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Tom Hougaard live in London – IX Show

Trader Tom2024-03-05
Tom Hougaard#Trader Tom#TraderTom#Trading Psychology#Traders Mindset#Swing Trading#Scalp Trading#Day Trading#Day Trader#Live Trading#day trading psychology#Tom Hoogard#tom trader#trade mentor#trading mentor#trade education#trading education#cfd trading
82K views|2 months ago
💫 Short Summary

The video features a speaker sharing detailed insights on trading practices, emphasizing situational analysis over technical analysis. Strategies include analyzing candlesticks, letting winners run, and adding to winning trades. The importance of mental resilience, risk management, and self-control in trading is highlighted. The speaker stresses the need for self-awareness, journaling, and adapting to market trends. Personal anecdotes and statistical data support the strategies discussed, aiming to equip viewers with tools for successful trading outcomes. The importance of psychological skills, flexibility, and consistency in trading behavior is underscored, along with the significance of self-discipline and physical well-being for optimal trading performance.

✨ Highlights
📊 Transcript
Presentation on Hardcore Analysis of Footsy Index.
The speaker shared a PowerPoint presentation on his successful trading journey over the last three months.
The presentation included 801 slides detailing mistakes in footy trading and strategies for improvement.
The speaker aims to equip the audience with tools and strategies to enhance their trading skills.
The session was interesting and informative, providing valuable insights for traders.
Importance of situational analysis in trading.
Emphasizes the need for action and aligning knowledge with execution in trading.
Evolution of personal journeys and the discrepancy between knowing and doing in trading.
Deep insights into trading practices, including preparation and the use of situational analysis.
Speaker offers free PowerPoint presentation to aid viewers in their trading endeavors.
Importance of self-care for traders.
Good sleep and nutrition are crucial for traders to perform well.
Personal anecdote about how kombucha affected sleep due to caffeine intake.
Skepticism towards technical analysis in trading, mentioning patterns like higher highs and double tops.
Speaker has become cynical towards traditional trading methods.
Importance of situational analysis in market movements.
Statistical analysis shows 50/50 distribution of winning and losing days in a bull market.
Shift towards situational analysis for a more specific approach to market situations.
Emphasis on understanding context and situation over technical analysis or gut feelings.
Development of 'rule of four' to guide decision-making based on specific market conditions.
Speaker reflects on trading performance, success in the morning but inconsistency later.
Traded well during holiday by sleeping more, trading at specific times, and reducing trades.
Successful streak upon returning to office.
Emphasizes situational analysis and runs free Telegram group for insights and accountability.
Stresses differentiating oneself in trading, references coach Steve Ward's teachings on hedge fund fundamentals.
Importance of self-control and situational approach in trading.
Speaker shares personal experiences of success and failure, emphasizing honesty and accepting losses.
Value of learning from losses and 'best loser wins' concept in trading.
Emphasis on hardcore analysis and reviewing past performance for long-term trading success.
Challenges of trading and the importance of mental strength and strategy execution.
Speaker reflects on past income from trading and calculates points needed for replication.
Doubts arise regarding ability to consistently make two points a day.
Acknowledgment of stage fright but confidence in speaking abilities.
Questioning of actual trading performance results.
Reflection on trading journey emphasizing discipline and risk management.
Importance of consistent profits to meet financial goals, stressing discipline with winners and losers.
Challenges and considerations of leverage trading, including funding and broker options.
Analysis of trading patterns, with a focus on the first candle of the day.
Future discussions on detailed trading strategies and practices.
Creating situational analysis based on the first candle of the day in trading charts.
Better performance observed in trading the Footsie index when the first bar is negative.
Statistical outlier in the last 22 trading days with mostly negative first candles, deviating from the usual distribution.
Analysis led to improved trading performance in the Footsie index over the past four months.
Trading strategies based on analyzing candlesticks and market trends.
Shorting at the high of a negative bar and buying at the low is suggested, challenging conventional breakout theories.
Implementing actions that provide a statistical edge over time is emphasized, using historical data to illustrate different scenarios.
The focus is on making informed decisions based on market movements and potential outcomes.
Traditional trading norms are advised against in favor of a more strategic approach.
Importance of letting winners run in trading.
Different stop loss levels impact potential gains.
10-point stop loss led to a maximum profit of 153 points.
5-point stop loss resulted in a potential profit of around 100 points.
Emphasis on risk management and optimizing winning trades for successful outcomes.
Transitioning from a bearish to a bullish mindset in trading.
Emphasizing the importance of mental flexibility and behavior in adapting to market changes.
Sharing a scenario of potential profit through strategic trading decisions.
Highlighting the significance of situational analysis in trading.
Recounting an interaction showcasing the practical application of trading principles in real-life scenarios.
Intense training in flight simulators and its relation to trading strategies.
Pilots undergo simulation of emergency scenarios like engine failure and terrorist attacks.
Importance of being prepared for unexpected situations in trading.
Statistical data from years of trading shows effectiveness of buying low during market downturns.
Managing winners effectively to maximize profits is crucial in trading.
Trading strategy involving buying at the low of the first candle if it is negative.
Manual analysis of 1,049 charts revealed 50% had positive candles, leading to successful trading outcomes.
Emphasis on detailed manual analysis over automated processes for uncovering trading insights.
Strategy involves moving stop loss up by five points once trade moves in favor.
Benefits of hands-on analysis for successful trading outcomes highlighted.
Importance of Professional Risk Management in Trading.
Speaker analyzed 340 charts to optimize a 20 point stop loss strategy, emphasizing the significance of tracking profitable outcomes and potential losses.
Experience of potential points lost and gained over 4.5 years was shared, highlighting the impact of adjusting stop loss levels on potential losses and gains.
Encouragement was given to approach trading with a realistic mindset and utilize data-driven strategies for risk management.
Trading strategy involving adding to winning trades.
Emphasizes statistical analysis and risk management.
Potential for profit by increasing position size as trades move in desired direction.
Strategy involves 2:1 ratio of potential losses to gains.
Manual reference for further details on strategy and hypothetical scenario presented.
Importance of Negative Candles in Trading
Careful analysis is crucial before shorting at the high of a negative candle.
Manual analysis of 364 charts shows the market often moves against short positions by less than 10 points.
Thorough consideration of trading strategies is encouraged for making informed decisions.
In-depth analysis is highlighted as valuable for successful trading.
Importance of understanding market trends and utilizing statistical data in trading.
Knowledge of trading patterns helps make informed decisions and potentially avoid losses.
Significance of recognizing market reversals and joining profitable trends.
Uncovering specific strategies for successful trading.
Benefits of utilizing statistical analysis in trading to improve decision-making and maximize trading opportunities.
Trading strategies focusing on the 8th and 13th candle bars in trading patterns.
Importance of adding to winning trades and insights on moving stop losses for break even scenarios.
Analysis of the last 22 trading days of the Footsie index, showcasing a strategy independent of market trends.
Limitations in other markets like Dax highlighted, with findings presented for consideration.
Trading strategy involving bracketing bars and moving stop losses.
Emphasis on showing both winning and losing trades for a realistic view.
Strategy focuses on making small profits consistently instead of aiming for large wins.
Importance of the 13th bar in trading, marking an hour into trading and potential market behavior shift.
Importance of confidentiality in the financial industry.
Speaker's experience working with hedge funds, investment banks, and trading houses.
Role in assisting clients with decision-making and trading challenges.
Emphasis on individual uniqueness and the lack of a universal approach to trading success.
The need for personalized guidance and advice for individual traders.
Key highlights for successful trading.
Successful traders create their own process and find what works best for them.
Consistency is crucial, with traders putting in significant work and analysis.
Understanding the context and situation is important for analyzing behavior in trading.
Flexibly consistent approaches are needed due to the ever-changing nature of markets and life.
Importance of context and flexibility in trading behavior.
Traders must adapt to various market conditions and know when to avoid trading.
Consistency is crucial, but being too rigid may not always be beneficial.
Traders should assess their behaviors to pinpoint discrepancies between expected and actual returns.
Introduction of the 'behavioral gap' concept emphasizing the importance of identifying and addressing behaviors that could impede trading success.
Importance of clear process and strategy in trading.
Need for confidence, clarity, and congruence in approach.
Different trading styles suit different personalities (risk-seeking vs. risk-averse).
Success in trading linked to finding a style that aligns with personality.
Role of physiology in risk-taking and decision-making, including factors like sleep and diet.
Importance of Factors in Decision-Making and Performance.
Consideration of factors such as fatigue, stress, and sleep deprivation is crucial in understanding performance drivers.
Alignment of process, personality, and confidence can help reduce anxiety and stress.
Differentiation between psychological issues and reactions to poor processes is essential.
Self-assessment of process levels and decision-making preferences is valuable in improving performance.
Importance of hit rate and payoff ratio in the success of portfolio managers.
Data from high performing fund managers emphasizes the significance of being right more often.
Managing risk and understanding the psychological aspects of decision-making in trading is crucial for success.
The psychology of portfolio managers, whether quantitative or fundamental, can be toxic due to the high likelihood of being wrong and facing challenges.
Analysis shows a tight grouping in hit rate among successful fund managers.
Importance of Psychological Skills in Trading
Top portfolio managers need a specific psychological profile that can be trained.
Not everyone is naturally suited for success in trading and must work on developing the necessary skills.
Navy SEAL selection process emphasizes mental toughness alongside physical fitness.
Traders can enhance their performance by focusing on mental resilience and developing the right mindset for success in financial markets.
The concept of psychological flexibility in trading is highlighted, emphasizing the importance of adapting to challenging emotions and situations.
Traders are encouraged to focus on current market conditions and take appropriate action despite doubts or fears.
The misconception that traders will eventually reach a point of trading without fear or stress is challenged.
Experienced traders still experience emotions but have learned to manage them effectively over time.
The key message is to accept and work through emotional challenges in trading rather than expecting them to disappear entirely.
Importance of Managing Emotions in Trading
Emphasizes managing thoughts, emotions, urges, memories, and images to avoid hindering action.
Experiment shows challenge of managing verbal and physical tasks simultaneously.
Common thoughts and feelings discussed include reluctance to take losses and fear of missing out.
Managing emotions and thoughts is crucial for successful trading.
The importance of psychological skills in trading situations.
Opposing actions to thoughts are possible, challenging the misconception that thoughts always lead to actions.
Clients face challenges in tough years, emphasizing the need for consistency in behavior despite doubts and worries.
Three core psychological skills are outlined for effectively navigating trading situations.
Importance of Psychological Flexibility in Trading
Traders should focus on commitment and self-reflection to be successful.
Envision the type of trader you want to be: focused, constantly improving, and strategically aggressive.
Discomfort is necessary for growth, but having a clear purpose is key to overcoming the brain's resistance.
Balancing discomfort with a sense of purpose is crucial for maintaining commitment and psychological flexibility in trading.
Importance of Personal Commitment and Consistency.
A client exemplifies commitment to being masterful through coaching, training, and mentorship.
The power of personal commitment is demonstrated through dedication to chosen qualities.
Clarity in trading processes and adaptability in challenging moments are emphasized.
The concept of focus is introduced, stressing the importance of external and internal focus levels.
Importance of external and internal awareness in mindfulness meditation.
External awareness involves recognizing patterns and context changes.
Internal awareness is crucial for managing thoughts and emotions to avoid unhelpful behaviors.
The need to focus on what is important in the present moment is emphasized.
Practices like mindfulness meditation and journaling are highlighted as tools to enhance awareness and rewire focus.
Importance of recognizing thoughts and feelings impacting trading behaviors.
Internal awareness compared to a calm river for better control over behaviors during market fluctuations.
Observing thoughts and feelings from a detached perspective for making informed decisions and avoiding emotional reactions.
Differentiating between reactive emotions and intentional actions to maintain consistency in trading performance.
Importance of awareness and identifying emotions in trading.
Putting feelings into words reduces their impact and allows for better decision-making.
Goal in trading is to manage emotions effectively, not eliminate them.
Developing psychological skills to handle doubts, worries, and fears can lead to better trading outcomes.
The key is awareness, commitment, and willingness to be uncomfortable.
Embrace discomfort in trading to achieve profitability.
Avoidance behaviors can hinder market returns.
Accept discomfort as part of the trading process, similar to marathon runners accepting physical challenges.
Prioritize profitability over comfort for success in trading.
Understanding and Managing Emotions in Trading.
Remind yourself of potential discomfort at the start of trading and be open to accepting it without immediate action.
Emphasize that thoughts and emotions are part of the process and can be viewed as data for assessing their function and relevance.
Fear can indicate a need for action in the market, while emotions like fear and excitement are inherent and cannot be eliminated.
Key to successful trading is understanding and being aware of emotions to make informed decisions.
Importance of Acknowledging Difficult Trading Situations and Emotions
Acknowledging and breathing can shift one from a reactive to a responsive state, improving decision-making.
Three core steps for handling challenging moments: acknowledge, breathe, and choose a response.
These steps aid traders in navigating tough situations and making mindful trading decisions.
Importance of Journaling for Traders
Journaling allows traders to reflect, gain insights, and set actions.
It helps in training psychology, increasing awareness, and coping with challenges.
The process involves daily self-reflection and planning for improvement.
Trying journaling for three months can lead to positive changes in trading outcomes.
Speaker's experience as a volatility trader in 2022 and 2023, focusing on risk management and mindset towards trading.
Speaker expresses fear of losing money daily and emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading.
Speaker discusses managing changing moods and the need to adapt and evolve mindset towards risk-taking.
Speaker highlights the validation from other successful traders for his feelings and struggles in trading.
Importance of Overcoming Fear and Doubt in Trading
Traders are encouraged to operate without fear or doubt and understand the impact of comparison on self-worth.
Permission to feel anxiety and imperfection in trading is appreciated, emphasizing the need to take action despite negative feelings.
Reflecting on personal experiences, the speaker shares stories of devastating losses in trading accounts and the valuable lessons learned from such failures.
Importance of self-control in trading.
Emphasize on self-reflection each morning to avoid relying on the market for salvation.
Acting objectively and avoiding trading too big helps maintain control and avoid anxiety.
Using past trading decisions to feel disgusted as motivation for responsible and objective trading.
Self-discipline and control are highlighted as crucial for successful trading practices.
Importance of visualizing trading strategies and analyzing past failures.
Emphasis on studying charts and considering alternative actions in different scenarios.
Presentation of 186 charts where a 20 point stop loss didn't work to prompt reflection on decision-making process.
Encouragement for traders to imagine successful trades and constantly visualize profitable outcomes.
Key takeaway: learning from mistakes and using visualization techniques to enhance trading performance.
Visualizing trades before they happen and challenges of adding to winning trades.
Turning small moves into significant wins by visualizing outcomes and adjusting stop losses.
Emphasis on the difficulty of undoing the habit of adding to winning trades once successful.
Highlighting the mindset and skills required to succeed in trading, based on 10 years of experience on the trading floor.
Importance of trading trends and executing trades based on specific indicators.
Understanding trend days and the impact of spreads on trading outcomes.
Criteria for executing successful trades, including moving stop-loss to break even.
Examples and data provided to support trading strategies.
Encouragement for viewers to study the information presented.
Importance of comprehensive education and practical exercises in developing trading skills.
Speaker included 340 charts to educate viewers on trading strategies.
Emphasized training eyes to see patterns on charts, using the FedEx logo as an example.
Encouraged audience participation through an exercise involving raising hands and answering questions honestly.
Highlighted value of active engagement in the learning process.
Trading Behavior Exercise
Participants are prompted to raise their hand in response to questions about trading behaviors, like adding to losing trades out of anger or seeking revenge.
Reflecting on past behaviors and visualizing potential trading scenarios helps prepare for emotional responses.
The exercise encourages self-awareness and rational decision-making in trading situations.
The goal is to highlight common emotional pitfalls in trading and promote a more strategic approach to managing trades.
Importance of controlling emotions in trading.
Emphasizes that trading is not a hobby but a livelihood.
Shares personal experience of gaining and losing significant profits.
Stress on being cautious with big wins to prevent overconfidence.
Mentions the importance of focusing on trading goals and avoiding distractions.
Importance of Healthy Lifestyle for Successful Trading.
Physical exercise, adequate rest, and good nutrition are crucial for successful trading.
Blood sugar levels impact decision-making and performance in trading.
Engaging in exercise can improve trading performance.
Stable blood sugar levels lead to better decisions and positive results in trading activities.
Importance of being well-rested and making decisions in a clear state of mind.
Anecdote about a conversation with golfer Luke Donald regarding Tiger Woods' mental resilience is shared.
Emphasis on living in the present moment and having no recollection of past failures.
Ability to maintain focus and resilience under pressure is key to success.
Demonstration of Tiger Woods' mental strength on the golf course.
Importance of Mental Coaching in Trading Performance Improvement.
Luke Donald attributed his success in golf to his mental coach, prompting the speaker to draw parallels between golf and trading.
Understanding the instruments being traded and setting parameters for losses are crucial in trading.
Deep knowledge of trading products is essential for successfully navigating various markets.
The speaker underscores the significance of mental coaching and expertise in trading for optimal performance.
Importance of trading strategies and performance aspect in trading.
Personal responsibility is crucial for successful trading, as great strategies are ineffective without proper implementation.
Speaker shares a trading technique that led to wealth and aims to help others.
Value of practice and focused approach emphasized for successful trading.
Critique on conventional education in trading, focusing on the importance of seeing the full picture for decision-making.
Importance of Quality Practice and Mentorship in Skill Development.
Anders Ericson and Malcolm Gladwell popularized the 10,000 hour rule for expertise.
Ericson emphasizes that quality of practice matters more than quantity of hours.
Having a mentor is crucial for skill development according to Ericson.
Ericson uses eSignal for chart analysis and highlights the importance of problem-solving and true learning in skill development.
Importance of a Good Teacher in Student Performance
Emphasis on the role of a good teacher in improving student performance.
Practicing realistic scenarios is crucial for better understanding market behavior.
The fishing technique in trading involves placing stop losses based on instinct.
Market movements can signal buying opportunities or potential breakouts, with different types of orders being executed.
The speaker discusses market scenarios, price retests, and buyer/seller behavior in trading strategies.
Examples from NASDAQ are used to illustrate different trading strategies.
The importance of recognizing trends and using charts as part of a morning routine is emphasized.
The speaker mentions underestimating the number of slides in the presentation, but assures viewers of a full recording.
Despite the length of the seminar, the speaker expresses commitment to delivering comprehensive content.
The speaker discusses the challenges of presenting hardcore statistics in a large assembly without the opportunity for questions.
Despite the difficulties, the speaker aims to empower the audience with knowledge on what to do in different scenarios.
The goal is to provide a tool that can be applied to make informed decisions on 50% of all trading days.
The speaker expresses gratitude for the audience's presence and support, emphasizing the significance of their participation.