00:00I would like to give you uh some
00:01practical information first this is
00:04being filmed the reason it's being
00:06filmed is because I I I paid for it to
00:09be filmed because I wanted you to have a
00:11lasting memory of this day there's
00:13another reason why it's filmed and why I
00:15have handed out the PowerPoint
00:18presentation in the telegram group that
00:22I have created just for this because uh
00:27well by by way of a little story Steve
00:30Ward over there who will be coming on
00:32this stage in an hour's time he's got a
00:35PowerPoint presentation of just six
00:41slides and and he wondered if it was too
00:47much but then I told him that my
00:50PowerPoint slide was 801 slides and he
00:54looked at me like you might look at
01:01but ladies and gentlemen the reason why
01:02I want to give you 801 slides is because
01:05I feel that I got something that will be
01:08of lasting value to you and I have
01:10chosen a topic which is of all the
01:14topics I could have chosen I chose the
01:16most difficult of ones I've chosen some
01:19hardcore analysis of the footsy index
01:22the reason why I chose that is because I
01:24felt that if I can trade the footy index
01:28successfully then I believe I can trade
01:30pretty much anything and I have had
01:32great problems with the footy index and
01:35I looked at well we'll get to that so do
01:38I think that I can go through 801 slides
01:42in the two hours that I have at my
01:45availability well do the math there's uh
01:487,200 seconds in a you can do the math
01:51we're talking about about 8 seconds per
01:53slide and I've already spoken two
01:56minutes about one slide so we can see
01:57we're already lagging behind
02:00the reason why there are so many slides
02:02is because of all the documentation that
02:04I have proven so I'm going to postulate
02:08something you know a professor will
02:09postulate a hypothesis I want to not
02:13postulate I want to actually take you
02:16through the entire Journey that I have
02:18been over the last three months from
02:21acknowledging during midye that my footy
02:24trading was not good to what I actually
02:30I feel that if I am able to give you the
02:35tools that the strategy that I saw that
02:39I realized what was going on I actually
02:42think that you're going to come away
02:43from here going oh that was really
02:45interesting uh a little bit iffy in
02:48places but really really quite
02:50interesting but considering I got 800
02:52slides I think I'm just going to get
02:54going immediately and then in one hour
02:57someone is just going to give me a
02:58little notot and saying now it's Steve
03:01turn Steve is then going to take the
03:02stage for one hour and by the way Steve
03:05thank you so much for being here it's an
03:06absolute pleasure to share the stage
03:13then and then when Steve has done his
03:16hour H maybe we also need a f- minute
03:19break at some point I imagine and then I
03:21will carry on for an hour as well so um
03:24I won't spend too much time on a
03:26disclaimer it's just to say you know
03:27you're all ad adults and uh
03:31da good this is the temperamental little
03:35thing I got here so this is what I would
03:37like to go through with you today first
03:39of all I want to talk to you about what
03:41is situational analysis so we are so
03:43used to technical analysis moving
03:45averages Ballinger bands Fibonacci
03:48ratios and it gets more and more
03:50sophisticated now it's footprint charts
03:52it's uh what's that gentleman in uh in
03:54America uh Inner Circle Trader liquidity
03:58trap and uh and all of the these fancy
04:00things great I have the greatest respect
04:02for that however I I can't help but
04:04thinking that being really really good
04:07at technical analysis doesn't
04:09necessarily ensure that I will be a good
04:12Trader now that's what I got Steve Ward
04:15for it because he will somehow link the
04:17bridge between what I know and what I'm
04:20actually able to execute it's the old
04:22Liam niss scene with Christian Bale out
04:25on the pond in Batman Begins you know
04:27knowledge is nothing without the will to
04:29act you've heard me say it many times
04:32before I won't bore you to tears with it
04:33again but nevertheless I feel that often
04:36time in the evolution of mankind and
04:40especially our own personal Journeys
04:42there are things that we know and then
04:44there's things that we do and those two
04:46are not necessarily aligned and I think
04:48from a personal point of view but I
04:50think I I think many of you will share
04:52that sentiment that many of you know
04:54that you have within you the ability to
04:57be better Traders so partner parcel of
05:01801 PowerPoint slide and there's only
05:04one of them that says Merry Christmas so
05:06that's 800 slides which really pertains
05:09to okay this is Hardcore research I
05:12didn't want to stand here on a stage and
05:14give you two hours of Li d da it's just
05:19not what I do and this will either be my
05:21greatest idea ever or I'm going to sink
05:24like the Titanic we will only know in a
05:26couple of hours time obviously I'm going
05:28to do my very best to make sure that
05:30these two fre hours will absolutely fly
05:33and but perhaps more importantly that
05:35you're are going to get a deep insight
05:37into in this case the footy index but
05:39more importantly you will get a really
05:42really deep insight into what a
05:44full-time professional High State Trader
05:47actually does behind the scenes and by
05:49there I'm not talking about what I had
05:51to for breakfast but I'm talking about
05:52the level of preparation that goes in
05:55and why I use something called
05:57situational analysis the the PowerPoint
06:00presentation will be in your possession
06:02and once uh the that gentleman over
06:05there called Alex he has actually edited
06:08the video it is yours to have for free
06:11no no no no no additional cost or
06:13something it is yours because I want you
06:15to have that as something that you can
06:17refer back to constantly in your quest
06:21to better yourself as Traders I also
06:24want to talk about uh how to relax with
06:27a little exercise and and well you can
06:30see the rest of it here so let's get
06:32cracking with what is situational
06:35analysis and how is that different to
06:37what we know as technical analysis so
06:41I'm mindful immensely mindful I'm just
06:44going to talk myself warm so I might
06:45just be reading a little bit from the
06:47slide I am mindful that day trading is
06:49immensely challenging and taxing on both
06:52body and mind I know that because I know
06:55that once the trading day is over is it
06:58been one of those really volatile days
07:00or even one of those you know Turtle
07:02quiet days that's been recently I find
07:05myself being overtly tired in my mind
07:09and also in my body so so I've come to
07:12the conclusion that the only way for me
07:17well is to attack it on all fronts it
07:20means I have to make sure that I sleep
07:23well a little funny f a little funny
07:26side story because we don't have that
07:28much time for Side Stories but I've
07:29learned to brew kombucha this year but
07:32what I really didn't know was the
07:33caffeine intake that kombucha presents
07:36so when I was Gosling down half a liter
07:38of Kombucha for dinner no one actually
07:40told me that I was Gosling the essential
07:43of 10 espressos just before before
07:45bedtime and I've been struggling with
07:47sleeping in the last couple of months
07:49not really realizing there was probably
07:51all the caffeine that was coagulating it
07:53through my my bloodstreams that kept me
07:55awake and all really jittery so I cut it
07:57out and I've been sleeping like a baby
07:59baby kombucha is good for you but
08:01apparently a half a liter before bedtime
08:03is not so good for you anyway joking
08:06aside I look after myself both
08:08physically and mentally I make sure that
08:10I sleep well I make sure that I eat well
08:13but I also incredibly mindful of how I
08:16eat and when I eat and I don't want to
08:18make this an exercise into diet because
08:21I am not qualified to give that kind of
08:23guidance however I I wonder if you can
08:27just imagine that you've just come from
08:29a lunch with a friend of yours and
08:31you've had the biggest bowl of pasta at
08:34that Lush Italian restaurant around the
08:36corner where from you live and then
08:37you're sat down for the US session and
08:40about 30 minutes into the US session no
08:42matter how volatile the NASDAQ is you
08:44simply can't keep yourself awake because
08:47your blood sugar just dive through the
08:49floor I will at all cost avoid something
08:53like that because if there's something
08:55that it does it kills my
08:57concentration now that that was the more
08:59personal front but I've also grown
09:01incredibly cynical about technical
09:03analysis technical analysis in any form
09:06that you can think of higher highs
09:08higher lows um double bottom double tops
09:12and it's not that it doesn't work
09:14because all of it works some of the time
09:17but nothing works all of the time a very
09:20famous Trader called tet on a on a
09:23bulletin board called Avid trade I've
09:25once said that and I've always remember
09:27it because there was someone who was
09:29immensely qualified immensely
09:31professional but he also had to
09:32acknowledge that even though he had all
09:34the skills and all the expertise and all
09:37the trading hours in front of the screen
09:39he too excuse me he would face things
09:43that he hadn't seen before or he simply
09:45was incapable of trading the market well
09:49that day so I felt that in order for me
09:53to truly optimize my time in front of a
09:56screen I actually had to be much more
10:03um Let Me cast your mine back a year
10:09maybe you can relate to this yourself
10:11the Dax has just opened and it does what
10:14does and you're thinking oh I'm quite
10:17bullish or I'm quite bearish or whatever
10:20it may be what should I do should I be a
10:22buyer or should be a seller I was in
10:23those shoes as well and I've been in
10:25those shoes many many many times in my
10:27life but then I real realized actually I
10:30don't want to be that person I don't
10:32want to be the I am bullish or I am
10:35bearish because as I will show you in
10:37one of the slides I went through 30
10:40years of Dow Jones history ladies and
10:447,000 500 trading days I investigated in
10:48the Dow Jones index and I statistically
10:52concluded that over the last 30
10:57years half of all Dow Jones trading
11:03higher than the previous day
11:06close and the other half closed down on
11:09the day so I thought to myself what's
11:12the point in being really bullish or
11:14really bearish when actually even though
11:17the Dow Jones over the last 30 years
11:18have gone from a price level around
11:213,000 what's WR was trading about 10
11:24about 30 years ago the Dow Jones was
11:26trading around the 3,000 Mark to to
11:29today being at 35,000 so even though
11:31that we've had an absolutely exponential
11:33bull market over the last 30 years the
11:36distribution of winning days to losing
11:38days in the Dow Jones index is still
11:4150/50 so I felt well hang on if that
11:44really is the case I may as well just
11:45flip a coin and then decide whether to
11:47be bullish or bearish because the odds
11:50are that I'm dealing with Randomness
11:53anyway so that led me to a much more
11:57specific approach toch technical
11:59analysis which I have then coined
12:01situational analysis and that's not me
12:03being a snob or anything like that it
12:04wasn't because I wanted to stand out I
12:06just thought it's not quite technical
12:08analysis no it's specific to a situation
12:11and it actually started with the fomc
12:14research that I did where where I
12:15developed that that rule that I call the
12:17rule of four where you take the
12:1910-minute chart after the fomc day and
12:22then you say on the fourth 10-minute
12:25chart which coincides with when the
12:27press conference has has been 10 minutes
12:29into their session I'm actually going to
12:31bracket that I'm going to be a buyer
12:32above and I'm going to be a seller below
12:34and right now it's got a pretty Flawless
12:36treack Ro track record of either
12:38breaking even or making money at a 100%
12:41rate I'm sure we will experience a loser
12:43one day because of course nothing ever
12:45works all the time so I coined that
12:49situational analysis and what I want to
12:51introduce to you today is what do we
12:55do what do we do if the first first bar
12:59of the day in the footsie is negative
13:02how do we deal with that and we'll get
13:05to that I'm getting a little bit ahead
13:06of myself now I want to tell you just a
13:09slight little story which is in here uh
13:13I did a very thorough review of my
13:16trading abilities some years ago and I
13:20found that I was probably just the best
13:23Trader there was around but only from
13:268:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. if I judged my
13:29performance from 10:00 a.m. until about
13:322:00 p.m. UK time I would probably fall
13:35into the category of or kind of you know
13:39yeah bit hit and miss there very good
13:42from 8 to 10 not very good from 10 to 2
13:45and actually okay from 2 to 4 but not
13:49great definitely much better in the
13:51morning then I went on holiday and this
13:53is while I was working for a cfd broker
13:59I was allowed to prop trade uh the
14:01company's account and during that
14:03holiday which was a 14-day holiday I did
14:05very well I did so well so when I came
14:07back to the uh uh to the office the boss
14:11called me and said someone's on a bit of
14:13a roll and the truth is ladies and
14:15gentlemen I actually didn't know how
14:18well I had done I had just traded and it
14:22kind of led me to think well what did I
14:24do that was so great because I was on
14:26holiday and I didn't trade that much and
14:29I kind of reverse engineered and I
14:30decided that one I slept more two I only
14:35traded at a very specific times of the
14:37morning and then I bucker off to the
14:39pool and as a result of it I placed far
14:42fewer trades than I would normally
14:48place so back to situational
14:52analysis I I run a telegram group I do
14:55it free of charge because I think it's
14:57fun it's nice to have have someone that
14:59you are responsible for and you're also
15:02accountable to that accountability is of
15:05great benefit because what what Another
15:08Side Story so but do you know how you
15:10separate yourself from for example some
15:12of the people that Steve Ward will no
15:14doubt discuss because Steve Ward he is
15:17the you know he's the coach to the you
15:19know the creme creme the really hedge
15:22fund phenomenals but you know what they
15:24have that we don't have they have
15:27someone looking over their shoulder
15:29saying hey Bob do you think you've done
15:31enough damage for one day maybe you
15:32should just take a break we don't have
15:34someone and coming and knocking on our
15:36shoulder say hey should you cut it a day
15:39and if you have completely unrestricted
15:41ability to do as much self-damage as you
15:44can possibly muster in one trading
15:46session and let's face it ladies and
15:48gentlemen we all sat there and said
15:50you da I'm going to short the out
15:52of you for no other reason for no other
15:55reason that you piss me off all of us
15:59have done that we've all found ourselves
16:04Mist but Bob doesn't have that Red Mist
16:08because he's got a compliance manager
16:10going enough for today Bob right it is
16:13it we don't have that so we not only
16:16have to have a Flawless strategy we also
16:22self-control so what I'm arguing here
16:25ladies and gentlemen what if we actually
16:27developed approach to tr waiting which
16:29was much more situational than just
16:31sitting there aimlessly throughout the
16:33day from early morning to late night
16:36thinking that we can maintain that level
16:38of concentration for that amount of
16:42hours that is what I want to talk to you
16:46about so I released the first H to you
16:49and I'm happy to do these things because
16:51I find and obviously I'm hoping that
16:53when I tell you about the first bar
16:55negative in the foot it's not going to
16:57have the same fate that my School run
16:59strategy which I've lost a school run
17:01was fantastic in in August I made a lot
17:04of money and I was on holiday which was
17:05the greatest part of it and then
17:06September all my performance nose dive
17:09and then October seemed to find another
17:11you know second breath and then all of a
17:13sudden November School run an aggressive
17:15School run I mean I might as well just
17:17sign over a Blanco check to the to the
17:19broker at the moment because nothing
17:21seems to be working my my FX trading is
17:24to pits as well but you know what I
17:27stand Here on a age being totally and
17:30brutally honest about it because I know
17:32that the worst thing you can possibly
17:34happen is to have some YouTube guru that
17:37never ever loses and it's frustrating
17:39because who are you kidding who are you
17:42kidding when you think that that you
17:45never lose of course you lose we all
17:47lose in fact I wrote a little book
17:49called best loser wins and it's all
17:51about how to actually lose well so that
17:54you are able to win in the long
17:59so hardcore analysis so to to set the
18:01stage for the research I'd like to uh
18:04I'd like to present I want to go over
18:06the last month only and after I've done
18:08that I want to go back over the
18:10statistics for the last four years so
18:12over the last four years there's been
18:14approximately 1,300 trading days in the
18:17footy 100 I mean about 1,200 it's a
18:20little bit more than a year so before I
18:22I do that I want to talk to to to you
18:24briefly about the realities of trading
18:28difficult profession to master and I uh
18:33I say that as someone who has made it
18:35his living to do this um every single
18:38day and making his bread and butter from
18:41what I make but I also say that from the
18:44point of view of someone who has worked
18:46for a brokerage for 10
18:48years uh I'm about to present to you
18:51some research in the footy which I know
19:00you some of you witnessed the uh uh the
19:03little Manda we did for David Paul well
19:06David Paul once said
19:12only I was as mentally strong as my
19:17robust what he meant by that is if only
19:23execute my strategies flawlessly every
19:27single time because unlike me my
19:31strategies are very strong but I I'm
19:34just a feeble man and at times my
19:38energies will Vain and I won't be as
19:42application if only I
19:45was so why am I bringing this up well I
19:48do that because I wanted to just run
19:51through some basic mathematics with you
19:54and that is when I left the city about
19:5710 years years ago 13 years ago I earned
20:00an income of approximately
20:02£1,000 a year I was very well paid there
20:05is no doubt about that in today's money
20:10£150,000 so if I trade the footsie in
20:14£300 a point which is the same as
20:16trading 30 Lots at a time in the Futures
20:19Market if I was going to replicate my
20:22income that I had back then I had to
20:25make 500 footy points a year is that
20:30achievable well break it down say you
20:32don't have any holiday at all you have
20:34to make two footy points a day if your
20:38life depended on it could you make two
20:40footy points I'm pretty sure that you
20:41would be able to find one way or another
20:43to find two Foie points in the fie 100
20:47index but you know I can stand here and
20:51I can talk a pretty good game once you
20:53have been standing on a stage watch and
20:55you uh you sort of get over the initial
20:57stage fright and the and you know the
21:00whatever apprehension you have in
21:02talking to a big crowd you sort of just
21:03you sort of settle into it and then you
21:05sort of begin to rely on the material
21:09so I can talk a good game but do the
21:13statistics on my performance actually
21:16add up am I as good as I say I am well
21:19let's like a look at it am I able to
21:22make two footed points a day well and
21:28January I did okay but it's not exactly
21:30two foot points a day is it it's one
21:32foot point a day February oh I didn't
21:37win two points I lost two points on
21:40average then in March I came roaring
21:43back but only to give a third of it back
21:46in April and in May I just didn't trade
21:48footy and in June losing again July
21:51losing again and that's when I thought
21:53this can't go on I am not as good as I
21:57think I am and that's when I began to
22:03really uh nail down on what I'm teaching
22:06today and the results showed up 32 in
22:10August 68 in September 67 in October and
22:14I don't know where we are in November
22:17uh so with the right kind of
22:21preparation I think it is possible but
22:23there's many angles to consider do you
22:26have enough funding you know esma has
22:28made uh leverage trading difficult we
22:31can only trade with 30 to1 are you even
22:34able to handle leverage if you go with a
22:37broker outside the European Union there
22:39are Brokers out there that will give you
22:41200 300 400 to one but not everybody can
22:43handle that amount of
22:45Leverage and then can you actually trade
22:48can you be that focused to make two
23:00uh let's just look at the average salary
23:02in the UK is in the in the European
23:04Union here's the salary
23:08breakdown in different
23:11countries imagine that I wanted
23:18month and I wanted to make two points a
23:21day I would have to make 40 footy points
23:28in order to do that I would have to risk
23:31€125 a point that will require about €
23:354,300 in my account to do so on a 200
23:39leverage no those are just
23:43facts why am I talking about this what's
23:45the point you knew this already it's
23:50next what is also a fact that in order
23:53to benefit from what I'm about to show
23:55you you need to be able to run your your
23:58winners and be disciplined with your
24:00losers you are most likely going to have
24:03a very big inverse looking extrapolation
24:05meaning that you will probably have many
24:08small winners and many small losers and
24:16now what I want to do now is I want to
24:22month so now we're going to get specific
24:25ladies and gentlemen this was just the
24:27preamble now it's going to get very
24:29heavy as if it was a lecture at a
24:32university this is not an inspirational
24:34tour it's going to be very very
24:38heavy the focus is on the first candle
24:41of the day by first five minutes a day I
24:44mean that candle that takes place from
24:468:00 a.m. UK time until 8:05 UK time if
24:51you are in Europe you'll have to add an
24:54hour maybe two depending on where you
24:56are in Europe what's the setup
25:01well what you're seeing here are two
25:04different foottit charts they both go up
25:06but the first candle of the day to the
25:12positive and on the right chart the
25:15first candle of the day is
25:19negative so what we're doing now is that
25:21we are creating a situational analysis
25:30I asked myself a very simple question
25:33and this was prompted out of necessity
25:35you know the expression that necessity
25:37is the mother of all skill well every
25:41single morning I was presented with the
25:43foot to doing what the foot she was
25:44doing going up going down sometimes
25:47marching up sometimes just not doing
25:51anything and I thought to myself how do
25:54I create a piece of situational analysis
25:58index well I did School run I did
26:02aggressive School run on the fooie and I
26:04didn't feel that they statistically held
26:06up didn't feel that it gave me something
26:08of value then I began to explore with
26:13options what I specifically asked myself
26:16is how shall I trade the footsie when
26:18the first candle at the open is negative
26:21should I be bearish should I be bullish
26:24is there an edge to be
26:28as I stated on my last page my research
26:30is not completely done but I have looked
26:34back over the last 1250 trading days in
26:38the Foie index and I have
26:43single I have separated every single
26:48chart from those where the first bar is
26:51positive from those where the first buy
26:53is negative and I have ignored every
27:00where the first bar is positive and I
27:03have only looked at where the first buy
27:08negative and what I found ladies and
27:10gentlemen I felt has been the reason why
27:13I've had a much better performance in
27:16the foots index over the last four
27:18months now you can judge for yourself so
27:22over the last 22 days I trade with a
27:24broker we won't mention names because
27:26this is certainly not advertising for
27:28them but that broker on their five
27:31minute chart will only have 22 trading
27:33days so I look back over the footy ahead
27:36of this talk for the last two TW on the
27:39last 22 trading Days Seven of those 22
27:43trading days the first candle of the
27:48positive and 16 sorry 15
27:51days had at its first
27:56candle a negative negative bar
27:59now as I point out here this is a
28:02statistical outlier because when I did
28:05the research over the last four years
28:07ladies and gentlemen the allocation of
28:10the first bar being positive and the
28:12first bar being negative is 50/50 so why
28:15the last 22 trading days has got that
28:18kind of profile well it just goes to
28:24now what I'm going to do now is is take
28:28you through very slowly and meticulously
28:31but not so slow that you fall
28:34asleep what I actually mean by this and
28:36how I trade it when you look at the
28:38first bar and you see that it's a
28:40negative candle then what can happen
28:42well the second candle or subsequent
28:45candle third fourth fifth candle can go
28:47below the low of the first
28:50candle or the second candle can go above
28:54the high of the first
28:56candle over over the last 22 trading
29:01days the market went below the low 10
29:08times and over the last 22 trading
29:14days it went above the high for five
29:21times conventional breakout Theory would
29:24say that we should buy the breakout high
29:26and sell short the breakout low but what
29:29if we don't ladies and
29:31gentlemen what if we turn that argument
29:37head let's start with what if I short at
29:40the high of a negative
29:43bar this Arrow the blue arrow highlights
29:47a negative bar what if I sold short
29:50there now I know what you're thinking I
29:51wouldn't do that because the Market's
29:53going up but you don't know that at the
29:55time we are talking about what kind of
29:58action can you begin to implement today
30:02that will give you a statistical Edge
30:05over the next many years I didn't know
30:08that that was going to happen if I did
30:09that I would have bet the farm to go
30:11along but what if you had shorted right
30:14there let's look at that or what if you
30:22there this is the first bar what if you
30:25fought right at the low of that
30:28bar let's look at the numbers but before
30:31I do let's take you through the last
30:33month okay we'll do that relatively
30:35quick these are 22 charts coming
30:38up you might be thinking why is uh why
30:41were there only 15 observations well
30:43because out of those 22 seven of them
30:46had a positive candle so those I'm
30:50discussing here they are one by one what
30:56there what what if I bought right
31:00there what if I bought right there it's
31:03not looking good right now does it but
31:08wait what if I sold short right
31:13there what if I bought right
31:17there what if I bought right
31:20there what if I bought right there
31:23because that's at the
31:27what if I bought right there because it
31:32low what if I sold short right
31:35there what if I bought right
31:39there what if I bought right there does
31:43below what if I'd sold short
31:47here what if I bought right
31:51there what if I sold short right
31:56there what if I bought right
31:59there okay now we've gone through 15
32:03charts and you're thinking oh Jesus
32:05that's a lot to take in all of this is
32:06in your files but what actually becomes
32:08very interesting now is how does the
32:15up well let's take a look at what
32:18actually happens first I'll look at what
32:20happens when the second bar goes above
32:22the high of the first bar over these
32:26last 22 trading days we had 15
32:29observations on the first one it goes
32:30three points above on the second one it
32:33goes nine points above on the third one
32:35it goes 48 points above then 27 and then
32:400.5 now how much does it Max go in your
32:44favor if you had shorted at the first
32:46candle high with a 10-point stop
32:51well on the first one you would had a
32:54maximum when I say maximum that's the if
32:58you had perfect perfect foresight you
33:01would have maximum gotten 39 footy
33:04points out of it so there's 39 points to
33:07be had there's 45 points to be had and
33:10then twice you lost 10 and then you had
33:1568 in other words you have an absolute
33:19debt certain 20 point loss absolutely
33:22dead certain nothing can be done about
33:24that but you have a potential oh what's
33:2768 + 45 + 39 is that about
33:35thereabouts if you had to make up you
33:44you3 15 did I say 153 oh my God I was
33:50jeez if you had a maximum of 1504 points
33:55you're not going to get50 54 points of
33:57course you're not are you going to get
34:00half you're going to get about
34:06maybe but do you think you'd get a
34:10third would you be able to get a third
34:12out of 150 points that means You' get 50
34:16points so you have two dead certain
34:1910-point losers and you have potential
34:22of 150 of which you have to make a third
34:26of it now do you understand why it is so
34:30important that we learn to let the
34:33winners run because if we don't master
34:36that lesson we will never be able to
34:39make something as promising as this
34:43actually work out to be a fantastic
34:45strategy okay let's carry on what if you
34:49hadn't used a 10o stop loss what if you
34:51just used a fivepoint stop loss imagine
34:54it there we are it is Tuesday Morning
34:56the foot has just printed a big fat red
34:58candle and you have an opportunity to
35:01buy that low which is around say the low
35:04was 50 and you were able to buy it at 50
35:07or 49 perhaps and you put a stop loss at
35:1244 would you make money from this well
35:15you would you would stop out three times
35:18and then two times you have a profit
35:20potential of approximately 100 points so
35:22you lost 15 out of those 100 points I
35:25reckon all of you in here would be able
35:27to extract 15 points out of 100 proba
35:30you probably even do better now you
35:32might be thinking hang on this is very
35:33sweet but this is based on what research
35:36on what a month 22 trading days if I was
35:41going to do something like this I need
35:43that to be substantiated to a much
35:45greater extent than just 22 days and I
35:49agree with you I absolutely agree with
35:52okay flip the switch do you know what
35:55flip the switch mean
35:58do you know what flip the switch
35:59mean flip the switch mean that you have
36:02been short the market and all of a
36:05sudden contrary to your otherwise
36:07brilliant you realize that this Market
36:09is probably going up rather than down so
36:12you flip the switch from being short to
36:14being long it is one of the hardest
36:17mental exercises to do consistently and
36:21diligently without actually losing your
36:24mind I know a gentleman called Larry
36:26avento who says to me I can't do that I
36:30can't go from being short to being long
36:32I need to have a step away from the
36:34market are you able to flip the switch
36:37I'm not saying you have to be to be
36:39successful but having that mental
36:42flexibility to go from I'm really
36:45bearish really bearish to I'm really
36:47bullish really bullish the sooner that
36:50you are able to create that kind of
36:52behavior in your Market this so in your
36:54in your behavior in your approach to the
36:57market the sooner you will stop
36:59agonizing over being on the wrong side
37:04market what if we had a a flip the
37:07switch after 10 points so you would
37:10still make money on the first one but
37:13lost all of a sudden you have a Max
37:16profit potential of another
37:2017 I'm not saying that you need to do
37:25this my immediate conclusion is that I
37:28can't draw a conclusion based on 15
37:30occurrences you just can't so we'll
37:33ignore that conclusion
37:35temporarily but can we conclude that if
37:38the first candle is negative it makes
37:40sense to short the high of the first
37:42candle well based on this sample yes but
37:45I would need more evidence than just a
37:50okay what if I buy the low at a first
37:54negative bar you have to understand
37:56ladies and gentlemen this is situational
37:58analysis at its core on any given
38:01trading year you're going to have
38:05a25 days where the foot will open with a
38:09negative bar wouldn't it be fantastic
38:12that out of those 250 days that you're
38:15engaged with trading 125 of them you
38:18know with absolute Clarity and certainty
38:21what exactly you're going to do without
38:23any kind of hesitation or doubt you know
38:26okay this is a negative B I know exactly
38:28what to do when I was doing the uh when
38:32I was doing the uh after David Paul's
38:35Memorial I stood and I chatted with
38:36people uh for a couple of hours outside
38:39and there was a gentleman that asked me
38:41a question and and I answered him like
38:44this it was something to do with
38:46rehearsal and I said to him look I have
38:47a friend who is a commercial airline
38:50pilot he he I think he flies for for
38:53Thomas Cook or it could be Tui or or one
38:55of those anyway once a year he tells me
38:58they have to go into a flight simulator
39:01and in there they are put through their
39:02paces and so I said to him what what are
39:05you like you're taking off from herro
39:06and it's a nice sunny day and you're
39:08Landing in Copenhagen and said yeah you
39:10wish it's more like I'm setting off in a
39:12hurricane all of a sudden my co-pilot
39:14has a heart attack the steward this
39:16turns out to be a terrorist and by the
39:18way they're out of paninis and one of
39:20the engin is on fire now deal with it
39:23that's the kind of thing you are put
39:24through in a simulator you know put it
39:26through a a nice summer day so what if I
39:29could actually teach you something that
39:32happens approximately 11 times every
39:35single month so when you are there you
39:37know that's a negative but I know
39:39exactly what to do now just like my
39:42friend who's a pilot knows oh
39:44engine's on fire I know exactly what to
39:46do oh co-pilot has a heart attack I know
39:48exactly what to do oh terrorist sorry
39:51Steward this lovely Steward this turns
39:52out to be a malicious terrorist I know
39:57okay may not every situation here has an
39:59answer maybe the terrorist is from the
40:02steward this is a bit of a stretch but
40:03nevertheless what if I buy at the low of
40:08bar I will look at what happens when the
40:11second bar goes below the low of the
40:13first bar before doing anything else and
40:15here it is here's the statistic I won't
40:17read every single one of them because I
40:19am trying to get through this
40:23presentation to get to the the juicy bit
40:28my research has indicated that it does
40:31make sense to be a buyer it may not look
40:33like it but just allow me to show you
40:36the statistics not just for these last
40:3915 days but for the last 4 and a half
40:44trading this is what it looks like if I
40:48buy the low of the first negative candle
40:50at the lows of the candle using a
40:5210-point stop loss I would have two
40:55losers Min - 10 - 10 the third one I'm
40:59just able to move my stop loss up to
41:01break even before I get stopped out then
41:03I have a Max 43 footed points at a at a
41:07maximum I'm not saying I'm you can't you
41:10can't interpret that oh plus 40 Fe no no
41:12no no this is the absolute maximum that
41:15the market will give you but what I
41:17haven't factored in here ladies and
41:18gentlemen is that you adding to your
41:20winner haven't done that at
41:23all Max 43 Max 40 max 45 Max 25 Max 17
41:30then another loser and Max 40 I had I
41:34will have minus 30 points in clear
41:37losses over free trades and I will have
41:39a potential of plus 210
41:43points over seven trades this does not
41:47including the potential or risk if I
41:49added to the winning trade and for the
41:52sake of saving space if I used a
41:54fivepoint stop loss I would have had had
41:56four losers losing 20 points but with a
41:59Max profit approximately 40 points lower
42:02than whatever this added up to which I
42:07190 okay so can we conclude that if the
42:10first candle is negative it makes sense
42:12to buy at the low of the first candle
42:14well based on this relatively small
42:15sample sample yes it does but now we
42:19want going to dive into the last four
42:21years so I know I could have asked my
42:24programmer to go and do this for how
42:26many am I doing for time by the way uh
42:2815 minutes 15 minutes brilliant I could
42:30have asked my programmer to put my
42:33thoughts through a rigorous automating
42:35tast tast testing process and probably
42:37would have saved me hundreds of hours
42:41however the reason why I do this
42:43manually is because the devil is in the
42:46detail and an old school teacher taught
42:48me that from here from he's actually
42:50present today the devil is in the eail
42:53and the proof is in the eating of of the
42:56pudding in other words by going through
43:00this manually I was able to discover
43:04aspects of trading that I never would
43:07have dreamed of that a programmer would
43:09find for me so what did I find okay out
43:14of 1,049 charts I found 523 charts that
43:19had a positive candle I simply dismissed
43:21them for research of another day not
43:26that left me with and by the way that's
43:3050% of all outcomes so there was
43:33523 um candles with a positive candle
43:39526 that had a negative first candle and
43:42I went through every single one of them
43:48them as I said if the opening candle is
43:51negative I'll deploy one of two
43:52strategies I'll buy at the low of the f-
43:55minute candle and if a subsequent candle
43:57offer me a price that's better I'll take
44:00it so I will try and buy down here if
44:04the low was 7386 I'm going to try and
44:11better now there's an important Point
44:13here I will gauge this to be a
44:18success if I'm able to move my stop loss
44:22up for whatever stop loss that I've
44:24decided be it five points or 10 points
44:28points I will move my stop- loss up the
44:31moment that the foot has moved Five
44:36favor and I judge that to be a
44:40success so out of the 1049 charts
44:44526 had at its first candle over the
44:53them if I used and we are getting to the
44:57real hardcore Now ladies and
45:00gentlemen if I had used a 20o stop
45:03loss I would have a success rate of
45:0964.6% and I would have had
45:1535% now what I've done is I've gone
45:18through every single chart with a
45:19profitable outcome and I made a note of
45:22how much the footy went against you if I
45:25bought the low or shorted the high so
45:30out of those 340 charts that respected
45:33the 20 point loss the stop loss I
45:36actually wanted to find
45:38out do I want to spend 20 point stop
45:42foot do I really want to risk 20 points
45:46time how about I optimize it and the
45:50only way that I could do that was to go
45:52through every single one of these 340
45:54charts and that's what what I'd like to
45:58now for each of the 340 charts with a
46:01profitable outcome I manually looked at
46:03how much the trade moved against me and
46:05how much I could have made with perfect
46:09hindsight I created a spreadsheet and
46:11that's what you're seeing here here we
46:14go uh I would like to just credit uh
46:17Andy uh who sat down here he actually
46:20helped me with this chart this is the
46:28much these trades went against me and
46:31this is the profit potential that they
46:33offered me if it's a little clear
46:35unclear and I don't think this is so
46:37clear so I think I'm going to uh move to
46:40the next slide I want to break it down
46:44different out of those 340 charts but
46:48again now out of a sample space out of a
46:53because I don't know whether it's it's
46:55going to be one of those trade that
47:22points it means that
47:28526 out of 520 out of 526 trades I would
47:35out on 526 minus 146 whatever that is
47:47times or three times out of four doesn't
47:52sound very appealing does
47:57but this is not an amateur seminar where
48:01some YouTube phenomenon is standing on
48:04the stage trying to sell you a strategy
48:07with a 90% success rate no hell 100%
48:10success rate you're never wrong this is
48:14how a professional Trader navigates risk
48:18with the actual data laid out in front
48:21of him or her I will have a certain
48:26740 points lost over 4 and 1/2 years but
48:30I have a potential of
48:36points if you then increase the stop
48:39loss to six points well obviously you're
48:42going to lose more when you lose so now
48:46you're going to lose
48:481944 for certain but you have a
48:545,100 and and if you use 10o stop loss
48:58you'll lose more when you lose you'll
48:59lose 2,400 over 4 years but you have a
49:087,200 I won't go through the rest but as
49:11you can see they Center very beautifully
49:14around a Max profit potential of about
49:1725 points so if you're puzzled why all
49:22of a sudden I add to my foottit trades
49:25like a Maniac in my telegram Channel it
49:27is because I know statistically we
49:31should get a 25 28o Runner and if I have
49:35bought the footsy with a six or eight
49:38point stop loss and I am now into the
49:42point where I'm breaking even and I add
49:46Points well all of a sudden that if I
49:50get a 25o runner well I'm going to get
49:5325 points profit on one I'm going to get
49:5620 points profit on the second that's 45
49:59I'm going to get 15 points on the third
50:02that's 60 and if I'm able to move my
50:04stop loss by the time that you get to 25
50:07points you have actually clocked up
50:10three times as much in open profit it
50:12won't take many of those days to
50:16actually make a market difference in
50:20your trading performance by adding to
50:22your winning trades but do it with some
50:25statistical finesse actually knowing
50:29what lies behind the number if you just
50:32had a 340 out of the 526 you're going to
50:36get a 64% hit rate 64% is not bad is it
50:42I mean you know if I was talking to some
50:4520year old that is used to YouTube
50:47videos he's 64% he probably going that's
50:50not very good there's a guy down the
50:51road he does 95% you but that's not the
50:55company now I'm in here is it we we are
50:58not those people we're professionals and
51:01we know how to deal with Statistics if
51:03the statistics is presented to us so how
51:06do you feel about having what's
51:08basically a 2:1 ratio you will lose
51:123,720 footy points over a year but you
51:15will have a potential of
51:23here how much would you have to make on
51:25the 202 winnings if you had a Sixpoint
51:28stop loss well on average you would have
51:31to make nine points to
51:35counteract the ravages of the
51:39losses all of this is available in the
51:42manual that is being given to you so say
51:45we had a strategy that we always bought
51:47the foot as close to the first candle
51:50low as with a negative candle as
51:52possible what would that look like from
51:54A Loss making point of view well there's
51:59trades there's 340 winners and 186
52:03losers in order to break even on this
52:06strategy we need to make 10 points so
52:08you'll have a 20 point stop loss you
52:10need to make 10.9 call it 11 points on
52:14average but what is the potential
52:17usually well actually on average you're
52:26how am I doing for time Steve is it
52:27getting close to your
52:41so I then it's it's getting heavy I know
52:44it's getting heavy I also discovered
52:46something which I thought worth
52:48mentioning can we agree that when you
52:52candle we actually anticipate the market
52:55to follow through we anticipate that the
52:57low to be broken of that 5minute candle
53:01unless of course it's one of those
53:02negative candle that just closes like a
53:04a hammer I counted 32 times out of the
53:11chars when the second third or fourth
53:14candle broke above the high of the first
53:16candle and there was none of those 32
53:19times when the foottit didn't go above
53:21by enough to move the stop loss to break
53:23even in other words ladies
53:25gentlemen we really have to think very
53:28carefully about whether we want to short
53:30at the high of a negative candle if the
53:34first candle is negative we have to
53:36think very carefully I'll get to that in
53:44second if I flip this argument on his
53:47head what happens if I sell short at the
53:50high of the first candle as I said I
53:52went through 364 charge manually and I
53:55was right to think that the odds of
53:57breaking through the low was much more
53:59likely than breaking through the high
54:01first I calculated only 80 instances out
54:06364 when the foot broke through the high
54:09first and 284 cases where the foot broke
54:13through the low first this is the P
54:15percentage allocation I then looked at
54:18how much the market would move against
54:19me if I shorted the highs this is what I
54:2567 times out of 80 the market moved
54:28Against Me by less than 10
54:32points in other words if you have a
54:35negative candle as the first candle of
54:37the morning in the footsie and it's one
54:41of those mornings where the footsie then
54:43actually goes above the high first in
54:4767 sorry 83% of the cases the foot will
54:51only move against you by less than 10
54:55points and 59 out of the 80 trades moved
54:58Against Me by less than seven
55:00points and 46 out of 80 it moved Against
55:04Me by less than five points it's heavy
55:07statistics I know I know I could have
55:09come here and I could have done many
55:11other things but I wanted to give you
55:13something that was of real lasting value
55:17and if you can sit through a two hour
55:19lecture with me throwing statistics at
55:21you you can do this in trading as well
55:24the this is what it looks like
55:26graphically again thank you to you Andy
55:28for producing this but this leads me to
55:32conundrum do I buy the low of the first
55:35candle which produces High setups like
55:40this isn't that just a beautiful one
55:43isn't it just beautiful to be a buyer
55:45down there and then you ride that yeah
55:49see now you come to life because now
55:52visual no I I don't I get it I
55:55absolutely get it it's also part and
55:57parcel of the of the of the person up
56:00here on the stage to try and make it
56:01entertaining but there's only so much
56:04you can do with Statistics I mean I can
56:06stand here like a parrot or a clown and
56:08trying to make an tting but I actually
56:10really want to get to is this is going
56:12to happen 125 days out of a trading year
56:17wouldn't it be absolutely amazing that
56:19you knew exactly what you were dealing
56:21with and the odds of success because it
56:24doesn't take any of these days to make
56:26an absolute killer difference on your
56:29account this is the kind of day where
56:32you're hoping that you buy down here and
56:35you have the good sense of just putting
56:37a stop loss at breaking even and then
56:39the market is just allowed to run why
56:42well because you know that there's a
56:43statistical chart you're going to get at
56:45least 25 points and then maybe when you
56:48get to 25 points you're thinking I'm
56:50just going to leave that running I'm
56:52actually going to do myself a favor and
56:53I'm going to go and play around of golf
56:55and then let's just see where we are in
56:57an hour's time I'll put my stop loss at
57:00so I get at least 10 whatever it may
57:04be or something like
57:08this where we're buying right here and
57:11there's very quick 20
57:13points or something like this where the
57:17market just goes and goes and goes and
57:20goes what because you risked 10 points
57:23here and you are rewarded with well
57:26whatever the market will offer you and
57:29sometimes it's less so is these are the
57:32are this what I'm going to go for
57:35or do I play for this trying to sell
57:38short the break below the first negative
57:41bar and get results like this you see
57:43this is the flip side and you might be
57:44thinking oh u f u c k e r why are you
57:47doing that to me well because that's
57:50what we need to be able to deal with we
57:53need to be able to know when the market
57:58this it reverses or when it's doing
58:04this and that is what I've attempted to
58:08answer in the PowerPoint presentation or
58:12PDF file because right here if you
58:17here you would obviously have a loser
58:19you would have a losing trade but
58:22wouldn't it be nice to have that kind of
58:25knowledge of how often this happens and
58:28then at some point you'll be able to
58:30join this trend and if you're looking
58:33for something like this I have something
58:40so I'm just going to skip through these
58:43a little bit because how long have I got
58:45Steve you got as long as you like
58:55okay would you mind if I just finish
59:03okay I'm going to free flow for a second
59:06okay you know what I mean by free flow
59:09notes so I am doing all this research
59:13and Lord knows it's funny to say Lord
59:15knows because I'm not actually believer
59:16but hey Forgive Me Maybe I am I refer to
59:20him often in off he must be thinking I
59:22have doubts about whether you really are
59:24an ath this or not you talk to me talk
59:26about me so often Lord knows I spent
59:29many hours on this are you
59:33me and you know when you you have a bit
59:36of an epiphany in life me there was an
59:38epiphany being in a hotel conference
59:40room with David Paul in 2007 and he said
59:43to me add to your winning trades you
59:44know and like like a good boy I added to
59:46my trades and it really made a
59:47difference in my financial life well as
59:49I was sitting going through the the
59:51footsie something occurred to me and
59:54this is about half a year ago and
59:56thinking hm surely that was a
59:58coincidence I realized sorry I
01:00:01discovered that the eighth bar and the
01:00:0313th bar in the foot seem to hold some
01:00:06rather valuable properties along the
01:00:08lines of school run and I'd like to show
01:00:10you so you you don't think I'm just
01:00:12fipping here I went through every single
01:00:16one of the 526 samples and I re
01:00:19investigated how often is the eighth
01:00:25if I bracket the eighth candle like I
01:00:27did with a school run bar how often will
01:00:30I make money if I bought above the high
01:00:32or I shorted below the low and the same
01:00:35with the 13th candle and I'd like to
01:00:37just show you uh what I
01:00:40found uh so here's
01:00:44the there's the the eighth candle if you
01:00:47bought above there then you would have
01:00:49nothing but fresh air above I'm sure
01:00:51it'd be very happy and if you if you
01:00:54follow the 13th well you wouldn't do too
01:00:57badly I judge a strategy success rate on
01:01:01something like this on how am I able to
01:01:03move my stop loss up for break even and
01:01:05just leave it if I get stopped out well
01:01:07I don't lose anything but what I would
01:01:09really like to do is I'd love to show
01:01:11you there again there the the the eighth
01:01:15bar it means I'm short
01:01:18here and here's the 13th bar well it
01:01:21means I'll be going long here but what I
01:01:23would like to show you
01:01:25is I would really like to show you the
01:01:27last 22 trading days in the foot because
01:01:29now it's not dependent on whether the
01:01:32the footsie is positive or negative just
01:01:35humor me for a second as I go through
01:01:37the last 22 trading days of the footsy
01:01:41index and before you ask I Tred to make
01:01:44this ingenious little thing work in the
01:01:45Dax absolutely doesn't work and I don't
01:01:48understand why it works but what I'm
01:01:51about to show you is the last
01:01:56month in the footsie index where I
01:01:58bracket the eighth and the 13th bar and
01:02:02I ask you do you think you could have
01:02:03made money from that are you ready and
01:02:06then we'll give the stage to Steve
01:02:10W I would have made money from that
01:02:12because I'll have a stop loss up here I
01:02:14would have made money from
01:02:19that I would have been a buyer here I
01:02:22definitely was able to move my stop loss
01:02:23up I would have been a buyer here oh Bit
01:02:32happy would I been able to make money
01:02:35from bracketing the eighth bar on this
01:03:07trade decent trade I've been long there
01:03:10Bit Of Heartache Happy
01:03:13Days what I like about the way I present
01:03:17is that I don't handpick I take a full
01:03:20month and I'll show you everything good
01:03:26these might not be enormous winners but
01:03:30they are enough to make your points
01:03:35day here's one that lost so here it wins
01:03:38do you see this one here do you see
01:03:41how I would short
01:03:43here and the market will certainly stop
01:03:52one this works this
01:03:57works this one doesn't work do you see
01:04:00how it will take me long
01:04:02here and then stop me out
01:04:05here but this one
01:04:11works because I can move my stop loss up
01:04:15even I may not make money on it but I
01:04:18will get stopped for
01:04:19nothing this one will give me some
01:04:22heartache and then it will make me
01:04:26this one will make me this one here I
01:04:30may actually have some some money
01:04:31management to do here but down here I am
01:04:34able to move the stop loss because it
01:04:36moved five points with
01:04:39me this one here I'll have 20 minutes of
01:04:43hell and then I'll
01:04:45have about 13 points in
01:04:49profit this one here is very iffy but it
01:04:53just about works and this one here was a
01:04:55beautiful call I traded this yesterday
01:04:58afternoon sorry yesterday
01:05:00morning why it works I don't know even
01:05:03this one here it may not look like a lot
01:05:06but it's enough by five points to move
01:05:08the stop loss and then I would certainly
01:05:09get stopped out for nothing the same
01:05:17here not a lot in it here but enough for
01:05:19me to move my stop loss and then what
01:05:22I'm constantly hoping for ladies
01:05:23gentlemen is to get Runners always
01:05:25hoping to get Runners move my stop loss
01:06:04bar why the 13th bar in my opinion
01:06:08because the 13th bar is 1 hour into
01:06:10trading and I believe that that could be
01:06:12the reason why they trade from 8 to 9
01:06:14and then once maybe business is done by
01:06:179:00 and maybe all of a sudden it will
01:06:19present opportunity I'll do these very
01:06:21quickly and then we'll give Steve Ward
01:06:26this one oh this one wasn't very good
01:06:31get you don't get short here if you use
01:06:34a Point offset and then you have a
01:06:38here beautiful trade beautiful trade a
01:06:43loser a beautiful
01:06:48trade beautiful trade a
01:06:51loser an absolute stonker of a trade
01:06:54trade offering approximately 30 points
01:06:57scene okay um that was the first part of
01:07:03my Foie research I will now give the
01:07:06stage to Steve Ward Steve do you have a
01:07:09PowerPoint or do you want to take your
01:07:12okay are you still awake oh bless you
01:07:20oh do do you remember do you remember I
01:07:24said this was either the best idea ever
01:07:26or the worst see I just felt like oh my
01:07:28God this is heavy and I realize it's
01:07:30heavy but at the end of the day what I'm
01:07:32hoping is that you're going to walk away
01:07:34from here and going actually this has
01:07:40forward okay so some of you may know me
01:07:42some probably won't I'm not as famous as
01:07:46Tom um most of my work actually
01:07:49intentionally has to be behind well I
01:07:51guess under the radar uh um a lot of my
01:07:55clients I've probably signed more ndas
01:07:57in the last 18 years than any other
01:07:59document in my life but my clients
01:08:01typically are um world's largest hedge
01:08:04funds investment Banks Commodities
01:08:06trading houses many Traders you if you
01:08:10read the financial press you'll know of
01:08:11many you won't know of many the best
01:08:13Traders don't like to be in the Press if
01:08:16they ask J they've done something wrong
01:08:18which is not good news um and what I try
01:08:23and do for my clients is help them to
01:08:27essentially make better
01:08:28decisions and to navigate the challenges
01:08:32of trading the markets the highs and the
01:08:36lows I've been doing that for 18 and a
01:08:39half years uh working with Traders all
01:08:42over the world all different asset
01:08:44classes um 95% of the
01:08:50you is uh institutional and then
01:08:54obviously got some good friends and
01:08:55colleagues like Tom where I like to come
01:08:57and if I get invited um to come and get
01:09:00my little Slaughter maybe share some um
01:09:03advice and guidance the one thing I
01:09:06always say when I'm working with anybody
01:09:08is there's no seven steps there's no
01:09:11five steps there's no three magic
01:09:13qualities um that sells books it gets
01:09:17people on courses but it doesn't make
01:09:19anybody better at what they do and the
01:09:21reason for that is because nobody in
01:09:23this room is like anybody else in this
01:09:27room I say that I was looking around for
01:09:29some twins but that's that's my Norm
01:09:31that's the normal sticking point I
01:09:32hadn't seen any earlier so um but even
01:09:35they are not identical even when they
01:09:37are identical so we have to recognize
01:09:43becoming a successful Trader is shaping
01:09:48your own process you've got to find out
01:09:50how to make it work for you it won't be
01:09:52the same as for everybody else
01:09:54and that's probably the most important
01:09:57um piece of guidance I can give anybody
01:09:59is you start like everyone else does you
01:10:03go on some courses sorry no problem no
01:10:13fine and then over time you've got to
01:10:16work it out for yourself but the key
01:10:18thing in working out for yourself is
01:10:21work you've got to do the work there's
01:10:25no one I work with who's good at what
01:10:27they do and by good I would say we're
01:10:29talking about people that are world
01:10:31class who hasn't put in a large amount
01:10:38analysis doing the work at the screens
01:10:41time at the screens and also working on
01:10:47themselves what I want to try and share
01:10:49today is just a few ideas also some
01:10:52techniques that I use utilize with my
01:10:54clients to help them really I guess to
01:10:56do what Tom's been trying to say is to
01:10:59close the gap between knowing and
01:11:01understanding what to do in any given
01:11:03moment and then being able to actually
01:11:05do that in some form so we might call
01:11:09consistency so it's interesting for you
01:11:12to think about how consistent you might
01:11:14actually be with your own
01:11:16trading so when you see opportunity set
01:11:19up that you should be taking how many of
01:11:21them roughly do you take if you should
01:11:22be taking them in a certain amount of
01:11:24risk on those trades how often do you
01:11:25take the actual risk that your strategy
01:11:28suggest you should be taking exits do
01:11:30you get out when you should be getting
01:11:32out if you should be adding to your
01:11:33winners are you adding to your winners
01:11:36are you able to stay out of the market
01:11:37when you shouldn't be in the market
01:11:40consistency in action is action
01:11:43everything is action everything is
01:11:47behavior the thing also about
01:11:49consistency is we have to be careful
01:11:52with any of these ideas that we don't
01:11:54get too attached to
01:11:57it because the Paradox is you need to be
01:12:03consistent because the market is made up
01:12:06as is life of many moments some which
01:12:08are familiar and similar but very few
01:12:13identical and so part of what I'm going
01:12:14to talk about today and it ties in with
01:12:16what Tom's been talking
01:12:18about Tom calls it situational and in
01:12:21Psychology we call it context
01:12:24which is the situation a person is in to
01:12:27understand Behavior we've got to
01:12:29understand the situation the person was
01:12:30in when they were doing the
01:12:32behavior and we can only judge a
01:12:35behavior and in in my brand of
01:12:38psychology we don't talk about right
01:12:40wrong good bad we talk about is it
01:12:43helpful and if you think about in
01:12:45trading for example a very simple
01:12:46example if you have a trending Market
01:12:50Market it's quite likely the behaviors
01:12:52that we engage Eng in might look quite
01:12:54different because the context of the
01:12:58different and there can be different
01:13:01Trends and we might have different
01:13:03behaviors so some flexibility is quite
01:13:05important understanding the situation
01:13:08the context and what's required in that
01:13:11context and what the best Traders I work
01:13:14with are very good at is what we call
01:13:17sensitivity or Market regime sensitivity
01:13:21they understand the nuances of what's
01:13:22going on in the market maret and how to
01:13:25adapt their behavior to maximize the
01:13:28opportunities in that context or
01:13:30sometimes to stay out of the markets
01:13:33because they know it's not their
01:13:35particular regime where they've got
01:13:41so when we think about how consistent we
01:13:43are consistency is a nice word it's what
01:13:46we call a mid-level term we all kind of
01:13:48understand what it means but consistency
01:13:51is going to be different over the course
01:13:53course of a year if we just did exactly
01:13:55the same thing all of the time what we
01:13:58would call rigidity we probably wouldn't
01:14:00maximize our market
01:14:03returns because not every behavior is
01:14:05going to work in every set of
01:14:08conditions and we might choose to be
01:14:10rigid knowing that overtime we win more
01:14:13than we lose and when we win we win more
01:14:16than we lose when we lose so we have a
01:14:18positive expectancy so we may make that
01:14:20choice but we might also want to have a
01:14:22bit of flexibility recognized in
01:14:24different contexts and flexing and
01:14:26adapting to those different
01:14:27context now all of us who have
01:14:31traded will realize that often if we
01:14:34look back and analyze our performance we
01:14:37might get a gap between what our system
01:14:40might suggest we could return from the
01:14:42market and what we actually do return
01:14:46and the reason for that Gap is normally
01:14:50Behavior what we did in those moments
01:14:54okay so all of you will have a
01:14:55behavioral Gap so it's interesting to
01:14:57think about you know how big that Gap
01:14:59might be for each of
01:15:01you for some Traders it might be quite
01:15:03narrow for some it can be very wide and
01:15:07also we can start to think about and
01:15:09what specific behaviors might it be that
01:15:14Gap are there particular behaviors that
01:15:17I know I engage in which are reducing my
01:15:20returns from the market so that's where
01:15:22we're going to kind of start with and
01:15:24then we can think about okay how would
01:15:25it be if I was more consistent if I was
01:15:28able to do that behavior on a more
01:15:30consistent basis what would the outcome
01:15:33be in my um returns and of course then
01:15:37what do I need to do about it how can I
01:15:39start to change this Behavior okay now
01:15:42when I'm working with clients we're
01:15:45often talking about trying to bridge the
01:15:47gap all of my clients like all of you
01:15:48want to maximize market returns
01:15:51fundamentally that's a goal whether it's
01:15:54in p&l terms or in other terms now there
01:15:57are four building blocks we can think
01:15:59about in terms of where this Gap might
01:16:00be coming from the first one we have to
01:16:02think about is process because some
01:16:05people's behavioral Gap is down to the
01:16:07fact they don't have a clearly defined
01:16:13process for some people the behavioral
01:16:15Gap is also process related they don't
01:16:17have any confidence in their process
01:16:20know if from moment to moment and or
01:16:23over time that strategy has any kind of
01:16:27expectancy they're diving off a diving
01:16:30board into a pool they don't know how
01:16:37is for other people and this links into
01:16:39the second point they may have a
01:16:42strategy that's clear it may have some
01:16:44positive expectancy but it may not suit
01:16:50person so the strategy itself may work
01:16:53for some people and it may be able to be
01:16:55clearly defined but not all strategies
01:17:00people and if you have to trade out of
01:17:04personality that is difficult to sustain
01:17:07over time and it's definitely difficult
01:17:08to do when there's stress and pressure
01:17:11and we tend to revert back to
01:17:14type so we want to make sure we've got a
01:17:16process we understand the process we
01:17:18want confidence we want Clarity and then
01:17:19we want what we call congruence we
01:17:21ideally want that that um to be related
01:17:24to who we are as people some people are
01:17:26very risk-seeking by Nature they love
01:17:29novelty they love discomfort they want
01:17:31to get in get involved the bigger the
01:17:33better and for other people they're the
01:17:36exact opposite they're very risk and
01:17:40sensitive they're cautious they're
01:17:42careful and I've got Traders world-class
01:17:44traders who fit both of those
01:17:48categories and when I look at their
01:17:50trading Styles and how they make the
01:17:52money they make it is very
01:17:54different both make exceptional sums of
01:17:57money in different ways in different
01:18:00markets that suit them and that's part
01:18:03of the working out how you become
01:18:04successful you've got to do it your
01:18:08way then we get to this kind of the
01:18:10underlay I noticed and I was interested
01:18:13to hear Tom talking about his you know
01:18:14the sleep and diet um I've done lots of
01:18:18research with my clients around the
01:18:19physiology the role of the body in Risk
01:18:22Tak and decision- making and it is um
01:18:24very highly correlated but we need to
01:18:27consider things like you know our level
01:18:29of fatigue if you're fatigued you will
01:18:30make different decisions to when you're
01:18:32not fatigued we all know that I've got
01:18:35hundreds of bits of data to show it in
01:18:37trading scenarios if you are highly
01:18:40stressed it will affect how you perceive
01:18:43risk how you make decisions and the
01:18:46get and your physiology will underpin
01:18:50psychology people who are sleep deprived
01:18:53are significantly more emotionally
01:18:55reactive than those who have slept
01:19:01well so we have to think about the
01:19:03physiology in in performance we have a
01:19:05phrase called bio Psycho Social when we
01:19:10think about what drives performance bio
01:19:15biological psycho psychological and then
01:19:18social I often like for my clients we be
01:19:20working in a trading team in an
01:19:22organization what are the environmental
01:19:26influences and then we've got the
01:19:28psychological piece so maybe we've got a
01:19:30process maybe allign to our personality
01:19:32maybe we're looking after our physiology
01:19:35we also need to think about the
01:19:36psychology thoughts emotions where we're
01:19:39focused so cognition emotion and all of
01:19:41these processes and the part they're
01:19:42playing in this Gap so it's useful for
01:19:45you to be thinking about as a framework
01:19:50gap where is the gap coming from from
01:19:53because I've sometimes had people come
01:19:55to me claiming some psychological
01:19:57Challenge and when we go back and we
01:20:00look at actually what's going on it's a
01:20:05challenge if you don't believe in your
01:20:08process if You' got no confidence in it
01:20:09if it's not aligned to your personality
01:20:11you can get lots of anxiety and stress
01:20:13and frustration and Ill discipline but
01:20:16it's not a psychology issue it's a
01:20:19psychological reaction to poor
01:20:23yeah so you can use this as just a bit
01:20:25of a self assessment assess the level of
01:20:28your process you can think about does it
01:20:30think about in life in general how do
01:20:33decisions I've got a he was a head of
01:20:37risk at a big hedge fund I can say a
01:20:38little bit but not too much but we were
01:20:40doing some risk profiling and he came
01:20:42out as adventurous in our kind of
01:20:45categorization which is quite
01:20:46interesting for the head head of risk in
01:20:48a hedge fund um but I I often say to
01:20:52people you know tell me about how you
01:20:54holiday think about how you like to plan
01:20:57holidays here's what he does he say I
01:20:58pick an interesting country I've never
01:20:59been to before I pick an interesting
01:21:02City that I can fly to in that country I
01:21:05book a flight and I book one night's
01:21:07accommodation in the city that I'm going
01:21:08to arrive in and then it unfolds from
01:21:13there that isn't how I plan my
01:21:18holidays I like to do plenty of
01:21:21research take time plan consider look
01:21:26prices that's a much more thoughtful
01:21:30process I don't want the risk of being
01:21:33in a bad hotel or being in an unsafe
01:21:36City or not knowing I'm going to be
01:21:37sleeping on day two that's uncomfortable
01:21:40for me for him that's what it's all
01:21:44about the thought of spending months
01:21:49holiday with minimal risk or excitement
01:21:53would be the worst thing for him so we
01:21:55can think about in our lives how would
01:21:57we like to make decisions is an insight
01:21:58into our risk personality does that
01:22:00align with how you're trying to
01:22:03trade so we can do a bit of research we
01:22:08physiological how are you managing sleep
01:22:11are you rested as rested as can be
01:22:14trade eating hydration Etc but today
01:22:18we're going to focus particularly on the
01:22:20psychology piece because that's what's
01:22:21Tom's ask me to do but I am always
01:22:24thinking about these four parts cuz when
01:22:26people are making decisions and they're
01:22:28taking risk in the markets it's these
01:22:31four things into playing
01:22:33together yeah we can't always assume
01:22:36it's one or the other we need to kind of
01:22:37have that the four pieces in our mind so
01:22:40what we do today is we'll focus on the
01:22:43psychology all of you that have traded
01:22:45and traded live I think that's probably
01:22:46most of you know it's pretty challenging
01:22:48trading live it's not easy and this is a
01:22:51a piece this is I'm I'm going to read it
01:22:52might not be clear to everybody in the
01:22:54room but this came from uh a podcast
01:22:57interview with Will England he's the CEO
01:22:59and CIO of Walley Capital so he said the
01:23:02job of being a PM portfolio manager
01:23:05whether you're quantitive or fundamental
01:23:07is psychologically extremely toxic
01:23:11because you're going to be wrong
01:23:12basically just as much as you're going
01:23:13to be right you're going to get kicked
01:23:16in the face a lot and you're going to be
01:23:18someone who's the smartest person that
01:23:19they've known their entire life and then
01:23:22they're going to just get beat up all
01:23:25time now I'll pause there and I just
01:23:27this graph on the left hand side is some
01:23:29data of high performing fund managers
01:23:32collected by a company called Essentia
01:23:33analytics they collect data from a large
01:23:36number of of funds they analyze
01:23:38portfolio manager detail and what it
01:23:41basically shows us if you go across
01:23:42horizontally we've got hit rate so how
01:23:45often is the person right and then we've
01:23:46got payoff ratio so how much do you make
01:23:49when you are right versus how much you
01:23:51lose when you're wrong going vertically
01:23:53the most interesting thing obviously
01:23:55straight away is the fact if we look at
01:23:57it there is a very tight
01:24:00grouping and that range of hit rate in
01:24:03this data is between 45 and
01:24:0655% so the best performing worldclass
01:24:10fund manager in this group is right
01:24:15time and other people in this group also
01:24:17world class are only right 45% of the
01:24:21time but obviously we can see that some
01:24:24the big outperformers make a lot of
01:24:27money when they're right and minimize
01:24:30losses when they're wrong it's what Tom
01:24:33was alluding to earlier and that's the
01:24:35skill that we have to kind of work on
01:24:39but becoming a top performing portfolio
01:24:42manager and then he goes on to say takes
01:24:45a certain psychological profile and that
01:24:48requires training and I just don't think
01:24:51many human are wired that
01:24:56way and just goes back and I think Tom
01:24:58uses a phrase in in his book um about
01:25:01thinking differently I think Mark
01:25:03Douglas one of the first people probably
01:25:04to kind of bring that phrase about the
01:25:05best Traders thinking differently to the
01:25:09rest lots of our human instincts our
01:25:11biological responses are not the ones
01:25:14that are conducive to making money in
01:25:16the long-term in financial markets so
01:25:18we've got to be doing the work on our
01:25:20strategies we've got to do the work on
01:25:22our skills and we've got to do the work
01:25:25ourself yeah the good news is we can
01:25:28rewire so if we're not wired correctly
01:25:31we can rewire one of my favorite
01:25:34examples of this is so what he's really
01:25:35saying here is psychologically trading
01:25:38is tough most of us probably go yeah
01:25:40that's probably true but actually then
01:25:42if we go to Navy Seals we go okay
01:25:44actually Navy SEAL selection is also
01:25:48tough and what Navy Seals selects for
01:25:51initially particularly is
01:25:54Fitness a large part of selection is
01:25:57about how physically fit you are a large
01:26:00part of trading might be about process
01:26:02but to get to the end of selection what
01:26:04they realized was and this is true in
01:26:06all Special Operations it's not just
01:26:09physical and a large proportion of it is
01:26:14mental and in trading we may think it's
01:26:17all about having a great process but
01:26:19it's not it's also largely mental
01:26:23psychological and so when the seals
01:26:25realized that they were losing People
01:26:29based on physical testing but who with
01:26:32different psychological skills might
01:26:34have got through those
01:26:36tests they were faced with a choice
01:26:38either we keep things as they are or we
01:26:40do something different we start teaching
01:26:43Navy Seals psychological
01:26:47skills to enable them to pass the
01:26:49physical tests so we get a higher output
01:26:53of candidate per selection group and
01:26:56that's what they did they identified the
01:26:59skills that were required and then they
01:27:01taught them people learned them and
01:27:02selection rates went higher without any
01:27:05falling quality of
01:27:08candidate and we can use the same thing
01:27:10in trading if we know that it's
01:27:13toxic difficult challenging we can use
01:27:15our own language the question is is it
01:27:18possible to learn the skills
01:27:20required and to rewire and the answer is
01:27:24yes it is if we are willing to do the
01:27:27work to do the rewiring of course and at
01:27:29the last part of my work when I'm
01:27:31working with clients is helping them to
01:27:33understand more about themselves and
01:27:34kind of those four component pieces and
01:27:36where we can improve and optimize but
01:27:38when it gets into the psychology piece
01:27:40often we're trying to identify you know
01:27:41what can we do differently how do we
01:27:42need to think differently or how do we
01:27:44need to respond differently to when
01:27:46you're having those emotions whilst
01:27:48you're trading and I want to kind of
01:27:49share a few thoughts and ideas um around
01:27:51that in our session today so a large
01:27:53part of my work over the last probably
01:27:5610 years um has been helping traders to
01:27:59develop something called psychological
01:28:02flexibility and I picked this
01:28:05particularly I think it overlays really
01:28:07nicely with what Tom's um talking about
01:28:10today so the definition again just I
01:28:11know a few of you might find it hard to
01:28:12read to screen people's ability to focus
01:28:17situation what's happening in the
01:28:19markets as I see them right now
01:28:23and then based upon the opportunities
01:28:25afforded by that situation take
01:28:29action so do the right thing for the
01:28:32situation you are
01:28:34in even in the presence of challenging
01:28:39or unwanted psychological
01:28:43events the reality of trading is quite
01:28:46often you may have to take action even
01:28:50though you're feeling some doubt or
01:28:52you're a bit anxious or you've got a
01:28:55slight sense of a fear of losing on that
01:28:58trade and I was chall to somebody before
01:29:00the session and something I think it's
01:29:02worth sharing is I think a lot of people
01:29:05in their mind and maybe it's how some of
01:29:06the early books were written or maybe
01:29:08it's just popular culture there's almost
01:29:10an expectation even in my institutional
01:29:12clients that at some point in their
01:29:14career they will get to a point where
01:29:17suddenly they're trading without fear
01:29:20there's no anxiety there's no stress
01:29:23there's no worry they're confident all
01:29:25the time it comes naturally and
01:29:28easily and it's almost like there's a
01:29:30hope that there's this point in the
01:29:31future and that will
01:29:32happen and what happens it doesn't
01:29:38happen and some of my clients have been
01:29:40in the markets for 25 30 years
01:29:42plus they still get some fear they still
01:29:45get anxious they still worry they still
01:29:47lack confidence they still find draw
01:29:50painful of course they do because who
01:29:53wouldn't it is painful but what they
01:29:56have learned over the years is how to
01:29:59it so we have to accept this is part of
01:30:02the normal trading experience part of
01:30:05what I would call the trading condition
01:30:06there's ups and downs in life that's a
01:30:08human condition there's ups and downs in
01:30:09trading a lot of them that's a trading
01:30:11condition you can't change it and
01:30:13actually trying to hope it goes away is
01:30:16unhelpful because it isn't going to go
01:30:18away there's a good analogy a guy called
01:30:21John C in who's a mindfulness meditation
01:30:23practitioner has this great metaphor
01:30:25about that um you can't stop the waves
01:30:28but you can learn to serve
01:30:31them and that's exactly how I think
01:30:33about the trading experience you can't
01:30:34stop the emotions you can't turn them
01:30:36off you can't turn off the thoughts it's
01:30:39not how we're wired they come for some
01:30:41people stronger for others weaker for
01:30:43some more often for some less but it
01:30:45happens but you can learn how to manage
01:30:47those thoughts how to manage those
01:30:49emotions how to manage the urges how to
01:30:51manage the memories the images all pop
01:30:53up we can learn to manage that such that
01:30:56it doesn't get in the way of us taking
01:30:58the action we need to take time for a
01:31:01little experiment everyone put your hand
01:31:05air okay I'm going to demonstrate the
01:31:08experiment then you can do it for
01:31:11now are you all good okay so just watch
01:31:16and then you can have a go yourself
01:31:18listen to what I'm saying and watch what
01:31:20I do keep keep your hand up keep your
01:31:22hand up keep your hand up keep your hand
01:31:29go okay watch again keep your hand up
01:31:33keep your hand up keep your hand up keep
01:31:42up I wonder Tom's tired teaching you all
01:31:49okay keep your hand up keep your hand up
01:31:51up keep your hand up keep your hand up
01:31:53there's two things we're doing yeah I'm
01:31:55keeping it simple there's two tasks one
01:31:57is verbal one is physical action one is
01:32:02this and one is this keep your hand up
01:32:04keep your hand up keep your hand up put
01:32:06them both together keep your hand up
01:32:08keep your hand up keep your hand up keep
01:32:09your hand up okay good Next
01:32:16watch keep your hand down keep your hand
01:32:19down keep your hand down keep your hand
01:32:28so here's what's interesting I hear from
01:32:38thought and let's say for example maybe
01:32:40it's I can't afford to take a loss on
01:32:45trade and so I stayed in the
01:32:49trade I had the thought that told me
01:32:52basically I can't take the loss on the
01:32:55trade and that thought made me stay in
01:32:58the trade or I might hear I had a really
01:33:03strong feeling of
01:33:05fomo so I got into the the market even
01:33:09though I knew it wasn't the right time
01:33:10to get in but I felt it and I acted on
01:33:12the feeling I thought it and it made me
01:33:15act in a certain way and this has been a
01:33:18misconception from cognitive psychology
01:33:20where we see diagram such as thought
01:33:22leads to action or feeling action or
01:33:25thought feeling action and we think
01:33:26that's how it is it isn't like that at
01:33:28all because if that was true how could
01:33:30you do this keep my hand up keep my hand
01:33:33up keep my hand up keep my hand
01:33:37up wouldn't be possible but that's
01:33:40opposing action to
01:33:42thought and we need to remember this
01:33:44because just because you're having the
01:33:47that you can't afford to take a loss on
01:33:50a trade it doesn't mean you have to stay
01:33:51in the trade you could have the thought
01:33:54that I can't afford or I don't want to
01:33:56lose on this trade and at the same time
01:33:59you could get out of the
01:34:01trade you can have the feeling of the
01:34:04fear of missing out it doesn't mean you
01:34:06have to jump into the
01:34:08market you can have the feeling with the
01:34:10fear of missing out and stay out of the
01:34:13market providing you've got the
01:34:15psychological skills to be able to do so
01:34:18of course yeah that's what I want to try
01:34:20and give you a bit off today
01:34:22so this is really important it's a key
01:34:24part of my work because I think a lot of
01:34:26trading situations happen where if
01:34:30maximize returns and you want to be
01:34:34consistent for many people it's the
01:34:36thoughts and emotions are showing up
01:34:38that are influencing too strongly the
01:34:41behavior and the thoughts and feelings
01:34:43that show up might be perfectly
01:34:45normal this year has been tough for a
01:34:47lot of my clients early part of the Year
01:34:49particularly first 6 months seven months
01:34:51a lot hedge funds in draw down some some
01:34:53some significant ones choppy markets
01:34:56difficult lots of thoughts lots of
01:34:58doubts lots of worries showing up mind's
01:34:59going crazy but each day you got to
01:35:02still come in and do the right things
01:35:04even though you're in draw down even
01:35:05though it's uncomfortable even though
01:35:07you're doubting yourself you still got
01:35:09to come in and do what you need to do
01:35:13process yeah so consistency of behavior
01:35:16of what the visible behavior is often
01:35:19having to occur even though there might
01:35:21be internal thoughts and feelings that
01:35:24might be trying to sway us away from
01:35:26that yeah so this is where we need our
01:35:34so I want to break it into three core
01:35:36component pieces there it's more nuanced
01:35:39than this but you know Tom has given me
01:35:41an hour which is pretty decent
01:35:43um so here are the three skills we'll
01:35:47talk through them and we'll actually do
01:35:48some of the skills as we go through you
01:35:51may be doing some of these things
01:35:52already if so great you can obviously
01:35:55just use them as a reminder some things
01:35:57may be new some things might be very new
01:36:00um things that you've not never done
01:36:02before or considered and you can always
01:36:03think about going away and trying them
01:36:05out okay so the first component of being
01:36:11flexible is actually
01:36:14commitment so here's a question for you
01:36:17before I explain more I want you to
01:36:19think about the type of Trader that you
01:36:22want to be and I ask this to all of my
01:36:25clients tell me about the type of Trader
01:36:27or the type of portfolio manager or
01:36:30analyst that you want to be or that you
01:36:33be just in your mind think about how are
01:36:37you trying to be think about some of the
01:36:39qualities you might be wanting to
01:36:40demonstrate so for one of my clients
01:36:43phenomenal Trader young guy probably
01:36:45late 20s now when we did this exercise
01:36:48he said okay it's really important for
01:36:49me to be focused okay great focused as a
01:36:54Trader then he said I want to have a
01:36:56word that's kind of learning based in
01:36:58the end he came kind of being sort of he
01:37:00chose Mastery this kind of sense of kind
01:37:02of learning continue to kind continue
01:37:04Improvement keeping going that was
01:37:05another one he chose he said I want to
01:37:09calm said choose whichever ones you want
01:37:13he how do you want to be as a Trader and
01:37:16then he said aggressive in Brackets when
01:37:20needed close brackets contextual not
01:37:24aggressive all the time but when I need
01:37:26to be aggressive be aggressive but
01:37:29that's important how he wants to be okay
01:37:32so that's in his mind we're creting
01:37:34here's how you want to be here's the
01:37:36qualities that you want to
01:37:38bring and then you need to be connected
01:37:40to that either daily or weekly based on
01:37:43your time frames but we need to keep
01:37:45that in mind who am I trying to be what
01:37:46are the qualities I want to demonstrate
01:37:48because when it's difficult when we get
01:37:50to part three when we get down to being
01:37:53uncomfortable for
01:37:56what if we want our mind and body to be
01:37:59uncomfortable the first thing they will
01:38:00ask us in return is
01:38:08the psychological default in the brain
01:38:10around Comfort discomfort is Comfort
01:38:13first discomfort where
01:38:17required so if you don't know why you
01:38:19want to be uncomfortable if you've not
01:38:20got a s of purpose a goal purpose the
01:38:23trader you want to be there's no
01:38:24commitment to anything then there's no
01:38:27purpose then the brain will be resistant
01:38:31uncomfortable so we have to balance at
01:38:33least balance discomfort with some sense
01:38:35of purpose and I say in my model we tend
01:38:38to look at kind of how that Trader wants
01:38:39to be they find it a nice way of
01:38:41thinking about things so think about
01:38:44that for yourself how do you want to be
01:38:47and you might have some themes that are
01:38:49consistent and you might have somewhere
01:38:50you want to be certain ways in certain
01:38:52different conditions aggressive in
01:38:54Brackets where required when needed it's
01:38:56like rooms in a house some rooms we Ed
01:38:58regular some rooms in the house we go to
01:39:01when we need to but less frequently
01:39:03that's how we can think about these
01:39:06qualities now what I want you to do is
01:39:10if you've done that exercise just
01:39:11quickly in your mind you've maybe got a
01:39:13few ideas about how you want to be think
01:39:16about one of those so if I take from my
01:39:19client we might take um his idea let's
01:39:21take the Mastery idea being
