00:00hello everyone the a6z podcast is back
00:03and this is your new host Seth Smith I'm
00:06so excited to explore the world of
00:07technology with you through the lens of
00:09the builders shaping it and if you've
00:11been listening to the Pod for a while I
00:13hope you'll stick with me as I take the
00:14reins from sonal who by the way is doing
00:16really wonderful work at our sister
00:17podcast web3 with a16c okay on to the
00:20content today we have a very special
00:22kickoff episode to start our launch
00:25Series where we wanted to explore the
00:26age-old question why is building the
00:29next generation of Technologies still so
00:31important and perhaps even more
00:33important who is going to build this
00:34next generation of technology and what
00:36needs to be done to enable those
00:38Founders and Builders and I'm a little
00:40biased but who better to Traverse this
00:41ground than a16c's co-founder and
00:43general partner Mark Andreessen someone
00:45who is not only Built but also invested
00:47in the future time and time again
00:49especially when it was not the obvious
00:50thing to do so today together with Mark
00:52we explore technology through the lens
00:54of History including the three stages of
00:56human psychology as we encounter these
00:58new technologies we also talk about how
01:00that process often ends in regulation
01:02and we include a couple examples of that
01:04which by the way if you've never heard
01:06of red flag laws you'll want to listen
01:07in we also talk about when to change
01:09your mind the Cambrian explosion of
01:11opportunity coming from distributed work
01:13the importance of founder-led companies
01:15and so much more and of course we'll end
01:17the episode by examining why there's
01:19still so much reason for optimism and
01:22hopefully this episode will also get you
01:23excited about what's to come with the
01:24a16c podcast as we do have a lot more
01:27coming that includes coverage of major
01:28trends like AI space carbon removal and
01:31you'll soon hear from Legends like Neil
01:33Stevenson ball of Jason New Boston and
01:35even Steve Wozniak who shared with us
01:37his latest Venture Privateer by the way
01:39that episode is already live in the feed
01:41if you want to give it a listen alright
01:43let's dive in the content here is for
01:46informational purposes only should not
01:48be taken as legal business tax or
01:50investment advice or be used to evaluate
01:52any investment or security and is not
01:54directed at any investors or potential
01:56investors in any a16z fund for more
01:58details BCA 16z.com disclosures
02:11so this is the first episode of our
02:13launch series and in the launch series
02:15we're going to cover several
02:16Technologies and we're going to cover
02:18them with their Founders and dive really
02:19deeply into how these Technologies May
02:21shape our Collective future but before
02:24we do that we're going to address an
02:25important question and it may sound
02:28but we need to ask why these
02:30Technologies even matter in the first
02:31place why is it so essential today that
02:33we continue to build and today we have
02:35Mark Andreessen talking to us about this
02:37very important topic and who better than
02:40someone who has built the future and
02:42invested in the future many times over
02:43especially when it wasn't the easy thing
02:46so Mark why don't we start there and why
02:48don't we start by attacking this
02:50question with the lens of History so how
02:53maybe do people view the importance of
02:55technology today and how has that
02:57changed maybe relative to how they
02:59viewed it in the past yeah so thanks so
03:01that's that's a great way to start and
03:03you know so many of the discussions
03:04about today's Technologies kind of take
03:06place in this you know kind of a
03:07historical frame where it's as if there
03:09had never been any new technologies in
03:11the past or that there were new
03:13technologies in the past but those were
03:14all the good ones and today we just have
03:15the bad ones or something like that and
03:17so the the the the key question to kind
03:20of started out asking on all these
03:24um it's basically like why is there
03:26something and not just nothing
03:28um but by which I mean basically like
03:30what was life like before technology
03:32right like what was life like in like
03:34its natural state before we had all
03:35these wonderful Technologies before we
03:36had steam power before we had you know
03:38tractors before we had telephones and so
03:40forth and and you know there's you know
03:41a lot of historians have talked about
03:42this but you know the answer is life was
03:45what was known at the time at you know
03:47Thomas Hobbs famously said it was nasty
03:49British and short right and so you'll
03:51you'll read these fantasies from time to
03:53time about how people kind of in you
03:54know older periods uh you know more
03:56historical periods like somehow they
03:57were living in the state of aggressive
03:58nature and kind of everything was
04:00wonderful and they were just kind of
04:01hanging out and having a good time and
04:02basically like that those are all just
04:05um you know in reality but basically
04:06everybody was miserable all the time
04:08everybody was poor everybody was
04:10assistance farming just to make enough
04:11you know be able to harvest enough food
04:13to be able to eat that day or to be able
04:15to hunt enough meat to be able to eat
04:16that day and for the most part people
04:17died young they died sick you know they
04:19never they never got anywhere they never
04:20did anything you know basically like all
04:22of recorded civilization is basically
04:25only over the course of the last four
04:26thousand years you know for the for the
04:28many millions of years of humanity
04:30before that like there's basically
04:31nothing and you know basically because
04:33like people had no time to do anything
04:34other than just try to grow enough food
04:37so basically it's like okay so basically
04:38it's like what happened to cause life no
04:40longer being Aster British and short you
04:42know what what happened to cause
04:43basically the reality of human existence
04:45to go from what it used to be to what it
04:47is today and you know it's not perfect
04:49today but it's a lot better than it was
04:50and of course the answer is technology
04:51and in fact technology is the only
04:53answer to that question right there
04:55there there's no other answer right it's
04:57not like people got smarter it's not
04:58like people got you know I don't know
05:00human human you know DNA is the same
05:02human beings haven't changed uh it's
05:04basically only through technology and
05:06things have gotten better and and you
05:07know the way to kind of think about that
05:09is what is technology technology is
05:11tools right technology basically is
05:13applied human Ingenuity uh in building
05:15tools and then and then those tools
05:17basically give human beings leverage up
05:21um you know that that leverage shows up
05:24um you know it it shows up in forms you
05:26know for sure in some cases that are
05:27that are bad it also shows up of course
05:30um in the form of many cases that are
05:31that are also are very good
05:33so I agree with you that progress
05:36continues and if you look at all the
05:38important markers we are doing better
05:40and that has been true for a very long
05:42time why is it then that people seem to
05:45have this view of where we are today in
05:48history in terms of things being so bad
05:51yeah so you know with that obviously
05:52that's a complicated question
05:54um the technology part of it I think is
05:56very clear though um which is you know
05:58and again you kind of think about this
05:59historically so so let's let's start
06:02with the story of like one of the very
06:03original technologies that basically a
06:05human beings kind of discovered and
06:06mastered which was fire quite quite
06:11um you know obviously today you take
06:12fire for granted you just assume it's
06:13something that's always been with us but
06:15like fire is a tool like fire as a
06:17technology was something that at some
06:18point you know kind of early human being
06:20said to figure out how to master and how
06:23um and just to give you a sense of like
06:24what a big deal it was to actually
06:26Master the technology of fire when that
06:28happened you know what one of the sort
06:30of you know kind of core fundamental
06:31kind of myths of of of human existences
06:33is the myth of Prometheus the god
06:37um and the god Prometheus famously is
06:39the you know the way the myth goes you
06:41know Prometheus delivered fire to
06:42humanity basically delivered fire as a
06:44tool uh uh to humanity and and and for
06:47me this was not it's not was not beloved
06:50as a consequence of of delivering fire
06:51to people but Prometheus was was
06:53condemned specifically he was in the
06:56myth he was chained to a rock
06:58um uh and uh for and for all eternity um
07:01and uh according to math every day a
07:03bird comes along and picks out his liver
07:06um very painfully and then he according
07:08to Matthew were generous every night and
07:10then the next day the bird tortures them
07:11again and you know this has been
07:12happening forever so so like the fact
07:14that there's that myth with that outcome
07:16assigned to the introduction of fire as
07:18a technology to human existence right
07:20and and of course the myth is not what
07:22assumes that it's not literally true but
07:24it's symbolic right which is basically a
07:26symbolic of the fact that Humanity
07:27basically experienced the rise of fire
07:28and technology and said like wow this
07:31was a big deal and maybe not entirely
07:33positive and then and then of course
07:35that makes sense because if you think
07:36about how fire was used as a technology
07:37obviously fire was used for good right
07:39which is like fire made it possible to
07:41cook meat right fire made it possible to
07:43um you know to basically like you know
07:45defend the campsite against like you
07:47know wolves in the middle of the night
07:48it made it possible to keep people warm
07:49you can keep your baby from freezing to
07:50death like you know fires this like
07:54of course fire also got used in Warfare
07:56right um and you know even up to the
07:58modern day like you know what's the you
07:59know kind of state-of-the-art weapon of
08:01our times it's the nuclear bomb of
08:02course what what does that bring it
08:05um and so you know look it is a
08:07double-edged sword like would we want to
08:09live in the modern world without fire
08:12um because it has you know both the
08:13downsides as well the upsides we
08:15wouldn't but like both of those are
08:17present and basically my interpretation
08:19and if you kind of go through the
08:20history of new technologies basically
08:21for every important new technology
08:23there's always this argument basically
08:24there's always this argument of like
08:25okay in theory there are all these
08:27things we can do with a good technology
08:28that are very positive in fact probably
08:30there are things the new technology will
08:32make possible that we can't even think
08:33of today right and that's been a very
08:35common pattern by the way which is
08:36people don't people actually have a very
08:37hard time anticipating the upside for
08:39new technologies uh but the same
08:41argument basically always applies is
08:42with fire which is basically like well
08:43what about the potential downsides and
08:45then you know say human beings are kind
08:47of psychologically wired to the downside
08:49like we're you know we're we're wired to
08:51basically detect and try to try to evade
08:53um right and so there's basically always
08:56the simplest to say okay that you know
08:57this is the technology that's going to
09:00um and if you go through basically the
09:01history of every new technology like
09:03that you know that argument applied
09:04repeatedly give you a couple examples so
09:06one is uh outdoor lighting uh so
09:08electric lighting right electric
09:09lighting actually was first implemented
09:10Outdoors because they didn't know how to
09:12do it indoors because it kept burning
09:14kept burning places down um it took a
09:16while to get it to get it to be safe but
09:18uh the first electric lighting was
09:19rolled out in you know big cities in
09:21Paris and London you know something I
09:22forget what it was like something like
09:25um and you know big deal like outdoor
09:27lighting all of a sudden the city is
09:29walkable and livable and safer right
09:30after dark like you know this this this
09:32is a pretty big deal and the
09:33Contemporary accounts are basically I
09:35mean one was the sense of wonderment
09:37that this was now you know basically the
09:38the life could now be basically lit 24
09:40hours but then there were also all of
09:42these you know kind of you know stories
09:44of like this is going to like completely
09:45destroy civilization this is against the
09:47natural order of things you know this is
09:48going to completely you know people
09:49aren't going to be able to sleep anymore
09:50you know all kinds of things all kinds
09:52of illicit you know social activities
09:53are going to happen at night right in
09:56the past everybody just had to go to bed
09:57at night now they're going to be out on
09:58the streets at three in the morning
09:59doing all kinds of bad things by the way
10:02there are you know in every major city
10:04there are criminals out on the street at
10:05three in the morning doing bad things
10:06like you know it's not like the downside
10:09was was was completely wrong it's just
10:10that obviously the the trade-off was
10:13um you know my favorite story on this is
10:15the invention of the bicycle
10:16um and this one is really is really
10:18great because you know there's this
10:19there's this Netflix documentary called
10:21the social dilemma that's kind of you
10:22know condemns you know kind of social
10:23media is this kind of unique threat to
10:25civilization and one of the things that
10:26one of the guys in that movie says is
10:28he's like you know social media is the
10:29first you know technology like this
10:31that's had these negative consequences
10:32it's like nobody nobody ever complained
10:34about the invention of the bicycle and
10:36it actually turns out that's not true he
10:39just he just didn't do enough reading
10:40like it turns out people actually
10:41complained a lot about the invention of
10:44um and and this story I think it is sort
10:46of very symbolic so the so the bicycle
10:48is a big deal so the bicycle rolled out
10:50as a consumer product about 150 years
10:51ago uh you know they kind of got it
10:53working and manufactured to the point
10:54where it got cheap enough for where kind
10:56of normal people could buy it and so the
10:57the bicycle starts to roll out kind of
10:59across the American Countryside and
11:01basically there's this immediate moral
11:02Panic about to bicycle and this is
11:04chronicled in the in the media at the
11:06time if you read the Twitter account
11:09um it's uh which maybe we can link to he
11:11he goes back and reconstructs kind of
11:13the the moral Panic around the bicycle
11:15and basically the argument against the
11:16bicycle at the time was the bicycle is
11:18the first transportation technology that
11:20young unmarried women in towns and
11:22Villages across the U.S could actually
11:24afford to be able to buy and use right
11:26because cars didn't exist yet like you
11:28know whatever horses and wagons are too
11:29expensive they couldn't get access to
11:30them whatever uh you know walking took
11:33um all of a sudden but all of a sudden
11:35like I'm young I'm married to have the
11:36bicycle which means young unmarried
11:38women can go from like one town to the
11:40which means all of a sudden young
11:42unmarried women can meet you know boys
11:44and men not just in the current time but
11:48um and so obviously to the kind of
11:49established social order of the time
11:51like this which was was a profound
11:53threat right to kind of how things
11:54worked the Assumption was you're a young
11:55a married woman in town you marry one of
11:57the men right in that town all of a
11:59sudden your your world opens up and so
12:01the media at the time uh at that time
12:04created completely like had a whole
12:06cloth they created a new medical
12:07condition called bicycle face
12:10um and the idea bicycle face was your
12:12young woman you're on the bicycle you're
12:13peddling to get to the next town and you
12:15know pedaling takes exertion and so
12:17you're going to have like your face is
12:18going to contort you know because of the
12:19exertion and you're going to be like you
12:20know pedaling along like this and
12:22bicycle face was the idea that your face
12:24was going to freeze into that contorted
12:27um and then you know then then you would
12:29never be able to get married right
12:31um now fortunately it turned out bicycle
12:33face was not actually a real thing it
12:35turned out civilization survived the
12:36introduction of the bicycle uh but
12:38basically like there's just this there's
12:40this constant blowback right and then
12:42basically what you find and we'll we'll
12:44probably talk about this in some ways
12:45but basically what you find is the
12:47blowback is nominally a response to the
12:49dangers of the technology with the
12:52blowback actually is in in almost every
12:54case that the blowback actually is it's
12:56basically a a fear a statement an
12:59assertion a realization
13:01um that the introduction of the new
13:02technology is going to change the
13:04society right and and then in particular
13:06status and power within the society
13:09right who's in charge who's in power who
13:11makes decisions who has status who gets
13:14money right all of a sudden the
13:15orderings of society is up for grabs and
13:17that and that's why you get this just
13:18like you know spectacular freak out when
13:20these things show up yeah I'm glad you
13:21brought up pessimist archive because if
13:23people are curious we'll bring it up on
13:24the screen but basically anything that
13:26you you can think of as a prior
13:28technology or maybe even things that you
13:29take for granted as not Technologies
13:31just things embedded in our lives had
13:33this blowback you mentioned the bicycle
13:34but it's also the radio trains teddy
13:37bears jazz music I don't know if people
13:38would view teddy bears as technology but
13:40the point is anything that becomes
13:42embedded in society that as you're
13:44alluding to can impact Society at scale
13:48people start to get afraid of because
13:50they start going through all these
13:51scenarios and thinking oh who is this
13:53going to impact is this going to impact
13:54my job is this going to impact the types
13:55of people I can interact with it's going
13:57to impact the power I have in society so
13:59Mark why don't we dive into that how do
14:01you see technology and its
14:03implementation or really as it's
14:04starting to be implemented within
14:06Society how do people react and what
14:09what specifically about the power within
14:11Society is being upended
14:13yeah so there's this incredible book
14:15it's it's very short very good it's
14:17actually written 50 years ago by a
14:19professor at MIT at the time
14:22um and um it's the name Elton Morrison
14:24and and what's great about this book is
14:25it was written before the internet even
14:27before personal computers and so it's
14:28kind of it's got this kind of Timeless
14:29you know kind of quality to it and it's
14:31it's the title of the book is called men
14:33machines in modern times it's this topic
14:35it's basically okay what what exactly is
14:37the process by which a new technology
14:38enters society and then how does society
14:40react basically how does how does this
14:41sort of the powers that be or the status
14:43quo of society react
14:45um and Morrison tells this amazing story
14:47he kind of hangs the whole thing on this
14:48sort of very amazing story from about
14:50100 120 years ago now maybe 130 years
14:54um around this guy named Sims and this
14:56guy named Sims at the time
14:58um worked in the area of Naval Warfare
15:00right so you know big big big you know
15:02battleships seafaring battleships uh you
15:04know firing on each other you know
15:06firing on on um you know on each other
15:07firing on on land targets and so forth
15:09and of course you know the the world 120
15:11hundred years 130 years ago you know we
15:13didn't really have have airplanes you
15:14know sort of military airplanes he added
15:16so you know sea Warfare Naval Warfare
15:18was Warfare like it was how invasions
15:19happened and it was you know and and how
15:21countries got defended so this was you
15:23know kind of the core kind of aspect of
15:25military technology at the time
15:27um and so since basically worked on
15:29basically guns like big big guns on on
15:31big military ships um and then in
15:33particular how do you aim big guns on
15:36um and the way The Story Goes is
15:38basically before Sims guns were fixed in
15:40position on a ship right so you'd have a
15:42big ship you have you know you've all
15:44seen this in movies you'd have the gun
15:45sticking out the side of the ship and
15:47then basically what would happen is and
15:48the gun is in like a fixed position
15:50right because it's you know lash of the
15:51deck so it doesn't roll around
15:53um and so what happens is you know the
15:54sea is moving right and so the the ship
15:56is kind of going back and forth like
15:58this in the water which means the gun is
16:00going back and forth like this which
16:02means that basically enable battles up
16:04until Sims you know thus the accuracy
16:07rate of of guns being fired off these
16:09ships was like at best 10
16:11um and you know maybe you know quite
16:12often below that which is you know they
16:14would just miss most of the time and why
16:15did they miss most of the time because
16:17the Gunner would be like you know the
16:18Gunnery officer would get a get a fix on
16:20on the position and he would go to order
16:22to fire but by that point right the
16:24ocean had moved the ship had moved and
16:25then he no longer had a lock and then
16:26the thing would fire on the Cannonball
16:28would miss the other ship
16:30um and so you know a lot of Naval
16:31battles up until that point where these
16:32ships kind of sitting side by side
16:34firing at each other and missing all the
16:36right and so sim said well you know gee
16:38like there has to be a better way to do
16:40this and basically what he designed was
16:41a mechanical mechanism that
16:43automatically basically worked in
16:45opposition right counterbalance uh to
16:47the role of the ship and so if if the if
16:49the ship is you know if the ship
16:50basically is going down right the the
16:52mechanism for the gun would
16:54automatically correct and so the Gunnery
16:56officer could basically get a fix and
16:57then as long as the ship stayed in the
16:59same position as it rolled around you
17:01know the the the the the the the lock
17:03you know the sort of lock on the target
17:04would stay intact then all of a sudden
17:05the accuracy rate you know shoots up for
17:06like 90 right and so and so what's so
17:09great about this this example is it's
17:11like the most obvious thing in the world
17:13which is it's like obviously every
17:14country in the world would instantly
17:15adopt this every military would adopt
17:17this every ship would instantly be
17:18retrofitted to do this right this is
17:20like the most obvious slam dunk thing
17:22you could do it's a huge advance in
17:23Warfare you couldn't imagine living
17:25without it like that's what you would
17:26assume and of course that's not what
17:29um what happened basically was Sims took
17:31it took seems like a full 25 years to
17:33basically convince the American and
17:34British navies to adopt this technology
17:35it was was like a full generational
17:37shift and the book goes through kind of
17:39in detail kind of you know basically
17:40what happened he the stereo Sims
17:42ultimately had to actually appeal
17:44directly to president Teddy Roosevelt at
17:45the time that like the entire military
17:47command structure of that era basically
17:48just told him to basically half off
17:51um you know we don't want your
17:52newfangled thing you know we're going to
17:54keep doing things the old way and he
17:55ultimately appealed to Teddy Roosevelt
17:56and Roosevelt actually ordered the Navy
17:58to look at it and then they you know
17:59they later ended up adopting it
18:01um and so Morrison basically says well
18:03okay what you know like it's like the
18:04ultimate example like if they wouldn't
18:06adopt even that technology like okay
18:08this this must be like some very Primal
18:10kind of counter Force that's happening
18:12and and this was you know and his thesis
18:13was it basically uh is the following
18:15which is every new technology is a
18:17reordering of of the power and the
18:19status in society and then specifically
18:22in the form of this gun right it was
18:24basically like the entire training
18:26basically methods all of the officer
18:28promotion methods like the entire social
18:30hierarchy of Mabel vessels and how
18:33Gunnery officers were trained and how
18:35guns were you know built and
18:36manufactured and crewed and managed and
18:38how military Doctrine worked right and
18:41all the different things about how you
18:42make decisions you know about this like
18:44it was all based on the old model and
18:46and and and basically like that skill
18:47set became obsolete when this gun came
18:49out and so those people became obsolete
18:51or at least they worried they'd become
18:52obsolete this new breed of kind of you
18:55know more advanced Innovative
18:56engineering you know kind of mentality
18:57came in and and and and was a profound
19:00threat and by the way that's what
19:01happened which is you had like a general
19:02you ultimately had a generational
19:03turnover of of of of all of the staff
19:06and officers involved in the naval
19:08um and so Morrison basically derives he
19:11goes through this example then he
19:12derives basically this three-part
19:13process that he says applies to any new
19:15technology basically as it is as it is
19:18greeted and fought by the status quo by
19:21the powers that be and he says basically
19:22it's a three-step process so step one is
19:24just to completely ignore it like so
19:27just pretend it doesn't exist refuse to
19:29acknowledge it don't talk about it don't
19:31even engage in conversations like we're
19:32just not going to do this
19:34um at some point though it just you know
19:36at some point you know these things
19:37become too obvious and they have to
19:38engage he said step two is rational
19:40counter argument right so and rational
19:43counter argument is you know this can't
19:44possibly work because you know it's
19:46going to be too expensive it's not going
19:48to be fast enough it's not going to
19:49scale people don't know how to use it
19:50right all the different kind of rational
19:52arguments that you can come up with to
19:54to post something and then ultimately
19:56you know when those don't work anymore
19:58because people you know people are still
20:00watching this and being like okay it
20:01still seems like a good idea then he
20:03says stage three says stage three is
20:05when the name calling begins right and
20:07so stage three is basically just like a
20:09full out power status political fight uh
20:12where all of a sudden basically it's
20:13like okay these are you know these
20:14people who are bringing this to
20:15technology they're bad people they have
20:17bad morals they have bad intent they're
20:19going to ruin everything uh right and if
20:21you think about it it's so funny because
20:22it's like basically the internet
20:23followed this exact trajectory like you
20:26know crypto cryptocurrency blockchain
20:28web 3 is following this exact same
20:30trajectory social networking followed
20:31this exact same trajectory like I've now
20:33seen this pattern you know out of 50
20:35times in the you know in in the last 30
20:37years and it keeps playing out the same
20:39way nobody learns anything right and it
20:43is this is literally what happens with
20:45every new technology and I I become
20:46convinced that's basically how how this
20:48unfolds yeah I think something that
20:50reminded me of is something biology said
20:52recently which she was reflecting on
20:54people's response to Social and how its
20:56impacted Society over time and he he
20:58noted that maybe 10 or 20 years ago
21:00social was seen as like these silly apps
21:03being created and like who wants to
21:04focus on this and you know why are we
21:06directing smart attention into these
21:07types of fields and then now he's saying
21:10or noting that people are framing it as
21:12a threat to democracy so it's kind of
21:14interesting that people go from one
21:16angle or one perception and then because
21:19technology in particular tends to be
21:21this Force that's very very hard to stop
21:22it then turns into something much
21:25different and the same people who framed
21:27it as a silly app are now framing it as
21:28a threat to democracy and to your point
21:30this isn't new right we had the same
21:32kind of Dynamics happening with the
21:34bicycle or actually I think it would
21:36actually be fun for us to go into these
21:38red flag laws that you told me about
21:39quickly and we'll return to to the
21:41framing that that you brought up but
21:43could you speak a little bit more to the
21:46red flag laws that were implemented when
21:47cars were coming to be yeah and I'd like
21:50to I'd like to come back to biology's
21:51thing on social by the way because I'll
21:52I'll interpret it a little bit
21:54differently I'll put it into this the
21:55the The Sims framework but um but yeah
21:57so cars so this is another great one so
21:59like cars it's like okay like we all
22:01live with cars we all can't live without
22:03cars like you know there's still huge
22:04fights about how you know cars should be
22:06used in our society but like there's
22:07cars everywhere like our society doesn't
22:09function about cars and we just kind of
22:10take them totally for granted uh by the
22:12way we take them so for granted that we
22:14just like repeatedly bail out the big
22:15car companies right like at this point
22:18like the taxpayers have kept them in
22:19business for a long time
22:21um and so you know the car and so and
22:23then you're you're just like you know
22:24it's just like okay the car must have
22:26been this obvious thing like of course
22:27you want the car you know who you know
22:29who could who could have fought the car
22:30at least for any kind of you know kind
22:31of valid reason and so again to your
22:33point like it turns out actually the
22:34cars where we were actually a profound
22:37threat to the sort of social order of
22:39that time uh of the ERA this is like
22:41going back 120 years
22:43um and uh and it was basically this
22:45exact same kind of process played out
22:47with the car um and so the the the the
22:49thing you mentioned basically the thing
22:51that happened at the peak of kind of the
22:52anti-car history at the time uh the
22:55moral Panic around cars was basically
22:56it's basically what happened was cars
22:58were a threat to basically they were the
23:00threat to like the ordering of like
23:01everything from how cities were laid out
23:03they were you know a threat to you know
23:04they were going to upend you know the
23:05ability to have like modern
23:06Transportation modern shipping you know
23:09they were gonna upend everything from
23:10the world of local Merchants uh they
23:12were gonna upand you know there was an
23:13entire industry of blacksmiths you know
23:15that you know the horse was like Central
23:17to a lot of economies a lot of people
23:18made made their living off of you know
23:20dealing with you know dealing with
23:22um you know there were people who were
23:24like trained you know Carriage drivers
23:25who all of a sudden were out of jobs and
23:26so there there was this like all of a
23:28sudden this huge backlash and so what
23:29happened was uh a bunch of sort of State
23:32Municipal level uh areas uh you know
23:35both in the US like it you know in and
23:37around Pennsylvania at the time and then
23:40um uh implemented their their
23:42legislators implemented at the time what
23:43became known as the red flag laws
23:46um so the red flag law looks works as
23:49um which is okay Mr car owner you've got
23:52your fancy new car congratulations
23:54um you know you're you're very proud of
23:56yourself you're probably you know you
23:57know you're probably a pretty uh you
23:59know well-off person uh in the community
24:00people probably generally are probably
24:02jealously to start with you've got this
24:03fancy new automobile
24:05um and and by the way in those days like
24:07cars broke down all the time and so you
24:08know when you would take your car out
24:09for a ride you'd have like you'd be
24:11driving the car um and then you'd you'd
24:13often like bring a mechanic with you
24:15um right to basically fix the car when
24:17it broke they were still getting
24:20um and so you and your mechanic or
24:21whatever your family you'd be out you
24:23know motoring along in your car on
24:24whatever dirt road you know dirt road at
24:25the time um and the law was that you had
24:28to employ another guy you had to employ
24:31um to walk you know 50 feet in front of
24:34the car uh carrying big red flags
24:38okay so picture this you're driving
24:40along you're out for a nice Sunday Drive
24:41you've got your kids whatever you got
24:42your mechanic you're you're going along
24:44it you know cars in those days didn't go
24:46very fast but they did go faster than
24:48you could walk and so you're driving
24:49along at whatever 10 20 miles an hour
24:50but according to the lot you have to
24:52have a guy in front of you on foot like
24:55out in advance and he's got these like
24:57big red flags and you have to follow
24:59this guy because he has to stay in front
25:00of you and so you can only motor along
25:02at whatever the three four miles an hour
25:03you know that this guy can walk and this
25:05guy's like waving the red flags why is
25:06this guy waving the red flags to warn
25:08everybody that a car is coming right
25:11um why why was the explanation that he
25:14needs to warn you know people that a car
25:15is coming well because the car might
25:17scare the horses right so like you know
25:20if the car comes along it's making noise
25:22it scares the horses you know the horses
25:24you know whatever you know that most of
25:25us on the road at that time you know
25:27they freak out or you know but
25:28bystanders freak out people get hurt
25:29like this would be really bad
25:31um and so so literally it's like okay
25:33that was how the car got rolled out the
25:35the most advanced form of this law that
25:36I've been able to find
25:37um went a step further uh it said
25:40basically if you're driving along and
25:42you actually see a horse coming at you
25:44you see somebody on a horse coming out
25:46the other direction you have to pull
25:48over to the side of the road you have to
25:50disassemble the car you have to take it
25:53right you and your mechanic would take
25:55the car apart and you have to hide the
25:57parts of the car so that the horse can't
25:59right because the horse might get scared
26:01right get scared by the appearance of
26:02the car and then when the horse goes by
26:04you can then reassemble your car right
26:06and keep going right and of course you
26:08look back today you're just like okay
26:09this is like incredibly comical like how
26:11could they ever do this and then of
26:12course you exactly your point like
26:13social networking you think of exactly
26:14the technology so then you're like oh
26:15yeah you know they're putting in place
26:17laws that you know 100 years from now
26:18you know the laws that are being put in
26:20place now on a lot of modern technology
26:21topics are going to look just as
26:22silliest thread flag laws but
26:24since nobody ever learns anything you
26:26know history well yesterday we'll repeat
26:28Let me just hit real quick the biology
26:30point on social networking so this is a
26:31really interesting one because he
26:32described the overall Arc or you
26:34describe him as saying the overall Arc
26:36was from this harmless you know cat you
26:37know who cares what your cat had for
26:38breakfast kind of these are silly
26:39trivial things too like this you know
26:41this is like the fundamental threat to
26:43it was actually a three-step process
26:45right it was it was step one was ignore
26:47right step two in the case of social
26:49networking actually we went through the
26:51whole argument but there was this other
26:52stuff maybe call it step two and a half
26:53which basically is like this is the best
26:55thing ever for democracy right and you
26:57may remember around about 10 years ago
26:59around 2012 basically two things
27:01happened one was Obama got reelected and
27:03the Press went like and this was like at
27:05the time this was like referred to as
27:06like the first Facebook election it was
27:08when Facebook kind of had gone really
27:10um and so like there were amazing covers
27:12newspaper stories talking about
27:13literally the story was Facebook saves
27:15democracy right and it was literally
27:17Facebook saves democracy Big Data saves
27:19democracy all of a sudden like you know
27:21politicians thinking about their
27:22messages their voters you know the
27:23correct Canada doesn't get elected you
27:25know this is like the most wonderful
27:26thing for democracy ever
27:27by the way that was also during the Arab
27:29Spring right and social networking of
27:31course got a lot of credit for the the
27:32revolution you know the the at the time
27:34the Democratic revolutions that the uh
27:35you know of the of the Arab Spring and
27:37so there was this like overwhelming
27:38sensation like when social networking
27:40Executives you know in 10 years ago
27:42would go to Washington or Davos or Aspen
27:44or any of these places with fancy people
27:45you know with important titles like they
27:47just hit lavish with praise about how
27:48wonderful this new technology is for
27:51debolges between 10 years later in the
27:53story has done a complete 180 right now
27:55it's the absolute worst fundamental
27:57possible threat you could have to
27:58democracy because of course it turns out
28:00not just one side can win elections it
28:02turns out the other side can too
28:04um and it turns out the other side also
28:06uses you know uses uses social
28:07networking and runs ads on social
28:08networking and and to your point
28:10basically what's happened is if you
28:12track the people involved the exact same
28:13people have held every single position
28:16right so the exact same experts perfect
28:19you know professors you know pundits
28:22commentators analysts Think Tank People
28:24magazine Publishers political activists
28:27they exact same people have held every
28:29single one of these viewpoints all the
28:31way through this with no attempt at any
28:33point to reconcile their private their
28:35previous points of view and so you know
28:36LT Morrison I think is no longer with us
28:38but he is smiling down from heaven
28:39saying yep that's exactly what I
28:41predicted would happen
28:42yeah I mean it is fascinating to look at
28:46history because you can see these things
28:47repeating and I think this three-step
28:49process is something that people should
28:50you know apply to Technologies of today
28:52and ask like where is that technology or
28:55the way that people are are reacting to
28:57this technology where are we in that
28:59cycle and then I think another
29:00fascinating thing for people to spend
29:02time with is this idea of the way that
29:05we view red flag laws today what will we
29:07view or what will people view in 100
29:09years the same way right like what are
29:11the laws that we're applying to social
29:12or AI or robotics or space that
29:15regulation has its importance but what
29:18laws are we influencing today that will
29:20seem just as outlandish as someone
29:22literally walking in front of a car to
29:24make sure that we don't scare horses so
29:26I would encourage people to think about
29:27that but Mark I want to ask you because
29:29you have had a track record of being
29:31early in right and that's a combination
29:34that not many people can say about
29:36themselves and I think it's important
29:38again taking this framing of people
29:40throughout history being scared always
29:42looking at things from this pessimistic
29:44how have you been able to kind of see
29:46through that noise like what are you
29:48paying attention to when you are
29:49introduced to new technology it's really
29:51really easy to say well these are all
29:53the ways that this technology can go
29:54wrong it's not that easy to say oh I see
29:57this light of how this could go right so
29:59how have you been able to mold that more
30:02optimistic lens on technology and how
30:05have you also maintained that over time
30:07because I think that's an equally hard
30:10yeah yeah so um start by saying like I
30:13have the same instincts as everybody
30:14else right so when I when I read The
30:16Sims book I was like yep that's also
30:19um so I have the same you know same
30:20Instinct it's like somebody brings you
30:21know something forward and by the way
30:22like right new technologies in the early
30:24stages like they're really Half Baked
30:25you know there's sort of this concept
30:27that the same telep talks about about
30:28tinkering you know it's usually somebody
30:30in a garage or a metaphorical garage a
30:32dorm room or something or a computer lab
30:33somewhere who's basically working on
30:34something it doesn't quite work you know
30:37you you have to like really squint and
30:38see why this would ever be something
30:39that a normal person could could ever
30:40even understand much less use much less
30:44um and so you know especially if you're
30:45early you know if you're doing like
30:46early stage investing like we are really
30:48kind of early adopting a new
30:49technologies like you do see these
30:50things when they're early and they're
30:51just not they're just not ready yet and
30:53so you have to you basically the natural
30:55impulse is very clear which is the the
30:56the step one of the Sim cycle which is
30:58basically just ignore so I had the same
31:00instincts as everybody else I think
31:01basically what happened to me
31:03um is basically this kind of this this
31:05whole cycle kind of got beaten into me
31:07um which is basically like a very large
31:10number of times over the last you know
31:1230 years now when I have had that
31:14reaction and that it turns out that
31:16whatever the new technology was turns
31:18out to be a really big deal
31:19um you know it's like if you go through
31:21that Loop enough times like at some
31:23point I don't know it's like the tenth
31:25time or the 15th time or something like
31:27at some point you're just like okay like
31:29I need to stop you know at some point
31:31you realize that basically the cycle is
31:33a form of self-harm like if you want to
31:35be in the Leading Edge of new technology
31:36you basically have to break out of this
31:38cycle you have to basically stop holding
31:39yourself back now there's a couple of
31:42nuances to that right so one is you do
31:44have to squint like you do have to look
31:46at a new unformed thing right then that
31:49and this goes to the step two of the Sim
31:51Sim cycle but basically like rationally
31:53like has all these problems right and
31:55you know and again these problems
31:56usually in our era these problems are
31:58like it's too slow it doesn't scale it's
32:00too expensive you know whatever is too
32:03um you know it doesn't whatever work
32:04with existing systems like whatever it
32:06um uh you know no you know it's or it's
32:08like a network effect thing but nobody's
32:10using it yet so it's got the cold start
32:11problem and so you've got this like list
32:13of reasons why these new things can't
32:15work and you basically have to be
32:16willing to squint and kind of look
32:17through that and say okay you know
32:19basically like you know like what if
32:21those things all get fixed right and
32:23basically right the way that the tech
32:25industry works is is very helpful in
32:27this if you spend right a lot of time
32:28with Engineers what you notice basically
32:29is that list of kind of rational reasons
32:32why something can't work that list is
32:33also the same list of all of the
32:35technology and business opportunities
32:37with that technology right so I always
32:39call that it's the punch list of all the
32:41things for Founders to do
32:43um so how did you get an example crypto
32:44web 3 has been going through this for
32:45the last 10 years right which is you
32:47know crypto web 3 Bitcoin was was
32:48greeted early on ethereum was created
32:50early on as like this can't possibly
32:52work all these different reasons and
32:53basically you know incredible engineers
32:56and entrepreneurs in the crypto web 3
32:58space now are basically fixing all of
32:59those things by the way today is
33:01actually a great day to bring that up
33:02right because today's the day the the
33:04sort of ethereum merged what they call
33:06the merges took place and so ethereum
33:07actually just today switched from the
33:09old method of proof of work to the new
33:11method of proof of stake right one of
33:13the old arguments against crypto right
33:14including ethereum was basically the
33:16proof of Work Burns all this energy like
33:19um proof of stake doesn't have that
33:20problem and so like quite literally the
33:22ethereum developer Community has
33:23basically taken one of those rational
33:24objections like completely off the table
33:26and that's just like a great example of
33:28how these things actually you know
33:29actually actually do come to work but
33:32here's the other thing and this is also
33:33an important one like you're not always
33:37this way just because every successful
33:40new technology is greeted initially as a
33:42joke right does not mean that every new
33:45technology that's created as a joke is
33:47going to be successful right
33:49yeah and so you're not always right like
33:52sometimes you bet on an early yeah we do
33:54this all the time right in Venture
33:55Capital you bet on an early stage
33:56technology and it actually doesn't work
33:58it actually it actually doesn't happen
34:00it doesn't take it doesn't become real
34:01right I'm not even talking about like
34:03I'm even talking about fraud I'm just
34:05talking about like we thought we had the
34:06idea we thought we had the you know the
34:08sort of you know we've had the right
34:09people working on it you know it just
34:10they just couldn't get the thing to work
34:12or they just couldn't get the thing to
34:13work at the price point that the market
34:14needed or by the way a lot of the times
34:16it's just it was 10 or 20 or 30 years
34:18too early right so virtual reality is a
34:20good example of this like I remember
34:21when there was the first VR wave I
34:23actually worked on a a bit when I was in
34:24college in the in the late 80s like
34:26there was this big thing around virtual
34:28reality at the time and it just turned
34:29out that like you just could build VR
34:31headsets that worked properly 25 years
34:32ago 30 years ago that the technology
34:34wasn't ready yet and and of course you
34:37um and so a lot of times it's just being
34:39early but of course being being 30 years
34:40early it's the same as being wrong like
34:42it you know it doesn't help you anyone
34:43everything you're working on fails and
34:44then you have to you have to wait 30
34:47um and so you have to be willing you
34:49know if you're going to kind of think in
34:50these terms you have to be willing to be
34:51open to the idea that you're only going
34:52to be right part of the time
34:54right and so and you have to be you have
34:56to be willing to take the chances anyway
34:57you bet you basically and this is kind
34:59of the way I think about it is the
35:00answer to every new the way I think
35:03about it like for our firm is for every
35:05new technology that we're exposed to
35:07right it's like okay does it pass like
35:09the basic sniff test of like okay if
35:10this worked would it be a big deal right
35:12and then it's like are there really
35:13smart people working on getting it to
35:15work and it basically if it passes those
35:17two sniff tests then we should probably
35:19be betting on it today because we will
35:22be wrong some of the time right but we
35:24will also be right early some of the
35:26time and then you know the way Venture
35:27Capital Works startups work is you at
35:29least in theory make more money off the
35:31winners than you than you lose on the
35:32things that don't work
35:34um so so you have to kind of be willing
35:35to kind of tilt into the risk
35:37by the way some people shouldn't do this
35:39right like you know there are people for
35:41whom you know ever being exposed to
35:43failure is just like too psychologically
35:44damaging to them or there's like large
35:46companies you know that maybe shouldn't
35:47necessarily completely re-invent their
35:49entire business on the basis of a new
35:51unproven startup technology or something
35:52but like you know so so this is like a
35:55time and place thing for some people and
35:56not for other people but for those of us
35:57who want to be on the Leading Edge of
35:58new technologies we have to be very
36:00open-minded it's also a function of
36:02venture capital right the business or
36:04the industry that you're in naturally
36:06requires some level of risk so that you
36:08get the reward at the end of the table
36:10but on that note of timing I wanted to
36:14ask you about this because of course
36:16there are examples of specific companies
36:18like I'll just use a simple one segue
36:19Segway didn't work out a bunch of people
36:21thought it would okay so that was truly
36:23something that you know we probably
36:24won't see in the future but when we're
36:26talking about larger Industries you use
36:30are there really examples of
36:32technologies that a bunch of extremely
36:35talented people are working on again
36:36really foundational Technologies whether
36:38it's AI or crypto insert other
36:40foundational technology here that
36:43eventually doesn't work out and I'm
36:45asking you this because actually several
36:47of us on the editorial team were trying
36:49to think of an example and as someone
36:50who has been investing in technology for
36:52so long I was wondering if there has
36:55been a case where so many people have
36:57been wrong well the big probably famous
37:01um which is uh it's a l c h e m y so
37:06Alchemy was the technology to transmit
37:10um and uh there was this concept that
37:11you'd be able to you'd be able to build
37:13some form of machine or discover some
37:14material that they actually and this is
37:16like you know 300 years ago now uh they
37:18actually have this tournament called the
37:19Philosopher's Stone and there was and
37:20basically all these smart people trying
37:21to figure out how to basically Adventure
37:23discover the Philosopher's Stone by the
37:24way talk about smart people Isaac Newton
37:26spent 20 years trying to figure this out
37:28right so like maybe the smartest human
37:31being in history of the planet spent 20
37:34um so at the time you know they were
37:37and and you know the and the dream of
37:39course was you know transmuting light
37:40into gold why do they want to do that of
37:42course lead is plentiful and and and and
37:44worthless and gold is you know scarce
37:46and Incredibly valuable and so you know
37:48they were searching for kind of the
37:49magic formula for how to basically
37:50essentially write create wealth you know
37:52basically uh you know kind of
37:53turbocharged economy you know kind of
37:54make Society better in one step and and
37:56you know and they never figured it out
37:58um by the way it's an interesting
38:00question If you happen to know any
38:01material scientists I don't think there
38:03are any active research programs today
38:05um on literally turning lead into gold
38:07but it would be an interesting question
38:08for any material scientist you know
38:10um whether oh there is actually an
38:13example of this um there are now
38:14synthetic diamonds right and so there's
38:16there's now technology for actually
38:17turning carbon into diamonds
38:19um and so you know what one could argue
38:21we did we didn't get gold out the other
38:23end but maybe maybe they got the Diamond
38:26um you know but but I but I cite that
38:28example because like you know that was
38:30um and you know it wasn't you look back
38:32now and it's like that wasn't really
38:33science since we understand it even even
38:34at that point it was kind of there was
38:36like a lot of religion involved and they
38:38were still you know figuring some really
38:39basic thing I mean this is when Newton
38:41was still working on his like three laws
38:43of like how the universe works and so
38:44they were they were still trying to get
38:45the basics figured out
38:47you know look more recently
38:49um you know look there's a lot of things
38:51people talk about today that aren't
38:54um and you know we could have a very
38:55long discussion about those
38:57um we obviously we can't see the future
38:59um you mentioned Segway as an example
39:00like I would guess that that comes back
39:02you know I would guess that there will
39:03come a time uh when people will realize
39:06that that actually was a really good
39:07idea um and that there will be you know
39:09well actually it's been a spend a second
39:11on a Segway right so the theory of
39:14Segway actually it was a two-part theory
39:15part part one was the the device itself
39:17and you know it it it it greeted it got
39:20the backlash right up front for a
39:22variety of reasons just like the car did
39:23and so it became kind of this running
39:25joke and if you've if you like the very
39:27funny TV show Arrested Development you
39:28know they they take the goofiest you
39:30know kind of biggest character
39:31in the show they put them on a Segway so
39:32you know it became kind of this running
39:34joke at the time but but the device
39:35itself was only one it was only part one
39:38of the theory part two of the theory was
39:39that cities would get redesigned around
39:41right uh and so the theory basically was
39:44like why are Cities laid out the way
39:46they are cities are laid out the way
39:47they are because of the car right um
39:49I'll give you an example like there are
39:51I think the number is there are
39:52something on the order of two billion
39:54parking spots uh in the United States
39:55right so there's like mass in the total
39:59amount of for parking lots it's
40:00something like there's the parking lots
40:01I think if you put them all together in
40:02the US and something like the car they
40:03would cover the entire state of
40:04Connecticut right it's just this like
40:06massive amount of space devoted to
40:08basically roads and then parking uh you
40:10know for cars and then plus there's all
40:12the issues there's all the safety issues
40:13the cars there's all the you know
40:14pollution issues of cars you know
40:16there's all the noise issues and so
40:17forth and so on so basically with with
40:19the Segway guys at the time thought was
40:20you know really what should happen is
40:22City should get redesigned City should
40:23get redesigned assuming that there are
40:24no cars but you you know you don't just
40:26want people walking around you want
40:27people to move faster than that you
40:29probably don't want to bring horses back
40:31um they have other issues
40:34um and so if you redesign if you design
40:36a city from scratch you could basically
40:37design it with sidewalks and paths and
40:39then you could have like lots of
40:40different Segway power word style right
40:43things including like you know single
40:44passenger ones but also maybe you know
40:46little you know cards before people six
40:47people you could have cargo devices and
40:49so forth and so you know it may be that
40:51just what hasn't happened yet is
40:52nobody's actually trying to build that
40:54city right maybe there just needs to be
40:56a new kind of city and by the way maybe
40:58at some point somebody will do that and
40:59all of a sudden it'll be like wow those
41:01Segway guys you know whatever 40 years
41:02ago we're actually under the right thing
41:04and so if a lot of smart people are
41:05working on something it's like virtually
41:07guaranteed that it's going to happen
41:08it's just a question of when and like I
41:10said the win might be 40 years out and
41:12so it might not like it might not be
41:14those people who get the benefit or who
41:16kind of harvest the gains from doing the
41:18new thing but like It ultimately will
41:19happen and if you go back across many
41:22something we can spend a lot of time on
41:23but if you go back across a lot of
41:25historical Technologies you know it took
41:27like 50 years to get the TV to work you
41:29know there were um Optical Telegraph
41:32systems 50 years before the telegraph
41:34systems that we became familiar with
41:35they had like Optical Telegraph systems
41:38working in Paris in like the 1820s 1830s
41:40the fact machine the fax machine was
41:42invented in the 1870s it wasn't
41:45commercialized until the 1970s took 100
41:49um the computer you know the computer
41:50took like 50 years to get into consumer
41:53form and another 20 years after that to
41:55get into your pocket right and so the
41:57the history here is these things often
41:59just do take a while a long amount of
42:01time and my conclusion from that is
42:03basically it's all going to happen it's
42:04just this sort of massive question of
42:07yeah and on this idea of timing
42:09sometimes all it takes is a change in
42:10regulation a change in another
42:12technology becoming Mass Market that
42:14allows you know a follow-on effect
42:15something that I've heard you talk about
42:17before are kind of like these unlocks
42:20that happen throughout history that
42:21again have follow-on effects and one of
42:23them that you've mentioned from way back
42:25is the ability for people to own land
42:27and how those incentives really spurred
42:30a wave of innovation because people had
42:31the incentive to build on top are there
42:34other unlocks that you're paying
42:35attention to today that you've noticed
42:37let's say in the last five or so years
42:38it could be covid that you know allowed
42:40a bunch of people to work online and
42:41that's you know the next Industrial
42:42Revolution are there things that you
42:44think are really really meaningful from
42:46the last again let's say a couple years
42:49yeah so the the big one the big one is
42:51sort of the post-covet world so so the
42:53big one is kind of you know the rise of
42:54kind of remote work virtual work and the
42:56reason I say that's the big one is
42:58because you know it seems you know it
42:59seems relatively straightforward well I
43:01you know like you and I are recording
43:02this we're in different locations we're
43:03you know we're coming in across webcams
43:05um so it seems like it's just like a new
43:07way to work but it's actually deeper
43:08than that uh for the following reason
43:10which is basically the economic role of
43:13cities for basically all of recorded
43:15human history again going back four
43:16thousand years the role of cities
43:18basically is what it's what economists
43:20they call it agglomeration so the the
43:22role of cities is to basically get a
43:24critical mass of people in a single
43:26place where those people are able to
43:28come together and basically do things
43:30that are greater than those people could
43:31do as individuals right
43:32um and and that ultimately led to the
43:34creation of companies and led to the
43:35creation of like you know all these
43:36technology and science and all these
43:38other things that happen kind of as a
43:39consequence of kind of culture culture
43:41came out of cities like almost
43:42everything today that we would consider
43:43to be kind of good about kind of human
43:45existence you know kind of came out of
43:46the fact that people gathered in cities
43:48um like all the invention basically
43:49takes place in cities and so the role of
43:52the city was basically okay you you want
43:54you basically societally you want to
43:55basically attract the sort of smartest
43:57most ambitious most Innovative most
43:58creative people anywhere in society no
44:00matter where they grow up whether it's
44:01in like a small town or on a farm or you
44:03know by the way in another country
44:04whatever and you want to basically bring
44:06them to a city The Economist also have
44:09this term they call Superstar cities
44:10right um and these are the cities that
44:12basically turn out to be like Ground
44:13Zero for like a you know a fundamentally
44:15kind of revolutionary you know kind of
44:16thing right and become kind of a
44:18permanent Hub and so you know
44:19historically the San Francisco Bay area
44:21has been the Superstar city of
44:23Technology right the the way that works
44:25is if you're a young ambitious
44:26technologist you want to go to the San
44:29Francisco Bay Area you want to be a
44:31small fish in a big pond because you
44:32want to be around all the other smart
44:33people because the collective effect is
44:34going to be so powerful Los Angeles is a
44:37superstar City for you know for film and
44:38television New York is a superstar City
44:40for finance and for fashion and you know
44:42arts and all kinds of things London you
44:44know Paris these you know so these
44:46cities you know these big cities have
44:47played this kind of outside's role in
44:48economic history but they've all been
44:49based on this idea that you have to get
44:51all the smart people together in one
44:53Geographic place so that they can
44:55actually meet each other and talk to
44:56each other and work together and do
44:58projects together bounce ideas off each
44:59other challenge each other
45:01um again this is like a 4 000 year
45:03history of how progress has happened all
45:06of a sudden for the first time in 4 000
45:08years we now have both the technology in
45:10the form of the internet and zoom and
45:13webcams and remote work and
45:14collaboration tools and slack and all
45:15these you know amazing you know
45:16Technologies we have now uh you know the
45:19um and we now have this like sudden
45:21proof right that during the very you
45:24know kind of bad unpleasant dangerous
45:27covet lockdowns it turns out basically
45:29the companies were basically able to
45:30just keep keep running like any any
45:32company with knowledge work was able to
45:34just keep running you know all the way
45:36through coven to to a level of success
45:38that like nobody envisioned was even
45:39possible but you know before covet and
45:41so now of course you got this massive
45:42societal changes underway and by the way
45:44I think the societal changes from covet
45:45are just starting you've got this
45:47massive societal change underway where
45:48all of a sudden people can say like wow
45:50I don't have to be in the San Francisco
45:52Bay area or in New York City or in Paris
45:54or wherever it is in order to be part of
45:56the computer industry or the music
45:58industry or the movie industry or you
46:00know Finance or like whatever it is
46:02by the way like my kids are not going to
46:05have to be there right so even if I'm
46:06raising kids and I'm worried about their
46:07future like they don't necessarily have
46:08to be there so all of a sudden like the
46:10potential to fundamentally disconnect
46:11where people live from where people work
46:15um you know it has basically been open
46:16and then of course if you can separate
46:18the where you can also separate the how
46:20right and so what kind of community
46:23right would be the best for for example
46:25for kids to grow up in are the
46:27communities that we built in the last
46:28hundred years where it's been assumed
46:30that you have to kind of be part of
46:31these you know specific locations to
46:33fully participate in economic life are
46:35these the actual kinds of communities
46:36you want to raise kids in or is there
46:37actually completely different kind of
46:38community you would build if you knew
46:40you didn't have to be you know in a
46:41specific place to be able to have great
46:42jobs and so like and you know a lot we
46:46all probably know people like this like
46:47a lot of people are fundamentally
46:48re-examining like what do they want to
46:50do their lives like do they want like do
46:52they want to work do they want to work
46:54in the industry they're working at
46:55before do they want to work at the
46:57employer they're working at before right
46:58do they want to move to you know another
47:00country like they're you know completely
47:02rethinking right how many kids do they
47:04want to have like whether they want to
47:05have kids like all these things
47:07um you know do they want to get you know
47:08reconnected back you know to the
47:10extended families that they were forced
47:11to move away from all of these like
47:13fundamental questions are are being
47:15asked and and this I think I think 50
47:17years from now I think we'll look back
47:18it'll be like basically the internet and
47:20then this where basically the two big
47:23yeah I I have to agree with you I've
47:25been working remotely for probably seven
47:27years now so a little bit before covid
47:29but something that I'm finding
47:30fascinating is this idea of remote work
47:34in my opinion being a technology or at
47:37least there's technologies that enable
47:38it and similar to many other
47:40Technologies as we've talked about
47:41throughout this conversation there is a
47:43substantial backlash and also you know I
47:45have to give credit to the people who
47:48pushing back on remote work because
47:50there are things to be fixed just like
47:52we talked about every technology has
47:53problems to fix and those are business
47:55opportunities but I want to hear from
47:57you from the perspective that you
47:58mentioned before of this Power Balance
48:02being messed with with ever new
48:03technology and as more people start to
48:06work remotely and reconsider all this
48:08how would you frame the pushback of
48:10remote work with this idea of a power
48:14shift or Society reshuffling
48:17yeah so this really comes up uh I mean
48:20there's a bunch of there's a whole bunch
48:21of angles on this but like the one
48:22that's the one that I hear about all the
48:23time right now is when I talk to big
48:24company CEOs right so you talk to CEOs
48:27of like big Banks or big software
48:28companies right big big big big whatever
48:32um you know this basically is the
48:33conversation right because because what
48:35happened is basically you know if you're
48:36the CEO of a big company today you know
48:38you came up in an environment where
48:40everybody was in physical proximity
48:42right you you came up where the whole
48:43the whole way that you came up the whole
48:45way that you played politics and like
48:46got yourself in position that got
48:48yourself exposed to the important people
48:49and got promoted and like all this stuff
48:51you know did work with your teams right
48:53you know the way that you did deals the
48:55way that you like you know had had
48:56relationships with other people in the
48:58industry like you know the way you dealt
48:59with customers it was all based on
49:01in-person proximity right and which
49:03meant either in the office or by or by
49:04the way it meant on their own right
49:05business travel and that's true
49:06basically of like the entire management
49:08hierarchy of like every existing big
49:10company like they're all like that right
49:11and so all of a sudden now you have this
49:13like you have this incredible kind of
49:15you know phase shift happening and so
49:16now it's like okay like a whole bunch of
49:20questions open up like how does the
49:22um you know what is the balance between
49:24you know kind of you know in person and
49:27um you know how what is what are the
49:29implications of that for the org chart
49:30right you know job job roles change
49:33um geographically where should companies
49:35be located right I'll give you an
49:36example I talked to the head of one one
49:38big company that has based in Manhattan
49:40they've got about 20 of their employees
49:42are these super Advanced knowledge
49:43workers about 80 are kind of back office
49:44white white collar clear co-workers you
49:47know that SEO is like look like the 80
49:48clearly don't need to be in Manhattan
49:50anymore like we can put them in like
49:51South Dakota you know we can pay them
49:52like half as much there will be their
49:54standard of life will be twice as high
49:56um you know they'll be a lot happier
49:59um and uh and you know we can do that
50:02um now you know he says I think we still
50:04need to keep the 20 of the creatives
50:05together but like by the way the
50:07creatives get a vote too and if they
50:08decide to leave you know the in-person
50:10job and go remote and work for another
50:12you know company that industry that's
50:13one of the higher remotely like they
50:14have the ability to do that so like a
50:17lot of of these companies I think are
50:18going to like really dramatically
50:19restructure over the course of the next
50:20five years a lot of these CEOs basically
50:23the big company CEOs are like well we
50:25could never go full remote like that's
50:26impossible we can't do it you know
50:28you've got to talk to Startup CEOs and
50:30they're like well maybe we can right and
50:32so like here I'll talk our book for a
50:34second I'll kind of you know um I'll
50:36I'll get as close as I can to kind of
50:37saying that we might have something
50:39um you know look it may be that the
50:41remote work Revolution is just really
50:43bad for big companies right it just may
50:45be that it takes existing systems and
50:46models for how big companies operate and
50:48it basically breaks them and it may be
50:50that remote work is the kind of thing
50:52that you need to build a new company to
50:53be able to know how to do properly right
50:55because you need to kind of build a
50:56culture from scratch you need to build
50:57systems from scratch you need to build
50:59processes from scratch you need to build
51:00it may just be remote companies just
51:02need to get built differently and it
51:03might actually not be possible to
51:05reconstruct a big old company that's
51:07done things things went away and just
51:08restructure it so they can do things a
51:10completely different way and so you know
51:12this may accelerate the process of the
51:14you know turnover where some big
51:15companies you know go away faster and
51:17some new companies get much bigger
51:18faster like that's a possibility
51:20or by the way you know maybe I'm full of
51:24it right and maybe the opposite is true
51:26like maybe it turns out work just isn't
51:27good enough or maybe it turns out we
51:29actually don't have remote maybe we
51:31don't have the Technologies yet right
51:32maybe we need holographs right maybe we
51:36need you know big teleconferencing rooms
51:38maybe we need you know I don't know
51:39maybe I'll give you an example maybe
51:41every company in a certain size should
51:43own it it should own its own like
51:44literally its own hotel resort right and
51:47so right and so maybe what happens is
51:49basically like every team should be
51:51basically in Residence at like a really
51:53cool like hotel resort location for like
51:55you know a month in the spring and a
51:57month in the fall in a resort and maybe
51:58the company should just be running their
52:00teams through that and unless they do
52:01that kind of thing to be able to have
52:03critical mass the bonding like maybe it
52:05just won't work and like maybe that's a
52:06you know maybe that's a new kind of real
52:07estate development that has to happen
52:09you know to be able to have basically
52:10sort of think about a sort of corporate
52:12Resorts like to be you know right in
52:13other words to be an attractive enough
52:15place to come where you're willing to
52:16actually be away from home for a month
52:17maybe you can even bring your family
52:19with you right but everybody gets to
52:20work together like that you know those
52:23um and so I'm just speculating but like
52:25maybe there are things like that that we
52:27have yet to figure out
52:29um I I just have like a very strong
52:30sense that on the other side of this the
52:32world's going to work very differently I
52:33do too and what you're saying reminds me
52:36of something that when I had a chat with
52:37Neil Stevenson we we talked about which
52:40is when electricity was invented it was
52:42very easy to think okay electricity can
52:44can be applied to lighting okay that
52:46makes sense people can see that line but
52:48the example he gave was electric guitars
52:50not many people when electricity was
52:52first being invented could think oh okay
52:54well we're gonna have electric guitars
52:56from this and I think when you have
52:57these really foundational shifts like
52:59remote work it's very hard to think
53:00about those second third order effects
53:02but you do know they're gonna happen you
53:03don't you just don't always know exactly
53:05how they're going to manifest but I
53:07wanted to ask you quickly because a16z
53:09has moved to the cloud recently was
53:12there an aha moment or was there a
53:14specific thing that got you to change
53:16your mind or were you always kind of you
53:18know coming around to this idea because
53:21a lot of people say you know like strong
53:23opinions weekly held or something like
53:25that but not many people actually
53:26operate that way and so I think it was
53:28interesting to see a16z actually make a
53:30shift of previously being in the office
53:32to uh moving to the cloud so was there
53:35something that kind of unlocked that
53:37yeah so I was very people who know me
53:39will confirm this I was very anti-remote
53:41work basically before covet
53:43um I was probably pretty far on the on
53:45the end of like the spectrum of people
53:47thinking about this without being
53:48open-minded on it and and basically and
53:50and but that was true of us as a firm
53:52right and so we historically ran as a
53:53firm we ran actually a single office we
53:55had a single office excuse me in Menlo
53:57Park we actually even refused to open an
53:58office in San Francisco for for 10 years
54:00because we just we wanted like critical
54:01mass in the office and by the way people
54:04who actually worked or visited our
54:05office kind of between call it 2010 and
54:072020. they will tell you like it was a
54:09it was a hybrid activity like it was it
54:11was it it was a really cool place
54:13um and there was always all this all
54:14this amazing stuff happening all these
54:15amazing people walking around and like
54:16it you know we we wanted that kind of
54:18hot house environment and we got it but
54:21but that meant everybody like had to be
54:24um and then the other thing I always
54:25maintained was I was like look like
54:26there's this Theory remote work but like
54:28it hasn't yet worked for any company at
54:29any level of scale like the only
54:31companies that have made it work are
54:33um and and then um I said look just look
54:35at the data right and what the data
54:36basically said is the Superstar City
54:38thing I mentioned is basically in full
54:40effect and what the data basically said
54:42was Venture Capital uh it you know the
54:44funding for technology was actually
54:45concentrating more and more into the bay
54:48area right between between 2010 and
54:502020. if you look at just like the money
54:51was flowing more and more into the
54:53single place the people were flowing
54:56more and more into the single place I
54:58mean and to be clear like the valley as
54:59a place was bursting at the seams and
55:01housing became crazily expensive and
55:03transit's a disaster and like the CR you
55:04know of all these issues our politicians
55:06hate us like there's all these issues
55:08but this hot house environment this this
55:10this agglomeration hot house you know
55:13kind of thing was real right and it's
55:15and it's the thing that traditionally
55:16made you know made the value so special
55:18and it's why this was always sort of the
55:20hub for you know this has been the hub
55:21for 40 years where kind of all the you
55:22know almost all the great breakthroughs
55:24and and Technology have been happening
55:26um and so I was very much kind of on
55:28that page so for me it was literally it
55:30was literally going through covet right
55:31and so it was literally you know and we
55:33and again we were looking at this a
55:34couple different levels we were looking
55:35at this level of like how's our farm
55:37going to operate you know under lockdown
55:39we were also thinking about like how are
55:40our companies going to operate under
55:42lockdown and then we were also thinking
55:44about okay how is the industry as a
55:45whole right going to operate under
55:46lockdown like for example like how will
55:49new companies get started if a new
55:50company starts under conditions of
55:52lockdown like how will that actually
55:54um and then basically we we you know on
55:57a completely involuntary you know
55:59footing we we basically ran this
56:00experiment for two years uh and by the
56:03way we did one of the things we did is
56:04we did surveys the entire time so we did
56:06we did repeated sampling of the of the
56:07different constituencies and kind of
56:08asked you know to try to get a data kind
56:10of handled on what was happening and so
56:12it was really interesting because it's
56:13like six months in like people are like
56:14super nervous and it's like are these
56:15companies even going to continue working
56:17and then it's like 12 months in people
56:18are like well actually it turns out
56:20remote work at least for now works just
56:21as well and if anything maybe even
56:23better because people don't have
56:25anything else to do so they're actually
56:26working more right so the new problem is
56:30um you know 18 months later it was well
56:31you know actually we're going to start
56:33hiring remote people you know now now
56:35that we can do remote work we can now
56:36hire people who don't live you know
56:37you're near the campus so we can hire
56:39more broadly right and and so forth and
56:41so you could actually see in the data
56:43you could actually see basically the the
56:47preferences and the sort of beliefs
56:50um you know moving and then and then
56:51basically what Ben and I decided with
56:52our you know with our with our
56:53colleagues at the firm basically is like
56:55look the whole the firm is built to live
56:57in the future the firm is built to fund
56:59the best new companies and work with the
57:00best new entrepreneurs building the
57:01future like you know we want to be the
57:03Leading Edge in the industry
57:04um this is such a big change for the
57:06industry that like we have to live it
57:07like it doesn't make any sense to try to
57:09maintain the old model where we're
57:10basically funding the new model like we
57:11have to live the new model
57:12I think it's going very well like having
57:14said that like we're still figuring it
57:16out right and so like you know sure
57:17you're experiencing this it's like we're
57:19still figuring out like so for example
57:20in our firm we we put a big premium on
57:22having off sites like we now take off
57:24sites really seriously we really take
57:26getting people together on a regular
57:27basis very seriously we have like whole
57:29teams inside our firm now that are
57:30devoted just to like orchestrating all
57:32that making making all those all those
57:33happen but like is you know do we have
57:35the right balance of like remote versus
57:37like off-site do we need to have you
57:39know people have more some time do we
57:40have the right tools and systems in
57:42place are we running the first you know
57:43we have the right management practices
57:44and so you know we're we're certainly
57:46still figuring it out but we're
57:47definitely on that path yeah and like we
57:50talked about that comes with time but
57:51the reason I asked you how you made that
57:53shift or almost in in some way changed
57:55your opinion as you got new data is
57:57because I wonder how perhaps we might be
57:59able to do that within the framing of
58:01how people view Innovation and
58:03Technology kind of returning to what we
58:04talked about at the very beginning of
58:06this conversation it does feel like
58:08there is this perception of Technology
58:10of course not everyone holds it that you
58:12know we're in a a bad place or again the
58:14world's getting worse or or insert
58:15negative thing about our current state
58:17of affairs and I think it's really
58:19inspiring at at least at a16z to see
58:22that people do hold this very optimistic
58:24View and I wonder what you think maybe
58:26we can do as a collective as a society
58:29to maybe Orient more around this more
58:32positive view of Technology because from
58:35my understanding and I'd actually love
58:36for you to go into this history it
58:37doesn't sound like this was always the
58:39case that technology I mean specific
58:41Technologies were viewed quite
58:43negatively but a sense around Innovation
58:45I think has been different in the past
58:49yeah so check that's a good point so
58:51technologies have always kind of gone
58:52through this cycle and I would go so far
58:54as to say like the technology adoption
58:56cycle resistance cycle like I'm not sure
58:58it's actually going to change
59:00um Douglas Adams the the science fiction
59:02author Douglas Adams who wrote The
59:03Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy had
59:04another take on this that sort of both
59:07very fun very funny very serious right
59:09so he said basically it's like uh any
59:11technology that existed before you were
59:13like 15 years old um is just like the
59:15natural Order of Things
59:17um you know any technology that gets
59:18invented between the time when you're
59:20like 15 and 35 is like new and exciting
59:22and cool and Cutting Edge and like maybe
59:23you can make a career in it and then any
59:25new technology that arrives after the
59:27age of 35 is Unholy and against you know
59:29against the against the natural order
59:30right and it's going to bring Doom to
59:32civilization you know another way to
59:34kind of putting the put in the Sim cycle
59:35so so there's a there's a so like the
59:37the the most kind of I don't know the
59:39most negative thing you could say or
59:40something would be like there's just
59:41this like permanent generational
59:42psychological thing this cycle where it
59:46uh another famous wedding it's the great
59:48physicist Max Planck once said uh uh
59:50science advances one funeral at a time
59:53um you're right meaning that like you
59:55know in science you need like the old
59:56senior scientists who have like one
59:57Paradigm to like quite literally die off
59:59so that the young scientists in the new
01:00:00paradigm can actually like take over you
01:00:02know the the sort of pessimistic view
01:00:04would be like this is just so deeply
01:00:06baked into into uh the mentality of how
01:00:08people operate uh psychologically that
01:00:09it's just like the permanent State of
01:00:12by the way like you know I don't know if
01:00:14that's optimal for society I will tell
01:00:16you that State of Affairs is very good
01:00:18for entrepreneurs right
01:00:20um because if more people in positions
01:00:22of power were more open to new
01:00:23technologies right the the opportunity
01:00:25especially for the young entrepreneur
01:00:27with a breakthrough idea would actually
01:00:28diminish right because the big old
01:00:30companies are already doing all the new
01:00:31things and so it it may be like what one
01:00:34response to me would be like Mark shut
01:00:36up like stop talking to people about
01:00:39this because we actually want everybody
01:00:40in position of power to just assume that
01:00:42all new technologies are stupid and evil
01:00:43because we want all the opportunity to
01:00:45be available to all the kids who are
01:00:46starting all the new companies
01:00:48so so yeah so that side of the thing
01:00:49that's one side of things and then yeah
01:00:50that which you mentioned so this broader
01:00:52societal thing so then there's this
01:00:53broader societal thing that's happening
01:00:54which is basically this the sort of
01:00:58different societies have sort of
01:01:01um uh and belief systems around even
01:01:03just like the fundamental idea of
01:01:05progress right and so I I won't I won't
01:01:07I won't I won't pick on I won't I won't
01:01:09name names but let's just say there are
01:01:10certain Societies in global history that
01:01:13you know at different points in time
01:01:14have decided like we're just not gonna
01:01:16do new things like we're not gonna talk
01:01:18to outside people we're not going to
01:01:20adopt new technologies we're just like I
01:01:22mean there are societies on planet Earth
01:01:23you know I mean North North Korea uh you
01:01:26know there are societies like that today
01:01:27uh well another example you know the
01:01:30Amish like have a entire religion and
01:01:32belief system right around the the fact
01:01:34that they don't adopt new technologies
01:01:35by the way like I'm a I'm a free market
01:01:37three Minds guy like I think people
01:01:39should live how they want if they want
01:01:40to live that way I think that's fine
01:01:41it's a choice you can choose right to
01:01:43not like think progress is a good thing
01:01:45uh to not think the new technology
01:01:46should be adopted I you know I would
01:01:48argue in the fullness of time but you
01:01:49know it's it's hard to have your quality
01:01:52of life be at the same level as if
01:01:54you're you're more open to new
01:01:55technologies but like you know societies
01:01:57do decide that they don't want new
01:01:59um if you kind of look historically at
01:02:01the U.S and more broadly kind of the
01:02:04um you do basically see this pattern
01:02:07where there was a lot of resistance to
01:02:08new ideas you know call it from the end
01:02:10of the Roman Empire through to basically
01:02:12the Renaissance you know some so-called
01:02:13Dark Ages right so there was like a
01:02:15whatever 1200 year stretch or something
01:02:16where you know not much happened
01:02:19um and then um and then basically you
01:02:22know over the last 500 years like in the
01:02:24west there's sort of this ethos of
01:02:25progress that kind of emerged and you
01:02:27know since it's all Enlightenment and
01:02:28the Scientific Revolution and the
01:02:29Industrial Revolution right and so forth
01:02:31and then you know the rise of
01:02:32protestantism which was very important
01:02:34because it meant that people could seek
01:02:35out the answers to life's mysteries on
01:02:36their own right um and then the rise of
01:02:38what was called natural philosophy that
01:02:40became science and so there was sort of
01:02:42this system that was developed to
01:02:43basically go uncover basically
01:02:45scientific truths and then and then
01:02:46build new technologies and then
01:02:48basically build you know what we
01:02:49consider to be like a modern capitalist
01:02:50economy on top of that
01:02:52um if you asked people in 1880 or 1900
01:02:56um or 1920 or even 1960 if you ask most
01:03:00people if they thought that that whole
01:03:01set of things was a good idea most
01:03:03people would have said yes uh you know
01:03:05they this is a sort of the Eric known as
01:03:07modernity right so this was like
01:03:09basically uh you know this is the era of
01:03:11like you know we want a progress in
01:03:12Civilization we want there to be like
01:03:14you know we want higher standards of
01:03:16um you know we we you know we we want to
01:03:18be able to look back and say like yeah
01:03:19yes we like we advance civilization as
01:03:22as compared to you know what what our
01:03:24what our forefathers had
01:03:26um and you know and if you read like
01:03:27books written in you know kind of in
01:03:29those eras they you know they only take
01:03:31great pride in in all the progress
01:03:32that's been made you know in the West in
01:03:34the last 50 years that's kind of gone
01:03:37um you know there's an ethos in the west
01:03:38that kind of started in the 60s and
01:03:40extends into our era which basically
01:03:41says well maybe you know a lot of this
01:03:43stuff is not so good maybe it's like bad
01:03:44for the environment maybe it's bad for
01:03:46you know whatever whatever like there's
01:03:48you know there's a whole bunch of
01:03:49different arguments like this and like
01:03:50maybe we've had enough progress maybe
01:03:52we've had enough science maybe we've had
01:03:53enough technology uh you know the the
01:03:55sort of classic example this is like
01:03:57nuclear power right like you know we
01:03:59invented a way to basically have
01:04:00unlimited clean energy and then we just
01:04:02like decided we don't we don't want it
01:04:04you know people in 1920 if you tell
01:04:06people in 1910 that they could have
01:04:08nuclear power like there would be like
01:04:0910 000 nuclear plants like in the United
01:04:11States running today you know but you
01:04:13tell people in 1975 or 19 you know 98 or
01:04:17you know whatever 2022 they can have
01:04:18nuclear power and they're like yeah
01:04:19let's not have any of that and so I
01:04:21think there there has been this sort of
01:04:23negative cultural shift um Tyler Cohen
01:04:25calls this the complacency you know
01:04:27ross.pat calls this uh decadence
01:04:30um you know there's been this kind of
01:04:32you know things are good enough we don't
01:04:35need more of this uh you know or or the
01:04:37more extreme form which is like all
01:04:38progress is bad like all these new
01:04:39technologies like they're just flat out
01:04:40bad it's all bad it should all stop you
01:04:42know kind of the Unabomber kind of
01:04:44argument right uh yeah but people
01:04:46weren't born with that mentality right
01:04:48like people weren't born with like uh
01:04:50like progress is bad right they've
01:04:52they've learned that and I do wonder is
01:04:54it just because things have been so good
01:04:55right like that we've we've done so well
01:04:58you mentioned specifically this
01:04:59mentality within the West that people no
01:05:02longer have something to strive for even
01:05:05though they certainly do but is that
01:05:07just a reality that things have gone so
01:05:09well that people have obtained this
01:05:11mentality yeah so that's a theory that's
01:05:13a theory some people are calling that
01:05:14it's called upper income trap
01:05:16um so basically it's like the theory
01:05:18basically is yeah once people hit like
01:05:19an upper middle class standard of living
01:05:22um where they're kind of like you know
01:05:23they got a house they got a car you know
01:05:24they got whatever they got you know
01:05:25college they got you know hospital
01:05:26nearby and like they got you know
01:05:28Netflix they've got like whatever you
01:05:32um you know good restaurants nearby
01:05:33whatever like at some point they're just
01:05:34like damn like it's fine you know it's
01:05:37good enough uh you know anything you
01:05:38know anything beyond this is probably
01:05:40excessive um you know some people are
01:05:42joking right now that this explains
01:05:43What's called the Fermi Paradox so the
01:05:46the Fermi Paradox is this question of
01:05:47like why do we not know of other like
01:05:49basically civilizations in the Galaxy
01:05:51like why why you know why do we not know
01:05:53of any like alien civilizations like
01:05:55there's you know billions and billions
01:05:56of planets like throughout the Universe
01:05:57and like we should be able to like pick
01:05:59up signals and we should be able to get
01:06:00like you know TV broadcasts or whatever
01:06:02further civilizations traveling across
01:06:04space and like we should know about
01:06:05others and like basically what why
01:06:06aren't you know why is it still after
01:06:07all this time with all these radio
01:06:08telescopes it's just still you know
01:06:10Humanity on planet Earth and the so this
01:06:12argument basically goes it's basically
01:06:13this the same thing it's just like yeah
01:06:15other species of aliens develop the same
01:06:18level of upper middle class lifestyle
01:06:19that we have and then they all just kind
01:06:20of shrugged and said
01:06:21you know well you know look you know
01:06:25here we sit like so mankind you know we
01:06:26went to the moon like we went to the
01:06:29um we went to the moon a lot
01:06:31um we went to the moon a bunch of times
01:06:32I think the last time we went to the
01:06:34moon I think the last time humanity went
01:06:35to the moon was in like 1972 or 73 right
01:06:39and so I'm pretty sure that's 1970 1972
01:06:42right so it's been 50 years since we
01:06:44went to the moon and like our answer to
