00:07 all right all right all
00:09 right let's get this party
00:13 started welcome to the 21st annual beer
00:17 Wine and Spirits Summit hard to believe
00:21 folks thank you for being here we're
00:24 glad you're here I bet you're glad
00:25 you're here now everybody bitched about
00:28 oh it's m okay weekend oh it's the wild
00:30 car games aren't you glad you're here
00:34 now Harry's always right thank you thank
00:37 you please hold your applause till the
00:40 presentation so we changed around the
00:43 the summit schedule a little bit one of
00:46 the things is now most people stay for
00:49 both and there was complaints that it
00:51 was too long so we cut one night off and
00:53 we did it this way now the the way it's
00:56 going to go is we're starting the beer
00:57 Summit today it goes through tomorrow
00:59 tomorrow at lunch and then wine spirit
01:02 suit starts after that and then ends the
01:05 next day at lunch and then you can
01:06 depart and we'll have a grab and go
01:08 lunch if you are only signed up for the
01:10 beer Summit and maybe your flight's been
01:12 cancelled probably uh just see Jessica
01:16 and she can register for you the wine
01:17 spirits thank you Lord and stay for the
01:20 whole thing it's a really good program
01:22 anyway so agenda in program uh is on the
01:27 back of your name tag and you can scan
01:30 this and also get the BIOS we're not
01:32 going to be reading uh our speakers bios
01:34 it takes too much time we only got 30
01:36 minutes per slot so if you want to read
01:39 more about our speakers just go to the
01:41 agenda and all the BIOS are there and
01:43 they're in order of the speaking not
01:46 alphabetical so it makes it easy on you
01:48 you know you're welcome um one thing is
01:51 we only have three social media
01:54 platforms that we operate on the first
01:57 one is YouTube where we we weekly upload
02:01 our weekly podcast beet radio if you're
02:04 not a listener I encourage you to be
02:06 especially if you're new in the industry
02:07 because we just talk about a lot of
02:08 things that are going on in a simple way
02:11 that even Layman would understand and
02:14 that's also on YouTube but it's also on
02:16 Spotify and and uh whatever Apple
02:18 podcast and then on Instagram WE Post
02:21 clips and pictures of kind of behind the
02:23 scenes what goes on at our Publications
02:26 if you're interested in that it's called
02:27 shoe pubs and then on Twitter or X or
02:31 whatever you want to call it it's beer
02:32 Biz daily and that's where we post if
02:34 there's breaking news or anything we
02:36 post it and then link to our article if
02:39 you're going to post about the summit
02:41 and we encourage you to um just use
02:43 hasht have Summit there's only like one
02:46 hairdresser in Miami currently using
02:47 that one so I think we're
02:49 good um so I'm here just to set the
02:55 table I'm not going to go too big into
02:57 the numbers because we have people here
02:58 who are going to do that so really
03:00 there's just three variables that I'm
03:02 interested in because we just got the
03:05 iri Circ numbers for the whole year 2003
03:08 on Friday so we have them we know what
03:11 happened in 2023 yes it was a show
03:14 but we have there are some mitigating
03:16 circumstances that I'll get into so it's
03:19 dollars volume and price and then price
03:22 again so and in within those we'll you
03:25 know go look at percent change and also
03:27 the change in market share percent
03:30 change to me is more important when
03:32 you're looking at smaller Brands and
03:33 smaller suppliers share change is more
03:36 important when you're looking at larger
03:37 Brands and larger suppliers because
03:40 obviously it's the actual volume that's
03:43 changing so here we go supplier
03:48 performance uh this is for the full
03:49 calendar year of course uh we know
03:52 anheiser Bush lost four share points of
03:54 volume um we we know we don't have to go
03:57 into the reasons why I think we all know
03:59 what happened and there with Bud Light
04:02 um and I'm looking here at volume share
04:04 and I'm looking at you know normally I
04:06 look at Dollar share but I feel like
04:09 year this year meaning last year we
04:12 should look at volume share because we
04:14 had such wacky price increases the
04:16 previous year that dollar share is a
04:20 misleading um constellation and Molson
04:22 Kors each gained about the same amount
04:25 of volume share um which kind of leads
04:28 me to believe that molon c benefited
04:30 more from the budlight debacle than
04:33 constellation did because constellation
04:35 was already running uh almost at this
04:38 level Mark Anthony BRS uh a Seltzer play
04:42 really held in there Boston beer also a
04:45 Selzer play didn't not so much heekin
04:47 and diio holding their own really uh
04:51 just matching the industry and then you
04:53 have uh Kieran lion which you know New
04:56 Belgium is just on fire uh unlike the
04:59 rest of the craft industry and we'll
05:01 have the CEO of New Belgium here to talk
05:03 more about that and if you want to say
05:05 that Kieran and paps buring Company are
05:08 cleaning up then Yingling is just
05:10 mopping the floor at twice the share
05:12 gains of the other two we also have the
05:14 pap CEO speaking so big year for most of
05:19 players and if you want to go down to
05:21 the Brand level and this is all
05:24 Channel um again Bello special almost
05:28 gained a point Bud Light three and then
05:31 multra is hanging in there the
05:32 interesting thing about multra is this a
05:36 little bit surprising Mich Ultra is
05:38 still the number one brand in
05:41 supermarkets number one and that leads
05:45 me to believe that Michel that Modello
05:47 espel still has a lot of room not in
05:50 grocery stores K light and Miller Light
05:53 uh both gaining significant share Corona
05:56 Extra still gaining share like that I'm
05:58 glad that we have Jim Sabia here to talk
06:01 tomorrow more about that the rest are
06:04 pretty much as you would expect them
06:06 hinin hanging in there and then of
06:08 course Twisted teach just and
06:11 Fuego uh up a tenth of a SharePoint but
06:15 also uh pricing is up
06:18 $1.72 which is the most of any of the
06:20 top 20 Brands so uh that's a good thing
06:25 when you raise prices and you increase
06:27 volume share to that level um um if you
06:30 look at segments no surprise domestic
06:33 premium uh lost a SharePoint that's
06:37 tells me that the what budlight lost we
06:40 didn't regain with all of it with other
06:42 brands Imports of course up
06:45 1.76 domestic sub premium not doing uh
06:49 still losing share which is surprising
06:51 nobody's trading down fmb's and Fuego
06:54 again up almost a SharePoint domestic
06:58 super premium that's MC Ultra uh and
07:01 then beer six Centric you know beer
07:04 seltzers lost a huge 1.21 SharePoint I
07:09 think that's important to remember
07:10 because we we talk about
07:12 2022 is the year that seltz are cred but
07:16 really there's a a lot of Hangover into
07:18 2023 with seltzers and I think that goes
07:21 a long way in explaining why the beer
07:23 industry sucked so bad last year and
07:26 then non-alcoholic on fire doing very
07:28 well and then I don't know what assort
07:30 it is but it's there so here's the
07:34 here's the money shot this is the big
07:36 slide right here supermarkets did not
07:39 Faire so well uh volume down
07:43 4.4% but look at convenience I mean this
07:46 is the channel That Really carried the
07:51 2023 and you can see that pricing is up
07:54 1.67 what does that tell
07:56 you singles this is a singles Market uh
08:01 singles are on fire and I think if uh if
08:05 you look at the reasons that people are
08:07 banding about of why the beer industry
08:09 volume was down so bad in
08:13 2023 you people are moving from multi
08:15 packs to singles that takes a hit on
08:18 volume but it doesn't affect Revenue as
08:20 much because singles are higher priced
08:24 so why was the beer you know shipments
08:27 are looking to be down between 4 and 5%
08:31 showing since prohibition I don't know
08:34 it's been I mean Dave you know you know
08:37 your dad says it's the worst thing I've
08:39 ever seen in all my you know and he's
08:40 older than I am and it's the worst I've
08:42 seen too so is it the economy well uh
08:45 the economy actually was surprisingly
08:47 good last year we thought it was going
08:48 to be bad but it it you know jobs
08:50 increased wages increased even more
08:53 Lester Jones has has said that that it's
08:56 Unique for the beer industry to be
08:57 counter cyclical to the economy meaning
09:01 the beer industry did terrible when the
09:03 economy is booming um so that is uh
09:07 weird now there's also if you read the
09:10 mainstream press everybody's talking
09:11 about how everybody's drinking less uh
09:14 but again as Lester said people
09:16 Americans have been drinking 2 and a
09:18 half gallons of ethanol on average year
09:20 after year after year for the past 15
09:23 years it went up a little in Co went
09:25 down a little after I don't there's no
09:27 reason to believe that that's anything
09:28 different last year the practi of the
09:30 matter is is that if you look on social
09:32 media yes dry January is a huge thing
09:36 but it looks like it's kind of a joke
09:37 this year like it doesn't seem like
09:39 anybody's abiding by it uh so I you know
09:43 the Press is is a little misleading I
09:45 think that now what about spirit rtds
09:47 for sure um we also uh have the leader
09:50 Brit of High Noon who's going to be
09:51 speaking in day after tomorrow because
09:55 this is a high noon story high noon and
09:57 Surfside are growing like crazy we also
09:59 have Clement Papa speaking yeah they're
10:02 taking share but we got to remember that
10:04 Spirit rtds are still a relatively small
10:07 category especially with volume when it
10:10 uh compared to the the beer industry and
10:12 it compared to malt-based seltzers and
10:14 so it is a little bit that but not a lot
10:17 that full strength Spirits no full
10:20 strength Spirits yes are still taking
10:22 share of ethanol but they had a tough
10:24 year too um and I think the spirits
10:27 companies have had a real challenge in
10:30 translating their full strength Spirit
10:34 brand names into an RTD canned package
10:39 those brands are all down Crown Royal
10:42 you know all of them it it hasn't uh
10:45 translated into RTD success with the
10:48 exception being Jack and Coke and we'll
10:51 see how that does cannabis cannabis is
10:54 just a mess right um cannabis reminds me
10:58 of the wine business it's agriculturally
11:02 finicky it's um uh there's no branding
11:06 and it presents itself terribly at
11:08 retail now we're talking about the legal
11:10 cannabis market and so that's a whole
11:12 mess we'll get into that because you
11:14 know Vivian AER who's speaking next with
11:16 me has pointed out that 2third of
11:20 drinkers or cannabis users are report
11:24 that they are drinking less so I
11:26 definitely think cannabis does have an
11:28 effect on the beer consumption um but I
11:31 don't think it's all the legal cannabis
11:34 there's just a huge elicit Market that's
11:36 booming so it's really hard to measure
11:39 and then there's the X Factor and I I
11:41 think I think we've kind of hited at
11:42 what that X Factor is there's a reason
11:45 the beer industry is down yes we do have
11:48 a category problem I will sit here and
11:50 admit that but we also had two huge
11:56 price increases in 2022 of course volume
11:59 is going to hit down again from Lester
12:02 if you go back to 2008 and index the CPI
12:06 at 100 wine CPI is now today at
12:14 sucks Spirit CPI is at 115 which also
12:18 sucks for them and then beer is at
12:23 143 this is the metric of why beer
12:26 volume is down I would submit above
12:29 anything else now regular CPI is also at
12:33 143 or 46 so beer has kept up with all
12:38 other inflation it's just that the wine
12:40 and spirits guys haven't and yes some of
12:43 that is because of different package
12:45 sizes and moving to rtds but beer you
12:48 know let's put it this way when an
12:50 elephant foot of titos is almost the
12:52 same price is a 30 rack of Bud Light
12:55 people are making that calculation and
13:04 summarize counter cyclical yes but I
13:08 would also submit for whom beer industry
13:12 index is more toward lower income people
13:14 we know this and I think while the
13:17 general economy did very well last year
13:20 that lower percentile of income earners
13:23 were still hit hard by inflation and I
13:26 think that that hits beer more than it
13:30 spirits and number two uh singles are
13:34 roaring in in Sea stores that's great
13:37 for profitability it's not great for
13:40 volume if you're just buying singles
13:41 you're not drinking a lot so suits 30
13:44 racks kegs all the big packages are
13:47 hurting and you know I think if you look
13:50 at the the shipments being down four and
13:53 5% don't ignore kegs I I think they've
13:57 there's a there's a dent in the on
13:58 premise that that hasn't come back
14:00 especially when you look at craft and
14:03 you know when when you're talking about
14:04 craft look we we'll have other people
14:07 talk more about it but I think the
14:08 bottom line is craft was starting to
14:11 hurt as we went into the pandemic and
14:15 just uh they just haven't recovered
14:17 since then to be honest um Seltzer
14:20 fatigue we still had a Seltzer hangover
14:23 in 2023 we must not forget that and you
14:27 know don't forget in 20 22 we crushed a
14:30 Seltzer and so it never got drunk um now
14:35 the ttb is supposed to account for that
14:37 uh when they release their shipment
14:39 numbers but I doubt that all of the
14:40 crush seltz are made it into those
14:42 numbers and so we're in 2023 recycled a
14:46 lot of sales that ended up in the drain
14:49 price elasticity versus Spirits rtds
14:53 Canabis uh I I think that probably is
14:56 the number one reason people have other
14:58 options options uh for getting turned
15:02 and there are cheaper ways to get
15:11 know honestly who cares if you look at
15:15 the iri numbers beer dollars are still
15:18 up 2.6% I realize that's only off
15:20 premise and that's only chains but hey
15:23 the beer industry still grew last year
15:25 at least in that channel and who knows
15:29 you know the ttb rap May revise numbers
15:31 there may be uh shifting going on that
15:35 uh inventory issues that went on we
15:37 don't know all of that yet but beer
15:40 dollars were were still up and I think
15:42 that's that's good news uh so that uh
15:46 thank you for enduring that short
15:48 presentation it uh your pain in mine is
15:52 soon to be over um that's me and my dog
15:56 biscuit we're looking into the future
15:58 for for a glorious and happy beer
16:00 industry I really do think that 2024 is
16:03 going to be a good year for beer not
16:05 just cuz it's cycling shitty numbers but
16:08 because the pricing will have all fixed
16:11 itself out we won't have that Seltzer
16:13 hangover and we just have blue skies
16:16 ahead and then the Bud Light shits
16:18 behind us so I think um 2024 is going to
16:20 be a good year so now I would like to
16:23 invite uh my analyst friends up on the
