00:00ever since BTC started hitting new
00:03all-time highs everyone has been
00:05wondering when altcoin season will come
00:08so far only a few coins and tokens and a
00:12heck of a lot of meme coins have seen
00:14really big gains and this has led to
00:17speculation That altcoin season may
00:19never come because the flows into the
00:22spot Bitcoin ETFs won't find their way
00:25into the rest of the crypto
00:27Market however there is much more to
00:31this story so today we're going to
00:33explain what altcoin season is why it
00:37hasn't happened yet when it could start
00:40how to tell that it is starting and
00:43which altcoins you need to watch Miss
00:46this and you'll miss
00:48out now the reason why I want to begin
00:51with what altcoin season is is because
00:55there doesn't seem to be a universal
00:57definition many believe that altcoin
00:59season just means a period when lots of
01:02altcoins are pumping as such You could
01:04argue that altcoin season is already
01:06here because well lots of altcoins have
01:09been pumping clearly this definition
01:12misses the mark So allow me to propose a
01:14more accurate one an altcoin season is a
01:18prolonged period where most altcoins
01:21significantly outperform
01:24BTC this is something that can be easily
01:27measured by comparing an Al coins price
01:30to BTC such as for instance eth BTC if
01:35you look at the BTC pair for most old
01:38coins you'll see that they haven't
01:40actually been performing very well to be
01:42clear this doesn't mean that they
01:45haven't pumped in feat terms it just
01:47means that they've pumped less relative
01:50to BTC eth is the elephant in the room
01:53in this regard it continues to fall
01:56against BTC this has been concerning for
01:59many crypto Traders and investors
02:01because historically BTC rallies are
02:04followed by a rotation into altcoins in
02:08plain English after BTC pumps Traders
02:11will take a portion of their BTC profits
02:13and invest them into altcoins resulting
02:15in a period where most altcoins
02:18outperform BTC historically this Capital
02:22starts by rotating into e then into
02:25other large capap altcoins then into
02:27midcap altcoins and finally into small
02:30cap alt coins it goes without saying
02:32that this rotation isn't exact but it
02:35follows the logic that as markets keep
02:38rallying people tend to invest in
02:40riskier and riskier cryptos this time
02:43around however there has been minimal
02:45rotation into e evidenced by the weak e
02:48BTC pair I mentioned a few moments ago
02:51not only that but it seems that these
02:53Capital flows skipped over all the other
02:56midcaps and small caps and went straight
02:58into speculating on micro cap meme coins
03:01now make no mistake there are some
03:03altcoins that have outperformed BTC with
03:06soul being the most notable besides soul
03:10and a few dozen micro cap meme coins
03:12however most other altcoins have
03:14underperformed BTC including eth this
03:18means that altcoin season arguably isn't
03:21here yet now as I just hinted the
03:24smaller the market cap the more risky a
03:27crypto is this is because when a crypto
03:30has a smaller market cap it can rally
03:32higher and faster than cryptos with
03:35larger market caps the catch is that it
03:37can also crash lower and harder than
03:40cryptos with larger market caps it's
03:44reward naturally the 100x gains you've
03:47heard about and we all dream of are only
03:49really possible with altcoins that have
03:52smaller market caps hence why altcoin
03:54season is such a big deal but it's
03:58becoming clear that this crypto cycle is
04:00different from previous ones and that
04:03could have big implications for altcoin
04:06returns so why are we not seeing the
04:10same rotation we saw in previous cycles
04:13and When will altcoin season come well
04:16before I give you the answers smash that
04:18like button if you're enjoying the video
04:20so far and subscribe to the channel and
04:22ping that notification Bell so you don't
04:39sir go on so tell me about these
04:43anxieties you've been experiencing when
04:45did they first manifest themselves well
04:48you know I I think they first started
04:50when I got into crypto I I started to
04:52worry about all kinds of stuff such as
04:56well I became anxious that I was
04:57spending you know way too much on
04:59exchange fees like every time I made a
05:02trade boom more precious crypto gone and
05:05I I I I felt like I was missing out in
05:07other ways to what are the ways well for
05:09instance why didn't I get a a a sign up
05:12bonus when I registered on an exchange I
05:14mean come on they they should be
05:15welcoming me with open arms that's a
05:17common feeling for many people in crypto
05:20yeah go figure and I kept getting told
05:22to buy a hardware wallet to keep my
05:24crypto safe but you know some of those
05:25things ain't cheap huh I what's the guy
05:27to do well you know there's a for those
05:30concerns you mean medication no I mean
05:33like the coin Bureau deals page it is
05:35trade and fee discounts on top crypto
05:37exchanges it offers sign up bonuses of
05:40$60,000 and it has discounts on the best
05:43hardware wallet too you mean I I just go
05:46to the coin Bureau deals page and I'm
05:48cured yeah absolutely just head down
05:50using the link down below okay I'm on my
05:55way now let's start by acknowledging the
05:58reason why this cycle is different and
06:01that's the spot Bitcoin ETFs as I
06:03mentioned in the introduction some
06:05believe that these spot Bitcoin ETFs are
06:07why we haven't had an ALT season that's
06:10because it's not possible to rotate out
06:12of the ETFs and into altcoins at least
06:15in theory in practice it is quite
06:18possible that some spot Bitcoin ETF
06:20investors are cashing out their gains
06:22depositing them into a crypto exchange
06:24like coinbase and buying altcoins the
06:28caveat though is that most spot Bitcoin
06:31ETF investors are not retail investors
06:33in the classic sense they're experienced
06:36institutional investors this means that
06:39their altcoin preferences are likely to
06:41be very different from those of the
06:43average crypto dgen if you watched our
06:46last salana update you'll know that
06:49there's been significant institutional
06:51demand for soul this could explain why
06:54it's been one of the few altcoins
06:56outperforming BTC but if if you watched
07:00our recent crypto market update you'll
07:02know that the crypto Market isn't just
07:04made up of institutional investors
07:06buying the spot Bitcoin ETFs in other
07:09words you haven't taken anything away
07:12from the crypto Market you've just
07:14unlocked a new main character so to
07:17speak now the other main characters in
07:20The crypto Market are crypto whales
07:22which have been the primary drivers of
07:24the market up until this point it's the
07:27rotation out of BTC into altcoins by
07:31crypto Wales that's caused previous
07:33altcoin cycles and Retail investors that
07:36have caused altcoins to hit their
07:38blowoff tops logically then the absence
07:42of an ALT season is not due to the spot
07:44Bitcoin ETFs but due to crypto Wales and
07:47Retail investors as we mentioned in that
07:49market update video we believe that
07:52crypto Wales haven't been rotating into
07:54altcoins because there are no retail
07:57investors around to buy them case in
07:59point there are dozens of Statistics to
08:02suggest that retail investors are still
08:05waking up to the crypto rally these
08:07include the retail trading volume on
08:09crypto exchanges the popularity of
08:12crypto exchange apps searches for crypto
08:15related terms and even the views on this
08:18channel these metrics are still far
08:20below the levels that would suggest that
08:23new retail investors are entering the
08:25crypto Market on mass and the key word
08:30retail investors there are millions of
08:32retail investors from past Cycles who
08:34are still around or coming back sooner
08:36but we're missing all the newcomers this
08:40is extremely important to point out
08:42because for altcoins to really pump we
08:45need what my friend Ben Cowan refers to
08:47as the marginal buyer put simply we need
08:51new people for our altcoin bags to pump
08:54probably because most of us have already
08:56allocated as much as we can to our
08:58favorite coins and tokens in the absence
09:01of these new people there's not that
09:03much for us to do except speculate on
09:06Meme coins and it's quite possible that
09:09the mcoin pumps we've seen have been
09:12coordinated by the crypto Wales they
09:15probably know that the only retail
09:17investors around right now are
09:19experienced enough to use dexes so now
09:23that we've assessed why altcoin season
09:25isn't here yet The Logical follow-up
09:27question is when will come the short
09:31answer is that it will come once there
09:33are enough retail investors paying
09:35attention for crypto Wales to start
09:37rotating out of BTC and into altcoins
09:41that these retail investors will then
09:43fomo into the long answer however is a
09:46bit more complicated and it requires
09:48going back in time to the previous cycle
09:51of course when most of us imagine the
09:54next altcoin season it looks similar to
09:56what we saw in the previous cycle the is
09:59that what we saw in the previous cycle
10:01was pretty different too we locked
10:04billions of people in their homes
10:05because of a global pandemic and gave a
10:07few hundred million of them some extra
10:09spending money when you combine these
10:12two factors you get rampant speculation
10:15in stocks and crypto today the backdrop
10:19couldn't be more different in almost
10:21every country interest rates are the
10:23highest they've been in decades in most
10:26countries The Unofficial inflation rate
10:28is in the double digits some countries
10:31are in recession with many others close
10:33to it most importantly however the
10:36average person is reportedly taking on
10:39record levels of debt in order to get by
10:42to be blunt it's literally the opposite
10:45of the conditions we had during the
10:47previous alt season now the Silver
10:49Lining to this is that the longer these
10:52conditions continue the more likely it
10:54is that governments and central banks
10:56will intervene with similar kinds of
10:59never mind the possibility of an
11:03shock what this means is there should
11:05come a point where we get a similar
11:07backdrop to the one we had during the
11:09pandemic in terms of fiscal and monetary
11:12stimulus now exactly when is Up For
11:15Debate but it will probably require what
11:18I noted a few moments ago some
11:20existential shock that justifies
11:23stimulus it's safe to say that crypto
11:26and most other assets would crash in the
11:28event of such a shock additional banking
11:30crises not withstanding assuming history
11:33repeats the shock would be followed by a
11:35few weeks of suppressed price action and
11:38then an explosion to the upside as the
11:41stimulus hits the markets on that note
11:44if you watched our more recent crypto
11:46market update you'll know that BTC lags
11:49liquidity aka the amount of money in the
11:52markets by about 6 weeks this means that
11:55it would take roughly 6 weeks for BTC
11:58and altcoins to start rallying after we
12:00experience a shock and a stimulative
12:03response but again this assumes that a
12:05shock will come the worst case scenario
12:09for altcoins would actually be if the
12:10current conditions continue interest
12:13rates remain high inflation keeps Rising
12:16recessions keep coming and Retail debt
12:19keeps piling up if this happens the next
12:22alt season may not be as big as most of
12:25us expect moreover it's easy to forget
12:28that the structure of the crypto Market
12:30has changed since the last cycle and not
12:32just because of the spot Bitcoin ETFs
12:35regulations in the US UK and elsewhere
12:38have made it harder for retail investors
12:40to access the offshore exchanges where
12:42the most speculative altcoins can be
12:44found and in the case of the EU it's
12:47going to be very interesting to see how
12:50much its upcoming stablecoin regulations
12:52will change the crypto Market in case
12:54you missed the memo USD stable coins
12:57will effectively be and in the EU by the
13:01end of the year this could likewise
13:04limit altcoin availability for retail
13:07investors so with all that in mind we
13:10can address the question of how to tell
13:12when altcoin season is starting the
13:15short answer is to watch all the
13:17indicators I mentioned earlier this
13:19means retail trading volume crypto
13:21exchange app popularity Google searches
13:23and yes the views on channels like this
13:25one when you start to see all of these
13:28indicator is rising then chances are alt
13:31season is about to begin believe it or
13:33not but you could make the case for this
13:35today Search terms for things like buy
13:38crypto are starting to creep up for the
13:41first time in years but are still far
13:44from their previous highs the thing is
13:46that it's hard to say whether this is
13:48the beginning of a new alt season or one
13:51of the few speculative waves we tend to
13:53see leading up to it one way to figure
13:56this out is to look at how crypto
13:58projects are marketing themselves and
14:00particularly if they're making big
14:02announcements not surprisingly it
14:04appears that most crypto projects tend
14:06to make their biggest announcements when
14:08more people are paying attention we've
14:10even seen a few instances of crypto
14:12projects delaying big updates and
14:14announcements when there wasn't enough
14:16interest from retail investors obviously
14:19lots of crypto projects have been making
14:21big announcements lately and this is
14:23another indicator That altcoin season
14:25could be starting however there have
14:28only been a few instances where these
14:30announcements actually translated into
14:32speculative buying indicating a
14:34continuing shortage of retail investors
14:38so once you start to see lots of crypto
14:40projects making big announcements and
14:42their coins or tokens pumping a lot in
14:45response that's when you'll know that
14:47retail investors have started arriving
14:50and when you start to see these big
14:52altcoin announcements on the mainstream
14:54news it's probably close to the top
14:56funnily enough a few of these big
14:58altcoin announc an ments have also been
15:00showcased by some mainstream media
15:02outlets and I'm sure some of you have
15:05experienced other top signals such as
15:07friends and family asking you about
15:08what's going on in crypto or Worse how
15:11to buy memecoins even in these cases
15:14though if people aren't putting their
15:16money where their mouth is then it
15:18doesn't count if mainstream reporting of
15:20altcoin news isn't causing a significant
15:22pump and your friends and family aren't
15:24aping in then it's not exactly an ALT
15:27season remember that many of them have
15:30altcoin bags too another way to know
15:33that an ALT season is about to happen is
15:35to assess whether these indicators are
15:37flashing at a time that an altcoin
15:39season would be likely to occur from a
15:42cycle perspective this is admittedly
15:44tricky to assess because the spot
15:46Bitcoin ETFs seem to have warped the
15:48cycle a bit for context crypto follows a
15:524-year cycle this means that we should
15:54be in the early 2020 phase of the
15:57previous crypto cycle when prices were
15:59starting to creep up and experienced a
16:01flash crash because of an existential
16:04shock before going higher however it's
16:07possible that we're on an accelerated
16:09schedule specifically we could be closer
16:12to the late 2020 stage of the crypto
16:14Market cycle and not just because of the
16:17spot Bitcoin ETFs by this point there
16:20are millions of people who have been
16:21through two crypto Cycles 2017 and 2021
16:26they know how the story goes and they
16:29know what comes next the Practical
16:31effect of this is that we won't be
16:33waiting a year for altcoin season to
16:35start as was the case in 2020 instead it
16:39could just be a few months but again
16:42this assumes that we're on an
16:44accelerated schedule crypto could still
16:47be on the same schedule which just means
16:49that well we're all early to alt season
16:53so this brings me to the big question
16:55and that's which altcoins you need to
16:58watch this season I'll start by saying
17:01that if we are indeed all early to alt
17:03season then it's probably the perfect
17:06time to start accumulating that said
17:09this is not Financial advice and it's
17:12quite possible that it's the worst time
17:14to start accumulating so with that
17:17disclaimer out of the way the altcoins
17:19you need to watch this season are those
17:22that will be the most accessible to
17:24retail investors this ties into to what
17:27I mentioned earlier and that the
17:29structure of the crypto Market it looks
17:32like most retail investing will happen
17:34on onshore exchanges like for instance
17:37coinbase if this ends up being the case
17:40then it may be prudent to focus on
17:43altcoins that are listed on coinbase
17:46this relates to another thing I
17:48mentioned earlier and that's market cap
17:50the smaller the market cap the bigger
17:53the risk but the bigger the reward and
17:56picking a crypto with a low price tag
17:58could help too that's because most
18:01retail investors believe that a low
18:03price tag means that a coin or token
18:06could pump more when it's actually the
18:08market cap that really matters so by
18:11combining a low price tag with a low
18:13market cap you end up with some solid
18:16fundamentals or as some influencers like
18:20but being listed on coinbase and having
18:23a low price tag and market cap is not
18:26all the ideal altcoin needs to have it
18:29also needs to fit into a bullish
18:31narrative and have a use case that the
18:34average retail investor can understand
18:37and ape into you can refer to our video
18:39about bull market narratives for help
18:42there now if you want to be extra sure
18:44that the crypto you picked is the right
18:46one you need to research its tokenomics
18:49that means how many coins or tokens
18:52could come into the market in the future
18:54because the last thing you want is to
18:56buy a promising altcoin only to get
18:58dumped on by the team and their VC
19:00backers and if you prefer coins and
19:03tokens that are less volatile but still
19:05likely to do well then you should
19:07consider picking a large altcoin to be
19:10exact you need to pick a smart contract
19:12cryptocurrency that most of the
19:14promising tokens are trading on hint we
19:17mentioned a few of these cryptos earlier
19:20in the video and finally you need to
19:22realize that if you do get into a
19:24promising altcoin at a good time then
19:27you may be better off holding it for the
19:29longer term as many members of the coin
19:32Bureau team can attest they would have
19:34just as much money today if they had
19:36just held their altcoin bags through the
19:38bare market after all crypto is
19:41fundamentally creating new systems be
19:44they Financial or otherwise While most
19:47of these systems and the projects within
19:49them will go to zero some of them will
19:52stick around the ones that do could be
19:55worth trillions of dollars someday just
19:58how BT C is worth north of a trillion
20:00today speaking of which it's important
20:02to remember that BTC has the longest and
20:05most proven track record of any coin or
20:08token this makes it the safest crypto to
20:11hold on a relative basis although it's
20:13likely that others will someday have the
20:15same Safe Haven status it's impossible
20:18to know for sure which ones so if you
20:21prefer not to take the risk of holding
20:23on to an altcoin and seeing if it will
20:25stand the test of time consider
20:27allocating to the original crypto that
20:29could someday become the world's Reserve
20:32currency it sounds crazy until you
20:34realize that central banks will start
20:37accumulating BTC in 2025 and you can
20:41find out more about that in the
20:44description and that is all for today's
20:47video folks so if you found it helpful
20:49smash that like button to let us know if
20:51you want to make sure you keep getting
20:53helpful crypto content subscribe to the
20:55channel and ping that notification Bell
20:57and if you want to help others
20:59understand what's going on with alt
21:00season why not share this video with
21:02them as always thank you for watching
21:04and I'll see you all in the next one
21:06this is Guy bidding you
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