00:10hi I'm Mike sto chief analyst of cat
00:12growth investor and CA top 10 Trader I'm
00:14here with your cabat weekly review on
00:16the Ides of March March 15th late Friday
00:18morning um not much new with the overall
00:21Market it's it's an interesting
00:23situation um if you were kind of dropped
00:25in from outer space you just look at the
00:27evidence and most of it's still positive
00:29the intermediate term trend of you know
00:31all the major indexes is up some of them
00:33hit new highs recently intermediate term
00:35trend of most stocks is up even the
00:37broad Market um leading stocks you know
00:39still trending higher that sort of thing
00:42that said over the past month there's no
00:44question that you know the NASDAQ uh
00:46I'll show you the NASDAQ the IBD 50
00:48index a lot of you know of the tech AI
00:50leaders have done a lot more chopping
00:53than trending they've really kind of
00:54just been up down up down the really
00:56since early February so it's not so much
00:59um you know a yellow light or a yellow
01:01flag or whatever red flag it's more like
01:03the green light has gotten a little
01:05dimmer I guess I would say so like the
01:06evidence has gotten a little bit less
01:08you know bullish from you know really a
01:11stampede a stampede higher there for
01:12three or four months um off the lows but
01:15at the same time it's not like we've
01:17seen any you know major breakdowns or
01:20you know tons of abnormal action yes
01:21there's going to be some earnings
01:22blowups that happens all the time but
01:24nothing nothing you know widespread
01:25that's that's obvious at this point so
01:28to me I kind of like where we're at C
01:29growth investors model portfolio we're
01:31being selective on the buy side we did
01:32put some money to work last week we have
01:34about a quarter in cash could go a
01:36little bit lower could go a little
01:37higher depends on the day if you ask me
01:39you know but I think something like that
01:41makes sense while we're trying to hold
01:42on to most of our winners you know that
01:45have been really off to a good start
01:47because big picture still looks like
01:49we're earlyish in a hopefully a bull
01:51phase so some of these things can go a
01:53lot higher down the road um but we're
01:55not you know we're not chasing every
01:57uptick or buying every breakout or
01:59something like that we're trying to be a
02:00little bit more selective because
02:01there's no question you know the buyers
02:02and sellers are fighting it out here and
02:04we'll just take it dayto day you know if
02:05this is just a consolidation here the
02:07last 5 week six weeks and we just start
02:10to ramp from here which a pause that
02:11refreshes we'll you know I'll be there
02:14um at the same time you know sentiments
02:15elevated some of these things have had
02:17big runs so you know having a little bit
02:19of cash being Discerning makes sense to
02:21see how leadership reacts um especially
02:24the names that kind of LED coming out of
02:25the gate there last November okay so
02:28let's hop in the charts using Market
02:30surge again they changed the name but
02:32similar product improved product from
02:34Investors Business Daily you can learn
02:35more at markets surge.com so you know as
02:38always we'll start with the indexes and
02:40you're going to see you know this is the
02:42NASDAQ and you're going to see you know
02:43a lot of sort of on the daily chart you
02:45know up down up down action at the same
02:47time as I record this the index is at
02:49its 25 day moving average so again it's
02:52not so much like a yellow flag it's more
02:54just like well the green light's a
02:56little dimmer is kind of how I'm putting
02:58it um and then back here you know the
03:00index kind of hit 16,000 this was
03:03February 8th or 9th I think it was so
03:05you know 5 weeks ago and you can see
03:08just no net progress since then that's
03:10not abnormal it's just sort of a I'm
03:12just stating facts you know um so but
03:14you know the intermediate terms Trend up
03:16but you know with some of the NASDAQ
03:17stuff it has been more choppy than than
03:20uptrending okay some of the other
03:21indexes look better S&P 500 smoother and
03:24I'm going to talk about one area of the
03:26market that is starting to come to life
03:28not a growth area but still worth um
03:30worth monitoring um the midcaps here mdy
03:34you know you can see this is uh
03:36stretched higher to new I think it's
03:38alltime highs I think it actually did
03:39click alltime High here highs here
03:42recently um New York composite either
03:44way you can just see the trend is up for
03:45all of them even things that have been
03:47chopping around even the small caps
03:49which remain you know the worst thing
03:52out there worst thing meaning the
03:53lagging it's still above the 50-day line
03:56still hanging around multi-month high so
03:58you can do a lot worse than that okay um
04:01but you are seeing some of that churning
04:02same thing in like the IBD 50 index um
04:05it's it's hard to you know the daily
04:07chart has uh it's only priced once a day
04:10but take my word for it this was kind of
04:11that February 9th high and I'm just
04:14drawing a straight line across so
04:15basically unchanged again for five weeks
04:17is it abnormal no same thing it's kind
04:19of sitting at this green line which is
04:20the 25 day moving average but just
04:23getting more choppy and you've probably
04:25my guess is you've noticed even if
04:27you're buying some fresher names and
04:29there are pressure leaders will go over
04:31you know it's not like a ton of money is
04:32being made the last few weeks I mean
04:34there's some stuff that goes up but
04:36there's other things that are kind of
04:37getting hit and chopping around so it's
04:38not like it's not like it was in
04:40November December January is what I'm
04:42trying to say okay so we'll just have to
04:44see how it plays out maybe this just s
04:46of chops around a little bit and then we
04:48resume maybe we kind of come down here
04:50and test the 50-day line and maybe get a
04:52little fear built up a little bit more
04:53discomfort built up which is a good
04:56thing contrarily for the market um maybe
04:59it's a top and interest rates which
05:01we'll mention here in a second you know
05:02really cause a big correction I would
05:04guess a huge correction is the least
05:05likely scenario just because this is
05:07sort of the first maybe the first
05:09pullback if we get it in a bull move
05:11tends to be a little bit more well
05:13controlled especially in the indexes but
05:15we'll just play it by air okay um the
05:17other one too is the semiconductors it's
05:19clearly the leading growth group really
05:21going back to a year ago in the spring
05:24um but even coming out of this you know
05:26run here it was at 136 this is the SMH
05:29to 24 40 so 140 to 240 and that's a hell
05:32of a run it has backed off here so again
05:35it had a little bit of a blowoff this
05:36was the Nvidia reversal last Friday I
05:39think it was Thursday Friday and so it's
05:41come down since then but again you're
05:42not even down to the 25 day line and
05:44it's not like it's just you know it's
05:47not like you had four days in a row
05:48where it's just boom boom boom down you
05:50know 1% a day um so we'll see how it
05:53goes I'm not willing to to to count it
05:55out now we start kind of coming up here
05:58you know it's a few weeks later and it's
05:59it's sort of a topping area we'll figure
06:01that out but at this point the chip
06:02stocks are weakening but again not like
06:05negatively just sort of not as strong as
06:07they were okay um to be fair on the flip
06:09side this is the ivid mutual fund index
06:11this thick blue line and you know there
06:15really hasn't been much of a pullback
06:16this is delayed by a day so yesterday
06:18maybe it's down here but again a little
06:20choppy but still well above the 25 day
06:22moving average and stuff like the IPO um
06:25fund from Renaissance which obviously
06:27tracks IPOs in the past year or two um
06:31you know it's still trending clearly
06:32higher and there's not as much chop so
06:34it depends where you're looking at it's
06:35mainly the AI sort of the popular tech
06:37stocks you're seeing more choppiness
06:40chip stocks networking cyber security
06:43stuff like that you're seeing some of
06:44those take a break okay so we'll just
06:46see how it plays out the other thing
06:48before we get to stocks here is just to
06:50mention the Bugaboo here and this is
06:52going to be a Bugaboo until it isn't
06:54sort of thing to watch this is just
06:55interest rates um and the intermediate
06:58term Trend I would say
07:00you know it depends how you want to look
07:01at it but it was it's kind of been
07:02sideways here it's sort of above it
07:05depends how you want to call a if you
07:06want to make an indicator out of it but
07:08just eyeballing it you know big Trend
07:10down and we're pulling back in here it's
07:13not a huge pullback to the upside but
07:15this week I would say that the 10e and
07:17fiveyear notes are up like 20 to 25
07:19basis points just this week so you know
07:23yeah if these things start to really
07:25kick off on the upside my guess is
07:26there's going to be some reverberations
07:28in the market uh whether it's the broad
07:29Market leadership the whole Market
07:31whatever you know so just something to
07:33watch we'll see how this plays out
07:35inflation seems to be stickier so on so
07:37forth sometimes rates really affect
07:40things as they have sometimes they don't
07:42um but it's definitely worth noting here
07:44and we have seen the market react to the
07:46bumping interest rates this week okay so
07:49you know and if you really get a head of
07:50steam going and the intermediate term
07:51trend of rates really turns clearly up I
07:54mean I think that would be something the
07:55market would have to deal with okay but
07:57we'll see how it plays out terms of the
07:59market interestingly the reason I wanted
08:01to mention rates uh at the end there is
08:04um some home builders are a little
08:05they've got hit lenar had bad earnings
08:07this week but housing Supply and some of
08:09these construction stocks I'm pretty
08:11impressed with how they're acting this
08:12is Eagle materials um exp you can see on
08:15the weekly chart again it's kind of one
08:17of these recent more I guess I'd say
08:19more recent breakouts just maybe month
08:21and a half ago two months ago as opposed
08:24to November um but just really like
08:26smoke up a chimney nice beautiful volume
08:28cluster here before and after earnings
08:30this is back a couple months ago so it
08:31ran higher and now it's pulled back
08:33don't get me wrong it could continue to
08:35pull back it might even be a little bit
08:37better if it pulled back a little bit
08:38more in terms of if you're looking to
08:39enter but so far very little down here
08:42despite the big uptick and interest
08:44rates um this week so that looks pretty
08:46good AAC is another one this is kind of
08:48like TX you know AAC um and you know you
08:52had your big earnings Gap here um and
08:54it's continued higher round number
08:56resistance near 50 and again just a very
08:58very modest pull back could easily kind
09:00of pull in further especially if the
09:01market remains wobbly or continues to
09:03chop around I should say um but so far
09:05hasn't even touched the 25-day line
09:07which is pretty good okay um a lot of
09:09the fresher names are still they're not
09:11running higher but they're not doing
09:13anything wrong this is fresh pet I've
09:15mentioned this a hundred times it's a
09:17thinner name um you know sometimes I
09:20check hey you know check my quotes and
09:22I'm like oh fresh pet looks good and I
09:23click on it and it's you know it's it's
09:26whatever it's 20 minutes into the
09:27trading day and the thing's traded like
09:2915,000 shares so it can trade pretty
09:31thinly um even though overall it has
09:33enough liquidity um but just notice it
09:36had this big ear it had a big tight area
09:37here big earnings Gap and just very
09:39tight and controlled in here not a lot
09:41of volume you know not like there's been
09:43any big selling or buying just kind of
09:45chilling out after the post earnings
09:46action which is which is pretty good um
09:48Oka you know I mentioned cyber security
09:50if you look at um not to go on a tangent
09:52but this is like palow Alto networks
09:54huge earnings gap down and still kind of
09:57in the toilet um zscaler which was kind
09:59of a uh kind of a secondary leader not
10:02secondary it's a it's a real company but
10:03you know got hit on the Palo Alto news
10:06came all the way back and then got hit
10:07on its own earnings came all the way
10:09down um crowd strike um looks a lot
10:12better but you know still at the 25 day
10:14line but you can get kind of see the
10:16chop you here was the paloalto earnings
10:18I think this was the zscaler earnings
10:20and it had its own earnings at reverse
10:21you know so it's up down up down but
10:23overall still in decent shape here um
10:26what's interesting oaka has been a a
10:28lagered Oka a it was a lagard should say
10:31and you can see it's had this long sort
10:33of endless process but it tightened up a
10:35little bit here in the last few weeks
10:36before the breakout which was a
10:38character change big earnings Gap A
10:40little sloppy but just hanging in there
10:42pretty tight kind of like fresh pet very
10:44low volume so that looks pretty good
10:46okay um DraftKings I wanted to mention
10:48this just because this thing has kind of
10:50a history of um I don't want to say two
10:52steps forward one step back but it's a
10:54little bit like that on the weekly chart
10:55where it's it had this big off the-
10:57bottom run after the bare mark it but
11:00then it kind of like built the base ran
11:02up looked good and then corrected below
11:04the 50-day line or the 10 we line then
11:06ran up and now it's kind of straight
11:08sideways here for the last four weeks um
11:11so you know who knows again if the
11:12market kind of like the market you know
11:14is this a you know topping area and
11:16something happens and the stock dies
11:18it's possible um but you know the trend
11:21is still up business is good so on so
11:23forth just the name to keep an eye on if
11:24it can show some power in the market or
11:28at least some sections of the market can
11:30really show some you know buying power
11:32not just up down up down it could be
11:34offering an add-on buying opportunity if
11:36it shows some strength in my opinion
11:38bull market stocks look pretty good
11:40which is a probably a pretty good sign
11:41KKR looks great 100 round number
11:44resistance maybe it means it has to back
11:46off here but so far so good Apollo group
11:48another one of these big private Equity
11:50they're more heavy in credit um but you
11:52can just see you know it accelerated
11:54higher here beautifully before and after
11:57earnings and then just a nice tight
11:59controlled pullback here okay obviously
12:01if the market really pulls in a few
12:03percent you're probably going to see
12:04some of these you know bull market
12:06stocks get hit but so far you know so
12:09good they're they're not the fastest
12:10moving names but they they they tend to
12:11do pretty good over time in Interactive
12:13Broker same sort of pattern okay this is
12:15more of a pure brokerage name um you can
12:17kind of see on the weekly chart yeah
12:20again not the most dynamic name but nice
12:22base here up a million weeks in a row on
12:24the weekly chart okay and now this
12:27pullback here while things are exhaling
12:28very calm controlled not even to the 25
12:31day line yet how you want to play these
12:33or if you want to play these you know
12:34maybe look for further weakness maybe
12:37wait for a resumption maybe you don't do
12:39anything with them but just pointing out
12:40some pretty strong names that could be
12:42at or approaching decent entry points
12:45next um next tracker NXT um you know
12:49solar Still Remains again not to go on a
12:52tangent but just first Sol I mean First
12:53Solar looks bad nase
12:58shols know these are all the group the
13:00group is terrible so that that actually
13:02is kind of what's keeping me away from
13:04the stock but if you didn't know
13:05anything else about the um about the
13:07group or whatever the stock itself looks
13:10great I mean big earnings Gap here
13:12issue um they're free and clear from
13:14overhead like Flex used to own them and
13:16they spun off all their shares and it's
13:18really just gone I mean very very tight
13:20in here sideways here the last whatever
13:22month basically with the market on low
13:24volume so it is a name if you do you
13:26know if solar came to life my guess is
13:28guess just total guess this would be the
13:31leader obviously and maybe it can come
13:33out or you know consolidate a little bit
13:34more but next tracker looks pretty good
13:36in terms of some of the uh I don't want
13:38to say old leaders but names that got
13:39going so Uber is still you know it's had
13:42a big run here I mean it doubled from
13:44its lows to the recent move so you know
13:48I'm not going to say probably but if it
13:49needed a rest and a correction of some
13:51sort it would not be surprising that
13:54said so far I mean yes there's been some
13:56resistance up here yes it's chopped
13:58around but there's no real selling so
14:01far it's just chilling out near the 25
14:03day line it looks great so I I don't you
14:07know maybe it's here maybe it's lower
14:09again like some of these other names but
14:10so far holding in there pretty tightly
14:12which is a good sign um I wanted to
14:14mention paler just because this thing
14:16moves around a lot it's just it's lower
14:18priced it moves around this week it's
14:20down 8% okay um but it had this again
14:24five six seven months of no progress
14:26huge volume for two or three days after
14:29earnings tried to get going here but
14:31this is again the Market's not quite
14:33ready so we're seeing some of these
14:34stocks kind of like try to quote break
14:36out and then they kind of come right
14:37back in um and so you'd like to see it
14:40I'm not you know you'd like not to see
14:41it go down 3% a day obviously but it's
14:45just kind of back in this range looks
14:46pretty good again no real selling volume
14:49see maybe if it can find some support it
14:51is a name that's still on my watch list
14:53okay uh dve Busters play this has
14:56earnings well not till yeah not for
14:57another couple weeks but it looks like
14:59it's finally left this range behind
15:02decisively out and now again you just
15:04have this tight range nobody's talking
15:06about it it's not like you know it's a
15:07small yeah it's two2 and a half billion
15:09dollar market cap but nice kind of
15:11consolidation here axon this is a bigger
15:13market cap over 20 billion but again
15:15this is sort of like interactive brokers
15:17it had this nice Gap um you know weekly
15:20chart looks good all-time highs here you
15:22can see boom boom boom and now so far so
15:25good on the pullback very orderly could
15:27go further maybe 300 what ever but you
15:30know very orderly in here you're not
15:32seeing any you know down you know 14
15:34points or something like that it's just
15:35kind of nice and controlled in there and
15:38then the last thing I mentioned earlier
15:39there's kind of a new group emerging
15:40well it's commodity stocks which is
15:42interesting you know you know inflation
15:45is still high so on so forth so I'm not
15:46going to judge it or get into macro I'll
15:48let everyone else do that but you know
15:50just I'm just going to run through like
15:53exop excuse me this is oil producers you
15:56know explorers I'm not saying the ETF
15:59itself is you know buyable or whatever
16:01it's kind of back into some resistance
16:03but you can see it's actually been kind
16:05of cranking ahead all year since the
16:07turn of the year and it's popping a
16:09little bit now oil prices are kind of
16:10firm in the $80 range oil service stocks
16:13o not you know not as strong overall but
16:16again the same sort of pattern and there
16:19are some names even oil or outside of
16:21oil this is diamond back this was kind
16:24of a big acquisition they did which kind
16:25of made them maybe themselves an
16:27acquisition Target but either way the
16:29stock came alive rested and it's kind of
16:32followed through on the upside here um
16:34you have uh s Southern Copper scco which
16:38is obviously copper copper prices I
16:40don't have a chart here but beautiful
16:41breakout here um and even like a Steel
16:44Dynamics stld kind of right back up it's
16:47built this huge I mean it topped last
16:49March so it's been a year of these
16:51things kind of correcting and
16:52consolidating you know the numbers are
16:54bad but sort of that's what Commodities
16:56do is they tend to get going ahead of
16:59and now the stock is you know testing
17:01new highs I'm not saying there's some
17:02major blast off and Steel Dynamics but
17:04they're acting well so it is kind of
17:06interesting like maybe you are getting a
17:08uh some rotation under the surface in
17:10some of these you know oil Commodities
17:12copper whatever type names just
17:14something to keep an eye on okay um but
17:17as for the overall market like I said
17:19earlier all I can say is you know we're
17:21positive I'm bullish big picture I'm
17:23very bullish I think we can go a lot
17:25higher near term I think we are seeing
17:27it's a little bit of a character we are
17:29seeing the buyers and sellers fight it
17:30out we're seeing a lot more just up down
17:33choppy action you know news driven this
17:36economic report this earnings report
17:39from this company this group is down two
17:41days later that group's back up you know
17:43that sort of action so it's not negative
17:45it's not a red flag we're still in an
17:47uptrend um but I think there's no
17:49question that you know if you're in
17:51there buying every day or two the last
17:54probably month it's been a lot trickier
17:56than the prior three months you know the
17:57prior three months obviously mostly
17:58straight up so I think let's just see
18:00how it goes maybe this just kind of
18:01chills out for a little while and we
18:03resume higher I'm all for it and I'll be
18:04ready to pounce on more and more fresh
18:06leaders you know my guess is some of
18:08these tight charts I showed you will you
18:10know break out on the upside if that's
18:11the case um but you know if this kind of
18:14goes on for a while or we do have a
18:16modest pullback or there's some rotation
18:18just kind of keep on your toes from
18:19there so bullish but you know not
18:21flooring the accelerator right this
18:23second okay took a lot of time today
18:25that's all the time I do have for today
18:27uh thanks for watching this week's C
18:28weekly review and come by again next
