00:00there's no need even to have a college
00:02degree okay at all or even high school
00:06the um I mean if somebody graduated from
00:09a great University that may be an IND
00:11that may be an indication that they will
00:12be capable of great things but it's not
00:15necessarily the case um you know if you
00:17look at um say people like uh bll Gates
00:21or Larry Ellison Steve Jobs these guys
00:24didn't graduate from college but if you
00:26had a chance to hire them of course that
00:28would be a good idea
00:30yeah so you know just looking just for
00:34evidence of exceptional ability um and
00:37if there's a track record of exceptional
00:39achievement then it's likely that that
00:41will continue into the future how would
00:43you educate your five boys actually I
00:47school yeah what kind of school could
00:50you describe to us sure it's I mean it's
00:51small it's only got 14 kids now and
00:53it'll have 20 kids in in September um
00:57it's called Ad Astra which means to the
00:59Stars that's maybe a bit different from
01:02from from most other schools is that
01:04there aren't any grades there's no
01:05there's no like not grade one grade two
01:07grade three type of thing and making all
01:09the children go in in the same grade at
01:11the same time like an assembly line I
01:13know um you know cuz some people love
01:15English or languages some people love
01:18math some people love music and uh and
01:22different abilities at different times
01:23it makes more sense to to cater the
01:25education to match their aptitudes and
01:28abilities so I think that's one
01:29principle how I describe myself um well
01:32I mean I I seem to have a a high innate
01:36Drive um and that's been true even since
01:40I was a little kid you know I really had
01:43a very strong Drive did all sorts of
01:46risky things when I was a kid that I
01:47like why did I do those things they
01:48crazy it's important to teach uh teach
01:52problem solving or teach to the problem
01:54not to the tools so this would be like
01:57let's say um you're trying to teach
02:00people about uh how engines work or you
02:03know you could start by a more a more
02:05traditional approach would be to say
02:06well we're going to teach all about
02:08screwdrivers and wrenchers and and
02:11you're going to have a course on
02:12screwdrivers a course on wrenchers and
02:14all these things and it's this is a very
02:17difficult way to do it a much better way
02:19would be like here's the engine now
02:21let's take it apart how are we going to
02:22take it apart oh you need a screwdriver
02:24that's what the screwdriver is for you
02:25need a wrench that's what the wrench is
02:26for um and then a very important thing
02:30happens which is that the relevance of
02:31the tools becomes apparent so all your
02:34five boys are in that school yes until
02:36when this is from so far it's only
02:40one-year-old uh they like it they like
02:42it yeah and you want to keep them away
02:46schools no I just didn't see that uh the
02:49regular schools just they weren't doing
02:51the things that I thought should be done
02:53like you know those two principles they
02:54weren't uh adhering to those principles
02:57so I thought well let's see what we can
02:59do maybe creating a school will be
03:01better and um I actually hired a teacher
03:05from the school they were at who also
03:07agreed with me that there was a better
03:08way to do it have they surprised you in
03:10a way of their Innovative thinking yeah
03:14it seems to be going pretty well um I
03:16mean the kids really love going to
03:17school I think that's a a good sign you
03:20know I mean I hated going to school when
03:21I was a kid it was torture um so the
03:25fact that they like they actually think
03:27vacations are too long like they want to
03:29go back to you know between Gates and JS
03:32andison all three of those were
03:33technologists but with different types
03:36skills you know JVS was obviously very
03:39good with Aesthetics um and uh you
03:44know understood technology of course um
03:48and he really understood what people
03:50wanted even when they didn't know
03:52themselves um and he was not afraid to
03:56you know break boundaries but I say like
03:59Gates would probably be better at uh you
04:02know sort of raw engineering and
04:04Technology than jobs but not as good on
04:09Aesthetics um but I mean for all of
04:12these guys they're obviously very driven
04:15um and they're very talented um and uh
04:19yeah and they're able to attract great
04:21people to build a company I care a lot
04:23about the truth of of things and trying
04:26to understand the truth of things I
04:29think so I think that's important um you
04:34know if you're going to come up with
04:35some solution then the truth is really
04:38really important I think
04:41um I try to think of I mean it's
04:44difficult toly come up with like things
04:45that are praise for oneself you know or
04:47like there's and there's bad and good
04:50here but um I think like sometimes
04:54they're just like the things that seem
04:55quite clear and obvious to me and I I
05:00it's I don't understand why they aren't
05:03so obvious to everyone the ability to
05:06attract and motivate great people is
05:07critical to the success of a company
05:09because a company is just that's it's a
05:11group of people that are assembled to
05:13create a product or service that's the
05:16company um we all sometimes forget this
05:19Elementary truth um and so if uh you
05:24know if you're able to get great people
05:26to join the company and work together
05:28towards a common goal
05:30and uh and sort of have
05:33a Relentless sense of perfection about
05:36that goal then you will end up with a
05:39product and if you have a great product
05:42lots of people will buy it and then the
05:43company will be successful yeah for
05:45really it's pretty straightforward
05:47really I mean yeah that's the reason for
05:50it I feel fear quite
05:52strongly uh but I um if the if what
05:56we're doing is what you know what I'm
05:58doing is I think is is important enough
06:00then I just uh override the fear mhm so
06:03but it's not as though I don't feel I
06:04feel it like more strongly than I would
06:06like if the stakes are high if it's
06:09really important then what should then I
06:12you know will overcome the fear and just
06:17um but essentially I mean I just drive
06:21overrides fear but I feel the fear it's
06:23kind of annoying I wish I didn't I wish
06:25I felt it less mhm SpaceX I thought had
06:28the lowest chance of
06:31success um I mean I thought both Tesla
06:34and SpaceX would fail at the beginning
06:36you know you you saw yeah sure really of
06:39course but nevertheless you put all your
06:41money in that in both I expected to lose
06:43it well technically what I I thought was
06:47well I'll take half the money from
06:48PayPal and if I lose half of it that's
06:51okay um uh but then of course the
06:55companies encounter difficulties and
06:56then I have a choice of the either the
06:59let the company die um or put you know
07:03all the money into the companies and
07:07so I really didn't want the companies to
07:09die so I put all the money in the
07:10companies yeah and then had to borrow
07:12money for friends to pay living expenses
07:16to North America was my best idea okay
07:20cuz I think these things would not have
07:24um any you know almost anywhere else
07:27it's really hard to start a company uh
07:30but you know and particularly California
07:33silan Valley is very conducive to
07:36Startup companies um and
07:43yeah you know whenever I read books in
07:45South Africa it would seem like The
07:47Cutting Edge of Technology was in silken
07:50Valley and so that that's what I wanted
07:52to come and I wanted to move move to
07:55this mythical place okay I overall I
07:58think I'm pretty pretty pretty happy
07:59with what you know where things are it's
08:03honestly he's such a smart guy and he's
08:06really the most driven person I think
08:08I've ever met when I first got hired by
08:10SpaceX we did a interview with 60
08:12minutes and they interviewed Elon and
08:14myself and Scott P was the anchor he
08:17talked to us and he said to me why did
08:19you leave NASA and come work for SpaceX
08:21you had like the best gig in the world
08:23you know going up on rockets and stuff
08:25why would you do that I said well if you
08:26can go back in time and you were a young
08:28engineer and you had the opportunity to
08:29like get in at the ground floor and work
08:31with Howard Hughes when he was like
08:33doing all the crazy stuff he was doing
08:34in his day wouldn't you want to be a
08:36part of that but then I realized as soon
08:37as I say that like oh my God I just made
08:39a terrible strategic error I compared my
08:42boss to Howard Hughes you you know
08:43things didn't end up that well for
08:45Howard he went crazy right he went kind
08:46of crazy became washed his hands too
08:48much and germaphobe he was peeing in
08:50jars we were driving in a rental car
08:53Just the Two of Us in Florida we were
08:55had a meeting at Nasa and we were
08:56driving back to the airport to get on
08:58his airplane to come back to LA LA and
08:59I'm driving the car he's sitting in the
09:01passenger seat and I said hey boss uh
09:03remember that time we're on TV and I
09:05compared to that Howard Hughes you know
09:07I just want you to know I was comparing
09:08you to the young dashing Starlit dating
09:12Howard Hughes not the old decrepit peing
09:14and jars fingernail guy and all I got
09:16back was silence and now I'm really
09:17scared right I'm sitting there like
09:19waiting for him to say something and
09:21Elan will do this and and I he did this
09:22on your show right he he kind of like if
09:24you if you pose to him a serious
09:26question he'll consider it and he'll
09:27kind of go into this almost like a
09:29trance he'll stare off into space as and
09:31you can see the wheels turning he's like
09:32focusing all of his intellect which is
09:34considerable on this one question so I
09:36waited and then he turned back to me and
09:38he said I don't think it's an apt
09:40comparison why I'm curious why do you
09:42think that and he said well none of
09:43Howard's designs as brilliant as they
09:46were ended up really changing the way we
09:48live our lives so we don't send like he
09:51made the the Spruce Goose which is an
09:52incredible airplane was all wood you
09:55know trying to solve uh the problem
09:57during the war of rationing so that was
09:59his objection was not that like I was
10:01comparing him to some
10:02creep but that it's really important to
10:05him to have the legacy of drastically
10:08impacting the way all of us live our
10:10lives so kind of the way Steve Jobs did
10:12or or others that that really moov the
10:14ball down field for Humanity that's
10:16what's driving he's such an unusual
10:18human is is he thinking along these
10:21lines of charted out progress oh yeah
10:24yeah he's uh in fact he he measures
10:27pretty much every major decision by
10:29whether or not it brings the day when we
10:31have a self-sustainable colony on Mars
10:34sooner or later that's the prism by
10:37which he makes every like every single
10:39decision he makes he makes it through
10:40that prism Jesus yeah so he's got an
10:44idea and he'll keep pushing and and uh
10:46you know he gives us aggressive
10:47timelines that we have to work to and we
10:49work really hard to try to try to meet
10:50him it's hard when you're doing stuff
10:52that this do this complicated to predict
10:54exactly how long it's going to take so
10:57you know we end up often fall falling a
10:59little bit behind but we do our best
11:01that's the the case though with
11:02everything that's that crazy right he's
11:04doing so many different things at the
11:05same time it it's it's almost impossible
11:08I mean he does have all the advantages
11:10of wealth which helps you know so like
11:12he'll have meetings with us and he'll
11:14walk out of his last meeting and he'll
11:15walk across the street to Hawthorne
11:17airport hop on his jet and he's at Palo
11:19Alto in a couple hours and he can be
11:21first thing in the morning at Tesla
11:23right uh and he's got a staff to helps
11:25him and you know he's got those
11:27advantages um but he he uh that isn't in
11:32any way describe what he or or that
11:37doesn't explain why he's able to do what
11:38he does I don't know how he does it to
11:39be honest well he's the next stage of
11:42humanity yeah if if people are evolving
11:45he's he's like looking at us from the
11:47next spot he's like hey guys uh I've got
11:49some ideas yeah I mean he's just an idea
11:52Factory and and um he his uh uh what
11:57What's really remarkable to me is is is
11:59the breadth of his knowledge I mean I've
12:00met a lot of super super smart people
12:03but they're usually super super smart on
12:04one thing and he's able to have
12:07conversations with our top Engineers
12:09about the software and you know the most
12:12Arcane aspects of that and then he'll
12:14turn to our manufacturing engineers and
12:17and have discussions about some really
12:19esoteric welding process for some crazy
12:22alloy and and he'll just go back and
12:24forth and his ability to do that across
12:27all the different techn Oles that go
12:29into rockets and cars and everything
12:32else he does that's what really
12:33impresses me well also the lack of
12:35burnout cuz he's been doing it at this
12:37incredible rate 16 hours a day for how
12:40long his whole life I think that's nuts
12:42I know and he's still hungry for it and
12:44he and he's still taking on these new
12:46projects and new ideas and yeah you know
12:49at that pace seven seven years was about
12:51as like as much as I could
12:53take I was like I I need to do something
12:55else yeah I just don't I you know I mean
12:58I'm very happy he exists you know yeah
13:01but he he very confusing to me I just
13:03feel so stupid when I'm around him you
13:07know the conversations I've had with
13:10them like God damn I'm dumb no no you
13:12got to do what you got to do with what
13:16got I won't go that far so his uh his
13:21ultimate goal is to uh create some sort
13:24of a colony on Mars but he believes that
13:27this technology will continue continue
13:29to expand to the point where we will be
13:31leaving our solar system we will be
13:33making human trips into other solar
13:37systems into actual deep space yeah I
13:40mean certainly hopefully that's you know
13:42at some point if we're going to survive
13:45you take the really Long View you know
13:46the solar system is not going to last
13:48forever right it's going to last plenty
13:50long if and if my kids are listening at
13:51home don't worry they're freaking out
13:53right now especially 2-year-old oh no
13:55daddy said we're going to die no we got
13:57plenty of time couple billion years kids
13:59relax it's not in our lifetime they're
14:02so funny but uh but eventually uh we're
14:05going to have to find a new home if
14:07we're going to last forever and we all
14:09hope that we last forever as a species
14:10right so um or at least most of us do so
14:14uh yeah eventually we got to get there
14:16but we got plenty of time in in the in
14:17the short term the important thing is at
14:19least getting out so we're not in just
14:21one place in the solar system because
14:24this you know something bad could happen
14:26to this planet sure and we got no backup
14:29right particularly if there is a natural
14:31situation super volcano asteroid impact
14:35or you know we're doing a pretty good
14:37job of trashing this place all on our
14:38own yes we don't really need an asteroid
14:41to hit us uh we're we're kind of going
14:43down the road of of making this place
14:45and uninhabitable well what we need is
14:46someone like Elon who concentrates on
14:49the solutions I mean he's obviously got
14:51a full plate many full plates but
14:54someone like him to concentrate on
14:57solutions to some of the envir
14:58enironmental problems that we've created
14:59for ourselves here well that's really
15:01that's that was the thought behind Tesla
15:03I mean so so Tesla is kind of like plan
15:05a save this planet and SpaceX is kind of
15:07plan B uh if you look at it that way
15:11it's just so weird to have a guy like
15:12that amongst us yeah you know especially
15:15have him as your boss it was really
15:17weird have you talked to him at all
15:19about simulation Theory we never the
15:22thing is when every time I talk to him
15:23we focused on and this is what he does
15:25you know he he focuses on the thing that
15:27we are working on MH so he just that's
15:31one of the ways he does his time
15:32management that's one of the ways he is
15:34able to do all these things it's like he
15:35doesn't sit around and and and and and
15:38Bs with you about like what's going on
15:41with um was it noral link the company
15:43where he's making the chips that go in
15:45your head oh that's right I forgot about
15:46that that's the other thing he does
15:47changing the way humans interface with
15:49data he never said to me like Garrett
15:50what do you think about having a chip in
15:51your head that like like never he
15:53doesn't do that he talks to the people
15:55who really know about chips and people
15:57and putting chips in people's head he
15:58talk talk to them about it so are you
16:00going to sign up for that
16:08face the other day I heard myself say
16:11yes why yes you may watch that episode
16:13of The Simpsons that they made about
16:16dad because the man in question their
16:19father you know my ex-husband or as I
16:21sometimes like to think of him my baby
16:26daddy is the Visionary Elon Musk of uh
16:33SpaceX I met him when uh I was 18 he was
16:38College he would call me up he always
16:41had classical music playing in the
16:43background and he would ask me out and I
16:49no and he would call me up again and he
16:51would ask me out and I would say no and
16:55and it went on like this until we ended
16:57up living together in an apartment in
16:59the Bay Area which we shared with uh
17:02three roommates and a miniature daxon
17:06train and by the time we divorced we
17:10were living in a house in balair with no
17:13roommates and a miniature daxon who
17:18trained so it's a really funny Simpsons
17:24episode Elon has this uh meaningful
17:26relationship with Homer it's very
17:30romantic and at one point the Smithers
17:33character says to another character that
17:35somebody like Elon must have a darkness
17:38in his soul this line leaped out at me
17:41because I actually think a lot about
17:42creativity and darkness and the larger
17:45than life nature of these people that we
17:47call Visionaries and Geniuses or as my
17:52Genai and and darkness does not have to
17:56mean evil you know it can refer to to
17:59anything that has not yet been brought
18:02light that lives in the space beyond
18:05boundaries beyond our comfort zone where
18:08a lot of us do not want to
18:10go the writer Lucy H Pierce has a quote
18:13that I like a lot she says as creatives
18:16our job is to uncover what lies in the
18:19darkness and give it new life new
18:23identity and I realized that artists and
18:25entrepreneurs are a lot alike and that
18:28they are both obsessed with creating
18:30something out of nothing with pulling
18:32value from the dark so when I Was
18:35preparing this talk I uh said to Elon
18:37you know so do you have any advice that
18:40I could maybe give to Bright Young
18:41things in the audience who might want to
18:43like grow up to be you one day and he
18:46did say something which I'll get to at
18:47the end but he also said you know I
18:50don't know if they would still want that
18:53if they really knew what it's like to be
18:57me and it made me think that before we
19:01call these people Visionaries before
19:03they have that kind of success we have
19:05other words for them we call them you
19:11Outsider socially awkward
19:19out during my years with
19:22Elon I became familiar with a distinct
19:26and deeply tribal mental
19:33engineers and once when my dad came to
19:36visit I was taking him to see Elon at
19:38elon's first company at zip 2 and we
19:41were crossing through the office Park
19:42and we saw these lanky dudes and jeans
19:44and t-shirts and they were racing these
19:48remote controlled Contraptions around
19:49the parking lot and banging them into
19:50cars and my dad said to me oh are these
19:53engineers and I said no dad these are
19:59and when Ela and I would
20:01travel and we had to fill out those um
20:04forums of Customs that wanted to know
20:06occupation you know Elon never wrote
20:08down CEO or king of the world
20:12or Studley International
20:18engineer and he wore jeans and t-shirts
20:21work and whenever we went shopping for
20:24clothes or later consulted with the
20:26stylist whose name was Morton
20:29he would say no no you don't understand
20:31I can't look cool or hip because I have
20:36engineer and one of the things that he
20:39me although I don't know if it's as true
20:47then was that Engineers could not quite
20:51out why it was that the suits made the
20:54big money when it was the engineers who
20:55actually built the stuff that they were
20:58and meanwhile the suits would listen to
21:00the engineers talk and they would have
21:01no idea what they were
21:03saying and that's when I realized that
21:05Elon was somebody who had learned to
21:08speak both languages and he could move
21:10between the tribes because he was an
21:11engineer in a suit and he brought
21:16worlds and this is what an engineer does
21:18I mean this is what a Visionary does
21:21they not only creat something new but
21:22they become the living embodiment of it
21:24they don't just tell us a new story they
21:29and soon they don't even have to open up
21:30their mouths they just walk into the
21:38room I recently read a profile in Elon
21:41and he's quoted as saying something to a
21:43friend and this happened during the uh
21:46time we were still married together and
21:47he says something to this friend that he
21:48never said to me and he was saying that
21:50he was prepared to sacrifice everything
21:53his entire Fortune to get a rocket into
21:55orbit and he said I don't care if
21:58Justine and the kids and I end up living
22:01in Justine's parents' basement I'm going
22:04happen and so I read this and I kind of
22:07wanted to go back in time and go up to
22:09him and take him by the shoulders and
22:11look him very seriously in the eyes and
22:13say have you seen my parents'
22:18basement so I'd like to wrap up by um
22:23advice which is to always go beyond
22:29passing tests to always go deep into the
22:31underlying principles of a subject to
22:33track any problem down to the root cause
22:36Buri it in the dirt in the
22:38dark and I would add to that and say be
22:41brave enough be bold
22:43enough and be insane enough to see
22:46things more completely more vividly more
22:48fully than everybody else around
22:50you and refuse to look away from what
22:53you see and what you know even if people
22:56want to burn you at the stake
22:59because Visionaries they take all that
23:01passion and their badass
23:04personalities and their Mad Skills and
23:06the Mastery of their chosen subject
23:08matter and they use it to put themselves
23:10on the line unlike anybody else you'll
23:14meet and it's this that allows them to
23:17open up Windows into another deeper
23:19reality in which transformation is
23:20possible and things of a happen on a
23:24basis because in the beginning we don't
23:28trust them because we think they're
23:29crazy but by the end we trust them
23:33because we know they're crazy they're
23:35crazy enough to accomplish
23:37anything and risk it all in order to
23:40bring us something new to believe
23:45make lousy husbands and terrible wives
23:50friend who never sends you a birthday
23:52present and forgets to show up for
23:54coffee but they bring light to the dark
23:58and they show us the
24:00universe keep the channel open thank
24:07you given enough time humanity will go
24:10extinct because the cter point will be
24:11Humanity will live forever and I think
24:13that's just unlikely so whether there
24:14will be some other form of Consciousness
24:16that evolves after Humanity I I hope so
24:18but we don't know for sure it would be
24:20wise not to just assume that oh if we're
24:22gone I thought there'll in the future be
24:24some other form of Consciousness maybe
24:26maybe not earth 1 half billion years old
24:28um the sun is slowly expanding as the
24:30sun expands over millions of years the
24:32temperature Earth will rise and
24:34eventually the sun will engulf Earth and
24:36and gr everything everything will be
24:38incinerated there there's different
24:39different schools of thought here but
24:40things may get hot enough on Earth
24:42within maybe 500 million years where
24:44Earth may be uninhabitable that's sort
24:47of a combination of the various cycles
24:49of Earth because on a very geological
24:51time scale Earth actually has has gone
24:53through snowball phases and and and and
24:55sort of very hot phases and if you have
24:58a very hot phase of both combined with
24:59the sun expanding that that that could
25:02really be a mass extinction event and
25:04one of things like for for an earth
25:06timing standpoint 500 million years
25:07would only be 10% longer than Earth has
25:10existed thus far therefore if
25:11Consciousness or civilization had taken
25:1310% longer to evolve it wouldn't have
25:15evolved at all a lot of time scale we're
25:18kind of making it just just in time and
25:20like the thing that tends to happen is
25:21like once the birth Way start going down
25:23it seems to accelerate in it downward
25:25trajectory like Japan is leading IND
25:27here say they're about to collapse
25:30population collap they lost 600,000
25:33people last year like negative 600,000
25:35last year and Japan is like pretty close
25:37to being the long most like their life
25:40expectancy is like 85 so like that's the
25:43only thing not that was what was keeping
25:45the population priting
25:47before now despite having like the
25:49world's longest lifespan they're still
25:50losing population oh wow saying
25:52something yeah it was saying something
25:54so uh seems to me the rate of that
25:57decline I mean is is such one that's
25:59going to be not really able to be turned
26:01around we kind of got a plan for what we
26:02do in spite of it happening yeah like
26:05well if that Trend continues Japan's
26:06just going to flat out disappear as as
26:08will most countries in the world I'm
26:11just saying if that Trend continues
26:12hopefully it doesn't but if it does this
26:14is going to be I don't know what China's
26:16going to do like China's going to have
26:17like a period of time of great
26:20Prosperity over like the next 10 years
26:22uh and then but Transit like roughly
26:25half replacement rate you know they they
26:27got rid of the one child policy several
26:28years ago then made it a two child
26:30policy now it's a three child policy
26:32okay growth rate unchanged and Japan
26:34never had a one child policy and they
26:35still went that path so the current
26:37trend is is not good from a bir way
26:39standpoint I'm try to set a good example
26:42M another the reason why we need another
26:43civilization on another
26:47yeah the number number of humans is it's
26:50not training well I think a lot of
26:52people are under the impression that
26:53like you know the current number of
26:55humans is unsustainable on planet and
26:56this is totally untrue
26:58yeah uh we could double number humans
26:59and be okay and still keep the rain
27:01forest the population density is
27:03actually very low and most parts of the
27:04world have no people in them so if you
27:07like fly over the country you know from
27:09like LA to New York or something and you
27:11look down and say like what percentage
27:13of the time if you dropped a bowling
27:14Bowl would you hit someone even in La
27:16like you think LA's got a lot of people
27:18but you look at the actual if if you
27:19like just looked at say what
27:21cross-sectional area is human like like
27:24the cross-section of like you know you
27:27take like several blocks in LA and and
27:29and make make the houses and cars
27:31translucent and and and look at okay
27:34from looking at from above what
27:36percentage of the cross-section of the
27:38area is is humans there almost nothing
27:43La interesting have you ever seen that
27:45giant ball of Flesh they did that if you
27:46combined every human into it New York
27:48City You' seen it right the big ball of
27:50Goo of like all of humans push into one
27:52thing it would like sit in central par
27:53that's it and like it's a little bit
27:55taller than the tallest skyscraper it's
27:56not very big at all you like a cuboid of
28:00humans on a single floor you could fit
28:02all humans uh in New York City without
28:05on on one floor without any even having
28:07what do you mean on one floor I mean
28:08like surface area yeah how thick would
28:10that human pie be no it's just one human
28:13toll I'm going say there's no human no
28:15without stacking if people like live in
28:16in some bustling City they think humans
28:19must be everywhere but actually
28:21uh there are very few cities like like
28:24no place in America has the density of
28:26Manhattan and then even if you got like
28:28a sort of what seems like a den City
28:29like La the actual cross-sectional area
28:31that's human is small like less than 1%
28:34of the of the area is human so that
28:37means that if you if you dropped a
28:38cannibal excl that doesn't bounce too
28:41much the probability of hitting a human
28:43is extremely low wow that's interesting
28:45we've had pieces from rockets and
28:46multiple Nations reenter the tanks and
28:49crash uncontrolled and not at anybody
28:51many times when we had the space tragedy
28:54like the on Entry it it it it ra debris
28:58across the entire United States and and
29:01I don't think there were any enturies at
29:03all like the entire yeah a lot of debris
29:07like they recovered most of the material
29:08from the shuttle um wow but and zero
29:12people were it were hit I believe and
29:14here's an interesting part of that is it
29:16was going not vertical it was going
29:18around the earth which increases the
29:19probability no it's it's it's it's
29:21coming in from over going par more or
29:23less parallel to the Earth surface and
29:25and and and and start start breaking up
29:28uh I believe over the US like a crop
29:29dust or or at least certainly like like
29:32none of the parts fell in the ocean when
29:33when you're going orbital you're going
29:34parallel to the surface you know roughly
29:3625 times the speed of sound
29:39so um the shells decelerating and
29:41breaking apart uh as it and and the
29:44debris is raining down on the US and no
29:46people were hit the population decline
29:50problem I think is possibly the biggest
29:53risk to civilization it's certainly one
29:54of the biggest risks um I first of all I
29:58think people really need to a lot of
30:00people think that there's too many
30:01humans on the planet and Planet can't
30:03sustain this number of humans this is
30:04absolutely not true we could double the
30:06population without any uh uh meaningful
30:11damage to the environment uh
30:14so you can put all the humans on Earth
30:17in this on in the city of New
30:19York um that that's that's the
30:22cross-sectional area of humans think fit
30:24they literally fit the city of New York
30:26with on on one floor you don't need high
30:27rises mhm um and if you if you're on a
30:32plane flight and you look down and you
30:33say what percentage of the time uh am I
30:37if I were to drop a a a ball that that
30:40where that ball would hit a person
30:42basically zero even in a city like like
30:44La uh which you think oh that's a
30:45crowded City but um so looking at from
30:49above what's the cross-sectional area of
30:51humans relative to the rest of the
30:53ground and it's much less than 1% in
30:56even in LA if you're in a big city
30:58environment and you you see a lot of
30:59people you sort of oh that's there must
31:00be sort of extrapolate that you
31:02everywhere but it's it's actually very
31:04rare to see a concentration of humans so
31:08uh humans is very SP Earth is very
31:11sparsely populated with humans uh
31:14there's not enough humans far from being
31:17too many and I think people people are
31:19still sort of um operating on the
31:21assumption that the population just
31:23growing like crazy when in fact the
31:24opposite is occurring um and and these
31:27numbers are easy to look up I mean
31:29they're just on the internet so yeah
31:32um and uh weigh the lowest both weight
31:35um in recorded history uh last year I'm
31:38always banging the baby drum uh cuz I'm
31:40like man civilization's going to you
31:43know collapse and no big deal yeah yeah
31:47I'm like where do you think people come
31:48from like some magical [ __ ] people
31:51Factory they got to come from somewhere
31:53and they take ages to
32:01at some point there's going to be a
32:02third world war after World War III who
32:04knows what's left after World War II
32:06let's race between do we become a
32:07multiplet species or World War III which
32:09one is first and if World War III is
32:11first and maybe we never get to another
32:13planet one of the reasons for World War
32:15III would be if one country has advanced
32:18AI technology and other powers want it
32:20or they're worried about some country
32:22gaining Advanced AI that would give them
32:24a strong advantage in war then they may
32:25be tempted to attack before the country
32:28that is developing the strong AI has
32:30that for use in in weapons technology
32:32certainly hope that SpaceX and Tesla are
32:34not forced to develop any kind of
32:36weapons technology obviously we would
32:37only do such a thing if it was the last
32:40resort I think that can be helpful in
32:42Conflict I try to take the set of
32:44actions that are most likely to improve
32:46the probability that the future will be
32:47good there are certainly some big risks
32:49that Humanity faces population collapse
32:51is a really big deal that I wish more
32:53people would think about the birth rate
32:55is far below what needed to sustain
32:58civilization it's current at its current
32:59level we need to take action on climate
33:01sustainability which is being done and
33:03we need to secure the future of
33:04Consciousness by being a multiplet
33:06species we need to address the
33:08essentially we it's important to take
33:10whatever actions we can think of to
33:11address the existential risks that
33:13affect the the future of of
33:15Consciousness most people in the world
33:17are operating under the false impression
33:19that uh that there are too many people
33:22um this is not true Earth could maintain
33:24a population many times at the current
33:26level and the birth rate has been
33:28dropping like crazy unfortunately like
33:30we have these like ridiculous population
33:32estimates from the UN that need to be
33:34updated cuz they just don't make any
33:36sense really you can just look at say
33:37what was the birth rate last year how
33:39many kids were born multiply that by the
33:42life expectancy and say okay that's how
33:44many people will be alive in the future
33:45and then say is the trend for both rat
33:47positive or negative it's negative
33:49that's the best case unless something
33:50changes with the both R giant meteor or
33:52super volcanoes or extreme climate
33:54change or World War III any one of a
33:57number of reasons but the probable
33:58lifespan of civilizational Consciousness
34:00as we know it which we should really
34:02view as this very delicate thing like a
34:04small candle in a vast darkness that is
34:07what appears to be the case we're in
34:08this vast darkness of space and there's
34:11this little candle of Consciousness
34:13that's only really come about after 4
34:15and A2 billion years I think this is
34:16important for maximizing the probable
34:19lifespan of humanity or Consciousness
34:21the birth rate on Earth is so low that
34:23we're facing civilizational collapse
34:24unless the birth rate returns to a
34:26sustain level population collapse is uh
34:29one of the biggest threats to the future
34:30of human civilization and that is what
34:32is going on right now take Japan for
34:33example I think population is roughly
34:35110 million but last year if you take
34:38the number of children born times the
34:40life expectancy which is 85 years it's
34:42very impressive life expectancy then
34:44Japan would have I think around 68
34:46million people roughly half of the
34:48current population that does not tell
34:50the full story because you would have an
34:52upside down demographic permit you
34:53already have an upside down demographic
34:55permit where you know a lot of old
34:56people very few young people and that
34:58upside down demographic permit is
35:00unstable that's also here why we need
35:01Alternatives you have recently presented
35:05Optimus human Robert uh and
35:08you shared Great Expectations what that
35:12could do for the world yeah could you
35:15explain a little bit your motivation I
35:17assume it's not only about the first
35:21visit to Mars that could be done by
35:24Optimus it is more than that a game
35:27changer in AI could you share a little
35:29bit your your vision yeah I mean with
35:32respect to Ai and Robotics so I always
35:34approach these things with some
35:35trepidation because I certainly do not
35:37want to play a hand in uh anything that
35:39could potentially be harmful to humanity
35:42humanoid robots they're clearly
35:43happening I mean you look at like Boston
35:45Dynamics they the demonstrations are
35:47better every year so there will be
35:49humanoid robots I mean the rate of
35:50advancement of AI is very rapid even if
35:53Tesla stopped doing AI that would I I
35:56think we're still on a track to develop
35:58artificial general intelligence many
36:00intelligence smarter than the smartest
36:02human I guess when I was kind of growing
36:03up I did have this like existential
36:05crisis where I was like what's the
36:06meaning of life is this old pointless is
36:09there any point in existing at all I
36:11read the varish religious texts and uh I
36:13read a bunch of the philosophers just
36:15couldn't really seem to find any any
36:16good answers and then I read hitra as
36:20Galaxy uh which is um really a book on
36:23philosophy but it's disguise as a book
36:27and the point Douglas Adams was making
36:29is that the that the purpose of life is
36:33to learn more to ultimately know what
36:36questions to to to learn what questions
36:38to ask about the answer that is the
36:39universe like that's the actual point is
36:41is to figure out the point at least that
36:43was my interpretation and so therefore
36:44we should take the set of actions that
36:46are likely to expand Consciousness and
36:48our understanding of the universe so
36:50that we can know what the meaning of
36:51life is or why we're here and how the
36:53universe came to be whatever is most
36:55likely to andure that the future is good
36:57for you know all of humanity it's not
36:59like there's no good that comes out of
37:01even a terrible situation there's some
37:03good that comes out of it but it's
37:04overwhelmingly bad it's just it's just
37:06really interesting to learn the lessons
37:08of History such that we do not uh repeat
37:10the the mistakes of the past generally
37:12I'm trying to take the actions that most
37:14likely lead to a better future for
37:16civilization I think that's like frankly
37:18the only like logical thing to do cuz
37:20like there's no there's no point in
37:21having like a good future without
37:23civilization if if civilization crumbles
37:25nobody's going to have a good future so
37:26I think we want to take the set of
37:28actions that maximize the probability
37:30the future is going to be good and then
37:31we understand more about the nature of
37:33reality in the universe I mean I don't I
37:35don't think we should try to have people
37:39long time for a very long time it would
37:42cause artification of society um because
37:46the truth is uh most people don't change
37:48their mind they just die and so if they
37:50don't die they we'll be we'll be stuck
37:55with old ideas and they won't Society
37:59advance um I think we already have quite
38:02a serious issue with
38:04theocracy uh where the the leaders of so
38:07many countries are extremely old look I
38:10mean in the US it's you
38:12know very very ancient uh leadership and
38:16it's just impossible to stay in touch
38:18with the the people if you're um you
38:23the you know if you're if you're like
38:26many generations older than them um and
38:29the founders in the US they put minimum
38:31ages for uh political office but they
38:34did not put maximum ages cuz they did
38:36not expect that people will be living so
38:38long but they should have um cuz you
38:41really want in order for a democracy to
38:44function well the leaders must be
38:47reasonably in touch with the bulk of the
38:49population and if you're too young or
38:51too old it's you can't say that you
38:52would be in touch I mean I certainly
38:57maintain uh health for a longer Peri
39:02um but I'm not afraid of dying I think
39:05it will come as a relief like what are
39:06the existential threats that Humanity
39:09faces um I we spent a lot of time
39:12talking about the birth rate thing um
39:14that that might be the biggest
39:16single threat to the future of human
39:19civilization then there's um you know
39:23artificial intelligence gone wrong is a
39:29um I think religious extremism is a
39:32concern so there's you know
39:35obviously uh environmental causes there
39:41education especially um science and
39:45education um Pediatric Health Care
39:55um you know uh hunger these days is is
39:59more of a political and Logistics
40:02problem than it is not having enough
40:04food there's a lot of food uh in fact
40:06you know in the US uh and many many
40:09countries the the issue is more obesity
