00:00welcome at several Institute school of
00:03legal and social studies my name is
00:05Joseph Shima and president of this
00:06College we have a very special event
00:11this afternoon however before we start
00:14with my introduction of our dear guests
00:17let me say a few words about where we
00:22are for those who do not know each other
00:26this is a main facility of several
00:31Institute which is a private College
00:33established some five years ago as a
00:37offspring of several liberal
00:40conservative Academy a free-market
00:43liberal in Europeans and slash
00:47conservative think-tank and the school
00:50is a place where we offer BA and MA
00:56programs in political science
00:59international relations private and
01:03public law public administration with
01:07courses and hopefully in the future also
01:10programs in economic policy sociology
01:14history this school is special in
01:18numerous respects as you can see it is a
01:23beautiful historical facility that's for
01:27one but also we want to be a unique
01:32school to provide an education which is
01:35not offered anywhere else and that is we
01:40want to offer a free market perspective
01:42on the respective Sciences I have
01:46mentioned for that purpose we do not
01:50only educate our students we also offer
01:53additional activities both academic and
01:57non-academic the school is opening up
02:00starting this fall we will have for the
02:04first time international students so
02:07that the school ones getting established
02:11we'll actually be a place where not only
02:13foreign professors will come and teach
02:16but also foreign students will come over
02:18and study here to promote our
02:23international status some time ago we
02:26established a lecture series public
02:29lecture series called several Institute
02:32forum where we host speakers those from
02:38academic circles and business circles
02:42today however we have a guest who is a
02:46unique one who is not a businessman in a
02:51strict sense who is not an academic in a
02:53strict sense either we have a guest here
02:56who devoted his life to understanding
02:59politics and the skills to orchestrate
03:03success in politics our guest
03:09Arthur Finkelstein is a new york-based
03:13Republican Party consultant who has
03:15worked for conservative candidates in
03:17the United States Canada Israel in
03:20Eastern Europe over the bar over the
03:23past four decades his specialties are
03:27pulling strategy message media ad
03:32placement and advising on general
03:35campaign management while a student at
03:39Columbia University he interviewed and
03:43helped produce radio programs for
03:44Ireland and was a volunteer at the New
03:48York headquarters of the draft Goldwater
03:51committee in 1963-64 in 1972 Arthur
03:59philistine served as one of several
04:02pollsters for President Richard Nixon's
04:05re-election campaign developing
04:07sophisticated demographic analysis the
04:131972 election also saw the first of his
04:17three victorious campaign to elect Jesse
04:23North Carolina Arthur Finkelstein was
04:27viewed by many as instrumental in
04:30Governor Reagan's 1976 primary successes
04:34in North Carolina and Texas he pioneered
04:39the concept of execution of independent
04:42expenditure campaigns which would
04:46operate as a third force in an election
04:50beyond the control of candidate or party
04:53officials author Finkelstein was the
04:59chief strategist behind the most
05:01successful expenditure campaign
05:03operation culminating culminating in
05:07Ronald Reagan's 1986 a long list of
05:13successful campaigns of US politicians
05:16could follow to demonstrate
05:19effectiveness of his skills and
05:23strategies however his success is not
05:28limited to US politics in 1996 he helped
05:33Benjamin Netanyahu and Shimon Peres as
05:36leaders of Israel and his foreign
05:40activities multiplied as a consequence
05:46he has spent a lot of time working
05:49overseas with clients in Albania Austria
05:53Bulgaria the Czech Republic indeed
05:56Hungary Kosovo and the Ukraine he has
06:01also continued to consult on Israeli
06:04elections back in the u.s. author
06:09Finkelstein for example announced the
06:12organization of stop error now dedicated
06:17to defeating Hillary Clinton in the 2006
06:21New York US Senate race
06:23unfortunately this project cannot be
06:27counted as one of his successes
06:31some of his critics call him The
06:34Ultimates work of dr. Strangelove his
06:39defenders speak of his creative talents
06:42brilliance in terms of analyzing pores
06:45in numbers his dedication his Drive and
06:49his workaholism not being myself
06:54political strategist
06:56I cannot appreciate sufficiently our
06:59guests achievements in this field
07:01however there is one aspect of Arthur
07:05Finklestein activities I have great
07:07sympathies for his association with
07:11great ideas and their originators and
07:15promoters linked to individual liberty I
07:20rent Barry Goldwater Ronald Reagan and
07:24I'm sure many more I am not aware of Oh
07:30author Finkelstein had identified
07:34himself in public as a libertarian and
07:39an opponent of big government which
07:45today more than ever is becoming a very
07:49great virtue and indeed a hot topic in
07:54political debates please join me in
07:58welcoming our dear guest author
08:00Finkelstein the floor is yours
08:12thank you I I always love to start off
08:18these talks with a survey story that
08:22goes back many many years there was a
08:27questionnaire which we asked to this day
08:31the kinds of questions we asked it says
08:34from the following list of people do you
08:37have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
08:39of each if you have no opinion or never
08:44heard of the person just say so
08:47way back when the first name was Richard
08:51Nixon and this person said they never
08:53heard of him the next name was the
08:56governor of New York Nelson Rockefeller
08:58and they said they never heard of him
09:01we asked the three questions about three
09:04people who were running for the United
09:06States Senate and this person said they
09:09never heard of any of them
09:11the next question on the survey was
09:14what's the most important issue facing
09:17the United States today and he said
09:22apathy he was right he was right then
09:29and he's right today the most
09:31overwhelming fact the politics is what
09:36people do not know rather than what they
09:39do know and in fact in politics it's
09:43what you perceived to be true that's
09:46true not truth this is a very difficult
09:51concept for people who are rational but
09:54for those of us who are engaged in
09:56politics it has become the norm for
10:01example if I were to say to you
10:03I just left Boston which I did yesterday
10:07it was snowing and thanks to be
10:11someplace where the weather is nice you
10:15would tend to believe me
10:16because the weather here is nice if I
10:21sent to you that it was a mistake to
10:24leave Boston where it was nice to come
10:26here to Prague where it's snowing you
10:30would not believe it was nice in Boston
10:32or that it's snowing here in Prague the
10:36point being if I tell you one thing is
10:38true you will believe the second thing
10:41is true even though you haven't a clue
10:43whether or not I'm telling the truth or
10:45not that is the way politicians behave
10:48and a good politician will tell you a
10:53few things that are true before he tells
10:56you a few things that are not true
10:58because you will then believe all the
11:01things he has said true and untrue if he
11:05starts off by telling you things you
11:08know are untrue followed by a lot of
11:11things that are true you would have a
11:16disbelief in everything he said even if
11:19he was now telling the truth
11:21it's fascinating it's a wonderful
11:24business I'm gonna do a a kind of
11:29different level of lecture I'm gonna
11:32talk a little bit about politics as a as
11:36a game as a process as a campaign method
11:42I'm gonna talk a little bit about the
11:46way things have changed over the years
11:48and are changing and I'm going to talk a
11:50little bit about the way the world is
11:52today and how I think it is revolving
11:55because of the political situation that
11:59we find ourselves in and primarily
12:01because of the economic situation we
12:04find ourselves in I'm going to go draw
12:06pictures can you guys hear me from here
12:15there are four resources in politics and
12:20only four there is money there is the
12:31first question is how much resources
12:35does a campaign have to distribute the
12:39information it wishes to distribute I
12:42should make this premise that there are
12:46three points to any message there's the
12:49message your forward against education
12:52you four against crime you're for or
12:55against pensions whatever your foreign
12:58against message there is the messenger
13:02who says it the person who says it
13:06either gives credibility to the message
13:09or takes away Bill Clinton in a very
13:14famous speech to the American Congress
13:16called for school uniforms for public
13:20school children the Congress stood and
13:23applauded there is a right-wing
13:26politician in the u.s. called Pat
13:29Buchanan if pep if Pat Buchanan said we
13:33need school uniforms for public school
13:36kids America would have gasped they
13:39would have thought brown shirts the
13:42question is not just the message but the
13:45messenger and it has totally different
13:48meaning depending on who says what to
13:51but the third that is completely
13:55overlooked is the distribution system to
13:58whom do you say it if you're going to
14:01talk about a young people's issue then
14:04you should be on MTV if you're going to
14:07talk about the pensions then you
14:09shouldn't be on MTV and and knowing
14:13who gets to hear what is also part of
14:17the process game of politics the money
14:21you have allows you a distribution
14:24system sometimes it helps to develop the
14:28message but mostly it is for
14:31distribution people people in politics
14:36are important but I don't mean like
14:38people in the room I mean like
14:40organizations if you are the Muslim
14:46Brotherhood in Egypt you're going to
14:50have a lot of support because you're the
14:53fundamentalist group in the the green
14:59party environmentalist you get
15:03structural identification where people
15:06identify with a group and that group
15:10could be like in the United States
15:12Hillary Clinton did better among women
15:14than she did among non women Barack
15:19Obama of course did better with African
15:21Americans and with non african-americans
15:24John McCain did better with veterans
15:27than he did with non veterans so so the
15:30group you belong to ODS may do well for
15:36example with the business community in
15:42in in Austria so that you get you get
15:48identification based on who you are to
15:53some extent but also how you're
15:56perceived and who the candidate is the
15:59third of the four resources is the
16:02candidate who is it who is she tall
16:06short the taller candidate wins American
16:11politician 75% of the time looks matter
16:17and the candidate it's not just are they
16:23tall or short not only are they good
16:25looking or not good looking but one of
16:27they represent in a time of war
16:33we like generals I you know in Israel
16:36almost everybody who's been successful
16:39because they've always in the state of
16:41war needs to have a military background
16:44so I did reo sir owns campaigns for
16:48example and the fact that he was a great
16:53war hero to the Israelis was a big plus
16:57Charles DeGaulle Dwight Eisenhower these
17:00are people who are seen as having a
17:04qualification that's important right now
17:06the economy is a mess all over the world
17:10so we're looking at businesspeople to
17:14become leaders in the in the public
17:17arena but who the candidate is what
17:20their positives and negatives are
17:23obviously very important the fourth
17:26resource that I haven't mentioned is
17:29time and time is the most important
17:32resource and it's the one always
17:35forgotten time allows you to raise money
17:40to build identification with groups and
17:44of course to create a candidacy and an
17:47image a million dollars on the last day
17:51of a campaign is worth a million times
17:54zero equals zero a million dollars six
17:58months ahead of time allows you to do a
18:00lot of things so time people always say
18:05in politic we have plenty of time to get
18:07started no you may have plenty of time
18:12to send spend the money to distribute it
18:15but you don't have a lot of time to
18:18create these resources these resources
18:22need to be created by the way these are
18:25the only four resources in politics the
18:28only form I've never seen a fifth now
18:32there are also three kinds of candidates
18:39there are personality candidates issue
18:45candidates and structure candidates let
18:52me start with structure when I say
18:55structure what I mean is identification
19:01in every community in every election
19:04there is a group who will always vote
19:07for that group regardless of what the
19:10issues are what the candidates are most
19:13of the election by the way in the United
19:16States it's as much as 80% of the
19:20election is over before the fur coat or
19:23even the candidates are chosen because
19:26Democrats vote Democrat Republicans vote
19:29Republicans a very little switching
19:31around in Albania the number is in the
19:3590 percentile less than 10% of the
19:39people in Albania ever switched their
19:42vote it's tribal voting the people who
19:46like a green party or let's say like in
19:50Israel you have a party called shots
19:52shots is a religious party they wear
19:56funny clothes they say funny things
19:59nobody knows what they're saying and it
20:02they have 10% of the vote they get the
20:06same 10% whether the guys formed this or
20:12against that doesn't make any difference
20:13they get the structural vote period and
20:17you have probably constituencies here
20:20that are the same the old communists
20:24whatever that electorate group gets is
20:27what that group gets it doesn't move
20:30a lot structural voting depending on the
20:34society in which you're in usually takes
20:37up anywhere from sixty to ninety percent
20:41of the vote so almost all of the votes
20:45are already decided before you get
20:47started which is why you shouldn't spend
20:50a lot of time trying to get votes there
20:54is a difference however there are
20:56campaigns where you try to get people
20:59not to vote for the candidates
21:04I call that rejectionist voting New York
21:07State the first US Senate race I did in
21:11New York State the successful goes 1970
21:15this is coming in and out there is 1970
21:19at that time the Republicans and the
21:22Democrats in New York State were almost
21:27in 1980 in 1980 I did a race for a man
21:33named Al D'Amato the first of three
21:35successful US Senate races when he ran
21:38in 1980 there were 500,000 more
21:43Democrats than Republicans when George
21:46Pataki in 1994 was elected governor
21:51there were 1.2 million more Democrats
21:57than Republicans in the year 2004 when
22:03when Pataki won his last race for
22:07there were 2 point 1 million more
22:11Democrats than Republicans I sat down
22:14with some people the other day who
22:16somebody wants to run for the Senate in
22:18New York and the numbers now are 2.7
22:22million more Democrats and Republicans
22:26you cannot win in New York as a
22:29Republican but you can if you can create
22:33a negative vote against the Democratic
22:38candidate among Democrats be successful
22:42the Republicans are relevant in the case
22:45of Al D'Amato he ran for the US Senate
22:48four times I never once put him on
22:52television to talk not once he didn't do
22:55one commercial where he spoke he was
22:58completely irrelevant to the campaign
23:00the campaigns were vicious and mean we
23:03attacked the opponent over and over
23:06again I never showed them al D'Amato you
23:09saw how to follow you know why but we
23:12never talked about it
23:14it just was was just totally negative if
23:20he would have run today
23:21I wouldn't even show his face it would
23:24just be negative negative negative
23:26because you can't possibly win otherwise
23:28issue campaigns we all think issues
23:36when kind of don't they are important
23:41only because they tell you who the
23:44character in the play is in other words
23:46if I'm a businessman I will talk about
23:49the economy endlessly and I will talk
23:53about how important of the economy is
23:56and how I'm gonna cut the deficit and
24:00create jobs and spur the economy reduce
24:03taxes and balance the budget all of
24:08which you can say for anybody but but
24:10they but if you're a businessman he
24:13starts off by saying as a businessman I
24:16know that in order to create jobs we
24:19must do ABC if he's a soccer player and
24:25he says as a soccer player I know in
24:29order to create jobs we have to do ABC
24:32it has no meaning so so having the dress
24:37to be able to talk to the issues not the
24:40issues or what manners jump to
24:45personality you have certainly had
24:47personalities here in the Czech Republic
24:49I got to meet a couple along the way and
24:56personality voting is very very
24:58important because it's the one vote that
25:02overwhelms structure or issues if I like
25:07you I may vote for you even if I totally
25:11disagree with you and you're not part of
25:13my party or not part of my structure top
25:17o 9 in the last election that fellow who
25:21looks like a piece out of a Monopoly
25:24board looks like he's a personality and
25:28he's a figure that people identified
25:32with for better or for us I don't know
25:35if anybody here is watching Donald Trump
25:37in the United States but it's
25:39mind-boggling it's just pure personality
25:45was personality not substance not
25:49structure personality Ronald Reagan had
25:53a lot of that yes Reagan had issues of
25:56freedom but Reagan was a personality who
26:00people liked and because they liked him
26:02it was easier to capture some of this
26:07likability is important only if you want
26:11somebody who's likable as opposed to a
26:14means sob who can fix the problem at
26:19hand let me get to the next point right
26:23now the world is in this terrible
26:27economic crisis it appears at least from
26:31my travels around to be much worse than
26:34it feels to most of us there is real
26:39anger at a certain base level people are
26:44not I say there are three kinds of
26:46people in the world right now there are
26:48the unemployed the underemployed and
26:52those who are afraid of being unemployed
26:55or underemployed and what's happening is
27:00this is particularly true of young
27:03people out of poor socioeconomic classes
27:07and so we are seeing young men primarily
27:12take to the streets in country after
27:15country and in political movement after
27:18political movement both in the West but
27:23also in North Africa now and the Arab
27:26states etc the kids who are on the
27:31I submit weren't there because of the
27:37economic because of the desire for
27:40freedom but rather because of the
27:44economic crisis they do not have a job
27:48or the money to sustain themselves or
27:53to have hope for a better future until
27:57and unless the economic crisis is solved
28:00we're going to see these movements there
28:03is a belief in the West I said this up
28:05says is a belief in the West that the
28:08end result of these movements will be to
28:13have more freedom in the world I do not
28:16necessarily believe that to be true I
28:18think all we're going to see is stronger
28:22not weaker governments and we are going
28:25to see a call for stronger not weaker
28:27personalities we are going to look for
28:30men and sometimes women who are capable
28:35of bringing their strength to government
28:39what does that mean it means that yogic
28:44in Hungary last year which is a race we
28:46did for Nazi OPEC I did Viktor Orban but
28:52in in Hungary we saw Jovic received 17
28:58percent of the vote get within 2 percent
29:01of the of the socialist government's
29:03vote and become a real power on the
29:06streets even though their message was
29:10it's the Roma's fault it's the gypsies
29:13fault get the gypsies here in the Czech
29:17Republic you have also movements that
29:19are developing one political party was
29:22outlawed by your Supreme Court because
29:25it was too extreme in France today the
29:30leading party in the polling data in
29:36an anti Muslim party in Denmark the same
29:41phenomenon in Sweden and Finland we have
29:44seen anti Muslim parties become
29:49important in developing coalitions for
29:53their governments which are nominally
29:55socialists and now include these
29:59ethnically charged but angry parties and
30:03they're all saying the same thing
30:06they're taking our jobs they're taking
30:09away our way of life in the United
30:12States by the way it's the Tea Party and
30:15the anger is at the Mexicans not even
30:19all Hispanics the Mexicans why we pick
30:23one group over another to hate and why
30:25we we singled them out for the failures
30:28the point is the economic crisis is
30:31severe it's creating an energy source
30:35around which these movements take place
30:37a a not-so-secret secret here in the
30:43Czech Republic during the last election
30:49you had riots in Greece over a failed
30:53economy we used the riots in Greece to
30:59transform our campaign from a more
31:02broad-based campaign to one that simply
31:06stated if you follow the Socialists you
31:09will follow on the road to Greece in
31:13other words the point still was the word
31:16in English is xenophobic I don't know
31:18what it is in the Czech but it's super
31:22nationalism people now being asked to
31:26give money to Greece again or to
31:28Portugal or to Ireland or furious take
31:33care of our own first and asked and it's
31:38very much what we expect governments and
31:43people to act like how does this affect
31:46the world totally totally because what
31:50it does is it sets up the reason people
31:54vote for whom they vote it sets up the
31:59the environment in which the campaign
32:03occurs I always say that politics is a
32:08three-dimensional chess game you make a
32:11move somebody else makes a move and then
32:15the hand of God comes in
32:18and he makes a move a collapse of the
32:21economy in Portugal is a hand of God the
32:27Greece going into riots was a hand of
32:30God act the bombing of Libya the capture
32:35of Osama any of the things that can
32:38happen or earthquakes it is amazing how
32:42quickly the political world can change
32:45people who are certain about one of the
32:49reasons politics is so much fun for
32:50somebody like me is because it's forever
32:53changing it is kind of looking at a
32:56shoreline and you see the waves on the
32:58beach they look alike but over time
33:01they're always different and there are
33:03some times when storms come through and
33:05sometimes idle ways come through and and
33:09it's always an ever-changing fact let me
33:15go back to what I started with the most
33:17important fact is the fact that no one
33:20knows anything about anything and so
33:23your job in the political world is to
33:28tell people to know what they don't need
33:32to know want to know or care about
33:35knowing and you've got to make it
33:37interesting so we use humor I did any
33:41commercial years ago in Albania which I
33:44loved it was a picture of a sumo
33:50wrestler a picture of a kangaroo and a
33:55picture of my opponent and it says what
34:00do these three have in common and the
34:03announcer said none of them know
34:06anything about Albania
34:10the opponent got really angry and held a
34:15press-conference say they compared me to
34:16an animal to a kangaroo so then
34:20everybody wanted to see the commercial
34:22so made it even worse for him but there
34:26are stuff like that all the time means
34:29nothing means everything and and
34:33understanding that it's not an
34:35intellectual discourse the end result is
34:38very important who we elect the office
34:42is very very important but how they get
34:45elected that can get elected for the
34:48silliest of reasons you know there's the
34:50famous Nixon Kennedy debate in the
34:54United States where people in those days
34:57people were still listening those 1960
34:59it's 50 years ago people were listening
35:02to radio and the people who listened to
35:05the debate on radio thought Nixon won
35:09and the people who saw it on television
35:11thought Kennedy won overwhelmingly the
35:16words were the same but the look was
35:20different and they voted on the look not
35:23the words we learned that you know since
35:28the 1960 since 1937 days when they had
35:33Richard Nixon and Lyndon Johnson no
35:36American politician has been ugly Lyndon
35:42Johnson was ugly as can be he could not
35:44have been elected today he shouldn't
35:48have been elected then but but he
35:49couldn't be elected now we want
35:53nice-looking people by the way women
35:56it's very different women who run as
35:58well as public individuals need to look
36:03mannish so you will almost always see
36:06every woman who runs in a pantsuit
36:09almost every single one whether it's
36:14or Angela Merkel or whomever they will
36:17always be Tzipi Livni in Israel they
36:19will almost always be in a pensive geo
36:22let's never see them in a dress because
36:25they don't want to look feminine because
36:26feminine isn't strong enough they have
36:28to look masculine now men you know don't
36:32have to look terribly masculine but they
36:35can't be ugly they can't go like this
36:39I told a very very wealthy guy who was
36:41clearly a mistake on my part he was very
36:44wealthy that he shouldn't run for some
36:46office because he didn't look like a
36:48president left a lot of money on the
36:53table and he said it's a good guy you
36:54would like to you know who he is but but
36:59you know that it matters something is as
37:02simple as that something as meaningless
37:05as that is terribly meaningful one of
37:09the guys looking to run in the United
37:11States for president is a fella named
37:13Mitch Daniels mitch Daniels is about
37:16this high he's the governor of the state
37:19he's pretty conservative guy pretty
37:21fiscally responsible pretty good on
37:23issues pretty good on ideas but it's
37:26this high and and when the people get a
37:30picture of him because you know
37:31everybody so far his own photographs
37:33always take him like this but as soon as
37:36he stands next to somebody and people
37:38say he's this high my guess is his
37:41candidacy collapses again not because of
37:44ideas but because of a much more
37:46important thing what does he look like
37:48in any event I I would babble on for a
37:53while and then take some questions and
37:57hopefully get some answers so if you
38:01would like I'll be happy to answer some
38:19thank you very much the floor is now
38:32I spurred a lot of interest works to
38:49introduce ourselves oh okay I should I
38:55am an elected politician actually I work
38:58in the European Parliament and the
39:02question is because you started your
39:04work a long time ago 40 years ago what
39:07and the ways and means how to live with
39:10the message were quite different then
39:11and they are now what in a few words how
39:16would you characterize the difference
39:19between let's say beginning of 70s and
39:23now what are the main difference in
39:26delivering the message impulse you know
39:30technological ways and in content as
39:33well let me come up actually thank you
39:37for asking that because that's a whole
39:40section I really did want to get into
39:42and I can't answer it in a few words so
39:46back then I started talking about
39:49writing about two concepts that I had
39:52one I called the fragmentation of
39:55information and the second one was the
39:58velocity of communication let me talk
40:01about fragmentation first at that time
40:05television was growing and I even though
40:08it it hadn't become the huge cable kind
40:14of every everywhere place that it's
40:16become it was growing and it had some
40:19more stations newspapers and magazines
40:22were proliferating when I was a kid
40:25growing up a magazine a weekly magazine
40:29was look or life magazine in the States
40:32and what they would do is they would
40:33have two pages on health care three
40:37pages on politics a page on science
40:40three pages on sport something on
40:43gardening I mean it was and everything
40:46magazine and with nothing in it just
40:49pictures basically in little stories
40:52well because of the fragmentation of
40:56information instead of having one page
41:00on tennis once a year in this magazine
41:03you suddenly had 20 magazines on tennis
41:07today you have hundreds of magazines on
41:11tennis so you have more and more
41:13information about smaller and smaller
41:17things television itself has gone in
41:20that way and of course the Internet is
41:22going to make it even more true so that
41:25people are capable of knowing more and
41:28more about less and less you can sit
41:31home and watch the Golf Channel 24 hours
41:34a day know everything that's ever been
41:37known about golf but know nothing about
41:39anything else and in fact the news
41:42programming on cable and the the
41:46websites means that the people who will
41:49seek out news hour news seekers whereas
41:52all of this rest of the body public
41:55which maybe 60% who have no interest
41:59will find a way not to get any
42:01information the daily newspaper
42:04circulations everywhere in the world are
42:07way down people get their information
42:09from from the internet or from cable but
42:14the number of channels that they seek
42:17there are so many that you can
42:19absolutely just get the information you
42:21want there was a very famous television
42:24program called The Ed Sullivan Show back
42:29in the 60s and it was a variety show and
42:32they would have a guy come on with a
42:34puppet and then they'd had the
42:38Bolshoi Ballet then they'd have the
42:41Beatles and then they'd have an acrobat
42:45those programs are dead you can watch
42:49all the opera you want but you don't
42:53have to listen to anything you never
42:55have to see a juggler again in your life
42:57if you don't want to see one and that's
43:01that's one put that over here
43:03fragmentation of information I'll get to
43:05the answer to the question the second is
43:08velocity of communication what happened
43:12was the speed in which we received
43:15information increased increase to such
43:18an extent that it's now real-time in
43:22other words when when the u.s. is
43:24invading a country CNN has its cameras
43:27capturing the invasion it is
43:32we watched Barack Obama watching the
43:36SEALs take out Osama bin Laden undermine
43:44cannot be believed in terms of the way
43:47the world is so speed of information you
43:50pick up a newspaper it's old news it was
43:53yesterday it was six hours ago so it has
43:57to be very very fast and this speaks to
43:59your issue the people who are going to
44:03be successful going forward in politics
44:06are those who are going to understand
44:09the fragmentation remember I said MTV is
44:12no place for a pension message and those
44:16that are capable of also understanding
44:18the speed in which it must be delivered
44:21and taking advantage of riots in Greece
44:25next day you have to have a statement
44:27three days later is too late so you you
44:31have to be we have to be faster on our
44:34feet we have to be faster in our
44:37thinking we can be less less thoughtful
44:43in how we make decisions and makes time
44:48so this is a very very important
44:50question and it's going to get worse
44:53because your children are going to grow
44:57up in a world in which there were never
44:59any breath of information everything
45:04they will have known they will have
45:06gotten off of their seven favorite blogs
45:08and and God knows what information
45:12they're going to get and the speed in
45:13which they get it I cannot believe that
45:16newspapers in a hardcopy will be around
45:19in 40 years I don't think it'll be there
45:22I don't think print will be there you
45:25know when we send out mail and I love
45:27sending mail you send mail to people my
45:29age because my age still reads it if
45:34you're in your twenty-something you
45:36don't read mail you read emails and even
45:40there you click a button and get rid of
45:42it so it's a very what you're it's
45:44raising is is every everybody who does
45:47politics in the world needs to think
45:49about fragmentation of information
45:52velocity of communication they have come
45:54together into a damn serious place okay
46:02I might as well just that hello my name
46:09is Yong Chi Chuan apart some consultants
46:11when you mentioned velocity of
46:13information does this mean that in the
46:16future people who are used to instance
46:19information will be convinced of issues
46:22or candidates faster than they are at
46:24the moment and what in turn what does
46:26this mean for all the time he needs in
46:29order to prepare a campaign coming back
46:30to about you one of the four factors
46:32does this mean the time will increase or
46:34will you have we need to spend more time
46:36on the fragmented issues wonderful
46:40actually Barack Obama is a perfect
46:45example of of both of those things
46:50Barack Obama was a state senator a minor
46:55legislatively four years before he was
46:58president he went from being this minor
47:02figure in a state legislature serving in
47:05Illinois he then he then won a u.s.
47:11senator excuse me he then won a US
47:16Senate race as a candidate of structure
47:21and because he was a an african-american
47:25Democrat in a very african-american
47:28state with lots of Democratic advantages
47:31so he won he then gets to the United
47:34States Senate immediately runs for the
47:37presidency but the way he does is
47:40utilizes the new social media and is
47:43able to become a darling of a segment of
47:47the population that is twittered in and
47:51and blogged in raises 750 million
47:57dollars through the internet I might add
48:00the second to Barack Obama was wrong
48:03Hall in terms of his success on the
48:06internet but he became overnight he
48:09existed where as an aerial Sharona in
48:12Israel was a warrior in the 48th war he
48:17led a group in Lebanon in the 80s he did
48:20such and such in the 90s that was the
48:24old traditional way you built up
48:26awareness level Barack Obama was exactly
48:30this from nowhere and we can get the
48:35from nowhere candidates all over the
48:38world it's just a question of figuring
48:40out and this goes to this figuring out
48:43how to get that done how to put on that
48:46suit that makes you acceptable very
48:51quickly and you could pick a very narrow
48:53issue and remember the issue can be very
48:57emotional rather than rational somebody
49:00who sits there and says I have the
49:02seven-point plan for fixing the pension
49:06system is is gonna disappear but the guy
49:10who says I'll tell you what we have to
49:12do throw them out get rid of those
49:16tickle-tickle pick a name of a group so
49:19quickly become and and it becomes scary
49:21because it can happen so fast and no
49:24less time needs to be spent figuring it
49:28out but time also will go faster so if
49:35you become an overnight sensation
49:38you will fall apart also overnight so so
49:42there has to be at least some building
49:45but it's a variant that's why movie
49:47stars and you know in the United States
49:50movie stars and Ronald Reagan took
49:53advantage of that stardom to become you
50:00who's on Ronald Reagan a movie star
50:02could be president but but that's what
50:07happened now the the the blogs are
50:10basically supplanting the movie stars
50:12it's it's fascinating it's messing like
50:14you don't love the question okay
50:17anything else I'm student of this school
50:26and I run and I would like to ask you
50:31what do you think are the chances of Ron
50:33Paul being elected actually because he's
50:35probably going to run as an independent
50:36so he's up against two political parties
50:40this bipartisan system which is sort of
50:45running the same budget deficit and same
50:48politics for many years now what do you
50:49think are the chances well you know ron
50:53paul i keep saying about ron paul is
50:57that unfortunately he's not really a
50:59serious political actor he is he won't
51:02run as an independent i don't think by
51:04the way i think he'll run as a
51:05republican stay as a republican i think
51:08i'll stay as a republican because of his
51:10son i think his son four years from now
51:15will take a serious race for the
51:17presidency and i think you'll see that
51:20more likely to occur than Ron Paul
51:23seriously contended Ron Paul will end up
51:26with three percent of the vote or five
51:29percent of the vote but he plays a very
51:32important role in helping to define a
51:39freedom thing a very complicated and I'm
51:43not going to go into it here except to
51:45just talk about it when I started in
51:48politics the Republican Party only had
51:51two separate wings one group of
51:54Republicans were free-market people and
51:57one group was anti-communist they
52:00obviously had a lot in common
52:03the anti communists were anti-communist
52:07because they wanted the world to be free
52:08market and they thought communists were
52:11undermining fundamental freedoms and
52:14free markets and the free market is
52:18wanted a Milton Friedman desk kind of
52:22government over time the Republican
52:26Party got involved in some other issues
52:29most importantly in the 60s was the
52:32civil rights movement and they opposed
52:34it and they opposed the civil rights on
52:38libertarian basis they opposed the civil
52:41rights movement because businesses had
52:44the right to employ who they wanted to
52:46at the price they wanted to etc even if
52:49blacks were being denied access so
52:54somebody like Barry Goldwater who I
52:56started with and I loved and I had the
52:58big picture of me and Goldwater in my
53:00office one of my few heroes was opposed
53:05to the civil rights bill but in fact it
53:09gave off the idea that he was a racist
53:11not that he was in economic libertarian
53:14and so the Republican Party attracted
53:18racists again the point is the rational
53:22argument and the emotional argument of
53:24two different arguments and and we
53:27didn't know I didn't know that back land
53:29of course but Republicans were filled
53:33with these races and after we were
53:35filled with races we were felled filled
53:37with people who were evangelical
53:39religionists who followed behind them
53:43and so we had three wings all of a
53:45sudden we had this economic libertarian
53:48wing we had this foreign policy
53:50anti-communist wing but we had a group
53:53of people who didn't like blacks and who
53:56were religious and look very much like
53:58yo Burt Franklin joining the party and
54:03what has happened over time is the
54:06libertarian side that both first of all
54:09communism collapsed and so when
54:11communism collapsed this wing
54:13disappeared or war got much smaller the
54:17free market is all of a sudden found
54:20themselves with the racist and we're
54:23and so now you have a party that has an
54:29economic side but you also have this
54:32other side and so when you talk about
54:35people like Michele Bachmann or there's
54:39a Senator Santorum these people are
54:44running and Mike Huckabee just pulled
54:46himself out of the presidential races we
54:48can mike huckabee is an economic liberal
54:51and a social conservative I mean he's
54:55the exact reverse of what libertarians
54:58are and he's one of the leaders of the
55:00party so so Ron Paul's job is to try to
55:05keep the Republican Party geared towards
55:08its economic base but it might be a
55:11losing effort I don't know where this is
55:13heading but I do know that the growth of
55:16this group particularly again this goes
55:18back to what I said earlier about the
55:20economic problems of the world these
55:24people you know anti-mexican
55:27you know anti-muslim these people are
55:32growing and growing and growing in the
55:34United States and will continue to grow
55:36on those issues they will talk about the
55:38economy but it's not what they're about
55:41they're about anger and as long as the
55:45unemployment rate stays higher this
55:47group will grow it would not surprise me
55:49not only not that Ron Paul won't be
55:51nominated that won't surprise me but it
55:54would surprise me if one of these people
55:55are not nominated by the Republicans and
55:59if they are the Barack Obama will
56:01the election and Barack Obama is a
56:05disaster for America for the world my
56:09deal these people are no better we have
56:12a problem we have problem the leadership
56:14of this world then this goes to the
56:16question is are there people out there
56:19who can now as Barry Goldwater once did
56:22hold up a flag of freedom and fight for
56:26free markets freedom among people
56:29freedom among countries right now it's
56:32it's it's not really growing it's really
56:35shrinking so that's a very pessimistic
56:37view but it's my view sorry how to
56:45counter that you run I'll do the race
56:48you run yeah hi my name is obvious
56:53attacker you outlined the threat of
56:57something like a return to the politics
57:00of the 1930s as a result of the economic
57:03downturn the rise of populism and
57:06xenophobia well so far it seems relative
57:11to the depth of the recession it's not
57:13that bad in the United States that's
57:16number one number two if you are back to
57:18the 30s what does it matter all the
57:20blogging and the instant media I mean
57:22Hitler just used the radio and he was
57:24pretty good at that and thirdly I'll ask
57:27you the difficult questions the ethical
57:29question what you're saying basically is
57:32if you want to run a good right-wing
57:35candidate right now rather than talk
57:37about free markets you talk about the
57:39danger from X and the need to get rid of
57:42X and that will get the fellow elected
57:44at the same time you would be feeding
57:47the flames what would you do yeah it's a
57:50very problem than that the well first of
57:54all let me talk about the the
57:55fundamental part of your question which
57:59was that I'm comparing it to the 1930s
58:01as a matter of fact what I have said to
58:05people is that because of my work here
58:09in Eastern Europe and particularly
58:12hungry but not just yo begin hungry
58:15watching what's happening in with strata
58:17in Austria and elsewhere is that if the
58:20unemployment rate was 35 percent not 9
58:25percent not 10% then then maybe we would
58:29be watching the rise of another Hitler
58:31type because you can now see how it
58:34happened you could see how the anger
58:37developed into something much larger I
58:40agree with you it's not anywhere near as
58:42bad but the fact that this has happened
58:45in this economy I can't imagine how the
58:50pressure must have been in the 30s with
58:5430 percent unemployment and the anger
58:56level and the ability not to look for
58:59freedom but to look for a strong leader
59:01who would tell those people to stop
59:04again whoever those people are as far as
59:08the the ethical questions I face is a
59:13political guy you know I've always felt
59:16that the only person who really can
59:20speak for me is me so I always have the
59:24problem of supporting people who
59:27disagree with me on something sometimes
59:31of many many things sometimes I can work
59:34for somebody because I like them
59:37sometimes I can work for somebody
59:39because frankly it doesn't matter
59:41whether he wins or somebody else was you
59:44know it doesn't there's no difference it
59:46would be very hard for me to work for
59:49somebody with whom I have fundamental
59:51disagreements against somebody with whom
59:56I more agree if it's close it doesn't
59:59matter but but if it but if it if it's
01:00:01substantial there are three candidates
01:00:05for the United States presidency this
01:00:07year who have asked me to do their race
01:00:08for president and I've said no in all
01:00:11three cases all Republicans obviously
01:00:13all conservatives but I've said no
01:00:16because the presidency is so important
01:00:19that I want somebody who at some level
01:00:23I agree with I mean I am I hate the
01:00:27Republican field there is nobody out
01:00:30there right now that I feel Ron Paul did
01:00:33not ask there is nobody out to see that
01:00:36I would do now even if it isn't serious
01:00:39just because it would be it would be fun
01:00:41to do and the right thing to do I have
01:00:45arrived a real problem in the ethical
01:00:47part of this is is exactly right I said
01:00:49upstairs that I you know I went into
01:00:52this as a kid to change the world
01:00:54because I was an absolute ideologue I
01:00:57would I would stand outside lists on
01:01:00soap boxes in Greenwich Village at 3
01:01:03o'clock in the morning and argue with
01:01:04people about the nature of freedom I was
01:01:07one of those I still am kind of but I
01:01:11said I wanted to change the world and I
01:01:14said I did I made it worse and it wasn't
01:01:17it wasn't my it wasn't what I wanted to
01:01:20do but but this is a national question
01:01:22about where do you go one of the things
01:01:25you have to like about Iran Paul is that
01:01:27he is he has gone down without much
01:01:30votes year after year after year but he
01:01:33studies what he wants to say and he does
01:01:34what he wants to do my job is to elect
01:01:37other people and to stay in the
01:01:39that's what I've chosen to do is it the
01:01:42right choice I can't replay it now so
01:01:45it's what it is it's but it's a tough
01:01:47one it's a very tough ethical question
01:01:49you raised thank you for the question
01:01:52anything else thank you if I could have
01:01:55a follow up question yes please I've
01:01:56recently read a book by Obama Cesare
01:02:01Kazan steam about spreading rumors and
01:02:05he says that because of the information
01:02:08cascades and all thing it's actually
01:02:11very dangerous to help spreading the
01:02:14half-truth or information that are not
01:02:18hundred percent right that it is a
01:02:21danger for democracy as such you are an
01:02:23expert on spreading things around you
01:02:26say that you are you feel being
01:02:29constrained by your conscious virtue
01:02:33whatever but will you join some steam in
01:02:38arguing that you in the name of saving
01:02:40democracy you need to limit the freedom
01:02:43of speech at least a little bit no I
01:02:46would never look at the freedom of
01:02:48speech even though but I but but the
01:02:52problem raised is very real in other
01:02:54words because of the internet anybody
01:02:58can write anything about anybody at any
01:03:00time and it's accepted as truth because
01:03:03we accept things as truth and and as you
01:03:07know clarifying a Mis truth is much more
01:03:11difficult than just making an attack so
01:03:14so it's it's very bad but you know
01:03:17freedom of speech is sacrosanct to me
01:03:19and I would never limit it I also do not
01:03:24knowingly engage in that by the way I do
01:03:27not slander somebody without proof but
01:03:33with proof I'm happy to in other words I
01:03:37have no problem you know saying this guy
01:03:42voted to raise taxes 20 years ago on on
01:03:45fish and he says I never raise taxes I
01:03:49haven't done it in 20 years I mean you
01:03:51raised it on fish you know argue that
01:03:55but but lying has never been my
01:03:58specialty even though I have a
01:03:59reputation for doing it it's not it's
01:04:01not what I do I never have done it I've
01:04:04never knowingly lied about or anybody
01:04:06I've run very tough races but I've never
01:04:08never lied about anybody
01:04:15with afternoon except maybe this guy
01:04:18like I would like to ask you what do you
01:04:21think about negative campaigning and
01:04:24there are some borders of it negative
01:04:28campaigning is is an unfair title
01:04:31because it suggests that what you're
01:04:33saying is untrue negative campaigning
01:04:37just means that you speak about the
01:04:41failings of your opponent as opposed to
01:04:44the virtues of your candidate so if I
01:04:47said I am the only candidate in this
01:04:50race who has voted time and time again
01:04:53to reduce taxes you'd say that's
01:04:56perfectly okay if I said she is the only
01:05:02candidate in this race who has voted to
01:05:04raise taxes time and time again that
01:05:07would be negative campaigning why it
01:05:11seems to me that it's perfectly
01:05:12legitimate for me to say I won't raise
01:05:15taxes you will raise taxes I haven't
01:05:18raised taxes you have raised taxes vote
01:05:21for me you know where I stand
01:05:24vote for her you'll get a tax increase
01:05:27that's a typical commercial and it's
01:05:31polled negative campaigning but it isn't
01:05:34what people usually mean by negative
01:05:37campaigning is a picture of somebody in
01:05:40a bedroom you know like the IMF guy with
01:05:46the maid you know what was he doing to
01:05:49that made in that chamber by the way
01:05:51isn't it amazing that this poor guy 48
01:05:56hours ago was a great respected leader
01:06:00of the world and without a single proven
01:06:04bit of evidence he is now a joke for me
01:06:08standing here and prod to to this group
01:06:11and most everybody knows what I'm
01:06:13talking about which is what we do with
01:06:15this the the velocity of communications
01:06:18and how easy it is to destroy somebody
01:06:22over over what mate it may turn out that
01:06:25she was blackmailing him and there was
01:06:28doesn't matter he's dead you know she's
01:06:33a celebrity she'll write a book now if
01:06:35my night with the IMF and but but back
01:06:40to the negative campaigning it is it is
01:06:44and it is too powerful because we really
01:06:48don't want to know what he thinks we
01:06:52really want to know who's sleeping with
01:06:54and and we really want to know what
01:06:57drugs he takes or sells I've heard about
01:07:00you and and you know we want to know we
01:07:04want to know who gave them a bribe to
01:07:07build that bridge I have a five-point
01:07:11plan to pick something who cares I mean
01:07:14I mean the people really I mean again
01:07:19watch television programs the the
01:07:21programs that have the highest ratings
01:07:24are the ones that deal in nonsense this
01:07:28story about the guy with the IMF I don't
01:07:30meet the point you you you aren't there
01:07:32at least I've heard you weren't there
01:07:35but this story with the guy from the IMF
01:07:38it's just one of those stories and and
01:07:41it would be called negative campaigning
01:07:42if I did a campaign commercials said you
01:07:45know Hans whatever his name is you know
01:07:50got caught in a bedroom with a maid what
01:07:54quick vote for Jones see I did love this
01:08:02stuff I mean that's just and it's too
01:08:04easy and that's the problem and the
01:08:06problem is that also the speed in which
01:08:09it happens you can you can cut somebody
01:08:12off at the neck instantly this poor guy
01:08:16you know I mean what is he gonna say to
01:08:18his kids in the morning let's say
01:08:20nothing nothing nothing happened
01:08:24he will forever be destroyed
01:08:27doesn't matter if nothing happened
01:08:29dangerous it's a dangerous world
01:08:31movement and I don't but but am I in
01:08:34favor of negative campaigning yes as
01:08:36long as it's honest any more questions
01:08:42okay take we don't thank you
01:09:10and thank you too
01:09:13we can now switch into informal part of
01:09:17our grand event there is some wine and
01:09:19cookies waiting for us to be eaten and
01:09:21discuss the virtue of negative campaign
