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Towards negotiations between Russia & Ukraine/NATO? Nicolai Petro, Alexander Mercouris, Glenn Diesen

The Duran2024-02-25
The Duran#Alex Christoforou#Alexander Mercouris#US news#EU news#Russia news#China news#Geopolitics#GeopoliticalAnalysis#WorldNews#GlobalAffairs#BreakingNews#GlobalEconomy#Nicolai Petro#glenn diesen#nato#russia#putin#zalensky#eu#germany#ukraine
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💫 Short Summary

The video segments discuss the challenges faced during the collapse of the Soviet Union, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the need for diplomatic solutions, and the potential for negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the West. There is an emphasis on the importance of understanding historical traditions, avoiding a 'All or Nothing' strategy, and reconsidering the nation-state system in the current global landscape. The segments highlight the need for stability, peaceful resolutions, and mutual respect in relationships between Russia and the West, as well as the failures of sanctions and the potential for new political perspectives to emerge for coexistence.

✨ Highlights
📊 Transcript
Professor Nikolai Pedro's insights on working for the US State Department during the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Pedro emphasizes the challenges faced during this time and stresses the importance of understanding Russian historical traditions.
He also discusses the resurgence of national identity and religion in Russia.
Despite his knowledge of deeper philosophical traditions, Pedro admits to struggling with the reality of Soviet life during his 10 years in Russia.
Challenges in negotiating an end to the war and defining a new reality post-Soviet Union.
Lack of allies in the West for the Soviet Union break.
Persistence in viewing Russia as the Soviet Union.
Importance of having an exit strategy in the current war.
Uncertainty in treating Putin as the new Hitler without clear implications or actions.
Lack of peaceful alternatives to military victory in Ukraine.
Biden Administration appears opposed to a peaceful settlement in Ukraine.
Western sides are trapped by their rhetoric of achieving victory through recapturing borders.
Negotiations are viewed as surrender, with Russia refusing to agree.
Putin's resistance raises practical challenges due to the disparity in forces.
The need for diplomatic solutions in the conflict in Ukraine.
Pursuing an 'All or Nothing' strategy is risking severe damage to Ukraine daily.
Concern and dismay in Ukraine are growing, highlighting the urgency for negotiation and diplomatic efforts.
It is crucial to shift towards diplomatic solutions and avoid leaving Ukraine with nothing.
Russia's alienation from the West and missed opportunities for collaboration.
Insights from Tucker Carlson's interview reveal Russia's desire to join NATO but being rejected.
Emphasis on the importance of balance and offering concessions in conflict resolution.
Discussion of russophobia and negative perceptions of Russians hindering understanding and cooperation.
Promoting the idea of inviting opponents to be part of the New World Order.
US Cold War strategy focused on defining the enemy as communism rather than Russians.
Negotiations with Russia were hindered by US demands for preconditions, leading to a push for regime change in Moscow and the defeat of Russia.
The moral imperative to support Ukraine joining NATO is compared to Mexico joining a Russian-led alliance.
Despite acknowledging Ukraine's slim chance of winning, the US advocates for continued fighting as a moral obligation.
Voices of dissent within Ukraine offer a potential breakthrough in the current crisis.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is driven by Western interests in fostering NATO-Russia tension to boost military spending.
Some in Ukraine seek to avoid fighting for NATO and instead negotiate with Russia for mutually beneficial relations.
This approach could lead to a shift in Ukrainian politics, challenging the West's influence.
The speaker disagrees with the idea of negotiations solely between Moscow and Washington, emphasizing Ukrainian agency in the process.
Negotiations between Moscow and Washington are unlikely due to American interest in straightforward capitulation.
Russia may be willing to negotiate with Ukraine, but trust is lacking.
Total victory by either side is seen as potentially dangerous, highlighting the need for a negotiated outcome.
Constant interactions occur between senior Ukrainian and Russian officials in the Energy Arena, discussing the flow of Russian gas through Ukraine.
The process of making Russian gas resemble European gas and negotiating pipeline issues is ongoing.
Importance of Direct Dialogue for Negotiation in Ukraine-Russia Relations.
Prisoner exchanges and secretive meetings between Ukraine and Russia lead to public discussions.
Western involvement in promoting peace in the region is deemed crucial.
Incentives such as stability and a return to peace negotiations could encourage Western governments to participate.
The proposal suggests revisiting past ideas and broadening negotiations to include all relevant parties for a pan-European conference to achieve lasting peace in Europe.
Revisiting and reforming the nation state system in response to changing global dynamics.
New world powers like China, Africa, Iran, and Russia impacting the traditional nation state system.
Proposal for a new Congress of Vienna or Treaty of Westphalia to address the role of nation states in the modern world.
George Kennan's arguments for reimagining the international system post-Cold War.
Concerns over far-right influence in Ukraine's political decisions and its effects on negotiations with Russia.
Impact of Senk's weakened hand on negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
Uncertainty of negotiations due to military outcomes and mistake of assuming Russian engagement had ended in 2022.
Emphasis on Russia's military potential and reasons for failure to overwhelm Ukrainian forces.
Possibility of negotiating with Russia, with some Ukrainian leaders advocating for dialogue to heal and rebuild before re-engaging in conflict.
Transformations of Ukrainian nationalists and shifting alliances.
Rhetoric changed based on political circumstances, aligning with Soviets or Nazis.
Emphasis on negotiation and acceptance of dominant power post-conflict.
Mention of informal contacts between individuals from Ukraine and Russia for potential diplomatic discussions.
Insights on practical politics and strategic decision-making among Ukrainian nationalists.
Informal contacts between Ukrainian and Russian individuals have been taking place, potentially leading to significant developments.
There is a sense of war weariness in Ukraine, with a shift in perspective towards the ongoing situation.
Former Ukrainian officials have left the country, with some now residing in Moscow.
Both Ukrainian governments are in contact with various individuals in the government.
The focus is on negotiation and finding a peaceful resolution rather than military victory.
Analysis of moral qualms and survival instincts in decision-making.
Individuals' responses to challenges and opportunities are examined, emphasizing uncertainty and potential outcomes in political situations.
A prominent figure's reinvention and adaptation of rhetoric raise questions about authenticity and political strategy.
Changing perspectives on international conflicts and the impact of foreign powers on regional dynamics are reflected upon.
Reconciliation of religious divisions and reinventing oneself for Western governments.
Different figures express betrayal by the West and question strategic alliances.
Negotiation and reconciliation between Ukrainians and Russians is discussed.
Some nations resist joining discussions for fear of defeat and limitations in power.
The Western perception of Russia as a constant threat shapes Western identity.
The Western Elite creates an opposing image of evil to strengthen their identity.
Shared cultural values between Russia and the West are emphasized, focusing on their common European heritage.
Writers and scholars need to address the cultural discourse to change current perceptions.
Influence of Politicians on Political Thinking and Processes.
Politicians have the ability to shape political thought and accelerate progress.
Differing views on Russia exist in the West and Europe, with some pushing for mutual coexistence for peace.
Minority voices in countries like Slovakia and Hungary could positively impact discourse towards coexistence.
The current Western Elite's hostile stance towards Russia poses obstacles to achieving this vision.
Decrease in concern over Russian threat in recent surveys.
Media influences public perception of global dangers.
Democracies face challenges in resource allocation based on public concerns.
Russia's actions in Ukraine may impact perceived danger levels.
Questions arise about historical tensions and alliance systems in relation to Russia.
Russia has shifted its focus from the West to the East since 2004, potentially leading to a more amicable separation between Russia and the West.
This shift has damaged relationships with Europe but could ease tensions in the long run.
The speaker believes that Russian culture is important to European culture and emphasizes the need for cooperation between Russia and the West.
They suggest a return to a more Byzantine model of European identity where the East and West collaborate for a better future.
The speaker, a Westernized Russian, stresses the importance of mutual learning and cooperation between Russia and the West.
Russia's relationship with Europe is based on mutual respect and equal footing, with Putin expressing willingness to maintain good relations.
Despite current anti-Russian sentiment in Britain, historical interactions between Russian leaders and British officials have been more relaxed.
Alexei Kosygin's visit to Britain in 1967 exemplified this, occurring during a period of stability in Europe when no perceived threats existed among divided blocks.
The visit included meetings with the Prime Minister, politicians, and the Queen, showcasing a different dynamic compared to current tensions.
Importance of stability in relationships between Russia and the West
Emphasis on the need for a more friendly and relaxed atmosphere in relations.
Historical periods of cultural exchanges and communication are mentioned, along with the role of British historians in understanding Russian culture.
Stability is discussed as something that must be earned and imposed to maintain equal and stable relations.
Fear of consequences of not granting equality is suggested as a driving force for accepting stability in relationships.
Impact of the collapse of the Soviet Union on Russia and the world order.
Russia is rebuilding and reshaping the world order in its image post-Soviet Union collapse.
Current Russian leadership aims to promote its objectives to other BRICS countries.
The West is hesitant to accept Russia's shift, leading to mutual instability.
War in Ukraine underscores the need for stability and peace between Russia and Ukraine amidst global power struggles.
Analysis of propaganda and resentment in global politics, focusing on the West's view of Russia.
Discussion on balance of power, with a focus on Russia's perspective on balancing the West in different aspects.
Highlighting the imbalance between Russia and the West in terms of resources and connections.
Social media's influence in preventing the recognition of this imbalance.
The need for mutual respect of interests to improve political discourse between Russia and the West.
The importance of maintaining parity with Russia in terms of nuclear weapons and the danger they pose.
Russia aims for a multipolar world for stability, contrasting with a unipolar or bipolar world.
Sanctions on Russia have failed, with the Russian economy proving to be more stable and strong than assumed.
An analyst suggests that the long-term effects of sanctions are unlikely, changing perceptions in London and beyond.
Importance of economically stable countries with strong Science and Industry.
Need for engaging with these countries and recognizing their resilience.
Hope for a positive shift in approach, with references to articles in Britain and past events involving Russia and Ukraine.
Critique of previous approaches in dealing with Russia and suggestion of harmonizing with great powers like Russia.
Ineffectiveness of Sanctions over 40 Years.
Sanctions in countries like South Africa, Venezuela, and Iran have not achieved their intended goals.
Politicians continue to implement sanctions without questioning their effectiveness.
Academics should raise awareness about the failures of sanctions and challenge policymakers on their unrealistic expectations.
Sanctions on Russia have not achieved the desired outcome and have not weakened the country as intended.
Russia has not only survived but has also grown despite the sanctions imposed on it.
The objective of degrading Russia's economy through sanctions has not been successful.
Sanctions are now less effective in a multipolar world as Russia has diversified its resources.
Recent events have shown that sanctions impact European nations more than Russia, contrary to previous beliefs.
The segment discusses the need for political parties advocating for coexistence with Russia to become mainstream.
The speaker believes that the removal of current dominant political parties is necessary for this shift to occur.
Challenges faced by current elites in maintaining hostility towards Russia are highlighted.
The younger generation is seen as having the potential to adopt a broader perspective on world events and engage in meaningful dialogue for reconciliation.
Importance of bringing new blood into politics early and frequently.
Avoiding resistance to novel interpretations and new ideas in politics.
Participants agree that the discussion has been wonderful.
Decision to finish the conversation on a positive note.
Expression of gratitude for the conversation.