00:12hello and welcome to the Fisher
00:13Investments Market insights podcast
00:15where we discuss our firm's latest
00:17thinking on global Capital markets and
00:19current events I'm n shavas Executive
00:22Vice President of corporate
00:23Communications here at the firm in
00:25today's episode we'll be discussing our
00:27outlook for markets in 2024 with special
00:30guest Aaron Anderson who is a senior
00:32vice president of research and a member
00:33of our investment policy committee Aaron
00:36and I began recapping the markets in
00:382023 and discuss how the start of the
00:41current bull market was somewhat
00:43atypical we'll reflect on where we see
00:45investor sentiment today as well as his
00:48expectations for stocks in
00:502024 Aon will also talk about some risks
00:53for investors to look out for this year
00:56before we dive in I'd like to ask you to
00:58rate and recommend our podcast wherever
01:00you listen in just a few minutes you can
01:02help us make this information available
01:04to even more people thanks for your help
01:06we have lots of great information to
01:08share with you in this episode so let's
01:09get started Aaron thanks so much for
01:11being here today yeah thanks NJ great to
01:14see you nice to be with you let's just
01:16start out by talking a little bit about
01:182023 and how 2023 worked out relative to
01:21our expectations coming out of a bare
01:23Market in 2022 that bottomed in around
01:27October 2022 how did 2023 work out
01:32forecast 2023 was pretty good actually
01:35uh you know maybe reflecting back on
01:3720122 a little bit what really stood out
01:40to us towards the end of the year
01:43especially was just how negative
01:45investors become I mean you look at a
01:47lot of measures of investor sentiment
01:49during 2022 investors are clearly
01:51grappling with a lot you had a war going
01:54on you had high inflation you had
01:55tightening monetary policy you had
01:57midterm elections just a lot going on in
01:59the world that year which I think caused
02:01a lot of consternation for investors but
02:03what we really found compelling was the
02:06fact that overall despite some of those
02:08concerns the economy seemed to be doing
02:10okay yet investor sentiment just got to
02:12be incredibly negative huge pessimism
02:15about the economy not many folks wanting
02:17to own stocks just a lot of negativity
02:20overall and you know what we know within
02:22our research group from years and years
02:24of historical analysis is that's exactly
02:26how new bull markets begin that
02:29investors sentiment overshoots to the
02:31downside you get extreme pessimism
02:33usually that's not backed up by
02:35fundamentals and that's exactly what I
02:37think led us into a very strong 2023 and
02:39so fortunately we had been anticipating
02:42that coming into 2023 we did think the
02:44economy would hold up okay we didn't
02:46think uh inflation was going to be too
02:48persistent that it would start to
02:50decelerate and we certainly saw a lot of
02:51that last year and that equities would
02:54benefit from just more comfort from
02:56investors less worry about some of those
02:58things that I mentioned moving M further
03:00away from the war less concerned that
03:01inflation is running away less concerned
03:03about recession and so forth and all of
03:05that played out very well I think that's
03:07exactly what helped Drive the start of a
03:09new bull market last year uh and uh I'm
03:12happy to say that we were pretty well
03:13positioned for that I mean one of the
03:15things that we know is that when you get
03:17that transition from a bare Market to a
03:19bull market usually it's the parts of
03:22the market Equity markets I'm I'm
03:23referring to here that suffer most in
03:26the downturn usually the ones that do
03:27best when that new bull market begins
03:29and that again is exactly what happened
03:31last year and so really fishing through
03:33the rubble of 2022 from a Stock
03:36Investing standpoint to identify those
03:38oversold companies that we thought would
03:40benefit from a reversal in that very
03:42negative sentiment I think that was uh
03:44really the key to success last year but
03:46drilling into that a little bit what we
03:48saw last year was a little abnormal
03:50relative to how most bull markets began
03:53I mean last year was led by a lot of big
03:56growthy companies coming out of the bare
03:58Market but typically you start to see
04:01smaller cap value stocks outperform in
04:04those initial stages of historical bull
04:06markets what do you make of that
04:09describing them as abnormal you know you
04:10could extend that for a few years now
04:12and just say there's been a lot abnormal
04:14that's been going on for a while but I
04:15think you're exactly right that in some
04:17ways last year was very typical of a new
04:20bull market beginning in some ways it
04:22was very atypical I think the atypical
04:24part is exactly what you mentioned there
04:26usually it's not the big high quality
04:28Growth Company that get pounded in the
04:30downturn certainly they're not usually
04:32the ones that do well in the early
04:34stages of a newable market usually
04:36that's prime time for small value lower
04:39quality cyclical companies but what I
04:42would say is that I think usually you
04:44look at history and those are usually
04:45the out performers as new bull markets
04:47begin but that's usually because those
04:49are also the companies that get hammered
04:51in a bare Market you know usually you
04:53get a recession usually you get those
04:56companies you know investors perceptions
04:58of those companies get extremely
05:00negative they just feel like those small
05:02cyclical companies without the access to
05:04credit that bigger companies do without
05:06the balance sheets that bigger companies
05:08have they think those small cyclical
05:10ones are are going to go out of business
05:11and they get priced accordingly and then
05:13as investors warm up to the idea that
05:15maybe things aren't as bad as they
05:17thought they were those companies are
05:18the ones that rebound and so it was very
05:21atypical and that that didn't happen
05:23last year you didn't get that small
05:25value leadership early but what was very
05:27typical was one how sentiment played out
05:29out you know I always like to use a
05:31quote from the famous investor Sir John
05:33Templeton to frame how investor
05:35sentiment evolves over the course of a
05:37be Market what he said was well markets
05:39are born on pessimism they grow on
05:41skepticism they mature on optimism they
05:43die on Euphoria and so seeing that
05:46extreme pessimism right at the beginning
05:47of a newable market is very typical what
05:50also was typical was what I mentioned
05:52before that the hardest hit parts of the
05:54market are the ones that did well last
05:57year that benefited most from a rebound
05:58in sentiment it's just a type of company
06:00that applied to was very different it
06:02wasn't the small value companies that
06:03got hammered in the downturn it was the
06:05big growth companies to see them rebound
06:08is what you'd expect because they were
06:09the underperformers in 2022 but it's not
06:12the usual style leadership that you see
06:14as new bull markets are beginning
06:16usually it's small value that leads but
06:18also usually it's the hard- hit ones
06:21that's where you you kind of have the
06:22the differences in terms of what you
06:24might expect in terms of style
06:26leadership as a newable market begins
06:28ultimately that bounce effect one out
06:29over the typical early cycle small value
06:33leadership but I think that bounce
06:35effect just that reversal in sentiment
06:37benefiting those hard- hit companies
06:39that was really a 2023 phenomenon I
06:41can't say for sure if it's entirely run
06:42its course or not we're certainly if not
06:46that effect hasn't fully run its course
06:48we're pretty close to it how much of the
06:50abnormality of that style leadership
06:53shift do you attribute to the pandemic
06:56and covid well some for sure I mean it's
07:00impossible to deny that Co is still
07:02having some Ripple effects in fact I
07:05think if you look at the economy over
07:06the last few years you know what I hear
07:09from investors all the time is it's just
07:10a different world today that boy so much
07:13has changed over the last few years I I
07:15would push back against that a little
07:17bit what I would say is yes a lot did
07:19change temporarily you got these huge
07:22swings in economic activity I me you go
07:24back to 2020 and economies are getting
07:25locked down there are huge stimulus
07:27packages that has implications for
07:29household balance sheets that has
07:30implications for consumption has
07:32implications for what people are
07:34consuming you couldn't go to the movies
07:36you couldn't travel you couldn't do a
07:37lot of the things that people usually
07:38spend money on so the demand for goods
07:40went through the roof that impacted
07:42inventories just big economic effects
07:45and Market effects all the co winners
07:47from 2020 whether it was your work from
07:49home type companies you know some of the
07:51the biotech or medical companies that
07:53were Bing from that there were just a
07:54lot of Market implications to all of
07:55that as well but I think a lot of those
07:58are proving to be temporary W I would
08:00describe things today isn't actually so
08:02different than where we were preco I
08:04think it was kind of those Prime co
08:06years where the abnormal period and now
08:09we're settling into a more normal
08:11economic environment and Market
08:12environment and so I do think that there
08:14were some impacts in terms of the Ripple
08:16effects of covid that influenced that
08:18but I really think the defining feature
08:22abnormality uh in the bare Market was
08:25just that we didn't have a recession I
08:26mean it is very rare to have a bare
08:28market like we saw in
08:302022 uh without a recession and usually
08:34when you get a recession that's when
08:35your smaller cyclical companies are
08:37suffering and so forth they just didn't
08:39experience that because the economy did
08:41pretty darn well certainly exceeded most
08:43expectations and so I do think those Co
08:45effects played a role I think they've
08:47played a role for a few years now but I
08:49think we're finally starting to move
08:50past them in terms of how the economy is
08:53normalizing and how markets are likely
08:55to normalize but I think the big reason
08:57you didn't get that style shift from
08:592022 into 2023 was the fact that it was
09:03a recession lless bare Market which
09:05happens sometimes there are some
09:06examples of that historically they're
09:08just relatively infrequent so I think as
09:10people use a lot of the tools that
09:13they've used historically to gauge the
09:15economy or gauge markets whether it's
09:17things like the yield curve being
09:19inverted people have cited that as one
09:21of the main reasons to be pessimistic
09:23about the economy usually that precedes
09:25a recession it hasn't so far this time
09:28around leading economic indexes which
09:30usually are a pretty good indicator of
09:32future economic activity have faltered
09:34this time around I think Co effects have
09:36really thrown those things off quite a
09:39bit but in terms of why didn't we get
09:41that normal small value leadership
09:43coming out of the bare Market I think
09:44that had a lot more to do with the fact
09:46that we just didn't get the recession
09:47everybody was expecting so with a return
09:50to some semblance of of post pandemic
09:54normaly what are our expectations for
09:572024 well but we're still optimistic I
10:00mean bu markets have momentum and we're
10:03still now just getting back to Prior
10:05highs I mean you've seen a pretty
10:07typical mostly sentiment driven bare
10:10Market in 2022 reverse in 2023 and kind
10:14of just retrace itself I think what
10:16we're expecting now is that probably
10:18continues it's very rare to have a bull
10:21market begin uh have it have a strong
10:23first year like we saw last year and not
10:25go on to have a positive second year and
10:27the way bull markets tend to play out
10:30that supports an ongoing bull market and
10:32positive returns this year the political
10:34cycle matters quite a bit as well of
10:36course this is going to be a big year
10:37politically in lots of parts of the
10:39world actually there are tons of
10:40Elections happening this year but of
10:42course the most notable one is the the
10:44elections taking place in the US
10:46especially the presidential election but
10:48history suggests that's actually pretty
10:49good for stocks as well election years
10:51are overwhelmingly positive and I think
10:54what plays into that quite a bit is
10:55gridlock you know you go through midterm
10:58elections pretty much always whatever
11:00part's in power loses some of that power
11:02in midterm elections that means it's
11:04harder to get things done there's less
11:06political action less legislative risk
11:08markets really tend to celebrate that in
11:10fact The Sweet Spot of the presidential
11:12cycle is the third year right after
11:14midterms which is of course what 2023
11:16was but fourth years are pretty darn
11:17good as well and I think it's really
11:19telling if you look at actual
11:22legislation past over the past year it's
11:25at historically extremely low levels
11:27just not getting anything done which is
11:29frustrating to a lot of people if you
11:30are of the mindset that what the
11:32government does the economy really
11:35requires government action to move
11:37forward you're probably not so
11:38optimistic about the economy but I think
11:40history would suggest that politicians
11:43having their hands tied is actually a
11:44pretty good thing for the stock market
11:45because it just lowers political risk
11:47the chance of some big controversial
11:49piece of legislation getting passed goes
11:51down quite a bit markets tend to
11:53celebrate that so I think continued
11:55gridlock into this election year should
11:57bode well for equities also I think from
12:00an earning standpoint that's probably
12:01one of the more compelling things for
12:03this bull market to continue you know I
12:05mentioned we didn't have an actual
12:07recession last year the year before we
12:09did have a little bit of an earnings
12:10recession we had a few quarters there
12:12where earnings were Contracting I think
12:14there were some technical issues
12:16associated with that energy earnings for
12:18instance fell quite a bit simply because
12:20they spiked so much in 2022 in the wake
12:23of the Russia Ukraine war starting you
12:26guys saw this big spike up in oil prices
12:28and of course energy companies benefited
12:29quite a bit from that but on a
12:31year-over-year basis those numbers came
12:33down and so there are some technical
12:34issues there but you did have a few
12:36quarters of negative earnings growth
12:38that's really going to reverse this year
12:39we're probably looking at a double-
12:41digit earnings growth year for companies
12:43and so what usually happens is markets
12:45anticipate that they move ahead of that
12:47earnings Improvement that's what you saw
12:49last year but I think this is a year
12:50where earnings start to do more of the
12:52heavy lifting and there's a compelling
12:53case that with a decent economy not a
12:55gang busters economy but a decent one
12:57and a nice rebound and earning earnings
12:59all that should be supportive of an
13:00ongoing bull market as well going back
13:03to that Sir John Templeton quote for a
13:05moment where he describes the evolution
13:08of sentiment across a market cycle
13:11coming off a very strong 2023 where do
13:13we see investor sentiment today is it
13:16starting to warm from that skepticism
13:19potentially into optimism or is it still
13:21decidedly pretty skeptical in our view
13:24trying to identify where we are in that
13:26curve of you know pessimism to
13:28skepticism optimism to Euphoria it's
13:31always hard to know exactly where you
13:33are you could maybe argue it's a little
13:35bit easier at the extremes you never
13:37know what the exact bottom is but it'd
13:38be hard to argue when you look at so
13:41many surveys of investors that are so
13:43pessimistic just every measure of
13:45sentiment that you can pull out maybe
13:47other than Equity valuations actually
13:49they never really hit some type of rock
13:50bottom level but every other indicator
13:53you might look at was sending pretty
13:54clear signals that folks were darn
13:56pessimistic and so I think it was easier
13:59at that point to say we're at some level
14:01of pessimism right now you know you're
14:04guessing a little bit more I'd say we're
14:05somewhere in mild optimism uh still a
14:09lot of skepticism out there though so
14:10maybe we're straddling you know the
14:12skeptical phase and the optimistic phase
14:14because while people are getting excited
14:16about some things like artificial
14:18intelligence you know there are certain
14:20categories of equities that I do think
14:22have some enthusiasm baked into them
14:24there's still a lot of economic worry
14:25out there you look at surveys and
14:27there's still a lot of folks expecting a
14:28recession a lot of folks still feeling
14:30very cautious and worried about
14:32geopolitics especially with the ongoing
14:35war between Russia Ukraine now you've
14:37got these terrible geopolitical
14:39conflicts between Israel and Hamas
14:42you've got additional ones now with
14:43Pakistan and Iran there's just a lot
14:46going on geopolitically which I think
14:47adds to worry for investors what we
14:51really worry about is our people too
14:53optimistic are they at the end of that
14:54cycle are they looking very euphoric I
14:56think I can say with a lot of confidence
14:58that we're not there where we are
15:00otherwise are they skeptical are they
15:03optimistic that's a little bit harder to
15:04say but certainly we're still a ways
15:06away from that euphoric top so let's
15:10unpack that a little bit more because
15:12one of the criticisms of
15:142023 has been that so much of the market
15:18return was ascribed to just a few
15:20companies there wasn't a lot of Market
15:22breath where you had a lot of companies
15:24doing really well it was just really a
15:26handful of the very biggest companies in
15:29terms of market capitalization that kind
15:31of pulled the rest of broad indexes
15:34along what do you make of that in terms
15:37of of Market breath the lack of Market
15:39breath and what that means for stocks
15:42forward well you know I think there is
15:44some truth to that and then there's a a
15:46little bit of untruth there as well I
15:48mean if you're just doing the math and
15:49you say well you're constructing an
15:51index every company that's included in
15:53the index like the S&P 500 like the msci
15:56world index every company has got a
15:58weight in that that index that's just
15:59based on the market value of the company
16:01and sometimes there's a float adjustment
16:03that type of thing sometimes not but the
16:05bigger companies just always have a
16:07bigger influence over how an index
16:10performs just mathematically um and when
16:12you look back at last year you say well
16:14the big companies uh especially the big
16:16tech companies did very well and maybe
16:18there was a little bit of AI enthusiasm
16:20that helped bolster them and so I think
16:22if you're just running the math and you
16:23say how did these companies perform and
16:25what is their weight in these various
16:26indexes you say boy they account for a
16:28lot of the index return that's
16:29absolutely true mathematically but I
16:31think if you look under the hood a
16:33little bit that the story is a little
16:35bit different one there are actually a
16:36lot of companies that did very well last
16:39year a very high percentage had returns
16:42that were well into the double digits 20
16:44plus perc maybe they lagged the index a
16:46little bit because those big companies
16:48did do so well but there were actually a
16:50lot of good performers last year even
16:51though as you mentioned bre was
16:53relatively low meaning that the the
16:55percent of companies that actually beat
16:56the index was relatively low which I
16:58think again just gets back to the fact
17:00that when you have those biggest
17:03companies that make up a big portion of
17:05the index doing very well it it just
17:07drags the index up a little bit but if
17:09you extend that view back a little bit
17:11further and you say well take the S&P
17:14500 how has the S&P 500 done over the
17:17last two years with and without those
17:19so-called magnificent 7 magnificent 7
17:22are just the seven biggest companies in
17:23the world as you mentioned all of which
17:24did pretty well last year if you kind of
17:27extend that view back to the beginning
17:29of 2022 there's almost no difference
17:31between the S&P 500 and the S&P 500
17:34excluding those companies because they
17:36were big underperformers in 2022 as
17:39you'd expect they rebounded in 2023 for
17:41all the reasons I mentioned before and
17:43so while technically mathematically they
17:45did drag indexes up really I think the
17:48participation in a strong Market was a
17:50lot broader than that even if the number
17:52of the percent of companies
17:53outperforming wasn't as high but I think
17:56what you saw was just a very normal
17:57effect yes some of those companies
17:59benefited from AI but I think the real
18:02force that drove them last year was that
18:04bounce effect I mentioned before those
18:06were the companies that sold off hard
18:07tied to very negative sentiment in 2022
18:10as that sentiment improved in 2023 they
18:12were some of the beneficiaries you might
18:14sprinkle in a little bit of AI
18:15enthusiasm there as well especially in
18:17places like the semiconductor space and
18:19so forth but by and large I think what
18:21you saw last year was just a very normal
18:23effect of underperformers from 2022
18:26turning into the outperformers in 202
18:28three it just so happens that those
18:30biggest companies those so-called
18:32magnificent 7 were amongst the biggest
18:34underperformers in the downturn they
18:36turned into some of the best performers
18:37last year so Aaron looking ahead at 2024
18:41what areas of the economy or markets do
18:44we think are likely positioned really
18:48others well one I'll just say broadly
18:51you know I think the economy should do
18:53reasonably well this year but it's
18:55probably not going to be Gang Busters I
18:56mean it has been Gang Busters for a long
18:58time now I mean you had kind of the
19:00whipsaw effects around covid you had the
19:02big lockdowns then you had the reopening
19:04and so you did get a little bit of an
19:06economic Boost from reopening and some
19:08of the stimulus measures and all of that
19:10but I think we're settling into a pretty
19:12normal Trend growth rate here and so I
19:15wouldn't expect phenomenal things out of
19:17the economy but I expect it's going to
19:18hold up pretty well although I do think
19:20there is some potential that even if
19:22it's not massive outperformance that the
19:25economy does exceed expectations this
19:27year because one of the things that we
19:29noted over the last few years was that
19:32recession expectations were so
19:34widespread and this goes all the way
19:35back to 20121 I mean you look at surveys
19:38of CEOs you look at investor surveys and
19:40so forth everybody was expecting a
19:42recession the recession expectations
19:44were as widespread as we've ever seen in
19:46fact we were prone to say if we get a
19:48recession it'll be the most widely
19:49anticipated recession ever and I think
19:52there are economic implications to that
19:54because if you're a corporate executive
19:56you just don't sit on your hands if
19:57you're expecting a recession and say
19:59well economy is going to go south we're
20:01just going to have to sit here and take
20:02it you do things to try and improve your
20:05outcomes and that type of a scenario
20:07anticipation is mitigation exactly we we
20:09called it anticipation is mitigation
20:11that's a phrase that uh that can fiser
20:13here Fisher Investments coined and what
20:15he meant by that was simply that because
20:18they're anticipating these bad economic
20:20outcomes they take action to bolster
20:23their balance sheets and rightsize their
20:25labor forces and do things that are
20:26going to help their companies weather
20:27those periods better that has the effect
20:30of mitigating the recession making it
20:32less severe than it would be otherwise
20:34because usually what happens with the
20:35recession is it happens it's a surprise
20:38people are scrambling to do these things
20:40during the recession it just makes it
20:42worse because that had been spread out
20:44over a longer period and actually
20:45happened before a recession hit we said
20:48well we think we probably don't get a
20:49recession but if we do it's probably a
20:51pretty mild one because of this
20:52anticipation is mitigation effect I I've
20:55tacked on a little bit to that and said
20:57well if anticipation was mitigation
21:00maybe now we're heading for a little bit
21:01of elation from companies because you
21:03can't play defense forever eventually is
21:05those economic clouds start to part a
21:07little bit and maybe you become a little
21:10less worried that a deep recession might
21:11be coming it's time to play offense
21:13again and so one of the more
21:16underappreciated I think optimistic
21:18features for the economy this year is
21:21that companies start spending again to
21:22grow whereas they've been kind of
21:24pulling back over the last few years and
21:26so I think that defensive posturing
21:29could very well turn into a mild
21:31offensive posturing this year which
21:33should help bolster the economy and with
21:35consumers still holding up very well you
21:36got strong labor markets you still have
21:38very good household balance sheets
21:39household net worth is an all-time high
21:42debt servicing costs are pretty low
21:44because people have locked in low
21:45mortgage rates for a long time I think
21:47what we've seen is despite a lot of the
21:49fears about tightening monetary policy
21:51and higher interest rates the economy is
21:53a lot more immune from that than people
21:56thought it was not entirely immune but
21:58the impacts the transmission of higher
22:00interest rates and higher monetary
22:02policy to the broader economy gets
22:04slowed down by fixed trade mortgages or
22:07companies locking in low interest rates
22:08on their debt and so forth and so it
22:10just isn't as powerful as I think people
22:12think it is our view is the economy
22:14holds up pretty well it's not Gang
22:16Busters but probably exceeds
22:19expectations so thinking about
22:21fundamentals economics political drivers
22:24sentiment drivers and our forecast are
22:27there any areas of weakness that could
22:30morph into risks to our forecast that
22:33you're watching right now yeah I mean
22:34there are always risks out there right
22:35this is a probabilities business we
22:37think that the highest probability is
22:39that you know things go pretty well this
22:41year but certainly there are scenarios
22:43where that gets thrown off course you
22:45know the way you described it is exactly
22:46how we look at things here we tend to to
22:49put our macroeconomic analysis into the
22:51buckets you mentioned what's the
22:52economic backdrop like what's the
22:53political backdrop like and then what's
22:55investor sentiment surrounding all of
22:57that because even great Economic Times
22:59don't mean great Equity markets if
23:00people are expecting too much and even
23:03pretty challenging times can be good if
23:05expectations are really low and even an
23:07imperfect world is exceeding those
23:09expectations right now across all of
23:11those silos things are looking pretty
23:14good economy is holding up reasonably
23:15well investor sentiment has improved but
23:17it's not euphoric and as I mentioned
23:19before in terms of where we are in the
23:21political cycle that seems to be fairly
23:23favorable as well but there are unknowns
23:25out there there's certainly things that
23:26could go a rock we are in the midst of
23:30changes to monetary policy which always
23:32Bears watching a lot of expectations for
23:35rate cuts out there I don't think that
23:37matters so much I think what we saw is
23:38rate hikes weren't as impactful to the
23:40economy as people think they'd be
23:42economy and in equities PR did pretty
23:44well as you know rate hikes were going
23:46on I don't think rate cuts are this
23:49Panacea that makes everything perfect
23:50either I think as you're going through
23:52these changes in monetary policy I don't
23:54want to anticipate that something's
23:56going to go wrong with that but Central
23:58Bankers are prone to blow it sometimes
24:00and so as we're undergoing these changes
24:02there's always the potential that
24:04there's some unended consequences
24:06somewhere maybe it's with some banking
24:08regulation that gets put in place maybe
24:10it's with some abnormal monetary
24:12policies that are being used and so
24:14forth so I don't want to anticipate that
24:16something's going to go wrong there I
24:17don't think it will but that's something
24:19that certainly Bears watching I think
24:21politically we're in for something we've
24:23seen before it's looking right now I
24:25don't want to get ahead of ourselves
24:26because there's a lot of politics
24:28remaining in 2024 but it's looking
24:30increasingly like we're going to re get
24:32a Redux of 2020 it's going to be Joe
24:34Biden versus Donald Trump most likely
24:36not a sure thing but that's looking
24:38likely I think a lot of people would
24:39like to see some fresher faces running
24:41this year but you know we've seen it
24:43before and so I think the worry that
24:45folks might have about either of those
24:47candidates is probably diminished
24:49because they've seen them in action
24:50they've both been president at this
24:51point they've both run against each
24:53other there's less surprise power but
24:55there is always the potential that
24:57something that goes goes crazy during an
24:58election season like this and so I think
25:00you got to pay a lot of close attention
25:02to politics and I think that's true
25:03outside the US as well generally
25:05speaking there are some geopolitical
25:09events we've seen a lot of them as I
25:11mentioned before none of them have had
25:13big negative global economic
25:15consequences but there are some
25:17scenarios where that could happen if
25:19things really escalated in the Middle
25:21East and you had somehow oil supplies
25:23get choked off I don't think that China
25:26Taiwan is going to evolve into much of
25:28anything anytime soon but if it did and
25:30taiwan's a huge part of the global
25:32supply chain especially for
25:33semiconductors so at the very least
25:35people could worry about that a lot and
25:37you know the worst case scenario could
25:39have some real impacts on the
25:41availability of semiconductors and so
25:43forth and so I think there are some
25:45things out there that bear watching but
25:47there's nothing out there that I would
25:49point to and say boy I I think people
25:51are missing this and that the
25:53probability of something real big bad
25:54and ugly catching Folks by surprise um
25:57is very high right now I think that's
25:59sort of a feature of where we are from a
26:01sentiment standpoint going back to that
26:03John Templeton curve people might be a
26:05little less pessimistic than they were
26:07but they're certainly not overly
26:08optimistic and when there's still a lot
26:09of worry about there folks looking
26:11around every corner for problems it's
26:13just harder to surprise them with
26:15something big bad and ugly they kind of
26:17assume big bad and ugly is coming all of
26:19the time it's when people are looking
26:20the other way and they get caught off
26:22guard by these things that they can have
26:23a real big negative impact and with such
26:26a hyperfocus on what could go wrong it
26:28just becomes all the harder for
26:30something to really catch investors by
26:32surprise but there are those worries out
26:34there we we got to monitor them but I
26:35can't point to anything and say here's
26:37something people are missing I think
26:38maybe if anything people are too worried
26:41about small things turning into big
26:43things well thank you so much Aaron for
26:46being here any closing remarks for our
26:48listeners I would just say we're looking
26:51forward to a good 2024 maybe not as
26:53strong as 2023 was from an equity
26:55standpoint but I I would always
26:57encourage folks you know to look for
26:59some of the good in the world there are
27:00a lot of good things happening there's a
27:02lot that's scary out there and worrisome
27:04but a lot of good things happening as
27:05well you know I think investors will
27:07increasingly celebrate those in 2024 but
27:11I would say this isn't a year to be
27:13excessively bold we've had years with
27:15big fluctuations in the economy big
27:17fluctuations in what's happening in the
27:19stock market I think this is overall
27:21going to be a little bit of a calmer
27:23year maybe not the huge spreads between
27:25growth and value and big and small and I
27:28don't know if that magnificent 7 will
27:30lead for the entirety of this year or
27:32not but if it does I would be surprised
27:34if it's the same magnitude and so I
27:36think investors ought to enjoy the bull
27:37market of 2024 I think it is a time to
27:40rain things in a little bit and just
27:42enjoy the positive market results and
27:44not get too over your skis in terms of
27:46making big bets in any direction and uh
27:49we're looking forward to this being a
27:50good year Well Aaron thanks so much for
27:52being here maybe we'll check in with you
27:54again around mid year sounds great
27:56thanks n that was our interview with
27:58Aaron Anderson sharing the firm's 2024
28:01Market Outlook thank you very much Aaron
28:04participating if you want to learn more
28:06about the topics we discussed you can
28:07visit the episode page of our website on
28:09Fisher investments.com you can find a
28:11link in the show description while
28:13you're there check out the marketminder
28:15section of our website where you'll find
28:17all of Fisher Investments latest Capital
28:19markets insights you can also subscribe
28:22to our marketminder digest which is our
28:24Weekly Newsletter for delivering those
28:25insights directly to your inbox
28:28and if you have questions about
28:29investing or Capital markets that we can
28:31cover in a future episode of Market
28:32insights email us at Market insights
28:35fi.com we'll do our best to answer them
28:38in a future episode of this podcast
28:41until then I'm nras thanks for tuning
28:44in investing in Securities involves the
28:47risk of loss past performance is no
28:50guarantee of future Returns the content
28:52of this podcast represents the opinions
28:54and viewpoints of Fisher Investments and
28:56should not be regarded as personal
28:58investment advice no assurances are made
29:01we will continue to hold these views
29:03which may change at any time based on
29:04new information analysis or
29:07reconsideration copyright Fisher
29:112024 nothing herein constitutes legal
29:14tax or investment advice please seek the
29:16guidance of a CPA when making tax
29:18planning decisions investing inse
29:20Securities involves the risk of loss
29:22past performance is no guarantee of
29:24future Returns the content of this
29:26podcast represents the opinions and
29:28viewpoints of Fisher Investments and
29:30should not be regarded as personal
29:31investment advice no assurances are made
29:34we will continue to hold these views
29:36which may change at any time based on
29:37new information analysis or
29:40reconsideration copyright fer
![Welp, Here's what the Fed *Just* Said [Fed FOMC Minutes]](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2Fl8u23oq1E9E%2Fhqdefault.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
