00:07crypto's recovery speed in this cycle is
00:09faster than ever before shaving over 33%
00:12of time from its cycle low to reach
00:14fresh cycle highs the corrections have
00:17also been speeding up at least so far
00:19and with momentum now back in the hands
00:21of short-term Bulls price may break back
00:23into fresh all-time highs sooner than
00:25expected even so my correction thesis
00:27has not yet been invalidated so in this
00:30video we will be reviewing the macro the
00:32shortterm the overall cycle the US
00:35dollar and exactly what needs to happen
00:36for us to see the bullish momentum shift
00:39back into the hands of the macro bulls
00:41for us to see some acceleration to the
00:42north side now we have a heap of ground
00:44to cover as we usually do but first up
00:45please remember that I'm not a financial
00:47adviser so I always do your own due
00:48diligence and research and past results
00:50are not indicative of future performance
00:52now before we get into cryptocurrency
00:54Bitcoin the macro cycle invalidation
00:56levels and all of that I want to start
00:58out here with the US doll which is
01:00trending higher on our lower term time
01:01frames as expected last week we were
01:04looking at the likelihood of breaking
01:05out of some resistance areas some
01:07strength on top of some 50% levels and
01:09here we are now breaking to Fresh Highs
01:11at least for our lower term time frames
01:13also getting on top of the all important
01:15trend line we've been tracking for this
01:16chart here now while the momentum
01:18remains in the hands of the bulls for
01:19the US dollar we're likely going to see
01:21continued pressure on cryptocurrency at
01:23least for the short to intermediate term
01:26now the invalidation of this little
01:27setup here at least in our lower term
01:29time frames is for us to see some price
01:31action back beneath around 103.5 in the
01:34very earliest sense but for our bigger
01:35picture time frames we do want to see a
01:37breakdown of this all important low
01:39coming in at just over 102 so for the
01:42time being we can still see our Trends
01:43are up our one day one bar and our 1day
01:46two bar Trends do have some Confluence
01:48there with showing bullish momentum
01:50which does increase the chance of our
01:52weekly time frame also turning back up
01:54now of course this isn't the be all and
01:56end all but it is very important to be
01:58tracking because anything priced in Us
02:00doll when there's no other supply and
02:01demand factors affecting the market we
02:04will see pressure on any assets price in
02:05US Dollars when this Market is trending
02:07higher so the next resistance overhead
02:09if we do see continued momentum is all
02:11the way up at around that 105 to 105 A2
02:14we can even get as high as 106 for our
02:15higher term time frames but just in
02:17terms of the most immediate pressure
02:18overhead we have a weekly swing top and
02:20some other macro resistance areas
02:22overhead so that's the next area to be
02:23expecting some price pressure in the
02:25market for the US dollar so we will
02:26continue to track this one really really
02:28closely for you guys now before we get
02:29into the macro time frame stuff the
02:31corrections and all the rest of it I
02:33want to start out here with the lower
02:34term time frames on the hourly chart now
02:36we have some Confluence here between our
02:381day one bar and our 1day two bar Trends
02:40and we've also seen our 4H Hour 1 bar
02:42Trend flip back up and also our 4H hour
02:45two bar Trend also turned back up so now
02:48when we're seeing Confluence across the
02:49board with multiple time frames it does
02:51increase the chance of our daily Trend
02:53also flipping back up meaning we'll see
02:55some longer lasting bullish momentum
02:57which may just get cryptocurrency back
02:59into fresh alltime highs or fresh cycle
03:01highs depending which altcoin you are
03:02tracking because of course if all the
03:04Market's going up we're going to be
03:05seeing some Confluence against other
03:06asset classes as well not just Bitcoin
03:08so that has been the biggest change over
03:10the weekend seeing our lower term time
03:11frames flip but we still don't have any
03:13confirmation by the way of that key area
03:15I've been talking about all of last week
03:17that $69 to $70,000 which I'll get to in
03:19a moment on our 4H hour chart now if you
03:21are wondering about the swing overlay
03:23the trend Confluence and all of that
03:24there's a link for the Tia G swing
03:26indicator in the description below where
03:27you can learn all about that how I use
03:29the tool but enough of the shield back
03:30to the charts it's no secret that the
03:32price has been trending higher you can
03:33see that very obviously with the higher
03:35lows on the chart whenever there's
03:36higher lows it is bullish and we're
03:38likely going to see continued bullish
03:39momentum until our Trends do start to
03:41flip it is mathematically impossible for
03:43us to see higher prices while this is
03:45red and of course it's not red now it's
03:47green so it does increase the chance
03:48we're going to be seeing a continuation
03:50until that color does change to either
03:51blank or red now while the high term
03:53time frame resistance overhead is around
03:55that $69 to $70,000 we do have a key 50%
03:58level in play at the moment from the
04:00all-time high down to the current low in
04:02the market now these 50% levels act as
04:04resistance when they are approached from
04:06the underside and typically we will see
04:08selling pressure pick up when the market
04:10does hit these levels and you can see
04:11that's exactly what's happening right
04:12now we've hit the 50% level from the
04:14underside some selling pressure is
04:16picking up at least for the lower term
04:17time frames of course it doesn't mean
04:18that the market has to dump from this
04:20price point it is just always an area
04:21I'm expecting some selling pressure to
04:23pick up now the opposite is true when
04:25the Market's trading on top of a 50%
04:26level I'm expecting buying to come into
04:28the market when it is approach from the
04:30overside now I've shown you guys many
04:31many times on the channel how this plays
04:33out in real time so we will continue to
04:34track this 50% level at the moment if
04:36you want to recreate this for yourself
04:38on your chart you just get the FIB
04:39retracement tool turn off all the
04:41settings other than 0 0.5 and one and
04:43that gives you the halfway point now in
04:45addition to expecting buying and selling
04:47to pick up around these levels depending
04:49which side of the line the price is
04:50approached from I also treat the market
04:52as relatively strong in the top half of
04:54the tool and relatively weak in the
04:56bottom half of the tool it seems overly
04:58simplistic but when you do a few
05:00different time frames together you will
05:01start to see the power of the strength
05:03and weakness in the market to do with
05:04these key 50% levels so for the time
05:06being on our lower term time frames you
05:08can see that we're hovering right around
05:09the 50% level bit of a balancing point
05:11but if we can start to see some closes
05:13and higher lows above this line I would
05:15like to see that on the 4H hour and
05:17daily chart considering how long the
05:18time frame is it does further increase
05:20the chance that the macro Bulls are
05:22going to be regaining back control of
05:23the market and we'll see some very
05:24strong bullish momentum to the north
05:26side you can see last time this happened
05:28which I also covered for you guys at the
05:29time we didn't see any higher lows above
05:32the line we hit the 50% level we did see
05:34some closes on our lower term time
05:35frames but again even back then I was
05:37talking about the 4H hour and one day
05:38chart which we didn't see the price drop
05:40back beneath the level we saw selling
05:42pressure pick up from the underside then
05:44we saw a bigger continuation to the
05:45south side of the market so now what I
05:47want to be seeing very clearly and
05:49simply is for some closes and higher
05:50lows on our 4H hour and one day chart
05:52above this particular line here and that
05:54does further increase the chance we'll
05:55be seeing a very solid continuation to
05:57the north side of the market now it's a
05:59little bit more clear on the 4H hour
06:00time frame here so again this is one
06:02we'll be staying very close to this week
06:04when we're looking at bitcoin's Price
06:05action that price point does come in at
06:19to $70,000 as a macro resistance area
06:23the previous cycle top all the way back
06:25from 2021 was $69,000 and we just can't
06:28forget about that number it does remain
06:29to be a very important price point in
06:31terms of resistance areas when we're
06:32looking at our technical analysis so of
06:34course we have that level on the chart
06:36then we've also got this area that was
06:37established just a few weeks ago at
06:39around $70,000 by the way of this
06:41resistance area from these multiple Tops
06:43on the chart so as we bring a few
06:44different time frames together we can
06:46see that the short-term bulls have
06:47regain control of the market by the way
06:49of these higher lows and the flip on our
06:51bullish momentum or at least by the way
06:52of our Trends our 4 out is trying to
06:54break higher as well we have that key
06:56area to do with $69 to $70,000 but we
06:58yet to see any confir above that zone
07:00for our higher term time frames which
07:02will really get the Bulls to Take Back
07:03Control on our macro time frames and
07:05some fast acceleration to break into
07:06fresh cycle highs and go significantly
07:08higher now in addition to looking at 50%
07:10levels as strength and weakness tools I
07:12do the same thing with trend lines as
07:14well and you can see on our lower term
07:15time frames here we're now on top of a
07:17couple of trend lines coming from this
07:19important lower top in the market taking
07:21place at just over 70 grand so we're now
07:23in the strong half of both 50% levels
07:25and also trend lines so we really want
07:27to see price action now hold above that
07:29$66,500 all of our lower term time frame
07:32Trends are very bullish we are looking
07:34out for those Clos and high lows above
07:35the line but if we don't get that
07:37immediately provided price action does
07:39hold Above This Zone here it is more
07:41likely very solid reaccumulation getting
07:43ready for some more bullish momentum if
07:45we break back beneath this level then is
07:47letting us know that we've maybe seen an
07:48intermediate top and the higher time
07:50frame correction May continue so that's
07:52the way I'm reading the market right now
07:53to do with these levels on the chart
07:54we'll step it up now to the Daily time
07:56frame which throughout this entire
07:57correction the two bar trend has
07:59remained up just really showing the
08:01resilience and strength behind the
08:02higher term time frames the weekly Trend
08:05isn't technically up well it does depend
08:06which exchange you are looking at but
08:08our two bar trend is still green it has
08:10not flipped to blank or red throughout
08:12this entire period so of course our
08:13higher time frame Trends are still
08:14holding together which is completely
08:16obvious on our weekly and monthly charts
08:19this has not changed at all so for as
08:20long as these Trends are pointing to
08:21Green it does let us know that any
08:23correction in the market is likely just
08:25a short-term correction for the macro
08:27Trend to continue which like we've been
08:28covering for 18 months now the macro
08:30trend is up we've been bullish for a
08:32very long time and we're still yet to
08:33see any reason to expect anything other
08:35than bullish momentum with corrections
08:37being shortlived in the market so our
08:39macro Trends do obviously remain up but
08:41back to the Daily time frame quickly
08:43here we can see that our daily two bar
08:44Trend does remain up and we are
08:46contending with that 50% level overhead
08:48where we are just seeing some short-term
08:49resistance and always remember that $69
08:51to $70,000 level is being one of the
08:53most important price points for our
08:54daily time frame for us to really see
08:56the macro Bulls Take Back Control where
08:58we see some continued momentum now this
09:00red arrow here is just the average
09:01correction from all the corrections in
09:03the bull market so far as you can see
09:06here around 21 to 22% so if we are to
09:08see an average correction that would get
09:10priced back to around that 56 to $57,000
09:12now I'm not saying that's what will
09:13happen we are just looking at the
09:15averages for what the Market's done so
09:16far now if it doesn't see a correction
09:18that far it is really just showing that
09:19the Bulls are regaining control at a
09:21much higher price at a much faster pace
09:23which again would further accelerate the
09:25chance of us seeing some really strong
09:26momentum to the upside so while I'm
09:28keeping this at the back of my mind to
09:29do with some strong acceleration to the
09:30north side of the market my analysis is
09:32still pointing to the likelihood of a
09:34larger correction to take place so that
09:36doesn't mean I'm not Trading long in
09:37this period at all it just means any
09:39long trades I'm taking I'm treating with
09:41caution because I'm expecting resistance
09:43to still be met until we do get back on
09:45top of that key area at 69 to 70k that's
09:48how I treat the markets when I'm looking
09:49at my analysis it's not about sitting
09:51out and doing nothing at all it's about
09:52looking at the probabilities and the
09:54likelihoods and so far it is still
09:56pointing to a larger correction to take
09:57place at least to do with my analysis
09:59until we get this invalidation overhead
10:01by the way of getting back on top of
10:02this Zone and starting to hold now
10:03before we take a look at the macro
10:04overall cycle I just want to sum up what
10:06I've been talking about for our lower
10:07term time frames and higher term time
10:09frames now on our lower term time frames
10:11Bulls are back in control we have
10:13resistance at that 50% level at around
10:16$7,300 it does look like we're going to
10:18be getting a further continuation on our
10:19lower term time frames until we get a
10:21break back beneath our trend line and
10:2350% level coming in around $66,500 a
10:26little bit below that's a little
10:28invalidation of the short shortterm
10:29bullish thesis if we to see price action
10:31back beneath that zone it does increase
10:33a chance that we have seen an
10:34intermediate top and we'll be coming
10:35back to retest some of these lower
10:37prices and potentially even going lower
10:38but until that comes about we have to
10:40treat the lower term time frames for
10:41what it is until these Trends do start
10:43to flip on our slightly higher term time
10:45frames our 4 hour and one day we have
10:48this Zone overhead at $69 to $70,000 so
10:51until we get on top of that price point
10:53I'm remaining cautious on the long side
10:54of the market because it is more likely
10:56going to be overcome with selling before
10:57we put in an intermediate top and
10:59continue lower and of course the
11:01invalidation of that is seeing those
11:02Clos and high lows around the Zone
11:04ideally above it but it's not out of the
11:05question if we just get above that 69k
11:07and start to hold that will be
11:09invalidating the correction thesis and
11:10increasing the chance of more momentum
11:12to the north side of the market in terms
11:13of the macro stuff the Cycles are still
11:15clearly up we haven't had any breakdowns
11:17on our weekly one bar two bar or monthly
11:19time frames just showing the real
11:21strength in the bull market so far so
11:23the macro cycle still does remain on
11:24track until we start to see some
11:25breakdowns on our macro Trends which
11:27could take many weeks if not months to
11:29actually play out if it comes about at
11:30all now I'm still expecting us to see
11:32higher prices before that does take
11:33place but the Market's going to do
11:35whatever it wants to do and we just have
11:36to be following the market and the price
11:37action but at least so far the cycle
11:39Still Remains on track with no reasons
11:40for it to be breaking down just yet now
11:42for a look at the macro cycle we're
11:44looking at the speed of the bull market
11:46how long it took to get to Fresh
11:47all-time highs and what does come next
11:49or what's typically come next in these
11:51scenarios here now from cycle 2 which is
11:53this cycle here it took 103 weeks to get
11:56from the cycle low to Fresh cycle highs
11:59cycle 3 it took 102 weeks this is cycle
12:023 here from the cycle low to Fresh cycle
12:04highs and here we are 67 weeks in from
12:07the cycle low breaking into fresh cycle
12:09highs now what's uncharacteristic of
12:11this particular cycle here is that we've
12:13already seen an extremely short
12:15correction whereas every cycle previous
12:16to the current cycle we' seen at least a
12:193 we correction but more commonly a 1
12:21month or more correction before getting
12:23to Fresh cycle highs so we're already
12:25seeing the momentum breaking to Fresh
12:26cycle highs the speed of the corrections
12:28and so far in the current correction
12:29we've only been down for 6 days so it's
12:31not out of the question for us to see a
12:33continuation North before putting in a
12:34bigger correction because as you've seen
12:36at the previous couple of Cycles once we
12:38broke into fresh cycle highs there was a
12:3910-day correction a 7-Day correction and
12:42then the momentum just did continue
12:43North in the market so certainly it's
12:45not out of the question with how fast
12:46the Market's actually been moving but as
12:48I do believe we are mimicking most cycle
12:502 in the current cycle once we got that
12:53break into fresh all-time highs the
12:54market still took a few months to kind
12:56of chop around before we got that
12:57continuation on the high term time
12:59frames in a very strong way so tracking
13:01the speed of the recovery the
13:02corrections and the overall picture of
13:04the cycle of course does remain to be
13:05extremely important so we can really
13:07pinpoint where we potentially are and
13:09what's coming up next and something GS
13:10I've been talking about at length is to
13:12do with the speed of the corrections
13:13into the peak of the cycle every single
13:16cycle the Market's got really quick in
13:17terms of short-term Corrections in time
13:20and that's potentially what we're going
13:21to be seeing again in this cycle here
13:22there's a very high probability we'll be
13:24seeing two we Corrections or less as we
13:26do get into the peak so while we have
13:28seen a very short correction Direction
13:29now we are still more likely at this
13:31phase of the market here after just
13:32breaching cycle highs meaning we still
13:34have a way to go before getting to that
13:36cycle Peak we have to get through this
13:37little period right now and back into
13:39fresh cycle highs so we can mark this
13:41one off as just another correction in
13:42the market and now once again the
13:43trigger for me is getting back on top of
13:45this Zone here we do still have
13:47resistance at the 50% level where
13:48selling is more likely going to increase
13:50which is exactly what we're seeing so
13:52far so of course I'm going to remain
13:53very close to the lower term time frames
13:55and higher term time frames as we do
13:57press on with the cycle and of course
13:59the correction and all of that
14:00invalidation levels momentum breakout
14:02levels and all the rest of it that's all
14:04I've got for you in today's market
14:05update we covered a heap of ground as we
14:07always do if you want more from us in
14:08Tia crypto our free report comes out in
14:11about 48 hours from now so make sure you
14:12hit that link at the top of the video
14:14description that's it for me today
14:15wishing you more health wealth and
14:16happiness until next time I'll catch you
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