
46:02confidence on it okay now coming back to
46:03the put call ratio here
46:05okay let me go back to this and i gonna
46:08delete this
46:09okay and i am going to just introduce
46:12one component here okay for you people
46:15just to understand it better i'm going
46:16to introduce i think if those were
46:18familiar about this pivot table will
46:20also agree upon this whatever i'm doing
46:22it
46:23i'm actually going to take this you know
46:26a put call ratio which is pcr analysis
46:28if i take this pcr analysis on top of it
46:30you guys can see something like this
46:32okay okay now
46:34remember if i take a call option
46:38look at this i want everyone to pay
46:39attention here there's a call option if
46:42i go to output option okay you guys can
46:45see a difference q
46:47look at this can you see there is a
46:48change in skew
46:50just see that that it's going to change
46:52this q look at this it is going to shift
46:54slightly
46:54if i say significant call the skew is
46:57going to be towards the
46:58left hand side towards the negative side
47:00look at this
47:02towards the skew is towards the left and
47:04if i take this particular one
47:07towards the right you i you you will not
47:10be seeing a drastical skew
47:12because market follows some efficiency
47:15so if it is a
47:16drastical skew of course the contrarian
47:18player will start coming into the
47:20picture and takes the
47:21opportunity and it actually makes the
47:23market to revolve around the equation so
47:25even if you find any technical concepts
47:28by nature it will not be right by 80
47:31times or 90 times
47:32try to understand those things will
47:34revolve around the mean
47:35but you see a marginal difference so
47:37your system may be
47:38right by 55 times 60 times in a way that
47:41system is doing
47:42fairly better if you believe that if you
47:44want the system to be right 80 times 90
47:46times
47:47i mean the directionally i think your
47:50expectations were not fair okay even on
47:52this grounds even
47:53on this grounds if you look at the put
47:54options and call options okay now
47:57let me put on both in front of you then
47:59with the difference in the color you
48:01guys can see
48:01i want everyone to be patient to watch
48:03this the orange
48:05color what you see is actually higher
48:08than the blue
48:09after the positive ranges look at the
48:12positive 10 to 20 everything is positive
48:14this is all minus 30 to minus 11 minus
48:1672 minus
48:17in this case the the blues are quite
48:20high okay now
48:21let's understand what is blue and words
48:23orange okay when the call options
48:25when if if the significant calls were
48:28there
48:29then it ended up mostly on the negative
48:32side the
48:32if if it is qualified as a significant
48:35call
48:36it was ended up in the negative side if
48:38it was ended up if it is a significant
48:40put
48:41then it is ended up on the positive side
48:43so i think it actually fairly gives us a
48:45clue
48:46so by any chance okay now look at this
48:49by any chance if you have a stocks i
48:50think this is as of today 16th october
48:53i'm recording this maybe
48:54around 9 or 10. by the way remember we
48:57have already posted the same video
48:59but there was a lot of issues i messed
49:01up something with the mic or
49:03something went wrong when we have the
49:05converted this video
49:06so i am redoing this video once again
49:09all this happens in one stretch
49:11and it is last time the video is about
49:1250 minutes again i am recording this
49:14video once again for the 50 minutes
49:15because a lot of
49:16our subscribers given me a you know a
49:19comment stating that it was a
49:21noise you know the voice was not good so
49:24when i am taking an efforts not i know
49:27to come up with this
49:29you can also contribute back to equis
49:32i humbly request you people why not you
49:34guys can share this video
49:36when you watch this video find some
49:38sense out of it do share this video
49:40and you express yourself by liking it if
49:43you watch this video
49:44till this minute you might have find
49:46found some sense to it
49:47so why not you instantly you know not
49:50just liking it
49:51do share this when you share it in the
49:52whatsapp or facebook
49:54we we generally tell the people but it i
49:56know
49:57rarely happens when it happens it makes
50:00wonder to us
50:00no help us okay now let me tell you in
50:02this case a significant call options
50:05look at these stocks got a better
50:07chances of
50:08slightly closing lower range i mean
50:11lower
50:12doesn't mean it is going to be negative
50:15although it is look at this
50:16although it is a significant look at
50:18this one although
50:20it is a significant caller significant
50:22put
50:23mostly look at the break even mostly
50:25market revolves around minus 10 to plus
50:279 i mean
50:28minus 10 to plus 9 the market revolves
50:30around this range that's a factor
50:32it means what although it is bullish or
50:36a bearish
50:37most of the time market doesn't make
50:39much more that's the
50:40key takeaway so even if it is a
50:43positively skewed no
50:44positively biased or negatively biased
50:47don't underestimate the current level
50:49that is the reason why in any of our
50:51trading strategies we give
50:52a more important to the theta so at the
50:55current level if the theta is in our
50:56favor
50:57most likely you end up making money
50:59right that's that's why a lot of people
51:00say option writers makes money it's not
51:02option writers are
51:03you know pro to make money option
51:06writers got some statistical advantage
51:08uh the reason why they make money but
51:10they do lose money
51:11when they see the talent happens tail
51:13risk happens
51:14so you should know how to manage your
51:16positions as well okay coming back to
51:17this look at this
51:19in this case it is negatively skewed
51:21because it is lot of call option
51:23and in this case it is positively skewed
51:25because it is the
51:26put option okay but don't form a bullish
51:30or a very strategy
51:31do a non-directional strategy with some
51:34directional bias
51:35how do i do that morgan with pcr
51:37directional bias if you understand this
51:39the last 10-15 minutes what you guys can
51:42do is
51:43instead of forming a butterfly i think
51:45the butterfly is this i hope
51:46this is the butterfly i'm right this is
51:48the butterfly where we have a
51:50kind of risk and some good returns if a
51:52market settles within that particular
51:54trading range
51:55but why not if you see a significant uh
51:57put option if you see a significant put
51:59option
52:00then the market tends to go slightly on
52:02the upside then probably you keep this
52:04as a
52:05marginal profit or a no profit no loss
52:06instead of taking a risk because you
52:08know
52:08it is a quite a good chance for the
52:09market to settle in this range
52:11or probably you can adjust the shift in
52:14a way to make money
52:16this is a modified butterfly okay as i
52:18told you i'm not going to explain about
52:19those strategies but if you are not even
52:21familiar about these strategies
52:23you should definitely consider our the
52:26beginners level training program
52:28and of course we make this program also
52:30fairly interactive and
52:32affordable for you people and of course
52:34we have some
52:35coupons for you people to attempt it
52:37okay now
52:38let's go back to the quiz okay the
52:41moment i say
52:42something to practice people see it as a
52:44conclusion they don't proceed further
52:46okay let me tell you one thing unless
52:48otherwise you practice what are you
52:49gonna retail it
52:50okay now here's the first challenge okay
52:53i want you people to go to
52:54nifty now okay go to nifty
52:57okay go to nifty option chain okay go to
53:00nifty option
53:01same and find the okay by the way
53:05i believe you guys can see this video
53:06anytime you guys can
53:08see the video by 2021 2022 anytime i see
53:12this is
53:12evergreen concept so anytime you go and
53:15see the option chain
53:17okay that particular day tell me what is
53:19the at the money strike
53:21okay and give me plus atm and minus atm
53:24and try to answer this question
53:25and tell me what are the narrow range
53:27for that
53:29for i know one round of premium one
53:31round of premium one at the money
53:33premium
53:33or minus one at the mini premium okay
53:36and if you are a pro
53:37i know i recommend you to reply me in
53:40the comment section or you can also
53:41suggest other people response
53:43and i try to respond but i can't and i
53:45alone cannot
53:46answer everybody's comment so if you
53:48take an efforts no we can actually work
53:50on it
53:50okay here's the second question here's
53:52the second question i think this
53:54question got the answer in the video so
53:56this is a question test i know i know
53:59your
53:59understanding of throughout the video so
54:01the answer is already hidden
54:02inside this video if you're unable to
54:04answer this question you
54:06have to you have to rewatch this video
54:08again
54:09okay the probability of settling the
54:11broader market broader range i mean 150
54:13percent
54:14okay and which is 65 percent or 81
54:17percent i think it's it's 81.65 just
54:20rounded up number okay it's 65 to 68
54:22even if it is okay 81 to 85 percent
54:25it's something in between but i want you
54:27people to answer this
54:28okay as a as a matter of uh appreciation
54:32okay instead of just leaving without
54:34answering it why not you go below in the
54:36comment section and answer the question
54:37okay
54:38and here is the advanced question if you
54:40are a pro
54:41okay if you know how to form option
54:43trading strategies i already told you to
54:44create longer short i think this
54:46question
54:46was really important for you to answer
54:48it when you have a 65
54:50success ratio when when you are when you
54:52are when you have a probability of being
54:54right is 65 percent
54:56what should be the minimal risk to
54:58reward for you to break even
55:00what should be the minimal risk to
55:02reward for you to break even okay for
55:04that
55:04if you know how to answer it it's fairly
55:06good uh i know uh otherwise you guys can
55:09expect my answers after a while maybe
55:11about one or two weeks before that i
55:12hope
55:13some will answer that a lot of you
55:14people can even comment that are
55:16probably
55:17like that so that it gets on top of it
55:20hope you find this
55:22video fairly you know good and if you if
55:24you really wanted to you know
55:26practice some strategies okay uh we i
55:28can still recommend you to
55:30you know um i can i can definitely
55:34recommend you you guys can go to
55:35something called uh you know
55:37we have something called primer and you
55:39guys can log in i think this is a portal
55:42specifically for uh building option
55:44strategies like
55:45you know
55:49okay now i hope you guys can see this
55:51portal i think it's a
55:52very interesting portal if you get into
55:54it like so if i say access bank okay
55:57i think access bank has i think as if
56:05okay now access bank price is 473 am
56:09right access bank price is 473 as of
56:11today and you see that the chart here
56:13and of course for you to understand the
56:14trading range if you scroll down you see
56:17where the maximum open interest this is
56:18all general option chain analysis
56:20and if you look at this 32 rupees ranges
56:22there 32 rupees range from here
56:23means a close to 510 on top of it so i
56:27have a 510 on top of it resistance and
56:29the price action also says 5 10. look at
56:31this
56:32the 473 the price action also four seven
56:34four five ten there is a resistance
56:36on downside the support uh it's not a
56:39support
56:40the trading range the most likely range
56:42for the market is below 32 points
56:44so which is around 440 so 440 i think
56:47uh if you look at this the market is
56:49expected to be a five at this range or
56:51at this range
56:52accordingly you guys can know express
56:54your opinion and you can submit your
56:55strategies
56:56and the strategies whatever you have
56:58submitted okay and you guys can even
57:00build strategies you can look at other
57:01people's strategies as well
57:03you can even form strategies for other
57:04people as well
57:06okay like uh you know if i think i've
57:08got someone posted on itc i can actually
57:10go and build strategies
57:11and i know that itc is something which
57:13was trading around 166
57:15and you know the premium may be
57:17something close to
57:18uh if i if i if i want to be right with
57:21in front of you people
57:22so never be lazy of doing something so
57:24let's do it along with you people
57:26now the premium is three to four close
57:28to seven or eight rupees premium
57:29right so eight rupees of premium so the
57:32trading range is something which is
57:33eight rupees on up and down 172.
57:35so if i sell it is 1772 what i guess
57:38what i can do is
57:39no uh i can sell this 172 uh call option
57:43i can sell this
57:44you know 8 plus 1 72
57:48which is 6 rupees here 16. so this good
57:50option of course there is a wider range
57:52that the quite a good chance we get
57:54money of making this particular one and
57:56we probably lose money for market goes
57:58beyond this range
57:58right okay remember uh the chances for
58:01us to lose money
58:03is there for market goes beyond this
58:05particular range but you need to know
58:06what are the probability of things going
58:08beyond so you need to find the
58:09break-even you get the break-even
58:11negative break-even positive break-even
58:12all these things what maximum profit you
58:14guys can do everything
58:15of course this helps a lot for you to
58:17interact with us or interact with our
58:19other audience
58:20so hope you uh you know uh find sense uh
58:23you know in this particular video um
58:27but to really you know add up your
58:29confidence remember one thing
58:32uh instead of believing in your instinct
58:34you better go with
58:36numbers okay because uh this is a sample
58:39size of
58:40close to two lakh things so better go
58:41with that but
58:43before you execute your trades do your
58:44research as well okay and
58:46if you're convinced only then you trade
58:48if not it's the the trading risk
58:50appetite
58:51solely belongs to the the viewers okay
58:54and not just as a disclaimer and it
58:55should be fair and most importantly okay
58:58now i just want to share something
59:00uh the incident which happened last time
59:02you know in our
59:04i think there was a gentleman who called
59:07me and he asked me to watch his whatsapp
59:09status you know
59:11and uh you know i was surprised to see
59:13his watchtop status it was a link
59:16okay i think it was a link and that was
59:18a link from our
59:19uh the previous video i i remember i
59:22think that must be this
59:23video which is the video what you people
59:25are seeing it
59:26i think this this was the video of this
59:28one okay and
59:30because here you see something which is
59:32the
59:33the very different option chain analysis
59:35which is
59:37if you if you look at this particular
59:38one which is a multi-dimensional
59:40option chain analysis along with the
59:42price and he was looking at this
59:44particular tool for a very long time and
59:46there was
59:47close to you know and i think he must be
59:50someone who is even conducting the
59:51training program for he has a lot of
59:53followers too
59:54and what he said is he kept this link in
59:56his
59:57you know this video link in the whatsapp
01:00:00status
01:00:00and that made us to see that a good
01:00:03number of people
01:00:03started finding it easy remember such
01:00:07activities motivate us a lot
01:00:09you know because when you find something
01:00:11good
01:00:12you should express yourself that
01:00:14motivates and that makes us to work
01:00:16remember it was no i i'm not i'll tell
01:00:19you something which which about
01:00:20a few minutes before i think you see
01:00:22that the three hours before we posted
01:00:23this video already
01:00:25i hope you guys can see this there is a
01:00:26video been already posted this video is
01:00:28what i'm recording has been already
01:00:30posted
01:00:30okay and i'm gonna redo this and a lot
01:00:33of people gave me a feedback could not
01:00:34enjoy this video i hope you guys can see
01:00:36like you know
01:00:37uh because the video the audios were not
01:00:39clear right so i
01:00:40i really appreciate have done analysis
01:00:42wonderful topics
01:00:44first past six years okay now i think uh
01:00:46some of you have got some
01:00:48feedback probably excellent but so poor
01:00:50uh video
01:00:52poor audio where audio am i right so the
01:00:54idea is no please record this video once
01:00:56again with a better mic
01:00:58okay now i have taken the efforts to
01:01:00record it again
01:01:01in a matter of three hours i hope you
01:01:03guys can see this is just the google
01:01:04timing
01:01:05right in a matter of three hours i have
01:01:07taken a video and
01:01:08uh to post it uh so in this
01:01:11comment in this and i gonna put it in
01:01:14the link also the upcoming video and
01:01:15we're gonna delete this particular one
01:01:18but remember one thing you should also
01:01:20support us by sharing the video
01:01:21if we see just about hundreds of views
01:01:23or thousands of views
01:01:25does it really motivates to come up with
01:01:27another video
01:01:28so i want you people to fairly support
01:01:30us in terms of
01:01:32i know you may be better than us in
01:01:34terms of helping us to find a better
01:01:36views
01:01:37so i leave it to you people just to
01:01:38motivate us thanks for
01:01:40being till this minute all the way hope
01:01:43uh i know you find a better traits going
01:01:45forward thank you
01:01:47thanks for joining us
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