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Not Much Change in the Market | Cabot Weekly Review

861 views|3 months ago
💫 Short Summary

In the YouTube video, Mike Stoe, a chief analyst and growth investor, discusses the current state of the market, noting that the major indexes are still up, led by NASDAQ and S&P 500, with leading growth stocks performing well. However, there is a growing divergence with the broad market and not many great entry points for strong stocks. Stoe remains bullish but is also cautious, holding some cash and looking for opportunities while being discerning on the buy side. He also mentions selling some laggards and trying to redeploy the proceeds into fresher leading stocks. Stoe uses MarketSmith to analyze charts and discusses the trends in various market indices and types of stocks. He also briefly mentions the IBD 50 index and some tertiary indicators like GameStop and Wayfair. In this video, the speaker discusses the current state of the stock market and highlights specific stocks such as AMD, Shift 4, Cloudflare, and Academy Sports and Outdoors, which have potential opportunities for investment. The speaker also mentions the performance of the 10-year and 5-year notes, as well as the situation with regional banks and interest rates. In this video, a stock market expert discusses various stocks and their potential for growth, including biotech companies with upcoming clinical trials, semiconductor companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and ASML, cloud software companies like AppFolio and Snowflake, and other companies such as IoT, Axon, HubSpot, Procore, and Airbnb. He notes that while there are many names performing well in the market, some stocks are extended and investors should be cautious for potential turbulence.

✨ Highlights
📊 Transcript
The stock market continues to trend upwards, led by NASDAQ, S&P 500, and big cap stocks. However, there is a growing divergence as interest rates and bond trends are cracking.
Major indexes like NASDAQ and S&P 500 are still on an upward trend.
Leading growth stocks are performing well, with many continuing to rise.
There are still earnings gaps higher for some stocks.
Interest rates and bond trends are showing cracks in their uptrends.
There are not many great entry points for strong stocks at the moment.
Mike is bullish on the market but is also cautious, holding around 30% cash in the portfolio and looking for opportunities to invest in emerging leading stocks.
Believes the market and some stocks can go higher in the future.
Taking partial profits and selling some laggards.
Looking to reinvest in fresh leading stocks, especially if there is a rotation to other growth areas.
Interest in upcoming earnings reports for potential investment opportunities.
Maintaining a cautious approach by holding 30% cash and being discerning on the buy side.
The overall trend in the market is up, with the NASDAQ, S&P 500, New York Composite, midcaps, and small caps all showing upward trends. There is a concentration of buying in certain areas, leading to divergence.
The NASDAQ, S&P 500, and New York Composite are showing upward trends.
Midcaps and small caps are also above the 50-day line, indicating a positive trend.
Divergence is occurring due to concentrated buying, with certain sectors outperforming others.
There is no significant selling pressure, with sporadic selling but overall trend is up.
The IBD 50 index for strong stocks is showing good relative strength and earnings growth.
The video ends with a mention of the FFT ETF for leading stocks, which is currently very strong and extended on the upside. There are also observations about the lack of rush into defensive stocks and the absence of speculative activity in certain sectors.
The FFT ETF for leading stocks is currently very strong and extended on the upside.
There is no rush into defensive stocks, indicating confidence in the market.
Speculative indicators like GameStop and beyond meat are not showing significant activity yet.
Stock Market Analysis
The leading group, SMH, is extended to the upside, indicating potential froth in the market.
Many stocks have been advancing for two to three months, leading to a different risk profile for investors.
The 10-year and five-year notes are holding above their 50-day lines and testing new highs, suggesting a potential shift in the downtrend.
The performance of regional banks is being watched, as a continued decline could signal issues, especially with rising rates.
Advice for New Buying
Be more discerning and look for stocks that have pulled back, even in strong groups.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has had a significant run but still looks good if it chills out a bit.
Outside of chips and AI, Shift 4 and Cloudflare are mentioned as potential opportunities.
Earnings gaps are still being seen, with stocks like Snap, Pins, Expedia, and Cloudflare showing strength.
Opportunities in Individual Stocks
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has doubled in value since Halloween, but a potential pullback could present a buying opportunity.
Nvidia is performing well, but there may be a pullback after the earnings.
Shift 4 has a strong base and is showing potential for a breakout, with earnings coming up in a few weeks.
Cloudflare is another stock to watch, as it has been testing the 80 level for two months and is showing strength.
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Dave and Busters, and Boot Barn are also mentioned as stocks showing potential for growth.
Biotech stocks are being closely watched, with some showing potential despite event risk and earnings announcements.
Earnings played a big role last week, with some stocks showing a nice follow through.
Neurocrine (NBIX) and Intracellular (ITCI) are two biotech stocks to watch, with event risk and Q1/Q2 clinical trials coming up.
Some stocks in the biotech sector have seen nice volume accumulation and are showing potential for a sustained move.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and ASML are two chip-related stocks to keep an eye on, despite being extended in price.
TSM gapped on earnings and has been ramping up for four weeks.
ASML also gapped and has been running for a few weeks, but could still pull back and consolidate.
These stocks could be worth watching for potential pullbacks or fresh opportunities.
Cloud software and niche names like AppFolio and Snowflake are showing strong performance, with AppFolio having a huge earnings move.
AppFolio (APPF) had a record volume and is acting well, despite being a thinner trader.
Snowflake (SNOW) is showing a longer-term breakout and has seen above average buying volume for three straight weeks.
IoT (Internet of Things) stocks like IOTS and Sarah are showing mixed performance, with choppy consolidation and valuations being a concern.
Several other stocks, including Axon, HubSpot, Procore, and Airbnb, are mentioned as potential opportunities or stocks to keep an eye on.
Axon is showing a tight structure and trying to come out.
HubSpot and Procore have earnings next week, while Airbnb has a nice setup going into earnings.
Overall, the market is bullish with many stocks hitting new highs, but there is also a concern for potential turbulence due to extended prices.
💫 FAQs about This YouTube Video

1. What are some key stock movements discussed in the video?

The video discusses the stock movements of various companies, including a big earnings clue off the bottom, a biotech stock not reacting well to earnings, and the potential for certain stocks to make sustained moves.

2. How does the speaker describe the current market trend?

The speaker describes the current market trend as bullish, with many stocks hitting new highs, but also notes the possibility of turbulence due to extended stock movements.

3. Which specific stocks are mentioned as potential opportunities to watch?

The video mentions Taiwan Semiconductor, ASML, AppFolio, Snowflake, and IoT as potential opportunities to watch based on their stock movements and earnings.

4. What advice does the speaker give to investors based on the stock movements discussed?

The speaker advises investors to keep their feet on the ground, stay bullish but cautious, and be prepared for potential turbulence in the market due to extended stock movements.

5. How does the speaker characterize the overall bullishness of the market?

The speaker characterizes the overall bullishness of the market by highlighting the number of stocks hitting new highs, but also emphasizes the importance of staying cautious and prepared for potential market turbulence.