00:00 nothing set on the hive mind is a
00:01 recommendation to buy or sell Securities
00:03 or tokens this podcast is strictly for
00:05 informational purposes only and any
00:07 views expressed by anyone on the show
00:09 are solely our own opinions not
00:22 advice all right hey everyone my name is
00:26 Jose masedu and welcome to another
00:28 episode of the hive mind podcast the
00:30 goal of the podcast is to provide an
00:32 inside look into what we like to call
00:33 the deli hive mind bringing together
00:35 some of our brightest Minds from each of
00:37 the divisions to share insights Alpha
00:39 and [Â __Â ] posts today with us we have
00:41 cedus parabus newly promoted to head of
00:44 research uh congrats cedus on that I
00:47 think I'll have some words to say about
00:48 it later um we have Yan liberman
00:51 managing partner at Deli Ventures and we
00:53 have Ventures associate Duncan also
00:55 known as flood capital on Twitter
00:57 prodigious shitcoin scavenger and
00:59 investor I Deli Labs our protocol R&D
01:02 arm focused on incubating and
01:03 accelerating New web3 Primitives so it's
01:06 been a hectic week in in in crypto I
01:08 think we wanted to start by talking
01:10 about the the Jupiter launch but maybe
01:12 before that cedus you want to say some
01:13 words I know research is is is hiring
01:16 yeah so research is hiring right now
01:18 looking for uh infra and defi analysts
01:22 at least at least one of each so I have
01:24 a tweet uh on my profile pin to my
01:27 profile that you can find on Twitter we
01:29 had a a Job Link in there and really
01:31 what I want is if you are interested in
01:33 one of these roles just write something
01:35 and like have an opinion about something
01:38 the the one thing we really want when
01:40 we're hiring is people who have opinions
01:42 and can take a lot of information to
01:44 still it down and kind of tell readers
01:48 matters um and so that's what I'm
01:51 looking for I don't care about like your
01:53 background or anything if you write
01:55 something really good and you put it
01:57 through and I read it and I and I like
01:59 like it that puts you in a good spot so
02:02 that's all I'll say um yeah if you're
02:04 interested to check it out we have got a
02:05 lot of applicants so far so that's good
02:07 nice excited for your Reign at the the
02:10 head of research and if anyone wants to
02:13 join the best research team in crypto
02:14 this is a good good shot at doing it so
02:17 who wants to kick us
02:18 off you didn't mute for that by the
02:26 loud I turned off can't hear guys
02:31 anymore I thought you purposely just
02:33 like unmuted and sneezed and then muted
02:36 again just like sorry guys just let me
02:40 just yeah what are we talking we want to
02:42 talk the outage first s's outage or Jupe
02:45 or what uh I think let's go
02:46 chronologically so we could start with
02:48 Jupe maybe um who who wants to start us
02:51 off on H your thoughts on the Jupe
02:53 launch I mean okay I'll start I it was I
02:56 don't know it's was kind of weird um the
02:58 the launch pool I guess uh they they
03:02 explained it a lot in the docs and
03:03 everything I think people maybe did not
03:06 look hard enough I thought it was like a
03:08 market making agreement when they had
03:10 that like I thought that like reserve
03:11 for the lp meant like they were GNA loan
03:14 that out or something yeah well they did
03:17 some so let me explain is like they set
03:20 up this pool that it was single side jup
03:24 that sold it from 40 cents to 70 cents
03:27 and then you know going back down once
03:29 the pool got used DC it would like go
03:31 the other way too right but the
03:33 pre-market price we're talking about it
03:34 was trading like between 60 and 70 cents
03:37 for a while so this was already this was
03:39 already setting it like pretty below
03:42 that so like this pool was getting
03:44 bought up on chain in like the 40s and
03:46 50s and it was trading on centralized
03:48 exchanges in like the 60 Cent range at
03:51 the same time which kind of showed you
03:54 is kind of like weird but listen the the
03:57 it's an interesting launch I'm not a not
03:59 going to give any like legal takes or
04:00 anything they managed to raise what like
04:04 one2 200 mil at like a four to seven
04:07 billion fully diluted like you're not
04:09 going to get that you're not going to
04:11 raise that money in the private markets
04:14 from anyone where like when are they
04:17 going to pull the liquidity they did
04:19 they pulled well they pulled the jup
04:20 side and now they have the usdc side
04:22 acting as like a bid for people to sell
04:24 into want yeah but doesn't that get
04:26 pulled soon it's they're doing like 10
04:27 mil a week or something they said they
04:30 keep changing it up yeah said 10 for a
04:33 few months right they didn't really
04:34 specify the time period either I think
04:36 the issue is most of these whenever you
04:38 do these types of setups right in
04:40 whatever flavor LBP LBA the end result
04:45 is well the source is usually from
04:47 Treasury and the end result is usually
04:49 some form of of kind of permanent
04:52 liquidity um yeah they just pulled it
04:55 they're just gonna pull no no no they
04:58 moved it to a normal pool I think they
05:00 moved a bunch I think the ladder is like
05:02 less the less of the concern I mean I
05:04 think it's just like the source of the
05:05 funds that that was really antagonistic
05:10 yeah like honestly I feel like this is
05:12 what the incentives were for for the
05:13 Jupe team and just to go over it one
05:15 more time if you like it's like a univ
05:16 V3 range basically where they deployed J
05:20 between like 40 to 70 cents so as people
05:23 are buying into the pool they're
05:25 swapping you know usdc into the pool
05:27 they're getting jup out but that usdc
05:29 like stays in the pool at the price they
05:32 bought it so they sold I think like at
05:34 the peak it was like 200 million worth
05:37 of juper but it also it also had a 10%
05:39 fee oh okay well there you go uh but now
05:42 they're they said that they're going to
05:43 keep that usdc in the pool so like
05:45 people who want to like sell back into
05:46 it can and they're going to like
05:48 withdraw it slowly some of that I guess
05:50 is going to the team or some of it is
05:52 going to go into a new pool but um yeah
05:56 definitely from the Jupiter team
05:58 standpoint this is probably
06:00 like maximizing like the amount of money
06:03 raised by taking advantage of kind of
06:06 like the public markets so it's if they
06:09 can do it like who knows what's going to
06:11 happen like on the legal side but from a
06:13 strictly monetary standpoint this seems
06:15 like it was probably worth it like
06:18 you're raising 200 million uh selling
06:20 the token at a four to seven billion
06:22 valuation which is you know quite High
06:25 it definitely sucked up though we were
06:26 talking before like where does the money
06:30 and if you look everything everything
06:32 was down like 10 to 30% yeah on the day
06:35 of the launch because even if you got
06:38 the Jupe air drop you like were probably
06:41 flat unless you got like a massive one
06:44 it like on paper salana ran up heavily
06:47 into it right so there's just going to
06:48 be this is a pretty natural profit
06:51 taking event with it both running up
06:54 into the event and and this being like a
06:56 climactic uh new source of or new draw
06:59 of liquidity for probably for a while
07:02 like 200 million usdc would have been
07:04 like probably 10% at least last time I
07:07 checked of the stable coins on salana
07:08 ended up in this pool which is like you
07:10 know pretty significant because all
07:12 these things are priced at the margin um
07:14 especially the allcoins like they can
07:16 have like 100 million market cap maybe
07:19 multi hundred million or even billion
07:20 fdv but it's really kind of priced at at
07:23 the margin because they're relatively
07:26 like low liquidity to to their fdv so
07:29 like sucking out like the marginal 10%
07:32 of stealable coins you know that first
07:34 day made a pretty big difference yeah
07:35 like everything was down seemed like 10%
07:36 across the board but you did get a nice
07:38 salana run like it got down like salana
07:40 got down to like 80 bucks or 85 or
07:43 something like that and then ran up
07:44 pretty nicely uh into the launch which I
07:47 think helped ran up into the outage too
07:51 the impa and running past the outage too
07:55 like before we get into the into the
07:57 outage it just does it not seem like a
07:59 weird kind of launch type like if you
08:02 wanted to maximize money raised and like
08:05 enable price Discovery rather than
08:07 picking a range it seems like you would
08:08 choose something like an auction like a
08:10 Dutch auction or or something like this
08:13 and then didn't want do any of that gave
08:16 enough tokens out enough tokens that it
08:19 could have just naturally I think money
08:21 raised and price Discovery are twoo
08:22 different are like two opposing um wants
08:26 here to some extent like I think if you
08:29 I mean you know we mentioned this
08:31 earlier the the even the the pre the
08:34 pre-launch pricing even though it's like
08:36 insignificant volume it does create some
08:37 anchoring and then them kind of forcing
08:40 that price I don't know what I don't
08:41 know if a Dutch auction would have
08:42 caused this to go higher than seven
08:44 billion FTV so I I do think like they
08:47 this was like they put the the ceiling
08:49 at where it was and then created a
08:51 pretty comfortable floor almost uh so I
08:54 think this is probably like close to
08:55 maximizing Capital raise for them yeah
08:58 that's true that's true like knew it was
08:59 going to trade like 60 to 70 they don't
09:02 totally care to all sell it at that
09:04 price they know if they started it at
09:06 like 40 cents they would raise up lch
09:09 didn't you say that it was trading at
09:11 like 60 cents on the Sexes and 40 cents
09:14 on chain yeah is that for a while like
09:16 or is that just like a blip no it was
09:18 like I don't know how long it took the I
09:20 mean if you look at the chart on chain
09:22 it's so it looks stupid it's it's like a
09:25 step up for the first hour right as
09:27 people are just kind of creating that
09:29 illusion of the Arbitrage to raise the
09:31 money which they probably like launched
09:33 it with these market makers this is a
09:35 complete speculation but they launch it
09:37 with the market makers on the
09:38 centralized exchange like at 50 60 cents
09:41 or whatever and start their pool at 40
09:42 cents and then it's trading at that on
09:45 on the sex and then you know people are
09:46 just like arbing it by buying it um on
09:51 on on Jupiter itself so a lot of these
09:54 things it's honestly like this Market is
09:55 so inefficient that I think a lot of
09:57 these things are Optics like if you
10:01 create the illusion of you're getting a
10:03 good deal or a good AR like Capital just
10:05 kind of flies in without like really
10:08 thinking about it or even I guess you
10:10 know understanding the docks like this
10:13 this was in the docks I just don't think
10:14 people really understood fully what it
10:16 meant until it launched and then there's
10:17 like a lot of outrage so yeah yeah this
10:20 Mar they were gonna they were this was G
10:22 to be like 20% at the beginning of the
10:25 supply and then they ended up making it
10:27 like two and a half per. so
10:30 I think once they realize what price
10:31 they were going to launch at I feel like
10:33 a lot of the stuff is 80 8020 9010 in
10:35 terms of investing it like at these
10:37 times where you know you just look at
10:38 like one piece of information and that
10:40 drives your whole Val and I think one
10:42 thing people are anchoring to is just
10:44 comparing the Unis swap volume to
10:46 Jupiter volume and then just doing the
10:48 FTV comp and saying all right this is
10:50 reasonable jup aggregator it's not even
10:53 the same thing no no no no but but okay
10:56 I have like no opinion on it pry it's
11:00 pretty rich but you that's not even the
11:02 right FR me to think about both these
11:03 things both Unis Swap and Jupiter are
11:04 the front ends of their ecosystem like
11:07 that's all that matters at the end of
11:08 the day in the long run that is probably
11:11 where most like a lot of value will acur
11:13 to these front ends that get all the
11:14 users so you can't just like Unis swap
11:17 Unis swap in in like three years will
11:20 the amm even be Unis swaps main product
11:23 sure the RFQ stuff which I think makes
11:26 yeah but it's not even that like they're
11:27 going after full full Financial Service
11:30 stack like they want every every part of
11:32 it and they have the brand and that's
11:34 where they're going and Jupiter is going
11:35 to be the same thing like it is Jupiter
11:38 really is the front end of salana I mean
11:40 it is and even you go to something like
11:43 squads you the multisig wallet they have
11:46 the Jupiter swap right there lefin like
11:48 uses Jupiter as we've talked about too
11:54 everything like Trend wise and fee
11:56 capture wise more of that will like
11:58 liquidity the the source of liquidity
12:00 has the ability to capture more fees
12:02 than the front end no I I don't know I
12:05 think the front end rout to that
12:07 liquidity I think people are gonna
12:09 compete on because like like you
12:11 basically like Unis swap right like they
12:13 can put on their 30 bip fees and they
12:16 didn't really lose much market share
12:17 because they own the consumer like
12:18 you're kind of owning the font and
12:20 owning the consumer I think that's where
12:21 you can play with the fees whereas like
12:23 the consumers are like less price
12:25 sensitive versus like the business kind
12:27 of you know switching
12:29 providers are are more like cutthoat
12:32 well it's also because they had a
12:33 majority of the liquidity yeah but like
12:36 I think that V4 is going to be pretty
12:39 pretty sticky and and dominant like univ
12:41 V3 is already super dominant on chain
12:43 and then once you have hooks and like
12:45 those projects raising significant
12:46 amounts of money to build strategies
12:48 that are basically hooks onto onto univ
12:51 V4 you know like Cella and people like
12:53 this I think it's I think it's going to
12:54 be pretty dominant um it's just a
12:56 different thing right I feel like Unis
12:59 the the sort of liquidity side is like a
13:03 a headless Marketplace you know to use
13:05 like the Jesse's Point like it doesn't
13:07 need a front end it people just tap into
13:09 it naturally and then they're going for
13:12 also being the front end with like Unis
13:14 swap X and and all the stuff they're
13:15 doing on the financial services side
13:18 whereas Jupiter just has that that front
13:20 end side right to being the front page
13:22 of salana that's definitely valuable but
13:24 I don't know it's like but Jupiter's
13:27 wanting other tools like launching like
13:29 pers like I think front end's going to
13:32 be the most important thing and where
13:33 the value is going to ACW in defi I
13:36 think I I agree I I've always thought
13:38 that the front ends are valy C but the
13:40 the thing is like you can think of wets
13:42 uh dashboards like all these people
13:43 could go after this this use case right
13:45 just like metam mask launched their swap
13:47 aggregator like if Phantom launched a a
13:51 swap aggregator that would affective
13:53 because that's the front end kind of
13:54 before Jupiter right for whatever reason
13:58 the wallets had been able to do that all
14:00 the front ends are are tapping into like
14:01 the same liquidity though so in the end
14:04 there's obviously other market dynamics
14:06 to play but I think you know just
14:07 thinking about in a vacuum if if front
14:09 end is charging too much in fees someone
14:11 else can come in and tap into that
14:13 liquidity and and so I do think the the
14:17 liquidity owner is the one who has more
14:19 control of fees yeah I mean the thing I
14:21 mean one data point is unis swap added
14:24 their front end fee I don't think
14:26 they've seen any drop off that's what I
14:27 yeah that's what I said do you know what
14:29 month I have a good dashboard for this
14:31 maybe I don't know but wasn't it
14:32 something around 15 bips it was a yeah
14:35 it was 30 bips I think but what um do
14:38 you know what month that happening so
14:39 I'm looking at the front end dashboard
14:42 and like Unis Swap and Unis swap X just
14:44 keep going up like I don't see any drop
14:47 off it was 15 bips I think the fee you
14:50 know when that happened do you know what
14:52 month that was in I think it was October
14:54 and it was only for select pairs as far
14:56 as I know um 2023 we talked about it on
15:00 one of these episodes okay so October
15:02 2023 Unis swap front end this is from a
15:05 flash blots dashboard that we can share
15:06 in the show notes but Unis swap front
15:09 34.4% and Unis swap X had
15:12 2.6% so you're looking at 37% in total
15:16 right now Unis swap front end has 41%
15:19 and Unis swap X front end has 6.6% so
15:22 it's like even since they added that fee
15:25 in October that's of what sorry of the
15:27 of the trade going through Unis swap
15:29 yes this is uh by flash Bots it's
15:32 basically like the volume through front
15:33 ends and you have like Unis swap 1 inch
15:37 matcha def Lama you know curve the
15:42 Bots uh yeah so it just like it's
15:44 basically probably most organic order
15:46 flow and like even with adding the 15
15:49 bips fee they have like you know grown
15:52 grown continue to grow their market
15:53 share like yeah I think the front ends
15:55 are definitely because also crypto is
15:57 something where it's like super about
15:59 like trust right now where like people
16:02 don't want to switch like they hear of
16:04 like you know rugs and hacks and stuff
16:05 like if they know something works oh
16:07 yeah 100% if they know something works
16:09 and like okay they're going to charge me
16:11 an extra 20 bips when I'm trying to buy
16:12 something that might go up five times or
16:15 go down 50% the next day like I'm gonna
16:18 eat the extra 20 basis point to have
16:21 something I'm comfortable with and like
16:23 not have to switch to you know pay five
16:25 basis points now on something I'm not I
16:26 don't know and like you know get
16:29 comfortable with the whole new interface
16:30 versus like you know they're very
16:32 accustomed to using what what they know
16:34 I think where the front ends are going
16:35 to compete is like on features right
16:38 there's still pretty limited
16:40 features on like Unis swap yeah I think
16:44 I think front ends capture a lot of
16:45 value it is also like somewhat um
16:48 fragile though right open C was the nft
16:52 front end you never would have thought
16:54 like what in instead of 2021 20 you know
16:58 2020 you never would have thought there
17:00 would be uh someone like blur coming in
17:02 and just and just taking over and they
17:03 really did that by targeting like the
17:05 supply side right the the kind of
17:08 liquidity side and I think we've seen a
17:10 few of these shifts like o over time um
17:14 token it's like no innovation combinate
17:17 combined with no token is
17:19 is because blur just like the the real
17:22 thing that they had was the token right
17:23 like obviously I'm not like it is a
17:26 better it is a better ux for like
17:31 majority to to almost no market share
17:33 right there's obviously most situations
17:34 are going to be much less drastic but I
17:37 think those are the two really that that
17:39 that cause it yeah no definitely blur is
17:43 a good point but I do think probably I
17:45 don't know but you know Blair is a great
17:47 product but I think a lot was probably
17:49 to do with the token and bringing over
17:51 like tensor completely dominated out of
17:54 too yeah yeah like magic Eden had had
17:57 complete Domin on salana as well right
17:59 like that was the and they got crushed
18:02 by tensor when I was using tensor a year
18:05 ago you had to list at like 10% below
18:08 magic Eden for anyone to notice that it
18:10 was being listed there That's how little
18:13 market share they had okay and now it's
18:16 it's something crazy right because it's
18:18 also it just is the they have they just
18:22 have like the perfect ux the perfect
18:25 interface for anything yeah I think
18:26 Jupiter just built like a great product
18:28 right they have like the DCA feature
18:30 like it works really well like it's just
18:31 not easy to build a product that good
18:33 that's why they kind of dominate right
18:35 now um got we got sidetracked
18:39 part yeah because there was always like
18:41 early on when there wasn't much defi on
18:43 Salon everyone was you know talking
18:45 about how good it still how well it
18:47 still worked but it was more so just
18:48 Salon working fast rather than like the
18:51 product itself being that different than
18:54 eth comtable and a point on uh open C I
18:59 think also there's an opportunity for
19:00 blur not just with the token but like
19:02 open C probably like 95% of open C's
19:05 users just got completely wiped on nfts
19:08 when everything crashed right like a lot
19:10 of these nfts just went to zero so it's
19:11 like you happen with blur right like
19:14 people were actually blaming blur for
19:16 the nft uh bare market right because
19:18 they make it made it like more efficient
19:20 to sell and stuff like this like I think
19:21 people got wrecked across the board it
19:23 is like a much better product I think
19:26 everyone blam everyone blamed blur for
19:28 or I mean the takes made no sense
19:30 because you just had a false sense of
19:32 reality with high floor prices and no
19:34 liquidity and then when you add
19:36 liquidity to the market it's like okay
19:38 the true price is not 150k for a board
19:42 ape like it's probably a bit cheaper
19:44 than that yeah yeah and I also um
19:48 quickly on the front end point we maybe
19:50 we can save this to later for like the
19:51 allcoin stuff but like I think the
19:52 telegram Bots are actually pretty
19:54 interesting on on the front end because
19:56 like they're giving like a lot of
19:58 tooling to to users and we've seen them
20:01 gain a lot of market share while
20:03 charging like pretty high fees so like
20:06 banana bot I think is pretty cool like
20:08 for sniping and limit orders and and
20:10 Market orders and they're building out
20:11 like a web app which like is going to
20:14 kind of act like a trading terminal for
20:16 like on chain so I think like that area
20:18 of the market you know if we think front
20:19 ends are going to Cru lot of value could
20:21 could be an interesting one to look at
20:24 I've gone back and forth on telegram
20:26 Bots what what's the uh well ini like
20:29 the main and Main use case Still Remains
20:31 the sniping side right and because most
20:35 people aren't trading from their when
20:38 you're on your desktop you're not
20:40 sending messages to a telegram bot to
20:41 buy and sell assets typically so like
20:44 it's there's like a
20:46 weird gap of of kind of user demographic
20:50 where you know if you're at your you're
20:53 kind of targeting mobile users that want
20:56 defi yeah but I think there they
20:58 building up these web apps which I think
20:59 are going to be pretty cool and like
21:01 better than like unitop or 1 in or
21:03 matcha in their current form like in
21:05 terms of functionality how do these
21:07 actually okay here I don't I don't use
21:09 these because they're not really secure
21:11 enough for my own like anxiety or
21:15 whatever but how do I've never
21:17 understood how if a lot of people are
21:19 using these there's actually any Alpha
21:21 in like the sniping it's a a gas War the
21:24 sniping yeah like it it worked well at
21:26 first but now it's basically blind
21:29 submissions for gas to try and get ahead
21:32 of someone else and it can be expensive
21:34 if you're wrong but like banana bot is
21:37 really dominant in the sniping they're
21:39 winning like 90 something like 85 or 90%
21:42 of the first like topa block bundles
21:44 because they have like the best tooling
21:46 for it so like everyone on banana is
21:49 like putting in their kind of minor tip
21:51 to to kind of get priority and then it
21:53 bundles everything together and they've
21:55 been winning like 90% or something like
21:57 crazy like that of the first bundles how
22:01 big of a market like sniping just isn't
22:02 like that massive of a market by Design
22:06 Banana's been doing like you know 10 to
22:08 20 million in volume over the past like
22:11 few weeks but they're charging like 50
22:13 bips on regular swaps and then a 1% on
22:15 sniping so it's like it's not nothing
22:18 for sure yeah I I I agree it's not
22:20 nothing I just I'm more so you know
22:22 thinking about how much bigger it can
22:24 get without yeah well I think that's
22:27 that's where the web apps come in like
22:30 right now I agree like the telegram use
22:32 case is like very Niche um like for the
22:35 sniping and also like you know maybe
22:36 some people who who want to be trading
22:38 on their phone or or kind of like have
22:40 access all the time but I think the web
22:43 apps are really cool where you would
22:45 have like basically like a sex like
22:48 interface but like on on the deck so
22:50 it's like shows all your coins there and
22:51 your wallet like you can do limit orders
22:53 you can do DCA you can do Market orders
22:55 you also have the sniping functionality
22:57 you know they can integrate like the
22:59 coin gecko type information in there so
23:01 like it's also your it just becomes like
23:03 the onchain trading terminal
23:06 which front end things you know that
23:10 with full it's gone full circle on that
23:12 front yeah so I think that how they
23:15 actually compete with them is like more
23:16 features right because like you're only
23:17 going to move front ends like I don't
23:18 think people are going to be sensitive
23:20 enough to move front ends for like a few
23:22 basis points but I think they will move
23:24 for like a whole new product Suite but
23:26 obviously that's going to cause a war
23:28 within itself yeah I mean I think
23:30 there's like two interesting things
23:32 about it other than the the sniping the
23:34 first one is just this idea of being
23:36 closer to where the alpha is that you
23:40 make like investment decisions based on
23:43 right like you're if you're in a group
23:45 and you hear about a coin you can kind
23:46 of like on on telegram which is probably
23:48 where a lot of the a lot of the Alpha's
23:49 happening or Discord you can kind of
23:51 move to buy it like straight away with
23:53 very little friction you don't have to
23:54 open an app if you're on your phone
23:56 especially it's way less annoying and
23:58 that's part of it but I think when you
24:00 start developing web apps and stuff like
24:02 Yan said you end up going full circle
24:03 right and that that Advantage isn't
24:04 really there anymore and the second
24:06 thing I think that's interesting is like
24:08 the chat ux like I do think there's
24:12 something nice about that and especially
24:14 as as crypto gets more complex and like
24:16 bridging and stuff like this I do think
24:18 someone will nail like a a chat sort of
24:21 like interaction ux where it's like you
24:22 know Bridge my coins to to Neutron and
24:26 like buy this coin whatever rather than
24:28 you having to actually like go interact
24:29 with a bunch of different front ends to
24:31 do this it just like sources the route
24:32 for you and then you like approve a
24:34 transaction to do it and yeah I'm
24:36 excited to see like more people kind of
24:38 like experiment with that they
24:41 AI functionality is is pretty zero to
24:43 one right but it doesn't like no one's
24:45 really anywhere close to that yet well
24:47 there's a lot of people working on it
24:49 with like this all this AI stuff because
24:50 like you can be human readable like hey
24:52 do this and then if they have their
24:54 their custom GPT then they can uh try
24:59 and like it's still early stages but
25:00 yeah that'll definitely exist yeah and
25:03 that sort of like goes against the the
25:05 front ends being dominant point right
25:08 because in a world with AI where a lot
25:11 of and I think like in a world with AI a
25:13 lot more stuff moves to to a chat like
25:16 UI like obviously you'll still need like
25:18 front ends are still very useful for a
25:19 lot of types of interactions but if if
25:22 we do move to like a a more chat based
25:24 world then like you'd imagine wherever
25:27 users are just have that UI available
25:29 rather than there being a specific front
25:30 end that you go to to do everything yeah
25:33 anyway to okay yeah we'll move on but I
25:36 think that'll definitely be dominant for
25:38 like the Casual user but like people who
25:40 like want like the trading terminal like
25:42 feel and like lots of information at
25:44 once like you can't really do that
25:46 through a chat bot but for casual users
25:48 for sure yeah we can move on I just
25:49 thought the front end point was really
25:50 interesting and there's like a lot of
25:52 kind of projects you know competing in
25:55 in the space so that's we're talking
25:58 about for sure I mean I think this is
26:00 where like wallets and dashboards are
26:02 pretty undervalued uh and that they they
26:04 have like a lot of users and they are
26:06 the the like frest of the front ends
26:09 right like like the first interaction of
26:10 most people with with crypto they just
26:12 haven't like been able to really build
26:14 out like a compelling product Suite
26:16 around that yet but I think it'll happen
26:18 but anyway no no I just one one one
26:22 last to a front end it's like the wallet
26:25 is no longer relevant right like that
26:27 you you know I mean the the moat it's
26:29 generated I think isn't really anywhere
26:32 near strong because and and it's part of
26:34 their design is they want to be as
26:36 easily integratable as possible so I
26:38 think it's it's a tricky spot at the
26:39 same time yeah I think
26:42 there's there's like good odds that
26:44 front ends and solvers is basically what
26:47 captures most value
26:50 eventually just market makers H for the
26:52 most part yeah which is yeah maybe not
26:56 great so yeah like bri end then instead
26:59 of having our liquidity pools we're just
27:01 going to get whatever Market maker to
27:03 quote you but you can also have an app
27:05 that has I don't see how that's like
27:07 it's it's the status quo is that but
27:10 worse right like market makers the big
27:12 market makers have like special
27:13 relationships with the centralized
27:14 exchanges they have like zero fee
27:16 accounts and stuff so they can trade
27:17 their stuff back and forth with like the
27:19 the solver meta is at least like a Level
27:25 right the solver two can be
27:28 like an app can have its own app
27:30 specific like solving algorithm that it
27:32 owns in like a proprietary way so
27:35 doesn't have to be necessarily like
27:38 Market maker but let's move on to uh are
27:41 we talking about the salon outage yeah
27:43 let's do it do you want to give some
27:44 some context on on what happened the
27:46 client yeah so and maybe like compared
27:49 to the last ones right which were which
27:51 were yeah well the last one the last one
27:53 I think was kind of a bug to so his
27:57 historically most of the salon outages
27:59 had to do with like nft mints and
28:01 spamming the chain and there were so
28:03 many inbound spam transactions at once
28:05 that kind of overloaded validators uh
28:07 the last couple ones have been client
28:09 bugs and so this latest one was a bug
28:13 introduced in a new upgrade uh a couple
28:16 weeks ago and apparently it was actually
28:19 found on testet uh but the main net fix
28:23 had not been deployed yet and so
28:26 speculation is someone just decided to
28:29 manually uh halt the chain because they
28:32 knew about this bug that was on testet
28:35 but but yeah so that was around like 5
28:39 Eastern or something and then two hours
28:42 after that they decide to do a full
28:44 restart and then three hours after that
28:46 it was back up so it's like five hours
28:48 from down to up three hours from when
28:52 they decided restart to up so I mean uh
28:55 what's that Meme where it's like we're
28:56 getting exceeded ly efficient at this
29:00 like they're getting pretty good at the
29:01 at the at the chain restarts um like the
29:04 validator coordination but so so it's in
29:08 so let's think okay let's see how the
29:10 mark the market like didn't really care
29:13 okay went did at the worst like if this
29:15 was a malicious like try and halt the
29:17 chain and short it it's like picking 5
29:19 a.m. EST is like probably the worst time
29:22 you could have done if they were like
29:24 actually trying to do something
29:26 malicious and so so here's what I'll say
29:30 outages I think the fact
29:35 um like salana did not lose any users
29:38 after this tells you a lot about retail
29:42 liking to use the chain and you know
29:45 salana has something that no other
29:47 ecosystem has right now people like to
29:49 use it at the same time uh you know
29:52 you're never going to have you can't
29:55 have a super vibrant defi ecosystem
29:59 handling like billions of dollars if you
30:02 have liveness failures right they're
30:05 kind of like a I I you know I I
30:08 understand the decision to prioritize
30:10 like safety over liveness but for defi
30:13 liveness is kind of safety at the same
30:15 time um it's not like purely a computer
30:18 science problem you're dealing with
30:19 anymore it because you have all the
30:21 these other repercussions and let's face
30:23 it all the outages for the most part
30:27 have come in kind of like low volatile
30:29 periods this last one was the most dead
30:31 you could possibly think of the
30:32 Americans woke up and it was back on
30:35 okay so there's there's listen you one
30:40 days it's probably going to lead to a
30:43 pretty bad defi day because it's going
30:45 to go down and then you know Putin's
30:48 gonna launch some nuke or something at
30:50 the same time and like there's other
30:53 factors that come into play of the
30:55 timing of it that yeah it's not a good
30:58 like situation right and so I mean
31:02 there's a little bit of like level
31:04 setting right because before there
31:05 wasn't really any D5 so that like the
31:07 the notional the VAR right was pretty
31:10 low whereas as this as D5 picks up you
31:13 don't really need much of a move for
31:14 there to be a lot of value lost yeah and
31:17 so yeah it is worth like contextualizing
31:20 though a little bit where like every
31:23 Every Chain has liveness issues other
31:26 than like Ethel one right like Cosmos
31:29 chains have uh liveness issues like
31:33 definitely there's been there's been a
31:34 couple of of outages since the last
31:36 salana one um across like a lot of the
31:38 major Cosmos chains l2s have outages
31:41 right arbitrum went down in in in
31:43 December because they got the sequencer
31:44 got got overloaded like every chain
31:47 other than Ethel one has had has had
31:50 outages it's just that salana has the
31:52 most users and the most eyes on it and
31:54 obviously like uh has a history of this
31:56 stuff so so it gets targeted the most
31:58 but I do think it's worth putting that
32:02 like yeah this something I was saying a
32:04 year ago like people need are going to
32:06 have to start getting more comfortable
32:07 with livess failures because they are
32:10 going to happen more and more and you
32:12 know since l2s are so centralized it
32:15 actually makes them having liveness
32:17 failures not as bad because it's a lot
32:19 easier for them to get restarted up
32:21 quickly you don't have to coordinate
32:23 like in Salon you don't have to
32:24 coordinate with all these validators and
32:25 get 80% stake agre on something when you
32:27 have the L2 with one sequencer soon as
32:30 you fix the bug it's like okay let's get
32:32 back at it right but this is something
32:35 with with with salana that they have the
32:38 single client right just like tenderman
32:40 chains have a single client these bugs
32:43 are going to happen like they have to be
32:46 your um like Risk framework or whatever
32:50 and so I know salana has a lot of
32:52 clients obviously they've got fired
32:54 dancer they've also got this other one
32:56 called zig or Zug there's another client
32:59 coming and so the theory is that I mean
33:02 in a perfect world you would have four
33:04 clients and everyone running
33:06 25% and so if one of them has a bug like
33:09 this the network can still continue
33:11 that's like the ideal World in reality
33:13 we know that's not going to happen like
33:15 even on ethereum today 80 over 80% run
33:18 gu as the execution client so if there's
33:20 like a bad gu bug like that's pretty bad
33:22 and so what like the theory on salana is
33:26 is okay everybody's going to run fire
33:28 dancer because it's more performant but
33:31 we'll also run like another client in
33:33 the background that kind of lags behind
33:36 and so if there's like some big bug and
33:38 Fir dancer everyone can kind of like
33:41 pick up with the behind client and so
33:44 I'm uh this is like a a theory okay uh I
33:48 don't know what that handoff would be
33:51 especially if one client is a lot less
33:53 performant as well like do fees just
33:55 Spike on the Chain like pretty quickly
33:57 because now you have a lot less
33:58 throughput are you actually able to do
34:00 that handoff cleanly without you know
34:04 something happening I don't know but
34:06 that's kind of the um like thinking
34:11 right now on how to
34:17 issues in the future yeah I mean the
34:20 market didn't really care right like I
34:24 had a PLL I had a poll during the outage
34:26 okay this is during the outage and I
34:28 said soul eth is 0.04 right now will be
34:32 higher or lower in 3 months and higher
34:34 was the majority vote can you imagine if
34:36 this happened in July and soul e was
34:38 0.01 okay so like 75% lower and I did
34:42 that same poll on 0 on 0.01 majority
34:45 would say lower 100% right and so the
34:48 timing of the outage is good that it
34:51 happened after like salana kind of came
34:55 back from the dead right
34:57 like path dependency matters so much
34:59 that if this happened before like the
35:01 FTX estate all that stuff right when
35:04 everyone was scared about that and so
35:07 yeah yeah think a lot of people waiting
35:08 for a dip and and if this didn't if this
35:11 didn't cause it then it's you kind of
35:13 need a broader Market
35:15 pullback in order to get it yeah cers is
35:19 always awake 5 amm EST he hears Salon is
35:22 down he instantly wakes up and it
35:24 totally slipped through the whole thing
35:26 he didn't even he woke up and it was
35:29 back there you go it's decentralized
35:31 yeah so not much not too much more to
35:34 say about that do we want to go into eth
35:36 narratives and especially like the Igan
35:38 Lair and reaking points meta yeah I
35:41 don't know if we've talked about points
35:43 but like what are the things people are
35:45 looking at right now I think the two
35:48 main ones are Ian lorth reaking and then
35:53 official uh launch date for for
35:57 4844 which is the new uh fee Market
36:01 where rollups can post blobs instead of
36:03 call data and so this is like a separate
36:05 fee market for rollups it's supposed to
36:07 be a lot cheaper for them to you know
36:10 post their data it's there's like a lot
36:13 of hand wavy people will say like 10 to
36:15 100x cheaper um there's no real there's
36:19 too many variables that play to know
36:21 like how much cheaper this is actually
36:22 going to end up being for rollups and uh
36:25 also like if a lot just start deploying
36:27 here it'll get saturated pretty quick
36:29 which is like Not a Bad Thing obviously
36:31 you're facilitating more demand but it
36:33 doesn't necessarily mean that fees are
36:34 going to be a lot cheaper but this is
36:36 important because we've seen a lot of
36:38 rollups start to move from ethereum da
36:42 to things like Celestia Ian da is coming
36:45 soon Avail is coming soon you know
36:47 arbitrum haser any trust data
36:49 availability committees and so it is
36:51 important timing in this whole Narrative
36:54 of like da and the optimal kind of like
36:57 rollup construction so I imagine you'll
37:00 see a lot of people talking the next
37:01 month about eth eth beta just with like
37:04 restak is a big narrative the E 444 is a
37:07 big narrative blast unlock when whenever
37:10 that happens it's like a big end of
37:12 February right now so it's kind of the
37:15 precursor right you have and all those
37:17 people that put in Blast are decently e
37:19 Maxi so like it's not a scenario where
37:22 they leave the ecosystem it's probably
37:24 they just continue re taking into like
37:28 these kind ofies or dial into eth beta
37:32 with all the kind of additional Catalyst
37:35 behind it yeah I think it's gonna be a
37:37 good month for some like onchain stuff
37:41 like I feel like a lot of like the
37:42 onchain like kind of like smaller midcap
37:45 stuff has kind of moved over to salana
37:47 recently eth's like died down a lot I
37:50 think like the like uh ien ler and blast
37:53 are definitely taking like liquidity out
37:56 of out of the market for eth so like you
37:58 know blast getting unlocked coming back
38:01 also I'm doing like an airdrop like
38:02 hopefully it just kind of gets the the
38:04 velocity of money up more on evm a bit
38:08 which I think we we should see some
38:09 action which is nice and then you kind
38:12 of yeah on I was say so like you know we
38:15 talked about how the FTB stuff is is a
38:17 bit of a money suck uh I think
38:21 this has the potential to do that later
38:24 on but in the beginning it'll be more of
38:28 like a vacuum but in a in a bullish way
38:31 right it'll I think attract a lot of
38:33 existing kind of Ethan and other
38:35 liquidity and then you you're going to
38:36 create you know like blast is going to
38:38 try and basically recreate all of their
38:40 own uh ecosystem projects and and so you
38:44 have a fresh set of incentives for all
38:45 of that and it's all going to be looped
38:47 and gamified so I think you're going to
38:49 have you know a very reflexive kind of
38:53 period but you know it always yeah the
38:56 more reflexive it is the the heart of
38:59 so it can prove to be like pretty bad in
39:03 the end but I think as much as much as I
39:06 think blast is like a total Abomination
39:08 it is going to have I can just imagine
39:11 the craziest stuff on that chain and so
39:15 I totally expect a lot of people do not
39:16 even care about any security Properties
39:19 or anything now and stuff's launching
39:22 they're like not super audited yeah yeah
39:25 so that I be good for for evbm in the
39:28 short term and if like the broader
39:31 Market holds up throughout these next
39:32 couple months and like tech stocks are
39:34 ripping and bitcoin's bouncing really
39:37 nicely so like if that holds up I think
39:40 you could get some some good activity
39:42 but yeah I think like right or the past
39:44 few months the activity has mostly been
39:45 on like kind of these salana like
39:47 unchain stuff and then you know on their
39:50 on your Celestia or say or Su where it's
39:53 like you know you have like
39:57 potential for like multi x's on kind of
39:59 these like massive chains rather than
40:02 you know in the kind of ethereum like
40:05 small to to mcap like more on chain
40:07 Centric stuff so I think they'll
40:09 probably be like kind of a rotation back
40:11 to to like Celestia is just staking
40:15 right that's a cosmos chain that's what
40:16 Cosmos chains are always that's always
40:18 the narrative yeah I think like when you
40:20 have like the salana like Casino running
40:23 and then kind of these like large caps
40:25 like you know like two three four five
40:28 axes that you can trade on Leverage then
40:30 it makes the like eth kind of like that
40:34 that area of like you know like 100 Mil
40:37 to like or like a billion like sub a
40:38 billion cap on e that's like defi or and
40:42 a different onchain plays like less
40:43 attractive especially as like liquidity
40:46 is leaving to you know salana or getting
40:49 locked in Blast or aan later so if that
40:51 kind of starts coming back I think there
40:54 there could be a decent rotation there
40:58 all else equal like the market equal and
41:00 stuff but yeah yeah do we think Ian Lair
41:02 is going to be like yeah what do you
41:04 think the a ler launch is going to be
41:06 like like how and how how's everyone
41:08 playing I guess their eth right now like
41:12 I guess you bullish I layer points and
41:15 or or you locking in like fixed yields
41:18 right now like what yeah what do
41:20 everyone think on that
41:22 side I don't really know like what do
41:24 they what do they la like a da what's
41:26 coming first right um I mean the the
41:29 liquid reaking stuff it kind of reminds
41:31 me of when people were making all these
41:33 index tokens of lsts a year ago and it's
41:36 just new tokens on top of other tokens
41:39 to get to like print more incentives and
41:42 so I do think that like liquid reaking
41:44 tokens will be pretty popular um they're
41:48 also quite dangerous overall but I do
41:51 think they'll be pretty popular but at
41:53 this point it's like nobody everyone is
41:56 just getting points because it's like
41:59 what else is there to do with eat
42:00 there's nothing to do with eth these
42:01 days besides reaking right and so
42:04 because there's no there's no me there's
42:06 no trading activity or anything right
42:08 it's all moved so what are you g to do
42:09 you're going to restake it right and
42:12 everyone is kind of just going into the
42:14 liquid reaking protocols to get you
42:16 know new tokens from those protocols and
42:20 everything I don't know I don't have
42:22 like strong takes on it I
42:27 yeah like I think that there's
42:28 definitely an a window of opportunity
42:31 where like this stuff goes crazy but
42:33 like aana saying it's like very
42:34 reflexive so like it goes crazy to the
42:36 upside and then you know it crashes to
42:38 to the downside it's just like and and
42:41 price is ripped a lot it's like ah it's
42:44 not really gonna you kind of want to be
42:46 the one of the earlier ones running for
42:47 the door to some extent yeah and then
42:49 you have this and I know I've like
42:50 brought this point a bunch of times but
42:52 I think it's an important one to just be
42:54 aware of like obviously you know this
42:57 isn't happening right now but as more
43:00 and more of these INF forls come out
43:02 with like massive ftvs and like small
43:05 circulating caps there's going to be a
43:07 time where like the tide shifts on this
43:08 stuff like di mention just launched
43:10 again like1 billion dollar cir 7 billion
43:12 doll FTV you know Jupiter uh launched
43:16 you know 700k or 700 million Circ you
43:20 know five billion fdv Wormhole dis
43:23 announced their token they're trading at
43:24 like a five or six billion FTV on the
43:26 pre-market like that's just in the past
43:28 two weeks like you have Blast coming out
43:31 you have aan lay like just is some that
43:34 that we've been talking about and
43:36 already like you know Celestia which is
43:38 like tens of billions of of tokens to be
43:40 unlocked same with optimism arbitrum
43:43 like so like say Sue like so many of
43:46 these mocks like it's literally like 50
43:49 maybe hundred billion dollars of unlocks
43:52 coming you know over the next few years
43:55 and that that is like going to be a
43:58 massive liquidity suck on the ecosystem
44:00 at some point as like everyone's up so
44:03 much on their Investments and like you
44:04 know VCS and teams are selling so it's
44:07 just something to be aware of in the
44:08 background it's not happening like
44:09 tomorrow but that eventually like
44:12 there's going to be a time where a lot
44:14 of this stuff is probably going to be
44:16 down 80 90% I think the setup is also
44:19 you know you have a lot of bullish
44:21 catalysts in the next few months right
44:24 with with um uh blast igen
44:29 4844 the having I think and ETF flows
44:33 have have kind of reversed um to to
44:36 being you know somewhat decently
44:38 positive so you're gonna have this
44:39 massive runup and it's it's I think the
44:43 and this isn't you know completely
44:44 finalized but I think like One initial
44:46 soft deadline is going to be the first
44:48 unlock of the the first massive uh like
44:52 10 figure fdv well yeah here arbitrum is
44:56 yeah arbitrum yeah arbitrum is a big one
44:59 but like like it doesn't really there's
45:00 not too many on on the E side I think
45:02 it's it's more of the the new ones that
45:04 are coming out that have swe has a
45:06 pretty big one in in May it's like a
45:08 couple couple billion unlock yeah it's
45:10 just like who is going to like when they
45:13 create when they launch this thing that
45:15 they had A1 billion dollar circulating
45:17 and like A1 billion doll fdv it's like
45:20 you know they're launching with the
45:21 market maker to like you know they maybe
45:24 hype up the pre-market like seen with
45:26 like Jupe and dimension not saying like
45:28 the teams have done that but like people
45:30 are kind of like hyping up the price an
45:33 people anchor their perceptions it
45:34 launches at around that price with not
45:37 that much float and there's like enough
45:39 hype and like anchoring that like people
45:41 will come in and buy it and kind of
45:42 support you know the one billion dollar
45:45 fdv or sorry the one billion dollar
45:47 circulating cap and like it's not even
45:48 that much volume A lot of times like on
45:51 on that circulating cap and then like
45:54 the amount of liquidity it takes to
45:55 support that that versus when like the
45:57 real unlocks of like oneway flow of
45:59 selling start coming out from like you
46:01 know team or or VCS is just like
46:04 literally hundreds of millions not
46:06 billions of dollars of like it depends
46:09 right offsetting flows yeah it depends
46:11 how the token set up but like is not not
46:14 too bad because they they raised at the
46:16 peak of the of the bull and I'm I'm
46:18 pretty sure they raised at like uh a b
46:21 or multi-b valuation and there's a few
46:23 others like that there's there's other
46:26 back and they had a killer trade with
46:28 the FTX estate yeah exactly Al
46:32 allocation yeah these are all like these
46:34 are a lot of these are very different
46:35 from each other I think there's like a
46:36 few factors that kind of weigh into it
46:39 if you wanted to do a better analysis it
46:40 would be like how many pre I mean
46:42 obviously the team like the the the team
46:44 allocation is important investor
46:45 allocation but then how many rounds have
46:47 been done previously and what's sort of
46:49 like the unrealized gain that these
46:51 people are are sitting on in in in like
46:53 dollar terms and then also just like
46:55 secondary volume right because I mean
46:58 salana was was a famous one right with
47:01 uh spfs sell me all you can then then go
47:03 [Â __Â ] off thing where the unlock everyone
47:06 thought it was gonna be bearish huh it
47:08 doesn't really happen as much anymore I
47:11 mean people are selling but like with
47:13 salana they were doing a lot of rest
47:14 staggering of unlocks which helped right
47:17 and that that I think was one of the big
47:19 things the market didn't price in uh
47:21 which you're not really seeing
47:23 adjustments to unlocks anymore but you
47:25 are you're seeing some of these things
47:27 trade meaningful meaningfully on
47:28 secondaries right where the the cost
47:31 basis resets and that that matters a lot
47:33 but it's hard to get good data on this
47:35 um it's just when you look at some of
47:37 the seed rounds right like you can kind
47:38 of get a feel for how heavy how heavy
47:40 this stuff is those there's definitely
47:43 supporting the like sometimes I I think
47:47 you know when the whole Market is
47:48 running I think it gets also really
47:51 difficult as a holder to justify so like
47:53 Jupe for example right I mean when if
47:56 the whole Market is is gradually
47:58 trending higher how much you know upside
48:00 do you really think there is in in in
48:03 not to pick on jupa just because we're
48:04 talking about it now and and it has you
48:06 know pretty high FTV it's
48:08 it's it's like sometimes it's hard to
48:11 see I think that's why memec coins do
48:13 well right because you have these like
48:15 insane ceilings whereas you know like am
48:17 I really going to hold something at a
48:19 pretty rich valve for not that much
48:21 upside and and so I yeah that's going to
48:24 be that's like the other tricky element
48:25 for me is is you know who's really
48:27 comfortable holding these when
48:28 everything else is doing a lot better
48:31 yeah it's just like I feel like we're
48:33 accelerating into the point where it's
48:35 like okay you know there was some of
48:38 these in 2021 but like we're accelerate
48:42 and even like going back to
48:44 2017 like EOS and stuff where they
48:46 raised like insane amount of money and
48:48 like these absurd valuations but like
48:50 now you're getting to the point where
48:51 it's accelerating and it's like we've
48:53 had two launches and or three launches
48:55 basically in the past two weeks of like
48:58 Jupe six billion Dimension 7 billion
49:00 Wormhole hasn't launched yet but the
49:02 premarket string at six billion it's
49:03 like that's like three in the last two
49:05 weeks it's like it's starting to
49:06 accelerate because people have like
49:08 caught on like the highest EV thing in
49:10 the world right now is to get a group of
49:12 developers get some good marketing
49:14 people raise from some good VCS and
49:16 launch a multi-billion but none of
49:18 that's happening now though like all all
49:19 the stuff people who are launching now
49:21 are people who built through a brutal
49:23 Market this has been true for like
49:26 seven years so it's like it's starting
49:28 to accelerate well I mean if you're in
49:30 crypto pivot AI like the this was like a
49:33 a brutal bare Market where most people
49:35 like a lot of people threw in the towel
49:37 like no one was raising money then like
49:40 uh a lot of yeah like I don't know you
49:43 the people that are capitalizing on this
49:44 now definitely yeah may they started in
49:46 2021 like when they first start start
49:48 get crazy like the threeyear cycle
49:50 threeyear lag two to three year lag I
49:52 mean if you timed it perfectly you could
49:54 kind come in do a project raise and then
49:56 yeah but you still have to have to like
49:58 live through uh you know Luna FTX like
50:02 the the for sure but I'm just saying
50:05 like it's like over the past like few
50:08 years this trade I feel like has been in
50:12 like rewarded insanely absolutely like
50:15 you're literally minting like 100
50:17 millionaires on on paper pars like from
50:20 from this like in in team tokens from
50:22 like a project that takes like you know
50:25 a few years to to do I do think that
50:31 why like eth could be a late cycle asset
50:35 uh because as all the unlocks come
50:37 through people start to sell a lot of
50:39 those into like eth if they want to just
50:40 maintain like Market exposure yeah it's
50:43 it's kind of tough right because it's
50:45 like where is this money coming from and
50:48 then where does it go like I think a lot
50:50 of it's coming from the ecosystem and a
50:51 lot of it's going to VCS and like
50:53 bounders who like I don't think they're
50:55 going to like re necessarily redeploy
51:01 think you know it's not really real
51:03 gains yet for a lot of this stuff for
51:06 sure no of course not because like
51:08 there's no way that the market could
51:10 handle if everyone to started selling
51:12 these right now there's just not enough
51:13 liquidity in the market to handle this
51:14 but like that's why I'm saying like at
51:16 some point it's going to turn and it's
51:19 like these things are going to be down
51:21 like 50 the 70 80% the one thing I'll
51:25 with this is that airdrops at least give
51:27 retail the first chance at locking in
51:31 gains right so if you if like you you
51:34 don't like kind of the mechanics of how
51:36 this works and everything and you think
51:38 they're going to be down only with all
51:39 the unlocks the first people that can
51:41 sell are people who got free tokens
51:44 right yeah but it's also like a lot of
51:46 simpers too simpers who have like insane
51:49 infastructure Farm like um the guy on
51:51 Twitter I think Evan has had some good
51:53 tweets about this like he's been
51:54 tweeting about like Celestia and J the
51:56 past like 48 hours just like saying like
52:00 Okay if this was like the top wallet
52:02 this is how many tokens they got and
52:03 then if they spread it across like a
52:05 hundred wallets or a thousand wallets
52:07 they would have got like 50,000 times
52:10 more you're optimizing with full
52:12 information right like when you're doing
52:14 it ahead of time you have no idea what
52:15 the thresholds are and yeah well yeah
52:19 like who knows how much of this leaked
52:22 just maybe throw something in like did
52:25 you guys read that Travis cling post
52:27 about like none of this like the the the
52:30 sort of more how the cycle is a bit more
52:32 Brazen in that there's more of an
52:35 admission that like some of this stuff
52:37 doesn't do anything and is and is never
52:39 going to do anything it was obviously a
52:40 pretty negative post and I guess he's
52:42 been kind of jaded for for for a little
52:45 while but I resonate with with uh with
52:48 the sentiment of it at least from from
52:49 my experience in previous Cycles it
52:52 seems like now um there there's just
52:55 more like infra where it's extremely
52:58 clear that it's like capitalizing on a
53:00 narrative and it doesn't really make
53:03 sense fundamentally and and obviously
53:05 like meme coins and all this stuff like
53:07 it's it's a bit of a like Financial
53:10 dystopia like a you know a result of
53:12 people a bit of a financial Financial
53:14 dystopia whereas in previous Cycles I
53:16 feel like the things that succeeded like
53:18 kind of made they had like fundamental
53:20 narratives that made sense right like
53:21 Thor chain had had a had a use case that
53:23 made sense like the the Al coins of this
53:25 world there was like a a narrative
53:28 behind them that kind of made sense
53:29 where some of the stuff now um just just
53:33 makes less sense and yeah because that's
53:35 what the the Market's rewarding like
53:38 that's the Market's rewarding like
53:39 eventually the market or whoever is
53:40 bidding up these things will run out of
53:42 money because it's ridiculous and
53:44 they're just getting constantly dumped
53:45 on and eventually those people will run
53:48 out of money and the market will become
53:49 more efficient and then the market won't
53:50 reward this stuff anymore but yeah like
53:53 yeah it's all still on the way up so you
53:56 have price Discovery so people keep
53:58 bidding whereas kind of the stuff that
53:59 was previously built reached some level
54:02 of ceiling because there's you know
54:03 either a fundamental way to kind of
54:05 value it or or or or some other reason
54:08 and so that yeah that's it's been you
54:10 know it's like speculation ends up being
54:13 the the primary kind of driver of all
54:15 this stuff and and because a lot of the
54:17 stuff is just still going up money keeps
54:19 FL there yeah there there are some like
54:22 new apps that I mean drip house is cool
54:25 podcaster has been getting Buzz I do
54:27 think deep in we will see some I know
54:29 it's like a Mimi word I do think
54:31 there'll be like some real stuff that
54:33 comes out of that but but to your point
54:35 like yeah it we have you know at the end
54:40 2020 we wrote a year ahead and we said
54:43 it's going to be a big year for infra
54:44 because we don't have the right infra to
54:46 scale and so now it's like okay we don't
54:48 need much more infra uh and so but these
54:51 things go in Cycles between infra app
54:53 like the big app was
54:55 right but defi is really just backend
54:58 it's not front-facing
55:00 uh like Tech it needs to be backend and
55:02 so now we need to get we had the backend
55:05 figured out now we need to get these
55:07 like front end applications so yeah no
55:10 and I definitely like don't want it to
55:12 be all like we're bearish it's just like
55:13 where we are in the market right now
55:15 it's where the incentives are I
55:16 definitely think we could do an episode
55:17 on like you know positive use cases and
55:21 interesting applications I've been
55:22 listening to recently like bology just
55:25 posted like maybe 10 days ago his like
55:27 Network State podcast he just posted 10
55:29 episodes a bunch of them are on crypto
55:30 it's actually like you know if you want
55:32 some good hopium about about the future
55:34 and how really bullish on network States
55:36 I mean there's still a lot of narratives
55:38 that that I'm really bullish on I I just
55:40 mean sort of like the stuff that's being
55:42 rewarded like you said yeah um a lot of
55:44 it is is and and and then there's like
55:47 the people that see it being rewarded
55:48 and go to build the same things and and
55:50 there's like a lot of people front
55:51 running the meta like oh I'm on this all
55:53 L1 and like there's literally nothing
55:56 here but this thing's trading at
55:57 multi-billion dollars so uh I'm gonna
56:00 build like I'm G to do an nft collection
56:01 or an nft Marketplace because it's the
56:03 only beta on L1 and you know like the
56:06 these games being played which is just
56:08 and then people fund it and like it kind
56:10 of becomes reflexive and that's a bit of
56:12 a shame but yeah I think we should we
56:13 could definitely do an episode on I
56:15 think we will actually like on a week
56:17 where we don't have as much to talk
56:18 about do the one on narratives where we
56:20 just cover like the main crypto
56:21 narratives which ones we're we're
56:23 excited about but Network stays there's
56:25 a lot of really cool stuff happening
56:27 like yeah we let's talk about it on the
56:29 future episode but we've been on this
56:30 for a while I want to move to altcoin
56:32 Corner if people have stuff to cover I
56:34 know cedus uh is uh doesn't like it he's
56:38 you can give your little
56:41 highbrow snoy rant about how you don't
56:43 approve of this as the as the head of
56:45 our institutional research arm but the
56:47 people have spoken and they demand Alpha
56:50 so we're going to go quick Allon corner
56:52 and then and then call
56:53 it who wants to start I mean Duncan you
56:57 dressed up for this one so maybe you
56:59 wanna synapse sweater on and uh the mug
57:04 then also I'm wearing the sweatpants but
57:05 I'm not gonna show you guys that
57:08 um because this is kind of uh like what
57:12 just shows this like kind of these new
57:13 coins being rewarded with these like
57:15 high fdbs but Wormhole is like on
57:19 hyper hyper liquid I think is trading
57:22 premarket at like 5.7 billion which is
57:24 like insane and uh synaps one of my
57:29 longtime Holdings is doing so in the
57:33 past seven days Wormhole has done SE or
57:35 portal by Wormhole has done 71 million
57:38 in volume and snap's done 460 million in
57:41 volume and yet snap's trading like 130
57:44 million market cap so it's like you know
57:46 35x difference and it's it's doing five
57:50 times the amount of volume in the past
57:51 seven days as a bridge and they also
57:53 have the vision of like um like the the
57:56 center chain and like connecting these
58:00 like uh these different rollups and evm
58:02 stuff C I don't want you to grow me on
58:04 it because I couldn't explain how it
58:06 works but I think it's a very similar
58:09 vision and uh you know the the team at
58:11 tabs is obviously really smart but it's
58:13 just like a goes to show kind of a
58:15 product with like a lot of users and a
58:17 lot of usage like 130
58:19 mil Bridges is an interesting one right
58:22 because you had layer zero I think
58:23 raised in by we we're investors in in in
58:26 layer zero but they they raised the last
58:28 round at at three bill in like 2021 and
58:30 obviously since then I think it's 2021
58:32 or 2022 since then have had a lot of um
58:36 a lot of progress and then I think
58:38 Wormhole also raised the last round at
58:40 like two and a half or something like
58:41 this and and like the the actual bridges
58:43 that are that are trading on public
58:44 markets are are trading well below this
58:47 right like Axel which is uh doing really
58:50 well in fundamentals is trading at like
58:51 one bill or so and then synaps has
58:53 obviously been crushed trading like 100
58:56 Mil or something like this so it'll be
58:58 interesting if there is like a a
59:00 repricing um once the once these these
59:03 these other Bridges launch which are
59:05 obviously going to be like huge
59:06 launchers I think Wormhole and layer
59:07 zero are both like awesome teams been
59:09 executing for a while will be will be
59:11 big launches but yeah Yan I know you
59:13 have some some alt coins too you wanted
59:17 you no just basically gonna I think like
59:20 eth beta is a good setup going into a
59:23 lot of these unlocks so now can move the
59:25 money around from all these chains they
59:27 just launched their RFQ bridging which
59:29 is basically like listen man this is
59:31 what I'll say about
59:33 100K between Ethan Ethan eth beta you
59:38 have all these narratives you had
59:40 [Â __Â ] salot outage this is the time
59:45 when to like kind of make a move right C
59:48 is no one cares about this Sal outage
59:50 though apparently not it's already above
59:52 the so the so e ratio is already above
59:54 where it was when it went out
59:58 so yeah you want to go more specific you
01:00:01 want to talk about your R bit or
01:00:04 anything else as well still the
01:00:05 fundamentally cheapest protocol in the
01:00:08 space if the revenue is if if the
01:00:11 revenues are real yeah the market seems
01:00:13 to be pricing in that the revenues are
01:00:14 definitely not real which is weird I
01:00:16 think it's it's more about the market
01:00:19 sorry how the market values buy and burn
01:00:22 versus a REV share model where where buy
01:00:25 and burn just takes is is a much longer
01:00:28 time Horizon uh value acol system versus
01:00:31 yield repricing much more uh near term
01:00:35 because you know there's an actual yield
01:00:37 and and and so somebody will will bid it
01:00:39 up to some Market equivalent yield
01:00:41 whereas buy and burn is just you kind of
01:00:43 hold until it's supply and demand but
01:00:45 you have some you know assistance on the
01:00:47 demand side but I think you know it it's
01:00:49 basically over a longer time Horizon buy
01:00:52 and burn leads to a higher value but
01:00:54 over shorter time Horizons yield does
01:00:56 and then I think you discount buy and
01:00:58 burn more based on kind of going concern
01:01:01 right because if if the if the value
01:01:03 doesn't ACR until far out and and you
01:01:05 have going concern around the project
01:01:07 then you discount the present value even
01:01:09 more and so I think that's kind of
01:01:11 what's happening at the moment but yeah
01:01:13 the business itself is still burning 2%
01:01:14 of Supply a month so pretty
01:01:20 nuts yeah one one
01:01:23 thing you've been seen this on Twitter a
01:01:25 lot like did the dimension air drop
01:01:27 right they gave a bunch to like pudgy
01:01:29 Penguins uh mad Lads bad kids and I own
01:01:33 all these as well as your but I think
01:01:35 you're you it seems like this is a new
01:01:38 narrative that is starting to pick up
01:01:39 that people think that nftd communities
01:01:41 are going to be targeted in air drops
01:01:43 more um because it's somewhat less it's
01:01:47 somewhat harder to sible I guess because
01:01:48 you actually have to like put up
01:01:51 meaningful Capital to get these things
01:01:54 and I think like you know you've seen
01:01:56 bad kid bad kids like double the last
01:01:58 week and Pudgies go up again and
01:02:01 everyone's talking about you know are
01:02:03 Pudgies gonna get like layer zero
01:02:05 dropped and all this so I think this is
01:02:07 a bit of a narrative shift or like
01:02:12 nfts I think like yeah the targeting
01:02:14 them sort of deal now maybe this is just
01:02:17 made up by the nft communities because
01:02:18 all these people own free tokens so like
01:02:23 the see the pudgy guys and they like air
01:02:25 drop to us because like we're gonna dime
01:02:27 in hand I mean I don't know yeah I mean
01:02:29 we're also like I guess in the cycle of
01:02:33 large projects doing air drops we're
01:02:36 we're we're a decent chunk of the way
01:02:38 through there's not that many left well
01:02:41 blast and probably I layer too it's
01:02:44 gonna stay within
01:02:46 blast anoma Wormhole layer zero there
01:02:50 this yeah there's five that'll launch in
01:02:53 multi-billion dollar after
01:02:55 yeah let's wrap it it was a long one all
01:02:56 right guys thanks very much for tuning
01:02:57 in for one more to one more episode of
01:02:59 The Hive mine and see you again in two
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