Avdeyevka is collapsing, Zelensky travels to Germany
The Duran2024-02-16
The Duran#Alex Christoforou#Alexander Mercouris#US news#EU news#Russia news#China news#Geopolitics#GeopoliticalAnalysis#WorldNews#GlobalAffairs#BreakingNews#GlobalEconomy#avdiivka battle#scholz#zelensky#bakhmut#navalny#germany#putin#ukraine#john kirby#mike johnson#avdiivka war#donetsk#donbass#crimea#russia news
4K views|5 months ago
💫 Short Summary
The video discusses the collapse of Avdiivka, Ukraine, and the inability of Ukrainian forces to extract themselves, the failure of the Azov Battalion to stabilize the situation, and the report that no fortified lines west of Avdiivka have been built. The Russians have captured key locations, and there are questions about their next moves. The $61 billion aid package for Ukraine is seen as a political effort to keep Zelensky in power but is not enough to change the military situation, as Ukraine is facing a shortage of artillery shells and air defense missiles. The speaker suggests that the US should take the blame for the situation in Ukraine and that Europe is dependent on the US regardless.
✨ Highlights
📊 Transcript
✦
The situation in Avdeevka, Ukraine, is chaotic, with no organized defense and Ukrainian forces struggling to extract themselves.
00:00Ukrainian troops are facing disintegration and are starting to make decisions on their own.
Russian drones and machine guns are attacking Ukrainian troops.
Attempts to pull troops out of Avdeevka are becoming increasingly difficult.
Reports suggest that the Azov Brigade was sent to Avdeevka to stabilize the situation, but they are facing a dire and chaotic situation.
✦
The Asov unit's deployment to AFA may have coincided with the Munich security conference and a rumored Senate vote on the $61 billion aid package.
08:35Zelensky is in Berlin and will attend the Munich security conference.
The Ukrainians are unclear about their next steps in the situation.
The Russians started to break into Avdeevka about two weeks ago.
The Ukrainians failed to pull their troops back from the outlying fortified positions.
The $61 billion aid package for Ukraine was discussed back in the autumn, with the belief that the war would resume in the spring.
✦
The Russians are advancing on all fronts, and there are uncertainties about their next move.
17:11The Ukrainians are facing a formidable adversary in the Russian military.
It is unclear what the Russians will do next, but their actions are expected to be carefully planned.
The Russians are applying pressure on every other part of the front lines as Avdeevka collapses.
The $61 billion aid package for Ukraine is not enough to change the military situation.
Ukraine is facing a shortage of artillery shells and air defense missiles.
✦
The $61 billion aid package for Ukraine is not enough to address the military and conscription challenges.
25:06Ukraine is facing a shortage of artillery shells and air defense missiles.
The military conscription is limited due to the lack of available resources.
The training of inexperienced soldiers takes about a year.
There are concerns that Ukraine's military and political situation may collapse by November 2024.
✦
The speaker suggests letting the media run with the Ukraine story for a month, as Europe is still dependent on the US.
32:00Europe is in a different situation but still dependent on the US.
The US owns the international media.
Biden may take the blame for the Ukraine situation, but it will be forgotten by November.
Europe has burned bridges with Russia and has nowhere else to turn for support.
00:00 all right Alexander let's talk about
00:03 adeva
00:04 collapsing or
00:07 collapsed what do you think um right
00:10 that's a very good question actually we
00:11 somewhere in the middle because the
00:14 situation is utterly chaotic I think if
00:19 we have to be um if we have to be
00:22 objective it has collapsed in the sense
00:25 that there is no as far as I can see no
00:27 real organized defense of this town
00:30 underway at the moment the question is
00:32 no longer can the ukrainians hold on to
00:36 OFA the question is whether they can
00:38 extract their forces from ABA and it's
00:41 clear that they've left it far too late
00:44 and the defense such as it is is now
00:46 becoming incredibly disorganized and in
00:50 attempts to pull troops out of OFA is
00:53 becoming um all bit impossible and that
00:57 um Ukrainian troops in aava are starting
01:00 to understand this in fact probably they
01:03 began to understand it yesterday and
01:06 that you know we're we're starting to
01:08 see essentially a disintegration in
01:11 other words men soldiers taking
01:15 Decisions by themselves trying to cross
01:17 Open Fields being attacked by Russian
01:21 drones and machine guns and that kind of
01:24 thing um other units abandoning
01:26 positions some people continuing to put
01:29 out existence in some places um it looks
01:32 like Communications have completely
01:34 broken down and it as I said it's no
01:37 longer case of the Russians gaining
01:41 overall control of AA I think that's now
01:44 a dum thing it's more a situation as I
01:47 said of trying to decide what to do with
01:51 these thousands perhaps tens of
01:53 thousands for all we know of Ukrainian
01:56 troops who are still there and as I said
01:58 cut off ESS eventally
02:01 surrounded and broken up into various
02:06 you know holdouts and who don't seem to
02:09 know what to do and with Kev itself not
02:13 knowing what to do about them
02:17 either what is uh what is going on with
02:20 these reports specifically via
02:23 Reuters uh which claim that syki is
02:27 sending the azof guys in to AFA as he's
02:31 trying to retreat the the units in AFA
02:34 he's sending these asof guys to try and
02:36 hold on to the city a little bit more
02:38 for a little bit more time what what's
02:41 going on there I mean Reuters is about
02:45 two days late I mean we were getting
02:48 reports about this if you've been
02:49 following you know the situation on the
02:51 ground carefully I think it's about
02:53 three days ago the general tarnavski who
02:56 was the um commander of the Southern
02:59 Group group of forces which a Ukraine
03:01 Southern group of forces which includes
03:04 a afca uh said about three days ago
03:07 three or four days ago that the azof
03:09 Brigade was being sent to AA in order to
03:12 try to stabilize the situation um but of
03:15 course what has happened is that since
03:19 yesterday we've been getting more and
03:21 more reports from the azof Brigade
03:23 itself and the third Brigade as it calls
03:25 itself now um about what they're facing
03:28 in avva and they're describing the
03:30 situation as hell they say that they are
03:33 fighting 360 degrees in other words that
03:36 they're surrounded themselves they are
03:38 saying that they're suffering incredible
03:39 losses they're saying that there are no
03:42 prepared defenses that they can use and
03:46 far from stabilizing the situation it
03:49 looks like they're being sucked in or
03:51 have been sucked in to the engulfing
03:54 chaos so as I said Reuters if he
03:58 published this report three days ago
04:01 they would have reported what was
04:04 actually correct news but I mean now
04:07 it's been overtaken by events that
04:10 operation has failed I mean the attempt
04:13 to use the Azo Battalion to stay Brigade
04:16 rather to stabilize the situation H has
04:19 already collapsed now that begs a number
04:23 of questions is the are the British um
04:27 are the
04:28 British ceing what is going on in
04:33 AA or is it which is much more likely
04:36 that they're still getting information
04:37 from the ukrainians and they're not
04:39 really looking at the actual situation
04:42 on the ground and the where the result
04:44 is that they are themselves
04:47 losing um understanding of just how bad
04:52 and chaotic the situation in AA has now
04:55 become now you know again early this
04:58 morning and indeed continuing throughout
05:00 the day I've been getting more and more
05:02 seeing more and more reports not just
05:05 from Russian sources but from Ukrainian
05:07 ones about Russ Ukrainian troops in OFA
05:11 thousands of men being essentially
05:13 trapped and coming under enormous
05:16 Relentless Russian fire and of the
05:19 Russians continuing advances and
05:21 capturing one location after another now
05:24 yesterday they captured um two major
05:28 fortif ation called the air defense base
05:33 and the chura complex chasha is a Caron
05:38 character it reflects how this place
05:40 looks on a map but it seems to me that
05:44 it's part of the air defense complex I
05:46 suspect was a Soviet era air defense
05:49 complex where surface to a missiles used
05:53 to be based that's my guess I'm not
05:54 going to waste time more on that but
05:56 anyway the Russians captured those
05:58 locations it seems
06:00 that the Ukrainian troops who were there
06:01 were unable to retreat some attempted to
06:05 most of them either surrendered or got
06:08 killed there's reports that the fields
06:11 around these places are littered with
06:13 bodies I mean it really is distressing
06:16 what you're hearing then a couple of
06:18 hours later another
06:20 Ukrainian fortified position called the
06:22 Filtration plant um also fell to the
06:26 Russians the Russians then captured and
06:29 a cafe area which is located somewhere
06:33 to the west of all of these places
06:35 shutting off another Main Road they seem
06:37 to be pushing hard towards further roads
06:39 closing off all the remaining roads as I
06:43 said the AZ of people who actually
06:47 entered
06:48 aftera are already themselves cut off so
06:52 as I said the British Reuters have it
06:55 seems to be got got this wrong or
06:58 they're out of
07:01 date right uh a couple of
07:04 questions what comes after
07:08 OFA I think that's an important uh
07:11 situation to analyze because my
07:14 understanding is that this is the
07:17 last heavily Fortified Area there are
07:20 there fortified areas I'm not saying
07:22 that there aren't areas that are being
07:24 defended or fortified but this was a
07:27 fortress so bahmut G soladar maraan AFA
07:32 was the last big fortress that NATO had
07:37 constructed over 10 years I mean this
07:38 was their staging area for what would
07:41 have been an eventual Invasion into
07:43 dombas which if if you believe some of
07:46 the the reporting and some of the
07:48 analysis from two years ago that's that
07:50 was that was what was eventually uh
07:53 being plant and it was all going to to
07:55 originate from AFA and of course
07:57 everyone knows that fva was the city
07:58 where many missiles were being sent from
08:01 uh from F AF to donet city but what what
08:04 happens
08:05 next um after avva I mean the Russians
08:08 are advancing on all fronts actually
08:10 it's not only avva it's across the
08:13 entire front line and um go going back
08:16 to to sending these units into AA this
08:19 Elite asof unit uh do you think this
08:22 coincides a bit with uh the Munich
08:24 security conference and the fact that
08:26 it's rumored that senin is going to be
08:28 in Munich and perhaps they made one last
08:31 effort to try and hold on to have defa
08:35 at least to get them through the
08:36 conference and perhaps to get them
08:38 through the votes in the in the senate
08:39 in the house for the 61 billion no vote
08:43 is going to take place in the house
08:44 they're going to be in recess now till
08:46 the 20th of February but perhaps the
08:48 stabilization was not so much
08:50 stabilization but hold on for a week or
08:52 two
08:54 longer you're absolutely right now can I
08:56 just say zalinski is actually now in b
09:00 and he's definitely going Munich he's
09:03 gone and I mean that in itself is
09:05 astonishing I mean you'd have thought
09:06 that with a disaster um um you know
09:09 taking place in Ukraine you know you and
09:13 and with what looks increasingly like
09:15 chaos in decision making because it's
09:18 coming back to your underlying question
09:22 it's becoming increasingly clear to me
09:23 that the ukrainians themselves are are
09:26 are absolutely unclear what they should
09:28 do in this situation because they've
09:31 lost this major fortified line but
09:36 zelinsky's Duty so it seems to me as
09:40 president and supreme commanderin-chief
09:45 was in the face of this catastrophe with
09:48 thousands of Ukrainian troops being cut
09:50 off it was to remain in Kiev take assume
09:55 responsibility uh uh help the military
09:57 people do whatever they can to stabilize
10:01 the situation but instead he does what
10:05 he consistently does is done in what he
10:08 consistently does in these situations
10:11 when the situation becomes difficult
10:14 when it becomes dangerous he leaves he
10:17 goes away and you know what is he going
10:19 to do in Berlin what is he going to do
10:22 in munic um which is going to help to
10:26 stabilize the situation now now let's
10:29 let's come back however to your main
10:31 question because I think before we ask
10:34 what the ukrainians might try to do Le
10:37 let's just ask how this whole situation
10:40 has come about now about two weeks ago
10:45 the Russians started to break into aava
10:47 itself um they they were able to capture
10:50 a large area in the South one of the
10:53 main Ukrainian Fort fortifications the
10:55 DAR hunting lodge uh um was r rapidly
10:59 captured it it was clear even then that
11:04 the situation in AA was becoming
11:07 critical now what the ukrainians needed
11:10 to do and I you know this is not you
11:11 don't have to be a military person or a
11:14 military you know expert to understand
11:16 this remember you know I'm not one of
11:18 these things you're not one of these
11:20 things but lots of people were saying
11:22 this they needed to pull their troops
11:26 back from the outlying for fortified
11:29 positions the air defense base the
11:31 Filtration plant all of those places
11:34 bring them back to AFA and then organize
11:37 a fighting withdrawal from AF afka to
11:40 save their men they did exactly the
11:44 opposite they kept their men there they
11:47 engaged in counterattacks which were
11:50 bound to fail the Azor Brigade the third
11:53 Brigade was rushed to the scene and what
11:58 was what would have been a serious
12:02 defeat is now starting to look like a
12:06 catastrophe so why did they do it well
12:09 firstly the ukrainians and you know it's
12:12 easy to just blame zalinski here but one
12:15 gets the sense that all the Ukrainian
12:17 commanders zalinski Zusi who has been in
12:20 overall charge until a couple of you
12:22 know days ago syki as well the new
12:26 Commander they all have this predis
12:29 position to try to defend positions
12:32 after they become undefendable and they
12:34 did the same with OFA they were no doubt
12:37 conscious of the importance of a AFA and
12:41 you're absolutely correct it was the
12:43 main the most heavily fortified position
12:46 of all and it was close to donet city
12:50 and it was important psychologically for
12:53 the ukrainians to control it because
12:56 controlling of DEA meant that they still
12:59 had donet city under siege and they
13:02 might perhaps one day in their own
13:05 imaginations hope to launch an offensive
13:07 from of DEA to recapture donet City so
13:12 there were these emotional things but
13:15 fundamentally I think you are absolutely
13:19 right they didn't want to lose ofka
13:23 whilst these arguments in Congress were
13:25 still underway they did not want to lose
13:28 of
13:29 whilst the Munich security conference
13:32 was about to happen because doing so
13:36 would have looked like a major loss of
13:38 face and might have fed doubts or so
13:43 they feared in the west that you know
13:46 Ukraine is losing the war and is going
13:49 to lose the war and that further Western
13:53 Aid to Ukraine is therefore sending good
13:56 money after bad so they clung on in fact
14:01 they disastrously reinforced failure and
14:06 we have this chaotic situation that we
14:09 see now now there is a further thing
14:12 which is where we come back to your
14:14 original question because as they were
14:17 not prepared to give up of dka and seem
14:21 unwilling to accept this this major
14:24 fortified position was collapsing they
14:27 see to have done abs absolutely nothing
14:30 to build proper fortified lines west of
14:33 a AFA now any fortified lines they build
14:36 west of afca would anyway have been less
14:42 strong than the ones they've just lost
14:45 in AA itself they would have had to be
14:48 improvised in a hurry and given how
14:52 strong the Russian military now is as we
14:54 see it's debatable whether even these 40
14:58 ified lines had they been built would
15:02 have been strong enough to resist the
15:04 Russians but the reality the actual
15:08 reality is that it seems that no
15:10 significant fortified lines west of OFA
15:14 have been built at all now we don't know
15:17 this from the Russians but Ukrainian
15:20 soldiers and um you and I say Ukrainian
15:23 soldiers I mean the azof Brigade the
15:27 47th mechanized Brigade which has been
15:30 fighting in AFA for a very long time
15:33 they've been sending back reports saying
15:35 there are no
15:37 fortifications in the area so it looks
15:41 as if once OFA Falls it's open it's open
15:45 territory it's open ground for the
15:48 Russians to advance further if that is
15:52 what they choose to do now I don't know
15:55 what it is that the Russians plan to do
15:58 I mean the other side of the story about
16:01 adfa is that the Russian military is now
16:04 working at full you know full range of
16:08 its capacities and
16:11 skills they've conducted a masterly
16:15 operation in a Africa they've captured
16:17 this place despite the resistance of
16:19 some of Ukraine's best troops the 110th
16:22 Brigade the 47th mechanized Brigade the
16:25 third aov Brigade they are all also
16:29 massively outmatching the ukrainians in
16:31 Firepower where they're able to bomb
16:34 Ukrainian fortifications shell them they
16:36 are able to do things which we've never
16:39 seen happen earlier in the war and
16:41 they've also acted with immense tactical
16:44 skill keeping the ukrainians guessing
16:46 all the time about where towards of deca
16:50 they're going to attack and attacking
16:53 where the ukrainians didn't expect them
16:54 to attack so all of this shows that the
16:59 ukrainians are up against a formidable
17:02 adversary the question is what is this
17:05 adversary now going to do are they going
17:08 to push forward westwards from OFA
17:11 towards other places like say the Big
17:14 Town of pakros which lies a bit further
17:17 west are they going to push north
17:20 towards uh you know aavad are they
17:23 simply going to stay where they are and
17:26 attack somewhere else we simp do not
17:29 know but whatever it is that the
17:31 Russians do everything suggests now it's
17:34 going to be carefully planned and
17:36 structured in advance and you're
17:38 absolutely right even as OFA collapses
17:41 the Russians are applying pressure on
17:43 every other part of the front
17:46 lines right what happens at Munich now
17:50 what do you think happens at Munich now
17:52 the the
17:53 excuse is that the way they're coping
17:56 with this the collective West you got a
17:58 hint at that from Kirby's statement the
18:00 other day which is uh if if only 61
18:04 billion was approved then a Deka would
18:06 not have fallen that's that's basically
18:10 how they're going to cope with all of
18:11 this and how they're going to explain
18:12 this away uh what are your thoughts well
18:16 right I mean a few things to say about
18:18 this firstly I mean the $61 billion is
18:21 not going to change the situation on the
18:23 battlefronts I mean it cannot do because
18:26 the the critical thing
18:29 that Ukraine is now short of first and
18:31 foremost artillery shells and by the way
18:34 not just artillery shells but artillery
18:38 are not available in the west to be
18:42 supplied to Ukraine the same is true of
18:45 air defense missiles um we we've now had
18:50 from under secretary Bush of the
18:53 Pentagon and it's been a you know an
18:54 interview he's given which has received
18:56 no attention at all in the western media
18:59 even though he's a top Bagan official
19:01 he's given us up to-date figures finally
19:04 for Shell production in the United
19:06 States and it's gone up from TW
19:09 14,000 rounds of 155 shells a
19:14 month before the war started to 28,000
19:18 rounds a month now Ukraine says it needs
19:22 6,000 rounds a day that is nowhere near
19:26 enough we know that the shell situation
19:29 in Europe is catastrophic we know that
19:32 all the great shell uh you
19:36 know arsenals have been catastrophically
19:40 depleted so you know past $ 61 billion
19:44 it's not going to provide Ukraine with
19:47 more shells because the shells are not
19:50 there the same goes for air defense
19:52 missiles there's a general shortage
19:54 throughout the west of air defense
19:56 missiles I mean they're just talking
19:58 about you know an ant you know an an air
20:01 defense Coalition they just announced
20:04 that in Ramstein to provide Ukraine with
20:06 their defense missiles I thought they'd
20:09 already announced that a year ago I
20:12 remember you know Ula V the lion no less
20:15 talking about how you know the this is a
20:17 year ago the importance of providing
20:20 Ukraine with air defense uh systems they
20:24 given Ukraine all the head defense
20:27 systems they they realistically can
20:30 they're running short of missiles
20:32 Ukraine is sh running short of missiles
20:35 which enables the Russian Air Force now
20:37 to operate across the Eastern
20:39 battlefields essentially it will so it
20:42 simply isn't realistic to say just give
20:45 them $61 billion and that's going to
20:48 change the situation You're simply
20:50 throwing money at a problem rather than
20:52 dealing with the underlying essential
20:56 problem the British have admitted they
20:58 have no artillery left I mean this is an
21:01 astonishing admission that I read in the
21:04 uh Daily Telegraph that the British army
21:07 has no artillery it's got no guns it's
21:10 got no shells and the same it seems is
21:13 true of most of the other European
21:15 militaries as well and the United States
21:18 does but it has a multiplicity of other
21:22 commitments around the world notably the
21:25 one in the Middle East what this whole
21:28 story is this thing about the $ 61
21:30 billion do it's just an
21:33 alibi behind which Western governments
21:37 are
21:38 hiding as the situation in Ukraine turns
21:42 to
21:43 catastrophe and in order to draw
21:47 attention away from their own
21:49 catastrophic decision making which we
21:51 have seen throughout this war and I just
21:54 finish here by saying that the were
21:56 shells that could that have been given
21:58 to you that were given to Ukraine last
22:01 year about half a million shells bought
22:04 from North South Korea Americans bought
22:08 half a million shell from South Korea
22:10 ruining South Korea's otherwise good
22:12 relations with Russia by the way and um
22:16 all of those shells were
22:19 squandered over the course of Ukraine's
22:23 summer
22:25 offensive Ukraine ran out of shell
22:28 in August the United States at that
22:32 point had to start supplying Ukraine
22:34 with cluster
22:36 shells if we remember so the shell
22:40 crisis long predates the problems in
22:44 Congress that we're talking and hearing
22:46 about
22:47 now no they've admitted that they don't
22:50 have the shells and they're not capable
22:53 of matching Russia with shell production
22:55 because they they've announced this plan
22:58 of one million drones the UK and the the
23:01 EU Partners to me I look at that as an
23:04 admission that we can't make shells we
23:08 can't match the Russians on shells but
23:10 forget about the shells don't don't
23:12 worry about shells we've got a new plan
23:15 we're gonna make a million
23:16 drones this is nonsense this is absolute
23:19 nonsense you're completely corre I me
23:21 you know this is just lurching from one
23:23 stupidity to another I mean a million
23:26 DRS I mean can I just say but estimates
23:29 the Russians are now producing something
23:31 like 10,000 drones a day I'm just saying
23:34 I mean you know I mean already they are
23:36 industrially producing drones on a
23:39 colossal scale but all right put that
23:41 aside and you know we I'm not going to
23:43 dwell on the Russian figures because
23:45 there's always uncertainties about those
23:47 I mean the drones are not going to make
23:49 a difference on the battlefields we've
23:52 been hearing for weeks now about how
23:56 Ukraine is able to use FP PV drones to
24:00 substitute for artillery we've just seen
24:03 that entire Theory collapse in of D
24:06 Afric
24:08 and if the W if the Europeans are able
24:12 to make a million drones which is I mean
24:15 no other promise they've man they've
24:17 made about supplying Ukraine with
24:19 weapons they've been able to keep but if
24:22 they Supply those drones it won't make
24:24 any difference drones carry a very small
24:28 explosive
24:30 charge the Russians are showing a great
24:33 ability to jam them they require
24:36 extremely skilled operators of which
24:39 Ukraine has fewer and fewer because the
24:42 Russians are hunting them on the
24:45 battlefields
24:46 and they can't do the things that
24:50 artillery does this is
24:54 obvious yeah Ukraine is is out of uh
24:59 artillery they're out of air
25:01 defense and the 61 billion is not going
25:04 to buy You Soldiers either I mean I'm
25:06 reading more and more reports about The
25:08 catastrophic state of uh of Ukraine's
25:12 military conscription they don't really
25:14 talk about the mobilization or
25:15 conscription much anymore either and uh
25:18 we're talking about just a demographic
25:21 uh
25:22 collapse this is actually 61 billion
25:25 can't fix this No 61 billion can't fix
25:27 is as you right correctly say it won't
25:30 buy You Soldiers either and since we
25:33 just touched on the question of
25:34 mobilization I mean I've been reading
25:36 comments made by
25:38 Ukrainian analysts and political you
25:42 know political figures and they're
25:44 saying that there half a million men
25:46 that zalinski and zusy were talking
25:49 about that you needed to be called up
25:51 they don't exist Ukraine can't conscript
25:56 that many people not at this late stage
25:58 of the war um they're suggesting that
26:02 somewhere between 100 and
26:05 200,000 might be the most that Ukraine
26:08 would be able to conscript with the
26:11 available resources but all the people
26:13 who really you know were capable of
26:16 fighting have already been conscripted
26:19 and have been the units that they served
26:21 in have been shattered on the battle fre
26:24 on the battlefields and what you would
26:26 be conscripting now would be very young
26:28 men in their 20s um if you had the time
26:34 to train them you might make soldiers
26:37 out of them but training soldiers who
26:41 have no experience of War takes roughly
26:43 a year apparently if they're to survive
26:46 in Modern Combat Ukraine doesn't have a
26:51 year h a final question or comment a
26:55 thought that I'm having with this 61
26:56 billion
26:58 uh the goal from the Biden White House
27:00 is to try and and get this pasted
27:02 November
27:04 2024 you can see that that they're
27:07 starting to worry that they're not going
27:09 to accomplish this goal I mean Kirby's
27:12 statement yesterday you could see that
27:13 Kirby was was shaking he was in a panic
27:16 yes um the 61 billion obviously it's not
27:19 gonna It's Not Gonna Get You millions of
27:22 of5 mm shells I mean that's obvious if
27:25 they had these shells there they would
27:27 have already gone to Ukraine you're not
27:29 going to get these shells just because
27:30 you give 61 billion to to Ukraine um is
27:34 the 61 billion was it really meant to
27:38 keep zalinski in power from the
27:41 standpoint of keeping the government up
27:43 and running paying pensions paying
27:46 salaries paying the parliament members
27:48 the
27:49 oligarchs uh just keeping everyone
27:52 wellfed for at least six
27:55 months even though the the the military
27:58 is being annihilated at least keep the
28:00 political situation somewhat stable and
28:04 then you can have the collapse happen in
28:05 in November and now they're worried that
28:08 zelinsky's position now may be in in
28:11 serious trouble and I I imagine they're
28:14 going to discuss that in Munich I'm just
28:16 trying to to I guess my question to you
28:19 what I'm trying to get out of you is is
28:22 you know obviously the 61 million 61
28:25 billion didn't do anything from aill
28:27 milary level so what really was this 61
28:31 billion about once you take out the the
28:34 10% for the big guy and all of the the
28:36 corruption all that all that stuff what
28:38 you what you get down to a certain
28:39 number say 50 billion was that just
28:42 really about keeping the political
28:46 situation stable while the military
28:48 situation collapses and now you're gonna
28:50 have political and Military situation
28:53 collapsing at the same time you know
28:55 that might make some sense if if you
28:57 were dealing with people who have a
28:59 realistic understanding of the war now
29:03 this 61 billion package for Ukraine it's
29:06 important to remember it it dates from
29:08 the fall they were talking about this
29:11 way back in the Autumn already at the
29:13 time when zilinski was visiting the
29:15 United States which from memory was
29:17 either in September or October and um I
29:21 think at that time if it was
29:25 still Ukraine's so called offensive was
29:29 still underway it wasn't clear that the
29:33 Russians would almost immediately as
29:36 soon as the offensive Peter out
29:39 themselves go on the attack there has
29:41 been this consistent underestimation of
29:45 Russian military capabilities and I
29:47 think they thought that they had more
29:49 time than they really do I think they
29:51 thought that probably things would
29:53 quieten down through the winter that um
29:56 you know the War would resume in the
29:58 spring you give Ukraine $61 billion the
30:02 Europeans give the
30:04 ukrainians $55 billion Euro package over
30:08 um four years which is another 12
30:11 billion do basically this year and that
30:15 keeps the whole thing in Ukraine ticking
30:18 along until the November election and
30:21 taking along economically obviously
30:23 because you know without the funding
30:25 from the United States there is massive
30:28 hole in Ukraine's budget but also I
30:31 suspect they did think that they'd be
30:33 able to hold things back militarily as
30:36 well they didn't really believe that the
30:38 Russians would go on the offensive in
30:41 the way that they did on the contrary I
30:43 suspect that there was still some hopes
30:45 this is you know back in the Early
30:48 Autumn that this clinky operation which
30:51 by the way has now apparently been
30:53 entirely called off it seems the one
30:55 thing that CI has done is is that he's
30:57 told the uh the Ukrainian command to
31:01 evacuate all the remaining troops of
31:03 kinky and that might even already have
31:05 happened but anyway there was probably
31:07 some hope back in the Early Autumn that
31:10 that might actually amount to something
31:13 and might give the Russians problems but
31:16 they have consistently underestimated
31:18 the Russians this has been a story of
31:20 the war right from almost the first
31:23 day and it's now caught up with them and
31:26 you absolutely right Kirby looked like
31:29 he was panicking and I get the sense
31:32 that the US is panicking alog together
31:34 now they're starting to realize that
31:38 they don't have the time that they
31:40 thought they did that things really are
31:43 starting to fall apart even faster than
31:46 they
31:49 assume yeah all right um my my final
31:51 thought there on the US Panic is you
31:54 know just take the L let the media run
31:58 with this story for a month and then
32:00 people will forget about it Europe
32:02 Europe is in a much different situation
32:04 but you know Europe is going to still be
32:07 dependent on the US because the EU has
32:09 nowhere to go you have nowhere to go so
32:13 no matter how angry or distrustful they
32:16 are of the United States or they say the
32:18 US is unreliable or whatever they have
32:20 nowhere to go so they're going to be
32:22 dependent on the US no matter what the
32:24 best thing the Biden White House could
32:25 do is take the
32:28 take the take the criticism for a month
32:31 and eventually you own the media so you
32:35 know the media will work through the
32:36 cycle of the Ukraine loss and that'll be
32:40 that and this fear about Europe uh not
32:44 having trust in in in the US Al is
32:46 nonsense the
32:48 Europeans they're they're they're 100%
32:52 subordinate and owned by the United
32:54 States so they're not going to go
32:55 anywhere that that would be my advice to
32:57 the Biden White House what would be
32:58 yours I me what would you say you are
33:00 you are absolutely right I mean you know
33:03 what did Biden what did Putin say to
33:05 Taka Carlson you cannot win a propaganda
33:08 battle against the United States the
33:11 United States owns the entire
33:13 International media when he meant what
33:16 he was talking about the United States
33:18 he was talking about the Biden
33:19 Administration and his friends you know
33:23 the best thing politically that could
33:26 happen now for the Biden Administration
33:29 is that speaker Johnson maintains his
33:31 position the house does not vote this
33:34 appropriation this um procedural
33:37 mechanism that people are talking about
33:38 to try and override his decision just
33:41 forget about it let put all the blame on
33:44 the Republicans tell everybody you know
33:47 the $61 billion would have made all the
33:49 difference it wouldn't have done but you
33:52 know you can get your uh media friends
33:55 to obscure all of that when the collapse
33:59 happens blame the Republicans of trump
34:03 and just move on and you know by
34:05 November in the United States all of
34:09 this would be
34:10 forgotten you know it's absolutely the
34:12 case I I was reading actually an amazing
34:14 article one of the few good articles
34:16 that sometime that you still appear
34:19 which is in the financial times which
34:21 made exactly this point that ultimately
34:24 the United States is completely secure
34:26 it surr Ed by seas and oceans all these
34:28 wars happen far away they don't affect
34:31 US Territory they don't affect directly
34:34 the US economy the us could just sail
34:37 through a debacle in Ukraine and a you
34:42 know all that matters therefore
34:48 is public relations management which is
34:52 something that these guys excel in they
34:56 would be pling to their strengths as for
34:58 the Europeans well they you know they're
35:01 stuffed I they burnt all their Bridges
35:04 with the
35:05 Russians they cut themselves off from
35:08 Russian oil and gas they're still
35:12 pressing on with further rounds of
35:14 sanctions against the Russians they are
35:18 bullying and blackmailing the only
35:20 politicians in Europe people like Orban
35:23 who speak sense they've got nowhere to
35:26 go they are
35:28 completely
35:30 completely on limb with this one if the
35:33 United
35:34 States walks away they've got nowhere to
35:38 go and they can't get their military
35:41 production organized they can't get
35:43 their defense systems sorted out it's a
35:48 fantasy to think that they ever
35:51 will yeah agreed all right v. locals.com
35:56 we are Rumble Odyssey bito telegram
35:58 Rockin and Twitter X and go to the Duran
36:02 shop 15% off all t-shirts take
36:21 care
🎥 Related Videos
Gaza: Fighting continues despite UN Security Council resolution calling for ceasefire | BBC News
Poilievre claims Trudeau is "losing control" with "screaming and hollering" while answering question
38 million Californians under flood alerts due to atmospheric rivers
Policing the Police 2020 (full documentary) | FRONTLINE
What's behind the creation of the Alliance of Sahel States? | Inside Story
Dancing With The Dragon - China: Friend or Foe? | Full Head to Head | Oxford Union
🔥 Recently Summarized Examples
4 Steps to Master Any Complex Skill (quickly)
40 Years of Fitness Experience in Less Than 11 Minutes.
Gun Controlling Media Makes FATAL Mistake... They Have Tied Their Fate To Biden's & Gun Rights Win
GET READY! Palantir Is Officially The Next Nvidia.
Abundant Thinking: The Hidden Key to Get Everything You Want (Audiobook)