00:00This is the biggest solar plant in
the United States, located in Kern,
00:04California. The Solar Star Plant is over 8
square miles and has a generation capacity
00:09of 579 megawatts, powering around
255,000 homes. This is impressive,
00:16but about 6,500 miles away, in this remote
desert, there's a solar facility that could
00:21dwarf it … and just about every other
solar plant on earth. And it’s not alone.
00:26Like many deserts, China’s Kubuqi desert enjoys
persistent but predictable winds and around 280
00:32days of scorching sunshine every year. This makes
it a challenging place to live, farm or do just
00:37about anything else, but it makes it perfect
for solar and wind generation. That’s exactly
00:42what China is doing. This is the Kubuqi Renewables
Base. It’s roughly the size of 20 Central Parks,
00:48and when fully operational, it will supply
16 gigawatts to well over a million homes.
00:54Kubuqi is impressive, but it’s just
the centerpiece in a vast network of
00:58around 225 bases being built across China’s
western and northern deserts. Kubuqi and its
01:05sister projects are well on track to have a
generational capacity of 455 gigawatts(GW),
01:1160% of which will be solar and the other
40% will be wind. That’s staggering — to
01:16put it into perspective, that's more clean energy
generation capacity than is currently available
01:21in any nation outside China. A system that large
could almost cover India’s current energy needs by
01:27itself. 455 GW is equal to the combined green
energy generation of the the United Kingdom,
01:36Australia and Indonesia, plus the
total power capacity of Brazil.
01:41These bases are all due to come online
within the next year or two. That means
01:45China could dwarf the world’s current
renewable generation capabilities,
01:48but that raises the question, how has the world’s current biggest polluter
turned into green energy’s biggest champion?
01:54I’m Matt Ferrell … welcome to Undecided.
02:03This video is brought to you by
Incogni, but more on that later.
02:07Remember this? We’re back in the desert.
You probably already know that deserts
02:11are great for renewable energy generation.
Can’t have a solar farm without sun … and
02:15deserts have a lot of sun. Likewise
wind farms need wind, and the broad,
02:19warm, flat expanses of desert make for reliable
wind currents and predictable power generation.
02:25That all makes sense, but I’ve been a little
deceptive. I haven’t shown you a single shot
02:30of the Kubuqi desert just now. These are from
the Ulan Buh, Tengger, and Badain Jaran deserts,
02:36which are all also in China. It just so happens
that over a fifth of China’s landmass is desert,
02:40and it’s one of the largest countries in the
world. What I’m trying to say is China has a lot
02:44of room to work with, and as we mentioned earlier,
deserts aren’t exactly valuable territory. So,
02:50the nation has leveraged the cheap real estate
and surplus of sand to acquire huge tracts of
02:54land that it's actively turning into these
massive renewable bases. This helps drive
02:59down the price of solar and wind power. China
has the resources and space to build a lot of
03:04cheap solar and wind energy, but there’s
a more obvious factor at play here too.
03:08Back in the 90’s, China saw a financial
opportunity in serving Germany’s growing
03:12demand for solar panels. Thanks to nearby raw
materials and the structure of its supply chain,
03:17China was able to produce a ton of affordable
solar panels. Other solar companies around the
03:21world didn’t like the government subsidies and
incentives the Chinese government was leveraging.
03:26In response, many countries imposed tariffs on
Chinese-made solar panels in the 2000s. However,
03:32China was able to pivot and grow its own
domestic renewables program. This drove
03:36domestic demand for solar panels and turbines.
As Chinese economic and industrial power grew,
03:41demand for renewables grew right alongside it.
03:43So how did China build their renewable energy
bases? Cheap access to a lot of green technology,
03:49lots of manufacturing power, and lots of
land ideal for solar and wind generation.
03:54But _how_ China is these bases isn’t as
03:57interesting as _why_ China is
rapidly building these bases.
04:01This is a big reason why China is going so
big on renewables. This is Beijing in 2021,
04:07one of the biggest cities in one of the most
powerful countries on Earth … and it’s facing
04:11a crippling blackout. And this wasn’t the only
blackout. What was that? That year the world faced a coal
04:18shortage due in part to the ongoing pandemic.
More than half of China’s energy comes from coal,
04:24which meant that the shortage forced parts
of China to go dark. Droughts also meant
04:29hydroelectric plants were struggling to
keep up with demand. As you can imagine,
04:33that was bad for both Chinese citizens
and the country’s economy at large.
04:38Then there’s this. Here, again, is Beijing
and it’s not out of power this time. It’s just
04:44covered in a thick, toxic cloud. Industry isn’t
clean. It needs a lot of power and the fastest
04:50and easiest way to get power is the Dark Side
(I mean fossil fuels). And if China’s massive
04:58industrial sector wasn’t power-hungry enough,
they also have a massive population that needs
05:03electricity too. Most of which, again,
comes from fossil fuels, which results in
05:07pollution like this. Not the kind of imagery
an ascendant global power wants to project.
05:13While we’re on the subject of fossil fuels,
China is the world’s second-largest consumer
05:16of oil. They burned through over 13 million
barrels per day in 2023, while only producing
05:22around 4 million. Including strategic reserves,
this had led China to import around 11.4 million
05:28barrels of oil per day in 2023, which comes with
a hefty price tag. Sure would be great if they
05:34weren’t reliant on others for their energy needs.
I think you can see where I’m going with this.
05:39So why is China adding 455 GW of renewable
energy? Lots of economic reasons,
05:44protecting the health of their
citizens, energy independence,
05:47and international prestige to name a few.
Gosh, it’s almost like there’s just a lot
05:51of benefits to going green. And if it’s
possible for this massive polluter to turn around,
05:57can other countries do it too? Are there
lessons we can learn from China? And what
06:01does such a massive jump in green energy
generation mean for the rest of the world?
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channel. So back to what we can learn from China.
07:16The installation of bases like
the one in Kubuqi has analysts,
07:19like those from the Centre for Research on Energy
and Clean Air (CREA), all but guaranteeing that
07:24Chinese emissions and fossil fuel use will
not only fall next year, but enter “into an
07:29extended period of structural decline.” This
is due not just to these bases coming online,
07:35but the growth of other greentech industries
in China, like renewable batteries and electric
07:39vehicles. China is now hitting their 2030
reduced emissions goal five years ahead of
07:44schedule. This gives me hope that they’ll be able
to hit their zero-emissions goal in 2060 as well.
07:50If one of the largest consumers of fossil fuels
can do it, then the rest of us can too, right?
07:55More immediately, all these plants coming online
should mean less polluted air not just for China,
08:00but its neighboring countries … and maybe more.
If China continues to build these facilities,
08:05and the technology continues to improve, there
are opportunities for these neighbors to buy
08:09surplus clean energy from China. Countries
like Mongolia that are currently China’s
08:13major coal sources are acutely aware of China’s
greenification. They’re trying to find alternative
08:18ways to generate energy and income as coal
demand collapses. Mongolia shares the Gobi
08:24desert with China and their side of the Gobi
is just as capable of generating that amazing
08:28solar and wind energy. There's an opportunity
here for China to export not just the energy,
08:33but the energy generation expertise
and material to these neighbors. It’s
08:37flipping the script … but these opportunities
aren’t just limited to China’s neighbors.
08:41Since 2013, China has been making economic and
literal inroads to much of the world (especially
08:47the global south) with its Belt & Road Initiative
(BRI). It’s like China’s attempt to make a sort
08:53of neo-Silk Road.’ Basically, China builds up
these countries’ infrastructure in exchange for
08:58favorable access to their natural resources. Under
the BRI, China can potentially build up the green
09:04infrastructure of these countries too. Though I
have to point out that the BRI is controversial.
09:09Proponents and the World Bank have noted that BRI
involvement can raise a country’s GDP by upwards
09:14of 4%. It can also boost the world’s economy and
gives these countries access to infrastructure
09:19development that, in many cases, wouldn’t normally
be available to them. Detractors have called it a
09:24form of neocolonialism, and have cited instances
where the program negatively impacted the local
09:29environment, involved displacing native peoples,
and even some really bad human rights abuses. Again,
09:35not a geopolitics channel, so I’m not gonna get
into it ... BUT … it brings up a good point.
09:42China is a global power on the ascent, and I’m
not suggesting they’ll bestow this energy or
09:46technology on their neighbors or allies simply out
of the goodness of their heart. Surely there will
09:51be some serious economic and political strings
attached. Is that trade worth it for improved
09:57infrastructure and access to green technology?
It's a complicated issue, and it’s not really for
10:01me to decide. I guess you could say I’m living
up to the name of the channel on that point.
10:06All of this assumes that what China is
doing at home is replicable elsewhere,
10:10which is certainly not always going to be the
case. Heck, even China is facing some serious
10:14problems. Check this out. Notice an issue? How
about now? Most of the renewable bases are in
10:21those far less populated regions in the
west while some of China’s biggest cities are
10:26on the east coast. It’s difficult to get all
that power from point A to a very distant point
10:32B without losing a lot in the process. China is
actively tackling this issue by developing ultra
10:37high voltage power lines. However, for the
time being they’re actually generating more
10:42renewable energy than they can use, which is
leading to curtailment. All the clean energy
10:46generation in the world doesn’t mean much
if it's not actually replacing fossil fuels.
10:51Still, there’s lessons to learn here. My home
country of the United States recently passed the
10:55Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which directs $500
billion in federal spending and tax breaks toward,
11:02unsurprisingly, reducing inflation. Over
half of that allotment is intended to go
11:06toward clean energy with another nearly $50
billion going toward manufacturing. Though
11:11no one can really match China’s manufacturing
power, we are not too far behind here in the
11:15US. Our western and northern regions are home
to deserts and grasslands ripe for solar and
11:19wind energy. We have our own installations
in many of these places already, and I’m
11:24glad the IRA seems to have learned from China’s
economic incentives, but I hope we go further,
11:28and create our own fully fledged clean energy
bases. Having everything from mining resources
11:33to manufacturing solar panels, wind turbines,
and batteries here in the US could drop costs
11:39and accelerate our adoption … and give us
a tremendous amount of energy security.
11:44No bones about it, this is an amazing step
in the right direction. And unlike a lot of
11:48stuff in the greentech space, the Kubuqi clean
energy base isn’t a work of futurology or the
11:53pitch of an exciting startup. It’s real,
it's working right now, and it's getting
11:58bigger. It has a bunch of sibling bases all
coming online in the next few years. China’s
12:03basically doubling the world’s renewable
generation overnight? What’s not to like?
12:09Well, it’s not an unalloyed good or success.
China’s emissions levels have continued to rise,
12:15and they’re still building coal plants to
supplement the intermittent power of their
12:19renewable bases. After a post COVID rebound
in CO2 output during 2023, some estimates are
12:25showing that China may have hit peak carbon.
2024 and beyond shows declining numbers … but
12:31building and permitting more coal plants in 2023
and beyond feels like two steps forward and one
12:37step back. As we’ve seen in places like Germany,
even methodical, well-planned attempts to entirely
12:42phase out coal by 2030 have been scrapped in
light of unforeseen geopolitics and energy crises.
12:48China already accounts for half the world’s
coal consumption, so it's worrying to see
12:52their government constructing even more
coal plants. As some analysts have warned,
12:56there’s a fight brewing in China
between renewables stakeholders,
12:59and fossil fuels stakeholders. It’s a familiar
fight we’re seeing everywhere around the world.
13:05I can only hope that renewables will
win — and do what I can back home.
13:09But what do you think about the rapid build
out of giant solar power plants like this?
13:13Jump into the comments and let me know. And
be sure to check out my follow up podcast
13:16Still TBD where we'll be discussing some of
your feedback. Thanks to all of my patrons,
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Your support really helps us to keep
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