Towards negotiations between Russia & Ukraine/NATO? Nicolai Petro, Alexander Mercouris, Glenn Diesen

The Duran2024-02-25

The Duran#Alex Christoforou#Alexander Mercouris#US news#EU news#Russia news#China news#Geopolitics#GeopoliticalAnalysis#WorldNews#GlobalAffairs#BreakingNews#GlobalEconomy#Nicolai Petro#glenn diesen#nato#russia#putin#zalensky#eu#germany#ukraine

101K views|5 months ago

💫 Short Summary

The video segments discuss the challenges faced during the collapse of the Soviet Union, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the need for diplomatic solutions, and the potential for negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the West. There is an emphasis on the importance of understanding historical traditions, avoiding a 'All or Nothing' strategy, and reconsidering the nation-state system in the current global landscape. The segments highlight the need for stability, peaceful resolutions, and mutual respect in relationships between Russia and the West, as well as the failures of sanctions and the potential for new political perspectives to emerge for coexistence.

✨ Highlights

📊 Transcript

✦

Professor Nikolai Pedro's insights on working for the US State Department during the collapse of the Soviet Union.

01:34

Pedro emphasizes the challenges faced during this time and stresses the importance of understanding Russian historical traditions.

He also discusses the resurgence of national identity and religion in Russia.

Despite his knowledge of deeper philosophical traditions, Pedro admits to struggling with the reality of Soviet life during his 10 years in Russia.

✦

Challenges in negotiating an end to the war and defining a new reality post-Soviet Union.

03:45

Lack of allies in the West for the Soviet Union break.

Persistence in viewing Russia as the Soviet Union.

Importance of having an exit strategy in the current war.

Uncertainty in treating Putin as the new Hitler without clear implications or actions.

✦

Lack of peaceful alternatives to military victory in Ukraine.

07:50

Biden Administration appears opposed to a peaceful settlement in Ukraine.

Western sides are trapped by their rhetoric of achieving victory through recapturing borders.

Negotiations are viewed as surrender, with Russia refusing to agree.

Putin's resistance raises practical challenges due to the disparity in forces.

✦

The need for diplomatic solutions in the conflict in Ukraine.

13:39

Pursuing an 'All or Nothing' strategy is risking severe damage to Ukraine daily.

Concern and dismay in Ukraine are growing, highlighting the urgency for negotiation and diplomatic efforts.

It is crucial to shift towards diplomatic solutions and avoid leaving Ukraine with nothing.

✦

Russia's alienation from the West and missed opportunities for collaboration.

15:39

Insights from Tucker Carlson's interview reveal Russia's desire to join NATO but being rejected.

Emphasis on the importance of balance and offering concessions in conflict resolution.

Discussion of russophobia and negative perceptions of Russians hindering understanding and cooperation.

Promoting the idea of inviting opponents to be part of the New World Order.

✦

US Cold War strategy focused on defining the enemy as communism rather than Russians.

21:45

Negotiations with Russia were hindered by US demands for preconditions, leading to a push for regime change in Moscow and the defeat of Russia.

The moral imperative to support Ukraine joining NATO is compared to Mexico joining a Russian-led alliance.

Despite acknowledging Ukraine's slim chance of winning, the US advocates for continued fighting as a moral obligation.

Voices of dissent within Ukraine offer a potential breakthrough in the current crisis.

✦

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is driven by Western interests in fostering NATO-Russia tension to boost military spending.

22:30

Some in Ukraine seek to avoid fighting for NATO and instead negotiate with Russia for mutually beneficial relations.

This approach could lead to a shift in Ukrainian politics, challenging the West's influence.

The speaker disagrees with the idea of negotiations solely between Moscow and Washington, emphasizing Ukrainian agency in the process.

✦

Negotiations between Moscow and Washington are unlikely due to American interest in straightforward capitulation.

27:41

Russia may be willing to negotiate with Ukraine, but trust is lacking.

Total victory by either side is seen as potentially dangerous, highlighting the need for a negotiated outcome.

Constant interactions occur between senior Ukrainian and Russian officials in the Energy Arena, discussing the flow of Russian gas through Ukraine.

The process of making Russian gas resemble European gas and negotiating pipeline issues is ongoing.

✦

Importance of Direct Dialogue for Negotiation in Ukraine-Russia Relations.

32:27

Prisoner exchanges and secretive meetings between Ukraine and Russia lead to public discussions.

Western involvement in promoting peace in the region is deemed crucial.

Incentives such as stability and a return to peace negotiations could encourage Western governments to participate.

The proposal suggests revisiting past ideas and broadening negotiations to include all relevant parties for a pan-European conference to achieve lasting peace in Europe.

✦

Revisiting and reforming the nation state system in response to changing global dynamics.

34:40

New world powers like China, Africa, Iran, and Russia impacting the traditional nation state system.

Proposal for a new Congress of Vienna or Treaty of Westphalia to address the role of nation states in the modern world.

George Kennan's arguments for reimagining the international system post-Cold War.

Concerns over far-right influence in Ukraine's political decisions and its effects on negotiations with Russia.

✦

Impact of Senk's weakened hand on negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

37:06

Uncertainty of negotiations due to military outcomes and mistake of assuming Russian engagement had ended in 2022.

Emphasis on Russia's military potential and reasons for failure to overwhelm Ukrainian forces.

Possibility of negotiating with Russia, with some Ukrainian leaders advocating for dialogue to heal and rebuild before re-engaging in conflict.

✦

Transformations of Ukrainian nationalists and shifting alliances.

41:56

Rhetoric changed based on political circumstances, aligning with Soviets or Nazis.

Emphasis on negotiation and acceptance of dominant power post-conflict.

Mention of informal contacts between individuals from Ukraine and Russia for potential diplomatic discussions.

Insights on practical politics and strategic decision-making among Ukrainian nationalists.

✦

Informal contacts between Ukrainian and Russian individuals have been taking place, potentially leading to significant developments.

45:13

There is a sense of war weariness in Ukraine, with a shift in perspective towards the ongoing situation.

Former Ukrainian officials have left the country, with some now residing in Moscow.

Both Ukrainian governments are in contact with various individuals in the government.

The focus is on negotiation and finding a peaceful resolution rather than military victory.

✦

Analysis of moral qualms and survival instincts in decision-making.

49:41

Individuals' responses to challenges and opportunities are examined, emphasizing uncertainty and potential outcomes in political situations.

A prominent figure's reinvention and adaptation of rhetoric raise questions about authenticity and political strategy.

Changing perspectives on international conflicts and the impact of foreign powers on regional dynamics are reflected upon.

✦

Reconciliation of religious divisions and reinventing oneself for Western governments.

53:09

Different figures express betrayal by the West and question strategic alliances.

Negotiation and reconciliation between Ukrainians and Russians is discussed.

Some nations resist joining discussions for fear of defeat and limitations in power.

✦

The Western perception of Russia as a constant threat shapes Western identity.

57:08

The Western Elite creates an opposing image of evil to strengthen their identity.

Shared cultural values between Russia and the West are emphasized, focusing on their common European heritage.

Writers and scholars need to address the cultural discourse to change current perceptions.

✦

Influence of Politicians on Political Thinking and Processes.

01:00:11

Politicians have the ability to shape political thought and accelerate progress.

Differing views on Russia exist in the West and Europe, with some pushing for mutual coexistence for peace.

Minority voices in countries like Slovakia and Hungary could positively impact discourse towards coexistence.

The current Western Elite's hostile stance towards Russia poses obstacles to achieving this vision.

✦

Decrease in concern over Russian threat in recent surveys.

01:05:27

Media influences public perception of global dangers.

Democracies face challenges in resource allocation based on public concerns.

Russia's actions in Ukraine may impact perceived danger levels.

Questions arise about historical tensions and alliance systems in relation to Russia.

✦

Russia has shifted its focus from the West to the East since 2004, potentially leading to a more amicable separation between Russia and the West.

01:07:24

This shift has damaged relationships with Europe but could ease tensions in the long run.

The speaker believes that Russian culture is important to European culture and emphasizes the need for cooperation between Russia and the West.

They suggest a return to a more Byzantine model of European identity where the East and West collaborate for a better future.

The speaker, a Westernized Russian, stresses the importance of mutual learning and cooperation between Russia and the West.

✦

Russia's relationship with Europe is based on mutual respect and equal footing, with Putin expressing willingness to maintain good relations.

01:13:36

Despite current anti-Russian sentiment in Britain, historical interactions between Russian leaders and British officials have been more relaxed.

Alexei Kosygin's visit to Britain in 1967 exemplified this, occurring during a period of stability in Europe when no perceived threats existed among divided blocks.

The visit included meetings with the Prime Minister, politicians, and the Queen, showcasing a different dynamic compared to current tensions.

✦

Importance of stability in relationships between Russia and the West

01:15:18

Emphasis on the need for a more friendly and relaxed atmosphere in relations.

Historical periods of cultural exchanges and communication are mentioned, along with the role of British historians in understanding Russian culture.

Stability is discussed as something that must be earned and imposed to maintain equal and stable relations.

Fear of consequences of not granting equality is suggested as a driving force for accepting stability in relationships.

✦

Impact of the collapse of the Soviet Union on Russia and the world order.

01:19:25

Russia is rebuilding and reshaping the world order in its image post-Soviet Union collapse.

Current Russian leadership aims to promote its objectives to other BRICS countries.

The West is hesitant to accept Russia's shift, leading to mutual instability.

War in Ukraine underscores the need for stability and peace between Russia and Ukraine amidst global power struggles.

✦

Analysis of propaganda and resentment in global politics, focusing on the West's view of Russia.

01:22:35

Discussion on balance of power, with a focus on Russia's perspective on balancing the West in different aspects.

Highlighting the imbalance between Russia and the West in terms of resources and connections.

Social media's influence in preventing the recognition of this imbalance.

The need for mutual respect of interests to improve political discourse between Russia and the West.

✦

The importance of maintaining parity with Russia in terms of nuclear weapons and the danger they pose.

01:25:15

Russia aims for a multipolar world for stability, contrasting with a unipolar or bipolar world.

Sanctions on Russia have failed, with the Russian economy proving to be more stable and strong than assumed.

An analyst suggests that the long-term effects of sanctions are unlikely, changing perceptions in London and beyond.

✦

Importance of economically stable countries with strong Science and Industry.

01:28:56

Need for engaging with these countries and recognizing their resilience.

Hope for a positive shift in approach, with references to articles in Britain and past events involving Russia and Ukraine.

Critique of previous approaches in dealing with Russia and suggestion of harmonizing with great powers like Russia.

✦

Ineffectiveness of Sanctions over 40 Years.

01:33:25

Sanctions in countries like South Africa, Venezuela, and Iran have not achieved their intended goals.

Politicians continue to implement sanctions without questioning their effectiveness.

Academics should raise awareness about the failures of sanctions and challenge policymakers on their unrealistic expectations.

✦

Sanctions on Russia have not achieved the desired outcome and have not weakened the country as intended.

01:36:19

Russia has not only survived but has also grown despite the sanctions imposed on it.

The objective of degrading Russia's economy through sanctions has not been successful.

Sanctions are now less effective in a multipolar world as Russia has diversified its resources.

Recent events have shown that sanctions impact European nations more than Russia, contrary to previous beliefs.

✦

The segment discusses the need for political parties advocating for coexistence with Russia to become mainstream.

01:39:16

The speaker believes that the removal of current dominant political parties is necessary for this shift to occur.

Challenges faced by current elites in maintaining hostility towards Russia are highlighted.

The younger generation is seen as having the potential to adopt a broader perspective on world events and engage in meaningful dialogue for reconciliation.

✦

Importance of bringing new blood into politics early and frequently.

01:42:42

Avoiding resistance to novel interpretations and new ideas in politics.

Participants agree that the discussion has been wonderful.

Decision to finish the conversation on a positive note.

Expression of gratitude for the conversation.

00:00hi everyone and welcome to today's

00:02discussion my name is Glenn dies and I'm

00:05joined today by Alexander

00:07mercuris and the guest today is

00:10Professor Nikolai Pedro

00:12welcome nice to be here a pleasure to

00:15have you again

00:17Nicola so yeah we had Nikolai here

00:20before he's a professor of political

00:22science at University of Rhode Island

00:24but I also find it interesting you have

00:25a background as a practitioner uh from

00:28the US State Department at an

00:30interesting point in time of course when

00:32the Soviet Union collapsed we worked for

00:34the US state department as a Special

00:36Assistant for policy on uh Soviet

00:39Affairs I'm not sure if I got that title

00:41right but anyways I find this to be an

00:43interesting background because it gives

00:44a gives you a nice understanding and

00:46great perspective on I guess the paths

00:48that were chosen and the I the different

00:50future perhaps which uh were not

00:53taken ciously if I may yeah

00:58curiously I I just it just struck me how

01:04similar this the similarity the

01:06prospects that we faced then and

01:09now it was beginning to be clear in 1990

01:14that the old world was

01:17collapsing and uh people uh who had not

01:21thought ever in their careers to be

01:24facing the prospect of a new world order

01:28in which the Soviet Union did not exist

01:31and therefore could not be an

01:34enemy uh had a had a devil of a time let

01:38me put it this way had a devil of a Time

01:41facing that reality and I think one of

01:45the things that brought my

01:47candidacy uh this was through the

01:49Council on Foreign

01:50Relations to the four was the fact that

01:54I had already been writing about the

01:58prospects of Russian Russian social

02:01transformation and that what I and that

02:04I believe that communism was rather an

02:07overlay onto a deeper Russian historical

02:11tradition which was much more

02:14varied than the one that that had been

02:18portrayed by the government in some

02:21respects I was right in the Resurgence

02:26of national identity and religion I

02:29think

02:31but in some ways I was wrong as well in

02:35that

02:36um the

02:38collective nature of society the idea of

02:42us being one unit uh which uh existed in

02:47Russia but also to a large extent

02:49throughout the entire Soviet Union um

02:52had laid Deep Roots and I having grown

02:55up in the Russian immigration

02:57abroad really had an ear for the deeper

03:01philosophical tradition and the and the

03:04history not but a tin ear I would say

03:08for the for the Soviet reality and that

03:11hit me very hard when I moved there in

03:1419 uh

03:181996 and then proceeded to live and and

03:21work there for part of 10 years in in a

03:25rural region no the region of no really

03:30no the

03:32great

03:33interesting it's interesting you would

03:35say many people couldn't

03:37uh yeah foresee or imagine living in a

03:41world without the Soviet Union because I

03:43feel that might be perhaps one of the

03:45problems we have with negotiating an end

03:47here because we can't go back to the way

03:49things were obviously and I think it's

03:51very hard to come up with what a new

03:53reality might look like once this war is

03:56over uh anyway and that's yeah kind of

03:59what we really to discuss with you today

04:01as particularly particularly because the

04:04media uh extended the life of the Soviet

04:08Union artificially in people's minds

04:12although the people within the Soviet

04:14Union were ready to make that break and

04:17move on but they had no Road mapap and

04:21they had no allies in the west and that

04:25is much to our Collective

04:28shame

04:30I I agree by the way I think that's

04:32entirely correct and I've spoken to

04:35others Jeffrey saxs in his own very

04:38different very different perspective

04:40economic perspective essentially says

04:42the same thing that um he went there and

04:46he found that he had no allies in doing

04:50what he wanted to do in Washington

04:52because again people could

04:54not really make the conceptual leap that

04:59was was needed they couldn't put behind

05:02them um some of the older views that had

05:06been developing over the Cold War and

05:09you know the sense of the Soviet Union

05:12is somehow still there even as it

05:16wasn't well I point out to my

05:19students that to this day whenever there

05:23have been US presidential candidates and

05:26particular when there's a slew of them

05:28fighting it out to get you know into the

05:30into the sunshine of the final uh being

05:34the final choice of of their respective

05:38parties every single one of them has

05:40made the error at some point along the

05:43campaign trail of inadvertently

05:47referring to Russia as the Soviet Union

05:50just in casual discourse and that shows

05:53um a sad

05:55mindset uh of our of our political Elite

05:58their inability

06:00to see the reality as it

06:04is so

06:07um uh let's yeah jump into the issue of

06:11uh negotiations uh I think this is uh

06:14something that might become more likely

06:17uh in the months if not the weeks to

06:19come um in terms of I guess who would

06:21have to do the negotiations would it be

06:24Washington or ke uh what prevents

06:26diplomacy what will be the different

06:28parties willing to compromise on and uh

06:31the reason I think this is an

06:32interesting topic is because one of the

06:34more absurd aspects of this War I think

06:37has been the absence of an exit strategy

06:38that is the leaders keep saying and the

06:41media for that sake that uh the only

06:44acceptable outcome is Victory but no one

06:47has defined what victory against the

06:49world's largest nuclear power would

06:51actually look like and I also hear

06:54leaders make the argument that we must

06:56treat Putin like the new Hitler but what

06:58do exactly does that mean no one

07:01outlines if we should follow the same

07:04path are we going to invade Moscow are

07:06we going to watch him die in a bunker

07:08this is and none of this really is yeah

07:12is very reassuring so meanwhile I think

07:15for two years now we see on NATO side

07:18we've rejected diplomacy negotiations

07:21and also security guarantees and I think

07:24the problem with this is that there's no

07:25peaceful alternative to a military

07:27Victory uh we haven't defined it and

07:30also unlikely that we could ever achieve

07:33it so I guess this is the Strategic

07:36vacuum of this war but um let's start

07:39with this uh question of uh where do you

07:41see the nego well who would do the

07:44negotiations because I think the Biden

07:46Administration appears to be well

07:48fiercely opposed to Peaceful settlement

07:50maybe I get this wrong but uh does that

07:52mean that the initiative has to shift to

07:54ke to push for a

07:58negotiation

08:01right now I think all sides in the west

08:05are trapped by their own rhetoric and

08:09that rhetoric insists that Ukraine must

08:14achieve Victory and victory is

08:18defined specifically as the recapture of

08:22the borders of

08:241991 so that includes

08:27Crimea and the problem

08:29here uh so so let me just step back so

08:34that's the objective and then there are

08:38to be

08:39negotiations so we have essentially

08:44reconstituted The

08:46Impossible

08:49conundrum which would been which we were

08:51unable to resolve with the means

08:54Accord which

08:56was um we will

09:00deal magnanimously with

09:03donbas after they have surrendered and

09:06after they have

09:08returned uh reentered UK Ukraine and and

09:13and and Ukraine has reestablished

09:16control over the

09:18border which of course gives them no

09:20leverage whatsoever and and so it was

09:24essentially negotiations were tantamount

09:26to

09:27surrender and of course

09:30Zas and its supporters in Russia could

09:33not agree to that that's the situation

09:36we have right now the expectation as I

09:39understand it in Washington was yes and

09:43even rhetorically to this day you will

09:45hear state department and defense

09:48department uh officials say yes of

09:51course we're for

09:53negotiations but at the right time and

09:56the right time is after Russia's been

09:58defeated but what if Russia cannot be

10:03defeated Putin has

10:05suggested he's not going to allow

10:08that and it's hard to imagine

10:12practically how that could happen given

10:15the disparity of forces which previous

10:18presidents recognized and saw as a

10:22constraint on their activities I'm

10:25referring specifically to Barack Obama

10:28and why he refused to engage uh

10:31specifically in support to the same

10:34extent of of

10:36Ukraine during his presidency he said

10:39there is famously he said there is an

10:41escalation dominance problem they can

10:44always do more locally than we can from

10:46a distance and this is proving to be

10:50correct

10:51today now I'm not

10:53saying well we can speculate about that

10:56will Russia inevitably win or is the

11:00opportunity to inflict a strategic

11:03defeat on Ukraine something that it has

11:07roughly by the end of the year and the

11:09beginning of next year to accomplish

11:12because at that point presumably all the

11:15money and things like that uh toward uh

11:18rearmament in the west will begin to to

11:22have effects so that's that's a very

11:25complicated and uncertain question but

11:29if um before that we have a a practical

11:34dilemma and a moral dilemma the

11:36Practical dilemma would be to end the

11:39war so that the fabric of international

11:43diplomacy and the International

11:45Community can begin to be renit and this

11:49has to occur because the only

11:51alternative is the is mutual

11:55Annihilation uh I did I never thought I

11:58would miss the days when we were talking

12:00about Mutual assured destruction but it

12:02would be a very useful concept to

12:04remember today that we still if anything

12:07have this this capacity in

12:10Spades and the second problem is is the

12:13moral one I was struck by a phrase that

12:18Ambassador Chaz

12:20Freeman made at a speech here in uh

12:24Rhode Island not long ago I would remind

12:26our viewers that he was former US

12:29ambassador to China in Saudi Arabia

12:31former US assistant Secretary of Defense

12:34former acting Director of National

12:35Intelligence in other words he's covered

12:37all the bases and and I quote

12:42him to to say combating Russia to the

12:46last ukrainians was an was always an

12:49odious strategy and now Ukraine is about

12:53I'm sorry NATO is about to run out of

12:57ukrainians well

13:02put this is this is absolutely correct

13:05because of course one of the things that

13:08it seems to me that isn't fully

13:11understood in the west is that if you

13:14pursue what is in effect an All or

13:16Nothing strategy

13:19Victory is your

13:21only way forward then you know you

13:25always risk ending up with nothing but

13:29of course nothing isn't something that

13:30we in the west are going to pay it is

13:33what ukrainians risk and um the damage

13:39that is being done to Ukraine every

13:42single day is appalling and it is now

13:47increasingly I think understood in

13:48Ukraine itself I try to follow what

13:53happens there I don't speak the language

13:55but I understand that there's increasing

13:57concern and disme in Ukraine about the

14:02situation and I would have thought that

14:05that alone should actually push towards

14:10a at least an attempt at a diplomatic

14:13solution I get the sense sometimes

14:16listening to officials in London in

14:19Brussels in Berlin in Washington that

14:23they're almost afraid to negotiate and I

14:25wonder why I ask myself what is it about

14:29negotiations that they so

14:36fear well

14:38I I I would sorry Gathering my thoughts

14:43um people fear what they cannot

14:47foresee and I think the new world

14:51order that is probably

14:55coming

14:57inevitably is something that they fear

15:01instinctively and therefore they

15:04cling too the nail to the old

15:09ways and what they don't

15:13appreciate um is how much they've

15:16alienated Russia which would have been

15:23happy 10 15 years ago even more 202 5

15:28years ago to have been part of this new

15:32world

15:33order would have been happy to be part

15:35of it but the west and we get this from

15:39Tucker Carlson's interview now it's I

15:42think irrevocably part of the of of our

15:47political discourse the understanding

15:50that what something that diplomatic

15:53historians only were really familiar

15:55with before this interview namely that

15:59Russia asked four times specifically

16:03about the prospects of joining NATO and

16:07were rebuffed by multiple presidents as

16:10well as NATO

16:12leaders um and again this goes back to a

16:18point I made at the beginning where we

16:21simply as a

16:24generation did not Envision could not

16:27envision better

16:30future I was speaking recently to a

16:32group in India and they said well what

16:35about realism I mean doesn't realism in

16:38fact uh predict that sort of

16:42limited ability to reach an accord

16:46because it anticipates conflict as being

16:48a perennial aspect of of human

16:52Affairs only to to an extent because the

16:57ideal

16:59for resolving conflict was also inherent

17:02in h morgand House's thinking namely

17:06that if you should gain the upper hand

17:10you do not strive for dominance and

17:13hemony that is a fiction what you should

17:17strive for if you are wise and

17:20statesmanlike is balance you seek the

17:23middle ground and you offer concessions

17:27that are

17:29interesting and meaningful to your

17:31former opponents but not vital to

17:34yourselves and thereby begin to form a

17:39um you you you invite your uh opponents

17:45to become part of the New World Order

17:48you give them an investment a reason to

17:51invest in the New World Order and this

17:53was something that um again I would I

17:57would agree with those to say Russia was

17:59consistently denied I saw it in my own

18:02experience and I I exper and and and I

18:06observed it among my colleagues later um

18:10there were of course individuals who had

18:13great sympathy for

18:15Russia and its aspirations in the US

18:19state department and in senior

18:21Physicians but they would run into a

18:23wall of elite consensus that nothing was

18:28possible and a very dismal view of

18:32Russians as a people that was that

18:36really smacks of

18:39russophobia in a in an ethnic sense it

18:44really was a I I hesitate to use the

18:47term racist because it's not racial but

18:48it is ethnically

18:50driven and

18:53cult this was largely Solan nen's

18:56argument as well towards the end of the

18:58the cold war that the US should Define

19:01its enemy as being communism not

19:03Russians because uh communism is gone if

19:07then that would entail perpetuating this

19:10uh whole Crusade and this well pretty

19:13much not ending the Cold War but I'm

19:16wondering I'm wondering if the sorry go

19:19ahead no I tell you go ahead I I sorry I

19:23interrupted you no no I was just goingon

19:25to say this because you mentioned we

19:28don't have any that we locked oursel

19:31away from negotiation that me we

19:32redefined it but in the beginning it

19:34feels like it was uh opportunistic way

19:38uh it was an opportunistic construction

19:40but now it seems like we trapped

19:42ourselves because keep in mind on the

19:44third day after the Russians invaded the

19:46the ukrainians and Russians agreed let's

19:48we're going to have negotiations without

19:51any uh preconditions and later on you

19:54know the United States intervene said no

19:56we don't accept this there has to be

19:57preconditions you have to withdraw all

19:59your troops and then we'll negotiate so

20:01again as you suggested uh we conflate

20:04the negotiation with capitulation and um

20:08again the same idea was you know we'll

20:10Supply them weapons to Ukraine so they

20:12can get better bargaining power but yeah

20:14two years later no one's calling for

20:16negotiation so that wasn't really

20:18correct either and uh if you listen to

20:21British historian Ferguson he he works

20:24or he wrote a piece for blooms

20:26Bloomsburg where he interv viwed various

20:29leaders in Britain and us and they all

20:31came back essentially with the same

20:33answer the only acceptable outcome is

20:35regime change in Moscow and strategic

20:37defeat of Russia so uh so I think once

20:42in the beginning that could have been

20:43seen as an opportunity which pursued but

20:45I think now it's become much deeper

20:47because now it's h we linked it into

20:49immorality that is uh you know Ukraine

20:52has to be allowed to join NATO and it's

20:55seen as you know moral because every

20:57country country should be allowed to do

21:00as they please but of course what this

21:02actually means is you know it would be

21:05like Mexico joining a Russian lead

21:06Alliance it what what what what we're

21:09saying is obviously in the real world

21:10this would never happen we know that the

21:12Russians would never permit permit this

21:14and the same goes now we even though we

21:17accept there's no possibility of Ukraine

21:20winning we we still want to keep them

21:23fighting simply because it's the moral

21:25thing to do um

21:29talk about I think you've articulated

21:33the current cuis act in which there is

21:37no way

21:38out how do you break through

21:42this there is a

21:45potential um it is voices of dissent

21:50inside

21:51Ukraine because if you want to

21:57remove

21:59the

22:00basis for the conflict between Russia

22:05and

22:06Ukraine you have to remove the equation

22:09of the West you have to remove its

22:12contribution and its interest because

22:14its interests are

22:18entirely uh driven by the need to have

22:24and F and Foster a conflict between NATO

22:29and

22:30Russia a conflict that will allow for

22:34the a tremendous growth in military

22:37expenditure for

22:39decades I mean this is already PL

22:43clearly been

22:44articulate so that is now um the

22:49strategy of the

22:52military industrial complex in the west

22:56we are to some extent going to save our

23:00economies by repurposing them for

23:04conflict with Russia it worked before it

23:08worked in the 1950s and the

23:101960s why can't it work

23:13today so the way

23:16out is for these um voices in

23:23Ukraine that wish

23:26to not fight

23:29on behalf of NATO to the last

23:32Ukrainian

23:33but wish to save

23:36Ukraine in order some of them to reach a

23:40compromise with Russia that would allow

23:43for mutually beneficial relations

23:47others nevertheless well willing to

23:50support such a policy but with the

23:52intent of recapturing those

23:56territories 203 years from

23:59now maybe by becoming a much more

24:02attractive

24:03alternative to neighboring regions of

24:07Russia than Russia is

24:10itself um and I think by the way that

24:13this is at aoes position he is not for

24:16capitulation he is for

24:19regrouping and reaching a peace

24:22settlement and saving what can be

24:25saved but on either way

24:29this sort of should this

24:33tendency and should these voices grow

24:37important in Ukrainian politics which is

24:40I'll Grant you hard to imagine given the

24:42tight lid that is put on desent in

24:45Ukraine but nevertheless should it

24:48should it become important and should

24:51negotiations then

24:53begin between ukrainians and Russians

24:56themselves

24:59then the West would be left empty-handed

25:02essentially in its Ambitions and I think

25:05that is really the only way to move

25:07forward I'm I I do not agree with what I

25:10heard in Putin's speech and what I

25:13sometimes hear uh voices emanating from

25:16Moscow and elsewhere that this has to be

25:18a negotiation between Moscow and

25:21Washington or Moscow and

25:24well Moscow and Washington because

25:27Brussels

25:29of

25:30Washington um because uh that denies

25:34ukrainians all agency and ukrainians

25:39desire such agency they want to be part

25:41of the negotiations and really asserting

25:44their right to

25:46negotiate on their own behalf is

25:49probably the only way to save the

25:52country not just now but in the long run

25:56I I I completely agree I I I'm going to

25:58say one thing I think the idea that was

26:02current in Moscow that this is going to

26:04all end as a result of some kind of

26:07understanding between Moscow and

26:09Washington and new Yalta was quite WID

26:14spread in the

26:16Autumn I I I sense that it has gradually

26:21ebed away I think that they've been

26:23looking at I mean some people like Putin

26:25might still be speaking about it did get

26:28the sense Putin is speaking about it

26:30very much but I I get the sense that

26:33they no longer think that a negotiation

26:37with the Americans over this is possible

26:40because as you set out

26:43earlier the Americans aren't interested

26:46in a negotiation they want

26:48straightforward capitulation and that is

26:51of course something that the Russians

26:53are not going to ever agree to so that

26:56only leaves ukra Ukraine as the only

26:59party that the Russians can negotiate

27:01with and if you actually followed

27:05Putin's interview with Carlson which he

27:09just recently give and it's not

27:11inconsistent with other things he's been

27:13saying and which other Russians have

27:16been saying as well other important

27:17Russians they say look we are prepared

27:20to sit down it's the ukrainians however

27:23who need to make the first move theyve

27:25made themselves this law which is the

27:27ICT that we all know that zalinski has

27:30they got to put all that aside and I did

27:33get the sense actually that they are

27:36prepared to talk to the ukrainians

27:39provided the ukrainians will talk to

27:41them there is a deficit of trust it

27:44might be problematic for the Russians

27:47now to negotiate with some

27:49ukrainians but I think that there is

27:53still a awareness amongst some people in

27:58Moscow that if total Victory by the West

28:02against them is uh a dangerous fantasy

28:08total Victory by Russia is also

28:13potentially dangerous as well so some

28:17kind of negotiated outcome is optimal

28:21that is my own sense of what

28:23the I won't going to say exactly

28:26consensus is in Moscow but because I'm

28:28not able I mean I don't talk to these

28:31people but I I do get the feeling that

28:33that is the way the people are thinking

28:37that

28:39so there

28:42are constant interactions between senior

28:48Ukrainian and Russian

28:52officials they

28:54occur regularly in the Energy Arena

28:59because Russian gas still flows through

29:03Ukraine through the existing pipeline

29:07Network at least until the end of the

29:10year I

29:11think and um the prospect of the

29:15question what to do about this and how

29:19to make it resemble make the Russian gas

29:23resemble European gas reverse flows and

29:26how to continue that all has to be

29:30negotiated between senior uh officials

29:34in the respective energy

29:36departments and there is of course the

29:39constant interaction between the

29:40respective

29:42militaries uh who are exchanging

29:47prisoners um most of the time

29:52successfully and uh so the contexts are

29:55there they simply need to be

30:00expanded and they might for all we

30:03know actually be expanding through those

30:07connections but it would never be

30:09admitted

30:11publicly until something has been

30:14achieved and and a uh and an

30:18accomplishment could be could be

30:20declared I for example how flat-footed

30:23were we all we were all caught by uh the

30:28upcoming meeting in Moscow of

30:31Palestinian officials from various

30:33factions you know yesterday there was

30:36Moscow was out and today it's right

30:38smack in the middle of everything again

30:41that's because all the negotiations were

30:43done in secret and then when everybody

30:45was on board boom now now we have

30:48something to

30:51discuss in Practical terms may may I

30:54just add one caveat so there uh there is

30:59a way to have your pi and eated to in

31:04terms of negotiation so the first step

31:07is to establish the possibility of

31:10direct

31:12dialogue

31:15between relevant and responsible

31:18officials in Ukraine and

31:20Russia who have the authority to

31:24negotiate

31:26something even the something doesn't

31:28have to be

31:29specified the Minsk Accords by the way

31:31were not signed by uh any actual

31:36Ukrainian official they were signed by a

31:40rep by by Le kma who was temporarily

31:44designated as a representative of penko

31:49personally and that was considered such

31:51a clever move by the ukrainians because

31:53it you know on the one hand yes we were

31:56signing the Accords on the other hand

31:58maybe we weren't and you know we can

32:02that can work for a while and so that's

32:05that's the first step once those are

32:07underway however there

32:09is nevertheless the bigger issue of how

32:16to uh

32:19encourage the West to buy into peace

32:23peace between Ukraine and Russia

32:25something that Western Government s

32:27currently do not

32:29want how do you do that well by offering

32:34them a carrot and saying well after this

32:36is negotiated you will in fact have lost

32:41your major bulwark your major way of

32:45trying to undermine stability in our

32:49region like you lost Iraq like you lost

32:52Afghanistan you know this is strike

32:55three you're out

32:57but we're going to offer you a way back

33:00in let us indeed

33:04revisit proposal of

33:072008 and

33:09U Vladimir Putin's proposal at the end

33:12of 20121 and broaden it to include all

33:16relevant parties let us have a true

33:19peace

33:21negotiation in Europe a paneuropean

33:25conference that would touch upon all the

33:27things that are upsetting to um states

33:32in the region and

33:36construct for for discussion of

33:40democracy of

33:42security of the well-being of the

33:45continent as a whole and you'll say well

33:49this was already

33:50done this was done in 1975 in hsen ke

33:54and we have an organizational structure

33:56for for that

33:58indeed let's use that formula and

34:01revisit it or if that formula seems too

34:06constricting now because we have a new

34:08world order on the horizon which

34:11includes states that are interested in

34:14Europe but overshadow Europe in the long

34:18run that includes China that includes

34:22perhaps Africa perhaps Iran certainly

34:26Russia the

34:27generally they must have a seat at the

34:30table so maybe we should be thinking in

34:33larger terms of the new Congress of

34:36Vienna or I go back even further to the

34:40origin of the nation state system let's

34:43think about you know we haven't

34:45Revisited this question in 400

34:50years how important are nation states

34:53today in an age of trans National

34:58Communications artificial intelligence

35:01and God knows what all these things

35:04together maybe we should be reexamining

35:07in a new Treaty of West failure these

35:10are all exciting prospects to come

35:15after an Armistice agreement at the very

35:18least is is agreed to between Ukraine

35:21and Russia itself and that is relatively

35:25much simpler because we are talking

35:27about two states negotiating directly

35:30with each other and ignoring all the

35:33chatter to the

35:35side remind me a bit now about George

35:38Kennan he was making this arguments in

35:39the 90s that you know now that the world

35:42had completely changed we had all the

35:45opportunities in the world to reinvent

35:47the International System you know invite

35:49the Russians in and he was quite

35:51dismayed that the only political

35:53imagination we had was oh let's keep

35:56this block and our only decision should

35:59be who should be inside the blocks and

36:00who should stay outside that this was

36:03this cold war mentality it could not be

36:06shaken um but you you mentioned that U

36:10um that there might be more willingness

36:13from the ukrainians once they realize

36:15that this is the only way out to

36:17negotiate with Russia but my my question

36:19would be what who who who in Ukraine

36:23because at the moment uh well one gets

36:25the impression that the far right or

36:27always have this veto as we saw again

36:30both pareno and selinski kind of ran on

36:33a so peace platform at least seninsky

36:36but they all both had to reverse

36:37themselves away from Minsk after

36:39pressure from this you know the fascist

36:42groups asov and others uh so it it begs

36:46the question what can be done and also

36:49one gets the impression now that Selin's

36:50position is rapidly weakening in Kev

36:54Maybe I'm Wrong about this but that's

36:56definely something Alexander has uh yeah

36:59discussed and thought a lot about so I'm

37:02just wondering does that make it easier

37:04to negotiate for the Russians to

37:06negotiate with Ukraine if senk's hand is

37:09weakened or is it only more difficult

37:11because certainly you need

37:13a a central po was capable of talking to

37:19Moscow

37:23probably but may not it depends

37:29depends as I have said from the

37:32beginning of the military the Russia's

37:35military

37:37campaign what is to be negotiated will

37:40depend on the outcome of the

37:43battlefield the West's mistake last year

37:47was to assume that the outcome had been

37:50determined by the temporary repelling of

37:53Russian

37:55forces uh at the the end of

37:582022 and maybe early

38:002023 but that proved to be only the

38:03first

38:05stage of the Russian

38:09engagement then it became more serious

38:12but we didn't change we didn't

38:16foresee how that would affect the

38:21battlefield we made we I should say

38:25Russian

38:28analysts may be falling into a bit of

38:31euphoria here as well today

38:37because the potential that Russia has

38:41has not been fully realized on the

38:45battle the potential that Russia has

38:48militarily uh in terms of resources

38:53Etc you know it should should have a

38:58should be over to overwhelm it should be

39:00able to

39:02overwhelm Ukrainian forces at this

39:07point why it has not done so is a matter

39:12of very interesting

39:14speculation maybe as some in the west

39:17argue because they can't and ultimately

39:20this is a sign of weakness to

39:23exploit but maybe because they

39:27are at the same time suggesting we are

39:30holding back and offering you an

39:32opportunity to

39:34negotiate who wants to talk to us before

39:37we strike because a strike is inevitable

39:41a devastating

39:42strike what I find interesting in the

39:44Ukrainian discourse which I do

39:47follow um is that you mentioned the far

39:53right and its limitations how it poses

39:56limit

39:57ations yes and no there are intellectual

40:01leaders former ministers and I would

40:05specifically mention to you the former

40:08minister of

40:10Transportation

40:11Oman and the former Ukrainian ambassador

40:16to Germany Andre

40:19mik currently

40:21Deputy uh Deputy foreign minister as

40:24well and ambassador to Brazil

40:28both of whom have gone on record now

40:32saying we should not exclude the

40:34possibility of negotiating with

40:37Russia now obviously they've got their

40:39own agenda this is not let's have peace

40:44it is let us lick our wounds heal

40:48rebuild ourselves and re-engage the

40:50fight later that's that's the

40:53traditional far Rider nationalist name

40:56narrative and it hasn't gone

40:59anywhere um and then of course we have

41:01aroic who has gone undergone a total

41:04metamorphosis but you know as someone as

41:07he points out and this is worth

41:09listening to someone who knows the

41:12internal discussions at the very highest

41:15levels of the Ukrainian government here

41:17are three voices who at one point were

41:20totally committed to the far-right

41:23Nationalist agenda and now say well G's

41:29up we have to

41:32reassess and if I look at Ukrainian

41:34history in my book I do tackle this

41:37issue the book came out you know a month

41:40after the invad eventally but now or

41:43let's say a few months after the

41:45invasion but I was I was already

41:46thinking about what could possibly

41:48change given the rhetoric and so I

41:50looked at the rhetoric and the

41:52remarkable

41:53Transformations that the um organiz

41:56ation of Ukrainian nationalists and

41:59their predecessors in

42:01Germany during the inter War period

42:04underwent in their rhetoric when when

42:07they needed to they were entirely an

42:10anti-polish organization During the

42:11interwar period then all of and pro and

42:15I would say allied with the Russians

42:18when that and with the Soviets even when

42:20necessary then once the polls were gone

42:23and it was a matter of dealing uh and

42:25opposing

42:26the Soviet regime everything

42:29switched similarly

42:32when Nazi Germany was on was in

42:36ascendence they were all gung-ho for

42:39that kind of regime for Ukraine but then

42:43when the writing was on the wall and

42:44that regime lost boom they rewrote their

42:47their their Charter and became uh

42:51Democrats Over

42:53N that sort of thing

42:56uh is practical politics and I don't see

43:01much interest in Collective suicide

43:05among Ukrainian nationalists some will

43:07escape to the

43:08west but that won't include everybody in

43:12your family and those people still

43:15remain in Ukraine and there will

43:18be an inevitable acceptance of the need

43:23to negotiate with the power that emerges

43:26dominant as a result of the

43:29battlefield

43:32outcome that that is very interesting I

43:34just want to share with you something

43:37that I an email that I received about

43:41three or four weeks ago now again this

43:44is always very frustrating because I

43:46can't identify the person who sent it to

43:48me but suffice to say he is somebody who

43:52um has contacts both in Moscow and

43:54Ukraine and he's also specifically got

43:58contacts with some people in the Duma

44:00and he informed me that they had in fact

44:04been over the past few weeks a number of

44:08informal contacts between people from

44:11Ukraine and people in Russia and that

44:14this is actually known about in the

44:17Russian Parliament and he gave me the

44:20names of the people who had been

44:22involved allegedly I mean I can't

44:24obviously corroborate all of this but

44:26that's what he said and by the way he's

44:27somebody who in the past I have found

44:30that he what he says turns out to be

44:34correct doesn't mean he's correct about

44:37this but he reminded me the names of the

44:39people who had been reaching out and who

44:42have been speaking to the Russians now

44:44they're all people that all of us have

44:47heard of they're all business people

44:49famous Ukrainian business people it's

44:51not difficult I think to Guess Who some

44:54of them might be but they have have all

44:56been reaching out and they have been

44:58contacting people they know in Russia

45:01they've actually had meetings according

45:02to this person in a few places and there

45:06have been discussions and the Russians

45:08have been relaying the the Russians

45:10they've been meeting have been relaying

45:13back to Moscow to the lead to the

45:16official government what is going on

45:18there so according to this

45:21person these contacts are taking place

45:25they're not going very far there's not

45:27yet been any kind of breakthrough or

45:29anything of that kind but they are

45:34supposedly taking place and they might

45:37lead to something and obviously I am not

45:41following Ukrainian affairs with the

45:43detail that you canai because I don't

45:46speak the language for one thing but I

45:48also get the sense that there has been a

45:50shift that people are now looking at the

45:53situation they're beginning to say this

45:55is isn't working in the way that we were

45:58led to think it would two years ago when

46:02we were assured the know Western support

46:04would work and the Russians would fail

46:07and I I get the sense that there is a

46:10war weariness now starting to take hold

46:13in Ukraine which might explain these

46:16informal contacts that I'm talking

46:19about well let me just add an addendum

46:22to that at one point after

46:26the events of

46:282014 many

46:31Ukrainian officials obviously left the

46:35country including the former prime

46:37minister Nikolai aov and azarov who has

46:41a

46:43Blog

46:45mentioned in

46:47passing that currently in Moscow there

46:52are two complete Ukraine former Ukraine

46:56governments all the ministers everybody

46:59is right there and

47:01obviously they have all the contacts and

47:04know all the people throughout the

47:06government that they've always known so

47:09this is not the case of one country and

47:13it's Elites not being able to

47:16communicate or contact or talk to the

47:19other

47:20side as you suggest right now it's like

47:24well nice to have with you here take my

47:27card let's stay in touch you and uh

47:31we'll see how things

47:33go understandable and you know

47:38not not what the pathos of

47:45military Victory is made of but what is

47:50actually the substance of

47:52negotiation let's find a

47:54way to get through this and end it if

47:58possible without worrying about all the

48:01moral qualms Etc survival

48:05first and I think to the extent that the

48:09reality becomes can we

48:12survive these voices will grow louder

48:16and clearer you ask who Glenn

48:21who anybody any any TV cloud

48:26any you know I mean who did anybody take

48:30zilinski seriously when he declared that

48:33he was going to stand absolutely

48:36not but he

48:38had he had a television

48:42platform people looked at

48:46zalu and somebody who probably I suspect

48:51would like to groom him and he can be

48:53groomed obviously

48:56some people were surprised that he took

49:00his

49:02demotion uh so easily when he could have

49:07used it to establish himself as an

49:11alternative figure and he was in the

49:14safest position to do so at that very

49:18point but we don't know what

49:20blandishments he was offered we don't

49:22know his personal situation we don't

49:24know the mon

49:26but if not Z who now appears to

49:29be uh the hope of some or at is

49:35stage who appears to be the hope of

49:37others it could literally be anyone

49:41coming out of the

49:42woodenwork uh on a moment's notice and

49:47declaring themselves to be the new peace

49:51candidate without somehow being also the

49:54capitulation candidate they can pull

49:56that off I'd say they've got an

49:58excellent

50:00chance it's uh interesting mentioned

50:03stoage because I also have this feeling

50:05that uh he he could potentially be

50:08someone to if not assert a leading role

50:10at least part of the role in a for in a

50:13new government because he well he's he's

50:16perfect uh symbol I think of this shift

50:19as both of you mentioned uh from The

50:22gung Hofer War towards more finding

50:25solution because again for those who

50:27watched his interview in 2019 when he

50:29kind of spelled out yes we need a to

50:32provoke a war with the Russians by

50:36inviting the Americans in and only in

50:38war will we defeat the Russians and you

50:40know this was the Grand goal but for

50:42those who follow him either on telegram

50:44or Twitter he's uh he's he's done a yeah

50:47reinvented himself to such a huge extent

50:50and uh now he's talking about

50:53sorry he's reinvented him himself too

50:56often to be

50:58yeah even even for a politician I get

51:01that and that's why I often get the

51:03whenever I comment on what he's saying

51:05is always the same comments by people

51:07which is well is he authentic he's just

51:09saying what people want to hear which is

51:11fair enough but it's interesting the way

51:13he's reflecting on the development of

51:15Ukraine because now he's suggesting that

51:17was the Americans in NATO who got the N

51:21who got Russia and Ukraine to fight like

51:23two monkeys with knives you know in his

51:24words uh he's also reflected on the far

51:28right influence the bandas as they say

51:31which are a small minority but were able

51:33to dictate identity which Russians sorry

51:36tched upon the importance of reconciling

51:39the religious divisions all popular

51:42theme he himself could not I think be

51:45the candidate he can still reinvent

51:48himself as the voice behind the throne

51:52Whispering uh sweet sweet ideas to the

51:56potential candidate and he will he'll

51:59probably wind up doing that in one

52:01capacity or another E either as an

52:04advisor or let's say consultant for

52:07Western governments you know we we have

52:10an all long history of that with uh

52:13Iraqi refugees and and others uh

52:17escaping to the West um or you know or

52:21or back in in

52:23Ukraine um but it will

52:28um it will have to be somebody different

52:32oh I was I remember what I was going to

52:34say

52:36now it's interesting that you highlight

52:39what he has said and you

52:43mentioned that is popular in other words

52:46that he has an audience and that is what

52:50is more important maybe he's not the

52:53best messenger for this message but the

52:55message is popular and the message is

52:59out there to be

53:00heard and

53:02um uh I found it interesting that this

53:06theme of were we betrayed by the

53:09West not unique to him and it was raised

53:12at the Munich peace conference re uh

53:15sorry Munich security conference

53:17recently by none other than zilinski

53:21himself he said you know if uh perish

53:26the

53:26thought that the West is not in fact our

53:30strategic Ally but if it isn't then well

53:34we won't be their strategic Ally either

53:37so take back the

53:39West you know cutting off your nose to

53:42spite your face

53:44but I imagine that's about the level of

53:47thinking that is rather characteristic

53:50to the

53:52density I mean

53:55we we I mean I think it is not

53:57impossible we could see a negotiation

53:59and I think this is between the

54:01ukrainians and the Russians I I I

54:04actually would go further I don't think

54:08it is impossible that we could see a

54:11Reconciliation between the ukrainians

54:14and the Russians um that still leaves

54:17the larger question however of what

54:21happens in the relationship between

54:23Russia and the West and the general

54:27peace in Europe because if there is a

54:30Reconciliation or a peace of any kind um

54:34between the Russians and the

54:36ukrainians people in the west in the

54:39United States but unfortunately and

54:42disastrously also in Europe will see

54:46this as a defeat and they might be very

54:50resistant to what you were suggesting of

54:53you know joining IND discussions about a

54:59wider better relationship a longer term

55:03relationship because that would in

55:06effect amount to an

55:08admission that you know their power has

55:11limits and that their defeat is somehow

55:16irreversible how does one address this

55:19problem that at the moment there seems

55:22to be such a strong Elite

55:26consensus in the west about Russia is it

55:30something that only time can change

55:33because I do sometimes wonder whether

55:36that is really what we have to wait

55:40for well I I I used to think so but each

55:46generation I learned by reading gon's

55:50book on russophobia and um Russian

55:55Western eyes written in

56:011990 by Berkeley

56:04historian Martin

56:08Malia that this uh

56:13re constitution of the theme of an

56:17eternal Russian

56:19threat is one of the ways in which

56:23Western identity

56:26is in fact

56:29constituted may be an elemental aspect

56:34of our

56:39identity even though I would argue that

56:42our

56:43cultures are not identical but they

56:48interlock and

56:50interact on many historical Psych

56:55logical religious

56:58levels but it does appear very important

57:02to important sections of the western

57:08Elite to consolidate their identity

57:12their their ID by creating an an

57:17opposing image an image of evil which is

57:21a western image but everything that we

57:24do not want want to be and therefore by

57:27contrast being ourselves to everything

57:30we do not want to be we are this is what

57:33we are and this process

57:37continues helplessly because we are

57:40indeed so close and the connections as

57:43soon as you get below the superficial

57:47political rhetoric are so obvious I mean

57:51every every cultural historian uh many

57:54of of whom uh during the after the

57:57Russian Revolution wound up teaching

58:01from Russia escaped from Russia on that

58:03famous philosopher's boat and uh wound

58:07up teaching at at sbon in Oxford and

58:10other Berlin univers Berlin major

58:13Western institutions and it was obvious

58:16that they shared this the same cultural

58:20values and and had brought these values

58:23with them and were building these

58:24Bridges

58:25I remember a quote by Ivan buan uh in

58:28his 1930s Nobel uh acceptance speeches

58:33he said we are not in uh Exile he said

58:37we are on a mission it actually Rhymes

58:40in

58:42Russia we are on a mission to the West

58:46now he understood that mission I think

58:48um to be here's here's who the the true

58:51Russia the real Russia is to some extent

58:55we're still on that mission today uh our

58:58mission is to alert I whole westerners

59:03to how much uh they are themselves

59:06Russians and they are part of our common

59:09European Heritage in common European

59:12culture let me address that was a long

59:15preamble to uh your point of how can we

59:20get Beyond this well in fact

59:25um there is the broader cultural

59:28discourse but which is a problem and

59:31needs to be tackled has to be tackled by

59:33people like like you and I who write

59:36books and write essays and point out the

59:39obvious and to some extent this is being

59:42done and has always been done and will

59:43continue to be done but

59:47politicians have the ability because of

59:50their bully pulpit to move this process

59:54forward

59:55in the political thinking of the elite

59:58much faster and more

01:00:00dramatically and that has the

01:00:04possibility of happening if the right

01:00:07people are elected right now we have a

01:00:11political Elite that is conditioned or

01:00:15that is convin and that has convinced

01:00:17itself that Russia is an inveterate

01:00:21enemy and it obviously was not hard to

01:00:25convince them that this is a

01:00:29longstanding historical tradition that

01:00:31they weren't aware of as soon as the

01:00:34current hostilities

01:00:36began but even as that discourse

01:00:40currently dominates in the west and in

01:00:43Europe we do have opposing

01:00:46voices I in in all countries in Germany

01:00:52in France used to be in in but they're

01:00:54not part of the formal Coalition so

01:00:57they're keeping quiet about their

01:01:00personal

01:01:05reservations England I think less so

01:01:08although there are a few interesting and

01:01:10and articulate voices like Lord Robert

01:01:12skeli in the House of Lords uh making

01:01:15this point as well arguing that well we

01:01:19may not like this or that about Russia

01:01:22but if we are to have peace then need

01:01:25to have

01:01:28negotiations um in order to establish a

01:01:31common framework for

01:01:33coexist and this simple phrase Mutual

01:01:39coexistence which was which entered into

01:01:43our political discourse during Theon it

01:01:46seems to me could easily be

01:01:49revive doesn't mean that we agree it

01:01:51doesn't mean we're moral equivalents it

01:01:54doesn't you know we we leave all of that

01:01:56aside and simply say let us learn to

01:01:59coexist with one

01:02:01another and again that is what I

01:02:04essentially hear from Putin says

01:02:08actually I don't like you either you in

01:02:12the west and we will certainly have our

01:02:16differences and we're headed in

01:02:18different directions right now but that

01:02:20doesn't mean we have to drag the whole

01:02:24world down with us so let us

01:02:27coexist so far the current Western Elite

01:02:30is saying no we cannot coexist you must

01:02:36die uh which is an impossible Prospect I

01:02:40think without killing everyone in the

01:02:42West in the

01:02:44same in that same

01:02:47action but should the

01:02:53opposition or these minority voices gain

01:02:57ground in subsequent

01:03:00elections and achieve the prominence

01:03:03that they currently have in countries

01:03:06like

01:03:07Slovakia and

01:03:10Hungary I see a lot of potential

01:03:14for re for Shifting the discourse in

01:03:19positive ways at least as far as

01:03:22coexistence if not Beyond

01:03:25on but let's

01:03:27say that's Fantastical hope and that's

01:03:31not going to happen What do we do if the

01:03:34current majority hostile to Russia eager

01:03:39to see it defeated

01:03:42persists well we see what is happening

01:03:45already in the surveys that were

01:03:48conducted this year for the Munich

01:03:50security conference Russia which was at

01:03:52the top of everyone's list as potential

01:03:55disruptor and danger last year has

01:03:59fallen out of the top

01:04:02five dangers for all I think but three

01:04:07countries and the United States and I

01:04:09believe Great

01:04:11Britain and of course the media has much

01:04:14to do with

01:04:16that but for the rest uh Russia is

01:04:20essentially the Russian threat is now

01:04:23essentially an

01:04:25afterthought ask your friends to name

01:04:28the top five things in the world that

01:04:30they are worried about and they'll come

01:04:33up with all sorts of things if they can

01:04:35come up with even five

01:04:37issues and of course there's a whole

01:04:39list of issues that that people mention

01:04:42in the long run to actually think and

01:04:44articulate the top five in the time you

01:04:46get to five you know you've got four

01:04:49more important issues that you're

01:04:50worried about and want to spend money on

01:04:53and you're not going to support spending

01:04:56another hundred billion dollar on the

01:04:58fifth item on the list and that's

01:05:01especially true for the United States

01:05:05so if Russia in fact just continues to

01:05:09do what it does and fulfills what it

01:05:13says it its objectives are which is to

01:05:18excuse me pacify Ukraine

01:05:21but provide no further threat to Nato

01:05:27itself my question is given this logical

01:05:32tendency of the

01:05:35population to diminish things that are

01:05:38not to to have things Reed that are not

01:05:42having an immediate impact on their

01:05:45well-being how are you going to argue

01:05:47for a 10year increase in

01:05:50spending when the threat is obviously

01:05:53not Material realize it this is a very

01:05:56difficult dilemma in a democracy and I

01:05:59think in the long run one the

01:06:01democracies cannot sustain if they're

01:06:04democracy that is to say they have to

01:06:07listen to the people and uh basically

01:06:10pay lip service to the Russian threat

01:06:14but in fact shift their uh shift their

01:06:19resources to what people are truly

01:06:21concerned about and that is again if

01:06:25Russia fulfills what it says its

01:06:28objectives are uh and not attack NATO

01:06:31and or threaten it in any way then uh

01:06:35that that danger Will quickly recede in

01:06:38the minds of the western

01:06:43public I'm wondering though if

01:06:45it's again we can't go back to the way

01:06:47things War but if the prospect of of

01:06:51getting along with Russia is less

01:06:53problema IC now because in the past when

01:06:56Russia's main objective was to create

01:06:59this greater Europe to connect closer

01:07:01with the Europe and especially Germany

01:07:03uh this of course was always problematic

01:07:06especially for the United States because

01:07:09and Russia integrated into Europe would

01:07:11of course uh begin to dissolve some of

01:07:13the alliance systems which uh gives this

01:07:17leading role to the United States and

01:07:18all the economic loyalties that comes

01:07:20with it but at the moment well since 20

01:07:244 and especially since

01:07:262022 we see a very different Russia now

01:07:29it's the Russia that has committed

01:07:31itself almost completely to the east now

01:07:33in terms of how it expects its Economic

01:07:37Development to go so it's um it it

01:07:40doesn't really see any future anymore in

01:07:41the west and just the relationship

01:07:43between Germany and Russia which would

01:07:45be the the center of any Russian

01:07:48integration with Europe This is now

01:07:50completely destroyed I think this uh

01:07:53this is the worst the relationship has

01:07:54been in so many decades so I I just

01:07:58think maybe it will make things uh

01:08:01easier given that they no longer have an

01:08:04interest in in Europe and uh this is a

01:08:08head for the former head of the Russia

01:08:10international Affairs Council uh I

01:08:13forgot his name now

01:08:17Andre yeah yeah he he wrote this

01:08:19interesting piece once where he pointed

01:08:21out that maybe Russia falling out of

01:08:23love with the West can be a positive

01:08:25thing because once it had this interest

01:08:29to be a part of the west but it was

01:08:30rejected over and over this fuels a lot

01:08:32of resentment and his argument was

01:08:34essentially now that it has lost its

01:08:35interest it might be more easy to make

01:08:39have an amicable divorce instead of uh

01:08:42you

01:08:43know fighting all these things now I'm

01:08:45not sure if this will play out this way

01:08:47I was just wondering your perspectives

01:08:48you think it will help or

01:08:50undermine uh a future approach with the

01:08:52West the fact that Russia has chosen a

01:08:55Eastern path

01:08:56now russan Russia has reoriented its

01:09:01foreign policy

01:09:04priorities uh ACC caus the force majour

01:09:07because it had to not because it wanted

01:09:12to and at the same time that its

01:09:16strategic

01:09:18interests

01:09:19plausibly lie in the east

01:09:25its cultural

01:09:28identity still firmly resides in

01:09:34Europe now I say this and I understand

01:09:37not everyone agrees with

01:09:40me um the so-called eurasianist strand

01:09:44but I am not in favor of eurasianist

01:09:47thinking I am a Russian

01:09:50westernized and um as such however I I

01:09:54do not

01:09:56um glorify or look up to the West that's

01:10:00I see the West is needing to learn a lot

01:10:03from Russia to

01:10:08recapture

01:10:10it's its completeness to to reconstitute

01:10:14itself for the

01:10:17better because European culture without

01:10:20Russian culture is damaged it's l

01:10:25and um so both sides need each other in

01:10:29my opinion and would go well to do would

01:10:32do well to go back to a more Byzantine

01:10:37model of European

01:10:39identity uh in which the eastern and

01:10:43western halves of the continent looked

01:10:46to each other as Alexander Herson the

01:10:49great revolutionary writer Russian

01:10:52revolutionary writer

01:10:54said westernizers and flop files looked

01:10:59like the Russian Eagle in two different

01:11:01directions but their heartbeat as one

01:11:04that heart is a European heart cannot be

01:11:07otherwise no one thinks of Russia as an

01:11:09Asian nation that that is just

01:11:12inconceivable in terms of intellectual

01:11:15history anyone who knows Russian culture

01:11:18at all understands that so Russia has a

01:11:22a role to play has much to expand its

01:11:25resources 70% or more of them that it's

01:11:31um that its power resides rests on are

01:11:36in fact east of the urals and in and

01:11:40and and and in Siberia and the the Far

01:11:47East but um 70% of its population is in

01:11:52European Russia and it Remains the

01:11:54largest European country both in terms

01:11:56of population and

01:11:59territory and our economy as well oh and

01:12:02I would say that as

01:12:05I I don't hear anyone well there are

01:12:08people but I don't hear

01:12:10Putin

01:12:13saying we do not want to have dealings

01:12:18with

01:12:19Europe we are willing I I hear him say

01:12:23we are will willing to have as good

01:12:25relations with Europe as they wish to

01:12:28have with us the premise

01:12:31being uh do we see each other as equal

01:12:35and do we respect each other's

01:12:37interests and in that sense Russia's

01:12:40relationship to Europe is no different

01:12:43from its relationship to its neighbors

01:12:45in the South or its neighbors in the

01:12:47East only its neighbors to the south and

01:12:51east are willing to have relations on

01:12:55that basis whereas for its neighbors in

01:12:57the west they see themselves somehow

01:13:02Superior

01:13:07to

01:13:08interest I I just wanted to say we

01:13:11coming to Britain I mean it is certainly

01:13:14true that Britain at the moment

01:13:16anti-russian feeling is I mean off the

01:13:19scale and you will find a few people who

01:13:22speak out against it but there are very

01:13:24few but it has not always been so and um

01:13:29a little while ago for example I just

01:13:32happened to come across a video of the

01:13:35trip in

01:13:361967 of Alexa casan to Britain and he

01:13:40was very very it's very

01:13:43relaxed visit he meets the Prime

01:13:46Minister he goes to Downing Street he

01:13:47meets politicians he goes to the Palace

01:13:50he meets the Queen he has tea with the

01:13:52queen it it the whole mood and it's a

01:13:55British news rail is a very very relaxed

01:13:59one very different from other

01:14:01interactions with Russian leaders since

01:14:04then the thing about that visit is of

01:14:07course it happened at a time when the

01:14:10situation in Europe was extremely stable

01:14:14I mean we had a situation where I mean

01:14:17obviously Europe was divided into

01:14:19blocks but a kind of

01:14:24balance had been

01:14:26found

01:14:28and nobody really felt threatened by the

01:14:33other so casan is able to come to London

01:14:38and there isn't this sense of edginess

01:14:41and anger and panic about his visit and

01:14:46it seems to me that in order to achieve

01:14:50a sort of

01:14:51long-term relationship a more friendly

01:14:54relationship between Russia and the West

01:14:56what one has to seek ultimately is some

01:15:00kind of return to stability a a a

01:15:03genuine sense of stability in relations

01:15:07between Russians and West Europeans and

01:15:10Russia and the United States such as

01:15:12there was in the 60s and such as there

01:15:15was during the Dayton period and this

01:15:18takes me back exactly to the point that

01:15:20you were saying earlier in the program

01:15:23about the fact that things are changing

01:15:26the world is reshaping there is this

01:15:29period of great stress because things

01:15:32are changing in a way that leaves

01:15:35westerners very

01:15:37uncertain perhaps once we get through

01:15:40this period of you know uncertainty and

01:15:43fear and we get back to a more stable

01:15:45situation again we'll be able to have a

01:15:48time like we did in the 60s I can just

01:15:51remember that time by the way and it

01:15:53wasn't just casan it was the time you

01:15:54know when there were cultural exchanges

01:15:58and all kinds of things going on at that

01:16:01a situation where there is a

01:16:03finally a more relaxed atmosphere Al

01:16:06together and people are able to

01:16:08communicate and talk and there isn't

01:16:12this great fear about the Russians in

01:16:14the East

01:16:19anymore the name names among British

01:16:22histor Ians who contributed a great deal

01:16:27to I think a proper

01:16:29understanding of Russian culture in the

01:16:32context of European culture for English

01:16:35readers we

01:16:38have I think it was C Cambridge

01:16:41Cambridge Dimitri balensi yeah

01:16:44absolutely we obviously have BH Summoner

01:16:48great histories I grew up

01:16:50on and um today

01:16:53we have of course Richard

01:16:57Saka I also uh believe although I

01:17:02haven't I'm not that familiar with her

01:17:04work uh the cultural historian Rachel

01:17:07Ponsky and um Robert skeli who doesn't

01:17:12write exclusively on Russia but always

01:17:14does so with a plum oh and um at Emanuel

01:17:20College uh Professor Lane

01:17:24yes

01:17:25l so uh

01:17:29stability yes but

01:17:32stability is earned it's not

01:17:36granted it has to be some

01:17:39extent

01:17:41imposed in other

01:17:43words why are you willing to have stable

01:17:48relations with me if you think you're

01:17:51all that different from me if you could

01:17:55you

01:17:56would you would oppress me you would

01:18:00deny me any influence but the reason

01:18:05you uh

01:18:07accept equality and stability with me is

01:18:11because you fear the consequences of not

01:18:13granting

01:18:15me

01:18:16that and that is what I

01:18:19think that quality of understanding that

01:18:23not granting

01:18:25respect leads

01:18:28to

01:18:29instability in the relationship over a

01:18:33long period of time and to resentments

01:18:37is exactly what was lost after the end

01:18:41after the collapse of the Soviet

01:18:44Union we read it I was just reading the

01:18:49memos that have been released I think

01:18:51earlier this month

01:18:54by strobe talot as as a deputy secretary

01:18:58of state and he says yes uh of course

01:19:01you know Russia would want to be part of

01:19:03NATO but we can't have that because we

01:19:06won the war and we would be granting

01:19:09them a seat at the table why should we

01:19:13ah well and now you have the result and

01:19:17unfortunately that

01:19:19mentality

01:19:21continued after Russia was no longer on

01:19:25its knees beginning to rebuild had

01:19:28rebuilt and is now reconstituting the

01:19:31world order in its own

01:19:34image just we're at the incipient levels

01:19:37but that's clearly the objective I

01:19:40think of the Russian leadership today

01:19:44and it would like to sell that objective

01:19:47to the rest of the bricks and I think

01:19:50that's

01:19:51what the current Russian presidency this

01:19:54year's Russian presidency of the bricks

01:19:56uh will we will see more of that uh

01:19:58theme emerging there really is no way

01:20:01back but by saying there is no way back

01:20:04Russia means we need to find a different

01:20:07way forward and we're willing to show

01:20:09you that way China is reluctant to do so

01:20:12because it has s such great investments

01:20:15in the current world order but it is

01:20:18receptive India like I said all the rest

01:20:22of the bricks sttion are receptive to

01:20:23this idea but they're not ready to jump

01:20:26on board the West is helping you know in

01:20:30all in all sorts of ways to to encourage

01:20:34this this abandonment of the West

01:20:37unfortunately not it's not doesn't see

01:20:40that it is sawing off the branch that

01:20:44its own world order is City and that's

01:20:47very very unfortunate so mutual um

01:20:51stability is going to be forced upon the

01:20:55West the West is not going to accept it

01:20:58voluntarily

01:21:01and we can hope that it

01:21:04amounts u in the long run to not much

01:21:07more than saber R although that's not

01:21:11what the war in Ukraine is by any means

01:21:13the war in Ukraine is a disastrous

01:21:16conflict in Europe but it is especially

01:21:19disaster for Russia and Ukraine which is

01:21:22why the of them need to sit at the table

01:21:24and feel this RI between

01:21:28them stability and peace though in the

01:21:30realist Theory would require two main

01:21:33thing which would be a both a balance of

01:21:35power and a desire to preserve status

01:21:38quo I think what makes this situation so

01:21:41difficult to resolve is well first of

01:21:43all there's no balance of power but

01:21:45beyond this you have this now a rivalry

01:21:47for world order we have for example NATO

01:21:50pulling towards restoring unipolarity

01:21:52while Russians are pushing for

01:21:54multipolarity but also the willingness

01:21:57for status quo because the the you know

01:22:00we always had a bit of propaganda on

01:22:01both sides but what's happening now is

01:22:04something very different this is a

01:22:06really Fierce resentment and you know we

01:22:08spoke previously about aroic and he had

01:22:10a had another interesting comment and he

01:22:13he was suggest suggesting well not

01:22:15suggesting very explicitly saying that

01:22:17ukrainians have been heavily

01:22:18propagandized and he he made this he

01:22:20proposed an exercise that if you can't

01:22:22explain the position of your adversary

01:22:25if you can't make yourself articulated

01:22:27honestly then you have been propag

01:22:29propagandized and I would say this also

01:22:31applies to the West I mean try to

01:22:33explain the position of Russia in any

01:22:35audience in the west and see the fierce

01:22:38attacks you will be subjected to there's

01:22:40no no one is permitted to even explain

01:22:43the Russian position anymore so this is

01:22:45this makes me quite pessimistic that we

01:22:48can find a solution but of course once

01:22:51uh balance of power would store itself

01:22:53one would assume that perhaps uh the the

01:22:57the rhetoric The Narrative the you know

01:22:59the moral entrapment if you will that

01:23:01all of this would U begin to resolve

01:23:03itself but uh I'm not sure if that would

01:23:06be too much of an optimistic view

01:23:10so there are different ways to approach

01:23:13the concept of balance of power in my

01:23:16opinion being more of a social

01:23:19constructivist I think we are not

01:23:21talking about something objective but

01:23:23about the perception of

01:23:25balance and we have a problem here in

01:23:29that the West thinks it has the

01:23:32advantage on all these indic indicators

01:23:37of power whereas Russia argues

01:23:42today that it is not the equivalent of

01:23:45the west but it can balance the West in

01:23:49many ways and therefore has an

01:23:51equivalent

01:23:53power of sorts not a direct equivalence

01:23:56economy to economy military to military

01:23:58but when one considers resources

01:24:01connections all these things the two

01:24:04sides are much more imbalance and that

01:24:08that balance is in Russia's perspective

01:24:11perspective of Russian leadership that

01:24:13balance is likely to grow in Russia's

01:24:16favor over time even though they are now

01:24:20somewhat slightly below the West but the

01:24:23failure to recognize that as the reality

01:24:27is very much a construction of our

01:24:30social media you could in fact make a

01:24:34simple argument

01:24:36that if one made the argument that the

01:24:40sides are in balance and need to respect

01:24:42each other's interests on that premise

01:24:45alone you would have a completely

01:24:47different political discourse between

01:24:49Russia and the West because that was in

01:24:51fact

01:24:53the argument that Kissinger made for

01:24:56dant in the early 1970s it was it was

01:25:00not that we are any closer morally or

01:25:02politically or conceptually is that we

01:25:05have no choice because of the balance of

01:25:07power we have reached parity so as soon

01:25:09as a western politician says you know

01:25:11what we have parity with Russia and we

01:25:15cannot ignore it that is by the way one

01:25:17of the arguments that many of the peace

01:25:19activists make is that well remember

01:25:21nuclear weapons

01:25:23let's not let's not ignore the danger

01:25:26that nuclear weapons pose if that became

01:25:29more a part of our actual political

01:25:32discourse it would it would transform

01:25:36rapidly so stability the second aspect

01:25:39is stability and you're right right now

01:25:43both sides Define stability differently

01:25:47but Russia is aiming not for instability

01:25:51Russia is aiming for a new stability

01:25:54which it argues is a multipolar world

01:25:56and that a multi-polar world will be

01:25:59more stable than either a unipolar or

01:26:02bipolar world so that that is the

01:26:05argument and again that is um a

01:26:10respectable intellectual and academic

01:26:13argument to make so if one turn that

01:26:16equation around we have very much I

01:26:19think a a plausibly realist way forward

01:26:23in this relationship which is one

01:26:26recognize that an essential equivalence

01:26:30of power if not balance of power already

01:26:35exists between Russia and the

01:26:38West uh think of the failure

01:26:41of the failure of sanctions as a

01:26:44manifestation of that and secondly that

01:26:48stability in fact is to be found in a

01:26:52multipolar world not a unipolar world I

01:26:55think both of those me those arguments

01:26:58resonate

01:26:59well in countries outside the

01:27:02West I'm glad you brought up the

01:27:04sanctions because I think this is

01:27:06actually a very vital point of this um

01:27:09because one of the most interesting

01:27:11things over the last couple of weeks if

01:27:14you follow the British media is that

01:27:17suddenly been an acceptance that the

01:27:19sanctions have failed and that Russian

01:27:22economy is turning out to be much more

01:27:25stable and strong than it was assumed to

01:27:29be so we've had we first have an article

01:27:32in the financial times there's a

01:27:34followup article in the guardian this

01:27:37morning you have an article saying

01:27:40exactly the same thing in perhaps the

01:27:43most strident anti-russian newspaper of

01:27:47all which is the Daily Telegraph you

01:27:49know that Russia has absorbed the

01:27:53sanctions blow and interestingly enough

01:27:56it actually quotes U an an actually a

01:28:00very well-known analyst here from the

01:28:02Royal United Services Institute man

01:28:05called Richard Connelly and he says that

01:28:08in fact not only has Russia absorbed the

01:28:11sanctions blow but those who think that

01:28:15the sanctions will have a long-term

01:28:18effect are probably wrong the experience

01:28:22of sanctions is over time their effect

01:28:26Fades so that already changes the

01:28:30perception it says to people in London

01:28:33and you know in Britain I think as in

01:28:37most countries political leaders take

01:28:39their ideas from the

01:28:41media be straightforward about this it

01:28:44tells them that this is not going to

01:28:49be a successful sanctions War as they

01:28:53had previously expected that it would be

01:28:56and that already changes the

01:28:58whole understanding of where we're going

01:29:02going forward so if this is an

01:29:06economically stable country with a

01:29:08resilient economy and a strong Science

01:29:11and Industry and all of that then of

01:29:13course you have to take it seriously and

01:29:16it ceases to

01:29:18be you know the gas station masquerade

01:29:22as a country which so many politicians

01:29:24talked about and then if you have to

01:29:27take it seriously you have to talk to it

01:29:29and then when you start to talk to it

01:29:31things begin to become possible so I I

01:29:35I'm actually strangely enough I'm

01:29:37slightly more hopeful um um about this I

01:29:41mean I I hadn't expected these articles

01:29:43to trickle out and of course they've all

01:29:47come following the shock of the failure

01:29:52last year of the um War the way the war

01:29:56was being conducted in Ukraine

01:30:00so perhaps we're at the beginning of

01:30:03something and the beginning of a change

01:30:06anyway I wanted to make that point I I I

01:30:09think I'm essentially done but I I just

01:30:11wanted to say this I I have noticed

01:30:14these articles coming out in Britain one

01:30:17after the other in all the big

01:30:20newspapers that's very interesting

01:30:22though because I remember in 2014 after

01:30:24Russia took back Crimea Henry Kissinger

01:30:27he was making this argument that if we

01:30:30consider rush to be a great power then

01:30:32we have to find a way of harmonizing our

01:30:34interests with it uh and thus we have to

01:30:38stop this discourse about how to defeat

01:30:40the Russians and instead how to live

01:30:42with them that is if we consider them a

01:30:44great power which he obviously did and

01:30:47as you Alexander pointed out this we

01:30:50obviously didn't because we keep

01:30:51referring to it as to

01:30:54metaphorical gas station masquerading as

01:30:56a country and this was kind of

01:30:58entrenched in all all ideas and rhetoric

01:31:01because obviously Russia should have no

01:31:03say in what happens uh the security

01:31:06Arrangements in Ukraine and NATO should

01:31:09no say about you know NATO's expansion

01:31:12even though it's the largest country in

01:31:13Europe and it should have no say at all

01:31:15about European security and uh I think

01:31:18that this this this assumption that it's

01:31:21so weak that it's not a great power so

01:31:23we don't have to adjust to it I think

01:31:25this has fallen apart in this war as

01:31:27well because uh you know we thought we

01:31:29could defeat the Russians on the

01:31:30battlefield with you sending weapons and

01:31:33ukrainians at them uh we thought you

01:31:35know we could crush their economy in a

01:31:36week with sanctions we thought we could

01:31:38mobilize the International Community

01:31:40politically against them but all of this

01:31:41failed so maybe one good thing can come

01:31:45out of this horrible War would be that

01:31:47we would uh more or less go a little

01:31:49back to Kissinger's argument in 200 14

01:31:52okay now we come to terms it is a great

01:31:54power which by definition is you can

01:31:56throw everything what the kitens think

01:31:58at it and it will still be able to

01:32:00absorb the punches now if this is the

01:32:02case perhaps policies would change as

01:32:05well and uh some more I guess political

01:32:08interest or willingness to harmonize

01:32:10interest and accommodate it to some

01:32:12extent even though obviously we're not

01:32:14going to have any warm feeling towards

01:32:16each other for the next couple of

01:32:18decades

01:32:20probably I'll just

01:32:22okay no I was just going to say that

01:32:25again I was thinking in terms of silver

01:32:28Lin Silver Linings to horrible

01:32:32situations that war

01:32:34creates one of them should be for

01:32:39intellectuals to really come to terms

01:32:42with the fact that we do not understand

01:32:46how sanctions

01:32:49work we have nothing but a theory that

01:32:53has proven to

01:32:57not uh not correspond to reality and

01:33:01this over more than 40 Years of

01:33:06applications of sanctions throughout the

01:33:07world so we had smaller examples of the

01:33:11failure of sanctions over time in

01:33:14various countries South Africa and other

01:33:17countries that were targeted

01:33:19Venezuela Iran targeted by sanctions and

01:33:22now we have the real motherload of

01:33:25evidence that sanctions a do not work

01:33:29and B do not accomplish what politicians

01:33:35promise US they will accomplish and as a

01:33:38result however we never question or

01:33:41revisit the premises of that policy that

01:33:44is the definition of

01:33:46insanity and I think as academics we

01:33:48have an obligation to bring that point

01:33:52more and more to the Public's attention

01:33:55that when a politician says these are

01:33:59the sanctions that we're going to impose

01:34:02they should be asked in order to

01:34:03accomplish what and in what time frame

01:34:08exactly otherwise what are you signing

01:34:11this up for exactly except the Prelude

01:34:14to

01:34:16war we're still far away from that

01:34:20discussion absolutely I I I just I just

01:34:23interested I think you might be

01:34:25interested to see what Connelly says

01:34:26Richard Connelly an expert on Russian

01:34:28economy at the Royal United Services

01:34:31Institute says that optis optimism about

01:34:35how hard sanctions would bite show a

01:34:39lack of understanding in the west and a

01:34:43failure to learn from what happened in

01:34:452014 during the an annexation of crime a

01:34:48which is exactly the point that you've

01:34:49just made nck Nichol Nicholas and he

01:34:52goes on to say I think it was

01:34:55arrogance I think it was also

01:34:58ineptitude now bear in mind this is

01:35:00appearing in the Daily Telegraph which a

01:35:03year ago was publishing articles by

01:35:07Economist from Yale I'm not going to

01:35:08name it who was saying that it was all

01:35:11smok and mirrors so you know it's quite

01:35:14a

01:35:16shift right but I'm sorry to see that he

01:35:20leaves the door are open to the

01:35:22possibility of more effective sanctions

01:35:26I believe as a matter of

01:35:29reality sanctions are never effective

01:35:32they do not they are never tied to

01:35:35policy outcomes that is the proof that

01:35:38they that no one expects them even the

01:35:40people Implement never expect them to be

01:35:42effective it is merely a sop to the

01:35:47public Hey listen we're doing something

01:35:49leave us alone I I think I'm I think I'm

01:35:52slight just just to quickly say I think

01:35:54I'm slightly uh giving a wrong

01:35:56impression because I'm saying as I said

01:35:59these things out of context my

01:36:01impression is that he's somebody who has

01:36:03completely lost belief in sanctions

01:36:06certainly as far as Russia is concerned

01:36:08as I said he does go on later in that

01:36:10same article to say that the Russians

01:36:13are adapting to the sanctions and

01:36:14there's every reason to think that they

01:36:16will continue to do so so um the the

01:36:19thing about sanctions with Russia is

01:36:23that the country not only has survived

01:36:26them but it is

01:36:29growing growing even as they're

01:36:32happening other economies have been

01:36:34affected adversely by sanctions but it

01:36:38hasn't worked in the same way with

01:36:40Russia and that I think is part of the

01:36:42point that he's trying to make too with

01:36:44sanctions so I think well as yeah

01:36:47Nikolai correctly points out it's that

01:36:49the purpose of course imposing EC

01:36:51economic pain is in order to convince

01:36:53them to make political changes or policy

01:36:56changes but uh but I think in this war

01:36:59though you know it's it seems like a key

01:37:01goal in itself as uh well many American

01:37:05leaders stated and the Stenberg by the

01:37:07way was to degrade Russia to merely

01:37:09weaken it so economic decline in its own

01:37:12was seemed to be an objective not m not

01:37:15not necessarily to Foster policy changes

01:37:18but but even at this point of course uh

01:37:21it has now very objectively failed but

01:37:23I'm still optimistic now not about

01:37:26sanctions of course because as you

01:37:28correctly point out this uh this has

01:37:30never really properly worked but I think

01:37:32especially the last 30 years it has been

01:37:35well sorry more recently it works even

01:37:37less because at least in the 90s when

01:37:39there was one Center of economic power

01:37:41uh sanctions would have bring great pain

01:37:44but these days we see sanctions now that

01:37:47this alternative po of power it mer

01:37:50isolates the belligerent who's imposing

01:37:53the sanctions as we saw with you know

01:37:54the Europeans we can't diversify away

01:37:57from Russian energy we you know bite

01:37:58through third parties more expensive uh

01:38:01you know to feel like we're doing

01:38:03something but the Russians are they've

01:38:05been able to diversify so sanctions

01:38:07function even less under multipolarity

01:38:10than unipolarity but the reason I'm

01:38:12optimistic which is what I was coming to

01:38:15was uh uh you know if you would have

01:38:17said two years ago sanctions don't work

01:38:19it's going to impact the European more

01:38:22than the Russians which I remember I did

01:38:24two years ago uh it was called Russian

01:38:26propaganda and I would be a Russian

01:38:28propagandist for saying it but these

01:38:30days now you see it accepted in the

01:38:32media so we're we're kind of slowly

01:38:35accepting reality that U that uh we yeah

01:38:40we we can't defeat the Russians with

01:38:41sanctions either and yeah back to my

01:38:44former point and if we accept this then

01:38:47do can't defeat them and this was kind

01:38:49of like our last chance to knock out

01:38:50Russia then we're going to have to at

01:38:52some point learn to live with them and I

01:38:53think uh again a silver lining as

01:38:58Nikolai would

01:39:01say I think for that to become the

01:39:04mainstream view will require the removal

01:39:07of the current dominant political

01:39:12parties and a shift transfer of

01:39:16government

01:39:18two parties and personalities that

01:39:23are willing

01:39:26to assert the need for conviviality for

01:39:32for coexistence not coexistence with

01:39:36Russia as the premise as the basis of

01:39:39their foreign

01:39:40policy there are such parties but

01:39:44they are still very much in the

01:39:49wings if there's I'm less optimistic

01:39:52than the two of you thank you for making

01:39:55this a more optimistic

01:39:57discussion but um this will take a long

01:40:03time

01:40:04and perhaps even a generational

01:40:08shift again and one of the things that I

01:40:11see as

01:40:13optimistic is that their Elites have to

01:40:18exert a great deal of effort to recreate

01:40:24and maintain hostility

01:40:28coordination and that is expensive and

01:40:33difficult and not as successful there's

01:40:36it's like making a copy of a copy of a

01:40:38copy and each time you make a copy of

01:40:41Hitler the next Hitler the next Hitler

01:40:43the next Hitler next it becomes a parody

01:40:46by the time you know you have the the

01:40:48current sixth it ation of Hitler in in

01:40:53someone people forget even what Hitler

01:40:56actually stood

01:40:57for um which is why you can support aof

01:41:01Battalion and call them Freedom Fighters

01:41:03which is completely

01:41:05absurd so uh my point is it becomes hard

01:41:10and uh the Next Generation we do have

01:41:14the opportunity to write for them to to

01:41:18speak to them anything

01:41:21I may be wrong but my sense today that

01:41:24anything we say here no matter how

01:41:27insightful or articulate or even

01:41:30promising as a as a venue for

01:41:34negotiations and and

01:41:37Reconciliation is going to fall on dep

01:41:40ears among the current Elite but I don't

01:41:44sense that among my students I mean I I

01:41:47talk to them they have questions they

01:41:49say what about this what about that and

01:41:51I give them my answers and they go oh

01:41:54that's interesting I hadn't considered

01:41:56that and now I have a broader

01:41:59perspective on events than I was reading

01:42:02in the New York Times or the Daily

01:42:04Telegraph or Deon or whatever but

01:42:08unfortunately um people of of a certain

01:42:13generation of a certain age their

01:42:16worldview is is set as it is and the

01:42:19more the more power they have to wield

01:42:23the more they rely on those on those

01:42:27original

01:42:28instincts uh and are resistant I think

01:42:31to to novel interpretation and new ideas

01:42:35which is why it's very important my

01:42:37opinion to bring new blood into politics

01:42:42early uh and and

01:42:46frequent I like that finish shall we

01:42:50leave it on that note or do any of you

01:42:52have any final comments no I I I think

01:42:54there's

01:42:55been wonderful discussion and I think

01:42:57that I would I think that's a good note

01:42:59to finish as well

01:43:01actually yeah thank you so

01:43:17much

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