00:00hello welcome to the a 16 said podcast
00:03or a 16 Z if we want to localize this
00:07I'm Benedict Evans I'm here today
00:09talking with Steven Sinofsky one of my
00:12new colleagues at Andreessen Horowitz
00:14Steven hello hi there how's it going
00:16pretty good so you spent a long time
00:19working on productivity and working out
00:22ways that people were going to work in
00:24ways that would change and how that
00:26could be taken forward over time and you
00:28wrote a really interesting blog post a
00:31day or two ago looking at how devices
00:34and cloud and SAS kind of brewing a sort
00:38of generational change into how those
00:40kind of tools work you talked a bit
00:42about your blog post and how you think
00:44about that sure well you know for me it
00:46really just it all starts back when I
00:48started in computing you know and I
00:50started in computing I was you know
00:52helping to computerize that was the word
00:54we used back then my father's own own
00:56business and I've seen a lot of
00:58productivity stuff over over the years
01:01my first actual paying job and that was
01:04a summer at a very large large defense
01:07contractor it was the 80s the Cold War
01:09defense contractor jobs were we all we
01:12all went and did in the computer world
01:13and you know I showed up that that first
01:16day of work and you know they used this
01:19email system that we don't think of as
01:21email it was called profs and it was IBM
01:23mainframe based email so those of you
01:25that dates you and you knew about Oliver
01:27North and the whole Iran Contra scandal
01:29that was how they communicated was with
01:31this process email and the way that that
01:33managers used email was they would get
01:37mail but they would have somebody an
01:38assistant printed out and then they
01:40would dictate the reply and then they
01:42would type the reply in and send it and
01:44so it wasn't visible at all that it was
01:46happening electronically to management
01:48and next every administrative person's
01:51desk was a Selectric typewriter and the
01:55telex was the way that you quickly
01:57transmitted information and and
01:59literally that was when I started at
02:01Microsoft that's what the average
02:02workplace looked like outside of
02:04Microsoft where we actually used command
02:06line xenyx based email as a huge
02:09productivity tool and and it was right
02:12when people were starting to
02:13hook office into desktops or office like
02:17software in fact it was mostly Dawson
02:19and things like that and those tools
02:21were used essentially to automate that
02:24style of work and so even like business
02:27writing memos and spreadsheets
02:29themselves we're sort of done in this
02:31analog fashion where somebody would have
02:33ideas and then give them to another
02:35person to execute with some computers
02:38and then print them out and distribute
02:40them and what happened through the the
02:42years that I ended up was lucky enough
02:44to work on productivity software was
02:45that whole process became democratized
02:47and and everybody participated I mean I
02:51remember you know that when we finally
02:52started seeing companies where people an
02:54executive and senior management would do
02:56their own email you know it was this
02:58huge turns out that was a huge
03:00productivity win because there wasn't
03:01these human routers in the middle you
03:04know basically printing and handing in
03:05those days of showing up in an office
03:07with a stack of printouts that were just
03:08mail messages ended and so now we've got
03:11this we got to this world where these
03:13tools were democratized and it create
03:16didn't just make things more efficient
03:19and also defined a work culture and so
03:21the whole idea of getting slides ready
03:23for a meeting you know the bigger the
03:25meeting or the more important the
03:26executives or at a meeting the more time
03:28you spend upfront preparing and sort of
03:31debugging those slides and the tools got
03:34created to support that process like
03:36sort of a fascinating thing where like
03:37if aligning every item on the slide by a
03:40pixel perfect thing was a big deal then
03:42all of a sudden features would get
03:43created and you I would get surfaced and
03:46that would become part of the task and
03:48we optimized that dramatically we
03:50created new modules of software we went
03:52and built an enterprise scale server so
03:54the documents could be shared in the
03:56server and that sort of gets us to where
03:59almost everybody is today and it's a
04:02fascinating place except for this
04:03generational change that's happening
04:06right now where all of a sudden
04:07everybody's showing up to the meeting
04:09with a phone and it's and or tablet you
04:11know maybe in addition to their laptop
04:13but those phones and tablets are
04:14changing the whole flow of what's going
04:16on yeah I think that's right I mean my I
04:19mean my say my first experience of
04:22computing communications were scribbling
04:25on the back of telex stack tract of
04:27stacks that my father bought home from
04:29his General Electric Company plant he's
04:32making very big pieces of electrical
04:33equipment in the UK and then I arrived
04:37in the workplace in 98 or 99 so that was
04:40the heyday of office and Windows NT 4
04:43and my amazing transformative SAS
04:46product was Bloomberg which is still
04:49like the biggest SAS and social network
04:51and is an information visualization
04:54platform that nobody in the valley has
04:55ever seen which is kind of a fascinating
04:57other conversation the only people you
04:59can disrupt limberger people you've
05:00never seen it and have no idea what a
05:02beautiful but then they're kind of as
05:05you say it's like I think to my time
05:08working in big companies the kind of the
05:10PowerPoint Excel paradigm so much of
05:14what's done with it is not what anybody
05:15in Excel would have it is not what Dan
05:18the guy who created Dan visit Dan burka
05:21which would have thought you do with it
05:23you see Excel used as a desktop
05:25publishing program you see it you see it
05:27used as a substitute for an SQL database
05:29you see PowerPoint used as an internal
05:33business reporting tool are not taking
05:35two or no teaching tool you know exactly
05:38and so you see these products being bent
05:40which is kind of a tribute to their
05:42flexibility but it also then
05:43points to opportunities and coming
05:46coming up what you say from the other
05:48end opportunities to create new kind of
05:50products that peel away some of those
05:51these cases so it seems to me that
05:53you're on the one hand you have a lot of
05:55uses particularly they've Excel there
05:57should be a sass or Eve use you know the
06:00you know my friends at NBC Universal
06:02orange or whatever who you know part of
06:04your weekly or monthly routine is you
06:06spend a day making a fifteen slide
06:08PowerPoint full of business metrics you
06:10think that that kind of shouldn't be
06:12what you're using Excel and PowerPoint
06:13for well it's a fascinating thing you
06:16know like I mean the of course the
06:17flexibility of the tools was was you
06:20know the people just that designed them
06:21did amazing amazing work and I don't
06:23take no credit for having designed the
06:25the tools and and it is amazing I mean
06:28you see Excel and it's used one of these
06:30eye-opening experiences I had was to
06:31find out at one point in the in the 90s
06:34that Excel was the preferred word
06:36processor in Japan because the
06:39the documents in Japan are all highly
06:42structured with grids if you ever
06:44checked into a hotel or bought a ticket
06:45or something in Japan you see the grid
06:47and it turns out that's just the way
06:49they prefer to have documents in that
06:50market and as we tried to break into
06:52that market with with word processing we
06:55found out that Excel was the word
06:56processor and so all of a sudden the
06:58word processed us to pick up all of
06:59those features now but now I need people
07:02a whole banking team I worked with did
07:04all their presentations in would yeah
07:06which is exactly the same kind of thing
07:07well we're you know word is they're
07:09getting flies in what well of course
07:11it's interesting that bankers would do
07:13that but because generally you know a
07:15word processor is really just a
07:16spreadsheet with one cell yeah and so
07:18it's that's a joke you're there's
07:20laughter yeah well I was just thinking
07:24of an interesting point yeah but but
07:28what's what's also fascinating is a lot
07:30of where each of these modules in
07:33productivity software part of the reason
07:35that they're they do all of these things
07:38you know there's you can make a table in
07:40every module of an every productivity
07:42tool tools that Microsoft makes tools
07:44that other companies make and part of
07:46that reason is because those tools were
07:47all created in an era where actually
07:50getting the software into somebody's
07:52computer or onto somebody's computer was
07:54a challenge and so it was no surprise
07:57for example that went the original
07:59versions of WordPerfect evolved to sort
08:02of build in document management into
08:03WordPerfect not just because it's like a
08:06lot of people who use WordPerfect we're
08:08also using document management in law
08:09firms and government and regulatory
08:11environments but because if you had to
08:13go through the trouble of getting
08:14WordPerfect on to the computer in a
08:15world without networks or slow networks
08:17you might as well just put everything
08:19that they might want into it and so this
08:21is sort of this bundling that happened
08:23originally interestingly enough word
08:25processors were sold separate from spell
08:26checkers and grammar checkers and
08:28drawing programs you the old word star
08:31product line one of the original DAWs
08:33word processors there was spell star and
08:35correct star and and all of these other
08:37it mud and then but the distribution of
08:39those became so tricky they gradually in
08:41the competitive dynamic gradually caused
08:43those to join together and and then once
08:46you were going through the trouble of
08:47getting something onto a PC you really
08:50wanted it to have everything
08:51but today's model where everything is
08:54sort of a click away even apps which
08:56everybody can talk about the headaches
08:57of getting all the different apps and
08:59stuff but the friction is very very low
09:01and your ability to put it on the
09:03machine to get off the machine is very
09:05very easy not just because of the store
09:07but because things in the modern mobile
09:09architecture is like there's no registry
09:11to worry about there's no side effects
09:13of one app messing up another app and
09:15all of those things make it so that the
09:17the try then buy or just the use the
09:20front-end to the thing you purchase are
09:21way easier which allows the productivity
09:25experience itself to sort of be
09:26unbundled in a in a way that makes a
09:29little bit more sense so the Excel
09:30scenarios you see lots of word
09:32processors you see lots of tools for
09:34making tables you see lots of tools for
09:36interacting with like checklists and
09:38to-do lists or tools at a very rich
09:40semantic level like like organizing
09:42events or organizing people or great
09:44tools like asana that are about task
09:45lists yeah where you you now can have
09:48these specialized tools and they just
09:49work for the task at hand a lot better
09:51yeah I mean that's the thing we were
09:53chatting about the other day that if you
09:54go to file new in any productivity
09:56program you basically see a list of
09:58ideas for iPhone apps you know it's like
10:00the sports tracker the you know the
10:02homework results saying you know the
10:04home budget those are all apps now I
10:06mean there's a there's a thing you again
10:10thinking about the bundling isn't one of
10:12the dynamics around that that historic
10:14bundling that basically the output was
10:16supposed to be a stack of pieces of
10:17paper very often and see one a stack of
10:20pieces of paper with charts and diagrams
10:21and pictures and text and therefore what
10:25kind of made sense that you could do
10:26where you could do word inside it you
10:28could do text inside a table or you
10:29could do a table inside tag right
10:31depending on what the kind of the
10:32emphasis was going to be where is now
10:34you know when you look at all of these
10:36sort of SAS products they're not ever
10:38actually intended to be printed out
10:39anymore well in fact that's one of the
10:41most fascinating things about just
10:42visiting all of the the startups that I
10:45spend time with down here is is that
10:49we're like printer there are no printers
10:50like you'd like it's far more important
10:52to purchase a coffee machine as a
10:54start-up than it would be to buy a
10:56printer and in printers just literally
10:58you you can't find them like in fact I
11:00tried to print out some notes for this
11:02meeting and our printers they're like
11:03two of them and there
11:04even in very convenient places and and
11:06it's because it's just not the the
11:08metaphor if you think about the average
11:10large kind of company meeting even today
11:13the vast majority of meetings are start
11:14off with somebody showing up and passing
11:16out like a printed version of a work
11:19product you you just don't see that in a
11:22company of less than you know a thousand
11:24people like that's just not a metaphor
11:27that people really use and it's not even
11:29the interesting thing about it is it's
11:30not just that everybody got emailed the
11:33attachment for the meeting it's that
11:35people are looking at things like live
11:36data so when when you visit a smaller
11:39company and they're looking at their
11:40current telemetry for their app their
11:42site their service there they're all
11:45looking at the actual tools that are
11:47used by the marketing team to manage the
11:49information or the IT team to manage the
11:51information they're not looking at like
11:53a snapshot from even a few hours earlier
11:55so you don't have you you cut out all of
11:57this process called well those numbers
11:59aren't up to date let me go do them you
12:01don't have those presentations where a
12:03picture of the numbers are embedded in
12:05the presentation yeah and they're
12:06pivoted the wrong way like if you want
12:08to sort the numbers by a different way
12:09don't don't like have one person do it
12:12on their laptop and then say okay let me
12:13plug my machine in yeah just like it
12:15becomes that always became an action
12:17item it's one of those numbers okay
12:19write down right and you come out of a
12:20meeting with you've got ten action items
12:22for people asking for more numbers and
12:23whereas now it's just well you press the
12:25button and there they are right and I
12:27think these are the things to me that
12:28are just these huge cultural shifts in
12:30in how in how you manage an organization
12:33like what your role as a manager is in a
12:35meeting is no longer to be reported to
12:37because frankly if you want to know you
12:40should just go visit the place that
12:41everybody on the team is already using
12:43to keep track of their information and
12:45when you get everybody together it
12:47shouldn't be to argue the pros and cons
12:49of how the information was gathered or
12:51is it the right number is it the number
12:53of pivot of the right way it should be
12:54we all agree this is the number is it
12:57good or bad and what should we do as an
12:59organization to change that number and
13:01people point all the stuff about
13:02aligning pixels and so on just goes
13:04except though you know when you're doing
13:06and external things I mean there's a
13:08there's a point here about devices I
13:09think because they say you know whenever
13:11I talk about you know mobile as a future
13:15generally I'll post a chart showing
13:17sales of smartphones versus sales for
13:19PCs wouldn't always the smart phones
13:21versus dual base of PCs and people come
13:22always push back and say well I'd like
13:24to see you do that blog post on a tablet
13:26yeah I like to see you produce all of
13:28those charts on a tablet and I think
13:32there's kind of two parts to this one of
13:34them is it's a bit like saying well you
13:36can't you get real work people so you
13:38can't get real work done on mobile
13:39devices like saying you can't get real
13:41work done on a laptop you need a desktop
13:42because you need the bigger screen and
13:43you know there was a point 20 years ago
13:46when that was true and that line has
13:48kind of moved steadily of the stuff that
13:50you actually needed a desktop yeah we
13:51shrunk and shrunk and shrunk and shrunk
13:53and now it's really only like hardcore
13:55video editing or something you need an
13:56enormous screen for and I think tablets
13:59in particular and to some extent
14:00smartphones again sort of sit in that
14:02continuum like what is it you're
14:03actually trying to do how many of the
14:05things that you're doing need a keyboard
14:06and a mouse and a task screen but that
14:08then just to finish the point that then
14:10flows into this question the analogy I
14:12gave earlier somebody doing a weekly
14:15PowerPoint reporting document you know
14:17if your job is if you are a BD person or
14:21sales person and once a week you have to
14:23send your head of sales a 15-page deck
14:25outlining what's going on
14:27then you need a keyboard and a mouse in
14:28a big screen you don't actually need a
14:30keyboard a bear Mouse and a big screen
14:31to be a Beebe person well and so that's
14:34all rows for so in a sass or win
14:35something else then that whole workflow
14:38drops out right for the device you need
14:40drops out well absolutely I mean that's
14:43the sort of the key like if you're the
14:44sales manager you should just be looking
14:46at Salesforce all the time and or
14:49whatever tool you're using the that
14:50allows you to just see what's really
14:52going on in real time and the process
14:54should not be a weekly summary of the
14:56past I mean that's just a it's not an
14:58efficient way to run an organization
14:59when the up-to-the-minute information is
15:01available because your sales person as
15:03they are waiting for for the flight the
15:06car the plane or just walking home from
15:08the account there they're updating it on
15:10their mobile device what everybody the
15:12view of everybody they're seeing but I
15:14would I'm a little hesitant to go down
15:17the path of like how do you do X in Y
15:20like how do you do this thing on a
15:23tablet how do you do that thing on a
15:24phone how would you ever do that thing
15:28notebook I mean how would that sales
15:29person walking down the street fill out
15:31the up to date information and sales
15:32force using a browser in a notebook they
15:34can't but the logical end of being
15:37careful about that is everybody's going
15:39to have five devices which is also not
15:41going to happen and and so what what or
15:44even if you just say no it's only gonna
15:46be a tablet and a laptop or it's only
15:49gonna be a phone and a laptop because I
15:51don't need a tablet except you kind of
15:52do on a bigger screen sometimes because
15:54if you have a bigger screen more and
15:55more tools can take over the
15:57productivity work and and really there's
15:59gonna be this whole continuum but at
16:01some point like whatever it is you
16:04define is worth is also changing and I
16:07think that's the part whenever I get and
16:09on Twitter and in comments on other
16:12people's posts you get in this this
16:14thing where people say I can't do X in
16:15in on a tablet or on a phone yeah and
16:18the answer is X doesn't if your job to
16:20do X always acts just great you're doing
16:22for some underlying challenge and but in
16:25some cases yes it is if you know if
16:26you're coding in Eclipse right kind of
16:28want to keyboard anything well and and
16:29but most people's job is not actually to
16:32produce spreadsheets or to produce
16:34presentation right it's something else
16:37or to write code like code it's
16:39something else all right which the thing
16:41that they think they need am you bored
16:43that they using a keyboard or a mouse
16:44yeah I mean certainly long ago like you
16:48know I witnessed sales people who
16:50basically routinely would only do things
16:52that they could accomplish on their
16:54smartphones there early generation
16:55smartphones and what you what I watched
16:57happen was you know field engaged people
17:00gradually just stopped responding to
17:03email and starting to either text or
17:06call because they just were no longer
17:08able to they there wasn't ubiquitous
17:11wireless LAN for a laptop and their
17:13laptops they weren't carrying them to
17:15meetings it became a burden now if they
17:17had to do demos they had to do
17:18presentations they were carrying their
17:20laptops and guess what those things now
17:22are enabled by tablets whether its
17:23surface or an iPad or a Android tablet
17:27all of those the form factor has allowed
17:29a different level of computing and and
17:32at the same time like which is so
17:35exciting is it this is it is like a
17:36revolution almost in every sense because
17:38the managers sitting back to the office
17:41find that work processes sometimes the
17:44least likely to be the person calling
17:46for change and so I kind of wrote this
17:49blog post as a call to action like you
17:51you have you know it's hard like if your
17:54boss tells you to fill out a weekly
17:55report and they're very specific I mean
17:57believe me I have seen every kind of
17:59mandated presentation staff support and
18:02spreadsheet that you could imagine like
18:04I millions of documents we've collected
18:06when I was at Microsoft that were all
18:08about like you know I remember seeing I
18:10remember seeing you know a general in
18:12requiring status reports to all be done
18:15on one slide with four quadrants with
18:17this format and no bigger than this
18:20FedEx no smaller than that text no
18:21pictures and you know like he is a
18:23general like so he has a lot of stuff at
18:26his disposal to compel you to do the
18:28format in that way and you have no tools
18:30to just jump up and down and say I
18:32object General Sir I'm not gonna do that
18:35and so part of what's going on is there
18:37is this this bottom-up change in work
18:40and it's gonna take time and there are
18:42people who are literally I would just I
18:43would almost say there are victims of a
18:46workflow and they don't get a vote
18:47but there are also plenty of schools
18:50that are changing and there are plenty
18:52of people that are changing where it is
18:53gonna happen and all of these things
18:54when you're talking about a universe of
18:56people using a tool that's you know a
18:57billion plus in any of the tools people
19:00who insist on every like they're in
19:02organizations that insist on you have to
19:03go visit our our desktop browser based
19:06website to fill in an update and expense
19:08report okay that's just another work
19:10item that got defined by the platform
19:12and believe me we've seen tons of
19:14companies where they're building new
19:15ways to fill out that mundane business
19:17report which used which for a long time
19:20became the thing you had to stack up and
19:21do only at the end of the week and
19:23incidentally that was a perfect example
19:25of an early kind of work that could
19:27never have been computerized when when I
19:29was making the rounds trying to get
19:32people to automate expense reporting
19:33they all looked at me and said that's
19:35why we have a Selectric typewriter
19:36because our expense reports need to be
19:39filled out in triplicate I'm calm man
19:40and they have to be the items all have
19:43to fit on these lines and my computer
19:44doesn't fit on those lines because
19:46nobody wrote tractor fed paper that that
19:49worked and and of course in my head that
19:51was exactly what I did for my father's a
19:53small business but also
19:55right so there is a place where the the
19:58the work product can change and it takes
20:01a long time like there's somebody in IT
20:02and expense reporting that defined it
20:04and then eventually I watched even a
20:07mile job I watched the electric
20:09typewriters gradually fade but believe
20:11me we had them all in the 90s like it
20:13took a while before that they they went
20:15away and there you still will have
20:17business processes that are like that
20:19and then then on top of that there are
20:21things that are just like if you're a
20:24finance person and you're doing a giant
20:25model or you're a trading system all
20:27those those don't things don't go away
20:29and that's one of the common things is
20:30this is such an emotional debate for
20:32people you know you cannot take away my
20:34laptop it defines my job to finds my
20:36work and you know this is this also a
20:39huge amount of this is just also
20:40additive you don't define the new thing
20:43as always subsuming all of the old you
20:46know and and there were gonna be
20:47breakthroughs and I always think about
20:49the analogies between movies in the
20:51theater you know it turns out that
20:53movies would have gone away long ago had
20:56it you people just define movies as
20:58putting one camera in front of actors on
21:00he's a very boring way to watch a
21:03theater presentation and but then all of
21:06a sudden someone said oh you know these
21:07cameras they can move around they can go
21:09outside we could use more than one the
21:11and a whole new form got created that is
21:14actually what's happening in business
21:16right now so it's not that you're gonna
21:18look at the 15 page status report and
21:20say how can I do a 15 page status
21:23support in this tool or look at this
21:24giant tracking spreadsheet and say how
21:26do I do this in a tablet what's
21:29happening is new tools the tools are now
21:32five years old you know or at the very
21:34least you know two or three years old
21:36and all of a sudden we're seeing this
21:38explosion in new approaches to the work
21:41products themselves and that's what's
21:43particularly exciting right now is that
21:44people are now there is enough
21:46experience with the form factor to say
21:48we don't have to just do it the old way
21:50that the the whole way we think about it
21:52can change so sort of a final question I
21:55suppose we've gone from having a network
21:57drive with a more or less chaotic or
22:00sensible folder structure and you could
22:02put everything in the project folder and
22:03it might be Excel or Photoshop or
22:06or any other thing or Visio or something
22:09but you who kind of know where
22:10everything was where is now you've got
22:1310 cloud services and it could be in any
22:15of five of them so we're kind of going
22:17through this phase of massive innovation
22:19and massive competition and great new
22:22companies being created do you think
22:23we're going to kind of narrow in a bit
22:25on a smaller set of companies actually I
22:28would take a different view and I would
22:30I would say it's not as much about a
22:32smaller set of companies as every time
22:36there's one of these discontinuities in
22:37technology and I think we are because of
22:39mobile and so there you a bunch of new
22:42tools appear and then it takes a little
22:43bit of time to figure out the new
22:45problems that these new tools created
22:46and that's fine because that's how
22:49innovation works like if you know the
22:52enemy of the good is the perfect yeah
22:55and so if we all locked ourselves in a
22:57room until there was the perfect tool
22:58for doing work in a company it would be
22:59out of day too big too hard to roll out
23:01all of those things so the only thing
23:04that we know for sure is that things are
23:05the processes that are currently in
23:07place are essentially being disrupted by
23:10all of these new tools and the companies
23:12that go and and are forward looking in
23:14and adopt these are are simply going to
23:16be more modern and more productive just
23:17like the companies that were the first
23:18to to do word processing and
23:20spreadsheets we're then the first to do
23:22GUI the first to do networking the first
23:24to use laser printers the first to use
23:26color I mean these are things that come
23:28to define differentiation between
23:30organizations and this it's the speed of
23:32thought it's the speed of
23:33decision-making the speed of
23:34communication and the speed of working
23:36with customers these tools that are out
23:38here are all about solving those
23:39problems they're not problem-free
23:41they're going to create a new set of
23:43problems which is then itself going to
23:45get rolled into new solutions and new
23:47ways of work and that that's just the
23:49fun part about being down here and
23:51seeing all of that stuff at play right
